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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today
The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%.
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Solely for those who can’t post via the main site and rely on the Vanilla forums.
And Trump has the benefit of incumbency this time round. I suspect he plans on using it to his advantage.
The rest of us know damn well he is.
Headline - 5
7 Days - 5
Yesterday - 2
My local tourist town in Almeria having gone through the whole of the first wave with only 4 cases now has at least 20 all from a local discotheque which locals have warned for weeks was not enforcing the rules properly. Similar cases are happening all over the costas now. looks like the UK government action was ahead of the curve this time.
I'm afraid the only way to beat Trump is to, in electoral terms, drive a large ballot-shaped spike through his heart. Repudiate him so publicly, so convincingly and in such numbers he will have no option but to "accept" it.
I suspect the Transition period between Trump and Biden will be very fraught - Trump will fall back on Executive Orders and I also suspect we will see a "scorched Earth" policy in terms of destruction of documents and records so Biden's team will enter to a smoking ruin on 20/1/21.
There will of course be any number of memoir written by the Trump team which will further denigrate his administration and drag what's left of his reputation through the gutter.
However, the only way to beat a populist is to show them they aren't popular.
Well according to the anti vaxxers maskers.
Today, we'll concentrate on Germany, Italy, Spain and Estonia.
In Germany, the CDU/CSU continue to enjoy a massive advantage over the other parties with 38% in the last two polls. The Greens have recovered their clear second place with 18-21% with the SPD on 14-15%, AfD and Linke are both on 8-9% and FDP on 5-6%.
In Italy, the collapse of Lega has been remarkable - from polling in the mid 30s, the latest IXE poll has them on 23%, only just in front of the Social Democrats on 22%, M5S on 17% and FdL on 15% with Forza on 8%. The election isn't until 2023 but it looks as though FdL will make some big gains.
Over to Spain and two very contrasting polls in recent days. The Invymark poll put the governing PSOE on 29% with PP on 21%, VOX on 14%, United Podemos on 12% and Citizens on 8%.
However, the NC Report poll has PSOE on 26% and PP on 25%, VOX on 15%, UP on 11% and Citizens on 6% so much closer.
Finally, to Estonia, whose politics I know we all follow avidly. The opposition Reform Party is on 31% in the latest Norstat poll but that's down three with the governing Centre Party on 24% and the Conservatives up two to 19%. The Social Democrats are on 9% and Estonia 2000 is on 7%.
The current Government is broadly Eurosceptic while the centre-right opposition (as distinct from the governing Conservatives who are in coalition with a centre-left party) is pro-EU.
Yes, I'm confused too....
In fact he's seemingly shied away so far from several such 'peak' actions , on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else.
Could Trump go as far as to blame the GOP establishment for the defeat and try to set up his own "third" party on the model of a Ross Perot or a George Wallace and try to endorse a "pro-Trump" candidate for 2024? Could such a candidate outpoll the main GOP candidate in places like Oklahoma, Kentucky or Tennessee?
That kind of split in the GOP hands the White House to the Democrats for 8-12 years.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-rape-allegation-sexual-abuse-jess-phillips-a9650116.html
"Fuhrer, although nodding to Don Jnr.'s German heritage is too reminiscent of Adolf Hitler and "Leader" hints at Gary Glitter!
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1289934217841844230
I had coffee with some OC teachers (also part time lifeguard) yesterday. Seemed entirely normal and polite, intelligent people. Firmly in the Trump camp.
Comment was “we all know he says stupid stuff on Twitter but he’s not like that in person”. Their son works for the GOP and has met him several times.
Small numbers, but I was surprised. This may not be the slam dunk that people over here who rely on the media might think it is 🙀
He negotiates by brinkmanship
It’s quite exhausting, but once you look at his actions through that lens a lot more makes sense, especially in foreign affairs
That said, slam dunk it certainly isn't.
My point, though, was that sensible, thoughtful, intelligent people support Trump. That’s not the impression you sometimes get from the media.
An MP pending investigation...
The story today therefore is she spoke to the police, who took immediate action, while the Tory Party again took no action at all.
I’m not going to get worked up over this one if they can’t name him though. It would be different if and when they can though.
