politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new Yo

ToryJim said:

marke09 said:

TV News ‏@itvnews 4m

Exclusive: Sebastian Coe 'front runner' to be new chair of BBC Trust http://itv.co/1oJjDYY by @tombradby pic.twitter.com/QmvIKf7Tuh

That would be rather interesting.

Actually a very intelligent choice. He has a track record (if you pardon the pun) of running (yes, another one) a major public body - and delivering. He is very media savvy and he has a positive public image.

volcanopete said:

Cambridge L/Ds call for Clegg's head(and possibly any other parts of his anatomy).

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Cambridge-Liberal-Democrats-call-vote-on-Nick-Cleggs-leadership-20140528115906.htm

A death of a thousand cuts.

Or of 75 Liberal Democrat constituency associations.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yikes! Inverness etc (turnout weighted)

SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5

Excuse me while I take a few minutes to laugh myself silly.

It'll be nice for the home of English rugby to have a Tory MP again

@_alexforrest: "I pray that... the right man, or preferably woman, is now elected the save the party," says @oakeshottm. So not Cable then?

Clegg may indeed struggle on - but surely he is now 'gone' whether or not he goes. The LibDems are going to get a heavy reaming at the GE whoever is in charge - so Clegg may as well absorb the heat and then step aside for another leader. So we may well end up with a different DPM after next May.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

In all this tweeting furore, did we know St Vince was behind the Tories in the poll of his constituency??

No one commenting on that so far that I've seen

Cable has a 12,000 majority. Unless he stands down in 11 months time he will remain an MP.

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yikes! Inverness etc (turnout weighted)

SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5

Excuse me while I take a few minutes to laugh myself silly.

A note on these polls (depressing as they are), polling in the past has found a big difference when naming candidates in the voting questions.

Anyone got the Twickenham figures.

ca canny....

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yikes! Inverness etc (turnout weighted)

SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5

Excuse me while I take a few minutes to laugh myself silly.

Oakeshott tried to knife Clegg and instead has knifed Cable.

As has been tweeted, a mastermind he is not.

As a result Oakeshott has also killed any other campaign to change the leader before the general election. So he has done some good for the Lib Dems, since having a devisive fight for leadership before a general election would be disastrous for any party.

Chaps. Thanks but I need the actual figures.

I'm on my mobile and PDFs are a nightmare.

ToryJim said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

In all this tweeting furore, did we know St Vince was behind the Tories in the poll of his constituency??

No one commenting on that so far that I've seen

Cable has a 12,000 majority. Unless he stands down in 11 months time he will remain an MP.

Sounds right but given that why did the Lord O start with a poll in that constituency then - seems odd?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chaps. Thanks but I need the actual figures.

I'm on my mobile and PDFs are a nightmare.

JonathanD had them below:

C-34%
LD-32%
L-23%

David_Evershed said:

Oakeshott tried to knife Clegg and instead has knifed Cable.

As has been tweeted, a mastermind he is not.

As a result Oakeshott has also killed any other campaign to change the leader before the general election. So he has done some good for the Lib Dems, since having a devisive fight for leadership before a general election would be disastrous for any party.

He's done good for the lib dems by showing them fighting like ferrets in a sack?

Not sure about that.

corporeal said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yikes! Inverness etc (turnout weighted)

SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5

Excuse me while I take a few minutes to laugh myself silly.

A note on these polls (depressing as they are), polling in the past has found a big difference when naming candidates in the voting questions.

I dont really think Clegg or Cable are in huge danger. Alexander was always in a different position though and that is quite a deficit to make up even if the poll has many flaws.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chaps. Thanks but I need the actual figures.

I'm on my mobile and PDFs are a nightmare.

JonathanD had them below:

C-34%
LD-32%
L-23%

Plenty of Labour vote to be squeezed there so he would probably hang on in then end.

What do we know about divided parties?
Can the Lib Dems actually lose any more support?
Can they score negative votes in some constituencies?

ToryJim said:

<
Really doubt that, I am getting a sense that UKIP are getting drunk on their own hype. There will be lines of people trying to touch Farage to cure the Kings Evil soon.

But the next two weeks are going to be excellent news for the hostelries of Newark....

That picture of Farage with an empty pint pot on his head - dear oh dear. Makes me cringe a little that I considered lending them my vote.

anotherDave said:

The ICM Redcar poll has the LDs falling from 45%, to 10%.

Doesnt quite tally with them winning that by-election in the constituency last week, does it?

I'm starting to have my doubts about these constituency polls!

(Much as they are entertaining me.)

anotherDave said:

The ICM Redcar poll has the LDs falling from 45%, to 10%.

(table 12)
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems__4polls.pdf

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/redcar/

Surely that can't be right?!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

ToryJim said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

In all this tweeting furore, did we know St Vince was behind the Tories in the poll of his constituency??

No one commenting on that so far that I've seen

Cable has a 12,000 majority. Unless he stands down in 11 months time he will remain an MP.

Sounds right but given that why did the Lord O start with a poll in that constituency then - seems odd?

Christ above knows.

TGOHF said:

Was there any seats polled that the LDs would win ?

I don't think that they polled Orkney and Shetland

I see some of the usual suspects are attempting to defend all women shortlists and other forms of positive discrimination. The underlying logic is that an historic injustice can be righted by a present injustice. That is a philosophy of vigilantism.

