Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious m

245

Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    Blair's a greedy airhead who squandered a great economic inheritance, led us into a pointless war in Iraq and whose cowardice inflicted Brown on us, first as Chancellor, then Prime Minister.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ladbrokes - Next UK GE - Most Votes

    Con 5/6
    Lab EVS
    UKIP 20/1
    LD 100/1
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Interesting article looking at changes in 1,008 BBC selected 'key wards'.

    "What seems to have happened is that between 2010 and 2012 UKIP took votes mainly from the Conservatives, but between 2012 and 2014 they have had more success in attracting Labour voters. The net effect is that the UKIP rise from 2010 to 2014 has been at similar expense to Labour and the Conservatives."

    http://electionsetc.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/unraveling-2014-local-election-changes.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    R5 live phone in on Clegg now. Lembit putting in boot.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Socrates said:


    Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)

    The mismanagement of devolution has brought the union to the brink of dissolution. Peace in Northern Ireland, he gets credit for, but shared with John Major. The fall in crime has been a global phenomenon, likely linked to reduced lead in cars, and has continued since he left office. As for public debt, either you are being knowingly deceiving in picking those numbers or you don't understand how deficits and economic cycles work.
    "Likely linked to reduced lead in cars"

    Really??
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    R5 live phone in on Clegg now. Lembit putting in boot.

    Lembits a drunk nutcase..I saw him at the count in Sutton on Thursday night where he had to be taken home as he was so off his face...
    The bloke has no credibility
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Blair's record in Northern Ireland also included undermining the moderates in the SDLP and UUP; going behind the backs of the other parties to make promises not to prosecute "On the Runs", and trying to get the other parties to agree that the IRA be allowed to police Catholic districts (it took the Irish government to point out what a bad idea that was).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, presumably the EU is the King of Bithynia?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Good morning, everyone.

    Blair's a greedy airhead who squandered a great economic inheritance, led us into a pointless war in Iraq and whose cowardice inflicted Brown on us, first as Chancellor, then Prime Minister.

    A comment worthy of a knighthood - but for a small donation (£1m) I'll up it to a peerage. ; )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, presumably the EU is the King of Bithynia?

    No, Pompey
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Since Blair became PM, the Tories have still to gain a majority.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.

    No. Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment - just see the papers and betting markets.
    - "Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment"

    Err...

    Matched bets at Betfair (£):

    IndyRef winner: 437,054
    Next UK GE seats: 281,779
    Next PM: 27,607
    Next Tory leader: 17,900
    Newark by-election: 9,440
    Next Liberal Democrat leader: 7,239

    Scintillating stuff the Lib Dem catfight. Stifles yawn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    John Hemming ‏@johnhemmingmp 14m

    @MSmithsonPB I wouldn't put any money on it if I were you, however, as I have had no involvement in the poll reported in the Guardian.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Sir Morris does have a nice ring to it, Mr. StClare.

    Mr. Eagles, that makes absolutely no sense.

    Dr. Spyn, since women gained the vote Britain's power and territory has shrunk dramatically.
  • Sean_F said:

    Blair's record in Northern Ireland also included undermining the moderates in the SDLP and UUP; going behind the backs of the other parties to make promises not to prosecute "On the Runs", and trying to get the other parties to agree that the IRA be allowed to police Catholic districts (it took the Irish government to point out what a bad idea that was).

    Didn't Blair also allow sinn fein mp's to claim expenses despite not taking their seats?
    Happy to be corrected if I got that wrong.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Bloody hell, the Sun are so impressed with Clegg, they are comparing him to the great military commander and politician, Julius Caesar

    David Wooding ‏@DavidWooding 23s

    These elections have been a godsend for newspaper illustrators and cartoonists!

    pic.twitter.com/b7pTZczb3t

    Not sure that's a fair analogy, Brutus and Cassius managed to get their man. Not sure the anti-Clegg faction will.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, I agree.

    On the other hand, it's worth recalling the Lib Dems axed Ming and Kennedy. Maybe they'll go for three in a row.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I suggest PBers check out this excellent piece by Rob Ford and the chap who tweets as election_data

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10857198/Ukip-have-torn-up-the-map.html
  • John Hemming ‏@johnhemmingmp 14m

    @MSmithsonPB I wouldn't put any money on it if I were you, however, as I have had no involvement in the poll reported in the Guardian.

