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Quite what is driving the betting is hard to say but Chancellor Sunak has moved sharply and as I write (2100 BST) is only 1% behind the LAB leader.
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First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.0 -
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Surely it’s not your ex you need to worry about having the clap?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
Anyway, it is 9.12. In under three hours I officially start a new job,* and I am off to get some sleep to be ready for it.
I hope to be back on PB at some point in the near future, and hopefully not because I’ve been locked down again. However, in case it’s a while, thank you for all your companionship this summer, and the many interesting discussions we have had about the great issues of the day. Oh, and US politics as well, of course.
Good night, and have a good week.
*obviously I don’t *actually* go in at midnight.7 -
The problem Sunak cannot do that and not risk a huge debt mountain in extending furlough well beyond lockdown for jobs that may not come back, retraining would be betterTheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.0 -
Enjoy.ydoethur said:
Surely it’s not your ex you need to worry about having the clap?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
Anyway, it is 9.12. In under three hours I officially start a new job,* and I am off to get some sleep to be ready for it.
I hope to be back on PB at some point in the near future, and hopefully not because I’ve been locked down again. However, in case it’s a while, thank you for all your companionship this summer, and the many interesting discussions we have had about the great issues of the day. Oh, and US politics as well, of course.
Good night, and have a good week.
*obviously I don’t *actually* go in at midnight.0 -
I wish you every success in your vital work and for your contributions to PB in due courseydoethur said:
Surely it’s not your ex you need to worry about having the clap?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
Anyway, it is 9.12. In under three hours I officially start a new job,* and I am off to get some sleep to be ready for it.
I hope to be back on PB at some point in the near future, and hopefully not because I’ve been locked down again. However, in case it’s a while, thank you for all your companionship this summer, and the many interesting discussions we have had about the great issues of the day. Oh, and US politics as well, of course.
Good night, and have a good week.
*obviously I don’t *actually* go in at midnight.
Keep safe2 -
Not with those who have been working for months.TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.1 -
Good luck with the new job ydoethur.0
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Rishi only gets to be PM if BoZo leaves early.
Happy Days...0 -
The interesting thing with Sunak is now he isn't just the fresh faced 250/1 outsider, he's facing real challenges - and while balancing the books will be a very different challenge what he has faced so far he has dealt with adroitly.
- The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
- The Meal Deal scheme was an interesting creation - it was assumed by many to be a gimmick at first but it has really got people talking and spending. Interestingly too though is that for headline items by a Chancellor normally expenditure gets spoken about in the order of billions here and billions there. This has been a major headline development that has cost the Treasury "only" half a billion pounds - probably less when you consider consequentials like additional duties brought in from alcohol sales, reduced expenditure on welfare for those who could have been laid off etc
1 - The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
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Or if Boris is re-elected and retires towards the end of the next Parliament after nearly a decade as PM.Scott_xP said:Rishi only gets to be PM if BoZo leaves early.
Happy Days...0 -
AG Barr? Girders to reinforce the WH?TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Would add. The self employed income support grant. Super simple to access and efficiently discharged. So little red tape that we had difficulty providing proof we had got it.Philip_Thompson said:The interesting thing with Sunak is now he isn't just the fresh faced 250/1 outsider, he's facing real challenges - and while balancing the books will be a very different challenge what he has faced so far he has dealt with adroitly.
- The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
- The Meal Deal scheme was an interesting creation - it was assumed by many to be a gimmick at first but it has really got people talking and spending. Interestingly too though is that for headline items by a Chancellor normally expenditure gets spoken about in the order of billions here and billions there. This has been a major headline development that has cost the Treasury "only" half a billion pounds - probably less when you consider consequentials like additional duties brought in from alcohol sales, reduced expenditure on welfare for those who could have been laid off etc
Am not aware of any widespread errors or anomalies. HMRC more broadly has had a good pandemic.4 - The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
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1) Is of course as much down to the quality of the people who were able to implement the policy at HMRC in double quick time & keep on top of all the changes. My PSC ltd company has had a never ending stream of emails informing me of exactly what I needed to do in order to claim the various furlough scheme payments should I have wished to do so. Plus all the information has been there on the HMRC website & the systems put in place to deal with everything.Philip_Thompson said:The interesting thing with Sunak is now he isn't just the fresh faced 250/1 outsider, he's facing real challenges - and while balancing the books will be a very different challenge what he has faced so far he has dealt with adroitly.
