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Comments
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UKIP victory in graphics
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-275761040 -
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
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I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.0 -
Didn't support for "out" reach its highest peak so far around Eurogeddon time? If so it's just dropping back until the euro crisis flares up again.corporeal said:
so +x (Ukip) -y (Eurogeddon fade) where y > x0 -
Not when the majority of law made in Brussels is decided by QMV.edmundintokyo said:
UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
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http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !0 -
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Clegg, for lack of a better word, is good. Clegg is right, Clegg works. Clegg clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Clegg, in all of his forms; Clegg for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Clegg, you mark my words, will not only save the Libdem Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the EU. Thank you very much.Patrick said:I'm tempted to open a new Vanilla account called ProudToBeALibDem and create a beardy yoghurt knitting diatribe. Anybody care to write this for me? Quotes/bullets/paras/soundbites all gratefully received!
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So you are saying we are just confused then? You may be on to something.No_Offence_Alan said:
Yes, the Scottish result was strange. The Tory vote was up marginally and even the LD vote was holding up slightly better than elsewhere in the Northern seats with LD incumbents.DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
I think the difference between the two sides of the border is this:
England first-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the Coalition is to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
But in Scotland-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP and the Coalition are to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
SNP say everything is getting better, and the SNP is the reason.
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It reminded me of Colin's mum? - clearly it was someone enjoying themselves..! ; )Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
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There have been some good moments of humour this past 24 hours. One is that ProudtobeLabour piece: bravo. Another was Nigel Farage's 'GOODBYEEEE'. I don't like UKIP but that was very good. The man has comic timing, I'll give him that.
Nevermind Nick Clegg. It's irrelevant, partly because the LibDems are irrelevant. They're goners.
The much more important question is around EdM. He clearly has to go if Labour are to win the General Election. They will NOT win with him in charge. As the electorate have said, he's weird. He will never be Prime Minister.0 -
Even as a UKIP member I am not sure that counts :-)surbiton said:
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !0 -
Conflating Ed Miliband and John Prescott was the most impressive... I can hard;y imagine two more different people!DavidL said:
Of course it is a joke. It mentions paying for things 3x. Labour politicians and supporters don't do that. A clear tell.Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
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Ah, thanks for the refinement. Yes, you'd indeed need 4% from some other parties. But it is perfectly possible that the Tory increase would have been even greater had it not been for UKIP. I also wonder about turnout, now you mention it. Could the Euro have encouraged Europhobes to turn out disproportionately?DavidL said:
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
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What do you think anti-EU SNP or Labour supporters would do ? They were not electing a Holyrood government.DavidL said:
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]0 -
Very good Sunil - but you forgot to save the whales.0
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I thought it was quite interesting that "Harry and Paul's History of the Twos" made so much of BBC comedians knee-jerk slagging off of the Daily Mail during their savaging of panel snows.0
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Haven't looked at the data, but is it something to do with don't knows?corporeal said:
Personally I'm on the fence over the EU, and will make my decision based on the results of the renegotiation (it's a transactional relationship, not an issue of principle). But I could see some "don't knows" not wanting to be associated with what they perceive UKIP to represent.0 -
Sean T if you are going to do these guardian-blog fake personas, try and make it harder to spot.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.0 -
UKIP will win by 2000 votes !Richard_Tyndall said:
Even as a UKIP member I am not sure that counts :-)surbiton said:
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !0 -
If the Northern Ireland estimates are correct, then Diane Dodds and Jim Nicholson will be re-elected easily. The result would show a swing of 2% from Nationalist to Unionist since 2009. Has the Scottish debate had a knock-on effect in Northern Ireland?0
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Well what do you think? ukip have to be in with a decent shout now? It's all about momentum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even as a UKIP member I am not sure that counts :-)surbiton said:
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !0 -
Only one of the symptoms of our political illness. Nowhere in the Lab/Lib/Con parties will a leading politician resign on a matter of principle or honour, even if they have made an obvious mess of everything they touch.Sunil_Prasannan said:Jason Beattie @JBeattieMirror ·1 hr
Spanish socialist leader quits after losing 9 of 23 MEPs. Clegg loses 10 of 11 Lib Dem MEPs....0 -
I thought it was Sunil.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Sean T if you are going to do these guardian-blog fake personas, try and make it harder to spot.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.0 -
Yeah, the LDs didn't win any MEPs in Wales!!Patrick said:Very good Sunil - but you forgot to save the whales.
