politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely
The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones.
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In USA, absentee voting via the mail has indeed been traditionally dominated by seniors as well as by traveling salesmen & the like. Which in most areas indeed tended to benefit Republicans.
However, the balance has shifted due to major expansion of postal voting - including all vote-by-mail elections - in many states, for example WA State.
As for the impact of Trumpsky's screeds on this election, reckon VERY few people who are already voting via the mail will stop doing so - it's just too convenient, and they already trust it.
IF already using it, will tend to say, well IF it's a problem, it's not a problem with MY vote. Certainly zero signs of any such anti-VBM backlash for August 4, 2020 regular WA State Primary.
As of 5pm Monday, statewide ballots returned = 1,272,816 (27.6% of active registration)
> this compares with four years ago day before PDay = 718,962 (17.5%)
One factor NOT present four years ago, is that since 2018 postage is pre-paid for returning election ballots. Meaning voters no longer have to find a stamp before returning their voted ballots. (Another option are ballot drop boxes, which we had in 2016 but have even more now).
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Trump is likely to quit the race in my opinion, based among other things on what he says in his book "Think Big" about knowing when to drop out once you "lose momentum". Everybody thinks they understand him psychologically but while he's obviously a "positive thinker" he isn't the kind to keep banging his head against a brick wall insisting it's soft and about to crumble. That's not quite the same as sitting in a big vehicle powering over obstacles that might daunt many other human beings. If he were the headbanger type, he wouldn't have filed for bankruptcy all those times - he'd have waited for a court to declare his companies bankrupt. "Quitter" ≠ "loser".
If he does stay in the race and loses it, well it's possible he may hold on to his armrests and refuse to budge on 20 January, but I think it's more likely - especially if Biden has clearly bagged 300 ECV regardless of some screaming and shouting in a few states - that Trump will give the finger to the world in general in early November and let poor Mike Pence be the president for 10 weeks. He can frame it to himself as a terribly cool dropping of the mic by the man who has bested everyone if he wishes. In this scenario, before he flips the finger he will have time to grant whatever pardons he wants to grant, but that will only take a few days at most. (The really spectacular one would be Maxwell - but dare he, given the kinds of crime she is accused of?)1 -
On the one hand republicans suppressing their own vote would be wonderful and appropriate, especially if it also has the effect of losing them the Senate. On the other hand, it looks like Trump is really planning to declare himself the winner on the night before the postal votes are counted. Could get quite messy.
BTW, some posters on here have said Trump winning is better than a narrow contested Biden victory. Apart from the fact that anything is better than Trump winning, this ignores the likelihood that a Trump victory will be contested (even if Biden concedes) and lead to more violent protests and clashes.1 -
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AndScott_xP said:
The number of British nationals emigrating to other EU countries has risen by 30% since the Brexit referendum, with half making their decision to leave in the first three months after the vote, research has found.
Analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat shows that migration from Britain to EU states averaged 56,832 people a year in 2008-15, growing to 73,642 a year in 2016-18.
The study also shows a 500% increase in those who made the move and then took up citizenship in an EU state. Germany saw a 2,000% rise, with 31,600 Britons naturalising there since the referendum.
“These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis,” said Daniel Auer, co-author of the study by Oxford University in Berlin and the Berlin Social Science Center.1 -
Anyone getting a bit fed up of headlines in the papers along the lines of “scientist fear that x,y,z will lead to second wave. Modelling suggests that...”?
Now obviously there’s a role for “modelling” in the scientific method, but how about a bit more “evidence from country x,y,z shows that...”?
There surely comes a point when experience (successful or otherwise) from around the world needs to dominate over guesswork
And on the endless debate on here about the efficacy of masks due to “people not wearing them properly”. How about a massive public education and advertising campaign telling people HOW TO EFFING WEAR THEM PROPERLY!”
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London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.0
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Perhaps the next step will be “full national lockdown but only on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays”IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
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USA Dem VP nominee
Kamala Harris is back into a shade of odds-on (so more than a 50 per cent chance of landing the gig). Val Demings has shortened but they can't give Karen Bass away.
Kamala Harris: 1.95
Susan Rice: 5.8
Tammy Duckworth: 13
Elizabeth Warren: 15
Val Demings: 15
Karen Bass: 25
Michelle Obama: 30
Gretchen Whitmer: 40
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 55
Gina Raimondo: 70
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 75
Hillary Clinton: 90
Stacey Abrams: 200
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Trump’s attacks might be preparing the ground for him being defeated but could cause fewer of his backers to actually cast their votes.