It would seem that removing the whip temporarily would be the expedient thing to do, so the Tories have chosen instead to do the obstinate thing.
The Cummings precedent...
That is to be avoided
It is creditworthy that they are willing to take political flak to prevent that
Whip removed.
Whip restored before crunch vote.
Convicted.
That's the precedent...
I suppose being suprised by this is in the camp of not understanding what happened in 2016. There was no mass switching from Dem to GOP. There was no massive wave of White Working Class revolt.
There was mostly just Dem voters staying at home.
The majority of people who voted for Romney voted for Trump.
I'd also like to think as a broad brush MPs of all parties would be treated identically in a similar situation.
Fiona Onasanya only lost the whip when she was convicted.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1289946270426169344?s=21
In the latest case, a fellow Conservative MP first raised the woman’s allegation with Mark Spencer, the chief whip, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the House of Commons, after speaking to the alleged victim a month ago.
The woman also spoke to Spencer directly. However, no action was taken. A spokesman for Spencer said: “The chief whip takes all allegations of harassment and abuse extremely seriously and has strongly encouraged anybody who has approached him to contact the appropriate authorities, including parliament’s independent complaints and grievance scheme.”
It is understood that Spencer does not believe a sexual assault was reported to him in his conversation with the complainant, but acknowledges that she reported abusive behaviour and threats.
We all know how the court of public opinion works, even before the #MeToo era.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1289515757160677376?s=19
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1289521460701048833?s=09
Accused - whip suspended
May needed his vote - whip restored
Convicted - whip withdrawn
Unedifying, but just politics
That's the danger - when people are forced back into the indoor spaces but still want the same social interaction they had outdoors in the summertime.
Isn’t the correct process that minor things such as workplace harrasment (as opposed to major things like rape), should be investigated by the Parliamentary authorities who employ staff, rather than by the party?
Scott xp has been derailed by his hatred of Boris and Cummings and his posts demonstrate that, while others can and do show less prejeudice and contribute to debate much better
It was simply meant to be a single data point that may or may not be of use to people
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/prediction
Understand that police are still investigating. BUT aren't they going to keep on investigating even after the alleged offender is named publicly?
Do recognize imperative to be cautious re: comments for sake of OGH & PB. Esp. as I do NOT know the actual legal standards & parameters.
Of course in US name would already be public record - NOT saying that's better or worse than UK standard, just different.
Actually charging someone with a crime is a different thing, and something that hasn't happened in this matter, yet.
Don't think you can fault C on his observation, as he put it in context. Did NOT simply say they were Orange Co teachers, but that they were also Republicans with family member on Trumpsky's staff.
Their votes this Fall will NOT keep California from giving it's EVs to Biden. BUT there are folks like them in all the battleground states, who where Trumpsky is concerned are willing to accentuate the positive (however defined) and eliminate the negative (however massive).
Do NOT think these votes will re-elect The Donald. But they MUST be factored into the equation.
Trump can, of course, still win.
Lots of Americans feel that too many previous administrations followed immigration policies that were better for big business than for them. (Of course, the current administration is the same, in that there remain essentially zero penalties to employers for actually employing illegal immigrants, thus meaning that demand for illegal immigration remains unchanged.)
Similarly, lots of Americans are disillusioned by a political system that seems to emphasise processes over results. And little wonder, the bottom 40% of Americans have seen little economic progress over the last quarter century. Who can blame them for saying that the current system doesn't work (for them) and they want someone who is their man, and who will cast aside convention and work for them.
And Trump can combine this with portraying the Democrats as in hock to "defund the police" and to the culture wars. (Plus, it helps that Biden is not the most... dynamic... of candidates.)
If you want to keep America America, and you want to ensure that the man in the White House cares about you, then you need to vote Trump.
Together these can get Trump re-elected.
The problem Trump has, though, is that his victory margin was narrow in 2016 and his natural instinct is to seek out those who love him. Feeling down? Go stand in a stadium and bask in the adoration of others. That might make him feel better, but I'm not convinced it helps win voters over at the margin. (And I'm not convinced it helps that much with turnout of his base either...)
If the economy turns around, and if CV19 is seen to be under control, then Trump should probably be favourite. But there are just 93 days to go now. It's possible, of course it's possible, but Trump's path is narrowing every day.