politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious m
Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it already holds without a change of leader.
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Betfair most seats:
Lab 1.99
Con 2.02
That's quite a big move since before Thursday when Lab was about 1.89.0 -
Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.0
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don't talk wet man, The LibDems currently haev several government ministers. I think that makes them somewhat significant in politics. And if the coalition is dissolved because of this stuff..audreyanne said:Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.
Anyway, what's not to like? A whodunnit, gossip, intrigue...
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Richard Nabavi : Shadsy doesn't need any help from us:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/betting-markets-beat-pollsters-in-euro-elections/
Bookies simply reflect the weight of money in a particular market - it's punters who largely decide the odds therefore.0 -
OGH: " Who is it? I’ve got my suspicions but I’m not going to reveal them."
Oh Mike, you are such a tease! It surely has to involve at least one or maybe several leading figures in the party. Otherwise the entire exercise is a complete waste of time and money.
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According to *this* over at LDV, it is somebody with access to copies of email lists owned by the Party but is hiding in the swamp. Quite serious if not properly authorised, both for the emailer and the party that didn't enforce its rules.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/some-quick-questions-for-libdems4change-40335.html
No one is owning up but there's lots of shouting !
There's a savage irony that the impossible Tuition Fees promise that was accepted by Mr Clegg was put on him by those who are now beating him over the head with it.0 -
Amongst the broadsheets, only The Guardian appears to be majoring on Clegg, so perhaps the story is dying a death already.0
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Those Conservative odds equate to 1.97 decimal net of comm'n, whereas a number of bookies are offering 2.1, which amounts to a 13.4% better return.MikeL said:Betfair most seats:
Lab 1.99
Con 2.02
That's quite a big move since before Thursday when Lab was about 1.89.0 -
O/T:
Is anyone able to get hold of the detailed Lewisham ward results for the local elections? The official website doesn't have the data as far as I can see:
http://councilmeetings.lewisham.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=3&RPID=381345400 -
Cui bono? The plausible caretaker candidates for the rest of the Parliament are Vince Cable and Danny Alexander. The latter is a continuity candidate and the credibility of such candidates is not enhanced by a prior defenestration.
So sources close to Vince Cable seem most likely, particularly since he will be too old after the next election to lead.0 -
"Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg"
Who Cares. It would be odd if they were not after coming 5th in the euro elections.
The numbers who went straight from Libdem to UKIP show that a large proportion of their votes were protest voters who did not believe in Libdem principles and are horrified now that they have been exposed to those principles by having the party in government. They will survive in wealthy elitist liberal zones like Cheltenham though.0 -
Is it absolutely certain that it's LibDems behind this? How many supporters does the party have with access to the kind of money these polls would require. I can well imagine scenarios in which Labour, Tory and even UKIP supporters might want to make some mischief.0
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Will Clegg survive? Who will succeed him? Will the coalition be dissolved early? Will the Cabinet (which includes several LibDem ministers) be reshuffled?audreyanne said:Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.
But never mind the politics: remember the b in pb -- we can bet on all these contingencies.0 -
Half the LD parliamentary party are currently facing unemployment in 2015.antifrank said:Cui bono? The plausible caretaker candidates for the rest of the Parliament are Vince Cable and Danny Alexander. The latter is a continuity candidate and the credibility of such candidates is not enhanced by a prior defenestration.
So sources close to Vince Cable seem most likely, particularly since he will be too old after the next election to lead.
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Who's "got previous" and is on the record for wishing the end of both Clegg's leadership and the coalition?
In an intervention designed to weaken Mr Clegg ahead of next week’s Lib Dem party conference, Lord Oakeshott warned that the Deputy Prime Minister’s ratings “are very poor and have been for a long time”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10305919/Vince-Cable-distances-himself-from-Lord-Oakeshott-after-peer-calls-for-Nick-Clegg-to-be-sacked.html
I think the problem is we have a very good message on what we've achieved, but it's being drowned out by being in government. Four years on, we've achieved most of what we set out to do in the coalition. Now, we must get out of government so we can put our distinctive Liberal Democrat messsage across, both about what we've achieved in government and what we are going to achieve in the next parliament separately from the Tories.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/lord-oakeshott-speaking-vince-cable0 -
I somewhat like the Lib Dems, quite as much as I dislike the Kippers' seemy side. To me UK politics seems largely to be an exercise in black/white opposing polarities. I wouldn't normally bother saying this, but maybe the LDs could use a few friends just now.0
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Good morning from Serbia.
Before we go too far in speculation, is there not a question of how big the samples were and therefore the MOE, also when the poll was commissioned and carried out could be relevant to the motive, cost and the identity of the commissioner.