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When they demand absolute chastity on Thursdays and issue duck quackers, we’ll know they’re completely Barkering.alex_ said:
Perhaps the next step will be “full national lockdown but only on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays”IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
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Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
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Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.3 -
Welcome Hydrangea. Interesting thought; maybe it was worth reading his book. 'OK, in spite of all I've done, you don't appreciate me. So stuff you. I'm off!' And off to Florida, closes off a section of his resort and sulks.Hydrangea said:Trump is likely to quit the race in my opinion, based among other things on what he says in his book "Think Big" about knowing when to drop out once you "lose momentum". Everybody thinks they understand him psychologically but while he's obviously a "positive thinker" he isn't the kind to keep banging his head against a brick wall insisting it's soft and about to crumble. That's not quite the same as sitting in a big vehicle powering over obstacles that might daunt many other human beings. If he were the headbanger type, he wouldn't have filed for bankruptcy all those times - he'd have waited for a court to declare his companies bankrupt. "Quitter" ≠ "loser".
If he does stay in the race and loses it, well it's possible he may hold on to his armrests and refuse to budge on 20 January, but I think it's more likely - especially if Biden has clearly bagged 300 ECV regardless of some screaming and shouting in a few states - that Trump will give the finger to the world in general in early November and let poor Mike Pence be the president for 10 weeks. He can frame it to himself as a terribly cool dropping of the mic by the man who has bested everyone if he wishes. In this scenario, before he flips the finger he will have time to grant whatever pardons he wants to grant, but that will only take a few days at most. (The really spectacular one would be Maxwell - but dare he, given the kinds of crime she is accused of?)
Clearly he COULD do that, and what's more it would have jthe world's newspapers and TV hanging about outside hoping for an exclusive, or just a something. Would also save him the 'embarrassment' of welcoming Biden into the job, hanging around during the celebrations and being told how many more people turned up than did in 2016.0 -
I totally disagree with that assessment, Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.
You missed out the word ‘dishonest’ between ‘known’ and ‘coward.’0 -
Whataboutery?MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Just because there is 'worse' doesn't excuse 'bad'.1 -
Quite. We should hope for a Biden landslide, so contesting the result will be much harder.kamski said:On the one hand republicans suppressing their own vote would be wonderful and appropriate, especially if it also has the effect of losing them the Senate. On the other hand, it looks like Trump is really planning to declare himself the winner on the night before the postal votes are counted. Could get quite messy.
BTW, some posters on here have said Trump winning is better than a narrow contested Biden victory. Apart from the fact that anything is better than Trump winning, this ignores the likelihood that a Trump victory will be contested (even if Biden concedes) and lead to more violent protests and clashes.1 -
They’re talking about large percentage increases in small numbers as if they were large numbers, and not still relatively small numbers in the overall immigration statistics.IanB2 said:
AndScott_xP said:
The number of British nationals emigrating to other EU countries has risen by 30% since the Brexit referendum, with half making their decision to leave in the first three months after the vote, research has found.
Analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat shows that migration from Britain to EU states averaged 56,832 people a year in 2008-15, growing to 73,642 a year in 2016-18.
The study also shows a 500% increase in those who made the move and then took up citizenship in an EU state. Germany saw a 2,000% rise, with 31,600 Britons naturalising there since the referendum.
“These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis,” said Daniel Auer, co-author of the study by Oxford University in Berlin and the Berlin Social Science Center.8 -
There’s not a lot of uniformity or common sense going on with mask wearing. You see the odd person huffing and puffing up an empty sunny street in them. The paranoid wing of society.
And then you go to a petrol station and hardly anyone at all is wearing them. Seems to be particularly the case at motorway side petrol stations. Big queue inside Clackett Lane on M25 last week, I reckon 20% were observing the rules.
And frankly who can blame these two extreme wings when educated and informed people on this board still can’t decide.
Hint: masks do help in certain settings, primarily by containing the coughs and splutters of the wearer. But the puritans running our policy refused to acknowledge this for months, in part because they appear to rely exclusively on peer reviewed studies rather than making educated guesses on low cost/risk interventions and letting the data follow.
