politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls suggest that whoever Biden chooses for the VP slot i

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

I am not a follower of US politics, although thanks to Trump, it is hard to avoid it these days.

Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jul/29/exeter-chiefs-will-keep-name-logo-but-ditch-their-mascot-big-chief-rugby-union

The club’s board met on Wednesday afternoon following a petition from the fans’ pressure group Exeter Chiefs 4 Change which demanded an end to the club’s use of “harmful imagery and branding”, which included a Native American headdress, saying there was no place for it in a predominantly white British environment.

I don't really follow club rugby, but I'm adopting the Chiefs as my team.

When does the Haka get cancelled?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jan/23/the-haka-isnt-yours-stop-performing-it

FTPT

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Politico.com - Louie Gohmert, who refused to wear a mask, tests positive for coronavirus

The Texas Republican received the diagnosis during a pre-screening procedure at the White House on Wednesday morning.

Rep. Louie Gohmert — a Texas Republican who has been walking around the Capitol without a mask — has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to multiple sources.

Gohmert was scheduled to fly to Texas on Wednesday morning with President Donald Trump and tested positive in a pre-screen at the White House. The eighth-term Republican told CNN last month that he was not wearing a mask because he was being tested regularly for the coronavirus.

"[I]f I get it," he told CNN in June, "you'll never see me without a mask."


Reps. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Fla.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), Ben McAdams (D-Utah) and Tom Rice (R-S.C.) have tested positive for the virus, along with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

In May, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) turned down the administration's offer of rapid testing for the Capitol. Some lawmakers — mostly Republicans — decline to use face coverings while in the building.

Gohmert attended Tuesday's blockbuster House Judiciary Committee hearing with Attorney General William Barr in person, where lawmakers were seated at some distance from one another.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Apparently he also waited for Barr and spoke directly to him as they walked into the room.

Looks like Abrams or Rice would be the best pick for Biden then in terms of winning votes

Beibheirli_C said:

I am not a follower of US politics, although thanks to Trump, it is hard to avoid it these days.

Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.

NO - whomever he picks, her name ID will go up VERY quickly.

HYUFD said:

Looks like Abrams or Rice would be the best pick for Biden then in terms of winning votes

Except the large number of "who the hell is this?" responses tell you that it's also a risk to choose a complete unknown.

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Apparently he also waited for Barr and spoke directly to him as they walked into the room.

So long as no-one was wearing masks, they should be safe.

(c) Nerys Hughes, 2020

You can't even make this up now.

https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144

Alistair said:

FTPT

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Politico.com - Louie Gohmert, who refused to wear a mask, tests positive for coronavirus

The Texas Republican received the diagnosis during a pre-screening procedure at the White House on Wednesday morning.

Rep. Louie Gohmert — a Texas Republican who has been walking around the Capitol without a mask — has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to multiple sources.

Gohmert was scheduled to fly to Texas on Wednesday morning with President Donald Trump and tested positive in a pre-screen at the White House. The eighth-term Republican told CNN last month that he was not wearing a mask because he was being tested regularly for the coronavirus.

"[I]f I get it," he told CNN in June, "you'll never see me without a mask."


Reps. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Fla.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), Ben McAdams (D-Utah) and Tom Rice (R-S.C.) have tested positive for the virus, along with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

In May, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) turned down the administration's offer of rapid testing for the Capitol. Some lawmakers — mostly Republicans — decline to use face coverings while in the building.

Gohmert attended Tuesday's blockbuster House Judiciary Committee hearing with Attorney General William Barr in person, where lawmakers were seated at some distance from one another.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

How to burn your sources in one easy lesson.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

The stories I'm hearing about this election and Trump aren't from PB they are from various american newspapers and columnists.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I hope you're not including me in that number. I don't want to see the US collapse, and I am sure it won't - but I don't think it would do the US or the rest of the world any harm for it not be able to operate with impunity any more.

https://twitter.com/GerryConnolly/status/1288557352002650120

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

I am not a follower of US politics, although thanks to Trump, it is hard to avoid it these days.

Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.

NO - whomever he picks, her name ID will go up VERY quickly.

The best policy would be to pick the best person for the job. This triangulation of 'I'm wizened so they have to be young, 'I'm male so they have to be female', 'I'm white so they have to be black', 'I'm popular with hispanics so they have to be popular with Koreans' is not only horribly patronising, it's also going to result in a poor candidate with a big list of things they aren't, but very little that they are.

