politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share

Monksfield said:

Interesting results in Newcastle under Lyme. UKIP making gains from Lab in the old pit villages of Chesterton and Silverdale. A green elected in the university ward of Keele. Poor results for Labour and LD.

Is the Llin Golding who lost in Silverdale the former MP, or a daughter or granddaughter?

Milliband needs to say something meaningful to the WWC and he needs to say it soon.

But Labour need to win over Middle England!!!! They need to talk about cutting the deficit and being pro-business!!!!!!111

Solihull constituency:

Con: 10702 - 38.29%
LD: 6364 - 22.77%
Grn: 3864 - 13.82% (7/8)
Lab: 3209 - 11.48%
UKIP: 2875 - 10.29% (4/8)
Res: 937 - 3.35% (3/8)

It looks as if Barnet is in no danger after all.

@Neil Rahman heading to second preferences. He's ahead on first pref I have no idea by how far though, turnout 48%.

Labour also came first in Simon Hughes' Bermondsey seat, which is a real shock.

Barking and Dagenham's last ward just declared. Everything Labour again.
A Lab to UKIP defector missed a seat by 12 votes.

MaxU said:

HurstLlama said:

"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."

Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..

I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.

I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.

I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.

Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.

AndyJS said:

Apparently Labour unexpectedly won most votes in the Enfield Southgate constituency.

An area with a high number if renters voting for Labour? Who would have thought it...

If only Tories would stop cosseting private landlords and help working people

Cllr Joshua Peck ‏@CllrJoshuaPeck 1m
Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.

Phil Briscoe ‏@philbriscoe 7m
Looks like first round counting is nearly complete in Tower Hamlets and it will go to a second round - which means Biggs should snatch it

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Cllr Joshua Peck ‏@CllrJoshuaPeck 1m
Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.

Out of interest what happened about the supposed breach of electoral law here? Is that something that will be revisited later or was it all a hoax?

Supposed posters showing people how to vote in electoral booths. Rossettes in the stations

Yep that was the stuff. I saw the mentions of it last night and wondered if there wass going to be any further action?

Some of these London councils are setting new records for inefficient counting. They ought to spend a few days in Sunderland.

Next said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Cllr Joshua Peck ‏@CllrJoshuaPeck 1m
Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.

Out of interest what happened about the supposed breach of electoral law here? Is that something that will be revisited later or was it all a hoax?

Since the polls had already closed, and the information provided insignificant, I'm not sure what breach occurred?

IIRC last time someone commented on postal votes prior to the end of the polling day. Not good.

Sorry Next you misunderstand. I was not talking about on PB I was talking about the stuff supposedly involving Lutfur Rahman

Ah see you got that :-) Apologies.

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Cllr Joshua Peck ‏@CllrJoshuaPeck 1m
Coming to the end of counting the first round. Lutfur Rahman clearly in the lead. Possibly by too big a margin.

Out of interest what happened about the supposed breach of electoral law here? Is that something that will be revisited later or was it all a hoax?

Supposed posters showing people how to vote in electoral booths. Rossettes in the stations

Yep that was the stuff. I saw the mentions of it last night and wondered if there wass going to be any further action?

Probably, up to Biggs' supporters to pursue it I guess !

It did strike me as a a possible attempt to stitch him up. No one could seriously think they could actually do that and get away with it for real.

Interesting result in Maidstone in terms of popular votes:

Con 10,384 (27.58%)
UKIP 9,891 (26.27%)
LD 9,271 (24.62%)
Lab 4,029 (10.70%)
Green 2,132 (5.66%)
Ind 1,943 (5.16%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Con -15.91%
UKIP +25.10%
LD -11.36%
Lab +1.19%
Green +1.75%
Ind -0.55%

AndyJS said:

Interesting result in Maidstone in terms of popular votes:

Con 10,384 (27.58%)
UKIP 9,891 (26.27%)
LD 9,271 (24.62%)
Lab 4,029 (10.70%)
Green 2,132 (5.66%)
Ind 1,943 (5.16%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Con -15.91%
UKIP +25.10%
LD -11.36%
Lab +1.19%
Green +1.75%
Ind -0.55%

Those are council wide figures , I think the parliamentary seat figures are pretty different .

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

Apparently Labour unexpectedly won most votes in the Enfield Southgate constituency.

An area with a high number if renters voting for Labour? Who would have thought it...

If only Tories would stop cosseting private landlords and help working people

I sympathise with renters but private landlords are not all the devil incarnate ( I am not one by the way). Don't forget many will be trying to find a return to supplement pensions monstrously rogered by G Brown, 0.5% interest rates, and QE, and will see themselves,not unreasonably, as having been victimised themselves by circumstance. Not all of them, true, but a good proportion I bet.

