politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wedged: the looming problem for Boris Johnson

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

Why are people like you booking and actually going on holiday during a global pandemic?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

Why are people like you booking and actually going on holiday during a global pandemic?

Lots of people go on holiday in August.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/afsanalachaux/status/1295698253917364225

Intriguing case. If a British and French national settle in the UAE and are in and living in the UAE at the time, then my initial thought would be UAE law applying makes sense however much we may disagree with it. Open to persuasion.

Reverse it and if there were a Pakistani and Indonesian Muslim couple in the UK getting divorced, I would strongly think UK law should apply.

LadyG said:

contrarian said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.

Ireland looks as if it has problems

And meanwhile, the UK seven day average for cases confirmed by test appears to be levelling off, and the total number of Covid patients left in hospital is now just under 900 and has resumed its trend downwards.

We can't be that different to Ireland - can we? Goodness knows what's going on.

I think it is young people who may be an issue with covid compliance in most of the recent problems

They are out here but so are family and friends gatherings.

Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

It might not go on for ever.

Just did a walk around leafy north London: Hampstead, Belsize, Primrose Hill.

A pleasant soft summer evening, and all the restaurants are absolutely RAMMED with people, young and old, enjoying the Eat Out to Help Out. Several places had long queues.

I did my bit last night with my new girlfriend. Ate her out. Everyone has to help.

I have barely left my home except for exercise, partly because I want to be able to get through this without wearing a mask.

On the other hand, I have spent a great deal of money on redecorating our home, handing over big sums to plasterers, painters, flooring people, landscapers and shutter installers.

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefitted our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1295817072073674754

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefitted our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

Compared to the suggestion of helicopter money that the rumour mill had put out before this began the scheme sounded a bit mild and a bit gimmicky in comparison. But its definitely working on a sector that needed it, is targeted and I expect it has a major multiplier effect.

Very well done Rishi.

On the subject of court cases...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/18/court-overturns-mans-conviction-for-girlfriends-bestival-drug-death-louella-fletcher-michie-ceon-broughton

As bad as I felt for the family of PC Andrew Harper, I think trial by jury should be respected. Ceon Broughton was found guilty by a jury and that should have been the end of it.

LadyG said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

Why are people like you booking and actually going on holiday during a global pandemic?

Because life must go on, Sunil. Otherwise the world will collapse. I factor in a modicum of risk.

Also the trip is technically business, and therefore free, so Feck it.

They Greeced your palm did they?

(I thank you!)

I know and sympathise with how you feel, honestly.

I haven't been on my beloved Tube since February 28th! Or any other kind of train since March 12th!

Managed to squeeze on a quick Aberdeen to Inverness train round trip on March 6th, staying with relatives in Aberdeen until just before the UK lockdown, but I've given up any hope of doing Inverness to Kyle (near Skye) or Inverness to Wick/Thurso this year

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Do not assume a Nationalist majority is inevitable.

I think it increasingly likely all Unionist parties will combine under 1 Unionist Alliance ticket led by Ruth Davidson, just standing one Unionist candidate at constituency level at Holyrood against the SNP, with the Unionist parties only standing separately against each other as Tories, Labour and LD on the Holyrood list.

Thus maximising the number of Unionist MSPs to stop a Nationalist SNP or SNP and Green majority

Lol.
Weren't you promoting the idea of Swinson running for Holyrood and leading the Unionist fight back a few months ago? That's not quite as loonball as an alliance led by Baroness Line in The Sand spending most of her time in London in an effort to bring 'democracy' to the HoL (and incidentally pocket the £300 a day expenses).

Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level

Terrified? Even the Sun agreed that Davidson got absolutely walloped at Holyrood last week.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/5920492/nicola-sturgeon-ruth-davidson-fmqs-loyalty-house-lords/

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1295817072073674754

MaxPB said:

contrarian said:

LadyG said:

contrarian said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.

Ireland looks as if it has problems

And meanwhile, the UK seven day average for cases confirmed by test appears to be levelling off, and the total number of Covid patients left in hospital is now just under 900 and has resumed its trend downwards.

We can't be that different to Ireland - can we? Goodness knows what's going on.