    Very much a politician's carefully worded answer. What is the extent of his non involvement?

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    timmo said:

    TGOHF said:

    R5 live phone in on Clegg now. Lembit putting in boot.

    Lembits a drunk nutcase..I saw him at the count in Sutton on Thursday night where he had to be taken home as he was so off his face...
    The bloke has no credibility
    He was on the BBC sunday talk programme. He looked very puffy, and not that well I thought.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    @BobaFett - Just to confirm, I made that Amnesty donation yesterday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just need the Lewisham results now. Unfortunately the council webpage in question is empty of data:

    http://councilmeetings.lewisham.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=3&RPID=38134540
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:


    Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)

    The mismanagement of devolution has brought the union to the brink of dissolution. Peace in Northern Ireland, he gets credit for, but shared with John Major. The fall in crime has been a global phenomenon, likely linked to reduced lead in cars, and has continued since he left office. As for public debt, either you are being knowingly deceiving in picking those numbers or you don't understand how deficits and economic cycles work.
    "Likely linked to reduced lead in cars"

    Really??
    Yes, Mr Socrates is right, though perhaps not the cars per se but the petrol in them. Logic is that lead is a neurotoxin especially for young folk and has a significant effect on criminality in young males. I seem to recall a feature on it in New Scientist some time ago on this so it should be on their website if you want to know more. [BTW I had a Vanilla hiccup and almost - I think - pressed the spam/troll button in error for the quote one - my apologies if so.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lewisham council is the only council in the country which hasn't bothered to put its full election results on the internet.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Sir Morris does have a nice ring to it, Mr. StClare.

    Mr. Eagles, that makes absolutely no sense.

    Dr. Spyn, since women gained the vote Britain's power and territory has shrunk dramatically.

    You could, with equal logic, blame the Royal Navy's introduction of Dreadnought-class battleships ...

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Interesting article looking at changes in 1,008 BBC selected 'key wards'.

    "What seems to have happened is that between 2010 and 2012 UKIP took votes mainly from the Conservatives, but between 2012 and 2014 they have had more success in attracting Labour voters. The net effect is that the UKIP rise from 2010 to 2014 has been at similar expense to Labour and the Conservatives."

    http://electionsetc.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/unraveling-2014-local-election-changes.html

    I posted many months ago that this was likely to happen - anyone with better skills at working the pb.com back issues would see I called it "UKIP 2.0".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Carnyx said:

    Sir Morris does have a nice ring to it, Mr. StClare.

    Mr. Eagles, that makes absolutely no sense.

    Dr. Spyn, since women gained the vote Britain's power and territory has shrunk dramatically.

    You could, with equal logic, blame the Royal Navy's introduction of Dreadnought-class battleships ...

    The country has gone to the dogs since the Labour party was formed.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    ...UKIP...the only party advocating a cheap energy policy, the only party opposing HS2, do not have a contribution to make?

    That's this week.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    I was more thinking had he won how much worse a predicament the Lib Dems might now find themselves in. A party having to resign and being jailed for being a crim would have been lethal.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.

    10/3 available at Bet365, possibly even better at Betfair.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Quincel said:

    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.

    10/3 available at Bet365, possibly even better at Betfair.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish
    Thanks
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    ToryJim said:

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    I was more thinking had he won how much worse a predicament the Lib Dems might now find themselves in. A party having to resign and being jailed for being a crim would have been lethal.
    Yeah but if he hadn't made the beast with two backs with a woman who was not his wife, his wife wouldn't have gone to the media about those speeding points.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    "Counting was suspended at 12:40 BST on Tuesday after almost 16 hours at the King's Hall in Belfast." How long will it take to finish this nonsense today? One constituency, three seats. This has to be the most ridiculous system for holding an election. STV - WTF?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.

    No. Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment - just see the papers and betting markets.
    - "Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment"

    Err...

    Matched bets at Betfair (£):

    IndyRef winner: 437,054
    Next UK GE seats: 281,779
    Next PM: 27,607
    Next Tory leader: 17,900
    Newark by-election: 9,440
    Next Liberal Democrat leader: 7,239

    Scintillating stuff the Lib Dem catfight. Stifles yawn.
    Now you know how the rest of us feel when every thread is hijacked by you droning on about SINDY.

