TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

Clearly not a spoof but rather a witty way to make the sensible suggestion to "pay France a few million" for their help.

More importantly, where is modern day 'Larien' (between Arundel and Dover on the map)? Could it be Rye?

Probably. It was originally from French La Rive, ‘the strand’ although I don’t know why it would be spelled Larien.

One that I like is "Cales" for Calais, which shows how Englishwomen & men said it BEFORE the pure argot was corrupted by proto-EUism.

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Is it safe to come out yet?

Don't worry, it's been socially acceptable for quite a while now.

Reminds me of the (no doubt apocryphal, sadly):

Straight son texts his mother who lives on the Costa del Sol "I am planning to come out at the weekend Mum"

Mother replies "Good for you dear, well done. We always knew you were gay!"

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

Oh now come on, the EU is all about compromise and good neighbourliness, surely?

If the gave us back Normandy, Brittany, Anjou, Maine, Touraine, Blois and Aquitaine then surely that would be quite sufficient?

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293978744990949376

Which means Biden is doing worse that any challenger than beat an incumbent, and better than any challenger who lost...

The challengers that won were
- Carter (+26.6%)
- Clinton (+19.3%)

So, he's a long way behind those guys. (Although '92 is a bit of a special election given Perot.)

But he's a long way ahead of people who came close - like Romney, and Kerry.

It's also interesting to note that Clinton and Carter both had much narrower wins than their position 82 days from the election would have suggested. (Although the timings of the conventions may also have distorted things somewht.)

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Is it safe to come out yet?

Don't worry, it's been socially acceptable for quite a while now.

Reminds me of the (no doubt apocryphal, sadly):

Straight son texts his mother who lives on the Costa del Sol "I am planning to come out at the weekend Mum"

Mother replies "Good for you dear, well done. We always knew you were gay!"

Many years ago, I did find myself in that sort of situation when the Vicar of the church where I was organist came out to a number of people, including me and his bishop.

My reply was, ‘I’ve always wondered whether everyone knew you were gay and didn’t care, or whether it was just extremely obvious.’

He said of all the responses, that was his favourite because it made him laugh so much.

stodge said:

Evening all

We've had issues before but Robert has always come through for us whether it be hacks, DDOS attacks, server capacity issues, blah, blah, blah.

He is indeed a mensch.

Even if I still can’t log into the main site.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

I've never tried venison, every time I see it on a restaurant menu I'm shocked at the price of venison and I think to myself 'Well that's a little dear.'

It’s never that many bucks, though.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

Oh now come on, the EU is all about compromise and good neighbourliness, surely?

If the gave us back Normandy, Brittany, Anjou, Maine, Touraine, Blois and Aquitaine then surely that would be quite sufficient?

I could live with that.

You could live with them not giving back Gascony?

I'm an incrementalist, I know Gascony would eventually want to join us.

Pagan2 said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

I have a friend like that sadly, He is wfh but desperately wants to get back to the office but he is still at the point he won't have you in the garden even at 2m distance. I have no idea how he will get back to normal. His office is open but optional so its not a can't its a won't because he is too scared

And the end state for some of these people is going to be a really serious OCD-like disorder. The terror of contagion will come to dominate all else, and they'll become hermits.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

I've never tried venison, every time I see it on a restaurant menu I'm shocked at the price of venison and I think to myself 'Well that's a little dear.'

It’s never that many bucks, though.

Doe!

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

Tut tut using that word. You'll be talking about 'watermelon smiles' in a minute.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293978744990949376

Which means Biden is doing worse that any challenger than beat an incumbent, and better than any challenger who lost...

The challengers that won were
- Carter (+26.6%)
- Clinton (+19.3%)

So, he's a long way behind those guys. (Although '92 is a bit of a special election given Perot.)

But he's a long way ahead of people who came close - like Romney, and Kerry.

It's also interesting to note that Clinton and Carter both had much narrower wins than their position 82 days from the election would have suggested. (Although the timings of the conventions may also have distorted things somewht.)

In a way 1976 was a baffling result.

