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  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    You forget that many of us love London's cosmopolitan dynamism, and celebrate it. Hence why the metropolitan party of Labour did so well in the metropolis. Ukip seems to flourish in areas where there are few immigrants- paradoxical hey?

    I dont think its paradoxical at all, its perfectly logical

    Most White British people living in London probably were not born in London. They live there because they "embrace diversity etc", and fair play to them. A lot of people whose Grandparents called it home move away to a place that feels like the place they grew up in.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    My 4/6 on Labour to win Redcar is looking pretty good!
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    Retweeted by Joel Hills
    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 45m

    Nick Clegg having another great day. At Youth Centre he plays pool - and pots the white...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Clegg is going to need tactical voting from the Tories to keep him IN lol !
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    FrankBooth said:

    Neil said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Neil said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TSE - Are you still ridiculing my idea that Clegg could lose his seat? I have of course been pbs no.1 champion of that particular issue but its always been dismissed by those who know Sheffield Hallam like yourself. What do you think now?

    I'll happily take £50 at evens on the prospect if you're that confident about it.
    I'm not that confident. All I'm saying is that I've been ridiculed repeatedly for suggesting it.
    So you dont think it's going to happen and many posters have also said that they dont think it's going to happen. Everyone seems to be on the same page.
    It's a question of probabilities. I've raised the possibility of Clegg not winning next time in Hallam and the likes of TSE and Mark Senior have claimed the re is zero chance of it happening.

    The most significant thing about this poll is that it make people in Hallam believe that Clegg can lose and that it is Labour who have a chance of beating him. In other words he can forget tactical voting to keep the Tories out. I'd still make him favourite, I've only ever claimed he would have a fight on his hands. From what I read in the tables only 30% of people who voted for him last time are currently saying they will do so next time. For a deputy PM that is damning. The biggest problem for Labour is that only 75% of people who voted for Gordon Brown are still behind them. A strong Labour leader and Nick might be toast.
    You kept on making inaccurate assumptions about the make up of the voters of Sheffield Hallam.

    Such as it was full of students.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Some fascinating poll by Mori

    psos MORI @IpsosMORI · 1h

    The impact of a Labour or Conservative #GE2015 win? #immigration #tax #costofliving

    http://bit.ly/1nrkY9A
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    @Casino_royale - "If you try and explain it away, don't be surprised if UKIP continue to grow in a similar manner to how the SNP have in Scotland, to the point when they have sufficient influence to turn the whole political consensus on its head."

    The SNP had to decide whether it was a left or right wing party. UKIP needs to make that choice too at some stage.

    Why do they? They can put out their manifesto and people who agree with the direction of travel can vote for it or not. Its a free market. If some left wingers see things they like that outweigh bits they dont and vote UKIP there may be people on the right who do the same.
    An interesting point. Much the same, of course, is said here on PB of the SNP - often by people who rather wistfully hope it will disappear if it succeeds in winning a Yes vote. Though in this case the SNP doesn't seem to cover such a wide range of the political spectrum.

  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lewisham results are now available.

    That just leaves Bromley South in Tower Hamlets, and, guess what, they're not going to start counting until 6:30pm:

    "Joe Coules ‏@Joe_from_Bow 17m

    Bromley South ward count to resume at 18:30. #towerhamletslast http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27585346 …"

    twitter.com/Joe_from_Bow/status/471244493216563200
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    My 4/6 on Labour to win Redcar is looking pretty good!

    The Lib Dems won a by-election there last week. I am sure I heard Farron or someone declare Redcar to be the kind of place where they were holding on but I think a single by-election defence is fairly weak grounds to base that on!

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2014
    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, assisted places at private schoos for exceptional poor children, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I decided to print the entire ICM Lib Dem poll.

    It's still printing, there's 255 pages of the stuff.

    Glad it's a work printer.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelHardman: British Polling Council investigating that anonymous Lib Dem poll. 'We’ve never had a case quite like this' http://t.co/7Cr8WixVS4
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The British Polling Council rules state that its members must refer to the ‘client commissioning the survey’, and there is some suggestion that simply saying the client is a Lib Dem member isn’t quite sufficient. I’ve spoken to the BPC’s Secretary Nick Moon, who says the Council is examining ICM’s disclosure to see whether it complies with the rules. He says:

    ‘It is a little unclear, we are looking at it, but we’ve never had a case quite like this. It’s not clear whether the rule includes the actual individual.’

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/polling-council-investigates-anonymous-lib-dem-seats-survey/
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Predicted Council results by ICM Poll: (Hallam)

    Lib Dem 32%
    Labour 26%
    Con 18%
    Green 12%
    UKIP 11%

    Calculated Council results:

    LD 37.03
    LAB 24.09
    Con 9.28
    UKIP 15.35
    Green 11.53

    LD +5.03
    Lab -1.91
    Con -9
    Green +0.35
    UKIP +4.35
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
    Anecdote alert! I was talking to a group of public sector workers in Cambridge recently. They were naffed off with the Coalition (the meeting was about an aspect of Coalition policy and how it affects them) but seemed quite happy with Huppert personally (ie content to write to him as they felt he listened and was on their side). No idea if that has any significance but I wouldnt be shocked if he held on.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Neil said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
    I was talking to a group of public sector workers in Cambridge recently.
    Is that a euphemism?
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    isam said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    isam said:


    Casino_Royale said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Article on why UKIP didn't do well in London:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27585765

    C.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Article on why UKIP didn't do well in London:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27585765

    .


    .
    A city populated by immigrants, 2nd generation immigrants, and British people that were born far away (British immigrants) arent going to vote for a party that is popular with those unsettled by the pace of change in the country.

