It’s a disgrace mainly due to the herd culture of its not cool to learn, its a waste of time we won’t get a job anyway, if you try to break away you are ridiculed.
Living in a diverse inner London Borough, it is really striking how ambitious most of the kids at my kids' schools seem to be.
Though Blairism is unfashionable, the London Challenge was an undoubted success. Pity it didn't spread.
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
It's also true that incentives (both positive and negative) to isolate have changed since mid August, is it not ?
Also interesting that Barnard Castle-gate had no discernible impact on compliance.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Is she guilty? No.
The norm is for the announcement to be when they are charged. Are you arguing for them to be anonymous until they are found guilty?
Yes, you should be anonymous until found guilty.
I can respect the idea of that, except that it goes against the principle that justice must be seen.
If trials were held with anonymous accused then that sets a worrying concept. How do you prevent miscarriages of justice with people getting falsely convicted in trials for which their identity was kept secret? If there is a good answer to that then I could agree with you.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Is she guilty? No.
The norm is for the announcement to be when they are charged. Are you arguing for them to be anonymous until they are found guilty?
Yes, you should be anonymous until found guilty.
How do you propose to do that? You'd have to have secret trials for starters.
They do it in other countries.
They do indeed. You also get dictatorshps that abuse secret trials to prosecute dissidents and political opponents. We have a tradition in this country that justice must be seen, I'd be wary of throwing that away.
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
If Trump loses this election, I imagine the GOP will be dropping the Trump brand like a hot potato
The GOP didn't want the Trump brand in 2015/16 but they ended up with it anyway, thanks to Republican primary voters.
36% of registered Republicans believe in QAnon. That might collapse into a seething mass of self-recrimination, or a black woman as VP could energise it. If they think a younger Trumpster will carry on Donald's secret war then it's hard to see the GOP establishment stopping them.
People, especially Americans, like success and dislike failure. If Trump is perceived to be a major failure at the election then that will be it as far as many are concerned.
Remember how much of a hold Corbyn supposedly had on the Labour Party membership? How did his annointed successor do at the following leadership campaign after the 2019 defeat?
People don't like to lose or associate themselves with clear losers.
My American mother-in-law says the same about the American attitude to losers. However, I think the QAnon shenanigans are qualitatively different to our experience of Corbynism and a reorientation to the centre is far from being inevitable.
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
Thanks for coming on!
A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - when someone half a mile away might test +ve.
Also, and I'm sorry but it needs to be said but I think many people are thinking of themselves rather than the greater good which I actually understand.
Going to the pub/wherever where the downside is 14 days inside your own home is a huge disincentive to registration now and compliance previously.
How you motivate/threat/bribe someone who believes themselves to be healthy to accept foregoing their lives and perhaps livelihood for two weeks is a monumental challenge.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Is she guilty? No.
The norm is for the announcement to be when they are charged. Are you arguing for them to be anonymous until they are found guilty?
Yes, you should be anonymous until found guilty.
How do you propose to do that? You'd have to have secret trials for starters.
They do it in other countries.
Not in itself proof of it being a good idea or a bad idea, particularly as that would require assessment of general institutional strength, rule of law, history and more.
When deviating from a core principle one needs to be open to doing so but caution does not seem amiss.
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
Thanks for coming on!
A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - when someone half a mile away might test +ve.
Also, and I'm sorry but it needs to be said but I think many people are thinking of themselves rather than the greater good which I actually understand.
Going to the pub/wherever where the downside is 14 days inside your own home is a huge disincentive to registration now and compliance previously.
How you motivate/threat/bribe someone who believes themselves to be healthy to accept foregoing their lives and perhaps livelihood for two weeks is a monumental challenge.
And that's why those yelling "Sweden" are so off base. They have a sick benefits system that means you lose very little financially by isolating. But that never seems to get a mention by libertarians for some reason.
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
If Trump loses this election, I imagine the GOP will be dropping the Trump brand like a hot potato
The GOP didn't want the Trump brand in 2015/16 but they ended up with it anyway, thanks to Republican primary voters.
36% of registered Republicans believe in QAnon. That might collapse into a seething mass of self-recrimination, or a black woman as VP could energise it. If they think a younger Trumpster will carry on Donald's secret war then it's hard to see the GOP establishment stopping them.
People, especially Americans, like success and dislike failure. If Trump is perceived to be a major failure at the election then that will be it as far as many are concerned.
