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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new Yo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll
After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead.
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If they want more, then +12 of the potential new voters say go.
Is this another cunning plan from the Party of IN?
I do hope that you are right Mike. With Clegg still in position in September the Lib Dems are going to be worse than useless during the IndyRef.
In the old days (eg. the Kennedy days) the Lib Dems were the likeable Unionists.If they still filled that role then they would have been a great asset to Better Together. Instead, they have been replaced by UKIP, the Unionist party lots of people love to hate.
Anecdote alert: a couple of days ago I was amazed to see a friend's brother post this on Facebook: "That's my mind made up ..... Independent Scotland , yes please." The reason I was amazed is that their father is a former Labour Lord Provost, and I have heard several viscerally critical anti-SNP comments from family members. He was actually the family member I would have said was least likely to be a Yes voter. So, that is the UKIP effect for you: turning life-long Unionist voters into Yes voters. Well, at least one of them!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Provost
Their best hope is probably to go on the attack against Labour and then sweep in on the coat-tails of the Conservative victory, which as TSE and others pointed out yesterday now looks inevitable.
As I've mentioned previously, a much more interesting question is the position of EdM. I think he is more vulnerable than Clegg to being ousted this year. Unlike the LibDems, Labour have little to lose from a putsch, and much to gain. It's the potential big game changer and the Conservatives have got to hope and pray they're stupid enough to retain EdM into the General Election.
Vince now has polling evidence that he’s no better than Clegg, poor chap must be gutted,
If polled, I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband to stay as Labour leader.... but only because Ed is Crap.
The problem the LibDems have with Nick Clegg staying is that people just won't listen to a message delivered by Nick Clegg. That the Party doesn't appear to have a message to deliver is a wider problem that affects any replacement leader. If they do suddenly come up with some bright ideas, between now and the election, they would be squandered if delivered by Clegg. Keeping Clegg in place is an admission that they need a long, hard think about what they are and what they offer.
But that admission will lose them at least half their current MP's. Who is going to vote for a Party whose offer is: "Vote for us, even though we know we have a dead-in-the-water leader and no policies - we'll tell you about our new elder and what we are for after the election... Hello? Come back....please come back....PLEASE..... "
In all seriousness it is difficult to see how last week's elections in any way enhanced the Yrs vote chances.
What, both of them?
The tories are going to waste peoples' time by bringing forward bills that will probably get voted down. From their pov it is not a waste because it shows what a tory majority would do and how they are being restrained by the Coalition.
Is there any reason that the Lib Dems can't do the same? It does require some of those idea things mentioned down thread but it would also be a chance to bring forward a distinctive voice and reassert their existence as a separate party.
There seems to be a general acknowledgement that the Coalition Agreement has largely run its course. Parliament does not have much else to do.
The main problem is the fundamental lack of accountability of the Commission, and it's drive for integration against the wishes of many citizens. I bet that won't be part of the review.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/27/-sp-racism-on-rise-in-britain
Some interesting comments below also. The one analysis that seems missing in the article is racial prejudice by ethnicity.
The exact questions would be interesting; and how many are unconfessed racists.
@Mike - should he stay, or should he go?
This is the direction of travel for the EU and Member States. There will be an agreement that will entitle states to refuse to pay benefits to those who have not contributed and have no real connection with the state. There will no longer be an obligation to pay Child Benefit for children not even in the country. There may be further restrictions on the scope of the entitlement to health care for non citizens.
I really don't think there is any doubt that a qualifying majority of northern states are up for this. It should give Cameron an easy victory. I doubt any of this will require a treaty change although it may well require modification of existing regulations which can be done by QMV.
Is there no end to your bigotry !!
Terrifying figures on the rise of racism, something I have noticed anecdotally outside London.
Not surprised to see it is actually falling sharply within the capital.
But peasants revolts are rarely successful for long. Wat Tyler led a mass demonstration out of Kent, but was killed by the Mayor of London, and his head put on a pike.