I think it is young people who may be an issue with covid compliance in most of the recent problems

They are out here but so are family and friends gatherings.

Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

It might not go on for ever.

Just did a walk around leafy north London: Hampstead, Belsize, Primrose Hill.

A pleasant soft summer evening, and all the restaurants are absolutely RAMMED with people, young and old, enjoying the Eat Out to Help Out. Several places had long queues.

I did my bit last night with my new girlfriend. Ate her out. Everyone has to help.

I have barely left my home except for exercise, partly because I want to be able to get through this without wearing a mask.

On the other hand, I have spent a great deal of money on redecorating our home, handing over big sums to plasterers, painters, flooring people, landscapers and shutter installers.

You don't need to wear a mask at restaurants. Would be quite impractical to have one on while eating.

Particularly if lady G's new fancy is the dish of the day

Interesting

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1295720528519585808?s=09

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefitted our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

The restaurants on London Rd in Leicester were packed out, mostly with Asian families, and adjacent to the hotspot area. Thanks, but no thanks...

Dental appointment went well, no major work required on my broken tooth. Continued neglect was the recommendation.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefitted our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

Compared to the suggestion of helicopter money that the rumour mill had put out before this began the scheme sounded a bit mild and a bit gimmicky in comparison. But its definitely working on a sector that needed it, is targeted and I expect it has a major multiplier effect.

Very well done Rishi.

It seems to have worked fine, there was much criticism on here that it didnt include alcohol but I think that is very justified as the way the scheme is set up it would have encouraged pub crawls to get multiple discounts compared to staying in one venue where you are limited to £10. Whilst the moneysavingexpert crowd may switch restaurants for their food between each course that is going to be a far more niche activity than those thinking its a great excuse for half price drinks all night in various venues.

In terms of controlling the virus, people going out to a particular venue for an evening, is very different and lower risk than people going to several different venues.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I wonder if Sean will be gay next time?

He seems to be gay this time.

MaxPB said:

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefited our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

Well, that's one chain and we'll see in due time if that is widely reflected across the restaurant and hospitality industry but it's encouraging.

It's fair to say away from coastal towns many establishments are normally quieter in August so of course it's welcome to see business generated which would not normally have occurred.

There are still capacity limitations in place so it's not quite business as usual.

To be brutally honest, it's nothing to do with "confidence" - give people the chance to eat cheap and they'll grab it, risk or no risk. If you can get a £40 meal for £20 (assuming the quality) you'll take it all day every day and after months of being denied one of life's pleasures I can understand people wanting to take advantage.

The truth is there has been a cost of £500 million to the nation's finances but offset that against the cost of businesses failing and it looks a deal for now.

As to what happens once outdoor space becomes impractical and Sunak's largesse ends next month, we'll see.

LadyG said:

SandyRentool said:

LadyG said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

Why are people like you booking and actually going on holiday during a global pandemic?

Because life must go on, Sunil. Otherwise the world will collapse. I factor in a modicum of risk.

Also the trip is technically business, and therefore free, so Feck it.

The Sunday Papers are still funding travel writer jollies?

Christ.

I have been commissioned to paint some of the less well known amphibian life of the Greek cave and lacustrine systems, including the Epirus Water Frog

https://www.herpsafari.nl/trip-reports-eu/2017-7-greece-peloponnese-pindos-kythira-pori/

No trip to Lesbos?

SandyRentool said:

Anabobazina said:

I see we’ve reverted to calling people dicks and dickheads merely for living their lives.

Hold on a moment. I was referring to the suggestion of coming up with ways to flout the quarantine rules. If you think that is acceptable behaviour then we aren't on the same page.

Okay. Apologies if so. I read it as meaning his travelling per se.

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefitted our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

The restaurants on London Rd in Leicester were packed out, mostly with Asian families, and adjacent to the hotspot area. Thanks, but no thanks...

Dental appointment went well, no major work required on my broken tooth. Continued neglect was the recommendation.

I didn’t realise Leicester was out of lockdown!

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Michelle Obama spoke well but wasn't much detail there all mainly generalities about taking the moral high ground and going to vote

Michelle Obama isn't going to be part of the administration so it's not for her to provide the detail of what a Biden/Harris administration would do or look like.

