Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage – politic

1235

Comments

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DavidL said:

    Do you really believe that if Labour was in power rather than trying to be heard they would be spending less? I don't.
    The question of whether anyone should be spending less in the current crisis (and, no mistake, that's exactly what it is) is not straightforward. The key, for all the flack he got for it, is what is a viable job?

    In the next 5 years is working in a bar/nightclub that earns all its profits after midnight likely to be "viable"? Are football and sports clubs dependent upon gate money likely to be viable? Are airlines, exhibition centres, large shopping centres? It's seriously tricky. So much of our economy is dependent on other economic activity to generate business. There are massive systemic risks here. I am conventionally a bit of a fiscal hawk but the general thrust of government policy seems right to me, whatever quibbles there are about some of the details.

    I do think, however, that we are running out of road. If things have not picked up substantially by March we will likely have reached the limits of what the government can do and it will be devil take the hindmost with any restrictions that impact on economic activity being lifted. We simply cannot go on like this.
    The seismic political shift of a move like that cannot be underestimated. For decades politicians have told voters that only money constrains what the state can do for you. An admission there are limits would be massive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    I'd ask why pubs don't have a 'must order drinks & food rule', but these places would clearly just insist a packet of peanuts is chucked in with each round.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Dura_Ace said:

    SEAL Team 6 was disbanded in 1987.
    Yebbut when they reformed they nearly pulled off the threat to launch rockets filled with VX at San Francisco.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited September 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd ask why pubs don't have a 'must order drinks & food rule', but these places would clearly just insist a packet of peanuts is chucked in with each round.
    You could say order of "cooked / hot food" is required, but then we might get into Pasty Tax territory again about what legally is hot food.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188

    The seismic political shift of a move like that cannot be underestimated. For decades politicians have told voters that only money constrains what the state can do for you. An admission there are limits would be massive.
    I see the seismic shift in the other direction to be honest. For years the Tories complained that Labour's ambitions, however worthy, were unaffordable and ruinous. What is affordable, given the current needs, is eye opening and may make such arguments unstateable in the future (even if they are more likely to be true because of the horrendous national debts).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,123
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    I think you'll find, again to his credit, that @HYUFD has been scrupulously polite, on topic, and thoughtful and has refrained from the personal abuse that typifies so many posters, myself not excluded.

    At his next selection meeting there will be no posts to show he is not enthusiastically loyal to whichever Cons leader happens to be in No.10.
    Fair enough. I'd still wager there is enough uncaring, callous, party political self interested and plain fruitcake nutty stuff in his stream to disqualify him. All that stuff about the poor and broth, for a start.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    DavidL said:

    Do you really believe that if Labour was in power rather than trying to be heard they would be spending less? I don't.
    The question of whether anyone should be spending less in the current crisis (and, no mistake, that's exactly what it is) is not straightforward. The key, for all the flack he got for it, is what is a viable job?

    In the next 5 years is working in a bar/nightclub that earns all its profits after midnight likely to be "viable"? Are football and sports clubs dependent upon gate money likely to be viable? Are airlines, exhibition centres, large shopping centres? It's seriously tricky. So much of our economy is dependent on other economic activity to generate business. There are massive systemic risks here. I am conventionally a bit of a fiscal hawk but the general thrust of government policy seems right to me, whatever quibbles there are about some of the details.

    I do think, however, that we are running out of road. If things have not picked up substantially by March we will likely have reached the limits of what the government can do and it will be devil take the hindmost with any restrictions that impact on economic activity being lifted. We simply cannot go on like this.
    Regrettably. I saw a comment about the latest measures slowing unemployment rises not preventing it, and all I could think was surely we don't believe a government has the power to simply prevent unemployment during major economic hits?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    The seismic political shift of a move like that cannot be underestimated. For decades politicians have told voters that only money constrains what the state can do for you. An admission there are limits would be massive.
    This is the debate that @Philip_Thompson and I have had frequently. My view is that *for whatever reason* once you let the fiscally irresponsible genie out of the bottle you can't get it back in.

