politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we head into August the impact on holidays becomes the big

"New Zealand suspends Hong Kong extradition treaty"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53562437

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1287857199298031616

As so often, Jenkins nails it. From the start the government has been in panic mode, and the whole story of the virus crisis in the UK has been dither and indecision followed by overreaction followed by more dither and often as not then a u-turn.

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

IanB2 said:

As so often, Jenkins nails it. From the start the government has been in panic mode, and the whole story of the virus crisis in the UK has been dither and indecision followed by overreaction followed by more dither and often as not then a u-turn.

No that's not the 'whole' story. That's cheap and careless.

They did act too slowly but more recently they have improved. The mistake is not acting severely enough.

Face masks should be mandatory in all public places with on the spot fines and stricter measures for persistent law breakers. I could go on. We have been too slack rather than overreacting.

The virus is coming back with a vengeance and people whingeing will be made to look foolish.

Yes it's tough. But it's better than dying.

Well I'm glad these headlines are out. Good on the government taking the virus seriously

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

As so often, Jenkins nails it. From the start the government has been in panic mode, and the whole story of the virus crisis in the UK has been dither and indecision followed by overreaction followed by more dither and often as not then a u-turn.

I think the press have misjudged this badly. For once the government has made the right call and hopefully done it soon enough.

Absolutely

Notable drop in the number of flu cases in Australia.

https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1287973007034445824

Mysticrose said:

It's not panic mode. I'm grateful that the Gov't this time are acting relatively swiftly amidst a sharp rise in European cases.

It's inconvenient but a lot less inconvenient than having an intubation tube rammed down your esophagus for 3 weeks.

+100%.

The reality is that certain European countries, in an attempt to get their tourism industries going, have opened up sooner than they should have.

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

Yes. Yes it is.

Also milder side effects...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/pfizer-biontech-pick-covid19-vaccine-begin-pivotal-study/
... Philip Dormitzer, a Pfizer vice president in charge of vaccines, said the selected vaccine appears to generate a stronger response, in part because it includes more of the spike protein. That could mean less variability in how people respond to the vaccine. It also seemed to cause fewer side effects. “It just seemed a bit milder,” Dormitzer said in an interview. “There were fewer reactions to immunization, and that was an important mark in its favor.”

Why this vaccine candidate would have milder side effects is not clear, but Pfizer scientists speculate it is because of changes made to the messenger RNA that make it easier for mammalian cells to produce it. Whatever the reason, Dormitzer said, this is the candidate Pfizer is testing during the pandemic, though it can’t rule out that other variants might be taken off the shelf in the future. “This really is the final choice,” he said....

Nigelb said:

Damn those pesky algorithms...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1287880895051907072

Illegal ?! Lol

The action is totally justified and absolute hypocrisy from those who say it was too quick

Fortunately 89% of Brits have taken the decision not to holiday abroad and have demonstrated pure common sense

Not looking great in Japan, where the number of cases is slowly increasing:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13584458

Good morning everyone. Will it be dry in Manchester? Dry enough for cricket anyway!

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1287857199298031616

The problem with "state aid" is that it rapidly ends up going from its stated aims (improving the competitiveness of British firms, ensuring that certain areas of the country don't get left behind) to propping up firms with political connections.

Plus, once you've stepped in once to stop jobs being lost, it becomes increasingly hard not to continue doing it.

I hadn't previously thought of Dominic Cummings as a prototype Ted Heath, but I think they're temperamentally much more similar than they look.

More government money for Friends of Dom.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1287857199298031616

The problem with "state aid" is that it rapidly ends up going from its stated aims (improving the competitiveness of British firms, ensuring that certain areas of the country don't get left behind) to propping up firms with political connections.

Plus, once you've stepped in once to stop jobs being lost, it becomes increasingly hard not to continue doing it.

I hadn't previously thought of Dominic Cummings as a prototype Ted Heath, but I think they're temperamentally much more similar than they look.

More government money for Friends of Dom.

Went out for lunch on Sunday at a notable local restaurant, which is trying to get going again. Asked the owner, whom we know slightly, whether or not she was going to join the 'Eat Out' scheme. It was n't she said, worth it for her; most of her business was at weekends. I remarked that it seemed rather more suitable for Wetherspoons and other 'friends of Boris' and she agreed.