Remember how much of a hold Corbyn supposedly had on the Labour Party membership? How did his annointed successor do at the following leadership campaign after the 2019 defeat?
People don't like to lose or associate themselves with clear losers.
My American mother-in-law says the same about the American attitude to losers. However, I think the QAnon shenanigans are qualitatively different to our experience of Corbynism and a reorientation to the centre is far from being inevitable.
There is a syndrome of regularly believing that 'this time is different', it rarely is.
QAnon is insane, but I suspect even most supposed-believers in QAnon are just doing it as a perverted 'virtue signal' to say whose side of a divide they're on, they probably don't take it that seriously.
It’s a disgrace mainly due to the herd culture of its not cool to learn, its a waste of time we won’t get a job anyway, if you try to break away you are ridiculed.
Living in a diverse inner London Borough, it is really striking how ambitious most of the kids at my kids' schools seem to be.
Though Blairism is unfashionable, the London Challenge was an undoubted success. Pity it didn't spread.
Yes I think it did help at the margins. But the main reason London schools outperform is the ethnic mix, according to academic research. (I mentioned this on a previous thread and got accused of being an anti white racist, but it is what the academic research suggests. Incidentally, I don't think non-white kids are inherently smarter or better at exams, I just think they are more motivated to achieve academically currently).
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024, early polling has him on 34% to just 3% for Ivanka.
Last time an incumbent president lost after only one term of his party in the Oval Office, Carter in 1980, Carter's VP Mondale was the Democratic nominee against Reagan in 1984.
Plus if the President is re elected and the VP wants to run he normally gets it eg Gore 2000, Bush 41 1988, Humphrey 1968, Nixon 1960 etc
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
It's also true that incentives (both positive and negative) to isolate have changed since mid August, is it not ?
Yes. The situation has changed. It's difficult to do good research at speed(!), but we expect to get more data so we can explore how the situation has developed.
Our central message is not just that adherence to quarantine may be bad. It's that there are problems at every stage: symptom recognition, getting a test, sharing details of contacts. Every step in the chain needs to be working better (and Government and NHS Test & Trace know that).
It’s a disgrace mainly due to the herd culture of its not cool to learn, its a waste of time we won’t get a job anyway, if you try to break away you are ridiculed.
Living in a diverse inner London Borough, it is really striking how ambitious most of the kids at my kids' schools seem to be.
Though Blairism is unfashionable, the London Challenge was an undoubted success. Pity it didn't spread.
Yes I think it did help at the margins. But the main reason London schools outperform is the ethnic mix, according to academic research. (I mentioned this on a previous thread and got accused of being an anti white racist, but it is what the academic research suggests. Incidentally, I don't think non-white kids are inherently smarter or better at exams, I just think they are more motivated to achieve academically currently).
The non-racist bit is important; when a significant number of ambitious pupils from ambitious families move in, it has a positive effect on those around them as well. It so happens that in the context of the UK, families migrating to the UK from elsewhere are, on average, ambitious. Hence something that works a lot in inner London, less in outer London, and often doesn't work in the sticks. The attempts to replicate London Challenge nationwide haven't really worked.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Come off it. It was obviously directed at someone.
Yes, the Tory Party. They lie constantly.
But what prompted you to say it this time? It was in reply to a comment where I (a Tory) said he wasn't charged, someone else said he was, then you reply sayig "Tories lying again?". Why else would you say that if it wasn't directed at me?
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Come off it. It was obviously directed at someone.
Yes, the Tory Party. They lie constantly.
But what prompted you to say it this time? It was in reply to a comment where I (a Tory) said he wasn't charged, someone else said he was, then you reply sayig "Tories lying again?". Why else would you say that if it wasn't directed at me?
It was in response to another user, I don't check every long comment chain I respond to.
It’s a disgrace mainly due to the herd culture of its not cool to learn, its a waste of time we won’t get a job anyway, if you try to break away you are ridiculed.
Living in a diverse inner London Borough, it is really striking how ambitious most of the kids at my kids' schools seem to be.
Though Blairism is unfashionable, the London Challenge was an undoubted success. Pity it didn't spread.
Yes I think it did help at the margins. But the main reason London schools outperform is the ethnic mix, according to academic research. (I mentioned this on a previous thread and got accused of being an anti white racist, but it is what the academic research suggests. Incidentally, I don't think non-white kids are inherently smarter or better at exams, I just think they are more motivated to achieve academically currently).