    Oh but it's a life or death matter, Covid, isn't it? Well yes, but so is the Health Service and homelessness and general poverty and...and...

    Cons can't stand up in parliament and say to Labour that they will overspend because that ship has sailed.
  • This is the problem Cummings has - if you watch the video in full you'll see why it's obvious:

    youtu.be/YPDmNaEG8v4

    As anybody desperate for the loo knows, when you have a demanding as*hole around, your choices narrow... :D:D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    You could say order of "cooked / hot food" is required, but then we might get into Pasty Tax territory again about what legally is hot food.
    Unfortunately 'Use a bit of common sense' when it comes to the virus is impossible to put precisely into law.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,943

    Are you just naming every Rugby League town? 🤣

    I believe Warrington has got more population than the two of them combined.
    Does it really. Wakefield gives the impression, to a casual visitor, of being bigger. Maybe because it was the capital of West Riding.
    St Helens is not fit for any purpose.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited September 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    No, that doesn't work, because this is all on the record. Go back and to link to the posts you are talking about. You are, as a matter of fact, completely wrong about my views. I think this is now a question of strict regulations vs mass graves, and I am against mass graves.

    What you are saying is exactly equivalent to saying Don't have an election in 2024, it will just let a lot of numpties in who want to ruin the country. This is a point where process is about 1m times more important than substance. It is entirely characteristic of Tufty Club thinking not to be able to recognise that.
    We have finally found agreement in our opposition to mass graves. Alleluia!

    By all means let them have a vote. All it will do is put Parliament's disunity on display in a fairly counterproductive fashion, but apparently process must triumph over substance, so let's have it.
  • You could say order of "cooked / hot food" is required, but then we might get into Pasty Tax territory again about what legally is hot food.
    Actually there's already a principle with licensing about what is and is not a meal, when it comes to dealing with under 18s.

    A 16 or 17 year old can legally be served beer, wine or cider (no spirits or alcopops) if they are sat in a restaurant eating a "substantial meal" and with an adult. A sandwich or peanuts would not count as a substantial meal.

    That's more for restaurants than nightclubs though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    IanB2 said:

    Fair enough. I'd still wager there is enough uncaring, callous, party political self interested and plain fruitcake nutty stuff in his stream to disqualify him. All that stuff about the poor and broth, for a start.
    There was nothing inaccurate about stating most people who get Covid will recover, that remains the case today and of course Tory and rightwing voters are less supportive of an extremely restrictive lockdown anyway.

    I don't think I have said anything about the poor the average Tory voter would disagree with either
  • 1. Is the party going to tax me more or less than the alternatives?
    2. Is the party in favour of or opposed to cultural wokery?
    3. Does the party have a realistic chance of winning?

    If an alternative to the Conservatives ever arises that is lower-tax, lower-woke, and a serious challenger for power, they will be a strong contender for my vote.

    I don't expect to see one any time soon though.
    Fair enough, that's why you're a Tory and probably always will be. Here's my alternative decision tree in direct response to yours:

    1. Is the party going to provide world-class public services, financed by a system of progressive taxation where all pay their fair share?
    2. Is the party in favour of encouraging tolerance, respect and fairness for all, and promoting genuine equality of opportunity?
    3. When the party wins, does it govern in the interest of everybody, and not just its own voters?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,943
    edited September 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd ask why pubs don't have a 'must order drinks & food rule', but these places would clearly just insist a packet of peanuts is chucked in with each

    Deleted
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Alistair said:

    In that Emerson poll 17 % of respondents are believers in QANON.

    America is fucked.

    Any bets on the first PB QAnon apologist to break cover?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DavidL said:

    I see the seismic shift in the other direction to be honest. For years the Tories complained that Labour's ambitions, however worthy, were unaffordable and ruinous. What is affordable, given the current needs, is eye opening and may make such arguments unstateable in the future (even if they are more likely to be true because of the horrendous national debts).
    We'll see I guess but for me the covid episode has shown voters that its perfectly possible for the state to spend a massive amount of their money to little effect. Indeed, to make things worse.

