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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,560
edited August 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

Paddy Power are offering 1/7 on Gavin Williamson not resigning/sacked by the end of this Sunday. So a 14% return in just over 65 hours seems very generous to me. pic.twitter.com/gVpUC30klI

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2020
    Good betting tip. For the reasons TSE gives I'd put the likelihood at 1/70 not 1/7.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,564
    Sounds about right.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,060
    After Sean Hannity presses him to monitor polling places, Trump says he will send law enforcement
    https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/after-sean-hannity-presses-him-monitor-polling-places-trump-says-he-will-send-law
    SEAN HANNITY (HOST): My question to you then is, are you going to have poll watchers? Are you going to have an ability to monitor, to avoid fraud and cross-check whether or not these are registered voters? Whether or not there has been identification to know that it's a real vote from a real American?

    PRESIDENT TRUMP: We're going to have everything. We're going to have sheriffs and we're going to have law enforcement and we're going to have hopefully U.S. Attorneys. And we're going to have everybody and attorney generals. But it's very hard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,060
    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Seems to be following the pattern of the recent outbreaks in US southern states, with the average age of those infected being markedly lower than in the early pandemic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,060
    Bay Area fires are up to the San Jose city limits:
    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/19/calfire-orders-evacuations-east-of-san-jose-city-limits/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited August 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Seems to be following the pattern of the recent outbreaks in US southern states, with the average age of those infected being markedly lower than in the early pandemic.
    Average age of those infected AND tested.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Sadly these kinds of reports seem to be coming out all the time at the moment, but they do not give us any wider context. We're seldom told what proportion of the cases found are completely asymptomatic, whether the rise in cases represents change in the general population or whether it's just the result of peculiar clusters, if we're seeing a higher case load because it actually exists or because more testing is taking place, and to what extent (if at all) the numbers of Covid patients in hospitals are rising again.

    Absent a complete picture it's all just so much flapping.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I can’t find the data for how many covid cases have been imported from the quarantine countries, it must exist otherwise how does the government make these sweeping decisions. It can’t be just on the number of cases in a country as that may not reflect the holiday resorts but I can’t find these data.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    However some of the “measures” taken to combat the rises I think can be rightly criticised after the derision that some of these countries directed at the U.K. earlier in the crisis. I read that Croatia, for example, are “extending their ban on nightclubs opening after midnight”! Wow! Big deal!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    Nigelb said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Seems to be following the pattern of the recent outbreaks in US southern states, with the average age of those infected being markedly lower than in the early pandemic.
    Portugal appears to have overcome whatever is fuelling it, and their new case rates have subsided significantly, with Portugal just dropped off the quarantine list. Maybe others should be doing whatever they were doing.

    Italy appears to think its mini-blip (new cases have perked up but still at low levels) is due to younger travellers bringing it back from high risk venues in Spain, Croatia and the like on summer holidays, rather than anything happening within Italy itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    nichomar said:

    I can’t find the data for how many covid cases have been imported from the quarantine countries, it must exist otherwise how does the government make these sweeping decisions. It can’t be just on the number of cases in a country as that may not reflect the holiday resorts but I can’t find these data.

    AIUI they are making judgments largely on the basis of declared new case infection rates for countries taken as a whole. Blunt instrument doesn’t begin to describe it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,088
    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Quite an annoying piece because the percentage increases are relatively meaningless unless you know the number being multiplied. I also couldn't tell where a lot of countries were from the map and of course no information at all about what, if anything, had changed in their testing regimes as has happened in the UK.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,189
    Morning all! Good news about Portugal;fancy a week or so on the Algarve. Not quite so sure I fancy three hours cooped up, and masked, in a plane to get there, though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,987
    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    Thankfully I didn't have my heart set on a visit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    I can’t find the data for how many covid cases have been imported from the quarantine countries, it must exist otherwise how does the government make these sweeping decisions. It can’t be just on the number of cases in a country as that may not reflect the holiday resorts but I can’t find these data.

    AIUI they are making judgments largely on the basis of declared new case infection rates for countries taken as a whole. Blunt instrument doesn’t begin to describe it.
    They decide by chucking darts at a map of the world. Red Fletching for end of quarantine, blue for imposition. It makes it all so much easier.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    Argentina has really accelerated and is likely to overtake us in terms of number of cases today. It is curious that the Americas are so badly affected by this, nearly all the South American countries, Mexico and of course the US. When Argentina overtakes us the Americas will have 7 of the top 12.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,236
    I know PB loves a Cadwalladr.

