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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll re

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    Cyclefree said:

    I would allow asylum seekers to work and contribute if only to avoid them being sucked into the black economy and being exploited by the people traffickers, who are thoroughly evil people. We are permitting / turning a blind eye to appalling exploitation and 21st century slavery. I also rather like what @rcs1000 has described as the Swiss approach.
    The problem with that is it reinforces the cycle. If it is seen that paying all your savings to a people trafficker pays off, more people will do it?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited September 2020
    Cyclefree said:



    You propose leaving women and children in lifeboats in the Atlantic or in the Channel, one of the busiest sea lanes in the world, and hope they will be ok and not drown. Wow!
    I think Dura Ace is espressing surprise that Patel hasn`t done this rather than advocating it himself. Anyway, he`s not as bad as my little old lady neighbour who wants to row out in a little boat and burst the immigrants` dinghies.
  • Am I right in thinking the rule of 6 doesn't apply to gyms? Putting ~20 people in a small spin studio with air con, while they all sweat buckets and breath heavily, ticks so many boxes for transmission.

    Correct. My gym temperature checks everyone coming in and seriously restricts numbers in the Spin classes, but that's their choice rather than legal guidelines. Anywhere that makes money is free to carry on regardless. So its very clear - 10 people in a Spin Class indoors - safe and legal. 10 people group cycling outdoors - call the police.
  • Have you become a Conspiracy Theorist now? ;)

    I would not blame you, I do not think that you are wrong either. One feature of this administration that appears to be reliable is its penchant for lying and dissembling.
    I don't think you have to be a conspiracy theorist to think that when a politician passes a law which literally legalizes theft and bribery, their intention is to steal and take bribes.
  • I, for one, welcome our new Venusian overlords.

    #2020bingo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716
    This seems to be progressing un/surprisingly quickly:

    SpaceX gearing up for 12-mile-high test flight with Starship SN8 prototype
    https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-sn8-prototype-test-flight-soon.html
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Correct. My gym temperature checks everyone coming in and seriously restricts numbers in the Spin classes, but that's their choice rather than legal guidelines. Anywhere that makes money is free to carry on regardless. So its very clear - 10 people in a Spin Class indoors - safe and legal. 10 people group cycling outdoors - call the police.
    My gym is intent and relentless in disinfecting the fuck out of all the equipment.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Have you become a Conspiracy Theorist now? ;)

    I would not blame you, I do not think that you are wrong either. One feature of this administration that appears to be reliable is its penchant for lying and dissembling.
    It’s just a feeling I have in my investigative bones. Something doesn’t smell quite right about this story. There may be some tech involved somewhere but there is also a lot of spin.

    Plus I have some knowledge about some of DC’s associates, which I am unable to share for reasons of confidentiality, which is making me wonder what is really going on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716
    I note the replacement Japanese PM is a septuagenarian.

    I think Mike should have thrown his hat into the ring for next LD leader. What might have been...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Nigelb said:

    I note the replacement Japanese PM is a septuagenarian.

    I think Mike should have thrown his hat into the ring for next LD leader. What might have been...

    There’ll probably be another LD leadership election along very soon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Interesting (long) thread on State Aid & the options:

    https://twitter.com/awstojanovic/status/1305427738862510082?s=20

    It is the same hill that arch-Brexiteer Jeremy Corbyn would have been happy to die on.
  • Stocky said:

    My gym is intent and relentless in disinfecting the fuck out of all the equipment.
    Same with mine. Its well thought through and managed. You take my point though - 7 people doing a yoga class inside legal, 7 people doing yoga in the park, illegal.
  • Carnyx said:

    What I don't understand is why X is told to drive 200 miles to station B when station A in the same town has to send the samples to a lab anyway - so why not send the samples to a further lab?

    Is it cos the commercial firms have divvied up the test stations and labs?
    It could just be that optimising the distribution of thousands of tests an hour to testing stations and labs and people is a really hard problem. Especially when demand is bumping up against the limits of supply. Most of the time, we don't notice or mind, or we simplify the process by splitting it up into smaller localised chunks. Shiny apps are remarkably clever, but can't do everything, even now.

