politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s positi

Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign.
Comments
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anyone got the pb email for a guest article?0
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Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.0 -
RodCrosby said:
anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
mike@politicalbetting.com0 -
Re Clegg's departure before the General Election.
You get the feeling that it's a matter of when not if.
And I was someone upto a few weeks ago was quite confident in Clegg lasting until after the GE.0 -
You'd think it would be more humane to put him out of his misery.0
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Re that picture.
I'm half expecting David Tennant to turn up and say "Don't you think he looks tired"0 -
Ashdown would make a good reassuring caretaker leader, not tainted by government.
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Mr. Eagles, he should stay, and I still think he will.0
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Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.0 -
I keep hearing what good would come if Clegg departed.
I ask the question: What good would come if Clegg stayed ? What is this great difference that will happen in the next year ?
Even Labour is eating into the Lib Dem vote in SW England. SW London was not so good either.
In Kingston, with a sitting MP, the Lib Dems lost 13% in votes, roughly 1 in 3. UKIP beat Lib Dems in Sutton in the Euro.
Labour looking good in Bermondsey, Brent, Haringey.
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"I don't agree with Nick"0
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Adam Boulton: thinks Clegg will lead the LibDems into the next election. He was uncertain whether there will be a meaningful LibDem party to lead after that though....0
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I owe DavidL £10 for Better Together from our bet on turnout. How/where do you want it sent, David? (Maybe best to reply by email with nickmp1 at aol.com as I'm off to Holland for 4 days)0
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Let's talk about Newark !0
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Clegg looks like a little boy about to blub in his Sky interview. Not a good look for a supposedly serious politician.0
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Politicians have thicker hides than most but an early resignation with a new leader being selected at the Conference in September and Nick staying on in a caretaker role till then looks a real possibility to me. There are defeats and there are humiliations. This is definitely in the latter category with the local election results far more damaging than the Euros.
By September any pretence that the Coalition can agree on anything else and implement it before the election will have ended and we will be in full election mode for the next 7 months (sigh). It would be the right time.0 -
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.0 -
GE map based on Euros twitter.com/BaileyNagy/status/470931030653018112/photo/10
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I love the inclusion of all the votes of an entirely separate party in the UKIP tally. As if the whole exercise of pretending that the Euro election were a general election had any validity at all in the first place.0
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Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
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Mr. Dadge, interesting from a theoretical perspective, but I would be quite surprised if UKIP got most votes and/or 110 seats in the General Election.0
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For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.0 -
Tigers are a highly endangered species, so not a good analogy. Maybe LibDems are the Tigers!
UKIP are more like the rat. Fast breeding, get everywhere and capable of biting when cornered.MikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.0 -
My Gf's mum is a cable fan - I'm a nick fan.
We had an idea of me seducing [censored], leader of [censored]
Kay Burley gets too excited!!!!!!!0 -
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.0 -
So would I, but Ukip have ammunition like this now to show that voting Ukip isn't necessarily a wasted vote, even under FPTP. My guess at the moment would be that Ukip will get seats in the double figures at the GE.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, interesting from a theoretical perspective, but I would be quite surprised if UKIP got most votes and/or 110 seats in the General Election.
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Just send it direct to Better Together Nick. I am more than happy to take your word on it.NickPalmer said:I owe DavidL £10 for Better Together from our bet on turnout. How/where do you want it sent, David? (Maybe best to reply by email with nickmp1 at aol.com as I'm off to Holland for 4 days)
There were points last night when I honestly thought I had lost. The EU authorities were claiming 36% turnout. Goodness knows where they got their figures from.
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Mr. Dadge, hmm. I wouldn't be shocked but I think single figures likelier.
And where, is a critical point. Even more important is where their votes nationwide come from. Will they bugger things up more for Labour, or the Conservatives?0 -
Farage "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government"
Or was that someone elses tagline?Dadge said:
So would I, but Ukip have ammunition like this now to show that voting Ukip isn't necessarily a wasted vote, even under FPTP. My guess at the moment would be that Ukip will get seats in the double figures at the GE.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, interesting from a theoretical perspective, but I would be quite surprised if UKIP got most votes and/or 110 seats in the General Election.