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1296457621587800064?s=20
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,088
    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Apparently the government has lots of data that tells them that it’s safe to go back to work in the office, well they wouldn’t suggest it was safe without it, are these data kept with that of returning holiday makers data concerning infections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    OldKingCole said:

    Morning all! Good news about Portugal;fancy a week or so on the Algarve. Not quite so sure I fancy three hours cooped up, and masked, in a plane to get there, though.

    The early morning Eurostar will get you to Paris for elevenses, and the French/Spanish border by teatime. From there the overnight sleeper will get you to Lisbon in time for breakfast the next day.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2020
    DavidL said:

    Argentina has really accelerated and is likely to overtake us in terms of number of cases today. It is curious that the Americas are so badly affected by this, nearly all the South American countries, Mexico and of course the US. When Argentina overtakes us the Americas will have 7 of the top 12.

    Fatties. Mexico has just ousted the US from number 1 for obesity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    Unless you are leaving a country with reports of spikes in cases!

    The virus itself doesn’t know which country it is in; modes of transmission are the same wherever you are.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,088
    IanB2 said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    Unless you are leaving a country with reports of spikes in cases!

    The virus itself doesn’t know which country it is in; modes of transmission are the same wherever you are.
    Moral.. stay home, don't go there in the first place....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,088
    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    if if if......people are not obeying the rules.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Argentina has really accelerated and is likely to overtake us in terms of number of cases today. It is curious that the Americas are so badly affected by this, nearly all the South American countries, Mexico and of course the US. When Argentina overtakes us the Americas will have 7 of the top 12.

    Fatties. Mexico has just ousted the US from number 1 for obesity.
    How does that connect with case rates? Obesity is a risk if you get the virus, but not a risk for getting it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Argentina has really accelerated and is likely to overtake us in terms of number of cases today. It is curious that the Americas are so badly affected by this, nearly all the South American countries, Mexico and of course the US. When Argentina overtakes us the Americas will have 7 of the top 12.

    Fatties. Mexico has just ousted the US from number 1 for obesity.
    That affects deaths, and they have had plenty of them, but it really shouldn't affect the number of cases.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    squareroot2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    Unless you are leaving a country with reports of spikes in cases!

    The virus itself doesn’t know which country it is in; modes of transmission are the same wherever you are.
    Moral.. stay home, don't go there in the first place....
    Another lockdown at home would be even more damaging.

    If there is a moral, it should be to restrict activities with the highest risk of transmission - which may indeed include flying. Crossing international borders is in itself of no risk whatsoever now that the virus has seeded itself in every country in the world.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,920
    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    if if if......people are not obeying the rules.
    I do and the few I mix with do as well but you are right that lots of people aren’t obeying the rules for whatever reason, mostly selfish in my opinion. Life and the economy could both prosper within the established frameworks, yes certain sectors will go to the wall, nightclubs, theaters etc but will reinvent themselves when this is all over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    Austria seems an odd one to have added to the quarantine list. New case numbers are still running at pretty low levels.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    edited August 2020
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I am sure he will get a good clap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    The more we travel the more the virus will spread. The Black Death spread across Europe at the surprisingly fast rate of 1 mile a day on average. Now, with a thankfully much less vicious infection, it can travel thousands of miles in a day. The UK government's attitude to international travel has been bewildering throughout and remains completely incoherent.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    We have enough Spanish disrupters to make up for any foreign ones but are lucky that we don’t have discos although containing the enthusiasm of the youngsters seems to be hard work. The beaches are shut at 9pm, drinking alcohol in the street is outlawed illegal gatherings are broken up and fines issued but then there are far more law enforcement officers here than in the UK so it is possible to actually try and enforce rules. It’s a worrying time though as infections rise and I wouldn’t travel but it would be nice to see the data on which these quarantine and other decisions are made.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    The more we travel the more the virus will spread. The Black Death spread across Europe at the surprisingly fast rate of 1 mile a day on average. Now, with a thankfully much less vicious infection, it can travel thousands of miles in a day. The UK government's attitude to international travel has been bewildering throughout and remains completely incoherent.
    That bit of the story is already done, and the virus is everywhere. The attitude to travel back when we had no infection was bizarre - marching those cruise ship passengers off to enforced quarantine accompanied by security guards in hazmat suits, then waving incomers through our airports from all over with no checks or restrictions whatsoever.