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You hope...surbiton said:
UKIP will win by 2000 votes !Richard_Tyndall said:
Even as a UKIP member I am not sure that counts :-)surbiton said:
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !
0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
Not when the majority of law made in Brussels is decided by QMV.edmundintokyo said:
UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
You've lost me, the voters are represented the same amount via the minister they elect whether it's QMV, simple majority voting or unanimity.
Actually that's not quite true, unanimity effectively increases the representation of voters in small countries and correspondingly reduces the representation of voters in large countries like the UK.0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft ·15 mins
The Ashcroft National Poll for GE15 is released every Monday at 4pm except if it's a public holiday then it's 4pm on Tuesday0 -
A man who understands the LibDems perfectly:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100273275/its-not-a-parrot-joke-its-a-dead-party-the-long-overdue-death-of-the-lib-dem-construct/0 -
UKIP victory in verseMikeK said:UKIP victory in graphics
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27576104
They have given us into the hand of new unhappy lords,
Lords without anger or honour, who dare not carry their swords.
They fight by shuffling papers; they have bright dead alien eyes;
They look at our labour and laughter as a tired man looks at flies.
And the load of their loveless pity is worse than the ancient wrongs,
Their doors are shut in the evening; and they know no songs.
[snip]
It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our rest
God's scorn for all men governing. It may be beer is best.
But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet.
Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.
http://www.cse.dmu.ac.uk/~mward/gkc/books/secret-people.html0 -
No, I can assure it wasn't me, but I almost wish it wassurbiton said:
I thought it was Sunil.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Sean T if you are going to do these guardian-blog fake personas, try and make it harder to spot.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown. 0 -
Epic fail as a philosopher, No Offence. ;DNo_Offence_Alan said:
Yes, the Scottish result was strange. The Tory vote was up marginally and even the LD vote was holding up slightly better than elsewhere in the Northern seats with LD incumbents.DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
I think the difference between the two sides of the border is this:
England first-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the Coalition is to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
But in Scotland-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP and the Coalition are to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
SNP say everything is getting better, and the SNP is the reason.
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Honestly I went into it expecting to find don't knows being driven to stay in.Charles said:
Haven't looked at the data, but is it something to do with don't knows?corporeal said:
Personally I'm on the fence over the EU, and will make my decision based on the results of the renegotiation (it's a transactional relationship, not an issue of principle). But I could see some "don't knows" not wanting to be associated with what they perceive UKIP to represent.
Unsure's maybe down a touch on average but not much.
It may be a Out --> Unsure --> Stay movement
But the number of people saying stays has increased and the number saying leave has decreased in fairly close proportion to each other.0 -
Nothing better to do on a rainy bank holiday?MikeK said:0 -
The Survation Scotland poll included a 2011 Holyrood past vote. UKIP attractedCarnyx said:
Ah, thanks for the refinement. Yes, you'd indeed need 4% from some other parties. But it is perfectly possible that the Tory increase would have been even greater had it not been for UKIP. I also wonder about turnout, now you mention it. Could the Euro have encouraged Europhobes to turn out disproportionately?DavidL said:
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
23% 2011 Con
5% 2011 Lab
7% 2011 LD
8% 2011 SNP
(Table 17,p.20)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-full-tables-May.pdf
YouGov had similar numbers
22% 2011 Con
6% 2011 Lab
5% 2011 LD
8% 2011 SNP
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhj5fuzqb4/UniofCardiff_FoES_Scotland_140422_website_v1.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
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You saying support for "out" didn't peak during Eurogeddon and you'd expect it to have fallen since?MikeK said:
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Not sure why I have lost you it is very straightforward.edmundintokyo said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Not when the majority of law made in Brussels is decided by QMV.edmundintokyo said:
UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
You've lost me, the voters are represented the same amount via the minister they elect whether it's QMV, simple majority voting or unanimity.
Actually that's not quite true, unanimity effectively increases the representation of voters in small countries and correspondingly reduces the representation of voters in large countries like the UK.
QMV means that new laws can be imposed upon us by people we never had the opportunity to vote for as a country. If new laws require unanimity then the representative of the British government can prevent them being passed.