Her task was to galvanise the Democratic faithful into getting out and working for and ultimately voting for Biden/Harris and not stay at home which did for Clinton/Kaine four years ago.

I think she did that very well and if it provokes another bitter and vitriolic tweet from Trump, so much the better.

The Democrat road to victory is through maximising their own support, getting more registered Republicans to switch and matching Trump among the Independents.

Let's not forget in the popular vote Clinton won 48-46 last time - Biden has to do better but not much better. Turning that 2-point,lead into a 5-7 point national advantage should flip enough states to take Biden/Harris past 270 EC votes.

Personally I thought she was pretty awful. I'm not a US citizen, but I'd imagine if I were that my allegiances would be on the right of the Democratic party, or on the very non-religious fringe of the Republicans. An obvious floating voter if I was there.

Joe Biden - directed by 'faith' - I know it works in the US, but total turn-off for me.

Trump is awful, but in my view he's miles ahead of this Democratic shambles.

On the plus side for the Democrats Biden has charisma and a folksy manner, on the plus side for Trump Biden also probably has the lowest IQ of any Democratic presidential nominee since WW2

You're making quite a courageous assumption about how predictive IQ is of electoral success.

Charisma is generally the key predictor of electoral success in the USA (and often elsewhere too) but high IQ v charisma elections are often very close e.g. 1960, 2000 and 2016

I doubt Nixon had a higher IQ than Kennedy, or at least not materially so. Indeed, it was one of the many things about which he had a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He wasn't thick, and got a good degree, but wasn't an intellectual by any means.

And it's also the case that "high IQ v charisma" elections often aren't that close at all. Reagan twice stomped fairly heavily on much more traditionally smart candidates.

Also, I think you would yourself say this isn't a "high IQ v charisma" election. It's a folksy charm charisma v bombastic charisma election - neither man is an intellectual.

Nixon got top grades at Duke law school and was a top attorney, JFK got 119 on the only IQ test he ever took as a young man. Slightly above average but not high IQ at all.

Neither Mondale nor Carter were as bright as Gore or Hillary in my view, both Gore and Hillary had very high SAT scores for example. Carter was always seen as a folksy southerner anyway when he first ran in 1976 against the more establishment Ford.

Neither Trump nor Biden are intellectuals no but I would say Trump is sharper than Biden

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

In the BBC article the owner of a restaurant chain has said it is having the intended effect of making people more confident in going out and their weekend bookings are also strong -

"The Eat Out to Help Out scheme has really been amazing," said Stephen Wall, managing director and co-founder of restaurant chain Pho. "It's so nice to see our restaurants full of happy staff and customers again.

"It has certainly benefited our early week figures and seems to have encouraged the British public to dine out safely, as our restaurants are filling up and staying busy throughout the weekend, too."

It is probably the most successful government policy we've seen in absolutely ages. It is definitely having the intended effect of getting people into restaurants and pubs for the first time and showing people that it is safe to go out again. I don't think they will bother keeping it for September because of that reason, there won't be any need for it. If they do then it might only be for an extra couple of weeks while the weather is good and extra outdoor capacity can be put in place.

Well, that's one chain and we'll see in due time if that is widely reflected across the restaurant and hospitality industry but it's encouraging.

It's fair to say away from coastal towns many establishments are normally quieter in August so of course it's welcome to see business generated which would not normally have occurred.

There are still capacity limitations in place so it's not quite business as usual.

To be brutally honest, it's nothing to do with "confidence" - give people the chance to eat cheap and they'll grab it, risk or no risk. If you can get a £40 meal for £20 (assuming the quality) you'll take it all day every day and after months of being denied one of life's pleasures I can understand people wanting to take advantage.

The truth is there has been a cost of £500 million to the nation's finances but offset that against the cost of businesses failing and it looks a deal for now.

As to what happens once outdoor space becomes impractical and Sunak's largesse ends next month, we'll see.

Of course it is about confidence! Lots of people refused to go to the pub before and now it’s been normalised again. It’s been a superb way of getting that absolutely crucial sector moving again.

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Do not assume a Nationalist majority is inevitable.

