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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s positi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure
Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign.
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Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
mike@politicalbetting.com
You get the feeling that it's a matter of when not if.
And I was someone upto a few weeks ago was quite confident in Clegg lasting until after the GE.
I'm half expecting David Tennant to turn up and say "Don't you think he looks tired"
I ask the question: What good would come if Clegg stayed ? What is this great difference that will happen in the next year ?
Even Labour is eating into the Lib Dem vote in SW England. SW London was not so good either.
In Kingston, with a sitting MP, the Lib Dems lost 13% in votes, roughly 1 in 3. UKIP beat Lib Dems in Sutton in the Euro.
Labour looking good in Bermondsey, Brent, Haringey.
By September any pretence that the Coalition can agree on anything else and implement it before the election will have ended and we will be in full election mode for the next 7 months (sigh). It would be the right time.
Ha ha ha !
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
UKIP are more like the rat. Fast breeding, get everywhere and capable of biting when cornered.
We had an idea of me seducing [censored], leader of [censored]
Kay Burley gets too excited!!!!!!!
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
There were points last night when I honestly thought I had lost. The EU authorities were claiming 36% turnout. Goodness knows where they got their figures from.
And where, is a critical point. Even more important is where their votes nationwide come from. Will they bugger things up more for Labour, or the Conservatives?
Or was that someone elses tagline?
Otherwise too Churchillian.
I can't imagine any FTSE company allowing its CEO to go on the media looking like that though. The share price would crash.
All those decades the Lib-Dems were hoping and praying for a hung parliament to get them into government and what happens when they finally get their wish? They hate every second of it, LOL!
I'm currently weighing whether the odds on UKIP getting no MPs are going to improve over the next few days or whether now is as good as it gets. On balance I think those odds are likely to get better, so I'll hold off for now.
The irony of UKIP - UKIP!!! - taming the whirlwind of anti-politics that burst forth over expenses is very funny.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/25/farage-17-years-later
We could be looking at a minority government followed by a quick election - tied to the Europe question perhaps?
great in the military, not so great in politics
The Tories could easily spend the last year as a minority government, so I imagine they'll be pretty sanguine about Clegg's apparent emotional break-down.
I agree, rats are a better simile for Ukip. You're never more than five yards away from one and there's a lot more of them than you suspect. And you'll never get rid of them,.
Or The Lib Dems out polling them at the same price
Talk of the LibDems reminds me that I was impressed by Tim Faron. He took it on the chin and was never grouchy. I think there is still hope for them. Come the GE, there will still be an anti-Tory constituency to milk. But soon afterwards the LDs will have a new leader.
The big mistake was making AV!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! And HOL reform more important to their coalition negotiations than implementing their tution fee's pledge. It looked so self-serving and has poisoned everything they've done since.
SINN FEIN 28%
DUP 23%
UUP 16%
SDLP 12%
TUV 10%
ALLIANCE 7%
UKIP 3%
I suggest those are the wrong way round if Clegg remains in post.
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"
The critics in his party are not suggesting that the party buckles, loses its nerve or walks away. They are suggesting that a serious review of Clegg's position is needed as many people just turn off when he speaks (a bit like Blair but not quite as bad!)
It will be a disaster if Clegg leads for the LibDems in any GE debate. Their best bet, if Clegg stays on, is to sabotage the discussions on the debates so that there are none.
I'm sitting here, credit card in hand, ready to phone the LibDem HQ, and rejoin the party the moment that I hear Clegg is standing down.
Incidentally Ashdown and Campbell are the party elite. The elite don't carry as much weight these days.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
Bye bye lib dem tories
Not looking good for next year though - My plan might just work!!!!
You only find that by very selectively looking at some things the Lib Dems said and ignoring a lot of things Tories said.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
"The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it."
I almost spat out my beer whilst reading that.
Bit of a headscratcher so I'm trying out a few theories.
I think the difference between the two sides of the border is this:
England first-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the Coalition is to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
But in Scotland-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP and the Coalition are to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
SNP say everything is getting better, and the SNP is the reason.
Spanish socialist leader quits after losing 9 of 23 MEPs. Clegg loses 10 of 11 Lib Dem MEPs....
May end up with a 'Why Nigel Farage will be the reason the UK stays in the EU" angle.