We do not have and do not want a European Demos. Laws affecting the United Kingdom should be made by people we have had the opportunity to vote for. That is democracy. The EU is not.
Oh and yes, before you ask, since I am in favour of Scots independence the same applies there as well.0 -
Scotland also has as many UKIP. MEPs as Wales and the North East of England. Not as different as the separatists would have us believe.SouthamObserver said:
Scotland has as many UKIP MEPs as London which, unlike Scotland, returned a Green MEP. It's hardly a different country, is it?DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com0 -
Out of 84 seats in the South East, the Tories won 75 in GE 2010. UKIP increased its vote share by 13.3%.
So are all Tory seats safe in the South East ? UKIP need not be the only beneficiary.0 -
Coalition's not easy, it's rather strange.
When I explain the coalition deal, how I still need your votes after all I've done.
You won't believe me, all you will see is a man you once liked, although he's now widely despised, my supporters now very few.
I had to debate with Farage, I had to change, couldn't stay at the polling nadir, staring down the barrel of the electorate's gun.
So I chose debating, duelling with Farage, trying something so new, but nothing impressed you at all, I never expected it to.
Don't cry for me British voters.
The truth is I never loved you.
All through my Coalition days, my sad existence, I broke my promise, and now I have no chance.
And as for polling, and as for the game, now I cannot win, it seems to the world I will shortly be fired.
Polling contusions, constant bad news is delivered to me, it's the end of my time, I know you and now want to flee.0 -
I grew up in Newark and lived there for 40 years. Whilst I now live about 15 miles away over the border in Lincolnshire I still consider Newark my home town.ThomasNashe said:
Well what do you think? ukip have to be in with a decent shout now? It's all about momentum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even as a UKIP member I am not sure that counts :-)surbiton said:
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/Richard_Tyndall said:
I very much doubt we will get a Newark going UKIP thread.GIN1138 said:
We may or may not get a Newark going UKIP thread, but whats absoluely certain is that we won't get a Newark going Labour thread even though Tony won it in 97.surbiton said:When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?
The reason we won't get a Newark going Labour thread is precisely because Tony won it in 1997 and what followed turned Newark off Labour for a very very long time.
Newark has already voted UKIP. Now the bar charts will tell the sizable Labour vote to do a supreme sacrifice !
I honestly do not think that, even after the Euros, UKIP have much chance in the town. I think they have picked the wrong candidate and I believe that the large Polish derived population who came and settled in the town after WW2 and who are completely integrated into life there will not be receptive to UKIP's message.
In addition the constituency lost its Northern, more Labour supporting areas where UKIP might pick up votes in the last boundary changes and in return got portions of Ken Clark's old constituency. Again I don't feel that these changes will do anything to improve UKIP's chances.
Of course I would love to see UKIP win. I would suggest there is a chance if they can get the 'lend me your vote' message across which might reduce the impact of any 'vote Tory get Labour' line from the Blues.
But I still think the smart money has to be with the Tories in Newark.0 -
Are you sure? When I read that my first thought was that Sunil is playing again. And now you say it wasn't you. Come on, if it wasn't you then say, "It wasn't me, honest", and remember honest means honest.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, I can assure it wasn't me, but I almost wish it wassurbiton said:
I thought it was Sunil.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Sean T if you are going to do these guardian-blog fake personas, try and make it harder to spot.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.0 -
I think you must have linked to the wrong piece. That's just a bloke talking bollocks.Patrick said:A man who understands the LibDems perfectly:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100273275/its-not-a-parrot-joke-its-a-dead-party-the-long-overdue-death-of-the-lib-dem-construct/0 -
Wouldn't Cable have lost his seat this time. Can't wait for the election leaflets; ONLY UKIP CAN WIN HERE!! - followed by a dodgy graph.surbiton said:
I don't want Cable to take over !SandyRentool said:Mr Clegg remains an electoral asset for Labour. Hopefully he will stay until the day after the GE.