    It hasn't boosted faith in big government, rather the opposite. Maybe labour, sensibly, are picking up on that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    I think you'll find, again to his credit, that @HYUFD has been scrupulously polite, on topic, and thoughtful and has refrained from the personal abuse that typifies so many posters, myself not excluded.

    At his next selection meeting there will be no posts to show he is not enthusiastically loyal to whichever Cons leader happens to be in No.10.
    Being impressively on message is a bonus to parties even though it frustrates everyone else and can be a bit rude - Iain Dale makes the point in his latest book that its one reason the party likes Patel so much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    edited September 2020

    You do realise that by the time that becomes relevant we will be out of the EU with either a deal or no deal and Farage will be long distant bad memory
    We are already out of the EU but our future relationship with it is still to be determined.

    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit with the EU as is now likely and that goes well then Boris will be safe and likely win the next election anyway.

    If not however then just changing the face at the top will not make a difference, Sunak will have to shift to an EEA style deal with the EU to win back Remainers and soft Brexiteers the Tories will have lost to Labour and the LDs but at the risk of losing hardcore Leavers back to Farage and the Brexit Party
  • IanB2 said:

    Fair enough. I'd still wager there is enough uncaring, callous, party political self interested and plain fruitcake nutty stuff in his stream to disqualify him. All that stuff about the poor and broth, for a start.
    Barking madness does not disqualify you from politics (look at the HoC and the Cabinet), but being rude....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    Fair enough. I'd still wager there is enough uncaring, callous, party political self interested and plain fruitcake nutty stuff in his stream to disqualify him. All that stuff about the poor and broth, for a start.
    He also responds courteously to abuse, but I do feel his realpolitik is sometimes a bit too real to be said out loud - governments govern solely to please and add to their core support, and so on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    IshmaelZ said:

    He also responds courteously to abuse, but I do feel his realpolitik is sometimes a bit too real to be said out loud - governments govern solely to please and add to their core support, and so on.
    I also said in the belief their policies benefit all however they do not have to be supported by all
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    TOPPING said:

    This is the debate that @Philip_Thompson and I have had frequently. My view is that *for whatever reason* once you let the fiscally irresponsible genie out of the bottle you can't get it back in.

    Oh but it's a life or death matter, Covid, isn't it? Well yes, but so is the Health Service and homelessness and general poverty and...and...

    Cons can't stand up in parliament and say to Labour that they will overspend because that ship has sailed.
    I think the case remains strong that in more normal times you don't apply emergency level measures, like Trump using emergency funds for his wall, but certainly it would be a tougher sell.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    I also said in the belief their policies benefit all however they do not have to be supported by all
    OK sorry if I misrepresented you.
  • One in 500 people in homes in England had Covid-19 in the week of 19 September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

    This is up from one in 900 reported last week (nearly doubled) and equates to 103,600 people.

    The ONS estimates that there were 9,600 new infections per day in the same week, up 60% on the 6,000 cases per day reported in the previous week.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,943
    TOPPING said:

    This is the debate that @Philip_Thompson and I have had frequently. My view is that *for whatever reason* once you let the fiscally irresponsible genie out of the bottle you can't get it back in.

    Oh but it's a life or death matter, Covid, isn't it? Well yes, but so is the Health Service and homelessness and general poverty and...and...

    Cons can't stand up in parliament and say to Labour that they will overspend because that ship has sailed.
    Indeed. Homelessness being a key example. We can't afford it. Well we did, over a weekend almost, when we thought they were going to infect everyone.
    We don't want to afford it is a different argument entirely.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    This is the debate that @Philip_Thompson and I have had frequently. My view is that *for whatever reason* once you let the fiscally irresponsible genie out of the bottle you can't get it back in.

    Oh but it's a life or death matter, Covid, isn't it? Well yes, but so is the Health Service and homelessness and general poverty and...and...