    Good thing that there isn't somebody who doesn't really get computing planning to squeeze billions of pounds of efficiency out of the government by increasing the use of centralised dat... oh [insert appropriate word of exasperation here].
  • Mr. Urquhart, thanks for that answer :)
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Cyclefree said:

    The reason migrants can’t be sent back, whether by force or otherwise, is because the government cannot force other countries to accept people. Deportations only happen when the receiving country agrees to receive them. If they don’t you can’t deport no matter how many laws you tear up or lawyers you bar from acting.

    If a boat is in British territorial waters or lands on a British shore, what are you going to do: shoot them? Drown them? Tow them to France? And what happens if the French close their ports to us?
    So you prove my point that it's not a BXP/UKIP Government - they wouldn't give two hoots about your objections, they'd just do it. Meanwhile, Britain under Big Bad Boris is taking people off boats by the thousands. Bit of a discrepancy, no?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Ha! I didn’t know that. Yes. Am very proud of that. Top 100 worldwide.

    ** buffs nails and blushes **

    Congratulations!

  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    5 red cards in injury time at the Parc des Prince last night as Marseille bt PSG, and a crowd of 5,000 were there to watch it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227

    Am I right in thinking the rule of 6 doesn't apply to gyms? Putting ~20 people in a small spin studio with air con, while they all sweat buckets and breath heavily, ticks so many boxes for transmission.

    Any sort of indoor gym class is a huge vector. Cardio outdoors. Gyms for lifting.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Congratulations!

    Thank you.
  • Correct. My gym temperature checks everyone coming in and seriously restricts numbers in the Spin classes, but that's their choice rather than legal guidelines. Anywhere that makes money is free to carry on regardless. So its very clear - 10 people in a Spin Class indoors - safe and legal. 10 people group cycling outdoors - call the police.
    But if its a protest involving bikes, thats ok, even if its 1000s.
  • So what's our spread on the number of Tory rebels tonight? I'm opening the market with a spread of 28-32. (Not for money, just for fun).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    So you prove my point that it's not a BXP/UKIP Government - they wouldn't give two hoots about your objections, they'd just do it. Meanwhile, Britain under Big Bad Boris is taking people off boats by the thousands. Bit of a discrepancy, no?
    I’m not clear whether you agree with what the government is currently doing or want people in boats to be towed out to sea and left there.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,589
    edited September 2020
    I'm sorry to see the demise of the old masthead - which should have been given Grade 2 listed status before it was demolished. But if a starving graphic designer has earned himself 10 grand for typing out 'politicalbetting" and applying colour and shadow, fair play and congratulations. The only problem is that it appears as "OLITICALBETTING.CO" on my ipad and 'LITICALBETTING.C" on my phone and, at the risk of being waved away as a curmudgeonly old git, I'm bound to say this is not an improvement.
  • Sure you will all join me in wishing Keir the very best
  • Nice to see MPs having principles and supporting the Rule of Law :+1:
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Cyclefree said:

    I’m not clear whether you agree with what the government is currently doing or want people in boats to be towed out to sea and left there.
    You can be clear that they are not doing what they would be doing if they were what you accuse them of being.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    It is the same hill that arch-Brexiteer Jeremy Corbyn would have been happy to die on.
    One of the best things about BREXIT
  • Chaos with Ed M! He might be speaking today in place of Keir
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    Cyclefree said:



    You propose leaving women and children in lifeboats in the Atlantic or in the Channel, one of the busiest sea lanes in the world, and hope they will be ok and not drown. Wow!
    Dura_Ace is mischievously thinking out loud on behalf of Priti Patel.

