Exclusive: Sebastian Coe 'front runner' to be new chair of BBC Trust http://itv.co/1oJjDYY by @tombradby pic.twitter.com/QmvIKf7Tuh
That would be rather interesting.
Actually a very intelligent choice. He has a track record (if you pardon the pun) of running (yes, another one) a major public body - and delivering. He is very media savvy and he has a positive public image.
It sounds like that private poll result in Cable's seat was the main driver behind Lord Oakshott then targeting Clegg/Alexander seats for similar private polling?
@chrisshipitv: Oakeshott knifes Clegg & Cable: A close colleague concerned about voting intentions in Twickenham asked me if I wld arrange & pay for a poll
Clegg may indeed struggle on - but surely he is now 'gone' whether or not he goes. The LibDems are going to get a heavy reaming at the GE whoever is in charge - so Clegg may as well absorb the heat and then step aside for another leader. So we may well end up with a different DPM after next May.
The Ashcroft polling of Tory vs Lib Dem marginals could be an interesting contrast when it comes... or not... I thought the PB rule was Lib Dems were limpet like in these?
Oakeshott tried to knife Clegg and instead has knifed Cable.
As has been tweeted, a mastermind he is not.
As a result Oakeshott has also killed any other campaign to change the leader before the general election. So he has done some good for the Lib Dems, since having a devisive fight for leadership before a general election would be disastrous for any party.
Oakeshott tried to knife Clegg and instead has knifed Cable.
As has been tweeted, a mastermind he is not.
As a result Oakeshott has also killed any other campaign to change the leader before the general election. So he has done some good for the Lib Dems, since having a devisive fight for leadership before a general election would be disastrous for any party.
He's done good for the lib dems by showing them fighting like ferrets in a sack?
Excuse me while I take a few minutes to laugh myself silly.
A note on these polls (depressing as they are), polling in the past has found a big difference when naming candidates in the voting questions.
I dont really think Clegg or Cable are in huge danger. Alexander was always in a different position though and that is quite a deficit to make up even if the poll has many flaws.
< Really doubt that, I am getting a sense that UKIP are getting drunk on their own hype. There will be lines of people trying to touch Farage to cure the Kings Evil soon.
But the next two weeks are going to be excellent news for the hostelries of Newark....
That picture of Farage with an empty pint pot on his head - dear oh dear. Makes me cringe a little that I considered lending them my vote.
What do we know about divided parties? Can the Lib Dems actually lose any more support? Can they score negative votes in some constituencies?
Actually this is more evidence for my contention that conventional wisdom has it A about F.
It is not that divided parties are unpopular but that unpopular parties become prone to splits as members panic and search for scapegoats and saviours.
What do we know about divided parties? Can the Lib Dems actually lose any more support? Can they score negative votes in some constituencies?
Actually this is more evidence for my contention that conventional wisdom has it A about F.
It is not that divided parties are unpopular but that unpopular parties become prone to splits as members panic and search for scapegoats and saviours.
I see some of the usual suspects are attempting to defend all women shortlists and other forms of positive discrimination. The underlying logic is that an historic injustice can be righted by a present injustice. That is a philosophy of vigilantism.
These polls really don't tell us all that much I don't think. They're nice numbers to laugh over but if any of them pan out I'd be more than surprised.
In many ways it really is tremendous news. However it should be remembered that the Tories have a lot more to gain from a LD collapse than Labour. The LDs have always maintained they were doing well where it mattered. However I've felt for some time that the lab>lib tactical voters might be worn down in the end and think sod it - I'd rather vote for the Party I prefer. If these polls are accurate the only course open to the Lib Dems I would have thought would be to make a cast iron guarantee that there will be NO deal with the Tories after the next election. There will not be a repeat coalition or support for a Tory minority government. The latter of those would be tricky if the Tories were just short of a majority. But certainly a commitment not to enter another yellow/blue coalition might help.
Not impossible. The LDs had 12% in Redcar in 2001 and 20% in 2005. They then had a massive swing from Labour in 2010 on the back of the closure of the local steelworks.