- The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
- The Meal Deal scheme was an interesting creation - it was assumed by many to be a gimmick at first but it has really got people talking and spending. Interestingly too though is that for headline items by a Chancellor normally expenditure gets spoken about in the order of billions here and billions there. This has been a major headline development that has cost the Treasury "only" half a billion pounds - probably less when you consider consequentials like additional duties brought in from alcohol sales, reduced expenditure on welfare for those who could have been laid off etc
By way of contrast, look at the way the US was simply unable to implement parts of the planned scheme because (IIRC) of a lack of COBOL programmers able to implement the required changes at short notice.
Sunak made the right policy decision & was fortunate in that his predecessors & their civil servants had left him with a department that was capable of implementing that policy. It’s easy to praise the person at the top whilst overlooking the army of people who were actually responsible for doing the work. The civil service has taken a lot of knocks from this government, but here at least they appear to have worked hard & made things happen in response to government policy decisions; three cheers.
2) Does seem to have been a surprisingly high return decision. Certainly more than I would have predicted!1 - The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
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The vaccine in question is the Oxford/AZ one. The British government has an order with AZ, and expects to get 30 million doses by the end of September, rising to 100 million by year end.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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I wonder if it's rewritten the playbook for pre-election budgets too. We could see variations of the scheme on a regular basis.Phil said:2) Does seem to have been a surprisingly high return decision. Certainly more than I would have predicted!
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Has to be forced choice - otherwise adding up to 100% would make no sense.Alistair said:0 -
@HYUFD
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/13005253587401318410 -
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The Trump surge is real.Alistair said:
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).0 -
Rishi is clearly a smart cookie, and ought to be on the PM track (though he will test the "taller men win" theory to destruction). But...Philip_Thompson said:The interesting thing with Sunak is now he isn't just the fresh faced 250/1 outsider, he's facing real challenges - and while balancing the books will be a very different challenge what he has faced so far he has dealt with adroitly.
- The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
- The Meal Deal scheme was an interesting creation - it was assumed by many to be a gimmick at first but it has really got people talking and spending. Interestingly too though is that for headline items by a Chancellor normally expenditure gets spoken about in the order of billions here and billions there. This has been a major headline development that has cost the Treasury "only" half a billion pounds - probably less when you consider consequentials like additional duties brought in from alcohol sales, reduced expenditure on welfare for those who could have been laid off etc
A year ago, he had only just joined the Cabinet.
Five years ago, he had only just become an MP.
There's promoting talent, and there's build 'em up to knock 'em down. And the fact that he's the best bet if Boris gets knocked down by a bus tomorrow (Raab was broken by the Covid interregnum, Patel is blatantly not up to it, Gove is too strange) shows how shallow the talent pool is right now.0 - The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
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Speak for America!
Joe Biden must speak not just for his supporters, but for the nation
https://thebulwark.com/speak-for-america/1 -
@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
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Yes, the question was, "If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?"rcs1000 said:
Has to be forced choice - otherwise adding up to 100% would make no sense.Alistair said:
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions0 -
If true it would mean Biden was matching the voteshare of Obama in 2012 and Trump had the highest voteshare of any Republican candidate since George W Bush in 2004 and we are heading for another cliffhanger election but obviously it is only one pollAlistair said:0 -
Biden has dropped about a percent on the 538 polling average to 50.2%, while Trump has edged up to 43.1%.Anabobazina said:
The Trump surge is real.Alistair said:
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).0 -
Best of luck @ydoethur, I hope it is not long before we meet again friend but if it is, thank you for your kindness, your good grace and your interesting posts. All the very best to you and your family.1
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By the way, loved the "Biden: Acceptable under the circumstances" film someone posted earlier.1
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I assume that’s a lagging indicator though? (I’d love it to be right, of course)rcs1000 said:
Biden has dropped about a percent on the 538 polling average to 50.2%, while Trump has edged up to 43.1%.Anabobazina said:
The Trump surge is real.Alistair said:
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).0 -
Trump won independents 47% to 42% so not that far off, however he has pushed up his share of Democrats from 9% to 18%rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
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Well yes. But don't forget that we had four polls today:Anabobazina said:
I assume that’s a lagging indicator though? (I’d love it to be right, of course)rcs1000 said:
Biden has dropped about a percent on the 538 polling average to 50.2%, while Trump has edged up to 43.1%.Anabobazina said:
The Trump surge is real.Alistair said:
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).
