politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50
Comments
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It was just a joke...Fysics_Teacher said:
Whose votes count just as much as anyone else’s (at least they have done since, I think, 1948).CorrectHorseBattery said:
It's designed for simpletonsPhilip_Thompson said:Great video by Boris sharing his achievements after 12 months. I hadn't seen that, thank you to all his critics who've been sharing it here laughing at it. Made me smile
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Probably offset somewhat by the pubs only serving outside. (Almost) mandatory mask wearing in Costco in Cardiff today, and maybe 50% mask wearing in St Davids Centre. Drakeford behind the curve this time.CatMan said:Went to my local coop earler. I'm in Wales (which as I'm sure most of you know, has no requirement to wear a mask in shops). Most people *weren't* wearing masks. I wonder if there will be a difference in the figures between Wales and England/Scotland in the next few weeks.
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It was beyond parody.Philip_Thompson said:Great video by Boris sharing his achievements after 12 months. I hadn't seen that, thank you to all his critics who've been sharing it here laughing at it. Made me smile
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How is everyone's evening going?
I'm making a lovely curry for supper.0 -
Scum of the earth. They claimed it was an accident, then laughed as the death was described in court. They surely knew what they were doing? Hope they rot in hell.
"The criminal history of PC Andrew Harper's callous killers has been laid bare after they were cleared of dragging the "gentle giant" for over a mile to his death.
Driver Henry Long, 19, and his passengers Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, both 18, wept tears of joy, hugged and patted each other on the backs in celebration as PC Harper's widow Lissie broke down at the verdicts.
The trio, none of whom are able to read or write, laughed and joked throughout the trial as the horrific details of PC Harper's death were read to the jury."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/criminal-history-andrew-harpers-killers-224125953 -
Thanks for the heads up. Not the best time to be heading over there but they are going...nichomar said:Info for those traveling to Valencia Mrs P?
Four new outbreaks in the Valencian Community: The Department of Universal Health and Public Health of the Valencian Community has detected four new outbreaks of between three and six cases in Cabanes, Elda, l'Alcora and Monforte del Cid. The outbreak in Gandia now exceeds 100 affected people as another 30 infections have been diagnosed (114 in total), and in the Santa Pola nightclub only six positives have been detected out of the 408 tests carried out. In total, in the Valencian community 117 new cases have been identified in the last 24 hours.0 -
I seldom agree with you, but absolutely, Mr Harper's final moments were truly horrible.isam said:Complete c*nts. They claimed it was an accident, then laughed as the death was described in court. They surely knew what they were doing? Hope they rot in hell.
"The criminal history of PC Andrew Harper's callous killers has been laid bare after they were cleared of dragging the "gentle giant" for over a mile to his death.
Driver Henry Long, 19, and his passengers Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, both 18, wept tears of joy, hugged and patted each other on the backs in celebration as PC Harper's widow Lissie broke down at the verdicts.
The trio, none of whom are able to read or write, laughed and joked throughout the trial as the horrific details of PC Harper's death were read to the jury."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/criminal-history-andrew-harpers-killers-22412595
I am opposed to capital punishment in all its forms, but these three could be poster boys for its return for the murder or manslaughter of a police officer. They could almost turn a woolly liberal like me.
Truly horrific and shocking.0 -
Trying to model my theory that the explanation for excess deaths being negative (weekly now not historic), next to no hospital deaths but continuously 50-100 community deaths is due to natural deaths in care homes from people who had COVID, recovered but PHE are recording it as COVID due to the known fact that PHE are recording any deaths of anyone who dies in community for any reason to be recorded as COVID if they'd tested positive in the past.
9,081 care homes took part in the ONS Vivaldi project earlier this year to model COVID19 in care homes: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/impactofcoronavirusincarehomesinenglandvivaldi/26mayto19june2020
ONS estimates 293,301 residents in those homes.
ONS estimates 10.7% of all residents across all those homes tested positive.
That is therefore ~31,383 people residents who tested positve.
Estimating 20% morbidity due to COVID that would be 25,106 survivors.
Estimating 50% dying from natural causes within 12 months (multiple sources earlier gave higher figure at 12 months from admission): 12,553 natural deaths within 12 months.
Dividing to a daily total: 35 deaths per day average.
That's for the 9,081 homes surveyed by the ONS. According to one study there are 21,723 care homes in the UK and Channel Islands but I can't find an England-only figure. If we pro-rata England's population in that there would be just over 18,000 care homes in England. How representative the 9,081 studied by the ONS are though I don't know. If we assume they are representative then that would scale then to an estimated 70 natural deaths per day on average.