And of course...

https://twitter.com/WYeates/status/1287872806198210561

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

As so often, Jenkins nails it. From the start the government has been in panic mode, and the whole story of the virus crisis in the UK has been dither and indecision followed by overreaction followed by more dither and often as not then a u-turn.

Has it? I wish the government had gone into panic mode at the beginning of March (or earlier). And I like Jenkins, but that paragraph could easily have been written by Peter Hitchens.

I think the press have misjudged this badly. For once the government has made the right call and hopefully done it soon enough.

They did. But panic can create indecision, rabbit in the headlights style, which was my point, and his.

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

As so often, Jenkins nails it. From the start the government has been in panic mode, and the whole story of the virus crisis in the UK has been dither and indecision followed by overreaction followed by more dither and often as not then a u-turn.

....but more recently they have improved.
.

That’s absurd; recently it has been getting worse. In as many days as you can almost count on your fingers, Spain has now been through rumoured quarantine, denied rumours, imposed quarantine, lifted (exempted) quarantine, and now re-imposed quarantine. And all along little to nothing is being done to actually enforce any of it!

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

Interesting, and encouraging news from Pfizer and their German partner.

One of their vaccines (partly because their vaccine tech is quickest and cheaper to develop than conventional vaccines, they have more than one in the clinic) seems to work very well in older people - producing a better immune response than the disease itself does in those who recover.

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1287864230922694657

My hedge fund buddies have been pretty excited about this one for a while.

If it does prove safe and effective in large scale trials, that would be very exciting. It’s literally an order of magnitude cheaper to produce at scale than conventional vaccines.

That's their rationale: it's no more likely to work than others, but if CV19 turns out to be fairly easy to vaccinate against, then this vaccine will be produced faster and at lower cost. It could easily end up with a 90% market share.

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

How many of those calling foul now attacked HMG over Cheltenham and not quarantining flights much earlier.

As I said earlier lots of hypocrisy on display today

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Not back and forth in the way that government decision making is doing.

In any event, what we have is ‘honesty box’ quarantine, which people who are generally sensible and who will have travelled taking every precaution will generally observe, and people who are reckless and who have been careless or worse on their holiday will take no notice of whatsoever.

Germany - which has done much better than us so far - is currently preparing to test everyone returning from areas it considers at risk. Are we doing anything so proactive? Answer on a postcard (no need to write anything on it).

Yes back and forth. Whackamole.

We want to get as back to normal as possible to protect people's livelihoods while reacting quickly to squish any outbreaks when they pop up. Whackamole is the right analogy and the right tactic.

I don't see anything wrong with wanting honesty from people. Overwhelming majority of people don't want to break the law or do the wrong thing.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

How many of those calling foul now attacked HMG over Cheltenham and not quarantining flights much earlier.

As I said earlier lots of hypocrisy on display today

I'm one of them. If HMG was quarantining people - you will not leave the airport, you will be escorted to a hotel where we will lock you in - then that would be good. That is what I was calling for them to do like so many other countries.

What we have done instead is not quarantine. Lock yourself away - after getting public transport or a taxi if you need to. Stay home - unless you have to go out for a list of reasons including shopping. Or we'll use your form which you may not even have handed in and nobody has checked for accuracy to come check up on you. Except that we won't as no police force will waste one penny trying to enforce a colander to keep in water.

When we needed to lock the doors, Priti Patel stood there with her smirk doing nothing. Then months down the line she shuts the bottom half of the stable door and leaves the top half open. Enough action to destroy the travel industry, not enough to have any impact at all on virus management. Forget Spain that is just one country added to a long list of countries many of whom have the rona out of control. And we just let people in without a care. Whilst throwing a totem onto the fire LOOK, we are TOUGH.

There's nothing inconsistent or hypocritical of the government both advising public health for obesity and trying to protect the hospitality industry from devastation with the eat out scheme.

Honestly some people's sneering and condescension here just shows how out of touch and what a lack of understanding they have for the livelihoods of millions who are struggling right now.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

How many of those calling foul now attacked HMG over Cheltenham and not quarantining flights much earlier.

As I said earlier lots of hypocrisy on display today

It is quite bizarre. Learning lessons from the past is now seen as a stick to beat those who made mistakes rather than actually plotting a different course for the future. On the detail I think making a regional case in Spain would have been better but its fairly ridiculous to criticise them for the speed of the decision, even more so from those who complained about the lockdown being too slow.