    A point I have tried to make many times. London has a large proportion of people that werent born there, whose parents live far away, and therefore dont have the same regard for conserving its community/roots in the way people in Doncaster do about their town. Because they arent from London it stands to reason that they dont feel the sadness at the changes in the same way I would if Hornchurch became unrecognisable from my childhood and my parents became uncomfortable living there.
    Does your definition of authentic Londoner coincide with those who vote UKIP?
    I didnt say authentic, and my "real Londoner" comments were a distraction. I genuinely didnt realise people were so proud to call themselves a Londoner just because they happened to live there now. I always assumed people thoiught deep down they were a "wherever they were brought up-er"

    The people living in Hackney, Newham, Tower Hamlets, Barking & Dagenham etc who are mostly BAME are born and bred Londoners in the main, and they are supporting a party that puts them first. The people who used to live there move away, normally to where I live, Havering, where there is a big UKIP vote.

    Havering is like the East End the BBC portray in EastEnders. I actually think it is racist of the BBC to portray the East End the way they do. Why not be more honest and have white British people as the minority/pubs closing down, lots of Asian shops and burqas etc? The BAME quota in EE has barely changed in 38 years and there isnt one Eastern European either. It is quite disgraceful really,. Maybe they think people wouldnt like the truth?

    Just speaking personally, given that I am now relatively settled in London, Londoner is probably as good a description as any other. I was actually born in Wales, but we moved when I was 2 years old, and I have subsequently lived in Selby, Istanbul, Hull, Darlington, Sheffield, Newcastle, Plymouth and Bristol. My football team is Middlesbrough (goes back to the Darlo days - and the excitement of the Bruce Rioch era). Questions of identity are fairly complex in my case, but I don't think I'm alone by any means.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
    I was talking to a group of public sector workers in Cambridge recently.
    Is that a euphemism?
    God only knows what it could be a euphemism for.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
    I was talking to a group of public sector workers in Cambridge recently.
    Is that a euphemism?
    God only knows what it could be a euphemism for.
    You might have seen this.

    But it does make the mind boggle, what they were up to in the bathroom

    Cork country band Crystal Swing delayed British singer Lily Allen’s concert by nearly two hours before a performance because they were locked in the bathroom.

    http://www.independent.ie/entertainment/music/lily-allen-reveals-crystal-swing-getting-stuck-in-bathroom-delayed-her-concert-by-hours-30232634.html
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SamCoates of the Times

    Looking through ICM Lib Dem crosstabs, tiny, tiny sub-samples. Calling Cambridge for Labour on the basis of 103 respondents vs. 80

    Yes, it looks to me as though Huppert has a good chance of hanging on.
    I was talking to a group of public sector workers in Cambridge recently.
    Is that a euphemism?
    God only knows what it could be a euphemism for.

    But it does make the mind boggle, what they were up to in the bathroom

    Let's not speculate about that too early in the day.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Amusing that UKIP's new Scottish MEP is perfectly happy to describe Salmond's administration as "a bunch of fascists":

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJIjgCCcD5c
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @Casino_Royale - No, the results are very significant, but they are not 'absolutely seismic'. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well in the circumstances, Labour recovered from its unbelievably bad 2009 result - a derisory 15.7%, remember, which was pretty seismic - the BNP vote collapsed and probably went to UKIP, the LibDem vote collapsed and part of it went to UKIP, and UKIP also probably picked up a little bit of vote share from very minor parties like the English Democrats.

    To put this all in perspective, in 1989 the Greens got well over half what UKIP got last week. How seismic was that?

    UKIP won well over 30% of the vote outside London in England. It came within a whisker of beating Labour in Wales. The LibDems were virtually wiped out. UKIP is the first party to win a national election in 100 years. It is the only UK political party to have elected representatives in all parts of the United Kingdom. It polled more votes in most regions of England in the Euros, than either Conservative or Labour polled at an equivalent level nationally in the locals. It nearly doubled its councillor base again this year. It beat Ed Miliband's party in his home town of Doncaster. It's done most of it in the North from a standing start.

    This. Is. SEISMIC.

    If you think that UKIP just mopped up all the protest voters, like a piece of crusty bread, then you are sorely mistaken.

    There is no telling what the real 'cap' to UKIP support is. Barely 10 years ago, a lot of their current voters were natural Conservative and Labour supporters. We'd have all been calling the 16% they polled then a few 'angry protest votes'. Yet here we are now.

    Yes, the Conservatives did better than expected and Labour were saved by London. But both parties are in trouble. They both were thoroughly thumped in their heartlands. If you try and explain it away, don't be surprised if UKIP continue to grow in a similar manner to how the SNP have in Scotland, to the point when they have sufficient influence to turn the whole political consensus on its head.
    This "Labour were saved by London" phrase of the day does make me laugh. As if London doesn't count or won't be voting in next year's general election. I suppose you could say the Tories were saved by the South East, although they couldn't even win that region, but mysteriously we don't hear any reference to that here. I suppose it makes a change from hearing that the Conservatives won the 2005 election in England as we used to ad infinitum. We can all lop bits off the country to claim we won an election - the Liberal Democrats won the 2005 election in Cornwall - but the overall result is all that matters and on Thursday UKIP came top and the Tories came third.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @Casino

    We might lose a referendum on hanging too, and I don't want one of them either.

    We are not bloody Switzerland - we are a representative democracy. Enough already of the referendums!

    If there was sufficient public demand for one, I would welcome a referendum on reintroducing capital punishment. I would be on the NO side, and believe that NO would win.

    You seem keen on representative democracy, so let me put this to you: in an election about to EU, to elect representatives to the EU, well over half the votes have gone to parties who wish to either renegotiate our relationship with the EU, or withdraw from the EU. Over 60% of our MEPs now also advocate these views. All of them want a referendum on our membership of the EU within (a maximum) of 43 months.

    Parties favouring the EU status quo, or more Europe, achieved 35% of the vote and 34% of the MEPs. Labour is included within that.