Oh the irony.0 -
Avast, Mr Llama! Ego alone would have meant (if it had been me), I would have posted it under my own name!HurstLlama said:
Are you sure? When I read that my first thought was that Sunil is playing again. And now you say it wasn't you. Come on, if it wasn't you then say, "It wasn't me, honest", and remember honest means honest.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, I can assure it wasn't me, but I almost wish it wassurbiton said:
I thought it was Sunil.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Sean T if you are going to do these guardian-blog fake personas, try and make it harder to spot.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.0 -
Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about the future of the planet, not Kyoto. Not sure if that was deliberate or not.Charles said:
Conflating Ed Miliband and John Prescott was the most impressive... I can hard;y imagine two more different people!DavidL said:
Of course it is a joke. It mentions paying for things 3x. Labour politicians and supporters don't do that. A clear tell.Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
0 -
On topic, Clegg will soldier on - there is little evidence that ditching him will suddenly cleanse the Lib Dems of taint - he has to go down with the ship in 2015 - and allow his successor to rebuild anew. The Lib Dems occupy a distinctive position - and post 2015 goodness knows in what directions either Labour or Tory will head. They're not dead yet.0
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Hmmm, alright, but don't do it again.
Anyway, following your cough last evening about spending a whole day at the London Wetland centre, did you see my invitation to come and see us at the Arundel Wetlands. Get yourself to the station and we will take care of you from there. Autumn is a great time because then we have the Swans coming in from Russia.0 -
surbiton said:
What do you think anti-EU SNP or Labour supporters would do ? They were not electing a Holyrood government.DavidL said:
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
What it tells me is that tory supporters in Scotland are totally focussed on the Indy referendum and will turn out en masse to vote no (as per their strapline in the Euro election).
If you want to spot a difference as per Salmond between Scotland and England that is it. Scottish tories are not interested in messing about with the likes of UKIP when their country is at stake. September will be the biggest political event of my lifetime for me and the vast majority of Scottish tories. Even an Ed government is something that can easily be endured by comparison.
0 -
Looks like the Belgian government has resigned.0
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Anyone know what share of the vote UKIP got in England outside London?0
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One of the bright Labour councillors in Bristol decides to desribe UKIP votes as thick & ignorant.
Fabian Breckels @fbreckels 7h
What is really worrying about #UKIP voters is most have no idea what #UKIP really stand for. Too thick and ignorant to care. Frightening.
Perhaps he could tell us why more votes backed UKIP rather than Ed M's formidable leadership?0 -
LibDems = Party of InSunil_Prasannan said:Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch ·3 mins
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"
SNP = Party of Independence
UKIP = Party of Indignant
Labour = Party of Indolent
Tories = Party of Industrial Output Increasing Across All Sectors.....
;-)
0 -
Afternoon all
As a Lib Dem supporter and Party member (one of the few still left it would seem) it's been a disastrous few days. The local elections were dreadful and the European Parliamentary elections about as catastrophic as it gets.
On my blog, I've set out my position in detail:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.co.uk/
Feel free to read if you want. The unpalatable truth is that since the tuition fees debacle, nothing Nick has said has made the slightest difference but it is important for him to be the scapegoat, to carry the sins of the party (and himself) into the wilderness and to be sent there not by the party but by the electorate just as happened to John Major and Gordon Brown.
Once the electorate have the final opportunity to give Nick a final kicking next year, it will be done, Nick can walk away and the Party can begin the long slow road to recovery as the Conservatives did after 1997 and Labour did after 1979. What the Party cannot do is try to cheat the gallows - that's fine if you are in Opposition but a man or woman in office - their comeuppance has to be delivered by the electorate.
Whether he is rejected by the voters of Sheffield Hallam or not, it will be the end for Nick Clegg next year but not until then.
0 -
I'm pretty sure it was a mistake, but given that I am a generous soul I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt... ;-)DavidL said:
Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about the future of the planet, not Kyoto. Not sure if that was deliberate or not.Charles said:
Conflating Ed Miliband and John Prescott was the most impressive... I can hard;y imagine two more different people!DavidL said:
Of course it is a joke. It mentions paying for things 3x. Labour politicians and supporters don't do that. A clear tell.Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
0 -
Clegg won't make the GE - I'm pretty sure. It's mightily unfair in many ways - he's been a great politician in many ways - he's delivered exactly what the LDs wanted, and actually his role has helped the UK too. His downfall is Europe.
0 -
UKIP will take a couple of Kent seats and maybe Portsmouth North. Labour have a chance of taking Hastings & Rye, maybe one or two of the Brighton seats, and possibly Reading.surbiton said:Out of 84 seats in the South East, the Tories won 75 in GE 2010. UKIP increased its vote share by 13.3%.