Philip_Thompson said:

Whackamole is the right analogy and the right tactic.

The Government thinks the pandemic is

1. a game
2. can never be beaten

Awesome.

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Not back and forth in the way that government decision making is doing.

In any event, what we have is ‘honesty box’ quarantine, which people who are generally sensible and who will have travelled taking every precaution will generally observe, and people who are reckless and who have been careless or worse on their holiday will take no notice of whatsoever.

Germany - which has done much better than us so far - is currently preparing to test everyone returning from areas it considers at risk. Are we doing anything so proactive? Answer on a postcard (no need to write anything on it).

I just do not understand why the government seems so unwilling to use testing as a tool to better target measures like quarantine etc. So they don’t want to test people on arrival because apparently people may be incubating the virus but not produce positive results for a few days. But what is the risk of this? Are we talking about 1% “false negative”? Or 10%? Or 50%? It shouldn’t matter if a very low % slip through if the overall risk is acceptable - that’s risk management. 2m isn’t a “safe distance” for social distancing, it is relatively safe on the balance of risks.

And if the risks are unacceptably high for testing on entry, then do testing after, say 4 days. Or what ever period is considered acceptably safe. All is better than 14 days, no testing, and then do what you want. Because there is even a risk then that some percentage will slip through undetected. And that’s even before you factor in non compliance.

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

Most of the places locally using the scheme are sadly the sugary drinks and unhealthy food options.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

Most of the places locally using the scheme are sadly the sugary drinks and unhealthy food options.

At the price point where it applies this had to be the case.

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

I know you are on the libertarian end of the spectrum and I respect that. Which means that you know as well as I do what people are in most cases likely to be eating. It is not "sneering condescension" to point out that half price burgers in McDonalds paid for by the government is a direct contradiction to "stop eating burgers" said by the government. Yes its a fine balance between jobs and health. They don't attempt a balance or nuance. Its "eat burgers / don't eat burgers" in the same breath.

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Not back and forth in the way that government decision making is doing.

In any event, what we have is ‘honesty box’ quarantine, which people who are generally sensible and who will have travelled taking every precaution will generally observe, and people who are reckless and who have been careless or worse on their holiday will take no notice of whatsoever.

Germany - which has done much better than us so far - is currently preparing to test everyone returning from areas it considers at risk. Are we doing anything so proactive? Answer on a postcard (no need to write anything on it).

Yes back and forth. Whackamole.

We want to get as back to normal as possible to protect people's livelihoods while reacting quickly to squish any outbreaks when they pop up. Whackamole is the right analogy and the right tactic.

I don't see anything wrong with wanting honesty from people. Overwhelming majority of people don't want to break the law or do the wrong thing.

Philip you do understand the whole concept of the whack a mole strategy is that it's ineffective by design.

No it's effective by design. Squish outbreaks as they pop up.

By design we are acknowledging that more issues will pop up but we need to be alert to that and prepared for when they do to squish them too until this ends (which whackamole does, it does end).

Does anyone have any information on whether other countries have reimposed quarantine requirements on Spain?

Visited my local Tesco Metro last night.

Forgot to add the snood for the first 20 seconds. After apologising discovered that the policy is "we can't enforce it".

I'd say the answer is "yes, they can - or at least remind". Not impressed with such sloped shoulders.

MattW said:

Does anyone have any information on whether other countries have reimposed quarantine requirements on Spain?

https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-28/Spain-left-reeling-as-European-nations-impose-travel-restrictions-Stuai8UuQM/index.html

France, Germany, Poland, Belgium, Holland, Norway and Ireland all have some requirements - Norway the only one with a full new national quarantine? although Ireland effectively the same as released other countries apart from Spain from their quarantine list.

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

I know you are on the libertarian end of the spectrum and I respect that. Which means that you know as well as I do what people are in most cases likely to be eating. It is not "sneering condescension" to point out that half price burgers in McDonalds paid for by the government is a direct contradiction to "stop eating burgers" said by the government. Yes its a fine balance between jobs and health. They don't attempt a balance or nuance. Its "eat burgers / don't eat burgers" in the same breath.

No hypocrisy. It's half price anything but be careful and don't overeat.

One meal does not obesity cause. A lifetime of smart choices is required to keep healthy.