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Ashdown's position is bizarre.0
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One of Clegg's predecessors?foxinsoxuk said:Farage "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government"
Or was that someone elses tagline?0 -
I'll concede, provided we can name it Blondi.antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
Otherwise too Churchillian.
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Senile enough to win the Euro election?antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.0 -
Damned if he hid, damned if he gave an interview that screamed "broken LibDems on the slide..."Patrick said:Clegg looks like a little boy about to blub in his Sky interview. Not a good look for a supposedly serious politician.
I can't imagine any FTSE company allowing its CEO to go on the media looking like that though. The share price would crash.
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Nick and Danny very tired and emotional about it all, LOL!
All those decades the Lib-Dems were hoping and praying for a hung parliament to get them into government and what happens when they finally get their wish? They hate every second of it, LOL!0 -
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.
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To be fair, Mr. Gin, they could've handled many things better.0
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My last outstanding bet with fellow PBers is with Isam about the Lib Dems beating UKIP at the next election. Must admit to getting a bit twitchy about that one!0
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Any word from Lord Oakshott, (and Vince)?0
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heavy fighting at Donetsk airport apparently - can't imagine who'd want an airport in Donetsk0
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On topic, I agree with Mike. The only slight point I'd quibble on is the inference that Ashdown has the opportunity to have doubts in the future (which I'm reading as 'before the election'). He hasn't. He's nailed his colours to the mast now and can't perform a U-turn. There simply won't be the opportunity - what could justify going later and not now? If he's prepared to stand by Clegg after the mauling the Lib Dems have taken this week, he'll stand through anything.0
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Joke election, joke party. I'm feeling quite well disposed towards the daft old pooch today, having transferred a large sum of money into my bank account from Ladbrokes earlier this afternoon, part of which was attributable to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Senile enough to win the Euro election?antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
I'm currently weighing whether the odds on UKIP getting no MPs are going to improve over the next few days or whether now is as good as it gets. On balance I think those odds are likely to get better, so I'll hold off for now.0 -
You could have put a purple rosette on a donkey on Thursday and got it elected.... ;-)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Senile enough to win the Euro election?
The irony of UKIP - UKIP!!! - taming the whirlwind of anti-politics that burst forth over expenses is very funny.
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Cleggs aged in one day like Farage has in 17 years!!!
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/25/farage-17-years-later
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I'd like to think UKIP could get double figures as it would strengthen any coalition agreement with the Tories if they are the largest party after GE2015. I can't see any way that the LD's would go with the Tories again, and visa versa.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, hmm. I wouldn't be shocked but I think single figures likelier.
And where, is a critical point. Even more important is where their votes nationwide come from. Will they bugger things up more for Labour, or the Conservatives?
We could be looking at a minority government followed by a quick election - tied to the Europe question perhaps?0 -
Ryanair. Their new base for "greater London" flights....MrJones said:heavy fighting at Donetsk airport apparently - can't imagine who'd want an airport in Donetsk
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lolzMarqueeMark said:
Ryanair. Their new base for "greater London" flights....MrJones said:heavy fighting at Donetsk airport apparently - can't imagine who'd want an airport in Donetsk
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I wonder whether Dave and George have told Nick to pull himself together? Can't imagine there's much sympathy for Clegg inside Downing St after his game playing over the boundaries
The Tories could easily spend the last year as a minority government, so I imagine they'll be pretty sanguine about Clegg's apparent emotional break-down.0 -
Dr Fox,
I agree, rats are a better simile for Ukip. You're never more than five yards away from one and there's a lot more of them than you suspect. And you'll never get rid of them,.0 -
Youre welcome to top up your 4/6 on UKIP getting less than 10% at the GE if you like?antifrank said:
Joke election, joke party. I'm feeling quite well disposed towards the daft old pooch today, having transferred a large sum of money into my bank account from Ladbrokes earlier this afternoon, part of which was attributable to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Senile enough to win the Euro election?antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
I'm currently weighing whether the odds on UKIP getting no MPs are going to improve over the next few days or whether now is as good as it gets. On balance I think those odds are likely to get better, so I'll hold off for now.
