politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.

Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.

My grandfather served under Montgomery. Absolutely hated his guts. Compared him very unfavourably to Wavell.

Montgomery was slightly above average - and good with logistics - but no better than that. He was an egotist and a bit of a twat. He was, however, an absolute master of PR.

I haven't heard anyone say a bad word about Slim, who was much better. A superb general.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

guybrush said:

Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.

You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.

Having read it , it just confirms what I already knew, the Tories at the top are in league with the Russians and filling their boots, London is their laundry and now they are getting Titles brazenly , you could not make it up.

I'm not into daily poll hysteria. but most of the last 7 US polls are a bit lacklustre for Biden:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Let's hope the convention and well-received final speeches give a boost.

malcolmg said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

guybrush said:

Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.

You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.

Having read it , it just confirms what I already knew, the Tories at the top are in league with the Russians and filling their boots, London is their laundry and now they are getting Titles brazenly , you could not make it up.

A former PM will have a show on Russia Today - just you wait! (Someone beat them to it - Ed.)

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

Plus he highlighted the failure on the virus. That will resonate.

As a reminder, Luntz says the key voter group is moms with school age children.

So both Biden and Trump will spend the next two months chasing Milf?

Hasn't Trump boasted about his ability to, er, 'reach out' to that demographic?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.

Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.

Monty was an unadventurous General, preferring meticulous planning, logistics and staff work. His successful operations were all set pieces. Market Garden was a notable exception, partly because of poor intelligence on the whereabouts of the German panzer divisions, but also because the relief corridor for the land troops was too narrow and unsuited to tanks.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

guybrush said:

Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.

You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.

Scary to think there is kompromat on Johnson. I mean, what could they have on him that is so much worse than what we know already?

Can't wait for the debate...

https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1296548895187763203

Carnyx said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

nichomar said:

squareroot2 said:

nichomar said:

squareroot2 said:

Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.

If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.

So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.

Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.

Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.

Where do you live?

On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.

I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family

Welcome!

https://vimeo.com/291302624

If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!

Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.

Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

https://vimeo.com/381048297

Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.

There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.

And this which just shows how little the island has really changed sinced the 1970s - although Shanklin pier is no longer there.

https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8

I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.

Happy memories of a few trips there exploring the geology and the Palmerston forts/rocket test stands on West Wight.

The three Solent Palmerston's are currently up for sale for £9 million, if you are interested? I am sure they would take an offer.

The Palmerston defences taken together comprise, in real terms, the largest ever UK government spending project - although one wonders whether that oft-stated historical fact will stand after the pandemic.

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

guybrush said:

Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.

You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.

Having read it , it just confirms what I already knew, the Tories at the top are in league with the Russians and filling their boots, London is their laundry and now they are getting Titles brazenly , you could not make it up.

A former PM will have a show on Russia Today - just you wait! (Someone beat them to it - Ed.)

Why am I surprised that Tory CCHQ popup immediately with Lady Haw Haw trying to introduce a squirrel. Methinks thou dost protest too much

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.

Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.

My grandfather served under Montgomery. Absolutely hated his guts. Compared him very unfavourably to Wavell.

My grandfather died under him at Alamein.

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

Assuming that the virus doesn't mount a winter comeback.

If we don't require a second full lockdown, things should improve from hereon in, although Brexit in a few months isn't exactly going to help.

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.

Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.

My grandfather served under Montgomery. Absolutely hated his guts. Compared him very unfavourably to Wavell.

My grandfather died under him at Alamein.

It was at Alamein where my grandfather served under him for the first time. He was safe enough personally, but his brother was in a tank that got blown up. He was the only survivor, because he happened to be looking out of the turret at the time and could jump clear.

Reporting on the distressing putative poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg used the expression "implausible deniability" to characterise how Putin and the FSB operate. This pithy but scarily accurate phrase was new to me, though I see it employed in a 2018 paper in International Affairs "Grey is the new black: covert action and implausible deniability" by Rory Cormac andRichard J. Aldrich
https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/94/3/477/4992414

Off Topic -

News this morning that NYPD's Union, representing 24,000 police officers have endorsed the re-election of Donald Trump as President.
Can we expect a shock-horror thread on PB.com later today with the details and possible repercussions of this startling news? ... Thought not!

Scott_xP said:

Can't wait for the debate...

https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1296548895187763203

The sad thing for the US is the choice between Trump and Biden

Where is the inspirational leader the US needs to repair Trump's damage

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

nichomar said:

squareroot2 said:

nichomar said:

squareroot2 said:

Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.