Not that Carter won but that he only won so narrowly.

After Watergate, defeat in Vietnam and the mid 70s recession it should have been as one sided as 1932 was or as 1980 would be.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

I've never tried venison, every time I see it on a restaurant menu I'm shocked at the price of venison and I think to myself 'Well that's a little dear.'

It’s never that many bucks, though.

Atroecious pun.

I’m stag-gered you didn’t like it.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

Tut tut using that word. You'll be talking about 'watermelon smiles' in a minute.

Louis XI didn’t serve watermelons at Picquigny. Only pasties and wine.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

Even if we hadn’t lost Calais, Charles II wou”d have sold it along with a Dunkirk.
That port sailed long ago.

Land engagements on the continent are a crap idea. They've always been a crap idea. Being an island and having a good Navy - good idea.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh, thank God Corbynism was so comprehensively rejected last year.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1293955838491713543

Surely a more logical answer if A levels discriminate against the poorest would be to abolish exams?

What are exams for? In the past they gave useful information to employers but if now they are just gateways (or gatekeepers) to the next stage of education, do we really need them? It is the sort of question you'd have thought Dominic Cummings might have asked at Education. Maybe he did.

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

Tut tut using that word. You'll be talking about 'watermelon smiles' in a minute.

Louis XI didn’t serve watermelons at Picquigny. Only pasties and wine.

That was the dress code ?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh, thank God Corbynism was so comprehensively rejected last year.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1293955838491713543

Surely a more logical answer if A levels discriminate against the poorest would be to abolish exams?

What are exams for? In the past they gave useful information to employers but if now they are just gateways (or gatekeepers) to the next stage of education, do we really need them? It is the sort of question you'd have thought Dominic Cummings might have asked at Education. Maybe he did.

Dominic Cummings asked two questions at Education:

1) Is there anyone here who doesn’t think I’m awesome?

2) How soon can you clear out your desk?

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

Tut tut using that word. You'll be talking about 'watermelon smiles' in a minute.

Louis XI didn’t serve watermelons at Picquigny. Only pasties and wine.

That was the dress code ?

The dress code was Edward IV would agree to wear one crown, not two.

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Not sure whether this is a spoof or not.

https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857

It's just a ploy to get me to rejoin the Tory Party.

The migrant crisis: all Bloody Mary's fault.

I will not support rejoining the EU unless France agrees to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

I’ll settle for Picquigny if I can have a lifetime supply of wine and venison pasties.

Her Maj can keep the ten grand a year.

I've never tried venison, every time I see it on a restaurant menu I'm shocked at the price of venison and I think to myself 'Well that's a little dear.'

It’s never that many bucks, though.

Atroecious pun.

I’m stag-gered you didn’t like it.

That doesn’t fallow from his comment.

Perhaps I did take it too much to hart.

MikeSmithson said:

Benpointer said:

Great picture on the BBC site:



US calls for shower rules to be eased after Trump hair complaints

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53761744

Have you got the link

Image: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/41FB/production/_113919861_hi045965426.jpg

Page:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53761744

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293978744990949376

Which means Biden is doing worse that any challenger than beat an incumbent, and better than any challenger who lost...

The challengers that won were
- Carter (+26.6%)
- Clinton (+19.3%)

So, he's a long way behind those guys. (Although '92 is a bit of a special election given Perot.)

But he's a long way ahead of people who came close - like Romney, and Kerry.

It's also interesting to note that Clinton and Carter both had much narrower wins than their position 82 days from the election would have suggested. (Although the timings of the conventions may also have distorted things somewht.)

In a way 1976 was a baffling result.

Not that Carter won but that he only won so narrowly.

After Watergate, defeat in Vietnam and the mid 70s recession it should have been as one sided as 1932 was or as 1980 would be.

1974 was marked by strong anti-Watergate backlash against the Republicans. By 1976 the GOP was starting to recover, as was the US economy.

As Election Day loomed, doubts about Jimmy Carter were stirring in many minds, including among Democrats, partly due to a few gaffes but mostly because until the nomination campaign he was virtually unknown, and had zero federal elected experience.