    Cons can't stand up in parliament and say to Labour that they will overspend because that ship has sailed.
    Its been pointed out on here, however, that it would have taken a politician of immense fortitude to stand up to the media firestorm of March and April. Saying 'there's only so much we can afford' when hundreds were dying every day would have...well...Im not even sure the blessed St Margaret (PBUH) would have done it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited September 2020
    Here we go again....surely the morons still have cupboards of dried pasta left from March?

    Tesco, the UK's biggest supermarket, is to stop customers from bulk ordering flour, pasta, toilet rolls and anti-bacterial wipes to prevent a repeat of shortages earlier this year.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,364
    edited September 2020

    We have finally found agreement in our opposition to mass graves. Alleluia!

    By all means let them have a vote. All it will do is put Parliament's disunity on display in a fairly counterproductive fashion, but apparently process must triumph over substance, so let's have it.
    Erm... I'm probably missing something, but doesn't the argument "putting Parliament's disunity on display is counterproductive" lead to a fairly dark place?

    After all, in a democracy, shouldn't we discuss things a bit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    OllyT said:

    Any bets on the first PB QAnon apologist to break cover?
    it would have to be carefully to be convincing. No sudden admissions, but a slow drio from 'I don't say I agree with them but x is a problem' to 'I am a qanon backer'.

    I forget who but someone did decry the vicious mockery toward the conspiracy theorists even though the theory being mocked was that Clinton is a murderous child rapist.
  • novanova Posts: 754
    isam said:

    Hate to say I told you so, but...

    I said many times that when the economy is mullered after the lockdown measures, it will be those criticising Boris for not locking down hard enough who will be criticisng him for the economy being mullered. And so it has come to pass
    I'm not particularly concerned about the money being spent, as there's a strong argument that money spent keeping businesses alive will prevent an even greater catastrophe later, however...

    There's a clear case that if we'd locked down earlier/harder there would have been much less impact on the economy, with:

    A significantly lower peak.
    Less pressure for the NHS to shut all other services down.
    Less pressure on the NHS to decant untested patients into care homes.
    A more manageable peak means that not everyone is in crisis mode, leaving more time/space to prepare for easing lockdown/getting schools prepared/getting test & trace working.
    Leaving lockdown with much lower/ more manageable numbers.

    I doubt any govt would have got things totally right, and my opinion of Boris is pretty low, but I am genuinely surprised at just how short term and reactive everything seems to be.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    dixiedean said:

    Does it really. Wakefield gives the impression, to a casual visitor, of being bigger. Maybe because it was the capital of West Riding.
    St Helens is not fit for any purpose.
    Making glass?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324

    It's still the widely used moniker - and this was to a layman audience: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEAL_Team_Six
    I think his general point is more or less accurate and it is applied to greater or lesser degrees in other parts of the military. We chopped some very good stick and rudder pilots when I was instructing on the Hawk for "trust" issues.
  • isam said:

    Ed's exceeded David Cameron's , I wouldn't agree that was a good marker of what was going on

    If recent (and 2010-2015 is recent) polls are so demonstrably wrong, why place such faith in the current ones?
    Because they've been right since 2015.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,123
    London has been added to England's Covid-19 watchlist, a group representing the capital's councils says.

    A statement from London Councils says: "It is a stark reminder that now is the time for all Londoners to pull together and take action to keep themselves, their families and their communities safe, and to ensure that London's economy is protected."
  • TOPPING said:

    I think you'll find, again to his credit, that @HYUFD has been scrupulously polite, on topic, and thoughtful and has refrained from the personal abuse that typifies so many posters, myself not excluded.

    At his next selection meeting there will be no posts to show he is not enthusiastically loyal to whichever Cons leader happens to be in No.10.
    Yes I think HYUFD says an awful lot of nonsense but he's always polite in his posts and I enjoy reading them and shouting at the screen.

    He's been far better than me especially at not being abusive.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    We have finally found agreement in our opposition to mass graves. Alleluia!