Is it possible that this could have been commissioned, implemented and leaked since the results were announced on Sunday, which is the first time the complete disaster of Europollagedden was released to the LibDems and they had confirmation of their worst fears.
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Just going on LBC in a few minutes on whether Clegg can survive.0
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The question for such Lib Dem MPs is whether their prospects would be improved by replacing Nick Clegg. Till yesterday, I would have said no, but a man with all the stuffing knocked out of him is no use to man nor beast.anotherDave said:
Half the LD parliamentary party are currently facing unemployment in 2015.antifrank said:Cui bono? The plausible caretaker candidates for the rest of the Parliament are Vince Cable and Danny Alexander. The latter is a continuity candidate and the credibility of such candidates is not enhanced by a prior defenestration.
So sources close to Vince Cable seem most likely, particularly since he will be too old after the next election to lead.0 -
Are you going to be giving him the thumbs up or the thumbs down, for those of us unable to listen in?MikeSmithson said:Just going on LBC in a few minutes on whether Clegg can survive.
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http://app.musicradio.com/lbclondon/on-air/player/antifrank said:
Are you going to be giving him the thumbs up or the thumbs down, for those of us unable to listen in?MikeSmithson said:Just going on LBC in a few minutes on whether Clegg can survive.
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How do you feel about the seamy side of the LDs? The seamy side of Labour? The seamy side of the Conservatives?Toms said:I somewhat like the Lib Dems, quite as much as I dislike the Kippers' seemy side. To me UK politics seems largely to be an exercise in black/white opposing polarities. I wouldn't normally bother saying this, but maybe the LDs could use a few friends just now.
Did you send Mr Hancock a condolences email when he lost his seat on Portsmouth council this May?
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The argument http://libdems4change.org use is very similar to that used by Oakeshott:
We consider it vital that at the 2015 General Election the Party should be led by someone who will receive a fair hearing about our achievements and ambitions for the future. It is clear to us that this person is not you, as the loss of so many of our hard working Councillors highlights.
You have fulfilled a range of objectives in Government, but we now believe that progress will be best achieved under a new leader. We therefore ask that you stand down, allowing the membership to select your successor this summer.
And LibDemVoice have some questions for them:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/some-quick-questions-for-libdems4change-40335.html0 -
The human condition implies imperfection. In particular, implicit racism makes my flesh creep. The LDs, with their imperfections, have a contribution to make I think.anotherDave said:
How do you feel about the seamy side of the LDs? The seamy side of Labour? The seamy side of the Conservatives?Toms said:I somewhat like the Lib Dems, quite as much as I dislike the Kippers' seemy side. To me UK politics seems largely to be an exercise in black/white opposing polarities. I wouldn't normally bother saying this, but maybe the LDs could use a few friends just now.
Did you send Mr Hancock a condolences email when he lost his seat on Portsmouth council this May?
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I said what I've written about in my last couple of posts. As long as Ashdown is supportive he'll survive.antifrank said:
Are you going to be giving him the thumbs up or the thumbs down, for those of us unable to listen in?MikeSmithson said:Just going on LBC in a few minutes on whether Clegg can survive.
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I am beginning to wonder whether the LDs are going to split.0
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The site's name is political betting. Leadership elections and the timing of them are a big deal for the betting markets.audreyanne said:Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.
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In addition to Oakeshott, Mark Pack wonders if John Hemming MP may be involved:
http://www.markpack.org.uk/50191/the-obvious-question-about-icm-polls/
But fear not! Lembit may ride to the rescue:
http://www.charlotteahenry.com/politics/lembit-would-stand-for-leader-to-save-the-libertarian-movement/
And Anthony Wells tweeted: Also, the name of the client must be made public by ICM0 -
Walton South result missing from Elmbridge website:
http://www.elmbridge.gov.uk/council/elections/borough14.htm
Worked out why - it was a Tory win because there were no other candidates. Still they ought to have put it on the page.0 -
Cui bono is only one consideration. Don't underestimate panic ("we must do something!") and anger ("blame someone!") as motivating factors.antifrank said:Cui bono? The plausible caretaker candidates for the rest of the Parliament are Vince Cable and Danny Alexander. The latter is a continuity candidate and the credibility of such candidates is not enhanced by a prior defenestration.
So sources close to Vince Cable seem most likely, particularly since he will be too old after the next election to lead.
