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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wedged: the looming problem for Boris Johnson

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  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    Yet the Government are basically proposing to do that, do you honestly think the Government gives a toss what people like me think? Of course not.

    You're always blaming somebody else, when the Government is just utterly incompetent, that's the truth.

    With you the problem is always somewhere else.
    The government aren't forcing people into boats or to come on planes and destroy their documents. How they deal with them afterwards yes is down to the government and sadly they have paid far too much attention to the left rather than doing what they should and instant deporting them and for everyone they do taking a refugee from the camp in return. Wouldn't change the number of refugees it would however advantage those that played fair and square by the rules rather than queue jumped.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    algarkirk said:

    As all sides accepted at the time that IndyRef1 was a once in a generation issue it would seem to me that before even thinking about Ref2 the opinions of the rest of the UK should be considered. I don't see why one side in this four nations issue should be permitted to trump all the other considerations now that the Scots have decisively voted to stay with the UK.

    The question of whether we in England (or Wales or NI) want to be independent of Scotland is a relevant consideration too. One unilateral chance for the Scots to require the rest of us to go independent of Scotland is enough for now.

    Your arse, no-one said any rule about once in a genetration , it was never in any document or signed by any party. A few rhetorical mentions that it was a once in a generation chance does not maake it Law. Go stuff yourself, it has F all to do with rest of UK.
  • malcolmg said:

    Your arse, no-one said any rule about once in a genetration , it was never in any document or signed by any party. A few rhetorical mentions that it was a once in a generation chance does not maake it Law. Go stuff yourself, it has F all to do with rest of UK.
    Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    Pagan2 said:

    I would agree that boats are the least of the issues, however being tough in the way you suggest would not be popular in some segments of society and they would write strongly worded comments on twitter
    When I did a video on solving illegal immigration, I got an equal amount of hatred from both Left and Right. I get the feeling that most people don't want a system that actually works.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG4NCHuvCC4

    (Read the comments below if you want to appreciate just how intelligent and well balanced political betting commenters are)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Had not to be impressed by Michelle Obama's speech to the virtual DNC. Very strong words - to what extent they would impress or change any Trump voter is debatable but that isn't the point of the DNC or indeed any party conference.

    Gatherings like that speak to the faithful or the supportive - the Democrats probably know IF they get their vote out they will win and it was their failure to do so last time which cost them so dearly.

    Last time, 37% of the voters were registered Democrats (they broke 89-9 for Clinton) and 33% were registered Republican (90-7 for Trump) but 31% were Independent and crucially they broke 47-42 for Trump.

    Interestingly, the ABC News/Washington Post poll last night which put Biden ahead 54-44 sampled 31% Democrats, 26% Republicans and 37% Independents.

    The Economist/YouGov sample is 42% Democrat, 33% Independent and 25% Republican. As I don't have access to the Rasmussen or Trafalgar crosstabs, I don't know how their sampling methodology operates.

    Make of that what you will.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
    Bit hard given she is dead.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    So Alastair Meeks has a problem with the public having a problem with people crossing the channel to enter Britain illegally? People who are not coming straight from a warzone or death camps but France.

    As for them being desperate - some way well be. Many others only seem to be desperate enough to travel over when the weather is relatively good. I'm not sure that the public are on the whole appalled by this. I suspect most people are WORRIED about our borders not being secure and a feeling that if we can't control this Britain will fall apart. And they are right.

    Why is this so hard to accept? It just feels like another case of sour grapes because the public refuse to focus on the things you want them to.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    rcs1000 said:

    When I did a video on solving illegal immigration, I got an equal amount of hatred from both Left and Right. I get the feeling that most people don't want a system that actually works.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG4NCHuvCC4

    (Read the comments below if you want to appreciate just how intelligent and well balanced political betting commenters are)
    I think you are probably right and now things have got so tribal that mostly activists are more interested in pointing at the supposed wrong doing of the other side than they are actually finding a solution.

    This is why I never bought into the whole its the oppositions duty to oppose line of thought. It is the oppositions duty to oppose where they genuinely think the other party is going down the wrong path. It is the oppositions duty to make suggestions where they think its on the whole a good idea but they can see flaws.