So are all Tory seats safe in the South East ? UKIP need not be the only beneficiary.0 -
EURO ELECTIONS:Lib Dems' Vince Cable: "Nick [Clegg] did a bold thing in standing up to the eurosceptic wave... There is no leadership issue."
Sir Humphrey,
Yes Minister
Remind what a bold decision really means.0 -
"Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about..."
Not surprising, given that Copenhagen a very brave and, by all a accounts, a very fine-looking horse. Wellington was much taken with him.0 -
Actually you seem to be making a stronger claim than the claim that Scotland should become independent. Since you think Scotland is a different demos to the rest of the UK, you'd think that the laws passed by the UK between the Act of Union and now have been _undemocratic_.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not sure why I have lost you it is very straightforward.edmundintokyo said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Not when the majority of law made in Brussels is decided by QMV.edmundintokyo said:
UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
You've lost me, the voters are represented the same amount via the minister they elect whether it's QMV, simple majority voting or unanimity.
Actually that's not quite true, unanimity effectively increases the representation of voters in small countries and correspondingly reduces the representation of voters in large countries like the UK.
QMV means that new laws can be imposed upon us by people we never had the opportunity to vote for as a country. If new laws require unanimity then the representative of the British government can prevent them being passed.
We do not have and do not want a European Demos. Laws affecting the United Kingdom should be made by people we have had the opportunity to vote for. That is democracy. The EU is not.
Oh and yes, before you ask, since I am in favour of Scots independence the same applies there as well.0 -
His downfall is not knowing which issues to choose to stand firm on.Omnium said:Clegg won't make the GE - I'm pretty sure. It's mightily unfair in many ways - he's been a great politician in many ways - he's delivered exactly what the LDs wanted, and actually his role has helped the UK too. His downfall is Europe.
Tuition Fees must remain the biggest disaster of all. It cost £1bn.
How much is Osborne adrift today on his 2010 budget deficit reduction road map ?0 -
Why doesnt Clegg do a John Major and a put up or shut up0
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... and buried him at his seat of Stratfield Saye, under a large spreading yew IIRC, did he not? I came across him one summer after camping at Silchester and wandering along the Roman road eastwards.HurstLlama said:"Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about..."
Not surprising, given that Copenhagen a very brave and, by all a accounts, a very fine-looking horse. Wellington was much taken with him.
0 -
Timshel!antifrank said:
I'll do some calculations and come back to you on this in the next few days, if I may.isam said:
Youre welcome to top up your 4/6 on UKIP getting less than 10% at the GE if you like?antifrank said:
Joke election, joke party. I'm feeling quite well disposed towards the daft old pooch today, having transferred a large sum of money into my bank account from Ladbrokes earlier this afternoon, part of which was attributable to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Senile enough to win the Euro election?antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
I'm currently weighing whether the odds on UKIP getting no MPs are going to improve over the next few days or whether now is as good as it gets. On balance I think those odds are likely to get better, so I'll hold off for now.
Or The Lib Dems out polling them at the same price
0 -
Have had a read. Interesting blog, Stodge.stodge said:Afternoon all
As a Lib Dem supporter and Party member (one of the few still left it would seem) it's been a disastrous few days. The local elections were dreadful and the European Parliamentary elections about as catastrophic as it gets.
On my blog, I've set out my position in detail:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.co.uk/
Feel free to read if you want. The unpalatable truth is that since the tuition fees debacle, nothing Nick has said has made the slightest difference but it is important for him to be the scapegoat, to carry the sins of the party (and himself) into the wilderness and to be sent there not by the party but by the electorate just as happened to John Major and Gordon Brown.
Once the electorate have the final opportunity to give Nick a final kicking next year, it will be done, Nick can walk away and the Party can begin the long slow road to recovery as the Conservatives did after 1997 and Labour did after 1979. What the Party cannot do is try to cheat the gallows - that's fine if you are in Opposition but a man or woman in office - their comeuppance has to be delivered by the electorate.
Whether he is rejected by the voters of Sheffield Hallam or not, it will be the end for Nick Clegg next year but not until then.
So Cell survives to face one last humiliation (his own) next year.
0 -
Northern Irish numbers:
SF 137000
DUP 95000
SDLP 67000
UUP 63000
TUV 57000
All 36000
UKIP 16000
Ni21 8000
Green 70000 -
Thanks for invitation, Mr Llama! Will hopefully remember that for the autumn. In case you're wondering, I have been on the Horsham to Littlehampton/Ford line a few years ago, and remember seeing Arundel Castle from the train.HurstLlama said:Hmmm, alright, but don't do it again.