On the other hand, Republicans were starting to "come home", and Ford won respect and votes for his dodged campaigning in the face of seemingly long odds. Unfortunately for him, his momentum was slowed - though not stopped - by his "Poland is not dominated by the Soviet Union" gaffe during one of his debates with Carter. Which may have cost him the election; note many analysts concluded after the election that, if the vote had been taken two weeks, Ford would have won.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293978744990949376

Which means Biden is doing worse that any challenger than beat an incumbent, and better than any challenger who lost...

The challengers that won were
- Carter (+26.6%)
- Clinton (+19.3%)

So, he's a long way behind those guys. (Although '92 is a bit of a special election given Perot.)

But he's a long way ahead of people who came close - like Romney, and Kerry.

It's also interesting to note that Clinton and Carter both had much narrower wins than their position 82 days from the election would have suggested. (Although the timings of the conventions may also have distorted things somewht.)

In a way 1976 was a baffling result.

Not that Carter won but that he only won so narrowly.

After Watergate, defeat in Vietnam and the mid 70s recession it should have been as one sided as 1932 was or as 1980 would be.

1974 was marked by strong anti-Watergate backlash against the Republicans. By 1976 the GOP was starting to recover, as was the US economy.

As Election Day loomed, doubts about Jimmy Carter were stirring in many minds, including among Democrats, partly due to a few gaffes but mostly because until the nomination campaign he was virtually unknown, and had zero federal elected experience.

On the other hand, Republicans were starting to "come home", and Ford won respect and votes for his dodged campaigning in the face of seemingly long odds. Unfortunately for him, his momentum was slowed - though not stopped - by his "Poland is not dominated by the Soviet Union" gaffe during one of his debates with Carter. Which may have cost him the election; note many analysts concluded after the election that, if the vote had been taken two weeks, Ford would have won.

another_richard said:

Black_Rook said:

Good news: total Covid patients remaining in UK hospitals are now down below 1,000 for the first time since March 21st. Touchwood, there's still no sign from either these or the triage figures of a resurgence.

They do seem to be counting things differently between England, Wales and Scotland.

And they messed up the Midlands numbers last week.

But as you say good news.

Possibly more good news is that covid symptoms app predictor is now at its lowest level:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Especially so as it suggested a rise in infections in July.

another_richard said:

So that the highest ever awarded grades coincided with nearly 40% of predicted grades being downgraded.

Doesn't that make teacher prediction of grades as reliable as an estate agent's valuation ?

Schools were always going to try it on. I can`t believe how naive Ofqual as been. No, actually I can.

It`s the age old free rider problem, I guess. "Others will definitely push their luck, and If we don`t push our luck we will be disdvantaged mugs, so we better push our luck". School league tables are so important these days.

Black_Rook said:

Pagan2 said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

I have a friend like that sadly, He is wfh but desperately wants to get back to the office but he is still at the point he won't have you in the garden even at 2m distance. I have no idea how he will get back to normal. His office is open but optional so its not a can't its a won't because he is too scared

And the end state for some of these people is going to be a really serious OCD-like disorder. The terror of contagion will come to dominate all else, and they'll become hermits.

Like Julianne Moore in "Safe".

https://youtu.be/p6uwjhkFu1o

Betfair value at very short prices.

Tuesday night on Betfair, Kamala Harris was 1.01 to be Democrat VP nominee even after it had been announced, because of course it is a bet to be settled next week and there is a chance she and/or Biden might withdraw. She still is 1.01.

Joe Biden is 1.02 to be nominee looked like value to keep breathing for a week. Certainly better than 1.01 Harris because she might be replaced by the new guy; indeed, she might herself be the new guy at the top of the ticket.

Donald Trump is 1.02 to be the Republican nominee (£90,000 on offer). Value not to keel over or otherwise withdraw before the Republican convention the week after next?

Mike Pence is 1.06 to be the Republican VP nominee (there was a theory floated some time back that Trump might replace Pence).