    What do you think Labour's response should be to this?


  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2014
    asjohnstone said:

    JackW said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Nothing wrong with Tony, best post war PM.

    Post Iraq war ?!?


    Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.

    I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.

    Otherwise, all good.
    He and his side kick brown didn't see the bankruptcy of this country coming,did he (no more boom and bust crap labour use to shout) or his open door policy on immigration which as led to the bnp getting elected.

    In history books,Tony Blair will go down as one of the worst PM's to represent this country,great actor though with crap opposition.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameschappers: Sue Cameron wrote in March: 'Lord Oakeshott is commissioning polling to find which vulnerable seats his party should flood with activists'

    @Sean_Kemp: LD party press office once considered getting T-shirts with Oakeshott's face and the words 'Senior Parliamentarian': http://t.co/4SO9xMw0Ms
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    GIN1138 said:

    Do we get the Populus Monday poll today? I know we're expecting Lord A's poll this afternoon.

    We should be getting them both today.

    I'll do a thread on them this evening, assuming nothing major happens between now and 8pm
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ICM Publish the data tables

    http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/lib-dem-constituency-polling

    and here

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_4polls.pdf

    Britain's very lucky to have the British Polling Council and great pollsters like ICM. A lot of countries could learn from this.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
    That's kinda the point. 'As far as I know'. And you're (AFAIK) a committed kipper.
    I'm just demonstrating how this outbreak of voting for a party with no clear direction should be countered.
    If you're happy with that, carry on kipping. Of course I don't expect you to write and cost the manifesto, but it would be nice if some of the Kippage at least gave it some cursory thought before plunging the country into meltdown.

    Ultimately the electorate will have to decide if it wants undefined change or if What it really wants is someone who knows what they are doing to listen to them.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Giro D'Italia passing over 3 huge mountains today, Stelvio, Gava and Martello.

    4319 metres of vertical ascent.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Richard - wrong. A referendum increases economic uncertainty as the BOOers might win and pull us out. If the Tories thought it would end uncertainly why have they resisted holding one? Answer: because Cam is sensibly europhilic and knows the instability a referendum would cause. He has been bounced into it by the Right.

    No, the reason is exactly what I have been saying since 2008. A referendum is not winnable for the Out side, therefore holding a referendum without renegotiation will inevitably cement everything which is wrong about the EU.

    During the BBC's election coverage Vernon was VERY depressed and claimed it was 50/50 whether we'd be OUT within five years!
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    edited May 2014
    SeanT said:

    HortenceWithering said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @Casino_Royale - No, the results are very significant, but they are not 'absolutely seismic'. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well in the circumstances, Labour recovered from its unbelievably bad 2009 result - a derisory 15.7%, remember, which was pretty seismic - the BNP vote collapsed and probably went to UKIP, the LibDem vote collapsed and part of it went to UKIP, and UKIP also probably picked up a little bit of vote share from very minor parties like the English Democrats.

    To put this all in perspective, in 1989 the Greens got well over half what UKIP got last week. How seismic was that?

    UKIP won .

    This "Labour were saved by London" phrase of the day does make me laugh. As if London doesn't count or won't be voting in next year's general election. I suppose you could say the Tories were saved by the South East, although they couldn't even win that region, but mysteriously we don't hear any reference to that here. I suppose it makes a change from hearing that the Conservatives won the 2005 election in England as we used to ad infinitum. We can all lop bits off the country to claim we won an election - the Liberal Democrats won the 2005 election in Cornwall - but the overall result is all that matters and on Thursday UKIP came top and the Tories came third.
    And on Thursday Labour became the first main opposition party, in 30 years, to lose the Euro elections. And you were facing a COALITION, so you should have done BETTER than normal.

    "The established parties at Westminster had been bracing themselves for a Ukip victory as opinion polls gave it a regular, if not wholly consistent or decisive lead over Labour. But the results also showed that Labour had underperformed against poll predictions, a result that will add to existing nervousness in the Labour party about the quality of Ed Miliband's leadership. The Labour belief that Ukip is causing disproportionate damage to the Conservatives looks increasingly dubious."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake

    Thursday was poor for the Tories, calamitous for the Lib Dems. But it was also pretty damn appalling for Labour
    The Hyperbolist-in-Chief speaks.

    Harrumph away but nowhere (or should that be NOWHERE) in that post did I say otherwise.
  • Oliver_PB
    Oliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited May 2014
    I'm genuinely surprised ICM published the poll without the name. They surely must have known it was against the BPC code?

    Anyway, the sample sizes are pretty low, making the margin of error pretty high. Still, it's enough to confirm that Sheffield Hallam is, on paper, a three-way marginal.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Scott_P said:

    @jameschappers: Sue Cameron wrote in March: 'Lord Oakeshott is commissioning polling to find which vulnerable seats his party should flood with activists'

    @Sean_Kemp: LD party press office once considered getting T-shirts with Oakeshott's face and the words 'Senior Parliamentarian': http://t.co/4SO9xMw0Ms

    It's got to be Lord Oakeshott. He's the only one with enough money and who hates Clegg enough to do it.


  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    ThomasNashe said:

    isam said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    isam said:


    Casino_Royale said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Article on why UKIP didn't do well in London:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27585765

    C.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Article on why UKIP didn't do well in London:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27585765

    .


    .
    A city populated by immigrants, 2nd generation immigrants, and British people that were .
    Does your definition of authentic Londoner coincide with those who vote UKIP?
    I didnt say authentic, and my "real Londoner" comments were a distraction. I genuinely didnt realise people were so proud to call themselves a Londoner just because they happened to live there now. I always assumed people thoiught deep down they were a "wherever they were brought up-er"

    The people living in Hackney, Newham, Tower Hamlets, Barking & Dagenham etc who are mostly BAME are born and bred Londoners in the main, and they are supporting a party that puts them first. The people who used to live there move away, normally to where I live, Havering, where there is a big UKIP vote.

