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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

Paddy Power are offering 1/7 on Gavin Williamson not resigning/sacked by the end of this Sunday. So a 14% return in just over 65 hours seems very generous to me. pic.twitter.com/gVpUC30klI
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https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/after-sean-hannity-presses-him-monitor-polling-places-trump-says-he-will-send-law
SEAN HANNITY (HOST): My question to you then is, are you going to have poll watchers? Are you going to have an ability to monitor, to avoid fraud and cross-check whether or not these are registered voters? Whether or not there has been identification to know that it's a real vote from a real American?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: We're going to have everything. We're going to have sheriffs and we're going to have law enforcement and we're going to have hopefully U.S. Attorneys. And we're going to have everybody and attorney generals. But it's very hard.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/19/calfire-orders-evacuations-east-of-san-jose-city-limits/
Absent a complete picture it's all just so much flapping.
Italy appears to think its mini-blip (new cases have perked up but still at low levels) is due to younger travellers bringing it back from high risk venues in Spain, Croatia and the like on summer holidays, rather than anything happening within Italy itself.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1296457621587800064?s=20
The virus itself doesn’t know which country it is in; modes of transmission are the same wherever you are.
If there is a moral, it should be to restrict activities with the highest risk of transmission - which may indeed include flying. Crossing international borders is in itself of no risk whatsoever now that the virus has seeded itself in every country in the world.
Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
But that isn’t the story now. What matters is how people behave, not where they are.
https://vimeo.com/291302624
If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
While the UK was slow off the mark on this, total testing is now up at 223 per 1,000 population in total and remains high each day. In contrast, France has only tested 91 per 1,000. Croatia, newly added to the quarantine list with infection rates growing quickly, is down at 35 per 1,000. (Source: Worldometers). Both of those have much higher positive test rates per 100,000 than us with much less testing going on.
Based on ONS and tier 2 testing data, the UK seems to have done well so far at avoiding big increases in general infection rates, and hopefully we can manage local outbreaks with the minimum interference necessary. But we shouldn't put that at risk to help a minority have a summer holiday. If you go abroad, you need to accept the risk of a 2 week quarantine and live with it.
The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/
It’s deplorables alll over again
https://vimeo.com/381048297
Just a few minutes ago we recorded wind at 79 mph.
I think independents will agree that "character is on the ballot". Will there be enough who agree in those key ECV counties?
The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.
And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.
One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.
He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
I go there several times a year with my wife.
The best line of the week was Trumps. If all was well in 2016, I wouldn’t be here now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8
Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.
If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.
I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.
*Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8
I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.
LOL @ learning to fly in four weeks.
And the buses are rather more expensive nowadays.
As a reminder, Luntz says the key voter group is moms with school age children.
I think the England coastal path authority is looking into improvements though.
Flight prices rocket from three new quarantine nations...