God help us if we ever get an asteroid, if the physicists behave the same way as the biologists. “No Prime Minister/President, there’s not enough past data yet to recommend trying to knock the asteroid off course”.1 -
In this case, it’s a bit like saying ‘you know, drinking cat’s piss sucks but at least it’s better than neat strychnine.’logical_song said:
Whataboutery?MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Just because there is 'worse' doesn't excuse 'bad'.
If we can compare ourselves to Vietnam, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Korea we’ll know the government has done a good job. But we can’t.3 -
Clearly you have never looked at CNN!MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Both countries appear to be consoling themselves with the haplessness of the other, while most of Europe and Asia gets on with the job.0 -
That would at least be intelligible, and probably enforceable.alex_ said:Perhaps the next step will be “full national lockdown but only on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays”
More likely it will be full lockdown on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays, if there is an R in the month, if you are over 50 except if you need an eye test, which are 2 for 1 unless you only have 1 eye, but you can't visit an optician in your local bubble, except on Friday's apart from a Bank Holiday, and you must wear a mask, if you want to.
Michael Gove will be pictured flouting all of these rules on the first Tuesday, before complying on Friday1 -
I thought America had done brilliantly, bravely opening up early and proving everyone wrong with no ill effects.MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
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You need to get out more - pretty much the same moans, groans, etc here where the second wave is well under way.IanB2 said:
Clearly you have never looked at CNN!MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Both countries appear to be consoling themselves with the haplessness of the other, while most of Europe and Asia gets on with the job.0 -
Most of Europe apart from Spain, France...IanB2 said:
Clearly you have never looked at CNN!MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Both countries appear to be consoling themselves with the haplessness of the other, while most of Europe and Asia gets on with the job.1 -
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Just wtf is this ?
Donald Trump: US Treasury should get cut of TikTok deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53633315
Or indeed this ?
Trump’s Latest Move at the Pentagon Is Brazenly Unlawful
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/anthony-tata-pentagon-esper-trump.html
The scofflaw needs kicking out of the White House.0 -
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That was my first impression on reading the postSandpit said:
They’re talking about large percentage increases in small numbers as if they were large numbers, and not still relatively small numbers in the overall immigration statistics.IanB2 said:
AndScott_xP said:
The number of British nationals emigrating to other EU countries has risen by 30% since the Brexit referendum, with half making their decision to leave in the first three months after the vote, research has found.
Analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat shows that migration from Britain to EU states averaged 56,832 people a year in 2008-15, growing to 73,642 a year in 2016-18.
The study also shows a 500% increase in those who made the move and then took up citizenship in an EU state. Germany saw a 2,000% rise, with 31,600 Britons naturalising there since the referendum.
“These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis,” said Daniel Auer, co-author of the study by Oxford University in Berlin and the Berlin Social Science Center.1 -
Loving IDS this morning. That deal he voted for, the one he insisted needed almost no Parliamentary scrutiny, the one he told us was oven ready and good to go; it turns out it’s a bit crap. Whoever would have thought it?9
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Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.
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And that is why Boris ducks interviews.Scott_xP said:1 -
Given the uncertainties there isn't going to be perfection. But our government's haplessness and confusion is unequalled this side of the Atlantic. Matt Lucas nailed it way back.ydoethur said:
Most of Europe apart from Spain, France...IanB2 said:
Clearly you have never looked at CNN!MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Both countries appear to be consoling themselves with the haplessness of the other, while most of Europe and Asia gets on with the job.0 -
When you put apologists for child murder in the House of Lords, perhaps it’s best to be grateful for such front pages ...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1290392544183017473?s=210 -
IDS isnt a Labour MPSouthamObserver said:
Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.0 -
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Nope but he is part of the "Simian elected due to appropriate colour rosette" brigade which the House of Commons is sadly still full of on both sides of the house.Alanbrooke said:
IDS isnt a Labour MPSouthamObserver said:
Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.0 -
I think that is the same interview where he praised Ghislaine Maxwell.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1290507742977970179?s=09
Republicans will still vote for him though. Independents, not so much. The man is a moral vacuum.0 -
Hahaha! Your total impartiality shines through all you write.IanB2 said:
Given the uncertainties there isn't going to be perfection. But our government's haplessness and confusion is unequalled this side of the Atlantic. Matt Lucas nailed it way back.ydoethur said:
Most of Europe apart from Spain, France...IanB2 said:
Clearly you have never looked at CNN!MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
Both countries appear to be consoling themselves with the haplessness of the other, while most of Europe and Asia gets on with the job.0 -
Indeed not.Alanbrooke said:
IDS isnt a Labour MPSouthamObserver said:
Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.