OK - how does this all square up? It's ok to commission polls in other members constituencies without telling them but as long as they aren't published???? Lord O didn't tell him he was going to do the others - except:
Guido Key line of Oakeshott statement: "Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
BBC report
"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "
Lord O statement "Vince amended and approved the questionnaire, but at his request I excluded a question on voting intentions with a change of leader. Although Vince had excellent ratings, both as a Minister and a local MP, he was slightly behind the Conservatives in this poll, as the full details on the ICM website show. That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
BBC report On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.
"One nation acting cohesively" is the antithesis of modern capitalism. It requires people to think in term of consumer wealth without regard to abstract concepts like "value"
Not really.
But then I'm a believe in stakeholder value. Shareholders come way down the list in our business (customers, regulators, family, society and shareholders is the rule of thumb)
It's why it was so frustrating that the left chose to mock to death Cameron's tenantive steps to establish the little platoons
The Big Society is the Tories' big idea. As an alternative to the clunking fist of the central state, Mr Cameron and his colleagues envisage a civil society comprised of so many "little platoons", a term they have borrowed from Edmund Burke to describe the voluntary groups and neighbourhood associations that would be integral to a "broad culture of responsibility, mutuality and obligation".
Yes, that was a major mistake by the Left. They could have picked up Cameron's idea and run with it, and used it as a way to encourage more social solidarity in society in general.
Much of the Left has found itself in a dead-end of always arguing for the State to intervene, when the options are broader than State versus Market.
And that for me is why I struggle to see the situation where I could vote for the current Labour party: it is the party of vested interests and the state, rather than a party of the One Nation acting cohensively.
God forbid that you might have some vested interests Charles and that these may be best served by the Conservative party!!
Actually we tend to perform better in periods of extreme financial stress (our USP is trust and stability). I'd be arguing for a Labour government if I was looking at my personal interests!
Can anyone photoshop Nick Clegg and Oakeshott's heads onto a picture of King Leonidas and Ephialtes the hunchback from 300 please. I want to use it on this evenings thread.
BBC report On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.
In other words "We are called Liberal Democrats but when one of us dares ask awkward questions we will come down on them hard."
OK - how does this all square up? It's ok to commission polls in other members constituencies without telling them but as long as they aren't published???? Lord O didn't tell him he was going to do the others - except:
Guido Key line of Oakeshott statement: "Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
BBC report
"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "
Lord O statement "Vince amended and approved the questionnaire, but at his request I excluded a question on voting intentions with a change of leader. Although Vince had excellent ratings, both as a Minister and a local MP, he was slightly behind the Conservatives in this poll, as the full details on the ICM website show. That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
BBC report On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.
Surely the more interesting line is 'Vince amended and approved the questionnaire' which suggests that Cable knew of the poll before it happened, and authorised it.
"One nation acting cohesively" is the antithesis of modern capitalism. It requires people to think in term of consumer wealth without regard to abstract concepts like "value"
Not really.
But then I'm a believe in stakeholder value. Shareholders come way down the list in our business (customers, regulators, family, society and shareholders is the rule of thumb)
Part of the difficulty is that 'modern capitalism' isn't really capitalism - it's corporatism. Companies run for the benefit of top management and which target short-term (ie quarterly or yearly) share price performance.
o/t - a really, really poor day for HMT given the criticism in the FT of their "analysis" of the cost of setting up an independent Government in Scotland. Their involvement in the Scottish Independence campaign has been a new low for the UK civil service.
The ICM Redcar poll has the LDs falling from 45%, to 10%. m cou
Doesnt quite tally with them winning that by-election in the constituency last week, does it?
I'm starting to have my doubts about these constituency polls!
(Much as they are entertaining me.)
The public are more sophisticated than you think. They're well aware of the differences between local and national elections. If individual Lib Dem councillors are popular they may get re-elected. Also, who votes in a local by election? Only the very, very committed. We had one recently. Plaid Cymru were the only party to deliver a leaflet and they did pretty well. The leaflet was the usual garbage but the point was they were making an effort. Delivering focus leaflets won't save the LDs in a GE. In some areas they might also be the only opposition to Labour. There's many reasons for them to be maintaining strength at local level and still lose it at national.