Or The Lib Dems out polling them at the same price
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Mr Clegg remains an electoral asset for Labour. Hopefully he will stay until the day after the GE.0
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Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Talk of the LibDems reminds me that I was impressed by Tim Faron. He took it on the chin and was never grouchy. I think there is still hope for them. Come the GE, there will still be an anti-Tory constituency to milk. But soon afterwards the LDs will have a new leader.0 -
You can say that again.Morris_Dancer said:To be fair, Mr. Gin, they could've handled many things better.
The big mistake was making AV!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! And HOL reform more important to their coalition negotiations than implementing their tution fee's pledge. It looked so self-serving and has poisoned everything they've done since.
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I'll do some calculations and come back to you on this in the next few days, if I may.isam said:
Youre welcome to top up your 4/6 on UKIP getting less than 10% at the GE if you like?antifrank said:
Joke election, joke party. I'm feeling quite well disposed towards the daft old pooch today, having transferred a large sum of money into my bank account from Ladbrokes earlier this afternoon, part of which was attributable to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Senile enough to win the Euro election?antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.
I'm currently weighing whether the odds on UKIP getting no MPs are going to improve over the next few days or whether now is as good as it gets. On balance I think those odds are likely to get better, so I'll hold off for now.
Or The Lib Dems out polling them at the same price0 -
Shouldn't the French Open Tennis be sponsored by Front Nationale, and not by the BNP?0
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BBC NI vote share 'guess':
SINN FEIN 28%
DUP 23%
UUP 16%
SDLP 12%
TUV 10%
ALLIANCE 7%
UKIP 3%0 -
31-40 currently Ladbrokes 7/4 fav. in the L/D banded seats market but 21-30 has been backed into 7-2.
I suggest those are the wrong way round if Clegg remains in post.0 -
Indeed Sunil - Damn you Petronas!!! I'm team Massa Martini from now on.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shouldn't the French Open Tennis be sponsored by Front Nationale, and not by the BNP?
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If UKIP get 10 seats. I don't think any would be at the expense of Labour except, perhaps, Great Grimsby.Blue_rog said:
I'd like to think UKIP could get double figures as it would strengthen any coalition agreement with the Tories if they are the largest party after GE2015. I can't see any way that the LD's would go with the Tories again, and visa versa.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, hmm. I wouldn't be shocked but I think single figures likelier.
And where, is a critical point. Even more important is where their votes nationwide come from. Will they bugger things up more for Labour, or the Conservatives?
We could be looking at a minority government followed by a quick election - tied to the Europe question perhaps?0 -
Interesting, back to 40% for the Nationalists? (38% in the locals)SandyRentool said:BBC NI vote share 'guess':
SINN FEIN 28%
DUP 23%
UUP 16%
SDLP 12%
TUV 10%
ALLIANCE 7%
UKIP 3%0 -
Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch ·3 mins
What Clegg should be doing is talking about the GE and reviewing the LD's Eurofanaticism. "Party of In" = Party of Bin,"0 -
Clegg was a slippery as ever in that interview. He says "We're not going to buckle, we're not going to lose our nerve, we're not going to walk away.". He is actually talking about himself but he presents it as if he is talking about his party.
The critics in his party are not suggesting that the party buckles, loses its nerve or walks away. They are suggesting that a serious review of Clegg's position is needed as many people just turn off when he speaks (a bit like Blair but not quite as bad!)
It will be a disaster if Clegg leads for the LibDems in any GE debate. Their best bet, if Clegg stays on, is to sabotage the discussions on the debates so that there are none.
I'm sitting here, credit card in hand, ready to phone the LibDem HQ, and rejoin the party the moment that I hear Clegg is standing down.
Incidentally Ashdown and Campbell are the party elite. The elite don't carry as much weight these days.0 -
Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.-2 -
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?antifrank said:
Joke election, joke party.0 -
Mr. Gin, indeed, I was also thinking of the way the pro-coalition Lib Dems spent a lot of time publicly disagreeing with their coalition partners. Didn't look clever at the time and it's hard to claim credit when you spend months and years criticising the major partner of government.0
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I don't want Cable to take over !SandyRentool said:Mr Clegg remains an electoral asset for Labour. Hopefully he will stay until the day after the GE.