    But that isn’t the story now. What matters is how people behave, not where they are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Black_Rook said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Sadly these kinds of reports seem to be coming out all the time at the moment, but they do not give us any wider context. We're seldom told what proportion of the cases found are completely asymptomatic, whether the rise in cases represents change in the general population or whether it's just the result of peculiar clusters, if we're seeing a higher case load because it actually exists or because more testing is taking place, and to what extent (if at all) the numbers of Covid patients in hospitals are rising again.

    Absent a complete picture it's all just so much flapping.
    Positive case figures are irrelevant, hospital admissions are the most important stat now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    The more we travel the more the virus will spread. The Black Death spread across Europe at the surprisingly fast rate of 1 mile a day on average. Now, with a thankfully much less vicious infection, it can travel thousands of miles in a day. The UK government's attitude to international travel has been bewildering throughout and remains completely incoherent.
    That bit of the story is already done, and the virus is everywhere. The attitude to travel back when we had no infection was bizarre - marching those cruise ship passengers off to enforced quarantine accompanied by security guards in hazmat suits, then waving incomers through our airports from all over with no checks or restrictions whatsoever.

    But that isn’t the story now. What matters is how people behave, not where they are.
    It's not done because the virus has not gone away. It continues to infect new cases and we need to adjust our behaviour sufficiently to hold that in check. Travel is an important part of that. Those xenophobic feelings you describe are indicative of the recognition of the same obvious risk throughout history.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    edited August 2020
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,183
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1296702606836994049
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    NerysHughes said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Sadly these kinds of reports seem to be coming out all the time at the moment, but they do not give us any wider context. We're seldom told what proportion of the cases found are completely asymptomatic, whether the rise in cases represents change in the general population or whether it's just the result of peculiar clusters, if we're seeing a higher case load because it actually exists or because more testing is taking place, and to what extent (if at all) the numbers of Covid patients in hospitals are rising again.

    Absent a complete picture it's all just so much flapping.
    Positive case figures are irrelevant, hospital admissions are the most important stat now.
    And transfer to ICU indicating the seriousness of the infection and potential strain on the health service.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Not too keen on crowds, but may try to book a table at one or two favourites. Mostly seeing family though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    Isle of Wight?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    I'm going with my family over the bank holiday weekend.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,388
    A point to consider when comparing current cases between countries is the amount of testing varies massively.

    While the UK was slow off the mark on this, total testing is now up at 223 per 1,000 population in total and remains high each day. In contrast, France has only tested 91 per 1,000. Croatia, newly added to the quarantine list with infection rates growing quickly, is down at 35 per 1,000. (Source: Worldometers). Both of those have much higher positive test rates per 100,000 than us with much less testing going on.

    Based on ONS and tier 2 testing data, the UK seems to have done well so far at avoiding big increases in general infection rates, and hopefully we can manage local outbreaks with the minimum interference necessary. But we shouldn't put that at risk to help a minority have a summer holiday. If you go abroad, you need to accept the risk of a 2 week quarantine and live with it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 262
    Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited August 2020
    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,134
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.
    Really? I hope not. Its failure is too Grave a matter to come up with any awesome puns about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    Must say I found this "end the darkness" crap pretty unmoving and uninspiring.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    edited August 2020
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297

    Just a few minutes ago we recorded wind at 79 mph.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,134
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,680
    edited August 2020
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    Must say I found this "end the darkness" crap pretty unmoving and uninspiring.
    "May God protect our troops" right at the end was a nice twist of the knife though.

    I think independents will agree that "character is on the ballot". Will there be enough who agree in those key ECV counties?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

    The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

    And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

    One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

    He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,183
    https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1296708902315327489
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    The Isle of Wight is stunning and a remarkable haven of peace.