The non-racist bit is important; when a significant number of ambitious pupils from ambitious families move in, it has a positive effect on those around them as well. It so happens that in the context of the UK, families migrating to the UK from elsewhere are, on average, ambitious. Hence something that works a lot in inner London, less in outer London, and often doesn't work in the sticks. The attempts to replicate London Challenge nationwide haven't really worked.
If it was just about ethnic mix, why was the London Challenge needed in the first place?
Newly-elected Labour MP Claudia Webbe claims she is 'innocent of any wrongdoing' and vows to 'vigorously' defend herself after being charged with harassing a woman for almost two years.
Newly-elected Labour MP Claudia Webbe claims she is 'innocent of any wrongdoing' and vows to 'vigorously' defend herself after being charged with harassing a woman for almost two years.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
So which Tory involved in this conversation was it about then? Or did it have nothing to do with this conversation despite quoting someone in this conversation when you said it?
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024, early polling has him on 34% to just 3% for Ivanka.
Last time an incumbent president lost after only one term of his party in the Oval Office, Carter in 1980, Carter's VP Mondale was the Democratic nominee against Reagan in 1984.
Plus if the President is re elected and the VP wants to run he normally gets it eg Gore 2000, Bush 41 1988, Humphrey 1968, Nixon 1960 etc
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
So which Tory involved in this conversation was it about then? Or did it have nothing to do with this conversation despite quoting someone in this conversation when you said it?
It was in response to the user it was in response to. Rob was in the chain but I don't read every chain I respond to.
Try this, quote a long comment chain and say something, it doesn't automatically apply to a random user a few comments back.
I didn't even know Rob was a Tory, it wasn't aimed at him
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
It's also true that incentives (both positive and negative) to isolate have changed since mid August, is it not ?
Yes. The situation has changed. It's difficult to do good research at speed(!), but we expect to get more data so we can explore how the situation has developed.
Our central message is not just that adherence to quarantine may be bad. It's that there are problems at every stage: symptom recognition, getting a test, sharing details of contacts. Every step in the chain needs to be working better (and Government and NHS Test & Trace know that).
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
A bizarre thing to say then. The Tories weren't involved in this conversation at all thus far.
The Tories lie constantly and they lied about this, it made sense to me.
Except they didn't, because he hasn't been charged. lol
As was pointed out above, he has been charged - so they did lie.
It's now a he said, she said. Why do you instantly believe them and not me? I've searched for any new articles saying an MP has been charged, and I could not find any. Plenty saying someone had been arrested though.
I co-wrote that study. It is not our conclusion that "[w]e are pretty much ungovernable". We argue that we need better communications about what to do and better support for people to do what we want them to do.
Also, these are preliminary conclusions in a preprint. We're still going through a formal peer review process. We're still looking into the data.
It's also true that incentives (both positive and negative) to isolate have changed since mid August, is it not ?
Also interesting that Barnard Castle-gate had no discernible impact on compliance.
We see a Barnard Castle blip in a lot of the polling data we have, as similarly with the Lancet paper by my UCL colleagues in another department. People definitely noticed. But, no, we didn't find evidence that it impacted on these behaviours.
My guess would be that people's faith in government took a hit, but that people's faith in public health messaging/the health service was little affected.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
A bizarre thing to say then. The Tories weren't involved in this conversation at all thus far.
The Tories lie constantly and they lied about this, it made sense to me.
What lie have "the Tories" made about this? They've not even been in the conversation as far as I can tell.
Cicero seems to have got their facts wrong and mistakenly claimed someone was charged (which I don't believe is right and has been challenged) I don't believe Cicero was trying to lie and other than that I can't see anything that could be called a lie.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
A bizarre thing to say then. The Tories weren't involved in this conversation at all thus far.
The Tories lie constantly and they lied about this, it made sense to me.
Except they didn't, because he hasn't been charged. lol
As was pointed out above, he has been charged - so they did lie.
It's now a he said, she said. Why do you instantly believe them and not me? I've searched for any new articles saying an MP has been charged, and I could not find any. Plenty saying someone had been arrested though.
I don't not believe you, I just said the Tories lied, which they did
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024, early polling has him on 34% to just 3% for Ivanka.
