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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be heading for crossover in the next PM betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be heading for crossover in the next PM betting
Quite what is driving the betting is hard to say but Chancellor Sunak has moved sharply and as I write (2100 BST) is only 1% behind the LAB leader.
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Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't extend the furlough scheme.
Anyway, it is 9.12. In under three hours I officially start a new job,* and I am off to get some sleep to be ready for it.
I hope to be back on PB at some point in the near future, and hopefully not because I’ve been locked down again. However, in case it’s a while, thank you for all your companionship this summer, and the many interesting discussions we have had about the great issues of the day. Oh, and US politics as well, of course.
Good night, and have a good week.
*obviously I don’t *actually* go in at midnight.
Keep safe
Happy Days...
- The furlough scheme was created and implemented smoothly and quickly - when it was announced many assumed if nothing else it would be a digital disaster and it hasn't been.
- The Meal Deal scheme was an interesting creation - it was assumed by many to be a gimmick at first but it has really got people talking and spending. Interestingly too though is that for headline items by a Chancellor normally expenditure gets spoken about in the order of billions here and billions there. This has been a major headline development that has cost the Treasury "only" half a billion pounds - probably less when you consider consequentials like additional duties brought in from alcohol sales, reduced expenditure on welfare for those who could have been laid off etc
If the Treasury is facing a few lean years ahead then a few more developments like the Meal Deal that have a big return but don't break the bank would be very good for the country. Beats previous Chancellors normally throwing a few billion at a problem area and hoping it goes away as a result.Am not aware of any widespread errors or anomalies. HMRC more broadly has had a good pandemic.
By way of contrast, look at the way the US was simply unable to implement parts of the planned scheme because (IIRC) of a lack of COBOL programmers able to implement the required changes at short notice.
Sunak made the right policy decision & was fortunate in that his predecessors & their civil servants had left him with a department that was capable of implementing that policy. It’s easy to praise the person at the top whilst overlooking the army of people who were actually responsible for doing the work. The civil service has taken a lot of knocks from this government, but here at least they appear to have worked hard & made things happen in response to government policy decisions; three cheers.
2) Does seem to have been a surprisingly high return decision. Certainly more than I would have predicted!
Here's something even more terrifying from the Emerson polling:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1300525358740131841
I rescind my wow.
Got a whiff of inevitability about it but might be a convention bump which evaporates (one can only hope).
A year ago, he had only just joined the Cabinet.
Five years ago, he had only just become an MP.
There's promoting talent, and there's build 'em up to knock 'em down. And the fact that he's the best bet if Boris gets knocked down by a bus tomorrow (Raab was broken by the Covid interregnum, Patel is blatantly not up to it, Gove is too strange) shows how shallow the talent pool is right now.
Joe Biden must speak not just for his supporters, but for the nation
https://thebulwark.com/speak-for-america/
Reading the press release, I see the following from Emerson:
"Biden leads with independents 50% to 42%. Trump has an 83% to 14% lead over Biden with Republicans while Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters."
Which is all a bit odd. Because Trump won independents handily last time around.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Emerson: 51 vs 49
USC Dorsife: 54 vs 40
RMG: 49 vs 45
HarrisX: 47 vs 38
You have a fairly wide range of polls today, with leads ranging from 2 to 14 points for Biden.
I’ve seen it in the context of Alzheimer’s vaccines. Let’s say that you have something that you know is safe and cheap. And it *may* prevent Alzheimer’s. Is it ethical to prescribe on a mass basis.
Given the drug approval is a balance of risk and reward then this is a case of low risk and potentially high reward. So - counterintuitively - it can be rational to prescribe something even if you don’t *know* if it works
I looked on RCP for new polls but none were shown.
Thanks again for the update.
It assumes Democrats not turning out as much and assumes that those Democrats that do turn out are more likely to vote for Trump than Republicans voting against Trump.
Neither assumption strikes me as solid.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300540144081084418/photo/1
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
John Major followed a similar succession route and was popular for a couple of years, including winning a general election.
https://twitter.com/joekennedy/status/1300543638716506112?s=20
I hate myself for that but we are where we are.
Why would they want to save something we want to abolish?
Many people would think it is madly brutal until they try it. Most GPs would actively recommend NOT to do what Taylor has found works - 800 cals a day. Rapid weight loss. Meals of shakes and soup. Fat stripped from liver, pancreas and other organs.
The GOP is down to representing a quarter of the population now not half of it. I won't find any names for that quarter.
So yes - worse place.
NEVERTHELESS, it is still interesting that the number of Registered Republicans has fallen from 40% of voters in 1988, to 28% today. While Dems have dropped much less.
and before that
John Major
If many rightwingers (even if from a British perspective) can't support the GOP is it a surprise that the GOP is thinning out its support.
Under Trump they're outright the party for white supremacists not the right wing.
Sweden.
The Dems have the Governorships of WI, PA and MI. The Republicans have FL, AZ and IA.
Make of that what you will.
And their budget deficit policies are absolutely atrocious as well. The US deficit was already eyewatering even pre-COVID. The forecasts for American interest payments in forthcoming decades are absolute insane, the USA is going to go bankrupt without serious change even before COVID hit.
They are pretty much the polar opposite to Cameroon Conservatives.
In many instances, I think a chunk of postal ballots have actually been counted first - hence substantial vote totals when only 1% of precincts have reported.
In past Presidential elections whilst it's true that vote totals have continued to rise in the days after the election, in most states they haven't risen that much - certainly nothing like by the numbers of postal ballots.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1300557880001794049?s=21
The Democrats meanwhile are mainly a combination of Cameroon Tories and LDs and Starmer Labour with some Bernie Sanders Corbynites on the fringe, pretty much the whole of UK politics would be within one wing of the Democratic Party or another with the exception of the most ardent Brexiteers like Farage, Francois and Rees Mogg who would still be behind Trump
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1300503693574500352?s=21