    This is why we get tory party suggest a labour oppose. Labour get in basically suggest a with minor changes tory party opposes. It's why we never get shit fixed like social care.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    The Whisky industry accuses UK Govt of being “asleep at the wheel” over Trump’s crippling tariffs and Hard Brexit’s still to hit. That’s what happens when you let Tory clowns like Liz Truss run your international trade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114
    stodge said:

    Had not to be impressed by Michelle Obama's speech to the virtual DNC. Very strong words - to what extent they would impress or change any Trump voter is debatable but that isn't the point of the DNC or indeed any party conference.

    Gatherings like that speak to the faithful or the supportive - the Democrats probably know IF they get their vote out they will win and it was their failure to do so last time which cost them so dearly.

    Last time, 37% of the voters were registered Democrats (they broke 89-9 for Clinton) and 33% were registered Republican (90-7 for Trump) but 31% were Independent and crucially they broke 47-42 for Trump.

    Interestingly, the ABC News/Washington Post poll last night which put Biden ahead 54-44 sampled 31% Democrats, 26% Republicans and 37% Independents.

    The Economist/YouGov sample is 42% Democrat, 33% Independent and 25% Republican. As I don't have access to the Rasmussen or Trafalgar crosstabs, I don't know how their sampling methodology operates.

    Make of that what you will.

    Michelle Obama spoke well but wasn't much detail there all mainly generalities about taking the moral high ground and going to vote
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Perhaps more than anything else currently I hope we can have a peaceful transition of power in Belarus (followed by the USA in November) without the incumbent resorting to trickery or violence to perpetuate his hold on power.

    IF Moscow signals it will accept a transition (and those protesting can't be seen to be too pro-western or anti-Russian) Lukashenko will begin to run out of options.

    I'm hoping the Opposition keeps its lines of communication open with Putin and can convince him they can provide a friendly, stable and peaceful Belarus with whom he can continue to do business and work.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    stodge said:

    Had not to be impressed by Michelle Obama's speech to the virtual DNC. Very strong words - to what extent they would impress or change any Trump voter is debatable but that isn't the point of the DNC or indeed any party conference.

    Gatherings like that speak to the faithful or the supportive - the Democrats probably know IF they get their vote out they will win and it was their failure to do so last time which cost them so dearly.

    Last time, 37% of the voters were registered Democrats (they broke 89-9 for Clinton) and 33% were registered Republican (90-7 for Trump) but 31% were Independent and crucially they broke 47-42 for Trump.

    Interestingly, the ABC News/Washington Post poll last night which put Biden ahead 54-44 sampled 31% Democrats, 26% Republicans and 37% Independents.

    The Economist/YouGov sample is 42% Democrat, 33% Independent and 25% Republican. As I don't have access to the Rasmussen or Trafalgar crosstabs, I don't know how their sampling methodology operates.

    Make of that what you will.

    I posted the numbers a while back, but the number of Registered Republicans has gone from 41-42% under Reagan and Bush Sr to 28% now, while the Democrats have dropped from 45% to 40%. Independents now outnumber Republicans for the first time.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    Lol.
    Weren't you promoting the idea of Swinson running for Holyrood and leading the Unionist fight back a few months ago? That's not quite as loonball as an alliance led by Baroness Line in The Sand spending most of her time in London in an effort to bring 'democracy' to the HoL (and incidentally pocket the £300 a day expenses).
    Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

    Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    malcolmg said:

    The Whisky industry accuses UK Govt of being “asleep at the wheel” over Trump’s crippling tariffs and Hard Brexit’s still to hit. That’s what happens when you let Tory clowns like Liz Truss run your international trade.

    I thought we were going to be required to change the name to Whiskey as part of the upcoming US trade deal?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    stodge said:

    Perhaps more than anything else currently I hope we can have a peaceful transition of power in Belarus (followed by the USA in November) without the incumbent resorting to trickery or violence to perpetuate his hold on power.

    IF Moscow signals it will accept a transition (and those protesting can't be seen to be too pro-western or anti-Russian) Lukashenko will begin to run out of options.

    I'm hoping the Opposition keeps its lines of communication open with Putin and can convince him they can provide a friendly, stable and peaceful Belarus with whom he can continue to do business and work.
    Yep. I get the impression that Putin is waiting to see which way the wind blows on this one. But too much EU or NATO involvement will be counter productive at this stage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Soldiers seize Mali President Ibrahim Boubakar Keïta"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53825673
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114
    IanB2 said:

    Those PB’ers who backed their life savings on HY’s firm assurances that Chuka will be our next PM after Boris might be starting to wonder precisely how this will come about?
    If Boris won a majority again in 2024 and Labour elected say Long Bailey to replace Starmer and Umunna then became LD leader anything could happen.