Emerson: 51 vs 49
USC Dorsife: 54 vs 40
RMG: 49 vs 45
HarrisX: 47 vs 38
You have a fairly wide range of polls today, with leads ranging from 2 to 14 points for Biden.0 -
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.0 -
So Trump wins on the day, Biden brings it back through mail and the winners are the lawyers heading for Florida, Pennsylvania and Minnesotarcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/13005253587401318411 -
There’s also a nod to an ongoing philosophical debate which the FT guy has missed.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine in question is the Oxford/AZ one. The British government has an order with AZ, and expects to get 30 million doses by the end of September, rising to 100 million by year end.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve seen it in the context of Alzheimer’s vaccines. Let’s say that you have something that you know is safe and cheap. And it *may* prevent Alzheimer’s. Is it ethical to prescribe on a mass basis.
Given the drug approval is a balance of risk and reward then this is a case of low risk and potentially high reward. So - counterintuitively - it can be rational to prescribe something even if you don’t *know* if it works0 -
Oh, thanks.rcs1000 said:
Well yes. But don't forget that we had four polls today:Anabobazina said:
I assume that’s a lagging indicator though? (I’d love it to be right, of course)rcs1000 said:
Biden has dropped about a percent on the 538 polling average to 50.2%, while Trump has edged up to 43.1%.Anabobazina said:
The Trump surge is real.Alistair said:
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).
Emerson: 51 vs 49
USC Dorsife: 54 vs 40
RMG: 49 vs 45
HarrisX: 47 vs 38
You have a fairly wide range of polls today, with leads ranging from 2 to 14 points for Biden.
I looked on RCP for new polls but none were shown.
Thanks again for the update.0 -
Trump going from a five point lead to an eight point deficit with Independents would be a pretty poor performance, though. Especially as the number of registered independents has rise and the number of registered Republicans has fallen.HYUFD said:
Trump won independents 47% to 42% so not that far off, however he has pushed up his share of Democrats from 9% to 18%rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election2 -
There's a lot to be said for "acceptable under the circumstances". it embodies both Losers Consent and Winners Grace. Had that been the slogan for Dave's Deal, or TMay's Brexit plan, or Hunt over Johnson, or Burnham over Corbyn, would the UK really have been in a worse place than it is now?rcs1000 said:By the way, loved the "Biden: Acceptable under the circumstances" film someone posted earlier.
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Yep. That's pretty much spot on.HYUFD said:
So Trump wins on the day, Biden brings it back through mail and the winners are the lawyers heading for Florida, Pennsylvania and Minnesotarcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/13005253587401318412 -
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.0 -
You missed out the social unrest on the streets. Trump's armed cult nuts will go bonkers if he wins on the day and Biden refuses to concede because of mail ballots.rcs1000 said:
Yep. That's pretty much spot on.HYUFD said:
So Trump wins on the day, Biden brings it back through mail and the winners are the lawyers heading for Florida, Pennsylvania and Minnesotarcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/13005253587401318410 -
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1300418309683400707rcs1000 said:By the way, loved the "Biden: Acceptable under the circumstances" film someone posted earlier.
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...0
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Indeed.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
It assumes Democrats not turning out as much and assumes that those Democrats that do turn out are more likely to vote for Trump than Republicans voting against Trump.
Neither assumption strikes me as solid.0 -
Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
Literally ANY diet programme would be better than the NHS telling people they're obese and doing absolutely nothing to help them lose weightrottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.0 -
PM after Boris? Wilfred Johnson.0
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Brown, initially popular then very unpopularWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.0 -
"I've got the best word score."CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
The last Chancellor to do that was Gordon Brown, he had some initial popularity which led to articles like thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years, including winning a general election.0 -
Meanwhile Joe Kennedy III fighting hard on the eve of his tough Democratic Senatorial primary tomorrow in Massachussetts against incumbent Ed Markey
https://twitter.com/joekennedy/status/1300543638716506112?s=200 -
Both did lose elections eventuallyTheScreamingEagles said:
The last Chancellor to do that was Gordon Brown, he had some initial popularity which led to articles like thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years.0 -
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Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.1 -
Major had a 50% record, better than Brown's 0% record in winning GEs.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Both did lose elections eventuallyTheScreamingEagles said:
The last Chancellor to do that was Gordon Brown, he had some initial popularity which led to articles like thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years.0 -
I've recently been betting on Priti Patel.kle4 said:PM after Boris? Wilfred Johnson.