The government should not be saying all or nothing. Education and moderation are key, what is wrong with that?

MarqueeMark said:

Go back to retweeting the same items on multiple threads.

If you ever work out what a retweet is, do let us know...

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

Most of the places locally using the scheme are sadly the sugary drinks and unhealthy food options.

At the price point where it applies this had to be the case.

I don't know where you go to but half price of up to £20 per person (£10 discount) covers almost every meal of almost any restaurant in my area.

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

I know you are on the libertarian end of the spectrum and I respect that. Which means that you know as well as I do what people are in most cases likely to be eating. It is not "sneering condescension" to point out that half price burgers in McDonalds paid for by the government is a direct contradiction to "stop eating burgers" said by the government. Yes its a fine balance between jobs and health. They don't attempt a balance or nuance. Its "eat burgers / don't eat burgers" in the same breath.

No hypocrisy. It's half price anything but be careful and don't overeat.

One meal does not obesity cause. A lifetime of smart choices is required to keep healthy.

The government should not be saying all or nothing. Education and moderation are key, what is wrong with that?

Philip, are you overlooking that the trailed “anti-obesity measures” are not to be simply “guidance”? They include proposals to ban retailers from offering deals on high fat products. That is where the inconsistency and incoherence comes in.

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

I know you are on the libertarian end of the spectrum and I respect that. Which means that you know as well as I do what people are in most cases likely to be eating. It is not "sneering condescension" to point out that half price burgers in McDonalds paid for by the government is a direct contradiction to "stop eating burgers" said by the government. Yes its a fine balance between jobs and health. They don't attempt a balance or nuance. Its "eat burgers / don't eat burgers" in the same breath.

No hypocrisy. It's half price anything but be careful and don't overeat.

One meal does not obesity cause. A lifetime of smart choices is required to keep healthy.

The government should not be saying all or nothing. Education and moderation are key, what is wrong with that?

Philip. "Be careful and don't overeat". In McDonalds. On Half Price Big Macs. With restaurants specifically reopened to allow people to do so.

Come on. You know what McDonalds punters are in there for. Its not for a salad bowl.

My anecdata from two different friends that were in Spain when "quarantine" measures were re-introduced is that they have no intention whatsoever of following the advice. One is already back at work in his office (for the first time since March ironically). The other intends to fly back 48 hours before the school term starts.

What annoys me most about this government is that they insult our intelligence with the messaging. Stop playing games. Either imported cases matter, in which case stop fucking about and ban RyanAir from flying and take arrivals to central quarantine facilities. Or it doesn't matter in the grand scheme with good flight hygiene and pre-boarding testing and let people do what they want.

It's like the country is being run by the two facets of Tyler Durden.

DavidL said:

alex_ said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Not back and forth in the way that government decision making is doing.

In any event, what we have is ‘honesty box’ quarantine, which people who are generally sensible and who will have travelled taking every precaution will generally observe, and people who are reckless and who have been careless or worse on their holiday will take no notice of whatsoever.

Germany - which has done much better than us so far - is currently preparing to test everyone returning from areas it considers at risk. Are we doing anything so proactive? Answer on a postcard (no need to write anything on it).

I just do not understand why the government seems so unwilling to use testing as a tool to better target measures like quarantine etc. So they don’t want to test people on arrival because apparently people may be incubating the virus but not produce positive results for a few days. But what is the risk of this? Are we talking about 1% “false negative”? Or 10%? Or 50%? It shouldn’t matter if a very low % slip through if the overall risk is acceptable - that’s risk management. 2m isn’t a “safe distance” for social distancing, it is relatively safe on the balance of risks.

And if the risks are unacceptably high for testing on entry, then do testing after, say 4 days. Or what ever period is considered acceptably safe. All is better than 14 days, no testing, and then do what you want. Because there is even a risk then that some percentage will slip through undetected. And that’s even before you factor in non compliance.

I agree. Testing is a numbers game. If it identifies 80% of those infected allowing them to be isolated this is a very positive result. I have never understood the boffins obsession with 100% accuracy.

Because the 20% may turn into superspreaders if you inform them they don't have it.

alex_ said:

DavidL said:

alex_ said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

felix said:

So the polling which shows support for the travel ban counts for nought? The mistake made was actually to allow foreign travel too soon. The public knows this which is why the vast majority were not travelling abroad this year. As suual the press opts for the cheap headline blaming the government for acting too quickly, after weeks of whining that they acted too slowly.