"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "
At the very least he sat on the info for a month - Cable is a devious shite and has form.
The Lembit/Oakeshott 'axis of evil' failed to bring down Clegg. - What I don't understand is how could things have gone so wrong?
I suggest that you can't have such a party unless that party also fosters and promotes a sense of nation. It is surely impossible to have a common purpose with a common identity. As both the modern Conservative party and, especially, the modern Labour party are antipathetical to idea of England, never mind the UK, as a nation then neither can ever be a party of one nation acting cohesively.
I don't disagree. For me the Conservative's biggest error is that they equate the interests of "big business" with the interests of business.
They need to be looking after the SMEs, the entrepreneurs, the skilled and the aspirational. British Gas or BP or GSK will do just fine without extra help.
There's many reasons for them to be maintaining strength at local level and still lose it at national.
It was the only local campaign in a battleground seat for next year. You can be sure that both LDs and Lab threw the sink at it. Winning that seat is simply not compatible with the GE share reducing to less than 25% of what it was last time regardless of differences between the elections or quality of candidates etc.
There's many reasons for them to be maintaining strength at local level and still lose it at national.
It was the only local campaign in a battleground seat for next year. You can be sure that both LDs and Lab threw the sink at it. Winning that seat is simply not compatible with the GE share reducing to less than 25% of what it was last time regardless of differences between the elections or quality of candidates etc.
Or it's an area of strength in a seat slipping away. Time will tell
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
You endless drumbeat this week that the Labour surge in London was down to immigrants. You ignore the big leftie professional class here.
But fair enough on the address thing - I think the same.
I didn't ignore the big leftie professional class. I just said that there wasn't a sizable enough Labour majority among professionals to actually win elections. You have not come back with anything even resembling evidence to substantiate your claim. You just double down on your own beliefs and say I'm wrong without justification.
I would hazard that in London at least some white British people who were not middle class professionals may have voted Labour, just as they did in many other parts of the country.
I would hazard that in London, white British people favoured UKIP over Labour. Would be great if someone did some polling by ethnic group and social class so we can see.
"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "
At the very least he sat on the info for a month - Cable is a devious shite and has form.
The Lembit/Oakeshott 'axis of evil' failed to bring down Clegg. - What I don't understand is how could things have gone so wrong?
Vincas dripping fangs the day they knifed Ming are the clue. The old vampire is out for the blood of fresh Liberals. Nick must arm himself with garlic and a stake and boot the old tool into the long grass. Or Cam should, citing the need for government work to be unburdened by the petty squabbles of the minor partner.
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
There's many reasons for them to be maintaining strength at local level and still lose it at national.
It was the only local campaign in a battleground seat for next year. You can be sure that both LDs and Lab threw the sink at it. Winning that seat is simply not compatible with the GE share reducing to less than 25% of what it was last time regardless of differences between the elections or quality of candidates etc.
I doubt the LDs will be down to 10% next year. But their chances of winning Redcar are near zero.
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
Senior moment and forgot ?
LDs would do well to stand him down too - Labour sleeper agent since the 70s.
Cameron - be the statesman. tell the Lib Dems they have 48 hours to sort themselves out or you will take action to protect the country from their incessant squabbling. Do it! Twist that knife!
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
To be fair, the supplementary questions in the Inverness poll are quite good for Danny A - he gets good ratings as an MP, for example. The ratings for other politicians are also quite interesting:
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
Exactly, so Cable sat on the knowledge of the polls and did nothing.... he's up to his eyeballs.
Redcar was a one-off result in one-off circumstances in 2010. The Lib Dems would be lucky to hold it even if their national vote share went up. Remember that their real targets in the north east* were places like City of Durham and Blaydon, where they failed.
*This does not mean that I acknowledge that Redcar is in the north east, rather than Yorkshire!
Cable may have known about Richmond but not Sheffield polls ? That would allow them both to be telling the truth..