    I go there several times a year with my wife.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.
    Really? I hope not. Its failure is too Grave a matter to come up with any awesome puns about it.
    True, any such attempt is sure to overshoot the mark.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297

    Just a few minutes ago we recorded wind at 79 mph.
    So is there going to be uninterrupted play in Southampton today? That sound ominous. It would be a real shame if the last test of the summer was ruined like the previous one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

    The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

    And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

    One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

    He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
    I don’t think holier than thou merchants connect with and attract switchers.

    The best line of the week was Trumps. If all was well in 2016, I wouldn’t be here now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

    Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

    If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,134
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.
    Really? I hope not. Its failure is too Grave a matter to come up with any awesome puns about it.
    True, any such attempt is sure to overshoot the mark.
    No need to make a son and dance about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,773
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    Must say I found this "end the darkness" crap pretty unmoving and uninspiring.
    "May God protect our troops" right at the end was a nice twist of the knife though.

    I think independents will agree that "character is on the ballot". Will there be enough who agree in those key ECV counties?
    Trump is a morally repulsive individual who has acted stupidly in a lot of ways but I don't think that he can be charged with being a warmonger. Militarily, the last 4 years have been much quieter than any time since 9/11.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    Yes, lots of great coastal and downland walks, I will be out with my pooch.

    I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.

    *Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    Yes, lots of great coastal and downland walks, I will be out with my pooch.

    I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.

    *Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
    They live in my garden, and there are lots of baby lizards running about the place at the moment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

    The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

    And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

    One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

    He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
    Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

    The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

    And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

    One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

    He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
    I don’t think holier than thou merchants connect with and attract switchers.

    The best line of the week was Trumps. If all was well in 2016, I wouldn’t be here now.
    I agree, and you've always been a member of the Labour Party who has good instincts for what plays well with the voters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,036
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    Yes, lots of great coastal and downland walks, I will be out with my pooch.

    I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.

    *Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
    They live in my garden, and there are lots of baby lizards running about the place at the moment.
    You live near the Undercliff?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

    Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

    If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.
    And this which just shows how little the island has really changed sinced the 1970s - although Shanklin pier is no longer there.

    https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8

    I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    edited August 2020
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    Yes, lots of great coastal and downland walks, I will be out with my pooch.

    I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.

    *Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
    They live in my garden, and there are lots of baby lizards running about the place at the moment.
    You live near the Undercliff?
    Technically, right on it. Which structually can be a mixed blessing, being the largest urban landslide complex in NW Europe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,680
    DavidL said:

    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    Must say I found this "end the darkness" crap pretty unmoving and uninspiring.
    "May God protect our troops" right at the end was a nice twist of the knife though.

    I think independents will agree that "character is on the ballot". Will there be enough who agree in those key ECV counties?
    Trump is a morally repulsive individual who has acted stupidly in a lot of ways but I don't think that he can be charged with being a warmonger. Militarily, the last 4 years have been much quieter than any time since 9/11.
    It's a digging at the bounties on US troops. All the veterans will spot this.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,564
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.



    And mightily bored we will be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    edited August 2020
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

    Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

    If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.
    And this which just shows how little the island has really changed sinced the 1970s - although Shanklin pier is no longer there.

    https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8

    I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.
    Yes, it's a shame the path can't run through Queen Victoria's garden and along her private beach.

    LOL @ learning to fly in four weeks.

    And the buses are rather more expensive nowadays.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,680
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    It isn't because he hasn't directly insulted the voters.

    The Democratic convention is about inspiring his base. He needs to get far more appealing messages to independents out thereafter though for the general.

    And he absolutely must avoid falling into the elephant trap of the culture wars.

    One way he could do this would be to give a law and order speech and commit to reform whilst condemning all violence. Particularly the nonsense in Portland.

    He could also make an inspiring speech about the founding fathers, their real vision and US history etc. to defend himself against being unpatriotic.
    Even the Republicans think Harris tough on Law and Order. This is not a far left Dem ticket, and Americans are not dumb enough to think it is. It is heartland stuff, and the bringing America together again patriotic schtik is very credible from Biden. America needs that.
    Plus he highlighted the failure on the virus. That will resonate.

    As a reminder, Luntz says the key voter group is moms with school age children.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    Yes, lots of great coastal and downland walks, I will be out with my pooch.

    I always have my summer holiday there. It gets a bit quiet in the off season, but have been on the beach in a T shirt on New Years Day, there are lots of good microclimates*, as well as rather gusty winter storms.