Now I'm no @Foxy and maybe these are a fair reflection of the actuarial tables but as a punter, I'd say it is because the big hitters who play at these prices have better (or as good) options on a day-to-day basis. There is no need to tie their money up for even a few days.

Nigelb said:

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

Anabobazina said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

This is clearly a polemic, yet speaks to a truth. There is a portion of the population that is terrified beyond all rationality. This group is not merely composed of the elderly and infirm: it includes some of the young and fit, who are statically more likely to come a cropper by falling down their own stairs than being struck down by Covid.

I agree - some people have been frightened well beyond what logic should indicate - including a handful of young couples I can think of. There is more afoot than fear though - quite a bit of "Ooh look what a good citizen I am" and "We haven`t been out for months you know .. we`re so concerned for the vulnerable people". Yeah ... a lot of that about. They always tell you, of course.

There is a caveat to that though. We know some who get covid go end up with life changing debilitation. I don't know what that figure is and I don't know how it looks across age cohorts as I have never seen that data published.

We seem fairly sure the cfr is between 0.1 and 1.0 percent.

However if the percentage of people who get symptomatic covid and are left with potential morbities is 50% or 10% or 5% matters a lot. I am surprised this data hasnt been published

Principally because no one knows what it is.
Working that out is going to take quite some time - though it seems as though something like a quarter to a third of those infected suffer some kind of post viral syndrome (of greatly varying degrees of severity).

If its as much as a quarter to a third that suffer life altering debilities then to my mind that is far more reason to quell the virus that a 1% cfr.

Working from 50,000 deaths at 1% cfr means 5,000,000 infected even at a quarter thats 1.25 million with life changing affliction

FPT - on "blackface" (in other words, a white person who has darkened their face deliberately as part of dressing up in costume) I'd say it depends.

If it's done to mock or caricature a black person then I'd say that's unacceptable.

If it's a Morris dancer troupe doing it as part of their tradition (it used to be done using boot polish, coal or dirt as a form of disguise for poor men who went begging - the two were closely associated) then I'd say it's fine.

We won't get that distinction, of course.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair value at very short prices.

Tuesday night on Betfair, Kamala Harris was 1.01 to be Democrat VP nominee even after it had been announced, because of course it is a bet to be settled next week and there is a chance she and/or Biden might withdraw. She still is 1.01.

Joe Biden is 1.02 to be nominee looked like value to keep breathing for a week. Certainly better than 1.01 Harris because she might be replaced by the new guy; indeed, she might herself be the new guy at the top of the ticket.

Donald Trump is 1.02 to be the Republican nominee (£90,000 on offer). Value not to keel over or otherwise withdraw before the Republican convention the week after next?

Mike Pence is 1.06 to be the Republican VP nominee (there was a theory floated some time back that Trump might replace Pence).

Now I'm no @Foxy and maybe these are a fair reflection of the actuarial tables but as a punter, I'd say it is because the big hitters who play at these prices have better (or as good) options on a day-to-day basis. There is no need to tie their money up for even a few days.

I think the markets are still in a state of disbelief it's going to be Biden and not Hillary (who's still available to lay at 85!).

I've put quite a bit more in. I'm in "very low-risk savings account" type betting for the next 8 days.

eristdoof said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If PB has been hacked, how can we be assured of the safety of our login details. @MikeSmithson was your SQL db compromised?

Vanilla is a separate platform. I doubt the main site even knows what your login is, not to mention your password.

Thanks for the confirmation. I've changed my password regardless.

You mean speculation, right? Good idea.. even if it hasn't been compromised.

Oh I assumed you knew for sure. No worries.

Luckily for me I use different passwords on every site and I use a password manager, so I am unlikely to have any other accounts compromised.

Can someone educate me re: password manager. How do I get one? Does it cost?" Which one is best? Are there any downsides?

I've been using last pass for well over 10 years. It works well on a PC but has some annoying ideosyncracities on the android version.
www.lastpass.com

Basic is free. Plus is that you only need to remember one password, the negative is that if you use it properly you need to keep on logging in to the password manager.

There are quite a few others out there.