Agreed. I don't give a flying f*ck about public opinion on this anyway. Governing is about doing what is right not what is popular.

It is remarkable how what is right changes so frequently and quickly.

In the fast moving environment of a pandemic absolutely it does.

Not back and forth in the way that government decision making is doing.

In any event, what we have is ‘honesty box’ quarantine, which people who are generally sensible and who will have travelled taking every precaution will generally observe, and people who are reckless and who have been careless or worse on their holiday will take no notice of whatsoever.

Germany - which has done much better than us so far - is currently preparing to test everyone returning from areas it considers at risk. Are we doing anything so proactive? Answer on a postcard (no need to write anything on it).

I just do not understand why the government seems so unwilling to use testing as a tool to better target measures like quarantine etc. So they don’t want to test people on arrival because apparently people may be incubating the virus but not produce positive results for a few days. But what is the risk of this? Are we talking about 1% “false negative”? Or 10%? Or 50%? It shouldn’t matter if a very low % slip through if the overall risk is acceptable - that’s risk management. 2m isn’t a “safe distance” for social distancing, it is relatively safe on the balance of risks.

And if the risks are unacceptably high for testing on entry, then do testing after, say 4 days. Or what ever period is considered acceptably safe. All is better than 14 days, no testing, and then do what you want. Because there is even a risk then that some percentage will slip through undetected. And that’s even before you factor in non compliance.

I agree. Testing is a numbers game. If it identifies 80% of those infected allowing them to be isolated this is a very positive result. I have never understood the boffins obsession with 100% accuracy.

I suppose the counter argument is that a person who has produced a false negative becomes an exponentially greater risk. They will feel free to act with impunity and disregard all safety measures they might otherwise have taken. Although this would still be at personal risk to themselves even not (they perceive) to others.

Not really, they would still want to socially distance to avoid infection here. This is what was said at the press conferences. A test that was less than 100% reliable was “worse than useless “. I just think that like so many other things they got that wrong. If 80% of cases are isolated early the R rate will fall.

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I won't be at all surprised if the government don't swiftly rescind the Spain thing following the obvious pressure from the entire travel sector about how many people they are about to make redundant. Contradiction and hypocrisy to do so? Perhaps, but as they're making it up every day with no clue what they did previous days (cf eat half price burgers / don't eat burgers) it fits the pattern of behaviour.

If the "quarantine" was actually quarantine then perhaps they had a point. As it is if someone is even there at the airport to collect your form the authorities appear to spend zero enforcing it as them calling on you and you not being there is fine for a whole host of reasons. As with so much of their stuff it is nonsense on stilts.

That would require the Government to admit that they made a mistake. And as with Cummings when forced to choose between admitting they made a mistake and doubling down the Government will double down.

So if we all need to lose weight and the government is announcing a stack of anti-obesity measures from August including the plan to scrap buy one get one free on food, was not buy one burger get one free in August a mistake...? Or just the usual disorganised chaos.

QTWAIN.

Not a mistake. The industry is devastated at the minute. And while going out it's entirely possible to think about what you order and choose a healthier option and not a supersized meal with sugary drinks.

The key to having a healthy weight is to make smart choices ... it is categorically NOT to never go out!

I know you are on the libertarian end of the spectrum and I respect that. Which means that you know as well as I do what people are in most cases likely to be eating. It is not "sneering condescension" to point out that half price burgers in McDonalds paid for by the government is a direct contradiction to "stop eating burgers" said by the government. Yes its a fine balance between jobs and health. They don't attempt a balance or nuance. Its "eat burgers / don't eat burgers" in the same breath.

No hypocrisy. It's half price anything but be careful and don't overeat.

One meal does not obesity cause. A lifetime of smart choices is required to keep healthy.

The government should not be saying all or nothing. Education and moderation are key, what is wrong with that?

Philip. "Be careful and don't overeat". In McDonalds. On Half Price Big Macs. With restaurants specifically reopened to allow people to do so.

Come on. You know what McDonalds punters are in there for. Its not for a salad bowl.

How often do you eat at McDonald's? I do, do you with your sneering pretensions?

If you actually eat their nobody puts a gun against your head and forces you to buy a meal with large fries and large sugary Coke.