    By all means let them have a vote. All it will do is put Parliament's disunity on display in a fairly counterproductive fashion, but apparently process must triumph over substance, so let's have it.
    Yes it would be super counter-productive. If only everyone in Parliament agreed with everything the government wanted then it would be far more productive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087

    You're obsessed with "leavers". Most "leavers" are just getting on with their lives and are not obsessed with Brexit still. Just like most "remainers".

    It's just the frothers on both sides who are still obsessed.
    68% of Leavers are now voting Tory, just 19% of Leavers are voting Labour.

    By contrast 54% of Remainers are now voting Labour and just 19% of Remainers are voting Tory.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf

    Brexit continues to define our voting patterns and likely will continue to do so for at least the next decade
  • TOPPING said:

    I think you'll find, again to his credit, that @HYUFD has been scrupulously polite, on topic, and thoughtful and has refrained from the personal abuse that typifies so many posters, myself not excluded.

    At his next selection meeting there will be no posts to show he is not enthusiastically loyal to whichever Cons leader happens to be in No.10.
    Yes, but he still voted Remain, so doesn't that automatically rule him out?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    68% of Leavers are now voting Tory, just 19% of Leavers are voting Labour.

    By contrast 54% of Remainers are now voting Labour and just 19% of Remainers are voting Tory.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf

    Brexit continues to define our voting patterns and likely will continue to do so for at least the next decade
    HYUFD said:

    68% of Leavers are now voting Tory, just 19% of Leavers are voting Labour.

    By contrast 54% of Remainers are now voting Labour and just 19% of Remainers are voting Tory.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf

    Brexit continues to define our voting patterns and likely will continue to do so for at least the next decade
    It’s not brexit itself that will define voting patterns but the underlying beliefs and prejudices held by those groups.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    London has been added to England's Covid-19 watchlist, a group representing the capital's councils says.

    A statement from London Councils says: "It is a stark reminder that now is the time for all Londoners to pull together and take action to keep themselves, their families and their communities safe, and to ensure that London's economy is protected."

    Do we have a figure for London’s per 100,000 infection rate?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    So they were out by a factor of 100% on the stimulus? That's quite shoddy reporting.

    Though I don't see how that can be true. The UK's deficit to date for the past six months is about 12% of pre-COVID GDP but since we weren't running a balanced budget I don't see how that can all be stimulus.
    Our deficit was about 1.4% of GDP trailing 12 months heading into the crisis, but the deficit itself isn't as important as the additional spending which is what we need to look at, that our tax receipts have held up better than expected is good but the additional spending is worth around 12% of GDP at the moment and expected to rise to around 20% of GDP by the end of the year.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324
    OllyT said:

    Any bets on the first PB QAnon apologist to break cover?
    I think there is one unbackable favourite.
  • HYUFD said:

    68% of Leavers are now voting Tory, just 19% of Leavers are voting Labour.

    By contrast 54% of Remainers are now voting Labour and just 19% of Remainers are voting Tory.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf

    Brexit continues to define our voting patterns and likely will continue to do so for at least the next decade
    I think you've got some correlation-does-not-equal-causation issues there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    ONS incidence survey data out.

    ONS calculated infections per day (England) -

    image

    Derived from the above and PHE data on cases - % of cases being found by Pillar 1 & 2 testing -

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    nichomar said:

    Do we have a figure for London’s per 100,000 infection rate?
    London - absolute numbers

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    About to go out to a recently re-opened and usually high quality restaurant. Will report if anything odd.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,766
    edited September 2020
    D'oh
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    kle4 said:

    Being impressively on message is a bonus to parties even though it frustrates everyone else and can be a bit rude - Iain Dale makes the point in his latest book that its one reason the party likes Patel so much.
    Or Hazel Blears, who was for Lab.
  • Four people have been hurt, two of them seriously, in a knife attack in Paris near the former offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, officials say.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    nichomar said:

    Do we have a figure for London’s per 100,000 infection rate?
    Give me five minutes :-)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,326
    HYUFD said:

    68% of Leavers are now voting Tory, just 19% of Leavers are voting Labour.