    Even if Starmer becomes PM he is unlikely to win a majority so you could end up with a Labour and LD coalition government and Umunna as Foreign Secretary and heir apparent
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    HYUFD said:


    Michelle Obama spoke well but wasn't much detail there all mainly generalities about taking the moral high ground and going to vote

    Michelle Obama isn't going to be part of the administration so it's not for her to provide the detail of what a Biden/Harris administration would do or look like.

    Her task was to galvanise the Democratic faithful into getting out and working for and ultimately voting for Biden/Harris and not stay at home which did for Clinton/Kaine four years ago.

    I think she did that very well and if it provokes another bitter and vitriolic tweet from Trump, so much the better.

    The Democrat road to victory is through maximising their own support, getting more registered Republicans to switch and matching Trump among the Independents.

    Let's not forget in the popular vote Clinton won 48-46 last time - Biden has to do better but not much better. Turning that 2-point,lead into a 5-7 point national advantage should flip enough states to take Biden/Harris past 270 EC votes.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought we were going to be required to change the name to Whiskey as part of the upcoming US trade deal?
    To whatever the Japanese is. They're leading the new wave of Whisky in my view.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

    More good news from Rishi's scheme.

    Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

    Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Excellent video Robert. Not sure why people would be so hostile to it. Probably just the social media sample.
  • malcolmg said:

    The Whisky industry accuses UK Govt of being “asleep at the wheel” over Trump’s crippling tariffs and Hard Brexit’s still to hit. That’s what happens when you let Tory clowns like Liz Truss run your international trade.

    At least it’s not as incompetent as the clown show currently on display at Holyrood.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited August 2020
    HYUFD said:

    If Boris won a majority again in 2024 and Labour elected say Long Bailey to replace Starmer and Umunna then became LD leader anything could happen.

    Even if Starmer becomes PM he is unlikely to win a majority so you could end up with a Labour and LD coalition government and Umunna as Foreign Secretary and heir apparent
    You do go on fantasy trips losing credibility on the way

    Many congratulations on your engagement by the way
  • Omnium said:

    To whatever the Japanese is. They're leading the new wave of Whisky in my view.
    Some of the best available are Japanese. Top drawer.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Boris won a majority again in 2024 and Labour elected say Long Bailey to replace Starmer and Umunna then became LD leader anything could happen.

    Even if Starmer becomes PM he is unlikely to win a majority so you could end up with a Labour and LD coalition government and Umunna as Foreign Secretary and heir apparent
    Is Chuka even interested in a political career now ? Thought that ship had sailed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    You do go on fantasy trips losing credibility on the way

    Many congratulations on your engagement by the way
    We can only hope that his impending marriage will be built on firmer foundations than his wildly imaginative political predications.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    You do go on fantasy trips losing credibility on the way

    Many congratulations on your engagement by the way
    Thanks
  • stodge said:

    Perhaps more than anything else currently I hope we can have a peaceful transition of power in Belarus (followed by the USA in November) without the incumbent resorting to trickery or violence to perpetuate his hold on power.

    IF Moscow signals it will accept a transition (and those protesting can't be seen to be too pro-western or anti-Russian) Lukashenko will begin to run out of options.

    I'm hoping the Opposition keeps its lines of communication open with Putin and can convince him they can provide a friendly, stable and peaceful Belarus with whom he can continue to do business and work.

    We see a,lot on the news about what is happening in Minsk, what about the rest of the country. Is there an upsurge there too ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    Is Chuka even interested in a political career now ? Thought that ship had sailed.
    Cities of London and Westminster is now only 14th on the Liberal Democrats target list, so certainly winnable in 2024
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    The trouble with Belarus is that it's hard to see the Russian government being anything other than a destructive presence.

    I fear it's a bit like Brexit. Two different roads and nothing in between.
  • HYUFD said:

    Thanks
    Yes, good for you. Hope you’ll both be very happy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    edited August 2020
    stodge said:

    Had not to be impressed by Michelle Obama's speech to the virtual DNC. Very strong words - to what extent they would impress or change any Trump voter is debatable but that isn't the point of the DNC or indeed any party conference.

    Gatherings like that speak to the faithful or the supportive - the Democrats probably know IF they get their vote out they will win and it was their failure to do so last time which cost them so dearly.