There are two stages to any leadership election - dumping the old leader and choosing a new one. It's more sensible to think about both parts before launching an election but you only have to think about the first at this stage.0 -
It's amazing that things like this are still hidden away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-274929490 -
The trouble Nick Clegg finds himself in is actually not largely of his own making. Of course things like tuition fees haven't helped, but it's the broader picture that is behind the Lib Dem situation. For 20 years the party made hay as an anti-Tory party one that was a bit less ideological and a bit more cuddly than Labour. From 1997-2005 they carved out a big fat niche of seats by effectively taking votes from fanatical anti-Tories who used to vote Labour. This was accelerated by the Iraq conflict where they stood against it and circumstances have subsequently made them look prescient. This alliance of fanatical anti-Tories with a wedge of anti-Blairites was always a touch precarious. The anti-Blairites would probably largely have returned to Labour over time, but the killer for the Lib Dems was the arithmetic last time.
That the election of 2010 produced an outcome where it was impossible to get the numbers to work for a coalition with Labour is what has caused the problem. I think had the numbers worked better the 2010 negotiations would have been longer and Clegg would have been under serious pressure to deal with Labour. I think that would have whacked the Lib Dems too but nothing like dealing with the Tories, for a party that has spent most of its existence as an anti-Tory vehicle to have to enter such a pact with the devil was always going to cut the heart out of its electoral base in my view. Nick Clegg is just the schmuck left holding the time bomb when the music stops.
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If Clegg stood down and did not contest Sheffield Hallam in 2015 who would it be a shoe-in for the LD candidate who succeeded him?0
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Isn't the LibDem guy in the grey suit stroking the white cat Lord Fondlehard? I suspect revenge is a motive.0
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Who Dunnit ?!?!
It's Oakeshitt in the library with Vince's knicker elastic ....0 -
Sky News - Lloyd's to float 25% of TSB next month.0
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The Lib Dems lost 310 councillors on Thursday. For a smallish party that is a lot, comfortably more than UKIP have in total. The shockwaves of that result, even more than the MEPs, will be felt across the activist base. It would be remarkable if the leadership was not being challenged.
Clegg looks and sounds a beaten man. I really think it is time for him to move on for his own sake and for the sake of his party, no matter how problematic the alternatives. There is a serious risk about the future of the Coalition but I don't see an early election (the Lib Dems in particular have too much to lose and the tories need to give a recovering economy all the time they can) so I suspect things will limp on until May even though a year is a long time in politics.0 -
The most surprising thing about this Lib Dem aftermath is that they seem genuinely surprised that they did badly.
This Lib Dem car crash has been unfolding for four years, yet they seem to have perfected the art of denial.
So much so some seem to think it will come good next year.0 -
Odd. On the one hand, the Euro elections do suggest that the scale of loss of support is such that no seats should be considered 'safe'. On the other, IIRC, the locals suggested the vote was holding up in some such areas. For instance, in Hallam I'm sure the scores posted by Andy JS were good for LD and utterly dire for Con.
I've voted LD one way or another at most GE's since 1987 and will probably do so next time. The party has been excoriated for being a party of protest that has had the temerity to join Government. And overall, notwithstanding an overeagerness to accept the Tory agenda over the first couple of years, the party has provided some modest braking to a right wing agenda for which Con did not get a mandate. Unfortunately, you cannot crap on your core vote per tuition fees and expect to get away with it. That strategic error is why Clegg really should be looking to exit before the next GE, and realistically that means now.0 -
No. Clegg's survival is the big political betting story at the moment - just see the papers and betting markets.audreyanne said:Could we have a thread about something that actually matters in British politics? The LibDems don't. Ok so that's slight hyperbole but they are a lot less significant than OGH, a LibDem, would have us believe. There are much more significant thread opportunities surrounding both UKIP and Labour.
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Good morning all. Will the latest Ashcroft poll this afternoon pour petrol on the LibDem bonfire? It feels good to be a Scottish Tory today.
Incidentally is there a Labour marginal south of the river Farage could stand in or is Laura Sandys seat the only candidate (assuming it is south of the river)?0 -
O/T George Osborne (aka Robin Hood) has been at it again, scourging the better paid in his desperate search for taxes to give to the poor: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10857138/Taxman-collects-extra-1billion-by-cracking-down-on-barristers-and-accountants.html
The scale of this additional recovery is in some respects worrying. It suggests that a very significant part of the deficit reduction achieved in the last few years has been driven not by growth or spending cuts but by aggressively challenging tax avoidance. It is, in fact, a further demonstration of just how hard it is going to be for any future government to eliminate the deficit.
If the Lib Dems have found being in this government tough, god knows how they would cope with the next one.0 -
No, it's from some weeks back. Oakeshott seems the obvious candidate, but I wouldn't rule out a wealthy Tory posing as a LibDem. A temporary change to Cable seems objectively in their interest.philiph said:Good morning from Serbia.
Before we go too far in speculation, is there not a question of how big the samples were and therefore the MOE, also when the poll was commissioned and carried out could be relevant to the motive, cost and the identity of the commissioner.