Anyway, following your cough last evening about spending a whole day at the London Wetland centre, did you see my invitation to come and see us at the Arundel Wetlands. Get yourself to the station and we will take care of you from there. Autumn is a great time because then we have the Swans coming in from Russia.0 -
It looks like it could go down to the wire between Allister and Nicholson, after all. UKIP transfers may determine which Unionist gets the third seat.
0 -
Peter Hitchens @ClarkeMicah 40m
Peter Hitchens has weird interpretation of big UKIP vote - caused by voters supporting UKIP policies: http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/actually-they-voted-to-leave-the-eu-and-stop-mass-immigration.html …0 -
http://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/about/collections/pre-raphaelites/scapegoat/index.aspx perhaps refers?stodge said:Afternoon all
As a Lib Dem supporter and Party member (one of the few still left it would seem) it's been a disastrous few days. The local elections were dreadful and the European Parliamentary elections about as catastrophic as it gets.
On my blog, I've set out my position in detail:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.co.uk/
Feel free to read if you want. The unpalatable truth is that since the tuition fees debacle, nothing Nick has said has made the slightest difference but it is important for him to be the scapegoat, to carry the sins of the party (and himself) into the wilderness and to be sent there not by the party but by the electorate just as happened to John Major and Gordon Brown.
Once the electorate have the final opportunity to give Nick a final kicking next year, it will be done, Nick can walk away and the Party can begin the long slow road to recovery as the Conservatives did after 1997 and Labour did after 1979. What the Party cannot do is try to cheat the gallows - that's fine if you are in Opposition but a man or woman in office - their comeuppance has to be delivered by the electorate.
Whether he is rejected by the voters of Sheffield Hallam or not, it will be the end for Nick Clegg next year but not until then.
0 -
A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. - Everett Dirksensurbiton said:
His downfall is not knowing which issues to choose to stand firm on.Omnium said:Clegg won't make the GE - I'm pretty sure. It's mightily unfair in many ways - he's been a great politician in many ways - he's delivered exactly what the LDs wanted, and actually his role has helped the UK too. His downfall is Europe.
Tuition Fees must remain the biggest disaster of all. It cost £1bn.
How much is Osborne adrift today on his 2010 budget deficit reduction road map ?
0 -
For a first run the UKIP performance in NI has been quite impressive. Forecast 25,000 votes or 4% of the vote.Sean_F said:It looks like it could go down to the wire between Allister and Nicholson, after all. UKIP transfers may determine which Unionist gets the third seat.
0 -
There is no point getting rid of Clegg now. If the Libs were going to do it they should have done it in 2012. That way the councillors saved would be worth the acceptance that they had cocked things up.
Better now to at least keep continuity0 -
Does this have anything to do with the fact that according to the Federal Reserve "Belgium" now owns $382bn of US government debt having just added $40bn more last month? Their GDP is $483bn so "Belgium" has spent 79% of its net worth over recent months guying American debt notes.....ToryJim said:Looks like the Belgian government has resigned.
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0
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Stodge, I can see it came from your heart. I suppose you are right. Replacing him probably would make very little difference. But a ritual mauling is needed and thoroughly deserved. He felt he was clever and the knew more than the people [ both the electorate and his party workers ]. He doesn't come across to me as having pounded the pavements delivering leaflets etc. He came as the star from Brussels, picked by Godfather Ashdown, who himself has much to answer.stodge said:Afternoon all
As a Lib Dem supporter and Party member (one of the few still left it would seem) it's been a disastrous few days. The local elections were dreadful and the European Parliamentary elections about as catastrophic as it gets.
On my blog, I've set out my position in detail:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.co.uk/
Feel free to read if you want. The unpalatable truth is that since the tuition fees debacle, nothing Nick has said has made the slightest difference but it is important for him to be the scapegoat, to carry the sins of the party (and himself) into the wilderness and to be sent there not by the party but by the electorate just as happened to John Major and Gordon Brown.