If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.

So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.

Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.

Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.

Where do you live?

On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.

I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family

Welcome!

https://vimeo.com/291302624

If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!

Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.

Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

https://vimeo.com/381048297

Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.

There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.

And this which just shows how little the island has really changed sinced the 1970s - although Shanklin pier is no longer there.

https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8

I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.

Happy memories of a few trips there exploring the geology and the Palmerston forts/rocket test stands on West Wight.

The three Solent Palmerston's are currently up for sale for £9 million, if you are interested? I am sure they would take an offer.

The Palmerston defences taken together comprise, in real terms, the largest ever UK government spending project - although one wonders whether that oft-stated historical fact will stand after the pandemic.

A bit beyond my pocket!

Yes, I can well believe that especially if you are including the Plymouth and Chatham defences and the London outer ring (or did the latter come later?). I wonder a little how Palmerston forts compare (after inflation) with the postwar (Ton-class?) minesweeper construction programme - sometimes said to be the biggest naval construction project, Polaris included - but that was something I read about 10-20 years ago and may be out of date now.

I remember all sorts of surprises like the wire guided torpedo ramp at Fort Vic
toria and the hidden-away barracks at Golden Hill. Fortunately the tourist info at Yarmouth had lots of books for sale on the Palmerston forts and that was the start of some very enjoyable exploration.

One of the nice things BTW is being able to visit the Warrior on the Common Hard in Portsmouth - exactly that era too, of France-UK rivalry before the German Empire sorted the matter out.

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

guybrush said:

Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.

You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.

Having read it , it just confirms what I already knew, the Tories at the top are in league with the Russians and filling their boots, London is their laundry and now they are getting Titles brazenly , you could not make it up.

A former PM will have a show on Russia Today - just you wait! (Someone beat them to it - Ed.)

Why am I surprised that Tory CCHQ popup immediately with Lady Haw Haw trying to introduce a squirrel. Methinks thou dost protest too much

You pinched that last sentence from me when I used it to describe your goodself yesterday !!!!!!!

Malmesbury said:

MrEd said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

As CA AG, Harris was attacked for decisions by both left and right so there are examples that can be shown to portray her in an anti-law and order light. Every day Biden fails to condemn the riots, so the feeling will grow for many on the fence voters that, much as they do not like Trump. there is too much to risk from a Biden presidency in terms of the far left.

Yes. This is an Traditional Democrat ticket, not Antifa Democrat.

Having a number of moderate Republicans of note endorsing Biden at the Democratic convention is not a sign of a loony crazy-left* agenda.

*Crazy-left in US = slightly damp in the Conservative party in the UK

No, AOC etc are Corbyn Labour.

Wet Tories in the UK might back Biden in US terms but they would not be Antifa either

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Can't wait for the debate...

https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1296548895187763203

He reminds me of Grandpa Simpson wittering on jumping from thought to thought with no connection to what he was talking about.

Trump sounds perfectly coherent to me. He is ad libbing and joking. Certainly, there are other clips where he is all over the shop but this one just reminds us of Trump's charisma that won four years ago. It is a dangerous weakness of Trump's opponents that they will grasp at any straw.

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.

Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.

My grandfather served under Montgomery. Absolutely hated his guts. Compared him very unfavourably to Wavell.

My grandfather died under him at Alamein.

It was at Alamein where my grandfather served under him for the first time. He was safe enough personally, but his brother was in a tank that got blown up. He was the only survivor, because he happened to be looking out of the turret at the time and could jump clear.

My grandfather was killed by a British grenade thrown from behind him. My grandmother got a letter (which had her name wrong) where a blank had been typed in "accidently killed". I still have it. Brutal times.

Things that are weighing in our recovery -

1. the speed of the EU recovery seems to have slowed to a crawl.
2. The US recovery is all over the place and state/national lockdowns are really fucking everything up over there
3. The government needs to get serious about incoming travellers from red list countries and ban them from coming altogether, not an insufficiently policed quarantine.
4. How opening of schools will effect the R and if some parts of the economy will need to shut to accommodate schools reopening fully.

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic -

News this morning that NYPD's Union, representing 24,000 police officers have endorsed the re-election of Donald Trump as President.
Can we expect a shock-horror thread on PB.com later today with the details and possible repercussions of this startling news? ... Thought not!