    By contrast 54% of Remainers are now voting Labour and just 19% of Remainers are voting Tory.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf

    Brexit continues to define our voting patterns and likely will continue to do so for at least the next decade
    So we should be looking for Starmer's immediate resignation not Johnson's? Labour in opposition for perpetuity! Corbyn's dream comes true.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    On the train with someone in a 'Boris Johnson is incompetent' face mask. Sadly it looks like they just wrote it on their mask themselves - I'm surprised not to have seen more manufactured political masks.

    Heres hoping I come across a socialist worker magazine like one of the last times I took a long train.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    I hope that photo was from early in the year. All packed in and almost no masks.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    London - absolute numbers

    image
    Thanks, IANAE but locking down London on those figures, in my mind, would be stupid in the extreme, maybe better (or any) enforcement of existing regulations would be more effective
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227

    Four people have been hurt, two of them seriously, in a knife attack in Paris near the former offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, officials say.

    Unitarian Antifa strikes again.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Yes, but he still voted Remain, so doesn't that automatically rule him out?
    Well yes but I think must be a "don't ask, don't tell" situation at his Branch
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,764
    Alistair said:

    In that Emerson poll 17 % of respondents are believers in QANON.

    America is fucked.

    https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1309335149675413505

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,324
    edited September 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Sean is up already?
    Although it isn't illogical to think far too little was done to contain early on, and and at the same time think the benefit of some of the later lockdown measures is outweighed by the cost.

    Taiwan seems like the model of a country which didn't squander the advantage of being an island.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    TOPPING said:

    Well yes but I think must be a "don't ask, don't tell" situation at his Branch
    We even have a few Tory councillors who voted Remain in Epping Forest, even here over a third of voters voted Remain even if the clear majority of the party are Leavers and of course we all backed getting Brexit done to respect the referendum result
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I think his general point is more or less accurate and it is applied to greater or lesser degrees in other parts of the military. We chopped some very good stick and rudder pilots when I was instructing on the Hawk for "trust" issues.
    It's interesting.

    In Top Gun we're kind of pumped to sympathise with Maverick and not Iceman. But, although Iceman is arrogant, Maverick is actually the high performer who has the trust problem.

    Iceman is basically right about him, as he realises later in the film.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227

    Give me five minutes :-)

    Give me five minutes :-)
    London, scaled to cases per 100K population

    image
  • Nigelb said:
    Its is totally unfathomable that 6 months into this crisis, that a robust airport screening procedure isn't in place in every major Western country. £12bn spent on testing in the UK and still airport arrivals aren't screened, no enforcement, etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087

    So we should be looking for Starmer's immediate resignation not Johnson's? Labour in opposition for perpetuity! Corbyn's dream comes true.
    The last election was about getting Brexit done, that has now been achieved.

    Starmer has now shifted to ensuring that it is done while retaining a close relationship with Europe which is a more winnable platform next time
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    I don't think they would, but the facts are plain to see, Starmer is proposing to suspend or scrap the triple lock and Boris is clinging onto it because it's popular with the Tory base. It's a measure that is going to cost the country tens of billions over the next decade, especially with 2-4% real terms rises for the next couple of years built in. The responsible thing to do is scrap it for at least 3 years and then decide what to do afterwards.

    This is a major on going area of additional spending, it takes money out of the hands of the productive working age population and hands it to the unproductive older population who are wealthier on average. It's a policy that goes against everything the party is supposed to stand for in rewarding hard work and prudence. Boris is absolutely failing the test and Starmer is passing it. The Tory party is completely trashing a very hard won reputation for fiscal responsibility, not because of additional emergency virus spending, but because the PM won't face up to the consequences of it.
    Does it have to be all or nothing? Can't just the 2.5% go or be put on hold?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,764
    edited September 2020

    Its is totally unfathomable that 6 months into this crisis, that a robust airport screening procedure isn't in place in every major Western country. £12bn spent on testing in the UK and still airport arrivals aren't screened, no enforcement, etc.
    Of course even Iceland can't win all the time...