    Last time, 37% of the voters were registered Democrats (they broke 89-9 for Clinton) and 33% were registered Republican (90-7 for Trump) but 31% were Independent and crucially they broke 47-42 for Trump.

    Interestingly, the ABC News/Washington Post poll last night which put Biden ahead 54-44 sampled 31% Democrats, 26% Republicans and 37% Independents.

    The Economist/YouGov sample is 42% Democrat, 33% Independent and 25% Republican. As I don't have access to the Rasmussen or Trafalgar crosstabs, I don't know how their sampling methodology operates.

    Make of that what you will.

    When looking at the Titania Mcgrath Twitter ban, I noticed right wing Twitter is up in arms that she mentioned child cages, but apparently Obama created the child cages. Not sure if it'll have any cut through, these 'zingers' normally don't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    stodge said:

    Michelle Obama isn't going to be part of the administration so it's not for her to provide the detail of what a Biden/Harris administration would do or look like.

    Her task was to galvanise the Democratic faithful into getting out and working for and ultimately voting for Biden/Harris and not stay at home which did for Clinton/Kaine four years ago.

    I think she did that very well and if it provokes another bitter and vitriolic tweet from Trump, so much the better.

    The Democrat road to victory is through maximising their own support, getting more registered Republicans to switch and matching Trump among the Independents.

    Let's not forget in the popular vote Clinton won 48-46 last time - Biden has to do better but not much better. Turning that 2-point,lead into a 5-7 point national advantage should flip enough states to take Biden/Harris past 270 EC votes.

    Personally I thought she was pretty awful. I'm not a US citizen, but I'd imagine if I were that my allegiances would be on the right of the Democratic party, or on the very non-religious fringe of the Republicans. An obvious floating voter if I was there.

    Joe Biden - directed by 'faith' - I know it works in the US, but total turn-off for me.

    Trump is awful, but in my view he's miles ahead of this Democratic shambles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    Yes, good for you. Hope you’ll both be very happy.
    Thankyou
  • When looking at the Titania Mcgrath Twitter ban, I noticed right wing Twitter is up in arms that she mentioned cild cages, but apparently Obama created the child cages. Not sure if it'll have any cut through, these 'zingers' normally don't.
    Is that true though ? It’s hard to know what to believe on social media.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,288
    Pagan2 said:

    Well see you figures dont match, the government is saying half your figure of 11k accepted in 2018

    The source I quoted said 126k refugees and 45k asylum cases. I have no idea where you get your 11k from as you don't quote a source whereas robert did for the 5833 and I did for the 45k pending. Leaves me wondering what the 126k are doing are they pending to be pending?

    Regardless there seems a lot of manipulation of figures somewhere in here
    The 126K are those approved in previous years, perhaps going back a decade or longer, the 45 000 are the current cases under consideration surely?
  • IanB2 said:

    Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.

    Ireland looks as if it has problems
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    IanB2 said:

    Oldham in Greater Manchester is 48 hours away from potentially being ordered into a “catastrophic” and “premature” local lockdown, its council leader has warned.

    Catastrophic? I assume Oldham is going to be destroyed from orbit or something, or is this needless sensationalism?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846

    Is that true though ? It’s hard to know what to believe on social media.
    Pretty easy to prove/disprove with contemporary images and media reports I'd say
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    Is Chuka even interested in a political career now ? Thought that ship had sailed.
    Must be a short price for Strictly sooner or later?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Foxy said:

    The 126K are those approved in previous years, perhaps going back a decade or longer, the 45 000 are the current cases under consideration surely?
    I can't say I honestly know as they dont explain the figure. I do note however another discrepancy

    Asylum applications to the UK are relatively low – 35,566 in the year to December 2019. This is significantly lower than the peak of 84,000 applications back in 2002.

    That implies for a single year. I think you cited a 55% approval rate. that would mean about 18k to 19 k approved against rcs's quoted value of 5833 for the previous year.

    It also implies 45 K isnt a backlog from only approving 6k a year and taking multiple years/

    I don't honestly know where the truth lies but you can understand why I turn around and say none of these figures seem to fit with each other so.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    HYUFD said:

    Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

    Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level
    Is 'Got the Nats rattled' or 'X terrifies Sturgeon' the biggest indicator of a total porridge brained approach to Scotpol?