Washington State August 2020 Primary

King County (Seattle + east & south burbs) ballot returns
as of noon Wednesday, 7.29 (PDay -6)
> 210,687 = 15.5% of total active voter registration = 1.4 million
> note that four years ago at PD-6, King Co returns were 11.1% of active reg
> further note that in this election (as this fall) return postage for election ballots is pre-paid; this was NOT the case in 2016.

My own feeling is that turnout will be slightly higher than August 2016, but not a much as above numbers might suggest. BECAUSE four years ago there were folks who had marked the ballots BUT were still hunting around for a stamp - NOT an impediment this year.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Apparently he also waited for Barr and spoke directly to him as they walked into the room.

So long as no-one was wearing masks, they should be safe.

(c) Nerys Hughes, 2020

You can't even make this up now.

https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144

I think he caught it from that table he kept banging.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I hope you're not including me in that number. I don't want to see the US collapse, and I am sure it won't - but I don't think it would do the US or the rest of the world any harm for it not be able to operate with impunity any more.

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." - Lord Acton

Which is why Empires are inherently evil, or at very least are on the road to hell UNLESS they can (or are forced to) change their ways.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

I am not a follower of US politics, although thanks to Trump, it is hard to avoid it these days.

Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.

NO - whomever he picks, her name ID will go up VERY quickly.

The best policy would be to pick the best person for the job. This triangulation of 'I'm wizened so they have to be young, 'I'm male so they have to be female', 'I'm white so they have to be black', 'I'm popular with hispanics so they have to be popular with Koreans' is not only horribly patronising, it's also going to result in a poor candidate with a big list of things they aren't, but very little that they are.

Picking "best person" is NOT as clear-cut as you might think. Especially since some folks who look great on paper for the Presidency or Vice Presidency (John Q. Adams & Herbert Hoover, Henry Wallace & Dick Cheney spring to mind) turn out to be BAD choices.

The Peter Principle is real deal - most especially in politics.

I am sure that's a very valid point, but you're surely more likely to pick a good'un if your choice isn't between the two survivors of your triangulation process.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

I am not a follower of US politics, although thanks to Trump, it is hard to avoid it these days.

Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.

NO - whomever he picks, her name ID will go up VERY quickly.

The best policy would be to pick the best person for the job. This triangulation of 'I'm wizened so they have to be young, 'I'm male so they have to be female', 'I'm white so they have to be black', 'I'm popular with hispanics so they have to be popular with Koreans' is not only horribly patronising, it's also going to result in a poor candidate with a big list of things they aren't, but very little that they are.

Picking "best person" is NOT as clear-cut as you might think. Especially since some folks who look great on paper for the Presidency or Vice Presidency (John Q. Adams & Herbert Hoover, Henry Wallace & Dick Cheney spring to mind) turn out to be BAD choices.

The Peter Principle is real deal - most especially in politics.

Dick Cheney ever looked good ?

Andy_JS said:

"The voters who are still backing Trump"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html

"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."

Trump needs that to be 28 of 33

Andy_JS said:

"The voters who are still backing Trump"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html

"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."

That’s literally 33 respondents ?
Not the most statistically significant sample (& your link is labelled an opinion piece rather than news).

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Apparently he also waited for Barr and spoke directly to him as they walked into the room.

So long as no-one was wearing masks, they should be safe.

(c) Nerys Hughes, 2020

You can't even make this up now.

https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144

I think he caught it from that table he kept banging.

What's his view on alien lizards running the world banking system?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GerryConnolly/status/1288557352002650120

Surely there's a room in the White House with on tap bleach?

I can imagine some corners of the twittersphere going crazy if he, literally, picks a "Karen".

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

"The voters who are still backing Trump"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html

"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."

That’s literally 33 respondents ?
Not the most statistically significant sample (& your link is labelled an opinion piece rather than news).

Plus losing a third of his swing voters doesn't sound like good news for Trump.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

No_Offence_Alan said:

Andy_JS said:

"The voters who are still backing Trump"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html

"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."

So a third of the voters who preferred Trump to Obama now prefer Biden?
Ridiculously small sample of course.

Some evidence of three things (at least) happening at once:

1. Suburban, college-educated Republicans & Rep leaners who voted Trump 2016 planning to vote Biden 2020

2. Never Trumpers, mostly Republican also conservative Libertarians & Independents who did NOT vote Trump OR Clinton in 2016, planning to vote for Biden 2020.

3. Rural, exurban, blue-collar, rust-belt traditional Democratic voters who voted Trump in 2016 but planning to vote Biden 2020.