It hasn't occurred to your mate that the people he dislikes are Scots and live in Scotland and would still be there post indy ?
What's he going to do ethnically cleanse them ?
24 hours 23 minutes 22 seconds
Now we have more data, I want to return to some of the subjects I've looked at in previous posts.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/ruth-davidson-msp-how-we-held-our-euro-seat-and-grew-our-vote-in-scotland.html
Unimpressed by the graph in the Guardian as it's very to pick holes in the conclusions they come to. It all depends what dates you compare with, and it's based on subjective racism.
However, suspending disbelief, am I reading the histograms wrong? If racism, as defined, is going up in the last 10 years, it seems to be within the unskilled not the highly qualified.
Diplomacy question: if two units bounced one another from the North Sea, which remained empty, and a third unit adjacent to the North Sea were displaced, can it retreat there? I suspect not, but it's worth asking.
Ashcroft - Lab 31 Green 7
YG - Lab 34 Green 5
Populus - Lab 36 Green 3
The Lab + Green percentage is very consistent at 38 - 39.
This - along with the rise in UKIP - is an example of how the Euros have distorted GE polling.
Just as you would expect more UKIP voters to return to the Tories by the GE, you would also expect Green voters to return to Labour.
Given that at the last GE the greens got just 1% of the vote - and did slightly worse in the euros than in 09 in terms of votes - this is clearly a vote which could be squeezed by Labour.
I return to the more interesting issue given that I think the GE is foregone: EdM's position over the next 11 months. Will Labour have the courage to ditch the liability leader?
The LDs are pro-Europe and the EU project, pro-Immigration, pro-ECHR in all its facets, pro-Green energy which costs more than conventional energy, pro-Green Energy taxes and subsidies which results in higher energy bills, and many are anti-Fracking - a potential new UK energy source.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2641199/Tony-Blairs-rank-hypocrisy-He-threw-open-Britain-millions-immigrations-sneers-Ukip.html
Not all of them are up yet, and some are in appalling formats, especially the London one.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/european-parliamentary-elections
London here
http://londoneuroelections.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Borough-Voting-Figures-for-London-160KB-pdf.pdf
I feel this is unlikely though. There has been a clear Green spike associated with the Euros, the extra publicity they get and the way they have more of a chance than under FPTP.
In a GE though those voters will have a choice of a Labour government or a Tory government.
And actually the profile of Green voters is probably the most favourable in the whole electorate - generally middle class, liberal, soft left, ethical. That is the group Ed probably does best with.
You have a better argument with Lab to UKIP switchers but if this analysis is correct Labour probably don't need them to win. They could win with current Labour voters + green switchers. Not saying it is going to happen because I'm not a mystic but it is surely a feasible possibility.
Indeed. I have long been asking for a Green Labourites thread, looking at how sticky Green voters are. I suspect that they can be lured back.
UKIP 4th with 10% in Scotland - but with a very good chance of being in a Tory-UKIP ruling coalition come 2015.
Green supporters just want to impose their worldview on everyone else and hang the consequences
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10858377/Has-Ed-Miliband-trapped-himself-on-the-wrong-side-of-history.html
Unfortunately, I'm of an age where the mention of Uriah Heep makes me think of Demons and Wizards :-)
"As Labour unity splinters, the party’s Uriah Heep tendency, including some henchmen of the leader, counsels extreme grovelling, particularly on immigration. Had Mr Miliband heeded earlier calls for more contrition, he would still be delivering a litany of mea culpas ranging from Labour’s alleged destruction of the economy to his habit of eating bacon sandwiches like a starving Doberman. "
Whatever one thinks about Farage he has force of personality and will attract lots of media attention.
Natalie Bennett, not so much.
And I would also expect UKIP to stand in a lot more seats than the Greens and run much better funded constituency campaigns.
Anyway before I go to work, the irony yesterday of TSE making some derogatory comment about public sector workers being skivers and shirkers whilst posting on PB all the working day was hilarious. As a Public sector worker you won't find me posting during the working day.....