    Dura_Ace is great, he is the thinking poster's SeanT.!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227

    Sure you will all join me in wishing Keir the very best

    I assume he'll be able to vote by proxy ? Wonder who will cast the vote for him.
    All parliamentarians must be heard even if isolating at any rate.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    Pulpstar said:

    Any sort of indoor gym class is a huge vector. Cardio outdoors. Gyms for lifting.
    Went past about thirty people in a room all huffing away on rowing machines yesterday. But hey, the door was open so I’m sure it was fine, right?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited September 2020
    That's not going to the fix the problem of senior opposition in the Lords, and the ex-Prime Mininsters tied to it outside parliament. It's not Autumn 2019, and the Tory party of old is down to its nucleus, playing with which will create some form of explosive results.
  • That will spoil Johnson's set piece rant about the Islington lawyer frustrating the will of the people and sucking up to Brussels.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    Leader, leader! Unfortunately Gary Glitter springs to mind. "You wanna be in my gang, my gang, my gang? etc..."
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    So what's our spread on the number of Tory rebels tonight? I'm opening the market with a spread of 28-32. (Not for money, just for fun).

    You need to make it clear if you mean Con MPs who vot against, or Con MPs who abstain. If it's the latter, how do you treat paired MPs who don't vote?

    If it's the former I would sell. I can't see many voting against for a second reading.
  • Is that the 2020 version of a dentist appointment?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    Leader, leader! Unfortunately Gary Glitter springs to mind. "You wanna be in my gang, my gang, my gang? etc..."
    That song carries with it quite a different meaning now!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Phil said:

    Went past about thirty people in a room all huffing away on rowing machines yesterday. But hey, the door was open so I’m sure it was fine, right?
    The one outdoor restriction that does actually make sense is private gardens. You're all out enjoying drinks, it starts to get a bit cold and before you know it everyone is in the house ! Less likely to happen in a park.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    One of the best things about BREXIT
    I just find it ironic that our free-market PM happily finds himself on Jeremy Corbyn's dark, windswept mountain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    One of the best things about BREXIT
    It is. But for me state aid means publicly owned utilities and infrastructure not Dominic Cummings running a cowboy tech hedge fund underwritten by the taxpayer.
  • Dura_Ace is mischievously thinking out loud on behalf of Priti Patel.

    Dura_Ace is great, he is the thinking poster's SeanT.!
    He's also a hot-shot at Geography, unlike some I could mention.
  • That makes it sound like they've chopped him up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited September 2020
    eristdoof said:

    You need to make it clear if you mean Con MPs who vot against, or Con MPs who abstain. If it's the latter, how do you treat paired MPs who don't vote?

    If it's the former I would sell. I can't see many voting against for a second reading.
    I reckon pairing should be done away with, have all votes done by proxy if someone can't physically be there. Pairing gives more power to the whip's office though - marginally likely rebels can be told "You're paired with Sir Keir" rather than asking Cox to abstain for himself and abstain in person for their proxy.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I would allow asylum seekers to work and contribute if only to avoid them being sucked into the black economy and being exploited by the people traffickers, who are thoroughly evil people. We are permitting / turning a blind eye to appalling exploitation and 21st century slavery. I also rather like what @rcs1000 has described as the Swiss approach.
    On this I can 100% agree with you.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    edited September 2020
    eristdoof said:

    That song carries with it quite a different meaning now!
    It certainly does, hence the 'unfortunately'.

    Airbrushed from history. I last heard it a couple of years ago at breakfast in a Cologne hotel.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    "Active consideration" here means "maybe, maybe not,

    ...

    probably not"
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited September 2020
    I also don't think Cummings would dare to remove the whip from May ; too much internal fallout and destabilisation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    Smart if so. Leave the Tories to bang on about Europe. Just like the good old days.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Must have got wind that the rebellion might be substantial then.
  • I also don't think Cummings would dare to remove the whip from May ; too much internal fallout and destabilisation.
    I think it would be delicious red meat if he did.

    Like Starmer removing Corbyn.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon pairing should be done away with, have all votes done by proxy if someone can't physically be there. Pairing gives more power to the whip's office though - marginally likely rebels can be told "You're paired with Sir Keir" rather than asking Cox to abstain for himself and abstain in person for their proxy.
    Pairing is archaic.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited September 2020

    I think it would be delicious red meat if he did.