A few assumptions in there, but if I'm right then this would explain why we have negative excess deaths, next-to-no hospital deaths but regularly 50 to 150 community deaths daily.
What do you think? PS this theory would not affect historic figures, it is trying to understand current figures daily and weekly.0 -
Looking at the politics and the personal, I no longer see Sen. Harris as prima facie more likely than Amb. Rice. What, she'll swing California?0
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Very well here. Scottish Borders mutton stew (mature sheep, not lamb) with homegrown turnips and potatoes. And plenty of Australian red. Half of it is our curry tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:How is everyone's evening going?
I'm making a lovely curry for supper.1 -
All my dreams coming true, obviously. Not difficult.kinabalu said:
Yes nothing better than a binary. And I have a good one. Gun to head what would YOU choose between -Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily. But its a simple question - if forced to choose which would you prefer?state_go_away said:
You can quite plainly have neitherPhilip_Thompson said:
If forced to choose - would you rather be forced to wear masks but have no lockdown, or not wear masks but have another lockdown?Andy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1286658392019202053kle4 said:
I think such people reveal themselves through such action as actually just being contrarian.Philip_Thompson said:I don't understand the "lockdown sceptics" opposed to masks.
Masks are the alternative to locking down FFS!
(i) all your dreams coming true except dinner with Boris.
(ii) dinner with Boris.0 -
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.0 -
Rice has no politics experience, and hasn't been tested on the debate stage. She can be categorised as "who is this woman who's a heartbeat from the Presidency?"EPG said:Looking at the politics and the personal, I no longer see Sen. Harris as prima facie more likely than Amb. Rice. What, she'll swing California?
Harris is an experienced Senator, who performed well in cross examination in the Senate, and did OK in the early debates.0 -
The brand new Brexit plan: Angela Merkel will save us
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/24/britain-looks-berlin-break-brexit-deadlock/0 -
and the only difference between now and then is they opened bars restaurants and non essential shops....its not the huge step change you claim.Philip_Thompson said:
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.0 -
Jon Ronson is an author, who wrote the excellent Them: Adventures with Extremists, which is a highly entertaining read.state_go_away said:
Dont know any of these two gentlemen unless one used to play rugby for australia! Again very arrogant view that people must be mad if they dont want a mask on or think mask wearing is going to be effective in getting rid of covid 19rcs1000 said:
But ultimately, if you have CV19 (whether you realise it or not), and you wear a mask, you are less likely to transmit it. That is a fact, rather than "arrogance". Unless, in these febrile times, facts have become arrogance.2 -
It's also worth noting that there's hasn't been a big spike of deaths in Leicester or the other hotspots.Black_Rook said:
July 8th was over a fortnight ago. If the increase in cases identified by testing actually represented a real increase in total cases in the community, then one would presumably expect data such as 111 calls, 999 calls and hospitalisations to have shown evidence of a resurgence already. What we actually observe is that the telephone enquiries remain static and hospitalisations continue to decline at a slow but steady rate, as patients who are either discharged or die continue to outnumber those being admitted.FeersumEnjineeya said:
I note that the 7-day moving average number of daily new cases reported for the UK has now risen to 656 from a low point of 545 on 8 July. Hopefully this doesn't represent the start of a second wave of infections, but it does look a little ominous. It'll be interesting (and of course worrying) to see if this is reflected in rising deaths over the coming weeks.Malmesbury said:England Deaths - Hospital vs Other Settings.
Usual caveats apply. Interesting that the slope on the 7 day trendlines is so similar.
It still looks as if the most likely explanation for the increase in confirmed cases is the carpet bombing of hotspots like Leicester with extra testing, resulting in the identification of more carriers in general, and asymptomatic ones in particular.
This isn't surprising, since the number of cases compared to the fatality rate is not actually that large.0 -
Ok so (i).Philip_Thompson said:
All my dreams coming true, obviously. Not difficult.kinabalu said:
Yes nothing better than a binary. And I have a good one. Gun to head what would YOU choose between -Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily. But its a simple question - if forced to choose which would you prefer?state_go_away said:
You can quite plainly have neitherPhilip_Thompson said:
If forced to choose - would you rather be forced to wear masks but have no lockdown, or not wear masks but have another lockdown?Andy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1286658392019202053kle4 said:
I think such people reveal themselves through such action as actually just being contrarian.Philip_Thompson said:I don't understand the "lockdown sceptics" opposed to masks.
Masks are the alternative to locking down FFS!
(i) all your dreams coming true except dinner with Boris.
(ii) dinner with Boris.
You would sacrifice the dream of dinner with Boris in order to have all your other dreams come true.