Just how many votes do you think it will move?

Do you think New York is now in play for Trump?

If you want to write a thread on this news I'll be happy to consider it.

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

So we might get a V shaped recovery after all. Didn't expect it to be honest but the amount of public money that is being pumped into the system right now is unprecedented.

Is the unexpectedly high PMI a driving force behind the strengthening of the pound?

NerysHughes said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

So we might get a V shaped recovery after all. Didn't expect it to be honest but the amount of public money that is being pumped into the system right now is unprecedented.

You would never know this good news if you looked at the BBC website.

It's right there on the homepage.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53859148

Malmesbury said:

contrarian said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

Forcing everyone to stay in Britain over the summer was a masterstroke?

Plus how flexible businesses have been in embracing the internet and deliveries. The UK seems to have adjusted better to buying and selling over the internet than just about anywhere in the world. It's allowed smaller and local businesses to expand their customer base during lockdown rather than just wait for shoppers to come back to the high street.

Hands up Mr Max you pretty much got this bounceback with your forecasts. Its a big surprise to me, I must admit, albeit a nice one.

I wonder too if the commuting 'tax' of travel in and out of central London and related expenses has found its way into other parts of the economy.

I think that COVID19 and the response has accelerated a number of existing trends.

Home working was always there - the WFH mandate has simply smashed a glass ceiling on the practise.

As you say - a massive amount of money (and time) has been shifted back to workers, via WFH.

The big High Street companies were stuffed already. This has just been bought forward. The end game will be Mike Ashley owning a mega conglomerate of warehouses-on-the-highstreet, and a sprinkling of high end outfits.

There are many anecdotes I have heard about companies trimming fat in the workforce - some sensible. Such as rotating furlough to find out who is really essential.

Some stupid - furlough everyone and try and get the temps to run the business...

I will be very interested to see the productivity numbers.

Tbe cut in interest to zero might be another factor Mr Malmsbury, and the speculation it might go negative.

Personally I used the substantial amounts I saved from commuting plus money hanging around earning nothing to make some home improvements.

NerysHughes said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

So we might get a V shaped recovery after all. Didn't expect it to be honest but the amount of public money that is being pumped into the system right now is unprecedented.

You would never know this good news if you looked at the BBC website.

Doesn't make a good story, does it?

Malmesbury said:

contrarian said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

Forcing everyone to stay in Britain over the summer was a masterstroke?

Plus how flexible businesses have been in embracing the internet and deliveries. The UK seems to have adjusted better to buying and selling over the internet than just about anywhere in the world. It's allowed smaller and local businesses to expand their customer base during lockdown rather than just wait for shoppers to come back to the high street.

Hands up Mr Max you pretty much got this bounceback with your forecasts. Its a big surprise to me, I must admit, albeit a nice one.

I wonder too if the commuting 'tax' of travel in and out of central London and related expenses has found its way into other parts of the economy.

I think that COVID19 and the response has accelerated a number of existing trends.

Home working was always there - the WFH mandate has simply smashed a glass ceiling on the practise.

As you say - a massive amount of money (and time) has been shifted back to workers, via WFH.

The big High Street companies were stuffed already. This has just been bought forward. The end game will be Mike Ashley owning a mega conglomerate of warehouses-on-the-highstreet, and a sprinkling of high end outfits.

There are many anecdotes I have heard about companies trimming fat in the workforce - some sensible. Such as rotating furlough to find out who is really essential.

Some stupid - furlough everyone and try and get the temps to run the business...

I will be very interested to see the productivity numbers.

Given the swathes of the economy badly hit - travel, transport, personal services, hospitality, catering, etc. - there must also be many sectors experiencing significant booms.

Craftsmen are booked up weeks ahead and there is building work everywhere, and I'd guess the DIY sector is probably doing very well, as well as other home hobby businesses.

I wonder what else?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Can't wait for the debate...

https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1296548895187763203

The sad thing for the US is the choice between Trump and Biden

Where is the inspirational leader the US needs to repair Trump's damage

We saw this sort of false equivalency in 2016, but there's no way that Clinton would have done as much damage as Trump. So it is with Biden. Simply not making the situation any worse will be a vast improvement.

Also, that Trump was elected in the first place shows that he is, to some extent, a symptom of damage done by others over many years. The idea that one inspirational leader could undo that is a dangerous illusion. There's so much more to be done.