Is it possible that this could have been commissioned, implemented and leaked since the results were announced on Sunday, which is the first time the complete disaster of Europollagedden was released to the LibDems and they had confirmation of their worst fears.
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For those that like thinking about the EU, two good but contradictory articles in the FT. First, Gideon Rachman argues that EU leaders cannot simply ignore the populists:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b898f3ec-e279-11e3-a829-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz32tb5YHON
"The argument that the populist vote is still too weak and incoherent to merit a response does not really work. Anti-establishment parties have topped the polls in France and Britain – the EU’s second- and third-largest economies. The fringe parties have also made noteworthy gains in Spain, Italy and even Germany.
And while the populists detest each other and advance bizarre or contradictory ideas, they do share a common theme: the strong belief the EU has become too powerful, at the expense of the nation state.
To argue that the weekend’s vote was actually about immigration or the economy – and not about Europe – is to miss the point. Two of the basic functions of the nation state have traditionally been to control borders and national finances. Both functions have been largely ceded to the EU – particularly if, like France, you are a member of the Schengen border-free zone and the European single currency.
The challenge for EU leaders now is to see if they can restore some national democratic control over these key areas without actually dismantling the union itself. That may not be do-able. But they are going to have to try."
Next, Janan Ganesh argues that David Cameron should not pander to Kippers:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0cf1bdc-e4a7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32tb5YHON
"There are two reasons why the Conservatives are even remotely competitive despite their noxious reputation, their spending cuts and their oddball MPs. One is the UK economy, the other is Mr Cameron. He is not the mesmerising politician talked up by some around him in opposition but he is a grade or two above anything else around at the moment. It helps he looks the part but the underlying characteristics that constitute his appeal are sanity, moderation and strength. A dash for Ukip votes would sully all this. Mr Cameron would look unctuous, desperate and, well, un-prime ministerial. An implausible populist anyway, he can only campaign on a platform of cold credibility.
These weeks are a test of Mr Cameron’s internal rudder. A flighty politician would buy the hype about the advent of “four-party politics” and a revolution from below to which elites must genuflect or die. A serious politician would keep an eye on hard political realities. The combined Labour-Conservative vote share went up from 2009. Ukip has prospered by consolidating protest votes that used to go to a plurality of parties – but protest politics tends to splinter, and it will again. And European elections are not UK parliamentary elections; in a year, the Lib Dems are likely to still have about 30 MPs, and Ukip few or none."
Both have good points.0 -
The LibDems need to hold their nerve and see off the damp squib of the "Lembitlite Rebellion" in short order.DavidL said:The Lib Dems lost 310 councillors on Thursday. For a smallish party that is a lot, comfortably more than UKIP have in total. The shockwaves of that result, even more than the MEPs, will be felt across the activist base. It would be remarkable if the leadership was not being challenged.
Clegg looks and sounds a beaten man. I really think it is time for him to move on for his own sake and for the sake of his party, no matter how problematic the alternatives. There is a serious risk about the future of the Coalition but I don't see an early election (the Lib Dems in particular have too much to lose and the tories need to give a recovering economy all the time they can) so I suspect things will limp on until May even though a year is a long time in politics.
Quite what some of these weak kneed yellow perilists thought would happen in electoral terms between general elections is a source of merriment to me. After all the LibDems have over the decades feasted on the corpses of mid term governments and gorged their council numbers by the thousands. Now the arse kicking boot is on the foot.
The price of Coalition government was known to all rational analysts, which of course doesn't include those dewy eyed LibDems who thought they could have their broccoli quiche and eat it.
Nevertheless the main game is the 2015 General Election and not the froth of essentially meaningless European elections. All is still to play for .... except of course that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
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'Fess up. You posted that so that some of us would be lured into reading about the fecal transplant...SouthamObserver said:It's amazing that things like this are still hidden away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27492949
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Not sure I see the contradiction. A serious, competent politician like Cameron recognises the need for an adjustment of the balance between the EU and the Member States with power and control being returned to the latter. Such a policy is not "pandering" to UKIP but addressing at least one part of it's appeal in a grown up and mature way by stating the obvious: the EU cannot survive in its current form.antifrank said:For those that like thinking about the EU, two good but contradictory articles in the FT. First, Gideon Rachman argues that EU leaders cannot simply ignore the populists:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b898f3ec-e279-11e3-a829-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz32tb5YHON
"The argument that the populist vote is still too weak and incoherent to merit a response does not really work. Anti-establishment parties have topped the polls in France and Britain – the EU’s second- and third-largest economies. The fringe parties have also made noteworthy gains in Spain, Italy and even Germany.
(snip)
The challenge for EU leaders now is to see if they can restore some national democratic control over these key areas without actually dismantling the union itself. That may not be do-able. But they are going to have to try."