My employer gives us free corporate 1password, though we are free to choose others. These days, even browsers will store (and generate random) passwords. That is one of the beauties of password managers: generating passwords that are random and complex and not the 49th variation on your pet cat's name.

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on "blackface" (in other words, a white person who has darkened their face deliberately as part of dressing up in costume) I'd say it depends.

If it's done to mock or caricature a black person then I'd say that's unacceptable.

If it's a Morris dancer troupe doing it as part of their tradition (it used to be done using boot polish, coal or dirt as a form of disguise for poor men who went begging - the two were closely associated) then I'd say it's fine.

We won't get that distinction, of course.

What about blacking up for poaching?

MikeSmithson said:

Benpointer said:

Great picture on the BBC site:



US calls for shower rules to be eased after Trump hair complaints

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53761744

Have you got the link

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/41FB/production/_113919861_hi045965426.jpg

Benpointer said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If PB has been hacked, how can we be assured of the safety of our login details. @MikeSmithson was your SQL db compromised?

Vanilla is a separate platform. I doubt the main site even knows what your login is, not to mention your password.

Thanks for the confirmation. I've changed my password regardless.

You mean speculation, right? Good idea.. even if it hasn't been compromised.

Oh I assumed you knew for sure. No worries.

Luckily for me I use different passwords on every site and I use a password manager, so I am unlikely to have any other accounts compromised.

Can someone educate me re: password manager. How do I get one? Does it cost?" Which one is best? Are there any downsides?

Don't most browsers have one built in? Safari certainly does, and with iCloud it links across all devices.

How secure it all is worries me at times but then using the same password everywhere or writing a list of all you individual passwords is hardly secure either.

I can't speak for the in browser ones, but professional password managers strongly encrypt all the passwords and store them on your machine. If Last Pass gets hacked, your passwords are safe. If your laptop is stolen, provided you change your master password, the locally encrypeted passwords are as safe as is practically possible. If you want to make sure, you can get Last Pass to automatically change all your passwords including your PB password.

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Honestly, I wasn't actually joking. I'm expecting that this pandemic will indeed create significant numbers of recluses. In the next couple of years one would expect to see this reflected in data such as the proportion of deaths occuring in the home and the percentage of children who are home-tutored, amongst other indicators.

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293978744990949376

Which means Biden is doing worse that any challenger than beat an incumbent, and better than any challenger who lost...

The challengers that won were
- Carter (+26.6%)
- Clinton (+19.3%)

So, he's a long way behind those guys. (Although '92 is a bit of a special election given Perot.)

But he's a long way ahead of people who came close - like Romney, and Kerry.

It's also interesting to note that Clinton and Carter both had much narrower wins than their position 82 days from the election would have suggested. (Although the timings of the conventions may also have distorted things somewht.)

In a way 1976 was a baffling result.

Not that Carter won but that he only won so narrowly.

After Watergate, defeat in Vietnam and the mid 70s recession it should have been as one sided as 1932 was or as 1980 would be.

Personally, I think Ford is one of the most underrated Presidents of the last decade. I'd put him alongside Truman.

Most overrated? JFK and FDR.

Yeh what?

I agree about JFK but FDR was awesome, without him we wouldn't have won WWII.

His support of us when the US was officially neutral was the game changer.

Malmesbury said:

MikeSmithson said:

Benpointer said:

Great picture on the BBC site:



US calls for shower rules to be eased after Trump hair complaints

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53761744

Have you got the link

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/41FB/production/_113919861_hi045965426.jpg

alternatively -

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on "blackface" (in other words, a white person who has darkened their face deliberately as part of dressing up in costume) I'd say it depends.

If it's done to mock or caricature a black person then I'd say that's unacceptable.

If it's a Morris dancer troupe doing it as part of their tradition (it used to be done using boot polish, coal or dirt as a form of disguise for poor men who went begging - the two were closely associated) then I'd say it's fine.

We won't get that distinction, of course.

What about blacking up for poaching?

As in the Black Acts - high Whiggery at its apogee.