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Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
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Yes! - A real LMensch
Bye bye lib dem tories
Not looking good for next year though - My plan might just work!!!!0 -
Mr. Labour, huzzah for Comrade Miliband!0
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UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.0 -
Oh dear! Two old rat-bags fighting over the carcass of their fondest beliefs.antifrank said:
For once, Mr LP, you are mistaken.AveryLP said:
Me old WeathercockMikeK said:
How dare you compare UKIP to a pussycat, au contraire, UKIP are a Tiger, just don't get on our back.NickPalmer said:
Nice analogy! But the LibDems kept up their chameleon ability to seem similar to anyone they talked to until they actually took office. Bar the odd counci (maybe) UKIP isn't going to be responsible for anything for the next 11 months, so they can continue to be the purring cat inside the box.MarqueeMark said:Reposted from previous thread:
Jonathan said:
"Interesting interview with Nick Clegg. The words are defiant, but the body language is anything but. Appears wounded."
I heard him basically saying "I'll soldier on if you want me to, guys....." Ball in the court of the men in (yellow?) suits.
I still don't see the Libdems being listened to by the electorate whilst Clegg is there. It may just be Clegg's misfortune to be in charge when the box was opened on the Schrödinger's cat that had been the LibDems. But that is a fundamental structural failure in a party trying to be all things to all men and positioning itself for a role in a Coalition Govt.. Be careful what you wish for.
Ironically, there is a risk that UKIP may now have taken on this Schrödinger's cat mantle, when it has to take positions and is consequently being seen to be compromised: when they start having to be FOR something and no longer AGAINST everything.
UKIP is canine not feline.
It is a pit bull terrier trying to pass itself off as a poodle.
UKIP is a senile and flatulent bulldog.0 -
LOL. Good effort.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.
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http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increaseProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.
0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Gin, indeed, I was also thinking of the way the pro-coalition Lib Dems spent a lot of time publicly disagreeing with their coalition partners. Didn't look clever at the time and it's hard to claim credit when you spend months and years criticising the major partner of government.
You only find that by very selectively looking at some things the Lib Dems said and ignoring a lot of things Tories said.
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I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.0
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Just waiting for Sunil to post a spoof of that now!0
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Things can only get better.ProudToBeLabour said:Under the leadership of Ed Miliband, Labour are on course to win a historic majority in 2015.
The Tory toffs will deeply regret privatising the NHS. No doubt they thought the Bedroom Tax was a jolly wheeze on the Playing Fields of Eton. I am sure that Gideon Osborne's VAT increase will have sparked many a 'well done, old chap' over cigars and port at the Bullingdon Club.
Hardworking people up and down the country are worried about the Cost of Living Crisis. That's why Labour will cut the price of gas. That's why Labour will cut the price of rent. We will pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax. What did the Tories do? A tax cut for millionaires!
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP deny Climate Change, and therefore deny the solutions that are necessary in solving it, such as a bankers' bonus tax. This is the racism of the 21st century, and should be stigmatised just as much. The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories, and the BNP worship the false idol of 'merit' instead of relying on quotas and shortlists to impose equality on society in terms of gender and ethnicity. How can we have equality without quotas? This too should be forbidden by law. We will fund the campaign for this equalities act with a bankers' bonus tax. Our great deputy leader Harrier Harman has already gone part of the way into enshrining this this fundamental principle into law with her marvellous Equalities Act, and Labour will be rewarded for time immemorial. They will reward us just as they reward us for being the party of the Welfare State.
Reactionary parties such as UKIP, the Tories and the BNP want Britain to leave or renegotiate our membership of the EU. This cannot be allowed. We should reject the Anglophile, atlanticist alliances which have betrayed Britain, and instead, help the poor of Greece and Portugal out of their plight by picking up the tab for their welfare state; we can pay for it with a bankers' bonus tax.
Ed Miliband will adorn the annals of Labour party history, alongside other great leaders in the Labour pantheon. Ed Miliband will stand alongside Keir Hardie, Clement Attlee, and Gordon Brown.
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When are we going to get a Newark going UKIP thread ?0
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Mr. Patrick, Mr. Royale, it's quite the parody. Reading sarcasm and mockery online can be tricky, but I read it as a 100% piss take, and huzzah for that.0
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I'm intensely jealous that I didn't come up with that!RobD said:Just waiting for Sunil to post a spoof of that now!