Once the electorate have the final opportunity to give Nick a final kicking next year, it will be done, Nick can walk away and the Party can begin the long slow road to recovery as the Conservatives did after 1997 and Labour did after 1979. What the Party cannot do is try to cheat the gallows - that's fine if you are in Opposition but a man or woman in office - their comeuppance has to be delivered by the electorate.
Whether he is rejected by the voters of Sheffield Hallam or not, it will be the end for Nick Clegg next year but not until then.
The one leader you had who was trusted by the public, your MPs knifed him led by little Teather. She is another one who knows how to keep promises - not !!0 -
So when do you sack Miliband ?IOS said:There is no point getting rid of Clegg now. If the Libs were going to do it they should have done it in 2012. That way the councillors saved would be worth the acceptance that they had cocked things up.
Better now to at least keep continuity0 -
They also have three councillors in NI. Making UKIP, a truly UK party.Alanbrooke said:
For a first run the UKIP performance in NI has been quite impressive. Forecast 25,000 votes or 4% of the vote.Sean_F said:It looks like it could go down to the wire between Allister and Nicholson, after all. UKIP transfers may determine which Unionist gets the third seat.
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More pertinently, when do you sack Cameron under whom the party came 3rd for the first time in its history, did not win a single region of the country.?Alanbrooke said:
So when do you sack Miliband ?IOS said:There is no point getting rid of Clegg now. If the Libs were going to do it they should have done it in 2012. That way the councillors saved would be worth the acceptance that they had cocked things up.
Better now to at least keep continuity0 -
1. More which issues to avoid. Europe would be one.surbiton said:
His downfall is not knowing which issues to choose to stand firm on.Omnium said:Clegg won't make the GE - I'm pretty sure. It's mightily unfair in many ways - he's been a great politician in many ways - he's delivered exactly what the LDs wanted, and actually his role has helped the UK too. His downfall is Europe.
Tuition Fees must remain the biggest disaster of all. It cost £1bn.
How much is Osborne adrift today on his 2010 budget deficit reduction road map ?
2. Tuition fees - if it costs a billion somewhere it generally benefits a billion somewhere else. Stupid pledge, but a realistic end result.
3. Osborne is wildly at sea. We're still sailing by the bits of the map where 'monsters' are indicated. He has by some miracle done just enough. To steer such a fine course along the edge of oblivion seems an almost impossible task to me and yet somehow he's done it. My view is that it's quite a lot of luck mixed in with a small dollop of wisdom, but I may underestimate him.
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Indeed, it is clear the Lib Dems need to be more eurosceptic to win votes. But that's also true for the Tories, which she doesn't seem to realise.Sunil_Prasannan said:Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch ·3 mins
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"0 -
Although, according to Radio4, he was gay and in love with Marengo (unrequited, naturally)HurstLlama said:"Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about..."
Not surprising, given that Copenhagen a very brave and, by all a accounts, a very fine-looking horse. Wellington was much taken with him.
edit: to clarify, I am referring to Copenhagen!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b016vdwc0 -
yeah, one of the weirdest things going on at the moRochdalePioneers said:
Does this have anything to do with the fact that according to the Federal Reserve "Belgium" now owns $382bn of US government debt having just added $40bn more last month? Their GDP is $483bn so "Belgium" has spent 79% of its net worth over recent months guying American debt notes.....ToryJim said:Looks like the Belgian government has resigned.
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As we all know Surby if Cameron had been totally written off by his party he wouldn't be its leader. So looks like they still think he'll do better than Ed.surbiton said:
More pertinently, when do you sack Cameron under whom the party came 3rd for the first time in its history, did not win a single region of the country.?Alanbrooke said:
So when do you sack Miliband ?IOS said:There is no point getting rid of Clegg now. If the Libs were going to do it they should have done it in 2012. That way the councillors saved would be worth the acceptance that they had cocked things up.
Better now to at least keep continuity
Indeed I'm just looking at the parallels between this election and the last one
A weak PM, a time of austerity, a distrust of government and politics and still the opposition can't seal the deal and are slowly heading backwards.
Ed = heir to Cameron.0 -
I disagree. The Lib Dems have always done well as a pro-European party; I don't think that's their problem. The problems are that they've got lost in the Coalition, the benefits of the EU are poorly sold ("It's good for the economy" sounds hollow and patronising and ignores the social cost), and a measured response to Ukip is lacking.Socrates said:
Indeed, it is clear the Lib Dems need to be more eurosceptic to win votes.Sunil_Prasannan said:Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch ·3 mins
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"
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I think the Lib Dems will do better than expected at GE2015.