Last time an incumbent president lost after only one term of his party in the Oval Office, Carter in 1980, Carter's VP Mondale was the Democratic nominee against Reagan in 1984.
Plus if the President is re elected and the VP wants to run he normally gets it eg Gore 2000, Bush 41 1988, Humphrey 1968, Nixon 1960 etc
Not if he loses the Arkansas Senate race in November if it is a Democratic landslide
If it's a Democratic landslide, that results in the Republicans losing Arkansas, then I'm not convinced the Republican Party will be keen to elect anyone associated with the Trump regime.
Carter-Mondale lost every state in 1980 to Reagan-Bush except Georgia, Hawaii, Minnesota, West Virginia, Maryland and DC.
In 1984 the Democrats still nominated Mondale anyway
Because they knew they would lose, and therefore those with ambition didn't stand. (See also 1996, for the reverse)
Look, it's possible that Pence stands. It's possible that Don Jr or Ivanka stand. It's possible that one of those three win.
But I think anyone interested in making money on this market would be laying all three while cackling and counting their profits.
So basically you are saying you expect Trump to lose in November but a Republican to win in 2024 and beat President Biden (or conceivably by then VP Harris who would run for his second term) with the GOP candidate not being Vice President Pence nor called Trump, which is quite a call
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
If Trump loses this election, I imagine the GOP will be dropping the Trump brand like a hot potato
The GOP didn't want the Trump brand in 2015/16 but they ended up with it anyway, thanks to Republican primary voters.
36% of registered Republicans believe in QAnon. That might collapse into a seething mass of self-recrimination, or a black woman as VP could energise it. If they think a younger Trumpster will carry on Donald's secret war then it's hard to see the GOP establishment stopping them.
People, especially Americans, like success and dislike failure. If Trump is perceived to be a major failure at the election then that will be it as far as many are concerned.
Remember how much of a hold Corbyn supposedly had on the Labour Party membership? How did his annointed successor do at the following leadership campaign after the 2019 defeat?
People don't like to lose or associate themselves with clear losers.
My American mother-in-law says the same about the American attitude to losers. However, I think the QAnon shenanigans are qualitatively different to our experience of Corbynism and a reorientation to the centre is far from being inevitable.
Speaking as a Corbynite, I partly supported him because I like him, partly because of many of the policies, and partly out of loyalty. The first part wasn't especially transferable to RLB, and we have a sort of assurance from Starmer that he's not going to throw all the policies overboard (and nobody expects him simply to photocopy the 2017/2019 manifestos).
I don't see much resemblance to QAnon, who seem a distinct bunch of weirdos with little connection to Trump or anyone else. If Trump is perceived by his supporters to have cheated, I doubt if most will then flock to QAnon, though they may well cut up rough in other ways (as Democrats will if Trump seems to cheat his way to election).
It's a pretty safe Labour seat, albeit less safe than it was
Webbe was imposed on the CLP by the-then Corbyn-run NEC. She was a very unpopular choice locally. If she does have to stand down, the members will presumablt get to choose who they want this time.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
A bizarre thing to say then. The Tories weren't involved in this conversation at all thus far.
The Tories lie constantly and they lied about this, it made sense to me.
Except they didn't, because he hasn't been charged. lol
As was pointed out above, he has been charged - so they did lie.
It's now a he said, she said. Why do you instantly believe them and not me? I've searched for any new articles saying an MP has been charged, and I could not find any. Plenty saying someone had been arrested though.
I don't not believe you, I just said the Tories lied, which they did
So they didn't lie, because he has not been charged. Unless you can supply evidence to the contrary.
How come the identity of this MP has been released and the Tory MP not? How is that fair?
She has been charged, the other hasn't?
Actually He *has* been charged.
Tories lying again? I am shocked
No, I wasn't lying, and I don't think I've ever intentionally lied here.
I didn't accuse you of lying.
Who were you accusing of lying again then?
The Tories...
Which Tories?
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
It wasn't aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
A bizarre thing to say then. The Tories weren't involved in this conversation at all thus far.
The Tories lie constantly and they lied about this, it made sense to me.
Except they didn't, because he hasn't been charged. lol
As was pointed out above, he has been charged - so they did lie.
But "The Tories" haven't said he wasn't charged. Rob said he wasn't charged.
Cicero claimed that he was, but there seems to be no evidence of that. News reports refer to him as having been arrested and released on Police bail which is a completely different thing to being charged!
