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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And we’re back!
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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And we’re back!
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Seem to have lost a few days mind you...
We're back.
There are still a few issues, but we're back.
My forecast, Kamala Harris gets the VP nod.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1293946800886501384?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1293949943456116736?s=19
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1293946451949748225?s=19
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1293943444180799488?s=19
Telegraph
PHE's dishonesty on this key statistic has been appalling and it was designed to keep the public scared and at home to "save the NHS". They still tried to do it by insisting on a 60 day window which is also far too long, the leading Oxford scientist says 21 days is enough to know whether than person died of COVID or not, we used 28 days because it's the international standard in Europe and the other home nations.
( I might just be self projecting an ageist thing here. If I really want to be sure I still write stuff down)
Red wall MP, I wonder how this will go down with her constituents
She's an interesting figure, tending - in the past, at least - to the right on issues like the justice system and policing, and strongly to the left on issues like environmentalism and trade unions.
I wonder how similar Starmer will turn out to be.
Luckily for me I use different passwords on every site and I use a password manager, so I am unlikely to have any other accounts compromised.
Sadly I have been forced to do actual work today in the absence of PB life’s brutal sometimes.
I’m not certain he is right that it was deliberate, but there should certainly be an investigation.
Sevenoaks was also comfortably Tory even in 1997 and 2001, if anything it is Blue Wall not Red Wall
If Trump loses that is also bad news for Boris as it kills off any chance of a swift UK and US FTA as a Biden and Harris administration would focus on doing a deal with the EU first and put us, in Obama's words 'to the back of the queue' if his VP became Potus
First screen:
Confirm "I am not a robot" by ticking this box
(ticked)
Second screen:
"In view of your responses to the previous question, you are unfortunately not eligible to take part in this survey."
Asimov did warn us that the robots would take over one day...
Biden winning and being a catastrophe is also a factor.
Kamala doing something daft is a lesser factor.
KH to be President in 2024? I'd back her at 100, and would think about 20s.
I'd lay all you want at 'will be'
Even to the point of some doctors believing that a non-NICE treatment (!) is actually immoral.
This enables you to simulate human properly.
Last week the system ate my account. This morning it ate PB?
Methinks sinister forces may (or may not) be at work!
(2) The hacker used an old Wordpress account that should been deleted. They then uploaded a plugin that enabled them to upload/delete files in wwwroot. They then deleted the website. They didn't get access to the DB (or indeed any kind of root or shell access).
My vote is for "Cuthbert"
Small sample size I know, but the process seems to have largely done what it was supposed to.
I was not responsible for the predictions though, and I know we did have a lot marked down.
I hope everybody understands if I don’t go into too many details.
They nuked my thread about the looming A Levels fiasco, and it is no coincidence that the hack took place on the day of the A Level results.
But still no data...
How big a bounce (generally not too much) and how long depends upon partly on how the running mate is reviewed and performs, but mostly on other developments.
https://twitter.com/EdwardLeighMP/status/1292781286231289857
Keir is no Corbynite, he's a proper European-style politician.
Edit: I see RobD beat me to it.
Because they didn’t want it.
*Dated from the collapse of the remaining English possessions in France following the battle of Castillon, 1453.
The longer that some people keep on pretending that it's April, are too afraid to go out anywhere unless forced to grocery shop, and keep on sitting at home and adopting other chronic self-isolator habits like disinfecting and quarantining their parcels until they're convinced any contamination has been removed, the harder they are going to find it ever to return to life as it was previously lived.
Fast forward another year or two and there'll still be a significant cohort of the terrified, shuffling into supermarkets once a week at eight o'clock in the morning wearing masks and gloves, and spending the rest of their lives shut up at home. It will have become such an entrenched habit that they'll no longer be able to help themselves.
We've had issues before but Robert has always come through for us whether it be hacks, DDOS attacks, server capacity issues, blah, blah, blah.
Thanks for the memory (sorry, just channelled my inner Bob Hope there).
A quick look at the US polling this evening and yet another poll shows it to be very tight in North Carolina with again Trump ekeing out a 1-point lead (46-45) over Biden. I suppose we'll see more of the impact of the selection of Kamala Harris as Biden's VP in due course.
Sevenoaks is about as Conservative as it gets but it did go Liberal in 1923 when one Ronald Williams won it by 669 votes. He lost the seat in the 1924 election and it's been blue ever since.
I suppose the big shock from the 1997 and 2001 elections was that the Conservative vote share went sub 50%
More importantly, where is modern day 'Larien' (between Arundel and Dover on the map)? Could it be Rye?
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1293955838491713543