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Tony Blair American styleFoxy said:
I think that is the same interview where he praised Ghislaine Maxwell.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1290507742977970179?s=09
Republicans will still vote for him though. Independents, not so much. The man is a moral vacuum.0 -
regrettably so.eek said:
Nope but he is part of the "Simian elected due to appropriate colour rosette" brigade which the House of Commons is sadly still full of on both sides of the house.Alanbrooke said:
IDS isnt a Labour MPSouthamObserver said:
Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.0 -
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Historians will be fascinated by this period of collective insanity.SouthamObserver said:3 -
I blame those 5G towers!Jonathan said:
Historians will be fascinated by this period of collective insanity.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Not everyone knows how to operate an oven.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Johnson is vey good at putting things in the oven.alex_ said:
Not everyone knows how to operate an oven.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Not always in the right oven though!nichomar said:
Johnson is vey good at putting things in the oven.alex_ said:
Not everyone knows how to operate an oven.SouthamObserver said:0 -
When I heard this on the radio I immediately thought of Godfather II.Nigelb said:Just wtf is this ?
Donald Trump: US Treasury should get cut of TikTok deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53633315
'Young man, I hear you and your friends are stealing goods. But you don't even send a dress to my house. No respect! You know I've got three daughters. This is my neighborhood. You and your friends should show me some respect. You should let me wet my beak a little.'1 -
Smith failed to notice that the EU owns the oven.noneoftheabove said:
I blame those 5G towers!Jonathan said:
Historians will be fascinated by this period of collective insanity.SouthamObserver said:0 -
At least insanity suggests some hope of being treated, stupidity tends to be for life (unless you believe in the Brain Force pills).Jonathan said:
Historians will be fascinated by this period of collective insanity.SouthamObserver said:0 -
I’m old enough to remember when the possibility of Brexit-induced medicine shortages were project fear ...
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1290438167082995712?s=21
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Not yetAlanbrooke said:
IDS isnt a Labour MPSouthamObserver said:
Ian Duncan Smith and co are blessed with the kind of certainty that only the truly ignorant and terminally incurious possess.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Idiotic Conservative MPs not bothering to read the Withdrawal Agreement they signed isn't surprising given that followed their insane act of stupidity by voting for a known coward of poor judgement and towering self-regard to be their leader, and PM.0 -
Morning, brilliant name for a political blog - I assume you turn tory if they put aluminium sulphate on you.Hydrangea said:Trump is likely to quit the race in my opinion, based among other things on what he says in his book "Think Big" about knowing when to drop out once you "lose momentum". Everybody thinks they understand him psychologically but while he's obviously a "positive thinker" he isn't the kind to keep banging his head against a brick wall insisting it's soft and about to crumble. That's not quite the same as sitting in a big vehicle powering over obstacles that might daunt many other human beings. If he were the headbanger type, he wouldn't have filed for bankruptcy all those times - he'd have waited for a court to declare his companies bankrupt. "Quitter" ≠ "loser".
If he does stay in the race and loses it, well it's possible he may hold on to his armrests and refuse to budge on 20 January, but I think it's more likely - especially if Biden has clearly bagged 300 ECV regardless of some screaming and shouting in a few states - that Trump will give the finger to the world in general in early November and let poor Mike Pence be the president for 10 weeks. He can frame it to himself as a terribly cool dropping of the mic by the man who has bested everyone if he wishes. In this scenario, before he flips the finger he will have time to grant whatever pardons he wants to grant, but that will only take a few days at most. (The really spectacular one would be Maxwell - but dare he, given the kinds of crime she is accused of?)