    *Mediterranean Wall lizards live and breed in the grounds of Ventnor botanic gardens for example.
    They live in my garden, and there are lots of baby lizards running about the place at the moment.
    You live near the Undercliff?
    Technically, right on it. Which structually can be a mixed blessing, being the largest urban landslide complex in NW Europe.
    Bonchurch, Ventnor proper or St. Lawrence ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    edited August 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    nichomar said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Whatever the reason for the spike in cases, people need to take responsibility themselves. Travel is a no no at present./

    Yes travel to Birmingham is looking dodgy at the moment.
    If you go on public transport you are taking a risk, if you fly, the risk is much greater, if you go to a Country will reports of spikes in cases , you are taking a massive chance.
    So I’m taking a massive chance living in Spain where my town has a lower infection rate than the UK. If I obey the rules the chances are low, if everybody else obeys the rules the chances are negligible.
    Clearly you're not but the risks for everyone in your locale would be significantly increased if you had foreign disruptors present in any large numbers, socialising, drinking and indulging in the way that we all do when on holiday.

    Personally I really struggle to understand why people think that holidays in a different country are a good idea in a pandemic. Its just stupid and risks both countries, It would be great if the "I've got a right to step onto a plane to go wherever I want" mentality was a victim of the pandemic but it seems persistent.
    Where I live we are now awash with the same ‘disrupters’ filling the beach, pubs and restaurants, eating, drinking and the rest. Follow your logic and they should all be sent back home.

    We know that it’s human nature to become insular and suspicious of and hostile to ‘strangers’ during a crisis like this - indeed some historians pin the origins of xenophobia on the long history of human epidemics. But it’s a sentiment better resisted.
    Where do you live?
    On paradise island. Or at least it would be, were it not for all the British holidaymakers.
    I am coming for a week on Sunday, to see grandma on her birthday and a few of the other family
    Welcome!

    https://vimeo.com/291302624

    If you plan to eat out Monday to Wednesday, be sure to book well ahead!
    Thats a great little video. Curious omission of the Vintage Bus Museum, but always have to leave them wanting more!

    The Weather forecast is looking good, far better to holiday in this country this year.
    Yes, he's a great local video maker. There's another one here; the voiceover doesn't really work but the photography is spectacular

    https://vimeo.com/381048297
    Those are amazing videos. I didn’t realise the Isle of Wight was so beautiful. They’re seriously tempting me to come over on holiday in the New Year.
    There's always this as an alternative take on the same theme:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeX11hXkUo8

    Yes, it can be stunning in the right weather, and dramatic in the wrong weather.

    If you are into walking, the best book is the Cicerone walking guide, which has both the popular walks and ones that will take you to spots even most islanders don't know.
    And this which just shows how little the island has really changed sinced the 1970s - although Shanklin pier is no longer there.

    https://youtu.be/XZqxTor1oL8

    I walked the isle of wight coastal path this year, which was fantastic. Only disappointing stretch was from Ryde to Cowes which was too urban and wasn't really coastal enough.
    Yes, it's a shame the path can't run through Queen Victoria's garden and along her private beach.

    LOL @ learning to fly in four weeks.

    And the buses are rather more expensive nowadays.
    Indeed. The National Trust should grant a right of way.

    I think the England coastal path authority is looking into improvements though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,134
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.



    And mightily bored we will be.
    That comment is a load of B’Horrocks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,745
    Nigelb said:

    After Sean Hannity presses him to monitor polling places, Trump says he will send law enforcement
    https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/after-sean-hannity-presses-him-monitor-polling-places-trump-says-he-will-send-law
    SEAN HANNITY (HOST): My question to you then is, are you going to have poll watchers? Are you going to have an ability to monitor, to avoid fraud and cross-check whether or not these are registered voters? Whether or not there has been identification to know that it's a real vote from a real American?

    PRESIDENT TRUMP: We're going to have everything. We're going to have sheriffs and we're going to have law enforcement and we're going to have hopefully U.S. Attorneys. And we're going to have everybody and attorney generals. But it's very hard.