  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    ToryJim said:

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    I was more thinking had he won how much worse a predicament the Lib Dems might now find themselves in. A party having to resign and being jailed for being a crim would have been lethal.
    Yeah but if he hadn't made the beast with two backs with a woman who was not his wife, his wife wouldn't have gone to the media about those speeding points.
    Looking at his wife and considering what we now know of her personality, you can't really blame him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    An unfortunate mix of metaphors surely (but the first is novel to me and a nice one for the collection).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyAnushka: .@ICMResearch going to publish leaked poll this morning... The other places they say LDs lose - Redcar/Cambridge/Wells more expected
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937



    The country has gone to the dogs since the Labour party was formed.

    The rise of Steps and Tony Blair both began in 1997. I think a collective madness gripped the nation....

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Sean_F said:

    I suspect that the European elite will reflect long and hard on these results and conclude that the solution is ............ More Europe.

    LOL!

    On a not unrelated note, can anyone explain to me why we couldn't (logically) not keep the other three freedoms (capital, goods & services) but get an opt-out from people?

    It doesn't seem fundamental to a common *market* to me. It might help fill a few skilled jobs here and there (which is what it was originally intended to) but it's not critical. It certainly doesn't seem to have been intended as a conduit for mass immigration.

    We are already outside Schengen. Liechtenstein already imposes a permanent quota for all EEA citizens. Switzerland is in the process of doing that. A starting point could be to tighten up on permanent jobs, but keep it flexible for temporary contracts of 24 months or less. Perhaps even give a right for member states to review it (with a view to re-imposing reasonable restrictions) after 12 months if immigration levels from particular member states is too high.

    It would probably involve amending TFEU. But so what? It's not impossible. Let's have a debate about the details.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    First class Site, Shadsy. Complements this one excellently.

    Can't see Clegg being replaced. It won't help. But if he is, any chance for my 33/1 shot, Alistair Carmichael?

    No, I didn't think so.

    If Clegg goes, Carmichael might well be the only Lib Dem MP left.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    I was more thinking had he won how much worse a predicament the Lib Dems might now find themselves in. A party having to resign and being jailed for being a crim would have been lethal.
    Yeah but if he hadn't made the beast with two backs with a woman who was not his wife, his wife wouldn't have gone to the media about those speeding points.
    Oh of course the whole incident is bizarre.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyAnushka: .@ICMResearch going to publish leaked poll this morning... The other places they say LDs lose - Redcar/Cambridge/Wells more expected

    Wells would be no surprise at all.

    This is going to focus the minds of a lot of Lib Dem MPs. Dangerous times for Clegg.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014



    The country has gone to the dogs since the Labour party was formed.

    The rise of Steps and Tony Blair both began in 1997. I think a collective madness gripped the nation....

    Only one was a TRAGEDY for the country.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    I wonder if Chris Huhne has any involvement in these polls. He writes for the Grauniad regularly, has the dosh and is not exactly close to Clegg.

    I did speculate about that.

    Poor Huhne, if he had been able to keep the snake inside the pet store he'd probably be in pole position to become Lib Dem Leader and Deputy Prime Minister shortly.
    I was more thinking had he won how much worse a predicament the Lib Dems might now find themselves in. A party having to resign and being jailed for being a crim would have been lethal.
    Yeah but if he hadn't made the beast with two backs with a woman who was not his wife, his wife wouldn't have gone to the media about those speeding points.
    Looking at his wife and considering what we now know of her personality, you can't really blame him.
    She seems to be behaving exactly as most women I know would in such circumstances.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    "Without London, Labour could well have been 2nd in the local elections and third in the European elections."

    http://labourlist.org/2014/05/labour-needs-to-make-profound-changes-to-win-in-2015/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Hmm Isn't it the Lib Dems that say SEATS matter, not votes ?

    Well I've noted that they are the joint 6th party in UK politics in terms of European seat results, level with Plaid Cymru.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyAnushka: .@ICMResearch going to publish leaked poll this morning... The other places they say LDs lose - Redcar/Cambridge/Wells more expected

    Wells would be no surprise at all.

    This is going to focus the minds of a lot of Lib Dem MPs. Dangerous times for Clegg.
    But is there anything they can do. Taking this poll at face value none of the mentioned candidates would salvage the position sufficiently. They may conclude that they're dead whatever and just soak up the punishment under Clegg.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Morning.