    How well I remember your breathless excitement at the accession of Jim Murphy as SLab leader, and the subsequent 1.5% increase for SLab in a Scottish subsample.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,288
    Pagan2 said:

    I can't say I honestly know as they dont explain the figure. I do note however another discrepancy

    Asylum applications to the UK are relatively low – 35,566 in the year to December 2019. This is significantly lower than the peak of 84,000 applications back in 2002.

    That implies for a single year. I think you cited a 55% approval rate. that would mean about 18k to 19 k approved against rcs's quoted value of 5833 for the previous year.

    It also implies 45 K isnt a backlog from only approving 6k a year and taking multiple years/

    I don't honestly know where the truth lies but you can understand why I turn around and say none of these figures seem to fit with each other so.....
    The success rate of applications used to be lower, but you are correct that numbers of asylum seekers have dropped a lot over the years. Spikes when places like Kosova or Zimbabwe erupt, and dies down between.

    The @rcs1000 approach to employment of illegals is a better way, but I think currently carries a £10K fine.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Ireland looks as if it has problems
    And meanwhile, the UK seven day average for cases confirmed by test appears to be levelling off, and the total number of Covid patients left in hospital is now just under 900 and has resumed its trend downwards.

    We can't be that different to Ireland - can we? Goodness knows what's going on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Good to see it has got the Nats rattled, the one thing the SNP fear is a united Unionist Alliance at constituency level so they no longer get elected on less than 50% of the vote in most SNP seats. Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of.

    Swinson could be Scottish LD leader on the list, Davidson would lead the Unionist Alliance at constituency level
    In which case, how do you have a credible Ruth Davidson against Indyref Party* when the good Lady-to-be isn't even standing for election?

    *with 'Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party" in the most microscopioc small print tucked away vertically in a back corner of the election literature
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114
    Omnium said:

    Personally I thought she was pretty awful. I'm not a US citizen, but I'd imagine if I were that my allegiances would be on the right of the Democratic party, or on the very non-religious fringe of the Republicans. An obvious floating voter if I was there.

    Joe Biden - directed by 'faith' - I know it works in the US, but total turn-off for me.

    Trump is awful, but in my view he's miles ahead of this Democratic shambles.
    On the plus side for the Democrats Biden has charisma and a folksy manner, on the plus side for Trump Biden also probably has the lowest IQ of any Democratic presidential nominee since WW2
  • And meanwhile, the UK seven day average for cases confirmed by test appears to be levelling off, and the total number of Covid patients left in hospital is now just under 900 and has resumed its trend downwards.

    We can't be that different to Ireland - can we? Goodness knows what's going on.
    I think it is young people who may be an issue with covid compliance in most of the recent problems
  • stodge said:



    Let's not forget in the popular vote Clinton won 48-46 last time - Biden has to do better but not much better. Turning that 2-point,lead into a 5-7 point national advantage should flip enough states to take Biden/Harris past 270 EC votes.

    He doesn't necessarily need to do better than Clinton on national lead, although it would plainly be much better for his chances if he did.

    It is true that, on average, the electoral college works to the Republicans' advantage, and there are two clear cases (2016 and 2000) where it turned a minority of votes into a win.

    But, if you look at the detail of Obama v Romney in 2012, Obama distributed his vote more efficiently. That is, the won the national vote share by just shy of 4% BUT Romney would've needed significantly more than a 2% uniform national swing to have got the win the tipping point state (that year) of Colorado.

    So it's less likely, but not outlandish by any means, for a Democrat to win on a minority of the popular vote. Clinton distributed her vote exceptionally inefficiently, barely campaigning in places like Wisconsin which was actually a crucial state. It's not a given that all Democrats would do that - Obama didn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    Is 'Got the Nats rattled' or 'X terrifies Sturgeon' the biggest indicator of a total porridge brained approach to Scotpol?

    How well I remember your breathless excitement at the accession of Jim Murphy as SLab leader, and the subsequent 1.5% increase for SLab in a Scottish subsample.
    Unlike Murphy however Davidson has already made gains off Sturgeon and the SNP in 2016 and 2017
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Is 'Got the Nats rattled' or 'X terrifies Sturgeon' the biggest indicator of a total porridge brained approach to Scotpol?

    https://twitter.com/BingoDemagogue/status/1295694091280318466
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114
    Carnyx said:

    In which case, how do you have a credible Ruth Davidson against Indyref Party* when the good Lady-to-be isn't even standing for election?