Obama was seen as an inspirational leader. While he was certainly more sinned against than sinner, part of a leader's legacy is who they're followed by. Clearly, Obama's inspirational leadership was not enough to prevent the US from turning to Trump. They'll need something more to repair the damage.

Another major factor is employment, there's a huge worry that as more people are let go in the coming months it will cause a slowdown. However, I'm not convinced. The job losses are majority in retail and hospitality, in terms of where to lose jobs, neither sector is very high yield. Part of why the 2008 crash was so bad is that it was middle income and high income people that found themselves out of work. People on lower incomes should find it easier to find an equivalent paying job elsewhere, maybe in a new or different sector (warehouse fulfilment rather than shelf stacking etc...) but we'll need to see how it plays out. From anecdotal reports, none of my friends have found themselves on the wrong side of a redundancy package yet so the jobs damage does seem to be limited to retail and hospitality so far.

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

MrEd said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

As CA AG, Harris was attacked for decisions by both left and right so there are examples that can be shown to portray her in an anti-law and order light. Every day Biden fails to condemn the riots, so the feeling will grow for many on the fence voters that, much as they do not like Trump. there is too much to risk from a Biden presidency in terms of the far left.

Yes. This is an Traditional Democrat ticket, not Antifa Democrat.

Having a number of moderate Republicans of note endorsing Biden at the Democratic convention is not a sign of a loony crazy-left* agenda.

*Crazy-left in US = slightly damp in the Conservative party in the UK

No, AOC etc are Corbyn Labour.

Wet Tories in the UK might back Biden in US terms but they would not be Antifa either

Hmmmm.....

In the UK - support for the NHS is universal, with the only question in the Conservative party being how much above inflation it gets.

In the US - advocating tax funded, free-at-the-point-of-use healthcare puts you firmly in the Bernie Bro section.

In the UK - a tax on the internet giants is going through under a Conservative Government

In the US - that's a Bernie position.

In the UK - We have massive investment in carbon emission reduction, under a Conservative government. Carbon tax, end of coal, planned end of ICE cars...

In the US - that's left of Biden, probably Bernie territory...

etc etc...

Morris_Dancer said:

Is the unexpectedly high PMI a driving force behind the strengthening of the pound?

FTSE100 has slipped below 6 000 again for the first time in a while.

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

MrEd said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

As CA AG, Harris was attacked for decisions by both left and right so there are examples that can be shown to portray her in an anti-law and order light. Every day Biden fails to condemn the riots, so the feeling will grow for many on the fence voters that, much as they do not like Trump. there is too much to risk from a Biden presidency in terms of the far left.

Yes. This is an Traditional Democrat ticket, not Antifa Democrat.

Having a number of moderate Republicans of note endorsing Biden at the Democratic convention is not a sign of a loony crazy-left* agenda.

*Crazy-left in US = slightly damp in the Conservative party in the UK

No, AOC etc are Corbyn Labour.

Wet Tories in the UK might back Biden in US terms but they would not be Antifa either

Hmmmm.....

In the UK - support for the NHS is universal, with the only question in the Conservative party being how much above inflation it gets.

In the US - advocating tax funded, free-at-the-point-of-use healthcare puts you firmly in the Bernie Bro section.

In the UK - a tax on the internet giants is going through under a Conservative Government

In the US - that's a Bernie position.

In the UK - We have massive investment in carbon emission reduction, under a Conservative government. Carbon tax, end of coal, planned end of ICE cars...

In the US - that's left of Biden, probably Bernie territory...

etc etc...

I thought the only question in the Tory party about the NHS was how much can we privatize it with nice contracts for our mates without people getting upset.

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

How desperate can these crooks get...............

Gove enlists old enemies to help save the Union
Talks held with rivals including George Galloway

Michael Gove has held private talks with senior figures from across the political spectrum - including George Galloway - in an attempt to find a way to save the Union in the face of rising support for independence.
Discussions have taken place with a wide range of notable names including Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale, the former Scottish Labour first minister, and Danny Alexander, the former Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury. George Galloway, the socialist firebrand who is planning to run for Holyrood, has also been sounded out.

Obviously Gove reads my PB posts....

certainly shares your extreme right wing views. He would be my first choice for the Maiden.

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

MrEd said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

As CA AG, Harris was attacked for decisions by both left and right so there are examples that can be shown to portray her in an anti-law and order light. Every day Biden fails to condemn the riots, so the feeling will grow for many on the fence voters that, much as they do not like Trump. there is too much to risk from a Biden presidency in terms of the far left.