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Phobia by its definition is an irrational fear. If they have a good justification then its not an irrational fear and therefore not a phobia

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If PB has been hacked, how can we be assured of the safety of our login details. @MikeSmithson was your SQL db compromised?

Vanilla is a separate platform. I doubt the main site even knows what your login is, not to mention your password.

Thanks for the confirmation. I've changed my password regardless.

You mean speculation, right? Good idea.. even if it hasn't been compromised.

Oh I assumed you knew for sure. No worries.

Luckily for me I use different passwords on every site and I use a password manager, so I am unlikely to have any other accounts compromised.

Can someone educate me re: password manager. How do I get one? Does it cost?" Which one is best? Are there any downsides?

I've been using last pass for well over 10 years. It works well on a PC but has some annoying ideosyncracities on the android version.
www.lastpass.com

Basic is free. Plus is that you only need to remember one password, the negative is that if you use it properly you need to keep on logging in to the password manager.

There are quite a few others out there.

My employer gives us free corporate 1password, though we are free to choose others. These days, even browsers will store (and generate random) passwords. That is one of the beauties of password managers: generating passwords that are random and complex and not the 49th variation on your pet cat's name.

You mean Tabby49 then?

I once heard a security expert say that forcing employees to change their password every month is really counter-productive. Either people just increment a sequential number to their existing password, which is worthless in security terms, or people start writing down the password on a post-it in their drawer.

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

Not picking on you foxy but could you give numbers not percentages. A 25% increase from 4 to 5 is noise a 25% increase from 10 mill to 12.5 mill is concerning

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?

eristdoof said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?

I though trick cyclist was slang for psychiatrist

eristdoof said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?

Rhyming slang for psychiatrist.

eristdoof said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

Isn't a trick-cyclist a slang name for an anti-depressant, or do you use the same nickname for those taking it?

Nearly an anagram of psychiatrist.

If you want a full anagram of psychiatrist, you can have "pithy racist".

:-o

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Black_Rook said:

Northern_Al said:

MaxPB said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I still find it incredible that the England death rate is down to under 10 per day by death date, if this information had been revealed sooner how much more economically confident would individuals and businesses feel? I think the PHE has cost us 2-3% of the recovery and necessitated schemes like eat out to help out, it was such a bad decision not to have an end date of the virus and their protests and trying to force a 60 day measure was awful. Glad that the DoH has stood firm and insisted on the internationally comparable measure rather than something cooked up to make everyone stay home to "protect the NHS".

" “The ideology of zero risk is dangerous,” says Yonathan Freund, a Sorbonne professor and Editor of the European Journal of Emergency Medicine "

Telegraph

The problem is that most of the lay population believes in zero risk. Too many subjects have been affected by this delusion. People no longer use sensible cost-benefit analysis (NICE does, when deciding what NHS procedures to allow).

I don't think so, but the risk of death has been massively overstated for the last 2 to 3 months which has weighed on people's confidence to go out and spend money. As I said, if it was common knowledge that only around 20 people per day were dying of COVID and not 80 as was previously reported people would have been more ready to go out. Not just that the death rate has been stuck at around 50 per day for weeks which is another signal of "this hasn't gone away, we should still stay indoors".

I'm not so sure about this. Most people are not staying indoors - they are out and about. The exception is the old and/or vulnerable who are still being cautious, and have been since mid March. But perhaps the number of deaths would have been sustained at a higher level if this group were not still being cautious.

And there's also a good chance that they'll carry on being this cautious indefinitely. Indeed, quite possibly, permanently.

The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.

Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.

Well, you jest, but I am finding a significant minority of patients habituated into what seems to be Covid-19 induced agoraphobia*.

*literally true as means fear of marketplaces.

Can I ask how many have some sort of justification for that change ?

Do they already have health vulnerabilities or do they know people who have died for example ?

Strangely, it seems very poorly correlated with what I would asses as risk, particularly weighed against the conditions that I see them for. More to do with precovid personality traits.

One of our trick-cyclists told me that the national suicide rate is up 25% on last year.

To be more serious than my other post, that number does not at all surprise me.