I think it increasingly likely all Unionist parties will combine under 1 Unionist Alliance ticket led by Ruth Davidson, just standing one Unionist candidate at constituency level at Holyrood against the SNP, with the Unionist parties only standing separately against each other as Tories, Labour and LD on the Holyrood list.

Thus maximising the number of Unionist MSPs to stop a Nationalist SNP or SNP and Green majority

Lol.
Weren't you promoting the idea of Swinson running for Holyrood and leading the Unionist fight back a few months ago? That's not quite as loonball as an alliance led by Baroness Line in The Sand spending most of her time in London in an effort to bring 'democracy' to the HoL (and incidentally pocket the £300 a day expenses).

Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level

Is 'Got the Nats rattled' or 'X terrifies Sturgeon' the biggest indicator of a total porridge brained approach to Scotpol?

How well I remember your breathless excitement at the accession of Jim Murphy as SLab leader, and the subsequent 1.5% increase for SLab in a Scottish subsample.

Unlike Murphy however Davidson has already made gains off Sturgeon and the SNP in 2016 and 2017

And then tanked in the Euros and scuttled off before the Ruth Davidson against Indy Ref II party tanked even more in the GE.

Combine the Unionist parties in 2019 and they got over 50% to 45% for the SNP, hence the idea of a Unionist Alliance in 2021

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Interesting

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1295720528519585808?s=09

No, Biden is a great friend of Neil Kinnock.

2020 is basically Farage v Kinnock in UK terms

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1295822373703294976

Has Williamson offered to resign then

LadyG said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LadyG said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

Why are people like you booking and actually going on holiday during a global pandemic?

Because life must go on, Sunil. Otherwise the world will collapse. I factor in a modicum of risk.

Also the trip is technically business, and therefore free, so Feck it.

They Greeced your palm did they?

(I thank you!)

I know and sympathise with how you feel, honestly.

I haven't been on my beloved Tube since February 28th! Or any other kind of train since March 12th!

Managed to squeeze on a quick Aberdeen to Inverness train round trip on March 6th, staying with relatives in Aberdeen until just before the UK lockdown, but I've given up any hope of doing Inverness to Kyle (near Skye) or Inverness to Wick/Thurso this year

I've done Inverness to Kyle. It is a glorious journey. I hope you get to do it soon.

Have you done the minor Cornish branch lines? They are fabulous, in a small, exquisite way

Thanks

I have done virtually all of the official National Rail network, save for those two trains from Inverness. I did Cornwall back in September 2018, including St Ives and Looe. And very nice they were too. Even managed to alight at the little used Coombe Junction station!

MaxPB said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

More good news from Rishi's scheme.

Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

Is it possible they said more but the BBC are selectively quoting the bit they want and judge to be the most newsworthy, which is the equality point from July?

That would be very BBC. But I accept the IFS are going that way too.

Thanks to @rcs1000 and @MaxPB for their answers on Norway and Switzerland earlier.

Very interesting.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IanB2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I wonder if Sean will be gay next time?

He seems to be gay this time.

Perhaps he'll be straight next time?

If be he, then maybe he's stirring his brain for a new work of fiction.

LadyG said:

contrarian said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.

Ireland looks as if it has problems

And meanwhile, the UK seven day average for cases confirmed by test appears to be levelling off, and the total number of Covid patients left in hospital is now just under 900 and has resumed its trend downwards.

We can't be that different to Ireland - can we? Goodness knows what's going on.

I think it is young people who may be an issue with covid compliance in most of the recent problems

They are out here but so are family and friends gatherings.

Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

It might not go on for ever.

Just did a walk around leafy north London: Hampstead, Belsize, Primrose Hill.

A pleasant soft summer evening, and all the restaurants are absolutely RAMMED with people, young and old, enjoying the Eat Out to Help Out. Several places had long queues.

I did my bit last night with my new girlfriend. Ate her out. Everyone has to help.

Did she ask for your voucher?

SandyRentool said:

Anabobazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anabobazina said:

I see we’ve reverted to calling people dicks and dickheads merely for living their lives.

Hold on a moment. I was referring to the suggestion of coming up with ways to flout the quarantine rules. If you think that is acceptable behaviour then we aren't on the same page.

Okay. Apologies if so. I read it as meaning his travelling per se.