    Clegg look's broken and destroyed on the front of the Rant. Can only be a matter of time, surely?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Carnyx, indeed, my point was meant to be sarcastic :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    There is a slight paradox about -

    The Lib Dems held Hallam fairly comfortably in these locals, Labour ~ 13% behind iirc
    Labour is going to take it according to this ICM poll.

    Now I know Labour's vote is famously lazy, but will it honestly differentially turn out more for them in the GE to make up that gap ?

    And if they do, surely a Labour majority is nailed on, or the Lib Dems are getting about 7 seats, or both !

    I think Labour will get a higher differential turnout at GE2015, but not to this degree.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    SeanF - I also see that Blair has basically already said that on Radio 4:

    'He also told the programme the rationale for Europe today was "probably stronger than it has ever been" in terms of enabling medium-sized countries to play a role on the international stage.'

    To be fair, he also said that the EU should "get out of doing the things it doesn't need to do", instead allowing countries to deal with more issues at a national level. And went on to say: "European leaders have got to grip and focus on the big issues... if the European leaders focus on the big issues and show they are gripping those big issues and get out of some of the things that irritate people about Brussels, then I think there is a real chance you will get the right types of reforms in Europe," he added.

    But, to be honest, that sounds more like a few tokenistic gestures on some of the more silly EU directives and regulations, rather than anything substantial. He completely doesn't get the issue of immigration and says he wouldn't change a thing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    There is a slight paradox about -

    The Lib Dems held Hallam fairly comfortably in these locals, Labour ~ 13% behind iirc
    Labour is going to take it according to this ICM poll.

    Now I know Labour's vote is famously lazy, but will it honestly differentially turn out more for them in the GE to make up that gap ?

    And if they do, surely a Labour majority is nailed on, or the Lib Dems are getting about 7 seats, or both !

    I think Labour will get a higher differential turnout at GE2015, but not to this degree.

    People can vote for different parties at local/national elections.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    @ Financier
    "Without London, Labour could well have been 2nd in the local elections and third in the European elections."

    ...and without the South-East constituency Labour would have topped the polls in the Euros
    and been even further ahead in the Locals.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.

    You're being very harsh on a pretty straight sort of guy.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Carnyx, indeed, my point was meant to be sarcastic :)

    Oh quite! But interesting to have to think that far back for a precedent for the last few days.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.

    You think I would? I wouldn't trust the change he gave me if he sold me a coffee, or with a bucket of water if my trousers were on fire.

    If he was captaining the last life raft to leave the Titantic, I'd take my chances with the ship.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:


    Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)

    The mismanagement of devolution has brought the union to the brink of dissolution. Peace in Northern Ireland, he gets credit for, but shared with John Major. The fall in crime has been a global phenomenon, likely linked to reduced lead in cars, and has continued since he left office. As for public debt, either you are being knowingly deceiving in picking those numbers or you don't understand how deficits and economic cycles work.
    "Likely linked to reduced lead in cars"

    Really??
    Yep: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sean_F said:

    I suspect that the European elite will reflect long and hard on these results and conclude that the solution is ............ More Europe.

    Mssr. Hollande's approach seems to be to call for less Europe on the surface, but actually wants more economic governance:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27579235
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.

    Mr Dancer, Blair was fundamentally a showman. It mattered not to him what was in the show if anything as long as he was bouncing about the stage. Hence his ideological vacancy and predilection for destructive policy choices. He did occasionally stumble upon decent policy answers by accident. He is the Paul Daniels of politics, a reasonably likeable conjurer well past his prime.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidCoburnUKip: Mr Salmond talking about articulating a clear position against UKIP Scotland - Pro EU and Separation - I call this the Clegg route
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Financier - indeed although London is part of the electorate. Anyone can do that - without the SE Labour would have won and the Tories would have got 22%!!!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Southam

    You are a gentleman and a scholar.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I see @OllyT beat me to it.

    Interestingly Labour has very few GE targets in the SE......
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    The combined Labour-Conservative vote share went up from 2009. Ukip has prospered by consolidating protest votes that used to go to a plurality of parties – but protest politics tends to splinter, and it will again.

    Janan Ganesh makes a very good point there - it is one which we should certainly bear in mind when analysing the impact of the results.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    When Nigel Farage visited Thurrock on Friday, grown men were weeping tears of joy according to Sky News, saying "Thank you, Thank you"..

    Today they're getting Ed Miliband...

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/27/politics-of-polly-visit-to-thurrock-dont-make-sense-miliband-attempting-to-shore-up-labour-morale/
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.