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Not quite nowhere in vote terms (all percentage points, from memory)DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
about 6% from previous time
about 1.5% from BNP
and about 4% from other parties - I suspect some Tory but also some Labour as well as the Europhobes from other parties. There must have been some shifting around to accommodate the displaced LDs.
[edit - actually a little less than 4%, arithmetic a bit rusty!]
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Scotland has as many UKIP MEPs as London which, unlike Scotland, returned a Green MEP. It's hardly a different country, is it?DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
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Whoever wrote it, I'd like to thank them for giving me a blimmin' good laugh on a bk holiday Monday afternoon:Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
"The working class will recognise Ed Miliband's leadership at Kyoto and elsewhere on this burning issue, and will reward him handsomely for it."
I almost spat out my beer whilst reading that.0 -
Of course it is a joke. It mentions paying for things 3x. Labour politicians and supporters don't do that. A clear tell.Patrick said:I read ProudToBeLabour's piece - and immediately wondered if this is a troll at CCHQ having a laugh with his mates. Either that or some earnest commie is badly in need of a sense of humour bypass.
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Ah, so about as "jokey" (per Antifrank) as the Euro Parliament.edmundintokyo said:
UK general elections decide which ministers the UK sends to Brussels to decide what laws will and won't originate there, so yes, they do matter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In that case, do GEs really "matter", given that so much of our governance originates in Brussels?RodCrosby said:
UKIP did very well.... under PR in an election that doesn't matter, on a half-arsed turnout...isam said:
Be sure not to mention that UKIP did well last nightRodCrosby said:anyone got the pb email for a guest article?
My article is about the next real election in 2015. It doesn't mention UKIP, or the LibDems.0 -
I'd rather trust the REAL Nationwide figures from last Thursday, than some "opinion" "poll"corporeal said:0 -
Whenever I hear Queen's One Vision I can't not think of Ed!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I'm intensely jealous that I didn't come up with that!RobD said:Just waiting for Sunil to post a spoof of that now!
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Yes, the Scottish result was strange. The Tory vote was up marginally and even the LD vote was holding up slightly better than elsewhere in the Northern seats with LD incumbents.DavidL said:
Agreed. Not one of his better efforts. One of the strangest results on a strange night is UKIP coming from nowhere to win a seat in Scotland AND the tory vote rising at the same time (albeit by MoE levels).SouthamObserver said:Talk of Better Together reminds me of how graceless and grumpy Alex Salmond was on the telly last night. I know Scotland is a different country, but that can't have been appealing to many people anywhere, can it?
Where did the UKIP supporters come from? It would be fascinating to know. The obvious answer is ex Lib Dems and given what happened elsewhere I don't think that can be ruled out. I also wonder if some SNP supporters are not completely engaged with Salmond's love affair with the EU.
Anyway with 63% of the votes for Unionist parties it was a good night for no.
I think the difference between the two sides of the border is this:
England first-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the Coalition is to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
But in Scotland-
UKIP say everything today is crap and getting worse, and immigrants/EU are to blame.
The press say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP are to blame.
Labour say everything is crap and getting worse, and the SNP and the Coalition are to blame.
Coalition say everything is getting better, and the Coalition is the reason.
SNP say everything is getting better, and the SNP is the reason.
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0
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My guess is because UKIP repels as much as it attracts. Also, it may be an indicator of an improving economy.corporeal said:
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Jason Beattie @JBeattieMirror ·1 hr
Spanish socialist leader quits after losing 9 of 23 MEPs. Clegg loses 10 of 11 Lib Dem MEPs....0 -
I'm tempted to open a new Vanilla account called ProudToBeALibDem and create a beardy yoghurt knitting diatribe. Anybody care to write this for me? Quotes/bullets/paras/soundbites all gratefully received!0
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Probably, Farage already admitted something like that in an interview, and said he wouldn't lead a referendum campaign because of it.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is because UKIP repels as much as it attracts. Also, it may be an indicator of an improving economy.corporeal said:
May end up with a 'Why Nigel Farage will be the reason the UK stays in the EU" angle.0