    I am sure the NRA and even the Ku Klux Klan would be eager to help out as armedparmed station guards.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,293
    Half decent economic data this morning, retail up 3% YoY and borrowing coming in much lower than expected YTD vs the original OBR estimates. I think the pandemic total cost could be under £200bn in the end and it is looking more and more like a one off hit than something we're going to be dealing with for the next 5 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    I see our national debt has now risen to the same as the valuation of Apple.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,293
    IanB2 said:

    I see our national debt has now risen to the same as the valuation of Apple.

    Much more, £2tn vs $2tn!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,745
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    After Sean Hannity presses him to monitor polling places, Trump says he will send law enforcement
    https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/after-sean-hannity-presses-him-monitor-polling-places-trump-says-he-will-send-law
    SEAN HANNITY (HOST): My question to you then is, are you going to have poll watchers? Are you going to have an ability to monitor, to avoid fraud and cross-check whether or not these are registered voters? Whether or not there has been identification to know that it's a real vote from a real American?

    PRESIDENT TRUMP: We're going to have everything. We're going to have sheriffs and we're going to have law enforcement and we're going to have hopefully U.S. Attorneys. And we're going to have everybody and attorney generals. But it's very hard.

    I am sure the NRA and even the Ku Klux Klan would be eager to help out as armedparmed station guards.
    armed polling station guards.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I fear Biden and the Dems have made a misstep this week. They are in a bubble of their self righteousness and are not going to connect with voters they need to switch.

    It’s deplorables alll over again

    Must say I found this "end the darkness" crap pretty unmoving and uninspiring.
    "May God protect our troops" right at the end was a nice twist of the knife though.

    I think independents will agree that "character is on the ballot". Will there be enough who agree in those key ECV counties?
    Trump is a morally repulsive individual who has acted stupidly in a lot of ways but I don't think that he can be charged with being a warmonger. Militarily, the last 4 years have been much quieter than any time since 9/11.
    Apart from POTUS turning a blind eye to the Russians putting bounties on the heads of American soldiers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,661
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.
    Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see our national debt has now risen to the same as the valuation of Apple.

    Much more, £2tn vs $2tn!
    Yes, I forgot the £ is still worth a little more than the $
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,293
    edited August 2020
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see our national debt has now risen to the same as the valuation of Apple.

    Much more, £2tn vs $2tn!
    Yes, I forgot the £ is still worth a little more than the $
    1.32x as much, in fact.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,134
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Only a little over three hours left until we get to hear TSE’s view of sealion....

    I thought he was going to critique Operation Market Garden, continuing the paratroop theme.
    Well I did think about comparing Williamson to Monty but Monty did have the occasional success.
    My grandfather served under Montgomery. Absolutely hated his guts. Compared him very unfavourably to Wavell.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,480
    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

    Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,564
    malcolmg said:

    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

    Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.
    You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,480
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    malcolmg said:

    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on Lord Levedev. Doesn't look good, does it?
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/20/sweeney-investigates-what-changed-to-make-evgeny-lebedev-no-longer-a-security-risk/

    Without even reading it you know it was large donations to the Tories that fixed it.
    You need to read it. There is also the suggestion that Dominic Cummings might have snow on his boots and that the KGB might have kompromat on Boris Johnson. Boris is of course the first Prime Minister to have been linked with the KGB since Harold Wilson David Cameron.
    I will do , I had thought it was the Times and paywall, need to pay more attention.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    NerysHughes said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Meanwhile cases in Europe are escalating:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437

    Sadly these kinds of reports seem to be coming out all the time at the moment, but they do not give us any wider context. We're seldom told what proportion of the cases found are completely asymptomatic, whether the rise in cases represents change in the general population or whether it's just the result of peculiar clusters, if we're seeing a higher case load because it actually exists or because more testing is taking place, and to what extent (if at all) the numbers of Covid patients in hospitals are rising again.

    Absent a complete picture it's all just so much flapping.
    Positive case figures are irrelevant, hospital admissions are the most important stat now.
    And both they and deaths are rising in Spain although you ignore it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see our national debt has now risen to the same as the valuation of Apple.

    Much more, £2tn vs $2tn!
    Yes, I forgot the £ is still worth a little more than the $
    1.32x as much, in fact.
    And probably a good medium term bet on the upside
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,064
    Maybe all this silly chopping and changing on quarantine is the government's cunning plan to help the airline industry?

    Flight prices rocket from three new quarantine nations...
This discussion has been closed.