Donald was 13 years saner in 2007. Also, with deals you can withdraw from one in the hope you will in future make an even bigger one - not so with presidencies. Also he must fear a backlash after the presidency - unless he accepts asylum from Putin people will be out to get him legally and perhaps extra-legally. Postponing the reckoning for 4 years must look very tempting.0 -
As a "Briton" who got German citizenship this year, the reason why many of us have rushed to do this is that Germany does not normally allow dual citizenship. An exception is made for citizens of other EU countries. Applying for German citizenship in the next years would involve giving up British citizenship if successful, whereas those of us who have already done it can keep both. Numbers will definitely go down again. Also the process of getting citizenship is not much harder than getting leave to stay. 2 months after handing in a form and supporting documents and paying about 200 euros I got my citizenship.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was my first impression on reading the postSandpit said:
They’re talking about large percentage increases in small numbers as if they were large numbers, and not still relatively small numbers in the overall immigration statistics.IanB2 said:
AndScott_xP said:
The number of British nationals emigrating to other EU countries has risen by 30% since the Brexit referendum, with half making their decision to leave in the first three months after the vote, research has found.
Analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat shows that migration from Britain to EU states averaged 56,832 people a year in 2008-15, growing to 73,642 a year in 2016-18.
The study also shows a 500% increase in those who made the move and then took up citizenship in an EU state. Germany saw a 2,000% rise, with 31,600 Britons naturalising there since the referendum.
“These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis,” said Daniel Auer, co-author of the study by Oxford University in Berlin and the Berlin Social Science Center.
I also know people who spend part of their lives in Germany who have formalised their status here, where previously they had just been here as EU citizens (with an EHIC card)
I'm not sure those figures are evidence of much. But I do know health professionals who had been considering moving TO the UK who ruled it out after the Brexit vote and May's later moronic comments about only wanting British doctors in the NHS.5 -
Six weeks is interesting. I would have thought it prudent for us to already have built up a greater stock of medicines than that in a contagious pandemic, presumably the powers that be havent even considered it.SouthamObserver said:I’m old enough to remember when the possibility of Brexit-induced medicine shortages were project fear ...
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1290438167082995712?s=210 -
Time for me to wheel out this again...DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that is why Boris ducks interviews.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/11516695888089866240 -
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Was @DavidL ’s son getting exam “results” today? - the SQA process on R4 is coming in for some criticism - and no transparency on “the attainment gap”.0
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Six months not six weeks I would say.noneoftheabove said:
Six weeks is interesting. I would have thought it prudent for us to already have built up a greater stock of medicines than that in a contagious pandemic, presumably the powers that be havent even considered it.SouthamObserver said:I’m old enough to remember when the possibility of Brexit-induced medicine shortages were project fear ...
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1290438167082995712?s=21
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I follow PB articles via an RSS reader (because I am massively old fashioned, obviously!) - the feed seems to have stopped on the 28th of July. Anyone else seen this, or know how to fix it?0
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He is but he's in Liverpool with his girlfriend and we haven't heard from him yet.CarlottaVance said:Was @DavidL ’s son getting exam “results” today? - the SQA process on R4 is coming in for some criticism - and no transparency on “the attainment gap”.
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If it goes wrong, the cheerleaders will say its a fast moving situation, unfair to blame anyone, what can we do? But that was fair until April, for events in the summer onwards we should have been doing far more contingency planning.rottenborough said:
Six months not six weeks I would say.noneoftheabove said:
Six weeks is interesting. I would have thought it prudent for us to already have built up a greater stock of medicines than that in a contagious pandemic, presumably the powers that be havent even considered it.SouthamObserver said:I’m old enough to remember when the possibility of Brexit-induced medicine shortages were project fear ...
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1290438167082995712?s=21
What is the real cost of keeping a few months extra supply until we have a vaccine? Tiny, all it needs is a bit of planning and direction.
I see the government is briefing today schools will definitely go back on time - all that means is they wont have bothered creating a back up plan if they dont.0 -
Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃0 -
Which is cowardly, but again shows hes smarter than Trump at least because he is self aware.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And that is why Boris ducks interviews.Scott_xP said:0 -
Well, yes.alex_ said:Anyone getting a bit fed up of headlines in the papers along the lines of “scientist fear that x,y,z will lead to second wave. Modelling suggests that...”?
Now obviously there’s a role for “modelling” in the scientific method, but how about a bit more “evidence from country x,y,z shows that...”?
There surely comes a point when experience (successful or otherwise) from around the world needs to dominate over guesswork
And on the endless debate on here about the efficacy of masks due to “people not wearing them properly”. How about a massive public education and advertising campaign telling people HOW TO EFFING WEAR THEM PROPERLY!”
Trouble is that governments around the world, with notable exceptions, spent several months telling everyone they were either unnecessary or ineffective.
