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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg
Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it already holds without a change of leader.
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Lab 1.99
Con 2.02
That's quite a big move since before Thursday when Lab was about 1.89.
Anyway, what's not to like? A whodunnit, gossip, intrigue...
Richard Nabavi : Shadsy doesn't need any help from us:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/betting-markets-beat-pollsters-in-euro-elections/
Bookies simply reflect the weight of money in a particular market - it's punters who largely decide the odds therefore.
OGH: " Who is it? I’ve got my suspicions but I’m not going to reveal them."
Oh Mike, you are such a tease! It surely has to involve at least one or maybe several leading figures in the party. Otherwise the entire exercise is a complete waste of time and money.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/some-quick-questions-for-libdems4change-40335.html
No one is owning up but there's lots of shouting !
There's a savage irony that the impossible Tuition Fees promise that was accepted by Mr Clegg was put on him by those who are now beating him over the head with it.
Is anyone able to get hold of the detailed Lewisham ward results for the local elections? The official website doesn't have the data as far as I can see:
http://councilmeetings.lewisham.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=3&RPID=38134540
So sources close to Vince Cable seem most likely, particularly since he will be too old after the next election to lead.
Who Cares. It would be odd if they were not after coming 5th in the euro elections.
The numbers who went straight from Libdem to UKIP show that a large proportion of their votes were protest voters who did not believe in Libdem principles and are horrified now that they have been exposed to those principles by having the party in government. They will survive in wealthy elitist liberal zones like Cheltenham though.
But never mind the politics: remember the b in pb -- we can bet on all these contingencies.
In an intervention designed to weaken Mr Clegg ahead of next week’s Lib Dem party conference, Lord Oakeshott warned that the Deputy Prime Minister’s ratings “are very poor and have been for a long time”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10305919/Vince-Cable-distances-himself-from-Lord-Oakeshott-after-peer-calls-for-Nick-Clegg-to-be-sacked.html
I think the problem is we have a very good message on what we've achieved, but it's being drowned out by being in government. Four years on, we've achieved most of what we set out to do in the coalition. Now, we must get out of government so we can put our distinctive Liberal Democrat messsage across, both about what we've achieved in government and what we are going to achieve in the next parliament separately from the Tories.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/lord-oakeshott-speaking-vince-cable
Before we go too far in speculation, is there not a question of how big the samples were and therefore the MOE, also when the poll was commissioned and carried out could be relevant to the motive, cost and the identity of the commissioner.
Is it possible that this could have been commissioned, implemented and leaked since the results were announced on Sunday, which is the first time the complete disaster of Europollagedden was released to the LibDems and they had confirmation of their worst fears.
Did you send Mr Hancock a condolences email when he lost his seat on Portsmouth council this May?
We consider it vital that at the 2015 General Election the Party should be led by someone who will receive a fair hearing about our achievements and ambitions for the future. It is clear to us that this person is not you, as the loss of so many of our hard working Councillors highlights.
You have fulfilled a range of objectives in Government, but we now believe that progress will be best achieved under a new leader. We therefore ask that you stand down, allowing the membership to select your successor this summer.
And LibDemVoice have some questions for them:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/some-quick-questions-for-libdems4change-40335.html
http://www.markpack.org.uk/50191/the-obvious-question-about-icm-polls/
But fear not! Lembit may ride to the rescue:
http://www.charlotteahenry.com/politics/lembit-would-stand-for-leader-to-save-the-libertarian-movement/
And Anthony Wells tweeted: Also, the name of the client must be made public by ICM
http://www.elmbridge.gov.uk/council/elections/borough14.htm
Worked out why - it was a Tory win because there were no other candidates. Still they ought to have put it on the page.
There are two stages to any leadership election - dumping the old leader and choosing a new one. It's more sensible to think about both parts before launching an election but you only have to think about the first at this stage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27492949
That the election of 2010 produced an outcome where it was impossible to get the numbers to work for a coalition with Labour is what has caused the problem. I think had the numbers worked better the 2010 negotiations would have been longer and Clegg would have been under serious pressure to deal with Labour. I think that would have whacked the Lib Dems too but nothing like dealing with the Tories, for a party that has spent most of its existence as an anti-Tory vehicle to have to enter such a pact with the devil was always going to cut the heart out of its electoral base in my view. Nick Clegg is just the schmuck left holding the time bomb when the music stops.