That's what I thought you'd say. On balance I believe you.0 -
And you can visit family and friends.Pagan2 said:
and the only difference between now and then is they opened bars restaurants and non essential shops....its not the huge step change you claim.Philip_Thompson said:
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.
And you can go into peoples homes.
And you the vulnerable are coming out of shielding.
And millions are going back to work.
And you can go on holiday.
And you can play sport.
And you can go to theatres, cinemas and other entertainment.
And you can go to gyms.
And preschools have reopened.
And schools are reopening.
And people are going back to sports stadia next month.
And more and more and more
Life is getting back to normal. In order to get back to normal we need to wear a mask because the mask cuts transmission instead of being in lockdown. You seriously would rather remain under lockdown for another 12 months rather than wear a mask?2 -
Isn't it a parody of Jacinda Adern?Mexicanpete said:
It was beyond parody.Philip_Thompson said:Great video by Boris sharing his achievements after 12 months. I hadn't seen that, thank you to all his critics who've been sharing it here laughing at it. Made me smile
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I don't dream about having dinner with Boris. Met George Osborne once while having drinks.kinabalu said:
Ok so (i).Philip_Thompson said:
All my dreams coming true, obviously. Not difficult.kinabalu said:
Yes nothing better than a binary. And I have a good one. Gun to head what would YOU choose between -Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily. But its a simple question - if forced to choose which would you prefer?state_go_away said:
You can quite plainly have neitherPhilip_Thompson said:
If forced to choose - would you rather be forced to wear masks but have no lockdown, or not wear masks but have another lockdown?Andy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1286658392019202053kle4 said:
I think such people reveal themselves through such action as actually just being contrarian.Philip_Thompson said:I don't understand the "lockdown sceptics" opposed to masks.
Masks are the alternative to locking down FFS!
(i) all your dreams coming true except dinner with Boris.
(ii) dinner with Boris.
You would sacrifice the dream of dinner with Boris in order to have all your other dreams come true.
That's what I thought you'd say. On balance I believe you.0 -
Not sure about shops in general, but brief experience thus far is that masks in takeaways in particular is largely completely pointless. Because it seems to be very difficult to communicate and most people are having to take them off to communicate their order.0
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That sounds good: is the recipe as obvious as it sounds or would I need to look it up?Carnyx said:
Very well here. Scottish Borders mutton stew (mature sheep, not lamb) with homegrown turnips and potatoes. And plenty of Australian red. Half of it is our curry tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:How is everyone's evening going?
I'm making a lovely curry for supper.
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If it is a parody, it is such an excellent parody that it cannot be parodied.williamglenn said:
Isn't it a parody of Jacinda Adern?Mexicanpete said:
It was beyond parody.Philip_Thompson said:Great video by Boris sharing his achievements after 12 months. I hadn't seen that, thank you to all his critics who've been sharing it here laughing at it. Made me smile
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A group of people belonging to the bullfighting sector have received the Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, with insults in Toledo and have asked for his resignation. The protesters say they feel abandoned by the Government in the face of the crisis generated by COVID-19 and assure that the bullfighting world is also culture.
Bullfighting sector protesters rebuke Minister Yolanda Díaz in Toledo
Well it’s a view0 -
It's a curiousity. I decided on breakfast at my local cafe in the Barking Road so I went in, ordered the usual Full Stodge and sat down removing my mask. In comes a man with a mask and orders a sandwich - he is told to wait and keep his mark on inside or go outside and wait and it's up to him.alex_ said:Not sure about shops in general, but brief experience thus far is that masks in takeaways in particular is largely completely pointless. Because it seems to be very difficult to communicate and most people are having to take them off to communicate their order.
He goes outside, takes off his mask and then the owner calls him back to collect his sandwich but says he has to wear a mask again. Okay - I'm sitting there sans mask waiting for my breakfast (soon no doubt to be banned under the new Boris anti-obesity laws - I'll have to go to an underground "Stodge-easy" to enjoy my greasy spoon in future) basking in the absurdity of it all.
100% mask compliance in WH Smith - I was the only customer. Mask wearing a little higher but still only 20-25% overall I reckon. Ho hum.0 -
Masks should have been brought in at the end of March when the epidemic was at its height.3
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Evening all
Let's not be too negative - Boris Johnson's path to power was laid out in the poll on June 12th 2019 which showed him to be the only Conservative leadership contender able to win a majority. In a very real sense, the game was up for the Opposition as Boris was the only candidate able to nullify Farage and once that was done defeating the most left-wing Labour leader in history and an LD leader riding roughshod over democracy was a piece of Victoria Sponge.