Next, Janan Ganesh argues that David Cameron should not pander to Kippers:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0cf1bdc-e4a7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32tb5YHON
"There are two reasons why the Conservatives are even remotely competitive despite their noxious reputation, their spending cuts and their oddball MPs. One is the UK economy, the other is Mr Cameron. He is not the mesmerising politician talked up by some around him in opposition but he is a grade or two above anything else around at the moment. It helps he looks the part but the underlying characteristics that constitute his appeal are sanity, moderation and strength. A dash for Ukip votes would sully all this. Mr Cameron would look unctuous, desperate and, well, un-prime ministerial. An implausible populist anyway, he can only campaign on a platform of cold credibility.
These weeks are a test of Mr Cameron’s internal rudder. A flighty politician would buy the hype about the advent of “four-party politics” and a revolution from below to which elites must genuflect or die. A serious politician would keep an eye on hard political realities. The combined Labour-Conservative vote share went up from 2009. Ukip has prospered by consolidating protest votes that used to go to a plurality of parties – (snip)."
Both have good points.
That is his policy and, if he succeeds, he will then win a referendum keeping the UK in the EU. There are reasons why UKIP are so vociferous about Cameron. They fear him and they are right to do so.
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I feel sorry for Nick Clegg and if he is forced out, he will be very welcome in the Tory Party. We remember our friends. The problem for many LibDems is that they have coasted along for three decades by being able to face in 2 directions, against Labour in the north and against the Tories in the south and convey appropriate and very different messages.
I have never made a secret of the fact I have seen the Coalition as the nearest thing to a traditional One-Nation (Labour take note it is our phrase not yours) Tory government, economically right wing and socially centrist.
If Lord Rent-A-Gob Oakeshott is behind this coup attempt, I do hope it explodes in his face. The man has been as correct as Ed Balls and Danny Blanchflower for the past 4 years.
I expect the political landscape after the GE could be more like that of 1979 and if so, bang goes the 7% Tory lead to win theory.0 -
Oh good. While UKIP, the only party advocating leaving the EU, the only party advocating a cheap energy policy, the only party opposing HS2, do not have a contribution to make?Toms said:
The human condition implies imperfection. In particular, implicit racism makes my flesh creep. The LDs, with their imperfections, have a contribution to make I think.anotherDave said:
How do you feel about the seamy side of the LDs? The seamy side of Labour? The seamy side of the Conservatives?Toms said:I somewhat like the Lib Dems, quite as much as I dislike the Kippers' seemy side. To me UK politics seems largely to be an exercise in black/white opposing polarities. I wouldn't normally bother saying this, but maybe the LDs could use a few friends just now.
Did you send Mr Hancock a condolences email when he lost his seat on Portsmouth council this May?
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Looking at the results the UK is now represented by largely eurosceptic\hostile MEPs
Ukip 23
Con 19
SF 1
DUP1
UUP 1
That's 45 out of 73. It should at least give Cameron an argument.
I also notice Hollande is now suddenly talking about the need for change. So France plus UK and Germany is a decisive block. Problem is what do the all mean by change ?0 -
Antifrank - not sure the two have to be seen as contradictory. Sensible reform and refocusing of the EU combined with a realism about the nature of the UKIP vote seems plausible. Cameron has been advocating reform for ages, Merkel has been tiptoeing towards reform, Hollande seems to be having a Damascene conversion on the need for a smaller better focused EU. It could be that the elections to the European Parliament could prove an enormous stroke of luck for the PM making his renegotiation stance easier to pull off. He certainly can go into the discussions armed with a bigger arsenal than before able to point to euro sceptics and make the case that the problem will worsen unless tackled.0
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Tony Blair will be one Radio 4's Today programme shortly.0
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Snap and I agree about your point about the election strengthening Cameron's hand in seeking serious reform. Those that were talking airily about no need for another treaty for many years etc look fairly ridiculous now.ToryJim said:Antifrank - not sure the two have to be seen as contradictory. Sensible reform and refocusing of the EU combined with a realism about the nature of the UKIP vote seems plausible. Cameron has been advocating reform for ages, Merkel has been tiptoeing towards reform, Hollande seems to be having a Damascene conversion on the need for a smaller better focused EU. It could be that the elections to the European Parliament could prove an enormous stroke of luck for the PM making his renegotiation stance easier to pull off. He certainly can go into the discussions armed with a bigger arsenal than before able to point to euro sceptics and make the case that the problem will worsen unless tackled.