    Havering is like the East End the BBC portray in EastEnders. I actually think it is racist of the BBC to portray the East End the way they do. Why not be more honest and have white British people as the minority/pubs closing down, lots of Asian shops and burqas etc? The BAME quota in EE has barely changed in 38 years and there isnt one Eastern European either. It is quite disgraceful really,. Maybe they think people wouldnt like the truth?

    Just speaking personally, given that I am now relatively settled in London, Londoner is probably as good a description as any other. I was actually born in Wales, but we moved when I was 2 years old, and I have subsequently lived in Selby, Istanbul, Hull, Darlington, Sheffield, Newcastle, Plymouth and Bristol. My football team is Middlesbrough (goes back to the Darlo days - and the excitement of the Bruce Rioch era). Questions of identity are fairly complex in my case, but I don't think I'm alone by any means.
    Fair enough.

    All I tried to do is explain that people who have family roots in an area are more likely to vote for a party that is resistant to the fast pace of social change. If you move into an area, you dont have that same feeling of "I hope my parents arent discomforted by everything changing" because your parents are in sleepysville where nothing changes!

    *Not necessarily anyone heres parents in particular, I hope you get the gist
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Richard - wrong. A referendum increases economic uncertainty as the BOOers might win and pull us out. If the Tories thought it would end uncertainly why have they resisted holding one? Answer: because Cam is sensibly europhilic and knows the instability a referendum would cause. He has been bounced into it by the Right.

    No, the reason is exactly what I have been saying since 2008. A referendum is not winnable for the Out side, therefore holding a referendum without renegotiation will inevitably cement everything which is wrong about the EU.

    During the BBC's election coverage Vernon was VERY depressed and claimed it was 50/50 whether we'd be OUT within five years!
    It'll be dead within ten
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Which by my reckoning of an electorate of 70k, gives a Margin of Error of 5.52%

    Hmm fwiw I have it at 95% certainty of 5.49%, without using the electorate.

    Call it close enough, I don't want to go and try and understand the maths again.
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Neil - as I have been entirely open about it, of course it's bloody transparent FFS.

    And I repeat - we are not Switzerland and therefore NOT a direct democracy.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    In politics as in life, perception is more important than fact.

    There is a perception that UKIP is racist or at least quasi-racist - the Tories have historically had the same problem as evidenced by their BME vote share in various GEs.

    When parties 'bang on' about immigration, it is a BIG turn-off for ethnic minorities (however justified any concerns might be).

    My own view is that all parties have an element of racism - Labour the least and UKIP the most (of the 4 main parties). Labour itself has let down the BME community very badly over the years, e.g. the Iraq war - they have been complacent and are taking BME votes for granted - just because they are the 'least bad' doesn't make them good...
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Oliver_PB said:

    I'm genuinely surprised ICM published the poll without the name. They surely must have known it was against the BPC code?


    Data Protection Act probably. I guess ICM will get away with it this time and in future all pollster clients will have to sign up specifically to allowing themselves to be named if their private polling is leaked.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Which by my reckoning of an electorate of 70k, gives a Margin of Error of 5.52%

    Hmm fwiw I have it at 95% certainty of 5.49%, without using the electorate.
    Are we really going to argue over 0.03%?

    Oh wait, this is PB, aka pedantry central.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    HortenceWithering said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @Casino_Royale - No, the results are very significant, but they are not 'absolutely seismic'. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well in the circumstances, Labour recovered from its unbelievably bad 2009 result - a derisory 15.7%, remember, which was pretty seismic - the BNP vote collapsed and probably went to UKIP, the LibDem vote collapsed and part of it went to UKIP, and UKIP also probably picked up a little bit of vote share from very minor parties like the English Democrats.

    To put this all in perspective, in 1989 the Greens got well over half what UKIP got last week. How seismic was that?


    This "Labour were saved by London" phrase of the day does make me laugh. As if London doesn't count or won't be voting in next year's general election. I suppose you could say the Tories were saved by the South East, although they couldn't even win that region, but mysteriously we don't hear any reference to that here. I suppose it makes a change from hearing that the Conservatives won the 2005 election in England as we used to ad infinitum. We can all lop bits off the country to claim we won an election - the Liberal Democrats won the 2005 election in Cornwall - but the overall result is all that matters and on Thursday UKIP came top and the Tories came third.
    Jeremy Vine had an interesting graphic early on Monday morning. It showed which party had topped the EU poll by local authority area. He contrasted it with 2009, when almost all areas were Tory.

    Labour were solid in London, the Welsh valleys, Oxford, Cambridge, Scottish central belt and the urban north-east.

    UKIP had virtually all the south-west, the fringe of the southern English coastal towns, Kent, the vast majority of the East coast, the Welsh marches, the old 'soft Tory/Lib-Dem' parts of Wales, North Wales, most Northern medium sized-towns and sizeable chunks of the Midlands.

    The Tories were reduced to the stockbroker belt, and their heartlands in the English shires, with a splash around the Scottish borders. The blue was a big-ish island in the middle/south of England, virtually surrounded by purple.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    JonathanD said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    I'm genuinely surprised ICM published the poll without the name. They surely must have known it was against the BPC code?


    Data Protection Act probably. I guess ICM will get away with it this time and in future all pollster clients will have to sign up specifically to allowing themselves to be named if their private polling is leaked.

    What we really need to do is to get a few PBers to change their names via deed poll to Boris Johnson and Ed Balls and commission some polls.

    So "our" Boris Johnson commissions a poll on wondering if the Mayor of London would do a better job at the election than David Cameron.