Thanks. As you'll see, I got the wrong end of the stick with Sean's post.

Understandable, as he was the only PB’er who didn’t understand what ‘stay at home’ means. Then went on to pen articles about the experience of ‘lockdown’ whist himself spending it enjoying a holiday.

LadyG said:

MaxPB said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Everything is outdoors, clubs aren't open at all and bars aren't open for indoor business. Everyone very strictly adheres to the mask rules and Italians are very unforgiving towards those who don't wear them. It helps that the outdoor weather is suitable for dining and drinking until late, but either way I'm almost certain that pushing almost everything to being outdoors is the reason.

But isn't Spanish night time/bar/resto culture almost identical? Maybe the Italians are a little more laid back at night, but I don't see a major difference. Cetainly not a climatic difference.

And yet Spain has a horror show of a case rate, and Italy has it all under control. Odd.

Neither the UK nor Italy have unshuttered the nightclubs. Beyond that, are younger people in those countries taking the social distancing rules a bit more seriously, and/or are they less likely to congregate in pubs/bars and in large groups?

Are older people in the UK and Italy less likely to venture out than in some other European countries? And does anyone know if the Italian WFH rate is anything like the exceptionally high level for UK office workers?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Yes, I’ll be off to Italy early next month.

Obviously, if you spend 14 days after your visit to a quarantine-able country in a non-quarantineable one, before returning to the UK, you don’t have to go into quarantine. Hence my drive out will be via France but I have rearranged the drive back via Switzerland and Germany. Transiting through France is OK provided you don’t get out of the car.

The Italians really are taking things very seriously. Their crisis was so stark and concentrated in one region (really one part of one region) that they all got the message way back.

Suppose you need to be, ah, "excused"??

The test is, I believe, whether you mixed with others.

Peeing behind a Bush is OK, but a pissoir is out of bounds. Unless empty.

Hence refuelling the car at an automatic pump is OK but going in to pay is a no-no.

Hence also why that Australian endurance swimmer was allowed to step onto a French beach last week before swimming back, with no quarantine requirement.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1295822814147219458

IanB2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I wonder if Sean will be gay next time?

He seems to be gay this time.

I always thought the men's underwear model incarnation was gay.

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Do not assume a Nationalist majority is inevitable.

I think it increasingly likely all Unionist parties will combine under 1 Unionist Alliance ticket led by Ruth Davidson, just standing one Unionist candidate at constituency level at Holyrood against the SNP, with the Unionist parties only standing separately against each other as Tories, Labour and LD on the Holyrood list.

Thus maximising the number of Unionist MSPs to stop a Nationalist SNP or SNP and Green majority

Lol.
Weren't you promoting the idea of Swinson running for Holyrood and leading the Unionist fight back a few months ago? That's not quite as loonball as an alliance led by Baroness Line in The Sand spending most of her time in London in an effort to bring 'democracy' to the HoL (and incidentally pocket the £300 a day expenses).

Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level

Is 'Got the Nats rattled' or 'X terrifies Sturgeon' the biggest indicator of a total porridge brained approach to Scotpol?

How well I remember your breathless excitement at the accession of Jim Murphy as SLab leader, and the subsequent 1.5% increase for SLab in a Scottish subsample.

Unlike Murphy however Davidson has already made gains off Sturgeon and the SNP in 2016 and 2017

And then tanked in the Euros and scuttled off before the Ruth Davidson against Indy Ref II party tanked even more in the GE.

Combine the Unionist parties in 2019 and they got over 50% to 45% for the SNP, hence the idea of a Unionist Alliance in 2021

Never in a million years going to happen, don't be a dingbat. Many Labour voters would sooner ally with the SNP than the Tories.

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Yes, I’ll be off to Italy early next month.

Obviously, if you spend 14 days after your visit to a quarantine-able country in a non-quarantineable one, before returning to the UK, you don’t have to go into quarantine. Hence my drive out will be via France but I have rearranged the drive back via Switzerland and Germany. Transiting through France is OK provided you don’t get out of the car.

The Italians really are taking things very seriously. Their crisis was so stark and concentrated in one region (really one part of one region) that they all got the message way back.

Mad times! But your plan is sensible.