As to the future, it hasn't happened yet.1 -
Perhaps she can get us accelerated entry to the EEA....williamglenn said:The brand new Brexit plan: Angela Merkel will save us
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/24/britain-looks-berlin-break-brexit-deadlock/
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More anti-Enlightenment, anti-rationalism from a Labour MP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8556921/Labour-MP-Nadia-Whittom-24-launches-attack-free-speech.html0 -
My personal theory is that we have been told to wear masks mainly because the behavioural scientists told the politicians it would act as a constant reminder, perhaps even subconsciously, that there is still a plague. This will help remind people not to forget the 2m rule and so on.stodge said:
It's a curiousity. I decided on breakfast at my local cafe in the Barking Road so I went in, ordered the usual Full Stodge and sat down removing my mask. In comes a man with a mask and orders a sandwich - he is told to wait and keep his mark on inside or go outside and wait and it's up to him.alex_ said:Not sure about shops in general, but brief experience thus far is that masks in takeaways in particular is largely completely pointless. Because it seems to be very difficult to communicate and most people are having to take them off to communicate their order.
He goes outside, takes off his mask and then the owner calls him back to collect his sandwich but says he has to wear a mask again. Okay - I'm sitting there sans mask waiting for my breakfast (soon no doubt to be banned under the new Boris anti-obesity laws - I'll have to go to an underground "Stodge-easy" to enjoy my greasy spoon in future) basking in the absurdity of it all.
100% mask compliance in WH Smith - I was the only customer. Mask wearing a little higher but still only 20-25% overall I reckon. Ho hum.
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In hindsight yes I completely agree. Shame we didn't realise that at the time, lockdown may have been avoidable.Andy_JS said:Masks should have been brought in at the end of March when the epidemic was at its height.
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Maybe a little harsh on Rice. She's certainly been tested on the major weekend political talk shows and at the UN media circus. I'll grant that she's not run for election herself and has been defending others' policies, not her own, so it's not the same thing. But she's not a political rube by any means.rcs1000 said:
Rice has no politics experience, and hasn't been tested on the debate stage. She can be categorised as "who is this woman who's a heartbeat from the Presidency?"EPG said:Looking at the politics and the personal, I no longer see Sen. Harris as prima facie more likely than Amb. Rice. What, she'll swing California?
Harris is an experienced Senator, who performed well in cross examination in the Senate, and did OK in the early debates.0 -
Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
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Clowns belong in the circus, not in No. 10!Beibheirli_C said:
I lasted about 30 seconds before the overwhelming bombast made me throw up... How anyone can take that clown seriously is beyond me.Mexicanpete said:
I was just questioning Johnson's own analysis of the job he seems to think he has done over the last twelve months.bigjohnowls said:
Yes world beating, indeed miles ahead.Mexicanpete said:
A world beating Prime Minister?Theuniondivvie said:Bit of a reek of trying to convince himself. Not a whiff of mea culpa naturally.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1286693381620596736?s=20
In terms of Covid deaths per Million in all the major Nations of the World we are in a league of our own.
Waits for PT, Big G, Rob et al trying to convince us San Marino and Belgium are major Nations.
The lack of humility and self awareness is reminiscent of Trump.3 -
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.0 -
Stodge: 1.9% down on June 2019 is quite impressive I think given much was still locked down then. Most shops only reopened mid June.0
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The Corbynites continue to distance themselves from the leadership. I bet Keir can't believe his luck0
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Yes I am enjoying lockdown entirelyPhilip_Thompson said:
And you can visit family and friends.Pagan2 said:
and the only difference between now and then is they opened bars restaurants and non essential shops....its not the huge step change you claim.Philip_Thompson said:
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.
And you can go into peoples homes.
And you the vulnerable are coming out of shielding.
And millions are going back to work.
And you can go on holiday.
And you can play sport.
And you can go to theatres, cinemas and other entertainment.
And you can go to gyms.
And preschools have reopened.
And schools are reopening.
And people are going back to sports stadia next month.
And more and more and more
Life is getting back to normal. In order to get back to normal we need to wear a mask because the mask cuts transmission instead of being in lockdown. You seriously would rather remain under lockdown for another 12 months rather than wear a mask?
as to all those things most of them werent actually happening
Schools are reopening in september supposedly but I will believe that when it happens.
most of the things though like cinema's and theatres aren't going to happen either because it won't pay to reopen them. Permission to reopen isn't the same as reopening and you think all we need to do is wear masks in shops where there are no recorded resurgences despite the fact that throughout lockdown people were visiting shops maskless. There will be a resurgence and it will be people like you that cause it. In the mean time you are merely trying to incovenience the rest of us by your pal Boris pretending to take meaningful action.