    Leave me alone and stop taking the piss.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.

    No. Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment - just see the papers and betting markets.
    - "Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment"

    Err...

    Matched bets at Betfair (£):

    IndyRef winner: 437,054
    Next UK GE seats: 281,779
    Next PM: 27,607
    Next Tory leader: 17,900
    Newark by-election: 9,440
    Next Liberal Democrat leader: 7,239

    Scintillating stuff the Lib Dem catfight. Stifles yawn.

    As the Sindy ref has been dragging on for 4 years that isn't that impressive.

    Figures for the last 3 days determine "at the moment"


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Blair quoted by the BEEB

    UKIP has "no solutions to the problems of the 21st Century", former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said.....

    Mr Blair said it must also "confront and expose" parties like UKIP.

    "You look underneath that UKIP facade and you see something pretty nasty and unpleasant," he told BBC Radio 4......

    "You have got to take on people who, within countries, who are arguing for a combination of anti-EU and anti-immigration policies which are not the answer," he said.

    "I am afraid, with those forces, you have got to be prepared to stand up, lead and take them on."

    He urged Labour and other parties not to ape UKIP's stance on Europe and immigration and said Ed Miliband must "stay firm" on his pledge not to hold a EU referendum unless more powers go to Brussels.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27585260
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    isam said:

    When Nigel Farage visited Thurrock on Friday, grown men were weeping tears of joy according to Sky News, saying "Thank you, Thank you"..

    Today they're getting Ed Miliband...

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/27/politics-of-polly-visit-to-thurrock-dont-make-sense-miliband-attempting-to-shore-up-labour-morale/

    That suggests that UKIP is less a political movement than a form of religion. That will massively shorten it's electoral shelf life.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    edited May 2014
    The EU really has no case to ignore the UK.

    Well over half the MEPs we elected are not happy with the status quo - to put it mildly - and either want meaningful renegotiation or withdrawal.

    Con + UKIP seats (43 MEPs) = 58.9% of all MEPs
    Con + UKIP votes = 51.4% of all votes

    If we lump in all Eurosceptic votes, however unsavoury, we get even bigger numbers:

    Con + UKIP + ED + BNP + AIFE + NO2EU + WDARN + Britain First + Liberty GB + CPA votes = 55.67%

    If you added in Northern Ireland, the numbers would become even more compelling. I've excluded Green - as they're anti-euro, rather than actively Eurosceptic - but there's a case to include some of their voters too.

    Of course, I don't expect the EU to do very much, but (if they don't) they can't complain if the UK eventually exits the organisation due to its own inaction.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Financier, I'd be greatly surprised if Miliband went for a referendum.

    However, UKIP's vote was significant enough to perhaps cause the matter to be reconsidered.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    BobaFett said:

    @Financier - indeed although London is part of the electorate. Anyone can do that - without the SE Labour would have won and the Tories would have got 22%!!!

    I was just quoting one of your Party's blogs. Perhaps you need to read it and then respond to them and not me. If you do not like the message then do not blame the messenger.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:


    Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)

    The mismanagement of devolution has brought the union to the brink of dissolution. Peace in Northern Ireland, he gets credit for, but shared with John Major. The fall in crime has been a global phenomenon, likely linked to reduced lead in cars, and has continued since he left office. As for public debt, either you are being knowingly deceiving in picking those numbers or you don't understand how deficits and economic cycles work.
    "Likely linked to reduced lead in cars"

    Really??
    The banning of leaded paints and fuels has been followed by a massive drop in criminal behaviour. The link has been formed because lead has been known to alter brain chemistry and absorption of airborne lead particles has also previously been linked to criminality. The logical conclusion is easy to form, though it should be added that there are no conclusive studies yet about this phenomenon. Studies are on going in countries where leaded fuels and paints are still commonly used.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, it's worked well for global warming.

    Temperatures have plateaued, but it's just Warmor testing the faithful ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Financier, I'd be greatly surprised if Miliband went for a referendum.

    However, UKIP's vote was significant enough to perhaps cause the matter to be reconsidered.

    Should imagine Ed will focus on the real issue- rich banker immigrants.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    antifrank said:

    The combined Labour-Conservative vote share went up from 2009. Ukip has prospered by consolidating protest votes that used to go to a plurality of parties – but protest politics tends to splinter, and it will again.