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That's just crap ...Innocent_Abroad said:
'Fess up. You posted that so that some of us would be lured into reading about the fecal transplant...SouthamObserver said:It's amazing that things like this are still hidden away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27492949
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This is an area which is normally only accessible by river and walking - one of the few last natural and unspoilt places but under threat from illicit logging. It is not good for your health - malaria mosquitoes and all sorts of bugs as well as very dangerous members of the reptilian family.SouthamObserver said:It's amazing that things like this are still hidden away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-274929490 -
Mr Cameron's renegotiation stance is to not ask for anything of significance.ToryJim said:It could be that the elections to the European Parliament could prove an enormous stroke of luck for the PM making his renegotiation stance easier to pull off. He certainly can go into the discussions armed with a bigger arsenal than before able to point to euro sceptics and make the case that the problem will worsen unless tackled.
"All seven of our declared aims can be secured with, at most, a one-line amendment to the treaties, along the lines of the one inserted at the time of the bailouts. Most of them, indeed, don’t even need that: they can be agreed in the form of a ministerial decision. As Ken Clarke has gleefully noted, there will be no need for a new Intergovernmental Conference, a new treaty or new parliamentary ratifications: ultimate proof that nothing of significance will change."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100264175/david-cameron-wants-to-stay-in-the-eu-on-something-like-the-current-terms-but-hes-our-only-chance-of-a-referendum/0 -
Oh doubtless they all mean something different but that's a better position than before where Hollande didn't even recognise a problem. I'm minded of a verse from Luke 15:7Alanbrooke said:Looking at the results the UK is now represented by largely eurosceptic\hostile MEPs
Ukip 23
Con 19
SF 1
DUP1
UUP 1
That's 45 out of 73. It should at least give Cameron an argument.
I also notice Hollande is now suddenly talking about the need for change. So France plus UK and Germany is a decisive block. Problem is what do the all mean by change ?
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Nothing wrong with Tony, best post war PM.0
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I still think it's notable that UKIP got 1 vote in Scotland for every 2.8 SNP votes.0
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Con 19 because there are no Europhiles in the party responsible for taking us into the Common Market and almost every major EU-centralisation step since?Alanbrooke said:Looking at the results the UK is now represented by largely eurosceptic\hostile MEPs
Ukip 23
Con 19
SF 1
DUP1
UUP 1
That's 45 out of 73. It should at least give Cameron an argument.
I also notice Hollande is now suddenly talking about the need for change. So France plus UK and Germany is a decisive block. Problem is what do the all mean by change ?0 -
Well let's see shall we, i suspect there are undeclared aims that are sitting there. You never reveal your hand unless you have to. Plus the tenor of the game has changed now, the fact that other leaders are conceding the need for change will tend to open up the territory on which change will be negotiated. It's way too early to tell but in future we may see Farage as akin to Pyrrhus of Epirus.anotherDave said:
Mr Cameron's renegotiation stance is to not ask for anything of significance.ToryJim said:It could be that the elections to the European Parliament could prove an enormous stroke of luck for the PM making his renegotiation stance easier to pull off. He certainly can go into the discussions armed with a bigger arsenal than before able to point to euro sceptics and make the case that the problem will worsen unless tackled.
"All seven of our declared aims can be secured with, at most, a one-line amendment to the treaties, along the lines of the one inserted at the time of the bailouts. Most of them, indeed, don’t even need that: they can be agreed in the form of a ministerial decision. As Ken Clarke has gleefully noted, there will be no need for a new Intergovernmental Conference, a new treaty or new parliamentary ratifications: ultimate proof that nothing of significance will change."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100264175/david-cameron-wants-to-stay-in-the-eu-on-something-like-the-current-terms-but-hes-our-only-chance-of-a-referendum/0 -
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@PeteWishart: Why are there so few artists, creatives, musicians, dramatists, into No?
@journodave: 'uproar' RT @petermacmahon: Uproar as Annie Lennox posts Union flag picture online | Herald Scotland http://t.co/4Mw8eaDpZr via @hsnewsbreak0 -
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
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Yours or mine?SouthamObserver said:
That's just crap ...Innocent_Abroad said:
'Fess up. You posted that so that some of us would be lured into reading about the fecal transplant...SouthamObserver said:It's amazing that things like this are still hidden away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27492949
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Blair praising Clegg's "leadership" and "courage". That must be the kiss of death...0
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Did he chuck in "indefatigability" just for the lolsLife_ina_market_town said:Blair praising Clegg's "leadership" and "courage". That must be the kiss of death...
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Heh heh. Yes, I agree with parts of that. Well, whether we like it or not UKIP is certainly making a contribution too. My perception however is that UKIP has picked some significant dingleberry from the far right.anotherDave said:
Oh good. While UKIP, the only party advocating leaving the EU, the only party advocating a cheap energy policy, the only party opposing HS2, do not have a contribution to make?Toms said:
The human condition implies imperfection. In particular, implicit racism makes my flesh creep. The LDs, with their imperfections, have a contribution to make I think.anotherDave said:
How do you feel about the seamy side of the LDs? The seamy side of Labour? The seamy side of the Conservatives?Toms said:I somewhat like the Lib Dems, quite as much as I dislike the Kippers' seemy side. To me UK politics seems largely to be an exercise in black/white opposing polarities. I wouldn't normally bother saying this, but maybe the LDs could use a few friends just now.