Evidence within 3 days of the pub opening how many shut down again due to viral spread only was quite a few wasn't it.....how many supermarkets closed due to being the centre of viral spread during lockdown when people were going there maskless oh thats right it was a big fat zero!
0 -
Also 50% down followed by 50% up does not get you back to where you started, but 25% down.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.0 -
My favourite pro mask post on FB:
"If you find the mask too uncomfortable you're gonna hate the ventilator"6 -
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I suppose you could it Wallace's Revenge but a slew of Fox News polls from marginal States this evening make grim reading for the President.
Biden is ahead by nine in Michigan, eleven in Pennsylvania and thirteen in Minnesota. Last time, Trump won Michigan by a quarter of a point and Pennsylvania by half a point and Clinton won Minnesota by one and a half points so that's a fairly uniform swing of between five and a half and six points to Biden.
The commonality of the swing across the three states interests me most.
That's landslide territory.
2 -
Wouldn't it have been growing for 12 months? Anything above 50 is growth.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.0 -
I am specifically referring to the people in videos having tantrums about being asked to wear a mask, loonies is one of the politer expressions that comes to mind.Andy_JS said:
Is it necessary for you to describe people you disagree with as loonies?OllyT said:
I regularly come across videos of no-maskers (usually Americans) having tantrums in shops and airlines, last one being a "Karen" being hauled off an AA flight to great applause from all the other passengers.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancy some freedom fighter's tears?
https://twitter.com/LaraCrabb/status/1286568323887620096?s=20
Without exception they come across as total loonies. Why anyone could possibly get that het up about being asked to wear a face covering in the interests of trying to stop the virus spreading is completely beyond me.
Even if they think it's not going to do much good does it really matter? I think there must just be a small number of bloody minded souls that wander round looking for something to rant about, I suppose it's a form of attention seeking.1 -
Hmm, that's not as I understand it, the PMIs are relative to 50, above 50 is GDP growth and below is a contraction. 57 is a good figure but it's relative to the 14 we had in April so we're seeing high growth from a lowish base.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
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53
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56
57
59
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
Edit: I see we're in agreement. Though we're talking across purposes to some degree with Stodge. 57 is growth, but from a low base, they aren't benchmarked against the previous month, however, it's just a balance of sentiment.1 -
Shurely shome mishtake?rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
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53
54
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56
57
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
That looks like it should be massively positive to me.
I thought any PMI of 50 was even, then anything more than 50 is positive, so the 100 is a massive positive at the start followed by staying still in month two, then 11 months gradually positive?0 -
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The big change has been the growth of online sales - this notion people stopped spending isn't true. People simply went online - we ordered meat, fruit, veg and a whole lot of stuff online in April and May. We did big buying less often and I think that was typical.Philip_Thompson said:Stodge: 1.9% down on June 2019 is quite impressive I think given much was still locked down then. Most shops only reopened mid June.
Online as 32% of retail sales is a seismic shift from 20% pre-Covid and while I'm sure some pent-up demand was behind the initial push back in offline retailing, the evidence I'm seeing is shops are quiet again.
The other consequence of not travelling was the falloff in fuel sales - we stopped buying petrol because we weren't going anywhere. I suspect one of the consequences of the homeworking revolution will be fewer miles driven and while I'm not unhappy at the environmental impact, I have to say the return of traffic jams on the A406 is disappointingly predictable.0 -
So one thing to understand is PMIs are a a sentiment based indicator, it's basically a guy asking purchasing managers in companies whether their business is expanding or not, if there are more positive answers the higher the index will be.Philip_Thompson said:Stodge: 1.9% down on June 2019 is quite impressive I think given much was still locked down then. Most shops only reopened mid June.
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robert said if 'economic output', not PMI, went 100 etc., then you'd have positive PMIs for 11 months.RobD said:
Wouldn't it have been growing for 12 months? Anything above 50 is growth.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
59
60
61
Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.0 -
Thank you.Philip_Thompson said:
Will be nice when we can get back to normal, but definitely better to be able to get out and about and at least see and talk to people, than being locked down again. Its remarkable how many states in the USA are now going into second lockdowns having to shut down pubs and restaurants etc again, lets hope that never happens again here!Cyclefree said:
Went to Tesco’s today and the butcher. Everyone was wearing a mask of some type.LadyG said:
The strangest thing about all this, for me, is that I have started to find masks "sexy". They make you concentrate on the eyes, and the rest of the face is left to your vivid imagination. Masks, in this light, are coquettish: like a flirtatious Victorian woman hiding her face with a lacy fan.kle4 said:
I just don't get the mentality here. If a government's diabolical plan to curtail my liberty involves making me cover up my ugly face in public whilst leaving my political and speaking liberty intact, I think I can live with it.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancy some freedom fighter's tears?
https://twitter.com/LaraCrabb/status/1286568323887620096?s=20
Covering up can be as erotic as revealing. The same process happens if you spend a long time in a conservative Islamic country.