Yes. This is an Traditional Democrat ticket, not Antifa Democrat.

Having a number of moderate Republicans of note endorsing Biden at the Democratic convention is not a sign of a loony crazy-left* agenda.

*Crazy-left in US = slightly damp in the Conservative party in the UK

No, AOC etc are Corbyn Labour.

Wet Tories in the UK might back Biden in US terms but they would not be Antifa either

Hmmmm.....

In the UK - support for the NHS is universal, with the only question in the Conservative party being how much above inflation it gets.

In the US - advocating tax funded, free-at-the-point-of-use healthcare puts you firmly in the Bernie Bro section.

In the UK - a tax on the internet giants is going through under a Conservative Government

In the US - that's a Bernie position.

In the UK - We have massive investment in carbon emission reduction, under a Conservative government. Carbon tax, end of coal, planned end of ICE cars...

In the US - that's left of Biden, probably Bernie territory...

etc etc...

Support for the NHS is not universal in the UK, rightwing Tories like Dan Hannan for example would prefer a more insurance based healthcare system.

Bush Snr raised taxes on the rich at a time Thatcher and Major still kept them low. In any case Trump dislikes Amazon anyway.

Obama and Biden may be pro climate change action, many backbench Tories are not especially if it means carbon taxes and costs on business, even Trump is pro some renewable energy.

Sanders was anti Iraq War, the Tories voted for the Iraq War, Sanders and to an extent Biden are anti Wall Street, the Tories are pro the City of London.

Trump backed Brexit like Boris, Biden and Sanders opposed Brexit.

The Tories take a tough approach to law and order, Sanders and AOC are suspicious of the police

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

How desperate can these crooks get...............

Gove enlists old enemies to help save the Union
Talks held with rivals including George Galloway

Michael Gove has held private talks with senior figures from across the political spectrum - including George Galloway - in an attempt to find a way to save the Union in the face of rising support for independence.
Discussions have taken place with a wide range of notable names including Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale, the former Scottish Labour first minister, and Danny Alexander, the former Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury. George Galloway, the socialist firebrand who is planning to run for Holyrood, has also been sounded out.

Obviously Gove reads my PB posts....

certainly shares your extreme right wing views. He would be my first choice for the Maiden.

Why? What do you have against Ukrainians?

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1296738932625940480

contrarian said:

NerysHughes said:

contrarian said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

Mega PMI figures today for the UK, composite of 60.3, August is going to be another strong month of growth. I think we may only actually see a 2-3% drop off in the economy be 5-6% I was expecting. There already seems to have been some significant displacement activity by UK business to grow new areas rather than sit and wait for the old ones to come back.

Forcing everyone to stay in Britain over the summer was a masterstroke?

Plus how flexible businesses have been in embracing the internet and deliveries. The UK seems to have adjusted better to buying and selling over the internet than just about anywhere in the world. It's allowed smaller and local businesses to expand their customer base during lockdown rather than just wait for shoppers to come back to the high street.

Hands up Mr Max you pretty much got this bounceback with your forecasts. Its a big surprise to me, I must admit, albeit a nice one.

I wonder too if the commuting 'tax' of travel in and out of central London and related expenses has found its way into other parts of the economy.

I have been saying for weeks on here that Construction in the South is booming.

could be the tip of the iceberg if the government does de-regulate planning permission to allow two storey add ons

Get your plumbers and sparkies in now. The price might only be going one way!

Construction (domestic) is only being held back by supply chain problems - literally not enough plasterboard at one stage. Otherwise it is all hands to the pumps. Wages are rising.

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Can't wait for the debate...

https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1296548895187763203

The sad thing for the US is the choice between Trump and Biden

Where is the inspirational leader the US needs to repair Trump's damage

We saw this sort of false equivalency in 2016, but there's no way that Clinton would have done as much damage as Trump. So it is with Biden. Simply not making the situation any worse will be a vast improvement.

Also, that Trump was elected in the first place shows that he is, to some extent, a symptom of damage done by others over many years. The idea that one inspirational leader could undo that is a dangerous illusion. There's so much more to be done.

Obama was seen as an inspirational leader. While he was certainly more sinned against than sinner, part of a leader's legacy is who they're followed by. Clearly, Obama's inspirational leadership was not enough to prevent the US from turning to Trump. They'll need something more to repair the damage.