    *with 'Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party" in the most microscopioc small print tucked away vertically in a back corner of the election literature
    At the moment, she might fancy her chances holding her seat against Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central with the SNP there split between him and Cherry
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Soldiers seize Mali President Ibrahim Boubakar Keïta"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53825673

    Timbuk-coup?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    Omnium said:

    To whatever the Japanese is. They're leading the new wave of Whisky in my view.
    Yes, I've just discovered Japanese whisky. Really good stuff.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Timbuk-coup?
    Bamakoup shurley?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I think it is young people who may be an issue with covid compliance in most of the recent problems
    They are out here but so are family and friends gatherings.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2020
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment, she might fancy her chances holding her seat against Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central with the SNP there split between him and Cherry
    I think that's rather assuming too much, not least that there are two SNP candidates. Have you been on the electric [edit] soup again?
  • HYUFD said:

    On the plus side for the Democrats Biden has charisma and a folksy manner, on the plus side for Trump Biden also probably has the lowest IQ of any Democratic presidential nominee since WW2
    You're making quite a courageous assumption about how predictive IQ is of electoral success.
  • Mike Pence has gone out from 1.04 to 1.05 today in the GOP VP nominee betting. Is there any obvious reason for this? Trump is 1.01 for comparison.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited August 2020

    When looking at the Titania Mcgrath Twitter ban, I noticed right wing Twitter is up in arms that she mentioned child cages, but apparently Obama created the child cages. Not sure if it'll have any cut through, these 'zingers' normally don't.
    Oh has that stultifyingly tedious and unintelligent account for stultifyingly tedious and unintelligent people been cancelled? Rocking good news if so. But why? It was just routine woke bashing as far as I was aware.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BingoDemagogue/status/1295694091280318466
    See also

    'SNP honeymoon over'
    'has got the Nats rattled'
    'Ruth Davidson is also the one leader Sturgeon is still terrified of'

    Do you agree with all three points, Scotty?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

    More good news from Rishi's scheme.

    Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

    Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

    From a practical viewpoint its not really a bad scheme for people who are struggling financially either. Having a £20 meal for 2 drop to £10 feels far better than a £100 meal drop to £80.
  • Mike Pence has gone out from 1.04 to 1.05 today in the GOP VP nominee betting. Is there any obvious reason for this? Trump is 1.01 for comparison.

    That's barely a movement worth mentioning and I suspect the reason is someone who thinks there is a fractionally better than 5% chance of Trump ditching him has made a small sum (about £200 so fairly trivial) available at 1.05.

    It's totally understandable people would reason there is negligible chance (1%) of Trump pulling out given he seems up for it, but a marginally less neglible chance (5%) he'd ditch Pence to grab a headline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,114

    You're making quite a courageous assumption about how predictive IQ is of electoral success.
    Charisma is generally the key predictor of electoral success in the USA (and often elsewhere too) but high IQ v charisma elections are often very close e.g. 1960, 2000 and 2016
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    HYUFD said:

    Unlike Murphy however Davidson has already made gains off Sturgeon and the SNP in 2016 and 2017
    And then tanked in the Euros and scuttled off before the Ruth Davidson against Indy Ref II party tanked even more in the GE.
  • HYUFD is a bit embarrassing on Scotland, he lets his agenda cloud his polling posts sadly
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited August 2020

    Mike Pence has gone out from 1.04 to 1.05 today in the GOP VP nominee betting. Is there any obvious reason for this? Trump is 1.01 for comparison.

    I'm not joking, honestly, but there's some on web who think he'll do very badly in the Veep debate(s) because he's effectively alone with a woman.

    Because you know he never meets a woman without his wife present.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    edited August 2020
    Carnyx said:

    I think that's rather assuming too much, not least that there are two SNP candidates. Have you been on the electric [edit] soup again?
    HYUFD's got a bit confused between folk putting themselves forward as candidate and *the* candidate. Don't tell him that there are in fact four currently on the SNP shortlist (there were five until today), he might explode.
  • That's barely a movement worth mentioning and I suspect the reason is someone who thinks there is a fractionally better than 5% chance of Trump ditching him has made a small sum (about £200 so fairly trivial) available at 1.05.