What I miss is not being able to smile at people. Or have them smile back.
Hope your daughters reopening is going well. Best wishes for her.0 -
My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.0
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Of course it's a huge step change. Prior to those openings our town centre was practically deserted, today it almost back to normal.Pagan2 said:
and the only difference between now and then is they opened bars restaurants and non essential shops....its not the huge step change you claim.Philip_Thompson said:
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.0 -
If it's simply a measure of sentiment, it has little or no empirical value. People relieved at being back open and in business would regard any trade as an improvement and considerable growth on a month where they did no trade at all.MaxPB said:
Hmm, that's not as I understand it, the PMIs are relative to 50, above 50 is GDP growth and below is a contraction. 57 is a good figure but it's relative to the 14 we had in April so we're seeing high growth from a lowish base.
Edit: I see we're in agreement. Though we're talking across purposes to some degree with Stodge. 57 is growth, but from a low base, they aren't benchmarked against the previous month, however, it's just a balance of sentiment.
Yet, the volume of trade, though much greater than a month with no trade at all. might still be well below the volumes before Covid.
Statistics like this are then used as political weapons - gosh, a PMI of 57, the economy must be growing strongly. Well, yes, but it's not back where it was.
If you have 100 in February and fall 25% that takes you to 75 - if you then rebound 20% you don't get to 95 but to 90. I don't think many people understand the nuance and see the figures as better than they really are but then that's probably the point if I'm being cynical.
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Last week's infection map shows how few areas now have any virus.Andy_JS said:"Coronavirus driven out in most local areas
Almost nine in ten people live in areas that have effectively driven out coronavirus, analysis of official data shows.
Ward-level data on positive coronavirus tests shows that 48 million people live in areas of England that have had no confirmed cases in the past four weeks, suggesting that local transmission of the virus has been halted." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-driven-out-in-most-local-areas-rmllw92z2
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed70761 -
Well i don’t know. I notice Ed Davey responding to the PM today by calling for an urgent public inquiry into the Government’s failure to plan for the second wave.stodge said:Evening all
Let's not be too negative - Boris Johnson's path to power was laid out in the poll on June 12th 2019 which showed him to be the only Conservative leadership contender able to win a majority. In a very real sense, the game was up for the Opposition as Boris was the only candidate able to nullify Farage and once that was done defeating the most left-wing Labour leader in history and an LD leader riding roughshod over democracy was a piece of Victoria Sponge.
As to the future, it hasn't happened yet.0 -
Yes and both Tesco's and Sainsbury's have reported big increases in spending on tea, coffee and biscuits. I'm ordering more of my capsules for my coffee machine.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
That's the homeworking revolution in its simplest terms.
I loved our home delivery meat orders - the quality was a million miles ahead of the supermarket crap and a pleasure to cook with. It's a pleasure to spend a little more and get such a leap in quality.
It would be ironic if, having driven local butchers out of business, the supermarkets were run out of town by proper meat wholesalers.1 -
What we've saved in petrol was offset by having to buy a new car battery.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
1 -
Snap. Batteries going flat all over the place.SandyRentool said:
What we've saved in petrol was offset by having to buy a new car battery.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
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So it's sentiment based because it's a survey, but it does ask the questions - is your business growing, are you bringing in new orders, are you increasing employment so there is empirical value. I think they also weight the index by size of the client being asked, so if HSBC gave positive answers to all three that isn't negated by a cafe owner saying no to all three despite both of them being in the same index.stodge said:
If it's simply a measure of sentiment, it has little or no empirical value. People relieved at being back open and in business would regard any trade as an improvement and considerable growth on a month where they did no trade at all.MaxPB said:
Hmm, that's not as I understand it, the PMIs are relative to 50, above 50 is GDP growth and below is a contraction. 57 is a good figure but it's relative to the 14 we had in April so we're seeing high growth from a lowish base.
Edit: I see we're in agreement. Though we're talking across purposes to some degree with Stodge. 57 is growth, but from a low base, they aren't benchmarked against the previous month, however, it's just a balance of sentiment.
Yet, the volume of trade, though much greater than a month with no trade at all. might still be well below the volumes before Covid.
Statistics like this are then used as political weapons - gosh, a PMI of 57, the economy must be growing strongly. Well, yes, but it's not back where it was.