    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1309440614413500416
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    ONS age survey shows why the hospitalisation & death rate has been slow to rise - so far

    image
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,509
    edited September 2020
    DavidL said:

    I see the seismic shift in the other direction to be honest. For years the Tories complained that Labour's ambitions, however worthy, were unaffordable and ruinous. What is affordable, given the current needs, is eye opening and may make such arguments unstateable in the future (even if they are more likely to be true because of the horrendous national debts).
    What has changed is the negative real interest rates the government can borrow at. Given that, it is crazy NOT to run deficits, if there are urgent spending or tax reduction needs. The financial markets are paying the government to take their money (which the government largely printed in the first place).

    All the arguments for fiscal conservatism assume positive real interest rates. But there is no sign of those whatsoever.

    Personally, I would shovel the money at the young and enterprising rather than the old and comfortable, but that's my crazy preference.
  • Its is totally unfathomable that 6 months into this crisis, that a robust airport screening procedure isn't in place in every major Western country. £12bn spent on testing in the UK and still airport arrivals aren't screened, no enforcement, etc.
    That is because the space needed to queue people up at airport arrival has already been allocated to queue lorries departing at Dover because of Brexit :D:D
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    ONS antibody survey - those who've had COVID -

    image
  • isamisam Posts: 41,335

    Because they've been right since 2015.
    No they haven't, why would you say that?!

    They predicted a Remain win, and Leave won, then they predicted a humongous majority for Theresa May, and she ended up with NOM.
  • isam said:

    No they haven't, why would you say that?!

    They predicted a Remain win, and Leave won, then they predicted a humongous majority for Theresa May, and she ended up with NOM.
    Polls predicted a Leave win. Polls predicted a Hung Parliament. Polls predicted a Johnson win.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    IshmaelZ said:

    Does it have to be all or nothing? Can't just the 2.5% go or be put on hold?
    It needs to go, it's completely unaffordable. It has been since it was introduced.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,335
    edited September 2020

    Polls predicted a Leave win. Polls predicted a Hung Parliament. Polls predicted a Johnson win.
    No they didn't, no they didn't and yes they did.

    I am talking about the worthless, pre campaign polls ie the ones we have now.

    Even in 2015 all the late polls pointed to either a Con minority govt or an outright majority. I said so at the time and didnt back my own judgement because everyone on here said NOM was nailed on at 1/10
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324

    It's interesting.

    In Top Gun we're kind of pumped to sympathise with Maverick and not Iceman. But, although Iceman is arrogant, Maverick is actually the high performer who has the trust problem.

    Iceman is basically right about him, as he realises later in the film.
    I've never seen TG, only a few clips from it.

    Tom Cruise is almost certainly too short to get posted to the F-14. The foot to knee measurement requirements were quite tight. If your lower legs were too short you couldn't get full rudder pedal movement, if they were too long you'd be ejecting from the jet without them if good times went bad.
  • isam said:

    No they didn't, no they didn't and yes they did.
    Yes they did. Yes they did. Yes they did.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227

    It's interesting.

    In Top Gun we're kind of pumped to sympathise with Maverick and not Iceman. But, although Iceman is arrogant, Maverick is actually the high performer who has the trust problem.

    Iceman is basically right about him, as he realises later in the film.
    It's interesting how such films are viewed by different audiences.

    From the moment I watched Topgun, in the context of the film Maverick is a crazy dangerous fool. Who may or may not become just dangerous in a different way at the end of the film.

    Bit like A Few Good Men. The idea that some people might sympathise with the Colonel never occurred to me. He is a wack job egoist, who tolerates useless sycophants who screw up dealing with a sick kid, gives illegal orders and then tries to dump it on everyone else - including his only real friend.
  • Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1309335149675413505

    From 'where are the hot undergraduates I never meet?' to 'you are all gonna die motherf*ckers' in twenty years.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited September 2020
    @Malmesbury what's with the huge error bar for the NE? Small sample size?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,335

    Yes they did. Yes they did. Yes they did.
    I am talking about the worthless, pre campaign polls ie the ones we have now.