Very strong evidence for #1 and pretty strong for #2; less strong for #3 and clearly this movement will NOT be as large as #1; but could make difference in number of battle-ground states such as MI, PA, WI.

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

Given the doubts over Biden's mental state and the assumption he will only do one term his VP pick in all likelihood will be his successor (perhaps even before 2024) which will surely be the most important consideration.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

To follow on from tonight's poll, a quick look back at the late Tuesday numbers from Maine which has only 4 EC votes but are split.

The state wide number has Biden up by 12 (Clinton won it by 3 last time). Clinton won ME-1 by 15 and Biden is up by 20 while Trump won ME-2 by 11 and now Biden is up by three.

In Washington State, Trump has turned a 16-point deficit into a 34-point deficit.

rottenborough said:

A new poll finds President Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden tied in Georgia, a traditionally red state that has not gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992.

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Trump and Biden each at 47 percent support, with 3 percent supporting Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 3 percent undecided.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/509547-trump-and-biden-tied-in-georgia-poll

One major question for Biden campaign is, what percent of resources (esp. money) to put into GA and similar states beyond the obvious battleground states?

Expanding the map makes Trumpsky & GOP fight on more fronts, but also risks diluting Biden's resources - just ask Hillary, 1n 2016 she wasted time & money on Texas that would have been MUCH better spent in Wisconsin.

Whatever strategic decision Uncle Joe makes, methinks that close presidential race is good news for Democratic US Senate challenger Jon Ossoff, running to unseat incumbent Republican David Perdue.

felix said:

nichomar said:

Sky news suggesting Spain’s increase in infections could be because of inbound tourism!

Is there a shred of evidence for that? None of the detail I've seen could begin to explain it.

There isn't a shred of evience that holidaying in Spain is safer than holidaying in the UK either. Didn't stop the Spanish PM claiming it though.

dodrade said:

Given the doubts over Biden's mental state and the assumption he will only do one term his VP pick in all likelihood will be his successor (perhaps even before 2024) which will surely be the most important consideration.

But that is predicated on Biden winning, so you are back to trying to pick a veep who will help a win.

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

May be a shill - or rather a hack - but yours truly shills/hacks for the DEMOCRATS. It ain't MY government, bub - it's Trumpsky's

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

stjohn said:

Off topic.

I had nothing to do the other day. So I thought - I know what I can do! Unsubscribe from all those emails I get that I don’t want, don’t read and don’t know why I even receive them. So I did it. And it worked. No more unsolicited emails. They’ve stopped.

Now I’ve got even less to do ....

Talk about being hoisted on yer own petard!

Funnily enough, my next job is to sort out the fireworks box in the cellar. Where’s my lighter?

The US’s population-adjusted CV death rate has today overtaken that of France.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

May be a shill - or rather a hack - but yours truly shills/hacks for the DEMOCRATS. It ain't MY government, bub - it's Trumpsky's

Ah I see like under Obama who I was believe from your side of the fence who when taking office the USA was sitting at rank 20 of the world index of press freedom and during his tenure managed to help that slide to 41 by his actions against press freedoms....those democrats .

The world press index is compiled by Reporters without borders as no doubt you will want to cast aspersions on their credibility

Re: Quarantining post travel.

Why don’t they test twice, as proposed - but only give tested individuals their two test results after the 2nd test?

That gets around the issue of failed compliance and false reassurance from a single, initial negative test.

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

May be a shill - or rather a hack - but yours truly shills/hacks for the DEMOCRATS. It ain't MY government, bub - it's Trumpsky's

Ah I see like under Obama who I was believe from your side of the fence who when taking office the USA was sitting at rank 20 of the world index of press freedom and during his tenure managed to help that slide to 41 by his actions against press freedoms....those democrats .

The world press index is compiled by Reporters without borders as no doubt you will want to cast aspersions on their credibility

Look at the specific points I made. Which are based on personal experience NOT surfing the web.

glw said:

Malmesbury said:

state_go_away said:

tlg86 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jul/29/exeter-chiefs-will-keep-name-logo-but-ditch-their-mascot-big-chief-rugby-union

The club’s board met on Wednesday afternoon following a petition from the fans’ pressure group Exeter Chiefs 4 Change which demanded an end to the club’s use of “harmful imagery and branding”, which included a Native American headdress, saying there was no place for it in a predominantly white British environment.

I don't really follow club rugby, but I'm adopting the Chiefs as my team.

When does the Haka get cancelled?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jan/23/the-haka-isnt-yours-stop-performing-it

Are we now saying that we cannot mix cultures at all and we all have to have separate pristine cultures ? Sounds at best a rather miserable policy and at worse something the BNP /Islamic jihadis or Nazis would agree with.