Did you send Mr Hancock a condolences email when he lost his seat on Portsmouth council this May?
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Cameron needs to begin a negotiation from scratch after a GE and secure an agreement in time to hold a referendum in 2017.
The key issue around our EU membership is freedom of movement, a fundamental pillar of the EU project which the Tories committed us to when they negotiated and signed the Maastricht Treaty. Everything else is detail. For UKIP's bolt to be shot Cameron has to deliver something substantial on that. In two years.
As someone who has been covering the negotiations to create an EU patent since 1998 I wish him luck!!0 -
And "substantial" means something that will actually impact migration levels on a meaningful scale. Banning benefits for three, six or even 24 months isn't going to change it by more than 5%, and the Tories know that very well.SouthamObserver said:Cameron needs to begin a negotiation from scratch after a GE and secure an agreement in time to hold a referendum in 2017.
The key issue around our EU membership is freedom of movement, a fundamental pillar of the EU project which the Tories committed us to when they negotiated and signed the Maastricht Treaty. Everything else is detail. For UKIP's bolt to be shot Cameron has to deliver something substantial on that. In two years.
As someone who has been covering the negotiations to create an EU patent since 1998 I wish him luck!!0 -
A 'mistake' that 500,000 and counting have died for.asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
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Easterrosss, Nice that you are happy, but would expect BAU to be resumed soon, your duffers will resume normal mediocrity and we will be back to where we were.Easterross said:Good morning all. Will the latest Ashcroft poll this afternoon pour petrol on the LibDem bonfire? It feels good to be a Scottish Tory today.
Incidentally is there a Labour marginal south of the river Farage could stand in or is Laura Sandys seat the only candidate (assuming it is south of the river)?0 -
A short note about the betting on next LD leader.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/27/is-clegg-toast-and-who-would-replace-him/0 -
The Iraq War, massive increases in migration, support for the Lebanon War, complicity with US rendition, giving away the rebate, structural deficits as far as the eye can see, feather touch financial regulation, huge expansion of warrantless spying by GCHQ, breaking a referendum promise on the Lisbon Treaty, attempting to join the Euro, and turning UK politics into a spin machine.asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
Other than that, all good.0 -
Blimey!asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
How about Thatcher did change things and Blair made alot of noises but ultimately caved to the left. He left the welfare state unreformed and allowed Brown to ruin us.
Well intentioned mistake! FFS.
And 'otherwise all good'! Err...have you not looked at the record of New Labour 1997 - 2010?0 -
I suspect that the European elite will reflect long and hard on these results and conclude that the solution is ............ More Europe.0
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First class Site, Shadsy. Complements this one excellently.
Can't see Clegg being replaced. It won't help. But if he is, any chance for my 33/1 shot, Alistair Carmichael?
No, I didn't think so.0 -
I've added to the header an exchange of Tweets with John Hemming MP over whether he was the funder of the ICM poll0
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I'm having trouble getting hold of the detailed Epping Forest local election results. Can anyone help? Thanks.0
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Naughty OGH. Hemming said that he could "confirm or deny" it. But he didn't say which, and I guess he won't, just yet...MikeSmithson said:I've added to the header an exchange of Tweets with John Hemming MP over whether he was the funder of the ICM poll
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You did ask whether he could confirm 'or' deny Mike..0
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One Lib Dem MP whose seat appears to be rock-solid, on Thursday's results.MikeSmithson said:I've added to the header an exchange of Tweets with John Hemming MP over whether he was the funder of the ICM poll
Thursday's results also point to Sheffield Hallam being solid.
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Can you confirm/deny commissioning the ICM poll? – “indeed I can.”
Hmm, I don’t think that twitter exchange has shed any light on Hemming’s guilt or innocence.
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Unlike these polls!Sean_F said:
Thursday's results also point to Sheffield Hallam being solid.
The funder's name will surely have to come out under BPC rules today or tomorrow so there's no point in playing games over it. I wonder if they realise that they were going to be outed once they leaked the results?0 -
He was good at winning elections, but it becomes ever clearer with hindsight what a poor PM he was.Socrates said:
The Iraq War, massive increases in migration, support for the Lebanon War, complicity with US rendition, giving away the rebate, structural deficits as far as the eye can see, feather touch financial regulation, huge expansion of warrantless spying by GCHQ, breaking a referendum promise on the Lisbon Treaty, attempting to join the Euro, and turning UK politics into a spin machine.asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
Other than that, all good.