    Even in 2015 all the late polls pointed to either a Con minority govt or an outright majority. I said so at the time and didnt back my own judgement because everyone on here said NOM was nailed on at 1/10
  • Polls predicted a Leave win. Polls predicted a Hung Parliament. Polls predicted a Johnson win.
    Most final polls predicted a Remain win.

    We only found out later they'd been filtered due to assumptions about turnout and behaviour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,764
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've never seen TG, only a few clips from it.

    Tom Cruise is almost certainly too short to get posted to the F-14. The foot to knee measurement requirements were quite tight. If your lower legs were too short you couldn't get full rudder pedal movement, if they were too long you'd be ejecting from the jet without them if good times went bad.
    On the other hand, the need for speed does seem a tagline you might appreciate ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227

    @Malmesbury what's with the huge error bar for the NE? Small sample size?

    There is no detail on that in the ONS report so far. Probably a function of sample size and number of data points.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,764
    LOL

    Outcry as Spanish councillor uses face mask to fake speech
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/milli-vanilli-moment-valencias-voice-behind-mask-not-what-it-seems
    Valencia councillor criticised after it emerges speech made in perfect English was dubbed
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    There is no detail on that in the ONS report so far. Probably a function of sample size and number of data points.
    Just seems mad that it could be 2.5% or it could be nearly 10%. That's a huge amount of uncertainty.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited September 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've never seen TG, only a few clips from it.
    We used to watch it literally every day in NI. It is the longest karaoke track ever.
  • It's interesting how such films are viewed by different audiences.

    From the moment I watched Topgun, in the context of the film Maverick is a crazy dangerous fool. Who may or may not become just dangerous in a different way at the end of the film.

    Bit like A Few Good Men. The idea that some people might sympathise with the Colonel never occurred to me. He is a wack job egoist, who tolerates useless sycophants who screw up dealing with a sick kid, gives illegal orders and then tries to dump it on everyone else - including his only real friend.
    It's a(nother) thing that Dom goes on about without appearing to understand.

    One of his mantras is supposedly John Boyd's ‘People, ideas, machines — in that order.’ But the people he chooses, whether the weirdoes and misfits or Johnson and Gove, are the sort you would never put in an army. Not one you wanted to win, anyway.

    Even if they're brilliant, the trust issues more than negate that. (Be honest. Would anyone who knows him trust Boris with their money or their wife?)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Republicans disown Trump's idiotic comments about not giving up if he loses.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I've never seen TG
    Wot?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1309335149675413505

    Zuckerberg's contribution to the destruction of American via Information Warfare cannot be over stated.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I've never seen TG, only a few clips from it.

    Tom Cruise is almost certainly too short to get posted to the F-14. The foot to knee measurement requirements were quite tight. If your lower legs were too short you couldn't get full rudder pedal movement, if they were too long you'd be ejecting from the jet without them if good times went bad.
    Film directors like short men - all to do with the scope this allows for camera angles and the like. I'd be curious to know the percentage of Hollywood leading men who have been below average height over the years.
  • Film directors like short men - all to do with the scope this allows for camera angles and the like. I'd be curious to know the percentage of Hollywood leading men who have been below average height over the years.
    So if Sunak doesn't make it to PM, perhaps he could head to Hollywood?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188

    Its is totally unfathomable that 6 months into this crisis, that a robust airport screening procedure isn't in place in every major Western country. £12bn spent on testing in the UK and still airport arrivals aren't screened, no enforcement, etc.
    The power of the airline industry in government is just astonishing. The DoT is a wholly owned subsidiary of the industry.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,537
    edited September 2020

    Film directors like short men - all to do with the scope this allows for camera angles and the like. I'd be curious to know the percentage of Hollywood leading men who have been below average height over the years.
    Alan Ladd supposedly had to stand on a box, or his leading lady stand in a ditch, for close up scenes.
This discussion has been closed.