politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wedged: the looming problem for Boris Johnson
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wedged: the looming problem for Boris Johnson
This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain. pic.twitter.com/dLQUVauCKg
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
This is going to be popular!
Their view was Boris Johnson and the Tories will deny Scotland a referendum for as long as they are in power then let Labour take the can for losing Scotland.
Boris Johnson being Boris Johnson doesn't want to be seen as the modern day Lord North.
On the main point, I think again we are risking mistaking lethargy for strategy. Isn't it possible Johnson is just making shit up as he goes along?
Those tips are remembered fondly here, as especially as they were pooh poohed by some Nats on here and elsewhere.
The Lord North analogy is an interesting one: as I recall Britain's North American colonies have done alright for themselves since becoming independent.
"The number of undocumented migrants crossing the English Channel does not begin to fill the gaps left by all those people who needlessly died with Covid-19 owing to the government’s negligence"
Tasteless, toneless, valueless, pointless.
Does Putin try to shore up a leader who makes Nicholas Maduro look popular and legitimate, or tell him to do one and gain kudos by facilitating a power transfer to the opposition?
Any pointers yet?
Yes, I can see that the nutters like Cherry would froth and scream and stamp their feet. But ultimately there's nothing they can do unless they come over all Hyufd and try violence.
Also, the slavery was our idea, and our leader is also a moron, or perhaps you hadn't noticed.
Toby Young's Free Speech Union would have you out on your ear.
So, as far as genuine existential threats to the UK, the boats ain't it.
But why the comparison with the number of Covid dead? The implication is that we should be looking to swap those who die for asylum seekers, which is just bizarre.
Maybe they're scared the cosmonauts won't want to come back?
I did find it amusing though that a nation that lionises the disaster that was Dunkirk gets so worked up about a few people crossing in pedaloes. Surely we should be pleased to see the old ways kept up?
Willkommen zurück!
(I'm learning German on Duolingo in preparation for our bright new future)
Why do you think there is so much concern about migrant boats, and yet when we offer 3m HK chinese pathways to passports nobody bats an eyelid?
Here's why.
Brexiteers see Britain as the Real Madrid and Manchester United of immigration rolled into one.
They think we have our pick. We can choose exactly who we want to play for our team, when we want them to play and the size of the squad we want from overseas players. The demand is enormous. Patently.
Brexitters are tired of what they see as third division players with no skills who are also not team players and cost a fortune to maintain.
And I'll tell you what. Labour will never form a government again until they grasp this simple truth
For the record, in case you had forgotten or not noticed, I have always said that if the SNP get a majority at Holyrood, they should have a further referendum.
But that doesn't alter the law, which is so clear I would have thought even someone as dense as Joanna Cherry would understand it, which is that it is the UK government's decision.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
But it is reasonably uncontroversial that aspects of the Government's response (particularly very late lockdown and PPE shortages) contributed significantly to the UK death reate being very much on the high side internationally.
It's just interesting that in the Tory mind, Scottish independence is likened to losing a colony (and it can't be admitted that the erstwhile colony prospered afterwards).
No, it hasn't aged well.
Although the man in the picture has noticeably aged.
Can't think why.
Botch Brexit and fail to stop those boats?? Those are huge issues for the tories. A soft brexit in particular.
It does go to show just how powerful the US is. They are bringing down the Chinese national champion before our very eyes with basically no international coordination and unilateral action to freeze Huawei out of the US derived supply chain. If the next president has half of this gumption then they could truly bring China to its knees very quickly. Being a customer is always more powerful than being the retailer, it turns out. I also hope Germany are paying very close attention, there is a lot of unease in the US (in both parties) about the size of the US/Germany deficit sanctions targeting the EU due to national security concerns around the Nord Stream pipeline could be something to look out for. We've seen how China have been incapable of resisting these kinds of sanctions and Huawei will fall, I hope that Germany doesn't ignore this lesson.
'I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay.'
Yes, that’s true and something Farage was at pains to point out numerous times during the brexit debates?
I'm not sure I agree with the central thesis though.