    And our "Ed Balls" commissions a poll on wondering if Yvette Cooper would do a better job at the election than Ed Miliband
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Traditional formal logic

    There is genuine concern over immigration
    UKIP are racist
    You have genuine concern over immigration
    You vote UKIP
    Therefore you are racist.

    That's why it was and is a stupid line of attack. Call people racist when they have genuine concerns and they will cling tighter to UKIP and stick two fingers up at you.

    It's not rocket science.
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Sean

    At least Labour actually won on their home ground of London.

    The Tories couldn't even win in the SE!
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BobaFett said:

    @Sean

    At least Labour actually won on their home ground of London.

    The Tories couldn't even win in the SE!

    Yeah, Labour have been storming the capital lately with their mayor, Boris.
    When Dave has his majority, the 4 London MEPs can tell everyone how the people of Merton throw petals in their path
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
    That's kinda the point. 'As far as I know'. And you're (AFAIK) a committed kipper.
    I'm just demonstrating how this outbreak of voting for a party with no clear direction should be countered.
    If you're happy with that, carry on kipping. Of course I don't expect you to write and cost the manifesto, but it would be nice if some of the Kippage at least gave it some cursory thought before plunging the country into meltdown.

    Ultimately the electorate will have to decide if it wants undefined change or if What it really wants is someone who knows what they are doing to listen to them.
    Well they havent written the manifesto yet (neither have any other party), but I watch a lot of their interviews and read almost every article. Steven Woolfe is the guy in charge of UKIP economics.. look him up and see what he has to say. Farage talked about Grammar schools and assisted places last week.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @OllyGrender: A first in LibDem history here MOakeshott "not returning calls for comment" HT @IsabelHardman: http://t.co/iRP1XcPV0g #GreatDays

    @charlotteahenry: If @oakeshottm revealed to have funded that poll, and leaked it, he should lose the party whip/membership.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
    That's kinda the point. 'As far as I know'. And you're (AFAIK) a committed kipper.
    I'm just demonstrating how this outbreak of voting for a party with no clear direction should be countered.
    If you're happy with that, carry on kipping. Of course I don't expect you to write and cost the manifesto, but it would be nice if some of the Kippage at least gave it some cursory thought before plunging the country into meltdown.

    Ultimately the electorate will have to decide if it wants undefined change or if What it really wants is someone who knows what they are doing to listen to them.
    Well they havent written the manifesto yet (neither have any other party), but I watch a lot of their interviews and read almost every article. Steven Woolfe is the guy in charge of UKIP economics.. look him up and see what he has to say. Farage talked about Grammar schools and assisted places last week.
    Solid advice. I was reasonably impressed with Woolfe as it goes, though he didn't have much meat to tuck into. He's better than nincompoop Nigel for sure.
    As fir your earlier comment about conversion, don't worry, I might dislike UKIP as it stands, but if the Tories implode I'd vote UKIP in a heartbeat to stop Ed, policies or no policies.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Oakeshott gone by dawn? We can but hope. Odious little turd
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    one of the worms from teh woodwork. http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-05-27/senior-bristol-lib-dem-joins-calls-for-clegg-to-go/
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    edited May 2014
    When Tories here drone on about Iraq they are asking us to suspend belief and imagine that had, god forbid, IDS been Prime MInister he would have been any less up Bush's backside and in favour of war than Blair was. As if. What does that matter though when presented with the opportunity to type ELEVEN in block capitals.

    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone. Any cowardly fool can do it - as this site so clearly demonstrates.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    What happened to Sir Roderick's piece?

    Was it amputated?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    dyedwoolie said:

    Oakeshott gone by dawn? We can but hope. Odious little turd

    If he get's kicked out, presumably he'll rejoin Labour? This could be the start of the SDP'ers going home?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    HortenceWithering said:


    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone.

    Like Ed on Syria...
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    I'm having a chuckle to myself at the memory of Vince after they had Ming put down. Standing there like an old vampire, fresh from a kill. What wouldn't they give for the heady days of his leadership now?
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    murali_s said:

    In politics as in life, perception is more important than fact.

    There is a perception that UKIP is racist or at least quasi-racist - the Tories have historically had the same problem as evidenced by their BME vote share in various GEs.

    When parties 'bang on' about immigration, it is a BIG turn-off for ethnic minorities (however justified any concerns might be).

    My own view is that all parties have an element of racism - Labour the least and UKIP the most (of the 4 main parties). Labour itself has let down the BME community very badly over the years, e.g. the Iraq war - they have been complacent and are taking BME votes for granted - just because they are the 'least bad' doesn't make them good...


    You don't think the British BME are worried about poor unskilled immigration coming into they area's in large numbers ? (just like the area I live)
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Which by my reckoning of an electorate of 70k, gives a Margin of Error of 5.52%

    Hmm fwiw I have it at 95% certainty of 5.49%, without using the electorate.
    Are we really going to argue over 0.03%?

    Oh wait, this is PB, aka pedantry central.
    I was just hoping I was using the right equations.

    As a side note, the published poll doesn't use ICM's turnout weightings but the tables are there in the detail. If you apply them then the sample size drops even lower.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    dyedwoolie said:

    I'm having a chuckle to myself at the memory of Vince after they had Ming put down. Standing there like an old vampire, fresh from a kill. What wouldn't they give for the heady days of his leadership now?

    @tnewtondunn: The man of the moment? http://t.co/voChinpaCh
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
    That's kinda the point. 'As far as I know'. And you're (AFAIK) a committed kipper.
    I'm just demonstrating how this outbreak of voting for a party with no clear direction should be countered.
    If you're happy with that, carry on kipping. Of course I don't expect you to write and cost the manifesto, but it would be nice if some of the Kippage at least gave it some cursory thought before plunging the country into meltdown.