It is also the case that historically millions of Irish/Scots/Welsh/Northerners have moved to the Smoke for work. Maybe some need to think about moving the other way for accommodation. Before I get lambasted for the mere suggestion, I am fully aware it's a wrench, not for everyone etc etc but the reverse was true, and I left my home town far behind in my youth myself.

Also given London wages ever considered BTL in cheaper parts of the country as a way of building equity?

London is an amazing place with unique benefits nowhere else in the UK can match ( or even the world), it ain't going to have Huddersfield or Port Talbot's house prices. More can be done to encourage building I'm sure, but vilifying landlords many of who are merely seeking a return on 40 years of hard work denied them by crap returns elsewhere isn't going to help. Sorry.

The message from the council elections in a yellow box:

┌─────────────────────────────┐
│                             │
│                             │
│          Keep Cam           │
│                             │
│        And Carry On         │
│                             │
│                             │
│                             │
└─────────────────────────────┘

HurstLlama said:

MaxU said:

HurstLlama said:

"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."

Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..

I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.

I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.

I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.

Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.

A decline from 23% to 17% is a substantial decline in anyone's language so no I was not being sarcastic. I do not quite understand what your beef is with me. As it happens I actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections (although not in the locals). For some reason you seem to have got me down as a Lib-Dem.

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 54m

My lab/con battleground GE marginal seats poll will be at http://lordashcroftpolls.com at130pm tomorrow. Pls register for this and all my research

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

@DPJHodges: Labour 1891 seats, Tories 1259, Lib Dems, 404. Ukip 157. Take that, Westminster elite...

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Anything north of 27% will show it up really.

17% national equivalent for UKIP in these seats means they should be taking 12-14% of actual votes once you account for the location and the lower number of seats contested. That's clearly not what happened. The experts have got this one wrong.

MaxU said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxU said:

HurstLlama said:

"...UKIP's support is actually declining quite substantially."

Of course it is, as yesterday's elections will show. By next May UKIP will be collecting less than 3% of the vote share. By the same token we can see the Lib Dems powering ahead, picking up support from right, left and centre. We can expect the Lib Dems to be challenging for the top spot in the GE. It is obvious that any party that is growing in membership, support and vote numbers is in fact in terminal decline, whilst a party that is shedding members, support and votes is a growing force in UK politics..

I never said UKIP would decline to 3% in the GE.

I have no idea why you have suddenly brought the Lib Dims into the mix. I was in no way making a comparison and certainly hold no candle for that bunch of wishy-washy, all things to all men fence sitters.

I am not sure therefore what accounts for this reaction on your part to an observation which is based simply on the conclusion that can legitimately be made from the PNS calculation used in every local election I can remember. The fact that they appear to be making more significant seat gains than last year despite a falling PNS may reflect that their vote is becoming more efficiently distributed- ultimately this process will be very good news to UKIP.

Mr. U., You did say, did you not, "... UKIPs support is actually declining quite substantially"? If you didn't or you meant it sarcastically I apologise.

A decline from 23% to 17% is a substantial decline in anyone's language so no I was not being sarcastic. I do not quite understand what your beef is with me. As it happens I actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections (although not in the locals). For some reason you seem to have got me down as a Lib-Dem.

My dear fellow, I have no beef with you at all. I am very sorry if from my remarks you think I have. I do find the idea that these elections show UKIP's support is in decline rather amusing, especially when it comes from OGH (whose own preferred party really is in decline).

You have my apology. Shall we leave it at that.

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Strange how the latest stats on Romania and Bulgaria only came out today, after the vote, and after the premature round of smug 'nobody came' articles have been knocked out and printed.

All strangely reminiscent of the previous accessions where the establishment decides that it was all a to do about nothing after 3 months, and then all the fruitcake predictions come true.

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

Out of interest, how are you counting the votes Andy - do you just take the highest candidate for each party in multi-member wards, or are you counting all candidates?

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Labour 1891 seats, Tories 1259, Lib Dems, 404. Ukip 157. Take that, Westminster elite...

Labour certainly does well out of the FPTP system, with a 31% projected share.

The 31% projected share is much lower than their actual vote share which gave them that advantage in seats .

35% as per the spready - the strategy is intact!

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Labour 1891 seats, Tories 1259, Lib Dems, 404. Ukip 157. Take that, Westminster elite...

Labour certainly does well out of the FPTP system, with a 31% projected share.

The 31% projected share is much lower than their actual vote share which gave them that advantage in seats .

Precisely, I'm the process of finding out exactly what that share was.