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Whilst there will be much talk in Brussels, I fear that the anti-Euers will be offered just a few nigh-worthless crumbs. Merkel will be anxious to stem any further rise in the far-right whilst Hollande will have any eye on 2017.
However, most will safely relax in the fact the the centre-right and the socialists will have a majority of MEPs and will fall in line behind the EU bureaucracy.
Also half of their minds will be fixed on who will be the new President of the European Commission (who allocates the portfolios) to succeed Barroso and who will succeed Rompuy (President of the European Council) later this year.0 -
Add trying to give Gibraltar away to the listSocrates said:
The Iraq War, massive increases in migration, support for the Lebanon War, complicity with US rendition, giving away the rebate, structural deficits as far as the eye can see, feather touch financial regulation, huge expansion of warrantless spying by GCHQ, breaking a referendum promise on the Lisbon Treaty, attempting to join the Euro, and turning UK politics into a spin machine.asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
Other than that, all good.0 -
Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)Socrates said:
The Iraq War, massive increases in migration, support for the Lebanon War, complicity with US rendition, giving away the rebate, structural deficits as far as the eye can see, feather touch financial regulation, huge expansion of warrantless spying by GCHQ, breaking a referendum promise on the Lisbon Treaty, attempting to join the Euro, and turning UK politics into a spin machine.asjohnstone said:
Post WW2, Thatcher and Blair are the only two PMs to have seriously challenged how the British state works and remade it. Should have sacked Brown in 2004, I think even he'd concede.JackW said:
I don't get fixated on Iraq, he made a well intentioned mistake.
Otherwise, all good.
Other than that, all good.
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Does this have something to do with the ultimate answer to life, the universe, and everything being 42?AndyJS said:I still think it's notable that UKIP got 1 vote in Scotland for every 2.8 SNP votes.
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Looking at how the last two Liberal Democrat Leaders were forced out, it was by a revolt by the Shadow Cabinet?
I've texted a few political friends (from all the parties) in Sheffield Hallam asking if they know anyone who was polled by this poll, so far, we've found no one...0 -
After discovering that Clegg was not sleeping with the fishes yet,the 15-8 on Labour beating Hughes in Bermondsey gets more attractive by the day.Bermondsey is unfinished business and could be the best "Portillo Moment" of GE2015.Maybe it's going to take that for the L/Ds to realise Clegg's ordered them on a kamikaze mission.0
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Labour winning Sheffield Hallam has gone from 7/1 last night to 7/2 this morning (with Hills)0
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The mismanagement of devolution has brought the union to the brink of dissolution. Peace in Northern Ireland, he gets credit for, but shared with John Major. The fall in crime has been a global phenomenon, likely linked to reduced lead in cars, and has continued since he left office. As for public debt, either you are being knowingly deceiving in picking those numbers or you don't understand how deficits and economic cycles work.asjohnstone said:
Devolution in Scotland, peace in northern Ireland, the minimum wage, 32% fall in crime whilst he was in office, brought in civil partnerships for gays, won the olympics for London. Public debt fell under Blair from 49% of GDP to 44% when he left office. (after 4 years of Cameron it's gone from 67% to 90%)0 -
When interviewed after the result, Mr Farage said he thought the effect of the EU election would be more on domestic politics within the member states.Financier said:Whilst there will be much talk in Brussels, I fear that the anti-Euers will be offered just a few nigh-worthless crumbs. Merkel will be anxious to stem any further rise in the far-right whilst Hollande will have any eye on 2017.
However, most will safely relax in the fact the the centre-right and the socialists will have a majority of MEPs and will fall in line behind the EU bureaucracy.
Also half of their minds will be fixed on who will be the new President of the European Commission (who allocates the portfolios) to succeed Barroso and who will succeed Rompuy (President of the European Council) later this year.
If Mr Hollande, or the other French presidential contenders, want to blunt Ms le Pen's political appeal, they will have to address her call for France to leave the EU.
There was something on the TV about the EU Parliament result triggering an election in Greece. Is that happening?
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Oh, I forgot "winning the Olympics". If you need to add that to bolster your list of achievements you know you're scraping the barrel.0
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Found a newspaper page with the Epping Forest results:
http://www.everythingeppingforest.co.uk/vote2014.htm0 -
I'd never underplay the great work that John Major did in Northern Ireland.0
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Bloody hell, the Sun are so impressed with Clegg, they are comparing him to the great military commander and politician, Julius Caesar
David Wooding @DavidWooding 23s
These elections have been a godsend for newspaper illustrators and cartoonists!
pic.twitter.com/b7pTZczb3t0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