    Ultimately the electorate will have to decide if it wants undefined change or if What it really wants is someone who knows what they are doing to listen to them.
    Well they havent written the manifesto yet (neither have any other party), but I watch a lot of their interviews and read almost every article. Steven Woolfe is the guy in charge of UKIP economics.. look him up and see what he has to say. Farage talked about Grammar schools and assisted places last week.
    Sam

    I am not convinced that UKIP need to write a manifesto.

    As for their economic policy it is likely to be clear and simple: build new motorways and get the trains to run on time.

  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    dyedwoolie said:

    I'm having a chuckle to myself at the memory of Vince after they had Ming put down. Standing there like an old vampire, fresh from a kill. What wouldn't they give for the heady days of his leadership now?

    Given iirc we were on 12% with Ming I think even by today's standards the days weren't that heady.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Oakeshott gone by dawn? We can but hope. Odious little turd

    If he get's kicked out, presumably he'll rejoin Labour? This could be the start of the SDP'ers going home?
    Yes.
    It's crap here
    Let's go home, it was crap there, too, but it was bigger
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Saw Clegg on the news. Look's like he's pulled himself together somewhat.

    A large gin, half a dozen valium and a good nights sleep can do wonders...
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    edited May 2014
    Scott_P said:

    HortenceWithering said:


    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone.

    Like Ed on Syria...
    Yes, like Ed on Syria.

    Well done on a original post that didn't feature someone else's tweet by the way. You can do it if you try.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    GIN1138 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Oakeshott gone by dawn? We can but hope. Odious little turd

    If he get's kicked out, presumably he'll rejoin Labour? This could be the start of the SDP'ers going home?
    The ones that would go have gone already.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    AveryLP said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Let's say UKIP win 50 seats. Aside from in/out, who are they, what do they believe, what are they signing up to? Is a UKIP parliamentary party even leadable? How do you move from being single issue anti-establishment to being part of the club? You can't be NOTA and be establishment simultaneously.
    Punk was cool, punk didn't give a sh!t, UKIPs problem is that they do, but they're not sure about what.

    Lower taxes for everyone, smaller state, grammar schools, less foreign aid, less bombing of foreign countries we have no stake in...
    None of which have been elucidated in terms of policy proposal, cost, and the like.
    Lower taxes for everyone.... So reducing income tax, VAT, corporation tax, stamp duty and then reducing the deficit how? By not sending socks to Romanian orphans?
    Grammar schools...... And what to run alongside them? Secondary modern prisons or a proper system of schooling and vocational colleges? And how long to implement?
    Is it worth answering questions from you?

    You asked, I answered, and now you want me to write and cost the manifesto for you?

    As far as I know they will cut public sector jobs much more than the Coalition, they will not tax the minimum wage, will increase the 40% threshold.

    If you like how things are then vote Tory, I am not trying to convert you. No need to start talking about secondary modern prisons, Romanain orphans etc.
    That's kinda the point. 'As far as I know'. And you're (AFAIK) a committed kipper.
    I'm just demonstrating how this outbreak of voting for a party with no clear direction should be countered.
    If you're happy with that, carry on kipping. Of course I don't expect you to write and cost the manifesto, but it would be nice if some of the Kippage at least gave it some cursory thought before plunging the country into meltdown.

    Ultimately the electorate will have to decide if it wants undefined change or if What it really wants is someone who knows what they are doing to listen to them.
    Well they havent written the manifesto yet (neither have any other party), but I watch a lot of their interviews and read almost every article. Steven Woolfe is the guy in charge of UKIP economics.. look him up and see what he has to say. Farage talked about Grammar schools and assisted places last week.
    Sam

    I am not convinced that UKIP need to write a manifesto.

    As for their economic policy it is likely to be clear and simple: build new motorways and get the trains to run on time.

    "Build new motorways" - sounds like a Keynesian fiscal stimulus. Sanity at last in the UKIP ranks.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Tykejohnno said:

    murali_s said:

    In politics as in life, perception is more important than fact.

    There is a perception that UKIP is racist or at least quasi-racist - the Tories have historically had the same problem as evidenced by their BME vote share in various GEs.

    When parties 'bang on' about immigration, it is a BIG turn-off for ethnic minorities (however justified any concerns might be).

    My own view is that all parties have an element of racism - Labour the least and UKIP the most (of the 4 main parties). Labour itself has let down the BME community very badly over the years, e.g. the Iraq war - they have been complacent and are taking BME votes for granted - just because they are the 'least bad' doesn't make them good...


    You don't think the British BME are worried about poor unskilled immigration coming into they area's in large numbers ? (just like the area I live)
    An article about a survey from over three years ago. Its the reason UKIP are doing well

    "Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery, according to the largest survey into identity and extremism conducted in the UK.

    According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". "

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: How bollocks works: UKIP lose in Scotland = Great News for Yes. UKIP win in Scotland = Great News for Yes. Nationalism is unfalsifiable.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2014
    HortenceWithering said:

    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone. .

    In the case of Iraq, that argument rather falls down on the objection that Saddam had stopped gassing his own people, and in any case the country was crawling with UN weapons inspectors.

    On every count, no matter how you look at it, the invasion of Iraq was an unmitigated disaster, most notably for the people of Iraq. It was certainly a disaster for Western interests and for the fight against terrorism.

    Even given all that, one might have been able to forgive Blair if it had been an honest mistake where he gave an honest account to parliament of the pros and cons, but made an error of judgement in weighing them up. That he deliberately took the UK into this disaster on a false prospectus is just extraordinary.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Which by my reckoning of an electorate of 70k, gives a Margin of Error of 5.52%

    Hmm fwiw I have it at 95% certainty of 5.49%, without using the electorate.
    Are we really going to argue over 0.03%?

    Oh wait, this is PB, aka pedantry central.
    I was just hoping I was using the right equations.

