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Given the data above, he would be wise to pick the candidate with the most name recognition which means either Harris or Warren.
It's possible that a close Biden win may actually make things worse than a clear cut Trump victory...
The club’s board met on Wednesday afternoon following a petition from the fans’ pressure group Exeter Chiefs 4 Change which demanded an end to the club’s use of “harmful imagery and branding”, which included a Native American headdress, saying there was no place for it in a predominantly white British environment.
I don't really follow club rugby, but I'm adopting the Chiefs as my team.
When does the Haka get cancelled?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jan/23/the-haka-isnt-yours-stop-performing-it
I'd hope that the American system might show its resilience if Trump tries to overstay his welcome, but of course that isn't guaranteed.
The Good news is over the last 3 days Houston hospitals admitted 577 Coronavirus positive patients but 691 former Cornoavrius patients left the hospital so they are no longer looking at bed shortages.
The bad news is 12% of the people who left hospital did so by dying.
Their overall Hospitalisation fatality rate is now 7.9% and rising 0.1% day steadily for the last 2 weeks.
(c) Nerys Hughes, 2020
https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144
"Not worth a bucket of warm piss." - that was verdict of 2-term VP John Nance Garner; he was talking about AFTER the election, but same applies BEFORE.
Real VP imperative is: DO NO HARM
It makes it more difficult for Biden to damn Trump as dishonest.
In the face of disaster they do this!
King County (Seattle + east & south burbs) ballot returns
as of noon Wednesday, 7.29 (PDay -6)
> 210,687 = 15.5% of total active voter registration = 1.4 million
> note that four years ago at PD-6, King Co returns were 11.1% of active reg
> further note that in this election (as this fall) return postage for election ballots is pre-paid; this was NOT the case in 2016.
My own feeling is that turnout will be slightly higher than August 2016, but not a much as above numbers might suggest. BECAUSE four years ago there were folks who had marked the ballots BUT were still hunting around for a stamp - NOT an impediment this year.
The Peter Principle is real deal - most especially in politics.
Which is why Empires are inherently evil, or at very least are on the road to hell UNLESS they can (or are forced to) change their ways.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html
"And, each month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way."
'Those who attempt to rise above nature invariably fall beneath it'.
Sherlock Holmes.
Nothing to do with your quote, it just reminded me of it for some reason.
Not the most statistically significant sample (& your link is labelled an opinion piece rather than news).
As for gerrymandering, well, UK's version is more decorous, perhaps, but not non-political or non-partisan, not by a long shot.
Re: gerrymandering, note that WA State decades ago adopted a Redistrict Commission system, to take the process out of the direct control of the legislature and thus whomever controlled it.
Under WA state law, Redistricting Commission is created after every census, with one voting member from each legislative caucus (state house & senate Dems & Reps) with non-voting chair. Result is incumbent protection, with a handful of legislative & congressional districts contested, rest safe for one party or the other.
Of course over time demographic, economic, political, electoral trends will re-shape this status quo. BUT the redistricting process itself is still controlled - albeit indirectly - by the legislature, but by leader of both parties in (more or less) concert.
The Left playing right into Trump's hands. They should shut the f up until late November.
Although I suspect Biden wont worry about that this year.
Ridiculously small sample of course.
The latest Monmouth University survey finds Trump and Biden each at 47 percent support, with 3 percent supporting Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 3 percent undecided.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/509547-trump-and-biden-tied-in-georgia-poll
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
1. Suburban, college-educated Republicans & Rep leaners who voted Trump 2016 planning to vote Biden 2020
2. Never Trumpers, mostly Republican also conservative Libertarians & Independents who did NOT vote Trump OR Clinton in 2016, planning to vote for Biden 2020.
3. Rural, exurban, blue-collar, rust-belt traditional Democratic voters who voted Trump in 2016 but planning to vote Biden 2020.
Very strong evidence for #1 and pretty strong for #2; less strong for #3 and clearly this movement will NOT be as large as #1; but could make difference in number of battle-ground states such as MI, PA, WI.
I've been having a look at the ONS data from - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/deathregistrationsandoccurrencesbylocalauthorityandhealthboard
According to them, COVID19 deaths, all settings, England -
Week 28 (ends 10th July) - 344
Week 29 (ends 17th July) - 284
Contrasted with https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
PHE, COVID19 deaths, all settings, England -
Week 28 (ends 10th July) - 511
Week 29 (ends 17th July) - 381
Only got the data for PHE for those two weeks - by day of death. But it looks like a 30% difference.