Obama was useless, an empty suit devoid of policies and a nasty piece of work but much slyer than Trump..

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

How desperate can these crooks get...............

Gove enlists old enemies to help save the Union
Talks held with rivals including George Galloway

Michael Gove has held private talks with senior figures from across the political spectrum - including George Galloway - in an attempt to find a way to save the Union in the face of rising support for independence.
Discussions have taken place with a wide range of notable names including Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale, the former Scottish Labour first minister, and Danny Alexander, the former Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury. George Galloway, the socialist firebrand who is planning to run for Holyrood, has also been sounded out.

Obviously Gove reads my PB posts....

Or possibly, he's just an idiot. 🤔

No, he knows to beat the SNP divided Unionists fall, united Unionists win, certainly at the Holyrood constituency level

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1296739313460355072

No cherry picking is, and always has been, an incredibly stupid phrase. If there was never any possibility of cherry picking there would have been no point in any negotiations happening at all, at any phase.

There absolutely can be cherry picking because that's what negotiation entails, and I wish everyone would stop acting like we're all so stupid as to not know that. We cherry pick, the EU cherry pick, everyone has exceptions they ask for, or makes allowances on one thing and then not another. What is the case is that people will be wildly unrealistic in how many cherries they ask for.

RobD said:

nichomar said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

MrEd said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

It’s deplorables alll over again

It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.

Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.

As CA AG, Harris was attacked for decisions by both left and right so there are examples that can be shown to portray her in an anti-law and order light. Every day Biden fails to condemn the riots, so the feeling will grow for many on the fence voters that, much as they do not like Trump. there is too much to risk from a Biden presidency in terms of the far left.

Yes. This is an Traditional Democrat ticket, not Antifa Democrat.

Having a number of moderate Republicans of note endorsing Biden at the Democratic convention is not a sign of a loony crazy-left* agenda.

*Crazy-left in US = slightly damp in the Conservative party in the UK

No, AOC etc are Corbyn Labour.

Wet Tories in the UK might back Biden in US terms but they would not be Antifa either

Hmmmm.....

In the UK - support for the NHS is universal, with the only question in the Conservative party being how much above inflation it gets.

In the US - advocating tax funded, free-at-the-point-of-use healthcare puts you firmly in the Bernie Bro section.

In the UK - a tax on the internet giants is going through under a Conservative Government

In the US - that's a Bernie position.

In the UK - We have massive investment in carbon emission reduction, under a Conservative government. Carbon tax, end of coal, planned end of ICE cars...

In the US - that's left of Biden, probably Bernie territory...

etc etc...

I thought the only question in the Tory party about the NHS was how much can we privatize it with nice contracts for our mates without people getting upset.

Didn't Labour start the process of privitisation in the NHS?

Privatization in itself is not necessarily bad, if it’s openly tendered for and proactively managed by the relevant authority. Piecemeal fragmentation is not good with gaps appearing and conflicting objectives. My health service out here is end to end privatized from the local doctors clinic, through the first level centers which provide non critical services through to the hospital which is a teaching hospital, Microsoft partner and well regarded. Most people aren’t even aware it’s privately run. Unfortunately the Valencian health minister is going to bring it back under direct control for ideological reasons, will see how that turns out.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1296739313460355072

Brexit coupled to Covid has definitely put a stop to cherry picking.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/seasonal-harvest-workers-during-covid-19/

MaxPB said:

I have to give credit where it's due on 5he economy. The government has got basically every step correct on the unlocking. They've managed to balance economic need with keeping the virus under control extremely well. I don't know who gets the credit but they've done a very, very good job under tough circumstances. So much that the predictions of mega cuts and tax rises may just end up being predictions and we live with an extra £250bn in debt rather than destroy the economy to pay it off. We may end up in a situation with the 2021 deficit looking very similar to the 2019 deficit with 2020 just a one off hit.

Surely we need to wait until next summer to assess the damage? What happens when furlough ends? How will people behave in the autumn and winter?

DavidL said:

They certainly established that the most fundamental purpose of the NHS is to make doctors rich. Stuff their mouths with gold was the approach in the 1940s and ever since.

What's wrong with making NHS doctors rich?

I speak from a position of pure impartiality on this.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1296739313460355072

What the feck is "maintaining access to UK fishing waters" if not "Cherry Picking"?