It's Oakeshitt in the library with Vince's knicker elastic ....
Clegg looks and sounds a beaten man. I really think it is time for him to move on for his own sake and for the sake of his party, no matter how problematic the alternatives. There is a serious risk about the future of the Coalition but I don't see an early election (the Lib Dems in particular have too much to lose and the tories need to give a recovering economy all the time they can) so I suspect things will limp on until May even though a year is a long time in politics.
This Lib Dem car crash has been unfolding for four years, yet they seem to have perfected the art of denial.
So much so some seem to think it will come good next year.
I've voted LD one way or another at most GE's since 1987 and will probably do so next time. The party has been excoriated for being a party of protest that has had the temerity to join Government. And overall, notwithstanding an overeagerness to accept the Tory agenda over the first couple of years, the party has provided some modest braking to a right wing agenda for which Con did not get a mandate. Unfortunately, you cannot crap on your core vote per tuition fees and expect to get away with it. That strategic error is why Clegg really should be looking to exit before the next GE, and realistically that means now.
Incidentally is there a Labour marginal south of the river Farage could stand in or is Laura Sandys seat the only candidate (assuming it is south of the river)?
The scale of this additional recovery is in some respects worrying. It suggests that a very significant part of the deficit reduction achieved in the last few years has been driven not by growth or spending cuts but by aggressively challenging tax avoidance. It is, in fact, a further demonstration of just how hard it is going to be for any future government to eliminate the deficit.
If the Lib Dems have found being in this government tough, god knows how they would cope with the next one.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b898f3ec-e279-11e3-a829-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz32tb5YHON
"The argument that the populist vote is still too weak and incoherent to merit a response does not really work. Anti-establishment parties have topped the polls in France and Britain – the EU’s second- and third-largest economies. The fringe parties have also made noteworthy gains in Spain, Italy and even Germany.
And while the populists detest each other and advance bizarre or contradictory ideas, they do share a common theme: the strong belief the EU has become too powerful, at the expense of the nation state.
To argue that the weekend’s vote was actually about immigration or the economy – and not about Europe – is to miss the point. Two of the basic functions of the nation state have traditionally been to control borders and national finances. Both functions have been largely ceded to the EU – particularly if, like France, you are a member of the Schengen border-free zone and the European single currency.
The challenge for EU leaders now is to see if they can restore some national democratic control over these key areas without actually dismantling the union itself. That may not be do-able. But they are going to have to try."
Next, Janan Ganesh argues that David Cameron should not pander to Kippers:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0cf1bdc-e4a7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32tb5YHON
"There are two reasons why the Conservatives are even remotely competitive despite their noxious reputation, their spending cuts and their oddball MPs. One is the UK economy, the other is Mr Cameron. He is not the mesmerising politician talked up by some around him in opposition but he is a grade or two above anything else around at the moment. It helps he looks the part but the underlying characteristics that constitute his appeal are sanity, moderation and strength. A dash for Ukip votes would sully all this. Mr Cameron would look unctuous, desperate and, well, un-prime ministerial. An implausible populist anyway, he can only campaign on a platform of cold credibility.
These weeks are a test of Mr Cameron’s internal rudder. A flighty politician would buy the hype about the advent of “four-party politics” and a revolution from below to which elites must genuflect or die. A serious politician would keep an eye on hard political realities. The combined Labour-Conservative vote share went up from 2009. Ukip has prospered by consolidating protest votes that used to go to a plurality of parties – but protest politics tends to splinter, and it will again. And European elections are not UK parliamentary elections; in a year, the Lib Dems are likely to still have about 30 MPs, and Ukip few or none."
Both have good points.
Quite what some of these weak kneed yellow perilists thought would happen in electoral terms between general elections is a source of merriment to me. After all the LibDems have over the decades feasted on the corpses of mid term governments and gorged their council numbers by the thousands. Now the arse kicking boot is on the foot.