4 wards still to count in Milton Keynes ( whole council new boundaries )
Currently Lab 19 Con 16 LD 10

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).

Other elections

Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/

The three main parties experienced a 30 point drop in the Hartlepool local elections compared to 2010:

Lab -10.63%
UKIP +16.41%
Con -10.32%
LD -9.68%
Ind +7.83%
Putting Hartlepool First +19.97%
BNP -2.72%

Danny565 said:

A q for the local election experts on here: How come the Tories still have more total councillors, when Labour have won the locals for the last 4 years in a row (which is a full election cycle, right?)?

Labour only 'won' if you look at the changes. In absolute terms the Tories won twice as many seats as Labour last year for example.

@MrHarryCole: Hearing a lot about a certain marginal poll tomorrow that Labour are going to enjoy. Said to point to a very, very hung parliament.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).

Other elections

Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/

So for every 100 UKIP votes in the locals, you can expect approx 250 votes in the Euros. Right?

Dear Generation Y,

I'm afraid there are no houses.

Kind regards - and good luck!
George.

P.S. Sorry you had to pick up the tab for our economic crisis. But don't moan about it - don't want anyone to think you're 'entitled'!

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).

Other elections

Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/

So for every 100 UKIP votes in the locals, you can expect approx 250 votes in the Euros. Right?

No.

If that stat is right, 100 locals would give 169 Euro votes.

Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .

@jameschappers: Labour MPs turn on Miliband over 'disastrous' campaign and failure to confront Ukip threat #tomorrowspaperstoday http://t.co/4sl83wGPBa

Quincel said:

It's looking like No Overall Majority can't stay longer than evens forever the way this is going. 4-way politics makes it hard to call, but the evidence is pointing more and more to no-one winning.

I'll float this idea again. Maybe we don't have a 4 party politics, may be we have a 3 party system, just we are going through the process of replacing the third party. I have no idea what the outcome of that process will be but I doubt it will look like the political map we now have.

Danny565 said:

A q for the local election experts on here: How come the Tories still have more total councillors, when Labour have won the locals for the last 4 years in a row (which is a full election cycle, right?)?

The Tories built up a huge number of councillors under Cameron. Massive leads for five years. Ed has done nowhere near that well in the last four years. His gains have been poor. Even IDS did better in the locals after Blair's destruction of the Tory local party machine.

maaarsh said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).

Other elections

Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/

So for every 100 UKIP votes in the locals, you can expect approx 250 votes in the Euros. Right?

No.

If that stat is right, 100 locals would give 169 Euro votes.

You're right, miss-read it. It's 59% who will vote for UKIP.

So that's (as you say) 1.69x multiplier from local votes to Euros.

maaarsh said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Next said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

I think if UKIP get 33% in the Euros the 17% projected share will look very strange by comparison, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of the experts starting to question it.

Why , did not one pollster (can't remember which ) question UKIP voters and 43% said they would be voting differently in local elections to the Euros

Survation, they had 41% of European election voting Kippers planning to vote for parties other than UKIP in the locals

On that basis, UKIP is going to do stunningly well in Euros (compared to the locals).

Other elections

Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.

http://survation.com/survations-final-european-parliament-2014-poll-results-survation-daily-mirror/

So for every 100 UKIP votes in the locals, you can expect approx 250 votes in the Euros. Right?

No.

If that stat is right, 100 locals would give 169 Euro votes.

The Survation EU Parliament prediction was;

Con 23%, Lab 27%, LD 9%, UKIP 32%

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf

(They're the source of the local vote stat)

Barnet may go to NOC, after all.

BobaFett said:

Labour now absolutely dominant in its London citadel.

It's the rest of the country that poses a problem.

You can keep it, as long as you promise not to bug the rest of us. In fact, that's a great idea. Your gang can have London, give the Tories some other god forsaken city, say, Brum or something. The LDs can have a couple of terraced houses in Eastleigh, UKIP can have Lincolnshire.
The rest of us will get on with being normal.

AndyJS said:

MarkSenior said:

Has anyone figured out why the seat totals on BBC and Sky are totally different for all parties . I have a possible reason .

Depending on whether you compare with the 2010 results or the situation just before the election, which would include by-elections and defections during the last 4 years.

No I am sure that is not right . I believe the BBC are showing the number of seats won yesterday and Sky are showing the total number of seats after yesterday on each council . For those with all out elections the numbers will be the same but for councils electing by 1/2 or 1/3rd Sky will show a higher number than the BBC . The gains and losses should be virtually the same .

Is it still possible to bet on the Euros? I'm still wondering whether UKIP might pull off a shock result in Wales, with a very low turnout due to no local elections.