If you have 100 in February and fall 25% that takes you to 75 - if you then rebound 20% you don't get to 95 but to 90. I don't think many people understand the nuance and see the figures as better than they really are but then that's probably the point if I'm being cynical.0 -
The PMI question - IIRC - is literally "are sales higher, lower, or the same as last month".MaxPB said:
Hmm, that's not as I understand it, the PMIs are relative to 50, above 50 is GDP growth and below is a contraction. 57 is a good figure but it's relative to the 14 we had in April so we're seeing high growth from a lowish base.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
50
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53
54
55
56
57
59
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
Edit: I see we're in agreement. Though we're talking across purposes to some degree with Stodge. 57 is growth, but from a low base, they aren't benchmarked against the previous month, however, it's just a balance of sentiment.0 -
We have been fortunate in having a very good butcher in our village. We also signed up for fish deliveries from Grimsby and have been supplementing our own fruit and veg with stuff from the local farm shop. All of these have thrived in the lockdown.stodge said:
The big change has been the growth of online sales - this notion people stopped spending isn't true. People simply went online - we ordered meat, fruit, veg and a whole lot of stuff online in April and May. We did big buying less often and I think that was typical.Philip_Thompson said:Stodge: 1.9% down on June 2019 is quite impressive I think given much was still locked down then. Most shops only reopened mid June.
Online as 32% of retail sales is a seismic shift from 20% pre-Covid and while I'm sure some pent-up demand was behind the initial push back in offline retailing, the evidence I'm seeing is shops are quiet again.
The other consequence of not travelling was the falloff in fuel sales - we stopped buying petrol because we weren't going anywhere. I suspect one of the consequences of the homeworking revolution will be fewer miles driven and while I'm not unhappy at the environmental impact, I have to say the return of traffic jams on the A406 is disappointingly predictable.
We still do one shopping trip to a supermarket a week for general consumables etc but a hefty part of the spend that was not already directed locally has now transferred there. Nor will it return to the supermarkets.0 -
The iron fist of the feared Yestapo finally removes its velvet glove.
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1286596032990547970?s=200 -
Yes if the questions are reflective of where you are based on where you immediately were, if the latter was no trade and no orders then anything would be an improvement.MaxPB said:
So it's sentiment based because it's a survey, but it does ask the questions - is your business growing, are you bringing in new orders, are you increasing employment so there is empirical value. I think they also weight the index by size of the client being asked, so if HSBC gave positive answers to all three that isn't negated by a cafe owner saying no to all three despite both of them being in the same index.
I'm trying to get a sense of where we are based on where we were this time last year rather than where we were this time last month and on that basis the monthly PMIs are perhaps not as valuable a tool as I had hoped (those these are exceptional times).
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Texas would mean a massive win for Biden.rottenborough said:
But I still wouldn't have money on him until he survives a couple of debates....0 -
The numbers I quote are for economic output, not PMIs.RobD said:
Wouldn't it have been growing for 12 months? Anything above 50 is growth.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
59
60
61
Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.0 -
Getting fresh veg and salad boxes from local farmers courtesy of the village shop.stodge said:
Yes and both Tesco's and Sainsbury's have reported big increases in spending on tea, coffee and biscuits. I'm ordering more of my capsules for my coffee machine.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
That's the homeworking revolution in its simplest terms.
I loved our home delivery meat orders - the quality was a million miles ahead of the supermarket crap and a pleasure to cook with. It's a pleasure to spend a little more and get such a leap in quality.
It would be ironic if, having driven local butchers out of business, the supermarkets were run out of town by proper meat wholesalers.
Much tastier than from supermarket. And quite astonishing how much longer it stays fresh for.
Not to mention the lack of air/road miles.
Also. Nice to be surprised by what arrives rather than mindlessly buying the same things. Have discovered I like radishes.0 -
My post was not clear.Philip_Thompson said:
Shurely shome mishtake?rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
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53
54
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56
57
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Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
That looks like it should be massively positive to me.
I thought any PMI of 50 was even, then anything more than 50 is positive, so the 100 is a massive positive at the start followed by staying still in month two, then 11 months gradually positive?