The price of Coalition government was known to all rational analysts, which of course doesn't include those dewy eyed LibDems who thought they could have their broccoli quiche and eat it.
Nevertheless the main game is the 2015 General Election and not the froth of essentially meaningless European elections. All is still to play for .... except of course that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
That is his policy and, if he succeeds, he will then win a referendum keeping the UK in the EU. There are reasons why UKIP are so vociferous about Cameron. They fear him and they are right to do so.
I have never made a secret of the fact I have seen the Coalition as the nearest thing to a traditional One-Nation (Labour take note it is our phrase not yours) Tory government, economically right wing and socially centrist.
If Lord Rent-A-Gob Oakeshott is behind this coup attempt, I do hope it explodes in his face. The man has been as correct as Ed Balls and Danny Blanchflower for the past 4 years.
I expect the political landscape after the GE could be more like that of 1979 and if so, bang goes the 7% Tory lead to win theory.
Ukip 23
Con 19
SF 1
DUP1
UUP 1
That's 45 out of 73. It should at least give Cameron an argument.
I also notice Hollande is now suddenly talking about the need for change. So France plus UK and Germany is a decisive block. Problem is what do the all mean by change ?
"All seven of our declared aims can be secured with, at most, a one-line amendment to the treaties, along the lines of the one inserted at the time of the bailouts. Most of them, indeed, don’t even need that: they can be agreed in the form of a ministerial decision. As Ken Clarke has gleefully noted, there will be no need for a new Intergovernmental Conference, a new treaty or new parliamentary ratifications: ultimate proof that nothing of significance will change."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100264175/david-cameron-wants-to-stay-in-the-eu-on-something-like-the-current-terms-but-hes-our-only-chance-of-a-referendum/
@journodave: 'uproar' RT @petermacmahon: Uproar as Annie Lennox posts Union flag picture online | Herald Scotland http://t.co/4Mw8eaDpZr via @hsnewsbreak
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
The key issue around our EU membership is freedom of movement, a fundamental pillar of the EU project which the Tories committed us to when they negotiated and signed the Maastricht Treaty. Everything else is detail. For UKIP's bolt to be shot Cameron has to deliver something substantial on that. In two years.
As someone who has been covering the negotiations to create an EU patent since 1998 I wish him luck!!
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/27/is-clegg-toast-and-who-would-replace-him/
Other than that, all good.
How about Thatcher did change things and Blair made alot of noises but ultimately caved to the left. He left the welfare state unreformed and allowed Brown to ruin us.
Well intentioned mistake! FFS.
And 'otherwise all good'! Err...have you not looked at the record of New Labour 1997 - 2010?
Can't see Clegg being replaced. It won't help. But if he is, any chance for my 33/1 shot, Alistair Carmichael?
No, I didn't think so.
Thursday's results also point to Sheffield Hallam being solid.
Hmm, I don’t think that twitter exchange has shed any light on Hemming’s guilt or innocence.
The funder's name will surely have to come out under BPC rules today or tomorrow so there's no point in playing games over it. I wonder if they realise that they were going to be outed once they leaked the results?
However, most will safely relax in the fact the the centre-right and the socialists will have a majority of MEPs and will fall in line behind the EU bureaucracy.
Also half of their minds will be fixed on who will be the new President of the European Commission (who allocates the portfolios) to succeed Barroso and who will succeed Rompuy (President of the European Council) later this year.
I've texted a few political friends (from all the parties) in Sheffield Hallam asking if they know anyone who was polled by this poll, so far, we've found no one...
If Mr Hollande, or the other French presidential contenders, want to blunt Ms le Pen's political appeal, they will have to address her call for France to leave the EU.
There was something on the TV about the EU Parliament result triggering an election in Greece. Is that happening?
http://www.everythingeppingforest.co.uk/vote2014.htm
David Wooding @DavidWooding 23s
These elections have been a godsend for newspaper illustrators and cartoonists!
pic.twitter.com/b7pTZczb3t