These polls really don't tell us all that much I don't think. They're nice numbers to laugh over but if any of them pan out I'd be more than surprised.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yikes! Inverness etc (turnout weighted)

SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5

In many ways it really is tremendous news. However it should be remembered that the Tories have a lot more to gain from a LD collapse than Labour. The LDs have always maintained they were doing well where it mattered. However I've felt for some time that the lab>lib tactical voters might be worn down in the end and think sod it - I'd rather vote for the Party I prefer. If these polls are accurate the only course open to the Lib Dems I would have thought would be to make a cast iron guarantee that there will be NO deal with the Tories after the next election. There will not be a repeat coalition or support for a Tory minority government. The latter of those would be tricky if the Tories were just short of a majority. But certainly a commitment not to enter another yellow/blue coalition might help.

Whats Oakshott said about cash for peerages? Is that not rather serious?

OK - how does this all square up? It's ok to commission polls in other members constituencies without telling them but as long as they aren't published???? Lord O didn't tell him he was going to do the others - except:

Guido
Key line of Oakeshott statement: "Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."

BBC report

"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "

Lord O statement
"Vince amended and approved the questionnaire, but at his request I excluded a question on voting intentions with a change of leader. Although Vince had excellent ratings, both as a Minister and a local MP, he was slightly behind the Conservatives in this poll, as the full details on the ICM website show. That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.

BBC report
On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Memo to Lord Oakeshot: I don't suppose you could see your way to joining Labour and helpfully buggering them up as well, could you?

He's already done that, Richard, as he was a Labour councillor, PPC and Jenkins adviser who went to SDP! Maybe he could try the Greens?

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Charles said:

It's why it was so frustrating that the left chose to mock to death Cameron's tenantive steps to establish the little platoons

The Big Society is the Tories' big idea. As an alternative to the clunking fist of the central state, Mr Cameron and his colleagues envisage a civil society comprised of so many "little platoons", a term they have borrowed from Edmund Burke to describe the voluntary groups and neighbourhood associations that would be integral to a "broad culture of responsibility, mutuality and obligation".

Yes, that was a major mistake by the Left. They could have picked up Cameron's idea and run with it, and used it as a way to encourage more social solidarity in society in general.

Much of the Left has found itself in a dead-end of always arguing for the State to intervene, when the options are broader than State versus Market.

And that for me is why I struggle to see the situation where I could vote for the current Labour party: it is the party of vested interests and the state, rather than a party of the One Nation acting cohensively.

God forbid that you might have some vested interests Charles and that these may be best served by the Conservative party!!

Actually we tend to perform better in periods of extreme financial stress (our USP is trust and stability). I'd be arguing for a Labour government if I was looking at my personal interests!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

...

BBC report
On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.

In other words "We are called Liberal Democrats but when one of us dares ask awkward questions we will come down on them hard."

Charles said:

Smarmeron said:

@Charles

"One nation acting cohesively" is the antithesis of modern capitalism. It requires people to think in term of consumer wealth without regard to abstract concepts like "value"

Not really.

But then I'm a believe in stakeholder value. Shareholders come way down the list in our business (customers, regulators, family, society and shareholders is the rule of thumb)

Part of the difficulty is that 'modern capitalism' isn't really capitalism - it's corporatism. Companies run for the benefit of top management and which target short-term (ie quarterly or yearly) share price performance.

Neil said:

anotherDave said:

The ICM Redcar poll has the LDs falling from 45%, to 10%.
m cou

Doesnt quite tally with them winning that by-election in the constituency last week, does it?

I'm starting to have my doubts about these constituency polls!

(Much as they are entertaining me.)

The public are more sophisticated than you think. They're well aware of the differences between local and national elections. If individual Lib Dem councillors are popular they may get re-elected. Also, who votes in a local by election? Only the very, very committed. We had one recently. Plaid Cymru were the only party to deliver a leaflet and they did pretty well. The leaflet was the usual garbage but the point was they were making an effort. Delivering focus leaflets won't save the LDs in a GE. In some areas they might also be the only opposition to Labour. There's many reasons for them to be maintaining strength at local level and still lose it at national.

@Slackbladder‌
LibDems telling lies, whatever next?

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"...a party of the One Nation acting cohesively"

I suggest that you can't have such a party unless that party also fosters and promotes a sense of nation. It is surely impossible to have a common purpose with a common identity. As both the modern Conservative party and, especially, the modern Labour party are antipathetical to idea of England, never mind the UK, as a nation then neither can ever be a party of one nation acting cohesively.

I don't disagree. For me the Conservative's biggest error is that they equate the interests of "big business" with the interests of business.

They need to be looking after the SMEs, the entrepreneurs, the skilled and the aspirational. British Gas or BP or GSK will do just fine without extra help.

TGOHF said:

Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..

Yes, you're right.

Is Oakeshott Saruman to McBrides Sauron?
Or is he just a pathetic little twit?
#savenick

OT .... for tennis fans. French Open :

Venus Williams out and Serena, the defending champion, almost gone .... set and 5:1 down

Venus Williams loses 6:2 6:2

Both Williams sisters out within a hour of each other.

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..

Yes, you're right.

"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
"

At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?

" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 50 secs
Vince Cable's going to have to resign, surely?

That's Cable safe then.

JonathanD said:

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..

Yes, you're right.

"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
"

At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?

" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."

JonathanD said:

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Slackbladder said:

TGOHF said:

Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..

Yes, you're right.

"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
"

At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?

" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."

Exactly, so Cable sat on the knowledge of the polls and did nothing.... he's up to his eyeballs.

Redcar was a one-off result in one-off circumstances in 2010. The Lib Dems would be lucky to hold it even if their national vote share went up. Remember that their real targets in the north east* were places like City of Durham and Blaydon, where they failed.

*This does not mean that I acknowledge that Redcar is in the north east, rather than Yorkshire!