I hate myself for that but we are where we are.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300545034215985152
Why would they want to save something we want to abolish?0 -
His succession route wasn't that similar. I doubt Thatcher would have tolerated 10 years of psychodrama from someone like Gordon Brown.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last Chancellor to do that was Gordon Brown, he had some initial popularity which led to articles like thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years, including winning a general election.0 -
Correct.TheScreamingEagles said:
Major had a 50% record, better than Brown's 0% record in winning GEs.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Both did lose elections eventuallyTheScreamingEagles said:
The last Chancellor to do that was Gordon Brown, he had some initial popularity which led to articles like thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years.0 -
'Cruel decision harming millions' my arse. Paper pandering to people more likely to buy papers more like.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300545034215985152
Why would they want to save something we want to abolish?1 -
GOP people don't care. They have no interest in the good governance of their country. This is the Trump Party now.CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
No, the Newcastle diet (Roy Taylor's work) is very specific as to the amount you need to lose and the best way to do it. It is a diet for pre-diabetes and diabetes not a general diet for the overweight.Grandiose said:
Literally ANY diet programme would be better than the NHS telling people they're obese and doing absolutely nothing to help them lose weightrottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/1
Many people would think it is madly brutal until they try it. Most GPs would actively recommend NOT to do what Taylor has found works - 800 cals a day. Rapid weight loss. Meals of shakes and soup. Fat stripped from liver, pancreas and other organs.0 -
Good GOP people have left the party this year.rottenborough said:
GOP people don't care. They have no interest in the good governance of their country. This is the Trump Party now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The GOP is down to representing a quarter of the population now not half of it. I won't find any names for that quarter.0 -
For at least 3 of those, Farage would still be a force in the land.Stuartinromford said:
There's a lot to be said for "acceptable under the circumstances". it embodies both Losers Consent and Winners Grace. Had that been the slogan for Dave's Deal, or TMay's Brexit plan, or Hunt over Johnson, or Burnham over Corbyn, would the UK really have been in a worse place than it is now?rcs1000 said:By the way, loved the "Biden: Acceptable under the circumstances" film someone posted earlier.
So yes - worse place.1 -
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.1 -
Gordon BrownWulfrun_Phil said:
Who was the last Chancellor to replace a sitting PM in office? Was he popular when he took over? And if so how long did that popularity last?TheScreamingEagles said:First.
Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
and before that
John Major1 -
In 17 days absentee ballots stay arriving in Wisconsin.0
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I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.0 -
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Conversely if Trump can disrupt the counting of mail in ballots on the night, it could really create chaos.rcs1000 said:
If states can organise to get most mail in ballots counted on the night (or even before) it could really make a difference.Alistair said:In 17 days absentee ballots stay arriving in Wisconsin.
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On current trends the USA could overtake Sweden in deaths per capita this week.
Sweden.0 -
Oh, they are the anti-free trade, white nationalist party. Not a lot to like about that policy platform.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.1 -
There are special considerations here, though, because of the likely behavioural changes associated with giving people the vaccine. If you approve a vaccine which may not be effective, it could make things worse as those who receive the vaccine think they are now safe and therefore stop taking precautions,.Charles said:
There’s also a nod to an ongoing philosophical debate which the FT guy has missed.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine in question is the Oxford/AZ one. The British government has an order with AZ, and expects to get 30 million doses by the end of September, rising to 100 million by year end.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve seen it in the context of Alzheimer’s vaccines. Let’s say that you have something that you know is safe and cheap. And it *may* prevent Alzheimer’s. Is it ethical to prescribe on a mass basis.
Given the drug approval is a balance of risk and reward then this is a case of low risk and potentially high reward. So - counterintuitively - it can be rational to prescribe something even if you don’t *know* if it works2 -
It's done at a state level.williamglenn said:
Conversely if Trump can disrupt the counting of mail in ballots on the night, it could really create chaos.rcs1000 said:
If states can organise to get most mail in ballots counted on the night (or even before) it could really make a difference.Alistair said:In 17 days absentee ballots stay arriving in Wisconsin.