A busy night for US polling - the daily Rasmussen approval still has Trump at -9 but it's better than many of the other polls.
The national numbers with Rasmussen put Biden up 48-42 and CNBC has Biden up 51-42. No meaningful crosstabs while Economist/YouGov keeps Biden ahead by 49-40.
The crosstabs look similar to last week:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0nx7ztz02j/econTabReport.pdf
Biden leads by a point among men but 14 among women. The $50k -$100k income group has Trump up 47-45 but Biden is well ahead in other income groups.
Huge leads for Biden in the North East and West - he's also seven points up in the Midwest (49-42) and a point up in the South (46-45).
That runs a bit contrary to the CNN story claiming the Midwest was swinging back behind Trump - it's possible for all the claims about "shy Trump" supporters, the truth is they are a diminishing but increasingly vociferous minority.
The enthusiasm for their man is plainly evident but the numbers may not be and given the tiny margins by which Trump carried some states last time he cannot afford any significant diminishing of his base.
How can you call out the uk when things like this happen
"The blend of federal agents -- drawn from the CBP, US Marshals Service, and ICE -- rolled onto the streets in unmarked vehicles. Out of these vehicles sprang agents dressed like soldiers, wearing no markings clearly identifying the officers or the agency they represented. Residents were taken off the street to unknown locations for questioning. They were later released and given no paperwork that informed them who had detained them or for what reason."
And your government tries to defend it in court. When it happens in places like China we denounce that sort of thing.
source of quote
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200724/14025644974/court-blocks-federal-officers-attacking-arresting-reporters-covering-protests-portland.shtml
The state wide number has Biden up by 12 (Clinton won it by 3 last time). Clinton won ME-1 by 15 and Biden is up by 20 while Trump won ME-2 by 11 and now Biden is up by three.
In Washington State, Trump has turned a 16-point deficit into a 34-point deficit.
Expanding the map makes Trumpsky & GOP fight on more fronts, but also risks diluting Biden's resources - just ask Hillary, 1n 2016 she wasted time & money on Texas that would have been MUCH better spent in Wisconsin.
Whatever strategic decision Uncle Joe makes, methinks that close presidential race is good news for Democratic US Senate challenger Jon Ossoff, running to unseat incumbent Republican David Perdue.
Some people always believe their own freedom to swing their fist does NOT end at someone else’s face after all.
I had nothing to do the other day. So I thought - I know what I can do! Unsubscribe from all those emails I get that I don’t want, don’t read and don’t know why I even receive them. So I did it. And it worked. No more unsolicited emails. They’ve stopped.
Now I’ve got even less to do ....
* Generally speaking, I'm sure there are some people who think that only Maori person should perform it.
I wonder how much of this is supporting the Tory vote. Brits do not like mayhem.
This is the opposite. It is a deadening puritanism. It sees sin everywhere.
It will not last, just as Puritanism did not last, but in the interim it can do terrible damage.
America is particularly prone to these mad fits of self-hating monasticism. See Prohibition.
The world press index is compiled by Reporters without borders as no doubt you will want to cast aspersions on their credibility
Why don’t they test twice, as proposed - but only give tested individuals their two test results after the 2nd test?
That gets around the issue of failed compliance and false reassurance from a single, initial negative test.
(I saw 2 people in MAGA face masks yesterday...)
For what it is worth he works in musical theatre and lives in SE London. He doesn't "hate BLM", he hates the Official BLM - and for good reason: they are avowed Marxists, want to defund the police, abolish prisons, dismantle the nuclear family, etc
While certainly there are some Maori grievances, it is worth noting that in law, from the very foundation of the colony, that Maori had equal rights, including the right to vote. A stark contrast to many other settler colonies.
My points were backed by research by international groups who collate data and summarise it into an indexed measure, internation groups with good reputations.
Your points are based on personal anecdote and come from a known partisan source.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8569583/The-Phantom-Opera-ends-34-year-West-End-run.html
As a centre-righty I am quite happy for lefties like you to loftily ignore these voices. It means you will lose. Yet again.
Go soak yer fool head.