And have only just come round to the idea themselves.
Developing consistent messaging requires a consistent message...0 -
It is really noticable just how much he says he doesnt know anything about something, even if it's an acknowledged fact like person x being arrested, even if he himself has spoken of it before. Its fascinating and terrifying, not least because a lot of people apparently consider him to be honestTheuniondivvie said:0 -
Good, old Duncan, I'd forgotten Labourhame existed.StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
Presumably vacillators over independence being shown the door includes the 40% plus of current SLab voters who'd vote Yes.
1 -
Thermopylae just isn’t good enough for China...
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/12904684815158927370 -
Ah. Mr Hothersall is the author, now why did I guess from the excerpt you cited?StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
0 -
But is he being dishonest or disturbed? I am increasingly not sure. There was a comment down thread that in 2007 he was 13 years saner. I think even in the last year his deterioration has been very marked. Doesn't mean he is not a liar of course, its just I think that's the least of it.kle4 said:
It is really noticable just how much he says he doesnt know anything about something, even if it's an acknowledged fact like person x being arrested, even if he himself has spoken of it before. Its fascinating and terrifying, not least because a lot of people apparently consider him to be honestTheuniondivvie said:0 -
Part of what makes Trump such a compelling character is the unknowable nature of his motivation. There is zero political benefit to him in any way to comment on GM's legal travails. Yet he does and at some length. Why? Is he just mentally ill? Is it is as simple as that?Scott_xP said:
Biden is going to be so boring if he wins.1 -
Scott_xP said:
scientists did not warn, a group of scientists did. Should their advice have been taken over that of other scientists giving advice? We may well think so, some will have said as much at the time, but its not as implied a situation where they simply ignored scientists. Heck, there was a brief period of attacks for listening too much to scientists and not applying any judgement themselves.Scott_xP said:
3 -
We wax lyrical on US current affairs. Seems a little churlish to deny the Americans reciprocal rights.MarqueeMark said:
Might I suggest that if CNN wants to report on a "troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic", it looks to the USA instead?IanB2 said:London (CNN): The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart.
1 -
I do hope so, re Mr Biden. It would be such a pleasant change.Dura_Ace said:
Part of what makes Trump such a compelling character is the unknowable nature of his motivation. There is zero political benefit to him in any way to comment on GM's legal travails. Yet he does and at some length. Why? Is he just mentally ill? Is it is as simple as that?Scott_xP said:
Biden is going to be so boring if he wins.0 -
The capacity crisis in Houston hospitals is well and truly over. They are down to using their regular ICU capacity now - no surge beds in use.
That they are doing this be having 12% of Covid patients leaving hospital by the morgue is less comforting.1 -
What is Donald Trumps inner monologue? Is there one?kle4 said:
It is really noticable just how much he says he doesnt know anything about something, even if it's an acknowledged fact like person x being arrested, even if he himself has spoken of it before. Its fascinating and terrifying, not least because a lot of people apparently consider him to be honestTheuniondivvie said:
I am just waiting for the moment he jumps the shark that is jumping the shark that is jumping over another shark...0 -
They also want to get rid of pro Brexit Scots too from their supportersTheuniondivvie said:
Good, old Duncan, I'd forgotten Labourhame existed.StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
Presumably vacillators over independence being shown the door includes the 40% plus of current SLab voters who'd vote Yes.0 -
"He", in fairness, not "they", I think.HYUFD said:
They also want to get rid of pro Brexit Scots too from their supportersTheuniondivvie said:
Good, old Duncan, I'd forgotten Labourhame existed.StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
Presumably vacillators over independence being shown the door includes the 40% plus of current SLab voters who'd vote Yes.
It'll be interesting how representative Mr Hotersall turns out to be in SLAB, of which, for instance, one prominent figure is a keen supporter of Trident and (I presume) its successor system being based in the Clyde estuary.0 -
Indeed. And all my immigrant relatives (lots) in the UK are accelerating getting UK citizenship, if they don't have it already.kamski said:
As a "Briton" who got German citizenship this year, the reason why many of us have rushed to do this is that Germany does not normally allow dual citizenship. An exception is made for citizens of other EU countries. Applying for German citizenship in the next years would involve giving up British citizenship if successful, whereas those of us who have already done it can keep both. Numbers will definitely go down again. Also the process of getting citizenship is not much harder than getting leave to stay. 2 months after handing in a form and supporting documents and paying about 200 euros I got my citizenship.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was my first impression on reading the postSandpit said:
They’re talking about large percentage increases in small numbers as if they were large numbers, and not still relatively small numbers in the overall immigration statistics.IanB2 said:
AndScott_xP said:
The number of British nationals emigrating to other EU countries has risen by 30% since the Brexit referendum, with half making their decision to leave in the first three months after the vote, research has found.
Analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat shows that migration from Britain to EU states averaged 56,832 people a year in 2008-15, growing to 73,642 a year in 2016-18.
The study also shows a 500% increase in those who made the move and then took up citizenship in an EU state. Germany saw a 2,000% rise, with 31,600 Britons naturalising there since the referendum.
“These increases in numbers are of a magnitude that you would expect when a country is hit by a major economic or political crisis,” said Daniel Auer, co-author of the study by Oxford University in Berlin and the Berlin Social Science Center.
I also know people who spend part of their lives in Germany who have formalised their status here, where previously they had just been here as EU citizens (with an EHIC card)
I'm not sure those figures are evidence of much. But I do know health professionals who had been considering moving TO the UK who ruled it out after the Brexit vote and May's later moronic comments about only wanting British doctors in the NHS.0 -
https://twitter.com/ChrisLu44/status/1290447077529530368Alistair said:The capacity crisis in Houston hospitals is well and truly over. They are down to using their regular ICU capacity now - no surge beds in use.
That they are doing this be having 12% of Covid patients leaving hospital by the morgue is less comforting.
0 -
PS Indeed, and even more suicidal as anti-Brexit Scots are an even higher majority than pro-indy ones, on recent polling (and you are NOT allowed to count DKs on the side that suits you).HYUFD said:
They also want to get rid of pro Brexit Scots too from their supportersTheuniondivvie said:
Good, old Duncan, I'd forgotten Labourhame existed.StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
Presumably vacillators over independence being shown the door includes the 40% plus of current SLab voters who'd vote Yes.0 -
Incidentally if anyone is wondering how lying Covid bullshit merchant Alistair Haimes is getting on here he is from 13th of July
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1282614918622121984
And here is what that lagged dataset now looks like up to the 13th of July
I used to wonder if he was just stupid but I now realise he is deliberately malicious. Hoping from lagged data set to lagged data set to pretend it's always trending strongly downwards.1 -
Much like politics in England, being blue or red can be quite successful. Turning yellow, not so much.IshmaelZ said:
Morning, brilliant name for a political blog - I assume you turn tory if they put aluminium sulphate on you.Hydrangea said:Trump is likely to quit the race in my opinion, based among other things on what he says in his book "Think Big" about knowing when to drop out once you "lose momentum". Everybody thinks they understand him psychologically but while he's obviously a "positive thinker" he isn't the kind to keep banging his head against a brick wall insisting it's soft and about to crumble. That's not quite the same as sitting in a big vehicle powering over obstacles that might daunt many other human beings. If he were the headbanger type, he wouldn't have filed for bankruptcy all those times - he'd have waited for a court to declare his companies bankrupt. "Quitter" ≠ "loser".
If he does stay in the race and loses it, well it's possible he may hold on to his armrests and refuse to budge on 20 January, but I think it's more likely - especially if Biden has clearly bagged 300 ECV regardless of some screaming and shouting in a few states - that Trump will give the finger to the world in general in early November and let poor Mike Pence be the president for 10 weeks. He can frame it to himself as a terribly cool dropping of the mic by the man who has bested everyone if he wishes. In this scenario, before he flips the finger he will have time to grant whatever pardons he wants to grant, but that will only take a few days at most. (The really spectacular one would be Maxwell - but dare he, given the kinds of crime she is accused of?)0 -
Hard to draw any other conclusion: Duncan wants to expel the 40% who support independence, the 10% who support Brexit, and the 30% who supported Corbyn. That’ll leave the Edinburgh South branch happy as Larry, sipping tea and munching on scrumptious scones with lashings of cream and jam. All the other SLab constituencies will consist of a man and his dog.Theuniondivvie said:
Good, old Duncan, I'd forgotten Labourhame existed.StuartDickson said:Much gnashing of teeth in the posher factions of Scottish Labour:
’The opportunities of failure’
... the abject failure of Scottish Labour presents an opportunity to knock down and rebuild a party which can once again be relevant and speak for the people it seeks to represent.