If you think he's been charged then please can you give a link to a news report about that?
Some heavy assumptions in that article expressed as if fact. Particularly the "herd immunity" canard. We don't know if, and certainly not for how long, anyone is immune. So we don't know whether it is a thing. He then says we should treat it like flu. Which we don't have herd immunity against. He asserts the "virus is weakest in the Summer" as a fact. I give you Arizona. Amongst others.
Some heavy assumptions in that article expressed as if fact. Particularly the "herd immunity" canard. We don't know if, and certainly not for how long, anyone is immune. So we don't know whether it is a thing. He then says we should treat it like flu. Which we don't have herd immunity against. He asserts the "virus is weakest in the Summer" as a fact. I give you Arizona. Amongst others.
In any case I don't really feel I share a way of life with dandy wannabe and blacked up dimwit Sir Des, so he can Foxtrot Oscar.
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024, early polling has him on 34% to just 3% for Ivanka.
Last time an incumbent president lost after only one term of his party in the Oval Office, Carter in 1980, Carter's VP Mondale was the Democratic nominee against Reagan in 1984.
Plus if the President is re elected and the VP wants to run he normally gets it eg Gore 2000, Bush 41 1988, Humphrey 1968, Nixon 1960 etc
There is a Libertarian candidate who will likely pick up most of the Democratic vote and could pick up plenty of never Trump Republicans too
There'll be enough Democrats that will write-in a candidate rather than vote for a Libertarian that Cotton's re-election is the nearest thing to a rock-solid certainty there can be this cycle.
Oh well, she'll just have to wait until 2024 to get the Trump Party endorsement. GOP have lost it totally.
Whatever happens in November we might be looking at Ivanka vs Kamala next cycle.
If Trump loses this election, I imagine the GOP will be dropping the Trump brand like a hot potato
The GOP didn't want the Trump brand in 2015/16 but they ended up with it anyway, thanks to Republican primary voters.
36% of registered Republicans believe in QAnon. That might collapse into a seething mass of self-recrimination, or a black woman as VP could energise it. If they think a younger Trumpster will carry on Donald's secret war then it's hard to see the GOP establishment stopping them.
People, especially Americans, like success and dislike failure. If Trump is perceived to be a major failure at the election then that will be it as far as many are concerned.
Remember how much of a hold Corbyn supposedly had on the Labour Party membership? How did his annointed successor do at the following leadership campaign after the 2019 defeat?
People don't like to lose or associate themselves with clear losers.
My American mother-in-law says the same about the American attitude to losers. However, I think the QAnon shenanigans are qualitatively different to our experience of Corbynism and a reorientation to the centre is far from being inevitable.
There is a syndrome of regularly believing that 'this time is different', it rarely is.
QAnon is insane, but I suspect even most supposed-believers in QAnon are just doing it as a perverted 'virtue signal' to say whose side of a divide they're on, they probably don't take it that seriously.
Well, sometimes things are different. Trump's presidency has been very different.
I don't necessarily expect a younger Trumpster to carry on the brand, but I do think that the Republican march to the extremes that kicked off in earnest with Newt Gingrich in the 90s is a trend that looks hard to stop.
QAnon, like the tea party and the birthers before, is one manifestation of this, and a sign of how it's spiralled out of GOP control.
I would like to think that a Biden victory would be the start of that tide being turned, but I've been disappointed before.
Should go down well with C4's large US viewership.
You have to wonder why they are even allocating resources for this. It's not as if the US doesn't have it's own excellent set of investigative reporters.
Won't that just turn the crowd scenes at 10 o'clock into crowd scenes at 9 o'clock? No standing in bars, table service only, would be a better way to go. Sanctions against bar owners are easier to apply than sanctions against customers.
Won't that just turn the crowd scenes at 10 o'clock into crowd scenes at 9 o'clock? No standing in bars, table service only, would be a better way to go. Sanctions against bar owners are easier to apply than sanctions against customers.
Should go down well with C4's large US viewership.
You have to wonder why they are even allocating resources for this. It's not as if the US doesn't have it's own excellent set of investigative reporters.
I wonder if Trump's enemies are in danger of overkill here. But we shall see.
Should go down well with C4's large US viewership.
You have to wonder why they are even allocating resources for this. It's not as if the US doesn't have it's own excellent set of investigative reporters.
They have been slowly increasing the US election coverage each week.