    Janan Ganesh makes a very good point there - it is one which we should certainly bear in mind when analysing the impact of the results.
    That's not entirely untrue. However, underlying that attitude is a tone of.. 'just carry on as we are, ignore them, they will go away eventually...'

    I suggest that attitude is the one most guaranteed to sustain, and even increase, UKIP's vote share in future elections.

    These results are absolutely seismic. Only a totally delusional politician would seek to explain them away.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Finacier

    Where did I blame you? I merely responded to the point. Don't be so touchy!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Blair is right on this matter.

    A referendum is a sideshow that will create massive uncertainly.

    Hold firm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.

    Leave me alone and stop taking the piss.
    I know you're gutted that your 40/1 tip David Moyes won't be your manager, but it looks like Pochettino really is happening

    Tottenham Hotspur close to luring Southampton manager Mauricio Pochettino to White Hart Lane

    Argentine expected to be named as new manager at Spurs within 48 hours as Southampton brace themselves for summer exodus

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10856706/Tottenham-Hotspur-close-to-luring-Southampton-manager-Mauricio-Pochettino-to-White-Hart-Lane.html

    and here

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/26/mauricio-pochettino-advanced-talks-tottenham-hotspur-manager
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Fett, divorcing someone creates massive uncertainty. That doesn't mean you should stay in an unhappy marriage.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.

    Mr Dancer, Blair was fundamentally a showman. It mattered not to him what was in the show if anything as long as he was bouncing about the stage. Hence his ideological vacancy and predilection for destructive policy choices. He did occasionally stumble upon decent policy answers by accident. He is the Paul Daniels of politics, a reasonably likeable conjurer well past his prime.

    I listened to some of Blair's radio interview. He said that the EU is important so that nations like the UK can exercise power . For what purposes would we want to exercise power? He totally ignored (in the bit I heard) people's concerns about their perceptions of uncontrolled immigration. Until that is sorted the EU will never gain support.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Article on why UKIP didn't do well in London:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27585765

    Comments are rather obvious.

    Reminds me a bit of the idiot Mark Easton's article from a year or so ago claiming that white flight was due to rising prosperity and a good thing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pochettino is one of the finest managers in Britain at the moment, Spurs would be crazy not to pick him and should consider themselves lucky he's on the market at the right time for them. Sadly Levy being Levy they'll probably fire him in two years when they should support him and keep him for a decade.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Can anyone find any markets on Spurs to qualify for the champs league next season?

    I really want to back them, Pochettino's appointment is a real coup.

    Leave me alone and stop taking the piss.
    I know you're gutted that your 40/1 tip David Moyes won't be your manager, but it looks like Pochettino really is happening

    Tottenham Hotspur close to luring Southampton manager Mauricio Pochettino to White Hart Lane

    Argentine expected to be named as new manager at Spurs within 48 hours as Southampton brace themselves for summer exodus

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10856706/Tottenham-Hotspur-close-to-luring-Southampton-manager-Mauricio-Pochettino-to-White-Hart-Lane.html

    and here

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/26/mauricio-pochettino-advanced-talks-tottenham-hotspur-manager
    So who'll be on the merry go round to Southampton now ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Quincel said:

    Pochettino is one of the finest managers in Britain at the moment, Spurs would be crazy not to pick him and should consider themselves lucky he's on the market at the right time for them. Sadly Levy being Levy they'll probably fire him in two years when they should support him and keep him for a decade.

    Agree on both points.

    This is from December, and is still apt.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/dec/19/liverpool-brendan-rodgers-tottenham-cardiff
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: YouGov forced choice: Con govt led by Cam 4pt lead over Lab govt led by EdM (ptly bc UKIP voters break 2-1). Peter Kellner, forthcoming.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Casino_Royale - No, the results are very significant, but they are not 'absolutely seismic'. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well in the circumstances, Labour recovered from its unbelievably bad 2009 result - a derisory 15.7%, remember, which was pretty seismic - the BNP vote collapsed and probably went to UKIP, the LibDem vote collapsed and part of it went to UKIP, and UKIP also probably picked up a little bit of vote share from very minor parties like the English Democrats.

    To put this all in perspective, in 1989 the Greens got well over half what UKIP got last week. How seismic was that?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BobaFett said:

    Blair is right on this matter.

    A referendum is a sideshow that will create massive uncertainly.

    Hold firm.