I think Boris denying Sturgeon on independence will have very few ramifications with his base. He can easily portray it as saying no to difficult Scots/standing up for Britain etc.
And I don't think English voters being keen on English independence is equivalent to them being keen on Scottish independence.
One of the reasons Lukashenko is in so much danger is that the opposition isn't notably pro-West, or anti-Putin, so he's much more expendable.
Very good and very true.
[Though I'd switch Man Utd with Liverpool but I won't grumble . . . mustn't grumble]
The Supreme Court of the UK would love to give a ruling on Indyref2, which would inevitably go against the UK Government.
This is simply yet another example of cancel culture.
It feeds the conspiracy and thus undermines the ultimate causes of what companies like Twitter claim to support.
That’s a great argument to win people over. Some of these refugees may be useless but there are plenty of others here who are useless so it doesn’t matter
One good thing about the Trump Presidency (yes, there have been a few) has been how it's stood up to China in a way Obama never would have done.
I hope that is sufficiently contrarian for you.
Jurgen Klopp does not take 20 random footballers who want to play for Liverpool on the off chance there might be a Messi in there.
They are watched. They are scouted. They are tapped up. They are selected. They sign contracts that demand levels of commitment and conduct.
THAT is what many of the voters of England want for their immigration system. Crucially Farage understands that. Very few others do.
I'd be surprised if Priti Patel didn't get up in the morning and throw darts at pictures of Nigel Farage from dawn til dusk. Those boats are the last thing she and her department want in the news because the motivation to do things about them by both is patently precisely zero.
This isn;t coming from the top, its coming from grassroots.
It resonates because its uncontrolled. Control of a nation's borders is very visceral - no Government could tolerate or shrug off illegal intrusions like this, which are very easily reported - as it makes it look incompetent, useless and creates the perception that if it can't control something basic like that then it has no firm control on anything.
It also strikes against the British sense of fair play. Everyone knows the vast majority are healthy young men, who can afford to pay the smugglers, who are tutored to ditch their papers, contact the right lawyers, claim persecution, and stick to the right story to get asylum when they get here. Meanwhile there are thousands of vulnerable others in genuine real need who get tortured or killed under oppressive and authoritarian regimes.
I've said before that the British would accept higher levels of legitimate and legal asylum claimants provided they had control and the process was fair.
So this tiresome racist v.anti-racist narrative that's made out of it is just tedious culture war hogwash by preening narcissists.
He will use the "once in a generation" line, and the fact this *might* cause extra grievance in Scotland will not bother him, given that he's likely to lose anyway. Better to wait, hand over the mess to the next government. He is determined not to be the PM that loses the Union. He will not risk it.
And if it goes to the Supreme Court the govt will win, referendums are a reserved matter: an issue for Westminster. This isn't a legal grey area.
All that said, Meeks is right on his central point, a massive constitutional brouhaha is a-coming, which will reach its peak in the late 2020s. What joy.
I see two ways of defusing it:
1, a huge royal commission establishing a proper Federal Britain with a new House of Federal Lords (in Edinburgh?)
2, Labour promising a new referendum in 2024, taking us back into the EU. The more I think about it, the more I see this as possible. We're in for a torrid few years and by 2023 rejoining the EU might seem quite seductive: and it would likely solve the Scottish problem (and give Starmer some Scots MPs)
Smart place would be Liverpool, which is about in the middle of the four capitals.
Meanwhile they are by and large illegal economic migrants, and privileged ones at that able to afford several thousand pounds, where the real deserving for asylum languish elsewhere.
That's surely what's missing here, yet the narrative never suggests huge demand for the government to go down that route.
It's utterly predictable and me-too ish.
You don't see a team hunting under the covers too often at first class level.
And that means seeing England as a football club and the government as the chief scout.
Maybe I just don't have a sense of humour.
Its not good enough and it won;t be accepted as good enough in the future, I don;t think.
Still the left whinged that we should be taking every tom dick and harry that could make it to the shore here. We should instead have sent them straight to the camp and for each one sent taken a genuine refugee