    As a side note, the published poll doesn't use ICM's turnout weightings but the tables are there in the detail. If you apply them then the sample size drops even lower.
    As much as I love polling, I don't think I have the energy to go through all 255 pages of that poll.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some fascinating poll by Mori

    psos MORI @IpsosMORI · 1h

    The impact of a Labour or Conservative #GE2015 win? #immigration #tax #costofliving

    http://bit.ly/1nrkY9A

    Particularly interesting sentence:
    "Just a quarter (24%) of Liberal Democrats find it very important who wins, compared with 51% of UKIP and Conservative supporters and 57% of Labour supporters."

    I'd think that's a good marker for core vote=certainty to vote + unwillingness to consider switching.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 16s

    Labour MP .@margarethodge says her party in the past "failed to listen, hear and respond" to concerns about immigration #wato
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    HortenceWithering said:

    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone. .

    In the case of Iraq, that argument rather falls down on the objection that Saddam had stopped gassing his own people, and in any case the country was crawling with UN weapons inspectors.

    On every count, no matter how you look at it, the invasion of Iraq was an unmitigated disaster, most notably for the people of Iraq. It was certainly a disaster for Western interests and for the fight against terrorism.

    Even given all that, one might have been able to forgive Blair if it had been an honest mistake where he gave an honest account to parliament of the pros and cons, but made an error of judgement in weighing them up. That he deliberately took the UK into this disaster on a false prospectus is just extraordinary.

    I see you conveniently ignore the point about IDS.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    dr_spyn said:

    one of the worms from teh woodwork. http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-05-27/senior-bristol-lib-dem-joins-calls-for-clegg-to-go/

    Rather than worrying about getting rid of Nick, he really should deal with that awful syrup.
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: How bollocks works: UKIP lose in Scotland = Great News for Yes. UKIP win in Scotland = Great News for Yes. Nationalism is unfalsifiable.

    I spoke too soon.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Who commissioned the poll. There's one name being mentioned but OGH has different ideas if you look at his activity on twitter. It may well have been more than one person. Don't foget a former Lib Dem MP turned jailbird who's rumoured to have big pockets too.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2014
    HortenceWithering said:

    I see you conveniently ignore the point about IDS.

    Blair, not IDS, was Prime Minister. It is true that IDS, rather naively, made the mistake of believing that no British Prime Minister would mislead parliament on a matter of this gravity. So did many people, including me. It was an assumption which would have been true for any PM of recent memory before Blair, but, yes, it is true that the corruption of the body politic by New Labour was widely underestimated at the time. Not any more, of course.
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    HortenceWithering said:

    Scott_P said:

    HortenceWithering said:


    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone.

    Like Ed on Syria...
    Yes, like Ed on Syria.

    Well done on a original post that didn't feature someone else's tweet by the way. You can do it if you try.
    I've no doubt that in 1916, you would have been happy patrolling the streets handing out white feathers.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some fascinating poll by Mori

    psos MORI @IpsosMORI · 1h

    The impact of a Labour or Conservative #GE2015 win? #immigration #tax #costofliving

    http://bit.ly/1nrkY9A

    Particularly interesting sentence:
    "Just a quarter (24%) of Liberal Democrats find it very important who wins, compared with 51% of UKIP and Conservative supporters and 57% of Labour supporters."

    I'd think that's a good marker for core vote=certainty to vote + unwillingness to consider switching.
    It's fascinating, but I'm always leery of saying something will translate if we don't have past evidence of it translating.

    There's logic, and then there's how people actually work.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Q: A Lib Dem and a Tory are standing on the edge of a cliff. Who do you push first?

    A: The Tory. Business before pleasure.

    Courtesy of the Staggers blog 27th May 2014
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    HortenceWithering said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    HortenceWithering said:

    It's so easy to sit on your fat backside in a free, liberal, western democracy and rant that a tyrant who gassed tens of thousands of his own people should have been left alone. .

    In the case of Iraq, that argument rather falls down on the objection that Saddam had stopped gassing his own people, and in any case the country was crawling with UN weapons inspectors.

    On every count, no matter how you look at it, the invasion of Iraq was an unmitigated disaster, most notably for the people of Iraq. It was certainly a disaster for Western interests and for the fight against terrorism.

    Even given all that, one might have been able to forgive Blair if it had been an honest mistake where he gave an honest account to parliament of the pros and cons, but made an error of judgement in weighing them up. That he deliberately took the UK into this disaster on a false prospectus is just extraordinary.

    I see you conveniently ignore the point about IDS.
    Er the IDS bit was your hypothecatiing about him being PM when he wasn't!
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    isam said:



    Havering is like the East End the BBC portray in EastEnders. I actually think it is racist of the BBC to portray the East End the way they do. Why not be more honest and have white British people as the minority/pubs closing down, lots of Asian shops and burqas etc? The BAME quota in EE has barely changed in 38 years and there isnt one Eastern European either. It is quite disgraceful really,. Maybe they think people wouldnt like the truth?

    I have long thought that a really edgy TV programme to make would be one called EastEnders but which as you say portrays it as it actually now is, without subtitles.

    It would be a step too far for the rabidly leftist Establishment BBC to do this, of course, but yeah, EE is as accurate as Dick Van Dyke's cockney accent and for the same reasons.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    On the euro elections , William hill and Ladbrokes have settled the markets very quickly .They managed to do it yesterday morning.
    Paddy Power on the other hand have still to settle them.
    Something to look out for if wanting ot place a bet when odds are the same
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    HortenceWithering said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: How bollocks works: UKIP lose in Scotland = Great News for Yes. UKIP win in Scotland = Great News for Yes. Nationalism is unfalsifiable.

    I spoke too soon.
    Not too soon, Hortence, too often.

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    isam said:



    Havering is like the East End the BBC portray in EastEnders. I actually think it is racist of the BBC to portray the East End the way they do. Why not be more honest and have white British people as the minority/pubs closing down, lots of Asian shops and burqas etc? The BAME quota in EE has barely changed in 38 years and there isnt one Eastern European either. It is quite disgraceful really,. Maybe they think people wouldnt like the truth?