    It's totally understandable people would reason there is negligible chance (1%) of Trump pulling out given he seems up for it, but a marginally less neglible chance (5%) he'd ditch Pence to grab a headline.
    Pence was 1.06 last week and 1.04 this week. A move back to 1.05 is significant when the race is over next week. You'd expect 1.01 or 1.02 at this stage so there is clearly market sentiment that Pence may be replaced, though Pence seems to be active on the campaign trail for Trump right now. I cannot see any news to make Pence less likely to run but I am thousands of miles away; maybe there has been a development.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    nichomar said:

    They are out here but so are family and friends gatherings.
    Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

    It might not go on for ever.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Omnium said:


    Personally I thought she was pretty awful. I'm not a US citizen, but I'd imagine if I were that my allegiances would be on the right of the Democratic party, or on the very non-religious fringe of the Republicans. An obvious floating voter if I was there.

    Joe Biden - directed by 'faith' - I know it works in the US, but total turn-off for me.

    Trump is awful, but in my view he's miles ahead of this Democratic shambles.

    So you're not put off by Trump's wooing of the evangelicals and his claims that Biden "will hurt God". Pence is an active evangelical so it's crass to think only one side does "faith".

    Again, Michelle Obama's speech wasn't directed at Republican voters but at galvanising Democrats into activism as well as voting for Biden/Harris.

    I don't argue the choice is uninspiring in historic terms but how can you call the Democrat ticket a "shambles" set against Trump/Pence?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

    More good news from Rishi's scheme.

    Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

    Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

    It’s a brilliant scheme.

    It has also had the effect of getting even the most irrationally fearful out of their homes. Even @SandyRentool has used it - and he wears radiation equipment just to fill up his car.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    HYUFD said:

    Charisma is generally the key predictor of electoral success in the USA (and often elsewhere too) but high IQ v charisma elections are often very close e.g. 1960, 2000 and 2016
    Kennedy was as bright as Nixon wasn't he? Or was he all tousled hair and touch football?
  • Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

    It might not go on for ever.
    How "young" are you?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited August 2020
    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    LadyG said:

    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

    What's to stop you from simply ignoring the quarantine rules on your return?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,355
    I'm sure all the 'BJ's letterbox comment was actually an attack on prejudice & discrimination' lads will be putting their hands in their pockets.
  • Bamakoup shurley?
    Well, the "ko" in Bamako doesn't rhyme with "coup".
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    rcs1000 said:

    What's to stop you from simply ignoring the quarantine rules on your return?
    What kind of person do you take me for??? A Brexit supporter??
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited August 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Charisma is generally the key predictor of electoral success in the USA (and often elsewhere too) but high IQ v charisma elections are often very close e.g. 1960, 2000 and 2016
    I doubt Nixon had a higher IQ than Kennedy, or at least not materially so. Indeed, it was one of the many things about which he had a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He wasn't thick, and got a good degree, but wasn't an intellectual by any means.

    And it's also the case that "high IQ v charisma" elections often aren't that close at all. Reagan twice stomped fairly heavily on much more traditionally smart candidates.

    Also, I think you would yourself say this isn't a "high IQ v charisma" election. It's a folksy charm charisma v bombastic charisma election - neither man is an intellectual.
  • LadyG said:

    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

    There is a need to self isolate on your return.

    If you’re travelling from an exempt country you will not need to self-isolate. You should check the list of exempt countries before you travel. If you travel from an exempt country but have been in a country that is not exempt within the last 14 days, you will need to self-isolate for the remainder of the 14 days since you were last in a non-exempt country.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-how-to-self-isolate-when-you-travel-to-the-uk/coronavirus-covid-19-how-to-self-isolate-when-you-travel-to-the-uk
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53817886

    More good news from Rishi's scheme.

    Also, when did the IFS become a defender of "equality"? I've noticed it more and more that they are pushing the "poor people matter the most" agenda in everything they do. It's a worthwhile goal but their remit isn't to bang on about equality, it's to try and see how the UK is performing economically and what the fiscal outlook is and what kind of multipliers government policy will have. The eat out scheme must have an absolutely massive economic multiplier, it's an extremely cheap scheme at £500m but it will generate huge economic benefits for the hospitality industry and save far more than that within the furlough scheme.

    Honestly, it actually doesn't matter if poor people can't afford to eat out, they didn't before the virus and they probably won't afterwards. The sector depends on the middle classes going out and spending money on food, booze and tips. It's quite annoying that their insight was "yeah but poor people" and not what kind of multiplier it would have and how good or bad the scheme would be at getting the sector back on its feet. It's not a big deal for me because I have a team of analysts to do that for me, but our research will never see the light of day, where is the public going to learn this stuff from if the IFS is derelicting it's duty to report on the fiscal outlook.