When we go we get out children chicken nuggets with carrot sticks instead of fries in their happy meal. I tend to get a burger and side salad instead of fries and Coke Zero.

Personal choice and responsibilities are things for people to learn.

moonshine said:

It's like the country is being run by the two facets of Tyler Durden.

Which has been true since Durham.

Follow the guidance, unless you don't want to, like Dom...

moonshine said:

My anecdata from two different friends that were in Spain when "quarantine" measures were re-introduced is that they have no intention whatsoever of following the advice. One is already back at work in his office (for the first time since March ironically). The other intends to fly back 48 hours before the school term starts.

What annoys me most about this government is that they insult our intelligence with the messaging. Stop playing games. Either imported cases matter, in which case stop fucking about and ban RyanAir from flying and take arrivals to central quarantine facilities. Or it doesn't matter in the grand scheme with good flight hygiene and pre-boarding testing and let people do what they want.

It's like the country is being run by the two facets of Tyler Durden.

Your premise is wrong, decisions on infection rates are not clear cut and categorical, they are complex and nuanced.

moonshine said:

My anecdata from two different friends that were in Spain when "quarantine" measures were re-introduced is that they have no intention whatsoever of following the advice. One is already back at work in his office (for the first time since March ironically). The other intends to fly back 48 hours before the school term starts.

What annoys me most about this government is that they insult our intelligence with the messaging. Stop playing games. Either imported cases matter, in which case stop fucking about and ban RyanAir from flying and take arrivals to central quarantine facilities. Or it doesn't matter in the grand scheme with good flight hygiene and pre-boarding testing and let people do what they want.

It's like the country is being run by the two facets of Tyler Durden.

My first reaction on hearing the news on Spanish holiday returnees was that a lot of people would ignore the quarantine rule.

RochdalePioneers said:

Barnesian said:

"The Foreign Office later extended its travel advice, telling people to avoid all non-essential journeys to the Canary and Balearic Islands, as well as mainland Spain."

The Canary and Balearic Islands have a lower incidence of the virus than the UK.

"Defending the decision to extend advice against non-essential travel to the Spanish islands as well as the mainland, Local Government Minister Simon Clarke said it was taken to "minimise disruption" for travellers.

“Clearly you do have to make decisions on a country-wide basis." he said.

This is clearly nuts. If I were holidaying in the Canaries I would go ahead and simply ignore the government's advice to self isolate for 14 days on my return with no qualms whatsover as it wouldn't increase risk.

I'm not advising anyone. But remember that even if they collect your form and even if you have filled it in accurately nobody is going to knock on your door on day 12 to check you are at the location stated. Even if the police had the time / money to try and enforce this then know that "I went out for a shop" or "it was an emergency" are enough to avoid the fine. Which is why not a penny has been spent on enforcement.

It is not a quarantine.

As for the comments about Tesco enforcing masks why should a poorly paid shop worker open themselves up to more violence and abuse? They've been on the receiving end of some horrendous examples during this pandemic already. If aggressive young scrote / libertarian gammon doesn't want to wear a mask the shops aren't going to make them change their minds.

There are a number of firms who specialise in privatisation of litter management and other things who are very money orientated because they only earn a commission from the fines.

Were I in power all these firms would be managing the quarantine rules...

Of course fines would need to be bigger to cover the costs but there is zero reason why the fine should be £100, £500 would more than cover any required incentive.

noneoftheabove said:

moonshine said:

My anecdata from two different friends that were in Spain when "quarantine" measures were re-introduced is that they have no intention whatsoever of following the advice. One is already back at work in his office (for the first time since March ironically). The other intends to fly back 48 hours before the school term starts.

What annoys me most about this government is that they insult our intelligence with the messaging. Stop playing games. Either imported cases matter, in which case stop fucking about and ban RyanAir from flying and take arrivals to central quarantine facilities. Or it doesn't matter in the grand scheme with good flight hygiene and pre-boarding testing and let people do what they want.

It's like the country is being run by the two facets of Tyler Durden.

Your premise is wrong, decisions on infection rates are not clear cut and categorical, they are complex and nuanced.

I am not wrong. It's fine for the data to change such that what was seen as low risk is now seen as high risk. But if that's the case, how about actually doing something to counter the moral hazard from people "cheating" and behaving as they want? Such as you know, actually quarantining people under quarantine.