The Dems have the Governorships of WI, PA and MI. The Republicans have FL, AZ and IA.
Make of that what you will.0 -
Not a lot at all.rcs1000 said:
Oh, they are the anti-free trade, white nationalist party. Not a lot to like about that policy platform.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
And their budget deficit policies are absolutely atrocious as well. The US deficit was already eyewatering even pre-COVID. The forecasts for American interest payments in forthcoming decades are absolute insane, the USA is going to go bankrupt without serious change even before COVID hit.
They are pretty much the polar opposite to Cameroon Conservatives.0 -
I'm not sure why - it is well known that Type 2 is reversible by diet. The NHS used to put sufferers on a special diet back in the day, but have stopped doing this in favour of insulin in recent years - stupidly. I'm glad they are restoring diet to the equation (though to be honest, soup and shake doesn't appear to be the healthiest way to do it), and it bodes well for introducing diet as a greater consideration in medical treatment, but it isn't a new discovery.rottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/12 -
Indeed. Rather than fix the roof while the Sun is shining, Trump appears to have made all house coverings illegal in the middle of a monsoon.Philip_Thompson said:
Not a lot at all.rcs1000 said:
Oh, they are the anti-free trade, white nationalist party. Not a lot to like about that policy platform.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
And their budget deficit policies are absolutely atrocious as well. The US deficit was already eyewatering even pre-COVID. The forecasts for American interest payments in forthcoming decades are absolute insane, the USA is going to go bankrupt without serious change even before COVID hit.
They are pretty much the polar opposite to Cameroon Conservatives.4 -
And the great flood that follows shall cleanse the earth of the wicked. Or something.dixiedean said:
Indeed. Rather than fix the roof while the Sun is shining, Trump appears to have made all house coverings illegal in the middle of a monsoon.Philip_Thompson said:
Not a lot at all.rcs1000 said:
Oh, they are the anti-free trade, white nationalist party. Not a lot to like about that policy platform.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
And their budget deficit policies are absolutely atrocious as well. The US deficit was already eyewatering even pre-COVID. The forecasts for American interest payments in forthcoming decades are absolute insane, the USA is going to go bankrupt without serious change even before COVID hit.
They are pretty much the polar opposite to Cameroon Conservatives.2 -
I thought almost all postal ballots were counted on the night.
In many instances, I think a chunk of postal ballots have actually been counted first - hence substantial vote totals when only 1% of precincts have reported.
In past Presidential elections whilst it's true that vote totals have continued to rise in the days after the election, in most states they haven't risen that much - certainly nothing like by the numbers of postal ballots.0 -
There's a reason why type 2 diabetes hardly existed between 1940 and 1955.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure why - it is well known that Type 2 is reversible by diet. The NHS used to put sufferers on a special diet back in the day, but have stopped doing this in favour of insulin in recent years - stupidly. I'm glad they are restoring diet to the equation (though to be honest, soup and shake doesn't appear to be the healthiest way to do it), and it bodes well for introducing diet as a greater consideration in medical treatment, but it isn't a new discovery.rottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
Well Noah did have sex with his daughters after the flood. Given the way that Trump has spoken about Ivanka in the past . . .kle4 said:
And the great flood that follows shall cleanse the earth of the wicked. Or something.dixiedean said:
Indeed. Rather than fix the roof while the Sun is shining, Trump appears to have made all house coverings illegal in the middle of a monsoon.Philip_Thompson said:
Not a lot at all.rcs1000 said:
Oh, they are the anti-free trade, white nationalist party. Not a lot to like about that policy platform.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
And their budget deficit policies are absolutely atrocious as well. The US deficit was already eyewatering even pre-COVID. The forecasts for American interest payments in forthcoming decades are absolute insane, the USA is going to go bankrupt without serious change even before COVID hit.