    Like Starmer removing Corbyn.
    That did come to mind for me as well, but partly in the sense that neither is viable for either man.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    That will spoil Johnson's set piece rant about the Islington lawyer frustrating the will of the people and sucking up to Brussels.
    But he will still no doubt deliver it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited September 2020
    If the Tory rebellion is all abstention rather than votes against it's going to need ~96 rebels !
    So no chance the legislation gets defeated. With that calculation in mind, labour can oppose knowing the Gov't then completely owns the bill. If it was closer there'd be a potential Lab-whipped abstention I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    He's also a hot-shot at Geography, unlike some I could mention.
    He needs that sort of knowledge to outrun the rozzers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    North Carolina Stats given @Pulpstar has been slack

    Returned Accepted Ballots
    Dems: 14184
    GOP: 3385
    Other: 7318

    Requested Ballots
    CONSTITUTION 159
    DEMOCRATIC 388,711
    GREEN 333
    LIBERTARIAN 2,303
    REPUBLICAN 127,226
    UNAFFILIATED 239,325
    Grand Total 758,057


    Return Rate
    Dems: 3.6%
    GOP: 2.7%
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    It certainly does, hence the 'unfortunately'.

    Airbrushed from history. I last heard it a couple of years ago at breakfast in a Cologne hotel.
    Yes, I'm not sure, but I get the impression that "The Fall of Gary Glitter" is not so wel known in Germany.
  • eristdoof said:

    You need to make it clear if you mean Con MPs who vot against, or Con MPs who abstain. If it's the latter, how do you treat paired MPs who don't vote?

    If it's the former I would sell. I can't see many voting against for a second reading.
    Yes, I meant actively abstain or vote against. I agree it's hard to figure out how many are actively abstaining, although I suppose you can get an idea from the corresponding Labour total.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    IshmaelZ said:
    He'll claim they are all false positives.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Pairing is archaic.
    Isn't this stuff all suspended in favour of remote divisions atm?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    So what's our spread on the number of Tory rebels tonight? I'm opening the market with a spread of 28-32. (Not for money, just for fun).

    I'll sell that for 10 farthings a point if "rebel" means vote against.
  • kinabalu said:

    But he will still no doubt deliver it.
    He could adjust his usual quotation about an "ox on his tongue" to a "pox on his tongue".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    edited September 2020

    So what's our spread on the number of Tory rebels tonight? I'm opening the market with a spread of 28-32. (Not for money, just for fun).

    Quote a few MPs are drawing a distinction between Second Reading and amendments/Third Reading, so my guess is lower than that for tonight (Second Reading).

    Is abstention being counted as rebellion?
  • Boris needs to do away with the way Tory MPs are selected. Yes, he's orchestrated purges in the past, but too many are still showing independent thought. Probably best to abolish location associations altogether and have individuals apply to CCHQ in person. Dom vets and then allocates constituencies accordingly. There should also be a clause that means the MP is legally obliged to stand down at any time and force a by-election at the behest of the leadership.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    IshmaelZ said:

    Isn't this stuff all suspended in favour of remote divisions atm?
    I think it is, yes. Rees Mogg tried to get trad back but IIRC he was thwarted by a rebel alliance of common sense and reality.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eristdoof said:

    He'll claim they are all false positives.
    No he won't, this is just what he wants. They should have found he had a touch of the flu, easily put right with hot broth.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Alistair said:

    North Carolina Stats given @Pulpstar has been slack

    Returned Accepted Ballots
    Dems: 14184
    GOP: 3385
    Other: 7318

    Requested Ballots
    CONSTITUTION 159
    DEMOCRATIC 388,711
    GREEN 333
    LIBERTARIAN 2,303
    REPUBLICAN 127,226
    UNAFFILIATED 239,325
    Grand Total 758,057