Yes, you're right.
"That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question. "
At what point in time did Cable know about those polls though?
" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
Comments
SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
Con 12%
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 5
Or of 75 Liberal Democrat constituency associations.
Now would be the time to offer Danny a safe Tory seat. Kick the yellow peril when they're down.
LD-32%
L-23%
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_twick.pdf
http://t.co/etsbi7X6wx
As has been tweeted, a mastermind he is not.
As a result Oakeshott has also killed any other campaign to change the leader before the general election. So he has done some good for the Lib Dems, since having a devisive fight for leadership before a general election would be disastrous for any party.
I'm on my mobile and PDFs are a nightmare.
C-34%
LD-32%
L-23%
Not sure about that.
(table 12)
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems__4polls.pdf
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/redcar/
Can the Lib Dems actually lose any more support?
Can they score negative votes in some constituencies?
That picture of Farage with an empty pint pot on his head - dear oh dear. Makes me cringe a little that I considered lending them my vote.
I'm starting to have my doubts about these constituency polls!
(Much as they are entertaining me.)
It is not that divided parties are unpopular but that unpopular parties become prone to splits as members panic and search for scapegoats and saviours.
(fixed for you)
#popcorn
Guido
Key line of Oakeshott statement: "Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
BBC report
"The Lib Dems have said they are "100% sure" that Mr Cable played no part in the poll and that the business secretary took "proactive steps" to denounce it. "
Lord O statement
"Vince amended and approved the questionnaire, but at his request I excluded a question on voting intentions with a change of leader. Although Vince had excellent ratings, both as a Minister and a local MP, he was slightly behind the Conservatives in this poll, as the full details on the ICM website show. That poll worried me so much that I commissioned four more in different types of constituency all over the country and added back the change of leadership question.
BBC report
On Tuesday Mr Cable described Lord Oakeshott's actions as "totally inexcusable and unacceptable". "Commissioning and publishing polls without the consent of the Member of Parliament, as in the case of Sheffield Hallam, is utterly reprehensible," he said on Tuesday.
But then I'm a believe in stakeholder value. Shareholders come way down the list in our business (customers, regulators, family, society and shareholders is the rule of thumb)
Fury over 'offensive' 'Pakistani only' to let sign in Nelson
http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/pendle/nelson/11236060.Fury_over__offensive___Pakistani_only__to_let_sign_in_Nelson/
In other words "We are called Liberal Democrats but when one of us dares ask awkward questions we will come down on them hard."
So either Oakeshott or Cable is lying...
At the very least he sat on the info for a month - Cable is a devious shite and has form.
The Lembit/Oakeshott 'axis of evil' failed to bring down Clegg. - What I don't understand is how could things have gone so wrong?
LibDems telling lies, whatever next?
They need to be looking after the SMEs, the entrepreneurs, the skilled and the aspirational. British Gas or BP or GSK will do just fine without extra help.
Or is he just a pathetic little twit?
#savenick
"It was Oakshitt in the library with Vince's knicker elastic."
"
Venus Williams out and Serena, the defending champion, almost gone .... set and 5:1 down
Oakshott and Cable are quite close. It would do the party good to be shot of them.
The old vampire is out for the blood of fresh Liberals. Nick must arm himself with garlic and a stake and boot the old tool into the long grass.
Or Cam should, citing the need for government work to be unburdened by the petty squabbles of the minor partner.
Nick Clegg's back garden?
Both Williams sisters out within a hour of each other.
LDs would do well to stand him down too - Labour sleeper agent since the 70s.
What, he's already pulled out every last hair on his head.
Who's talking about his head!
" Several weeks ago, I told Vince the results of those four polls too."
Vince Cable's going to have to resign, surely?
That's Cable safe then.
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_inverness.pdf
Table 10
Sample size is rather small, of course.
LOL - Hodges' Midas touch.
*This does not mean that I acknowledge that Redcar is in the north east, rather than Yorkshire!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100273686/i-told-vince-has-lord-oakeshott-dropped-a-bomb-which-could-destroy-the-liberal-democrats/