    I give the Eat Out to Help Out two cheers rather than three. There have been some quite unpleasant stories of abuse directed against staff for not having table space for diners and one or two places in coastal towns have opted out of the scheme.

    There's also the question of how much the early week business is affecting the later week and weekend business. My experience of a roast lunch on a Saturday was the venue was exceptionally quiet and the staff confirmed the place was rammed Monday-Wednesday and dead the rest of the week.

    If the total volume of business is simply being redistributed and isn't increasing, I can't quite see the benefit except to the consumer early in the week obviously. If the total volume of business is up 10% on what would normally happen because of the scheme, that's excellent and to be welcome.

    I wonder if the scheme will be prolonged into September but at £500m a month such largesse isn't going to be on the menu forever (pun intended).
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

    It might not go on for ever.
    Just did a walk around leafy north London: Hampstead, Belsize, Primrose Hill.

    A pleasant soft summer evening, and all the restaurants are absolutely RAMMED with people, young and old, enjoying the Eat Out to Help Out. Several places had long queues.

    I did my bit last night with my new girlfriend. Ate her out. Everyone has to help.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Well, the "ko" in Bamako doesn't rhyme with "coup".
    A trifling detail.
  • Considering COVID barely touches the young, and considering the privations we have subjected them to, we can only marvel at the level of their obedience this far in the UK.

    It might not go on for ever.
    I hope it doesn't !!!!!!!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    It’s a brilliant scheme.

    It has also had the effect of getting even the most irrationally fearful out of their homes. Even @SandyRentool has used it - and he wears radiation equipment just to fill up his car.
    I'm not sure that disposable gloves count as radiation equipment!

    And I only remembered that we would get the Rishi discount after we'd sat down and ordered. At an outdoor table. But it was nice to save over a fiver.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    stodge said:

    So you're not put off by Trump's wooing of the evangelicals and his claims that Biden "will hurt God". Pence is an active evangelical so it's crass to think only one side does "faith".

    Again, Michelle Obama's speech wasn't directed at Republican voters but at galvanising Democrats into activism as well as voting for Biden/Harris.

    I don't argue the choice is uninspiring in historic terms but how can you call the Democrat ticket a "shambles" set against Trump/Pence?
    He’s a Trumpton.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    There is a need to self isolate on your return.

    If you’re travelling from an exempt country you will not need to self-isolate. You should check the list of exempt countries before you travel. If you travel from an exempt country but have been in a country that is not exempt within the last 14 days, you will need to self-isolate for the remainder of the 14 days since you were last in a non-exempt country.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-how-to-self-isolate-when-you-travel-to-the-uk/coronavirus-covid-19-how-to-self-isolate-when-you-travel-to-the-uk
    Ta.

    I'm still going even if they do put it on the Index Prohibitorum. I'll either wait out the crisis in the Greece, or when I get back, move to some country cottage for a bloody fortnight. Might be nice in t'Autumn
  • LadyG said:

    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

    You wouldn't do that would you !!!!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    LadyG said:

    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

    Nothing to stop you being a dick. Except your moral duty to your fellow citizens.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I doubt Nixon had a higher IQ than Kennedy, or at least not materially so. Indeed, it was one of the many things about which he had a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He wasn't thick, and got a good degree, but wasn't an intellectual by any means.

    And it's also the case that "high IQ v charisma" elections often aren't that close at all. Reagan twice stomped fairly heavily on much more traditionally smart candidates.

    Also, I think you would yourself say this isn't a "high IQ v charisma" election. It's a folksy charm charisma v bombastic charisma election - neither man is an intellectual.
    J F Kennedy was, I believe, extremely clever. As well as a war hero, charismatic, highly sexed, with a beautiful wife, handsome and young. No wonder Nixon hated him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    LadyG said:

    Question:

    I'm flying out to Greece on Friday. Looks like there's a chance the rising case rate in Greece might make the govt put Greece on the quarantine list (maybe not this week, but more probably next week).

    If HMG pulls down the shutters next week when I am sunning myself by the Aegean what is to stop me, when I want to return, simply crossing a border - to Bulgaria or Turkey, and flying back from there, where there is, as yet, no need to self isolate on return?

    Bulgaria will be easier to enter than Turkey I dare say, but yes, not a lot. Good point.
This discussion has been closed.