It stars with Project Veritas so best safe to assume it is false.
Why?
"Project Veritas is an American right-wing activist group. The group uses undercover techniques to supposedly reveal liberal bias and corruption and is known for producing deceptively edited videos about media organizations and left-leaning groups. In a 2018 book on propaganda and disinformation in U.S. politics, three Harvard University scholars refer to Project Veritas as a "right-wing disinformation outfit"."
It stars with Project Veritas so best safe to assume it is false.
Why?
"Project Veritas is an American right-wing activist group. The group uses undercover techniques to supposedly reveal liberal bias and corruption and is known for producing deceptively edited videos about media organizations and left-leaning groups. In a 2018 book on propaganda and disinformation in U.S. politics, three Harvard University scholars refer to Project Veritas as a "right-wing disinformation outfit"."
That Wikipedia entry doesn't exactly come over as unbiased. 'Supposedly' (quite apart from its inelegant position in the sentence) is not an appropriate word - 'avowedly' would have been better. And why are they using 'right wing' to refer to this organisaton, but the softer phrase 'left leaning' to refer to left wing organisations? A citation is needed for 'deceptively edited', and as for 'three Harvard University Scholars' - who exactly cares what three Americans who managed to get into university think? They hadn't even graduated.
I've never heard of this organisation in my life, but I approve of them more after reading that Wiki entry than I did before.
It stars with Project Veritas so best safe to assume it is false.
Why?
"Project Veritas is an American right-wing activist group. The group uses undercover techniques to supposedly reveal liberal bias and corruption and is known for producing deceptively edited videos about media organizations and left-leaning groups. In a 2018 book on propaganda and disinformation in U.S. politics, three Harvard University scholars refer to Project Veritas as a "right-wing disinformation outfit"."
That Wikipedia entry doesn't exactly come over as unbiased. 'Supposedly' (quite apart from its inelegant position in the sentence) is not an appropriate word - 'avowedly' would have been better. And why are they using 'right wing' to refer to this organisaton, but the softer phrase 'left leaning' to refer to left wing organisations? A citation is needed for 'deceptively edited', and as for 'three Harvard University Scholars' - who exactly cares what three Americans who managed to get into university think? They hadn't even graduated.
I've never heard of this organisation in my life, but I approve of them more after reading that Wiki entry than I did before.
What a load of bollocks. "I'm definitely going to believe this dodgy outfit because someone used the word supposedly"
Just be honest and believe what you want to believe instead of coming up with feeble excuses.
It’s a disgrace mainly due to the herd culture of its not cool to learn, its a waste of time we won’t get a job anyway, if you try to break away you are ridiculed.
Living in a diverse inner London Borough, it is really striking how ambitious most of the kids at my kids' schools seem to be.
Though Blairism is unfashionable, the London Challenge was an undoubted success. Pity it didn't spread.
Yes I think it did help at the margins. But the main reason London schools outperform is the ethnic mix, according to academic research. (I mentioned this on a previous thread and got accused of being an anti white racist, but it is what the academic research suggests. Incidentally, I don't think non-white kids are inherently smarter or better at exams, I just think they are more motivated to achieve academically currently).
The non-racist bit is important; when a significant number of ambitious pupils from ambitious families move in, it has a positive effect on those around them as well. It so happens that in the context of the UK, families migrating to the UK from elsewhere are, on average, ambitious. Hence something that works a lot in inner London, less in outer London, and often doesn't work in the sticks. The attempts to replicate London Challenge nationwide haven't really worked.
If it was just about ethnic mix, why was the London Challenge needed in the first place?
Sorry missed this- was doing a school run. Historically, education in London has been a problem- but for a long time, London wasn't a desirable place to live anyway; families who could moved out to the Home Counties. London Challenge came about to try and solve the problems of London schools. The global city as a place to live thing took off about the same time. So it's tricky to prise apart cause and effect. And more attractive schools probably kept educationaly-aware families in London, so there's a virtuous circle. But looking at the exact times and places where improvements happened, they're more consistent with demographics than interventions.
Comments
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1310575302259638272
If trials were held with anonymous accused then that sets a worrying concept. How do you prevent miscarriages of justice with people getting falsely convicted in trials for which their identity was kept secret? If there is a good answer to that then I could agree with you.
A friend went to Kew Gardens the other day and was asked to register. Kew Gardens - when someone half a mile away might test +ve.