    Return Rate
    Dems: 3.6%
    GOP: 2.7%

    North Carolina return stats - The Good
    Trafalgar polling - The bad
    Wisconsin courts - The ugly
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Like the new look -
  • eristdoof said:

    "Active consideration" here means "maybe, maybe not,

    ...

    probably not"
    But by saying it, even in a "maybe, maybe not" sense, the government will look weak if they don't do it. And it's not 2019- there isn't going to be another General Election any time soon. So losing the whip is a much less potent threat than last time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    That did come to mind for me as well, but partly in the sense that neither is viable for either man.
    You're right. I know these are "interesting times" and all that but some things - such as either May or Corbyn losing the whip - can safely be ruled out.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon pairing should be done away with, have all votes done by proxy if someone can't physically be there. Pairing gives more power to the whip's office though - marginally likely rebels can be told "You're paired with Sir Keir" rather than asking Cox to abstain for himself and abstain in person for their proxy.
    I agree with the idea of taking the pairing power away from the whips. My only worry with allowing absentee voting is the long term erosion of MPs voting in person. I think it is reasonable to expect MPs to be in the Palace of Westminster unless they have important governmental/parliamentry responsibilities outside of London or for health/family reasons. I have no idea how that can be effectively enforced though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Sure you will all join me in wishing Keir the very best

    Absolutely.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    But surely he can afford a private test? ;)
  • That did come to mind for me as well, but partly in the sense that neither is viable for either man.
    I was disappointed May wasn't amongst the rebels who lost the whip last year with Grieve, Ken Clarke et al.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited September 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Isn't this stuff all suspended in favour of remote divisions atm?
    The last vote I saw was the conga line round the palaces, quite a few proxy votes in that one. Are they back to remote divisions now ?
  • I very much like the new look but it still cuts off a comment at the bottom of the page for me and doesn't have the "show more" button for comments, so still need to use Vanilla to see older comments. Firefox on Windows if it matters, not tried on mobile yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited September 2020

    twitter.com/danielhewittitv/status/1305459077485678592?s=21

    I hope we aren't going to get the same nonsense as when Prince Charles, Boris or Gove got a test and some windbags in the media went nuts about how did they get a test, did they jump the queue, etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319

    This may be an ignorant question but are there any international waters that can reach France but not the UK? I wouldn't have thought there were.
    Sure, just tow them as far west as Brest.
  • BBC News - Coronavirus: Monoclonal antibodies to begin UK trial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54120753
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    Boris needs to do away with the way Tory MPs are selected. Yes, he's orchestrated purges in the past, but too many are still showing independent thought. Probably best to abolish location associations altogether and have individuals apply to CCHQ in person. Dom vets and then allocates constituencies accordingly. There should also be a clause that means the MP is legally obliged to stand down at any time and force a by-election at the behest of the leadership.

    Better to keep the local associations, but they need to submit the results in secret to CCHQ. If a proposed candidate is considered to be "unaligned with the interests of the party", the local association will be asked to reconsider. That way the control is centralised while still maintaining the illusion of grass roots influence.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    You can be clear that they are not doing what they would be doing if they were what you accuse them of being.
    Why are you so shy about saying what you would like to see happen, which is the question I asked you?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    BBC News - Coronavirus: Monoclonal antibodies to begin UK trial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54120753

    They are very clever monoclonal antibodies if they can carry out a clinical triaal.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    edited September 2020
    del
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    Cyclefree said:

    Why are you so shy about saying what you would like to see happen, which is the question I asked you?
    I am full of admiration that you could decipher Mr Blue's code. I still haven't a clue what he is on about.
  • dixiedean said:

    Must have got wind that the rebellion might be substantial then.
    Perhaps he is worried that he might be debagged and radished?
  • eristdoof said:

    Better to keep the local associations, but they need to submit the results in secret to CCHQ. If a proposed candidate is considered to be "unaligned with the interests of the party", the local association will be asked to reconsider. That way the control is centralised while still maintaining the illusion of grass roots influence.
    Isn't this how David Cameron kept Boris's dear old dad off the A-list?
This discussion has been closed.