... here in Scotland we seem doomed to remain a third wheel in a politics in which the Tories pose as champions of the union and the SNP pose as champions of the left. Oh for some robust scrutiny that would expose both those poses for the tissue-thin propaganda that they are. Scottish Labour could and should be filling both of those roles, instead of vacillating on one and burying the other in ideology rather than action.
... every failure presents an opportunity, and that surely must mean Scottish Labour presents the greatest opportunity in Scotland right now, because it has become the byword for political failure.
... We need to become a Starmer backing, EU positive, anti nat party. Vacillators over independence should be shown the door. Lexiteers should be ushered to the exit.
... We’re going to lose the next Scottish election. Badly.
https://labourhame.com/the-opportunities-of-failure/
A very heartening read! 😃
Presumably vacillators over independence being shown the door includes the 40% plus of current SLab voters who'd vote Yes.2 -
This is better...StuartDickson said:A very heartening read! 😃
Sometimes even Scottish politics, typically a land of one-eyed special pleading and holier-than-thou earnestness, can amuse. In an otherwise forgettable, miserable year special mention must be made of those nationalists who have concluded that Nicola Sturgeon has forsaken the independence cause to which she has dedicated her political life. You heard it from them first: Ms Sturgeon is a unionist mole dedicated to hauling the independence movement back from the brink of final victory.
Let us not be coy: much of this is immensely entertaining. True, these people are not confined to cyberspace for they walk among us too and there is a risk of encountering them even in these socially distanced days. Nevertheless, there is joy to be found here and while we are always supposed to say we do not mean to sneer at such folk, sometimes we do. The zoomers are revolting, because of course they are.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/the-greatest-threat-to-the-snp-comes-from-the-snp-itself-zmqr8zv9x3 -
Given who Edmund Pettus was I'm surprised it hasn't been renamed already.HYUFD said:0 -
That was almost exactly the date when SAGE DID pivot to a lockdown strategy, which the gov't implemented over the next 9 or so days.kle4 said:Scott_xP said:
scientists did not warn, a group of scientists did. Should their advice have been taken over that of other scientists giving advice? We may well think so, some will have said as much at the time, but its not as implied a situation where they simply ignored scientists. Heck, there was a brief period of attacks for listening too much to scientists and not applying any judgement themselves.Scott_xP said:2 -
Or even a message that last longer than a week....Nigelb said:
Well, yes.alex_ said:Anyone getting a bit fed up of headlines in the papers along the lines of “scientist fear that x,y,z will lead to second wave. Modelling suggests that...”?
Now obviously there’s a role for “modelling” in the scientific method, but how about a bit more “evidence from country x,y,z shows that...”?
There surely comes a point when experience (successful or otherwise) from around the world needs to dominate over guesswork
And on the endless debate on here about the efficacy of masks due to “people not wearing them properly”. How about a massive public education and advertising campaign telling people HOW TO EFFING WEAR THEM PROPERLY!”
Trouble is that governments around the world, with notable exceptions, spent several months telling everyone they were either unnecessary or ineffective.
And have only just come round to the idea themselves.
Developing consistent messaging requires a consistent message...
0 -
0
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I was lucky enough to be born with dual citizenship, but given the anti-Europe messages that come out of the UK Little England these days, I no longer identify as British and use my Irish passport when a passport is requested.kamski said:As a "Briton" who got German citizenship this year, the reason why many of us have rushed to do this is that Germany does not normally allow dual citizenship. An exception is made for citizens of other EU countries. Applying for German citizenship in the next years would involve giving up British citizenship if successful, whereas those of us who have already done it can keep both. Numbers will definitely go down again. Also the process of getting citizenship is not much harder than getting leave to stay. 2 months after handing in a form and supporting documents and paying about 200 euros I got my citizenship.
I also know people who spend part of their lives in Germany who have formalised their status here, where previously they had just been here as EU citizens (with an EHIC card)
I'm not sure those figures are evidence of much. But I do know health professionals who had been considering moving TO the UK who ruled it out after the Brexit vote and May's later moronic comments about only wanting British doctors in the NHS.1 -
-
You can only claim reality is not reality for so long. At some point it hits. We are reaching that point.Scott_xP said:Project Fear...
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1290567606135644161
2