    I have long thought that a really edgy TV programme to make would be one called EastEnders but which as you say portrays it as it actually now is, without subtitles.

    It would be a step too far for the rabidly leftist Establishment BBC to do this, of course, but yeah, EE is as accurate as Dick Van Dyke's cockney accent and for the same reasons.
    How's our bet going Bondi?
  • Gaius
    Gaius Posts: 227
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    You forget that many of us love London's cosmopolitan dynamism, and celebrate it. Hence why the metropolitan party of Labour did so well in the metropolis. Ukip seems to flourish in areas where there are few immigrants- paradoxical hey?

    I dont think its paradoxical at all, its perfectly logical

    Most White British people living in London probably were not born in London. They live there because they "embrace diversity etc", and fair play to them. A lot of people whose Grandparents called it home move away to a place that feels like the place they grew up in.
    No they don't.

    They live in London because thats where their job is.

  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    David Wyllie ‏@journodave · 14 secs
    Alex Salmond hit the ball, and in true Scots fashion, the ball hit him back http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alex-salmond-pr-gaffe-football-pictures-appear-to-show-scottish-first-minister-hit-in-the-face-9439760.html … pic.twitter.com/QxukBQcVse

    hahahaha
  • HortenceWithering
    HortenceWithering Posts: 145
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    HortenceWithering said:

    I see you conveniently ignore the point about IDS.

    Blair, not IDS, was Prime Minister. It is true that IDS, rather naively, made the mistake of believing that no British Prime Minister would mislead parliament on a matter of this gravity. So did many people, including me. It was an assumption which would have been true for any PM of recent memory before Blair, but, yes, it is true that the corruption of the body politic by New Labour was widely underestimated at the time. Not any more, of course.

    It's so easy to be an armchair general with hindsight isn't it ?
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    O/T but you might be interested... Currently trying to collate all the regional sub-results for the European Elections in the North-West Region. Other than getting very frustrated with councils for not putting the data online / putting it in rubbish format (Results as a JPEG, really?!) I have (so far) found the following council areas where 'UKIP' won:

    Carlisle (UKIP 29.6%, Con 28.3%, Lab 25.2%)
    Blackpool (UKIP 33.9%, Con 22.4%, Lab 28.3%)
    Hyndburn (UKIP 34.6%, Con 20.0%, Lab 32.2%)
    Lancaster (UKIP 26.7%, Con 24.7%, Lab 24.7%)
    Wyre (UKIP 35.4%, Con 31.6%, Lab 19.7%)
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Tykejohnno said:

    murali_s said:

    In politics as in life, perception is more important than fact.

    There is a perception that UKIP is racist or at least quasi-racist - the Tories have historically had the same problem as evidenced by their BME vote share in various GEs.

    When parties 'bang on' about immigration, it is a BIG turn-off for ethnic minorities (however justified any concerns might be).

    My own view is that all parties have an element of racism - Labour the least and UKIP the most (of the 4 main parties). Labour itself has let down the BME community very badly over the years, e.g. the Iraq war - they have been complacent and are taking BME votes for granted - just because they are the 'least bad' doesn't make them good...


    You don't think the British BME are worried about poor unskilled immigration coming into they area's in large numbers ? (just like the area I live)
    Yes, but it's the slippery slope that one has to be fearful of. The path from legitimate concerns over immigration to rampant hate filled paranoia is a lot shorter that we think.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    HortenceWithering said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    HortenceWithering said:

    I see you conveniently ignore the point about IDS.

    Blair, not IDS, was Prime Minister. It is true that IDS, rather naively, made the mistake of believing that no British Prime Minister would mislead parliament on a matter of this gravity. So did many people, including me. It was an assumption which would have been true for any PM of recent memory before Blair, but, yes, it is true that the corruption of the body politic by New Labour was widely underestimated at the time. Not any more, of course.

    It's so easy to be an armchair general with hindsight isn't it ?
    Do you do anything apart from moan about other posters?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    ToryJim said:

    dr_spyn said:

    one of the worms from teh woodwork. http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-05-27/senior-bristol-lib-dem-joins-calls-for-clegg-to-go/

    Rather than worrying about getting rid of Nick, he really should deal with that awful syrup.
    Maybe he bought it from Fabricant?

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Slackbladder said:

    David Wyllie ‏@journodave · 14 secs
    Alex Salmond hit the ball, and in true Scots fashion, the ball hit him back http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alex-salmond-pr-gaffe-football-pictures-appear-to-show-scottish-first-minister-hit-in-the-face-9439760.html … pic.twitter.com/QxukBQcVse

    hahahaha

    I think this is a better pic, so much potential.

    Deffo going to use this in a future thread

    Helen Lewis ‏@helenlewis 7m

    @GeneralBoles Michael Flatley... You know you want to

    pic.twitter.com/rVVi5VQdXB
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2014
    HortenceWithering said:

    It's so easy to be an armchair general with hindsight isn't it ?

    On the big picture it's pretty easy without hindsight. You don't go invading countries if you have to sex up the intelligence to find some justification to do so, and certainly not if you don't have the faintest outline of a plan for how to put the country back together again once you have invaded it.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Clegg looked shell shocked yesterday. I suspect that on top of the terrible Libdem performance in the elections, he was also by then aware that there was a serious attempt under way within the party to destabilise his position as Leader even further. Today, Clegg looked a bit more in control as the wagons have started to surround him in an attempt to bolster his position among the upper echelons of the Libdem party.
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Clegg on the news. Look's like he's pulled himself together somewhat.

    A large gin, half a dozen valium and a good nights sleep can do wonders...

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Good business, bad business?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27517577
This discussion has been closed.

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