They are pretty much the polar opposite to Cameroon Conservatives.0 -
Do you have the figures? I wouldn't be surprised if it went up after 55 but I would be surprised if it went down after 40.Andy_JS said:
There's a reason why type 2 diabetes hardly existed between 1940 and 1955.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure why - it is well known that Type 2 is reversible by diet. The NHS used to put sufferers on a special diet back in the day, but have stopped doing this in favour of insulin in recent years - stupidly. I'm glad they are restoring diet to the equation (though to be honest, soup and shake doesn't appear to be the healthiest way to do it), and it bodes well for introducing diet as a greater consideration in medical treatment, but it isn't a new discovery.rottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
It was very low before 1940 anyway AFAIK. I don't have the figures at the moment but I was told this by someone who's worked in that field for a long time.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do you have the figures? I wouldn't be surprised if it went up after 55 but I would be surprised if it went down after 40.Andy_JS said:
There's a reason why type 2 diabetes hardly existed between 1940 and 1955.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure why - it is well known that Type 2 is reversible by diet. The NHS used to put sufferers on a special diet back in the day, but have stopped doing this in favour of insulin in recent years - stupidly. I'm glad they are restoring diet to the equation (though to be honest, soup and shake doesn't appear to be the healthiest way to do it), and it bodes well for introducing diet as a greater consideration in medical treatment, but it isn't a new discovery.rottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
That's my supposition too. The joys of the modern diet...Andy_JS said:
It was very low before 1940 anyway AFAIK. I don't have the figures at the moment but I was told this by someone who's worked in that field for a long time.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do you have the figures? I wouldn't be surprised if it went up after 55 but I would be surprised if it went down after 40.Andy_JS said:
There's a reason why type 2 diabetes hardly existed between 1940 and 1955.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm not sure why - it is well known that Type 2 is reversible by diet. The NHS used to put sufferers on a special diet back in the day, but have stopped doing this in favour of insulin in recent years - stupidly. I'm glad they are restoring diet to the equation (though to be honest, soup and shake doesn't appear to be the healthiest way to do it), and it bodes well for introducing diet as a greater consideration in medical treatment, but it isn't a new discovery.rottenborough said:Prof Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel for medicine for this discovery.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/10 -
Pretty good speech by Biden today. It'll be interesting to see the next tranche of opinions polls, (taken after the speech).0
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The Republican Party at the moment is not the party of Reagan or even the Bushes but basically a US version of UKIP under Trump.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
The Democrats meanwhile are mainly a combination of Cameroon Tories and LDs and Starmer Labour with some Bernie Sanders Corbynites on the fringe, pretty much the whole of UK politics would be within one wing of the Democratic Party or another with the exception of the most ardent Brexiteers like Farage, Francois and Rees Mogg who would still be behind Trump0 -
We are already ahead of Sweden in deaths per capita, as are Belgium, Spain, Italy and Peru and ChilePhilip_Thompson said:On current trends the USA could overtake Sweden in deaths per capita this week.
Sweden.1 -
The irony here is that Starmer's price is lengthening because he's doing well - it increases the chance that the Tories will replace Johnson early. If Starmer was slumping then Johnson would be safe.1
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HYUFD said:
So Trump wins on the day, Biden brings it back through mail and the winners are the lawyers heading for Florida, Pennsylvania and Minnesotarcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/13005253587401318411 -
Indeed, Major only replaced Thatcher after Kinnock gained a big poll leadNickPalmer said:The irony here is that Starmer's price is lengthening because he's doing well - it increases the chance that the Tories will replace Johnson early. If Starmer was slumping then Johnson would be safe.
0 -
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Though that being said Trump does resemble Barry Goldwater or Pat Buchanan in much of his policy platform combined with some of George WallaceHYUFD said:
The Republican Party at the moment is not the party of Reagan or even the Bushes but basically a US version of UKIP under Trump.Philip_Thompson said:
I understand that America isn't the UK and there are differences but I believe I could and would support the GOP of 1988 - Reagan was a great man like Thatcher and the GOP were sane then. I couldn't support the GOP of today, they're batshit crazy.rcs1000 said:
It's an excellent point - simply more people are Registered Democrats (irrespective of how they vote).Pulpstar said:
Registered Dems still outnumber registered republicans in WV.rcs1000 said:
It's also hard to match those numbers with the partisan split in the US, unless you believe turnout among Registered Democrats will be a lot lower than among Registered Republicans. (Possible for sure, but not likely.)Philip_Thompson said:
18% of Democrats are backing Trump? 😕rcs1000 said:@HYUFD
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
The Democrats meanwhile are mainly a combination of Cameroon Tories and LDs and Starmer Labour with some Bernie Sanders Corbynites on the fringe, pretty much the whole of UK politics would be within one wing of the Democratic Party or another with the exception of the most ardent Brexiteers like Farage, Francois and Rees Mogg who would still be behind Trump0
This discussion has been closed.