    I don't understand this argument. Surely a referendum is the way to end the uncertainty? It's not going to go away if there isn't a referendum.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Financier said:

    Blair quoted by the BEEB

    UKIP has "no solutions to the problems of the 21st Century", former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said.....

    Mr Blair said it must also "confront and expose" parties like UKIP.

    "You look underneath that UKIP facade and you see something pretty nasty and unpleasant," he told BBC Radio 4......

    "You have got to take on people who, within countries, who are arguing for a combination of anti-EU and anti-immigration policies which are not the answer," he said.

    "I am afraid, with those forces, you have got to be prepared to stand up, lead and take them on."

    He urged Labour and other parties not to ape UKIP's stance on Europe and immigration and said Ed Miliband must "stay firm" on his pledge not to hold a EU referendum unless more powers go to Brussels.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27585260

    I voted for Blair twice and also for Brown.. what did I get? A war I totally disagreed with that was based on lies, and mass immigration on an unprecedented scale that I wasnt told about that was based on estimates so wildly innaccurate you have to suspect they were lies.

    What can be more "nasty and unpleasant" than massacring thousands of innocent Iraqi's and hundreds of British serviceman, on the flimsiest of evidence, while deceiving millions of your own voters by flooding their towns with immigrants that are undercutting their wages then calling them bigots for noticing?

    I thought about voting LibDem in 2010, but didnt, and thank God because the last thing I wanted was to prop up David Cameron

    UKIP are anti uncontrolled immigration & oppose intervention in wars that are none of our business... Two things that Labour let me down on. There must be plenty more people like me who have voted for other parties in the past and been let down. If the worst UKIP do is have some councillor say something dodgy that I have heard down the pub a million times, then I can suffer that
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    BobaFett said:

    Blair is right on this matter.

    A referendum is a sideshow that will create massive uncertainly.

    Hold firm.

    I don't understand this argument. Surely a referendum is the way to end the uncertainty? It's not going to go away if there isn't a referendum.
    For once we agree entirely. It's not like Britain's future in the EU has become less uncertain over this parliament, for example.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    BobaFett said:

    Blair is right on this matter.

    A referendum is a sideshow that will create massive uncertainly.

    Hold firm.

    I don't understand this argument. Surely a referendum is the way to end the uncertainty? It's not going to go away if there isn't a referendum.

    Cameron should say that General Elections are a cause of uncertainty and just declare himself Prime Minister for Life.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Quincel said:

    Pochettino is one of the finest managers in Britain at the moment, Spurs would be crazy not to pick him and should consider themselves lucky he's on the market at the right time for them. Sadly Levy being Levy they'll probably fire him in two years when they should support him and keep him for a decade.

    He might be crazy to go to spurs tho. Could be better off waiting a while until Jose gets bored or Arsenal finally lose patience. Though I suppose his players will sold sold from under him at Southampton..
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    perdix said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Royale, I wouldn't trust a word that comes out of Blair's mouth. On the EU, he managed to give away half the rebate in return for nothing. It made Alan Johnson's renegotiation of GP contracts look like a triumph.

    Mr Dancer, Blair was fundamentally a showman. It mattered not to him what was in the show if anything as long as he was bouncing about the stage. Hence his ideological vacancy and predilection for destructive policy choices. He did occasionally stumble upon decent policy answers by accident. He is the Paul Daniels of politics, a reasonably likeable conjurer well past his prime.

    I listened to some of Blair's radio interview. He said that the EU is important so that nations like the UK can exercise power . For what purposes would we want to exercise power? He totally ignored (in the bit I heard) people's concerns about their perceptions of uncontrolled immigration. Until that is sorted the EU will never gain support.

    The trouble is he forgets we are one of the permanent members of the UNSC. We have well formed links with countries containing a sizeable chunk of the earths population and are developing links with the most populous state on earth, the idea we can't exercise power/influence independently of political monoliths like the EU is batty.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    I don't understand this argument. Surely a referendum is the way to end the uncertainty? It's not going to go away if there isn't a referendum.

    Labour's argument is completely bogus.

    They claim to be in favour of a referendum, but that specifying the date "causes uncertainty"

    Nonsense on stilts
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2014
    "Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg"

    Leading lights in this are clearly the Social Liberal groups acting with a £ backer or two. The main name that is primarily being proposed is Cable's. Also notable is the unusually quiet sh*t of the year, Oakeshott.
This discussion has been closed.