Also, and I'm sorry but it needs to be said but I think many people are thinking of themselves rather than the greater good which I actually understand.
Going to the pub/wherever where the downside is 14 days inside your own home is a huge disincentive to registration now and compliance previously.
How you motivate/threat/bribe someone who believes themselves to be healthy to accept foregoing their lives and perhaps livelihood for two weeks is a monumental challenge.
When deviating from a core principle one needs to be open to doing so but caution does not seem amiss.
Excellent and long (130 plus posts) thread on vaccines;
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310372301314101250
to...
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310435247243304962
They have a sick benefits system that means you lose very little financially by isolating.
But that never seems to get a mention by libertarians for some reason.
QAnon is insane, but I suspect even most supposed-believers in QAnon are just doing it as a perverted 'virtue signal' to say whose side of a divide they're on, they probably don't take it that seriously.
https://twitter.com/DesmondSwayne/status/1308442871490543618
Our central message is not just that adherence to quarantine may be bad. It's that there are problems at every stage: symptom recognition, getting a test, sharing details of contacts. Every step in the chain needs to be working better (and Government and NHS Test & Trace know that).
It was said in reply to a coversation with Rob. I certainly read it as aimed at Rob.
If Rob believes it was, I can only apologise for any confusion caused.
I can only apologise for the confusion.
Newly-elected Labour MP Claudia Webbe claims she is 'innocent of any wrongdoing' and vows to 'vigorously' defend herself after being charged with harassing a woman for almost two years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8781217/Labour-MP-Claudia-Webbe-charged-harassing-woman.html
Try this, quote a long comment chain and say something, it doesn't automatically apply to a random user a few comments back.
I didn't even know Rob was a Tory, it wasn't aimed at him
My guess would be that people's faith in government took a hit, but that people's faith in public health messaging/the health service was little affected.
Cicero seems to have got their facts wrong and mistakenly claimed someone was charged (which I don't believe is right and has been challenged) I don't believe Cicero was trying to lie and other than that I can't see anything that could be called a lie.
I don't see much resemblance to QAnon, who seem a distinct bunch of weirdos with little connection to Trump or anyone else. If Trump is perceived by his supporters to have cheated, I doubt if most will then flock to QAnon, though they may well cut up rough in other ways (as Democrats will if Trump seems to cheat his way to election).
Cicero claimed that he was, but there seems to be no evidence of that. News reports refer to him as having been arrested and released on Police bail which is a completely different thing to being charged!
If you think he's been charged then please can you give a link to a news report about that?
Particularly the "herd immunity" canard.
We don't know if, and certainly not for how long, anyone is immune.
So we don't know whether it is a thing.
He then says we should treat it like flu.
Which we don't have herd immunity against.
He asserts the "virus is weakest in the Summer" as a fact. I give you Arizona.
Amongst others.
Police struggling to enforce curfew" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-call-to-ban-alcohol-sales-from-9pm-9vwwmljcp
NY Post: check
Conclusion: BS
Bye Trump
I don't necessarily expect a younger Trumpster to carry on the brand, but I do think that the Republican march to the extremes that kicked off in earnest with Newt Gingrich in the 90s is a trend that looks hard to stop.
QAnon, like the tea party and the birthers before, is one manifestation of this, and a sign of how it's spiralled out of GOP control.
I would like to think that a Biden victory would be the start of that tide being turned, but I've been disappointed before.
2043 with Paul Dacre running OFCOM
No standing in bars, table service only, would be a better way to go.
Sanctions against bar owners are easier to apply than sanctions against customers.
Johnson should resign
The government is done for (whether Boris Johnson resigns or not)
I cannot see Biden taking the state, but polls like these will push Trumpton on to the defensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Veritas
I've never heard of this organisation in my life, but I approve of them more after reading that Wiki entry than I did before.
Serial tweets are a nightmare to read.
New thread.
Just be honest and believe what you want to believe instead of coming up with feeble excuses.
Historically, education in London has been a problem- but for a long time, London wasn't a desirable place to live anyway; families who could moved out to the Home Counties.
London Challenge came about to try and solve the problems of London schools. The global city as a place to live thing took off about the same time. So it's tricky to prise apart cause and effect. And more attractive schools probably kept educationaly-aware families in London, so there's a virtuous circle. But looking at the exact times and places where improvements happened, they're more consistent with demographics than interventions.