If Greece does get the ban hammer, I think I will get a ferry over to Bari and spend my fortnight in Puglia. Never been. Hear its nice. Then come home

It's a superb excuse to extend a nice trip to the Med.

LadyG said:

MaxPB said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Everything is outdoors, clubs aren't open at all and bars aren't open for indoor business. Everyone very strictly adheres to the mask rules and Italians are very unforgiving towards those who don't wear them. It helps that the outdoor weather is suitable for dining and drinking until late, but either way I'm almost certain that pushing almost everything to being outdoors is the reason.

But isn't Spanish night time/bar/resto culture almost identical? Maybe the Italians are a little more laid back at night, but I don't see a major difference. Cetainly not a climatic difference.

And yet Spain has a horror show of a case rate, and Italy has it all under control. Odd.

There is the minor difference that the late night Spanish bars and clubs are open, whereas in Italy they are shut.

One also wonders whether the nature of tourism in the respective countries is rather different.

Yeah I think the second point is a factor as well. Tourism to Italy seems to be couples aged 25-40 looking for good food, wine and weather. Tourism to Spain is more geared towards groups of 18-30 year olds looking to get wankered. No one comes to Italy on a lads holiday, it just wouldn't make any sense. We're going to the opera tomorrow to see Tristan and Isolde, it's about as far away as one could get from a lads holiday.

LadyG said:

MaxPB said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Everything is outdoors, clubs aren't open at all and bars aren't open for indoor business. Everyone very strictly adheres to the mask rules and Italians are very unforgiving towards those who don't wear them. It helps that the outdoor weather is suitable for dining and drinking until late, but either way I'm almost certain that pushing almost everything to being outdoors is the reason.

But isn't Spanish night time/bar/resto culture almost identical? Maybe the Italians are a little more laid back at night, but I don't see a major difference. Cetainly not a climatic difference.

And yet Spain has a horror show of a case rate, and Italy has it all under control. Odd.

I hate to say it, but the type of tourists in Italy are quite different from those in on the spainish coasts and islands, well at least in August they are.

LadyG said:

MaxPB said:

LadyG said:

MaxPB said:

LadyG said:

IanB2 said:

LadyG said:

Question:

I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

The form you are required to fill in for border control with details of your whereabouts the previous 14 days

Ta.

So you could cross to Turkey, continue the holiday there for 14 days, then come home fine?

Tempting, in the circs

Unless of course Turkey also goes tits up

The best holiday place right now is, weirdly, Italy. They seem to have a real grip on things. I wonder why it is so different there, compared to Spain?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Everything is outdoors, clubs aren't open at all and bars aren't open for indoor business. Everyone very strictly adheres to the mask rules and Italians are very unforgiving towards those who don't wear them. It helps that the outdoor weather is suitable for dining and drinking until late, but either way I'm almost certain that pushing almost everything to being outdoors is the reason.

But isn't Spanish night time/bar/resto culture almost identical? Maybe the Italians are a little more laid back at night, but I don't see a major difference. Cetainly not a climatic difference.

And yet Spain has a horror show of a case rate, and Italy has it all under control. Odd.

Spain opened up its nightclubs and bars, loads of young people got infected, those young people are waiters, barmaids and baristas during the day coming into contact, usually indoors, with the wider public and in Spain young people live with their parents until they turn ~27-29 so there was also a lot of in home transmission.

It's clubs and bars that seem to be the most likely transmission vector. Dancing, sweating, singing and shouting, all of them are likely to cause transmission.

And Italy didn't open clubs?

Genuine question. if that's the case then yes it explains the difference.

Opening clubs does seem to be absolutely stupid. They're gonna have to stay shut til a vaccine, I fear. Which is terrible for places like Ibiza but a sweaty crowded Spanish nightclub is the perfect vector,

I have also heard that the French have gone back to le bisou - the actual touchy kiss as greeting - which alone explains their problem.

Thank God for British chilliness.

No clubs open in Italy and all bars have to operate their outdoor space only, all indoor space is shut for bars, even for sit down drinks and there's table service with waitresses all wearing masks. All restaurants and bars have hand sanitiser on entry as well. As I said, they are very rigourous about this stuff.