But thanks for your input on the working day. I'm sure you'll have plenty of time to post after you clock off at 5...
Erm, I think you have made a massive logic fail there. Labour are leading the polls, not by much but leading they are. Either the Tories stage a revival in the next 11 months, or they lose. It really is as simple as that.
and 'I've always admired liberal democracy' said Mr Putin.
My wife and I experienced this phenomenon recently in our corner of North London when our son was deprived of a nursery place at primary school because sibling-first admissions favoured Muslims and eastern Europeans, who tend to have large families.
www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2641199/Tony-Blairs-rank-hypocrisy-He-threw-open-Britain-millions-immigrations-sneers-Ukip.html
My point was that they are more likely than other voters to see Ed in a positive light.
If the Greens have any sense then they will get Caroline Lucas back as Leader. Oh ....
If this remains the case, a big if, then the election will be decided by who consolidates their electoral base better - and stops drift to UKIP, Greens and LDs.
That is a very different electoral dynamic to one we have seen in the past.
Am I green-red or red-green? Hard to tell, really.
Indeed so - and geography is key. Labour won't give a toss how its traditional support votes in Ruralshire West, where it cannot win. It will be keeping a close eye on Suburb Central and Little City North.
Good trading bet right?
I also have Cable at 16/1.
Lab to UKIP switchers are completely different in terms of class and ideology to the Green / LD voters Labour needs.
And a move to the right on immigration for example could alienate as many as it attracts. But without maintaining its working class base Labour risks becoming limited to the 'Yes to AV' coalition.
Or is this more from Project Fear Fib?
Admittedly, it was One Nation under UKIP, but still.
It is pissing it down.
(Make up your own punchlines!)
But, to reverse the suggestion, if you want to go ahead and back Labour that's up to you. Someone was offering long odds for them winning Newark. Be our guest.
Perhaps these people told pollsters they would vote Labour last year, and some of them may well end up doing so in 2015, but as we can see with the long-term decline in the share of the vote won by Labour and the Conservatives, once people lose the habit of voting for the main two parties they often lose it for good.
Those mysogynist homophobic Tories.
First Lady PM, and now first openly gay leader - and a woman to boot!
If only they'd stick to the script.......
Sums Ed up does it not?
pic.twitter.com/7rQY33ZDBw
Yesterday LibDemVoice published the results of the members survey carried out over the last two days, as we reported then we would be making the full results of the final question available. Below is the breakdown for each of the 42 stages, and if you are really interest you can download the ballot file to run through your favourite STV counter (mine is OpenSTV, but it’s chargable) eliminating candidates if you so wish.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/stv-stages-for-a-potential-replacement-leader-40415.html#utm_source=tweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter
I almost wrote 'poor Miliband'.
I may need to hail a gondola.
As for Newark - this is a safe Tory seat and is not a Labour target. If you fancy even a mild Tory revival you can back the Blues at generous prices in seats they currently hold, but which Labour are favourites to take.
Any clearer?
Not sure there is huge incentive or desire to support each other really certainly amongst their voters. Greens get a lot of support from otherwise lib dems or trendy conservatives
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Labour *will* win them back, but I'm saying they *can* win them back. And indeed I would argue it is as likely they will vote Labour as the Con to UKIP switchers will vote Tory.
Also - it is useful in showing how complex the picture is and therefore difficult to predict.
One nation Kippers who got spanked in London and the big city areas where people outnumber sheep.
None of this fannying around.
Labour support has changed considerably in the last few decades - becoming more middle class and professional with the support of a lot more fluffy lefties as you put it than before.
Labour lost a lot of support amongst this group over Iraq but did surprisingly well in 2010 with them (which allowed them to get up to 30% from the huge lows of 08 and 09). Labour's vote fell more amongst the working class in 2010 than the middle class.
A lot will have voted LD but given their general dislike of the Tories I think most will vote Labour or Green next time.