Last night will be their nadir.
I've always thought Clegg deserves a lot more credit than he's been given for delivering a
stable government and tackling the deficit. But then politics is a cruel business.
I reckon they'll hang on to 50 seats at the next GE with Clegg leading the party,0 -
Mr. Omnium, there are worse attributes to have than being fluky. Alexander benefited from tremendous luck for his entire life, and Caesar had a good dose of fortune too.
Mr. Fenster, I think 50's optimistic.0 -
ICM had Labour at 35% in the Euros a couple of months ago
wtf was that all about?0 -
With c.40,000 votes left to count, Sinn Fein are on 149,000, DUP 122,000, SDLP 81,000, UUP 71,000, TUV 69,000, All 40,000, UKIP 23,000, Green and NI 21 9,000 each, Con 1,000.0
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Where do you think they are going to gain seats in England? Scotland alone will put them below 50.Fenster said:I think the Lib Dems will do better than expected at GE2015.
Last night will be their nadir.
I've always thought Clegg deserves a lot more credit than he's been given for delivering a
stable government and tackling the deficit. But then politics is a cruel business.
I reckon they'll hang on to 50 seats at the next GE with Clegg leading the party,
I think maybe 30-35 is a more likely band.
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Yes, well, that nonsense said a lot about Stephen Fry and the BBC and damn all about a brave and jolly handsome horse.Charles said:
Although, according to Radio4, he was gay and in love with Marengo (unrequited, naturally)HurstLlama said:"Yes I think it was Copenhagen that he had his wee cry about..."
Not surprising, given that Copenhagen a very brave and, by all a accounts, a very fine-looking horse. Wellington was much taken with him.
edit: to clarify, I am referring to Copenhagen!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b016vdwc0 -
I'd trace Clegg's decline to the decision to raise VAT. The tuition fees back-peddle confirmed an impression that had already been created.0
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I hardly think losing more than 90% of their MEPs is doing well. They did everything they could to make the EU case work this time. Nobody wants it.Dadge said:
I disagree. The Lib Dems have always done well as a pro-European party; I don't think that's their problem. The problems are that they've got lost in the Coalition, the benefits of the EU are poorly sold ("It's good for the economy" sounds hollow and patronising and ignores the social cost), and a measured response to Ukip is lacking.Socrates said:
Indeed, it is clear the Lib Dems need to be more eurosceptic to win votes.Sunil_Prasannan said:Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch ·3 mins
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"0 -
"I've always thought Clegg deserves a lot more credit than he's been given for delivering aFenster said:I think the Lib Dems will do better than expected at GE2015.
Last night will be their nadir.
I've always thought Clegg deserves a lot more credit than he's been given for delivering a
stable government and tackling the deficit. But then politics is a cruel business.
I reckon they'll hang on to 50 seats at the next GE with Clegg leading the party,
stable government and tackling the deficit. But then politics is a cruel business"
If any credit is given, Osborne and the Tories will get it. The Liberals are being naive if they think the people will think of them.0 -
If Nigel Farage downs all those pints of bitter he is photographed with you would not want to be sharing a car with him at the end of the day.0
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Thanks for that - does look as if there was some moving around to and fro when one adds the refugee LDs.anotherDave said:
The Survation Scotland poll included a 2011 Holyrood past vote. UKIP attractedCarnyx said:
Ah, thanks for the refinement. Yes, you'd indeed need 4% from some other parties. But it is perfectly possible that the Tory increase would have been even greater had it not been for UKIP. I also wonder about turnout, now you mention it. Could the Euro have encouraged Europhobes to turn out disproportionately?DavidL said:
The UKIP vote in Scotland went from 5.3% to 10.5%, almost exactly doubling. The tory vote went up 0.4%. Given the main source of UKIP support is supposed to be disaffected tories I find this really odd.Carnyx said:
Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
23% 2011 Con
5% 2011 Lab
7% 2011 LD
8% 2011 SNP
(Table 17,p.20)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-full-tables-May.pdf
YouGov had similar numbers
22% 2011 Con
6% 2011 Lab
5% 2011 LD
8% 2011 SNP
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhj5fuzqb4/UniofCardiff_FoES_Scotland_140422_website_v1.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
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