I like the fact that, in that Guardian article, the journalist didn't ask an actual Maori about who should/shouldn't perform the Haka.

I've read about this before and as I recall the biggest beef Maori people* had was not that the Haka was done, it is part of New Zealand culture so it's not like the All Blacks are doing something alien, but that it used to be done so badly.

* Generally speaking, I'm sure there are some people who think that only Maori person should perform it.

NZ (at least since I was there 30 years ago) has an official policy of biculturism. Maori language and culture was compulsory in schools for everyone.

While certainly there are some Maori grievances, it is worth noting that in law, from the very foundation of the colony, that Maori had equal rights, including the right to vote. A stark contrast to many other settler colonies.

LadyG said:

EPG said:

LadyG said:

rottenborough said:

Andy_JS said:

"The voters who are still backing Trump"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html

"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."

"They conflate the Black Lives Matter protesters with the rioters attacking federal buildings and retail shops. They don't want historic monuments torn down. And they dismiss defunding the police as ridiculous."

The Left playing right into Trump's hands. They should shut the f up until late November.

Drinks with a 50-something Remainer swing voter. Generally centre-Left. Considerable loathing for Official BLM. Absolute loathing for unvoted statue toppling. I did not ask for an opinion, it was presented.

I wonder how much of this is supporting the Tory vote. Brits do not like mayhem.

The 50-something left-wing remainer who hates BLM is another great character. Are they also a Cornish yachtsman with a meth lab?

You can ignore them if you like, but these people VOTE.

For what it is worth he works in musical theatre and lives in SE London. He doesn't "hate BLM", he hates the Official BLM - and for good reason: they are avowed Marxists, want to defund the police, abolish prisons, dismantle the nuclear family, etc

With musical theatre in the doldrums was he working for an Albanian taxi company?

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

May be a shill - or rather a hack - but yours truly shills/hacks for the DEMOCRATS. It ain't MY government, bub - it's Trumpsky's

Ah I see like under Obama who I was believe from your side of the fence who when taking office the USA was sitting at rank 20 of the world index of press freedom and during his tenure managed to help that slide to 41 by his actions against press freedoms....those democrats .

The world press index is compiled by Reporters without borders as no doubt you will want to cast aspersions on their credibility

Look at the specific points I made. Which are based on personal experience NOT surfing the web.

Your points were its happening under a Trump regime and gerrymandering and voter supression wasn't so bad.

My points were backed by research by international groups who collate data and summarise it into an indexed measure, internation groups with good reputations.

Your points are based on personal anecdote and come from a known partisan source.

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

eek said:

WhisperingOracle said:

As a *first* point, though, whether or not BIden wins, despite his shortcomings, will make an enormous difference to the future health and well-being of American democracy.

Only if the size of Biden's win is large enough that Trump's attempts to cast doubt on the result fail.

It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...

NO - realize many PBers would like to see US democracy collapse into a pile of ruble, but IF 2000 couldn't do it, 2020 won't either.

I suspect most already think US democracy has been more notable for its abscence over the years when you consider all the voter suppression and gerry mandering that goes on.

US vote suppression is a problem BUT is also WAY overblown, often for political reasons but mostly due to Democratic distrust following 2000. For example, turns out lot of "suppression" occurs in jurisdictions where voting is controlled by & large by Democrats.

As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.

Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.

Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.

Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.

Don't just take my opinion for it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Wasn't planning to! But please note, have my own sources of info on this topic.

And the democracy index I linked is pretty widely respected and probably has a better oversight than a partisan shill.

How can you call out the uk when things like this happen

"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."

And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.

source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml

May be a shill - or rather a hack - but yours truly shills/hacks for the DEMOCRATS. It ain't MY government, bub - it's Trumpsky's

Ah I see like under Obama who I was believe from your side of the fence who when taking office the USA was sitting at rank 20 of the world index of press freedom and during his tenure managed to help that slide to 41 by his actions against press freedoms....those democrats .

The world press index is compiled by Reporters without borders as no doubt you will want to cast aspersions on their credibility

Look at the specific points I made. Which are based on personal experience NOT surfing the web.

Your points were its happening under a Trump regime and gerrymandering and voter supression wasn't so bad.

My points were backed by research by international groups who collate data and summarise it into an indexed measure, internation groups with good reputations.

Your points are based on personal anecdote and come from a known partisan source.

You are almost as big a liar as Trumpsky. Certainly a truth twister.

Go soak yer fool head.