Those numbers are not PMIs, but total economic output / sales. Because I put them on what appeared to be a 1-100 scale, it made them look very different...0 -
Because there was no way of knowing if a supermarket was the cause. No one was checking.Pagan2 said:
Yes I am enjoying lockdown entirelyPhilip_Thompson said:
And you can visit family and friends.Pagan2 said:
and the only difference between now and then is they opened bars restaurants and non essential shops....its not the huge step change you claim.Philip_Thompson said:
We had no spikes because we were locked down. We don't need to be locked down anymore. Other restrictions are ending not just pubs etcPagan2 said:
People havent had to wear masks in shops we have had no spikes because of it.Philip_Thompson said:
You'd literally rather bankrupt plenty of people's businesses and livelihoods and leave millions out of work than see people wearing a cloth mask? Madness.Pagan2 said:
But we aren't being asked to wear masks in shops to save lives we are being asked to wear masks in shops so they can shave a little of the R0 number so they can justify opening bars and restaurants again.kyf_100 said:
What gets me is I don't see anyone arguing against underpants. Society deems it necessary that we cover our junk out of decency and even the libertarians amongst us are pretty happy we live in a society where pants-wearing is enforced.glw said:
What gets me are the idiots who argue that because masks are imperfect we shouldn't bother with them. An "argument" that applies to essentially everything. I could beat those people with a big stick.rcs1000 said:Masks.
The primary goal is not to prevent you being infected, it is to prevent you from spreading the disease to other people.
It is transmitted via when people breath, or sing, or sneeze, or play beer pong.
When people wear masks, a large portion of droplets and aerosols from the upper repository tract are trapped, and even those that do depart the mouth and nose, go less far.
If everyone wore masks it would not completely stop CV19 transmission. However, it would make it much less likely that people with CV19 passed it on to other people unknowingly.
This is not complicated.
So everyone is cool with the state legislating to make sure we cover up our bits in public, but when the state asks us to put a cloth covering over our faces to actually save lives, people lose their minds. Madness.
Inconvenience 100% in the hope of offsetting the disease spreading of the 30% that want to go have a pint or meal inside. Thankfully from what I see masks are being largely ignored here at least by small shops.
I am not aware of many if any hotspots that have been traced back to a supermarket, bars restaurants and nightclubs however. I personally would rather the last 3 had been left shut and think that we will have many hotspots crop up due to them
Other countries have opened bars and clubs and have new spikes. Me wearing a mask in a shop won't make any difference to the spread.
Frankly if reopening pubs means lots of new spikes and deaths then keep them closed. People will have to find other jobs. I hear lots are being created in delivery services.
And you can go into peoples homes.
And you the vulnerable are coming out of shielding.
And millions are going back to work.
And you can go on holiday.
And you can play sport.
And you can go to theatres, cinemas and other entertainment.
And you can go to gyms.
And preschools have reopened.
And schools are reopening.
And people are going back to sports stadia next month.
And more and more and more
Life is getting back to normal. In order to get back to normal we need to wear a mask because the mask cuts transmission instead of being in lockdown. You seriously would rather remain under lockdown for another 12 months rather than wear a mask?
as to all those things most of them werent actually happening
Schools are reopening in september supposedly but I will believe that when it happens.
most of the things though like cinema's and theatres aren't going to happen either because it won't pay to reopen them. Permission to reopen isn't the same as reopening and you think all we need to do is wear masks in shops where there are no recorded resurgences despite the fact that throughout lockdown people were visiting shops maskless. There will be a resurgence and it will be people like you that cause it. In the mean time you are merely trying to incovenience the rest of us by your pal Boris pretending to take meaningful action.
Evidence within 3 days of the pub opening how many shut down again due to viral spread only was quite a few wasn't it.....how many supermarkets closed due to being the centre of viral spread during lockdown when people were going there maskless oh thats right it was a big fat zero!
More straw man arguments from you.2 -
@CatMan save all the gloating until we see what actually happens.2
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I think they ask a few more these days about order books and employment and I don't think they say last month, it's asked in isolation.rcs1000 said:
The PMI question - IIRC - is literally "are sales higher, lower, or the same as last month".MaxPB said:
Hmm, that's not as I understand it, the PMIs are relative to 50, above 50 is GDP growth and below is a contraction. 57 is a good figure but it's relative to the 14 we had in April so we're seeing high growth from a lowish base.rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
59
60
61
Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
Edit: I see we're in agreement. Though we're talking across purposes to some degree with Stodge. 57 is growth, but from a low base, they aren't benchmarked against the previous month, however, it's just a balance of sentiment.0 -
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:
1 -
I think we need to differentiate between central Government planning and local Government planning. It's been my experience local councils are excellent at hoping for the best and planning for the worst.alex_ said:
Well i don’t know. I notice Ed Davey responding to the PM today by calling for an urgent public inquiry into the Government’s failure to plan for the second wave.stodge said:Evening all
Let's not be too negative - Boris Johnson's path to power was laid out in the poll on June 12th 2019 which showed him to be the only Conservative leadership contender able to win a majority. In a very real sense, the game was up for the Opposition as Boris was the only candidate able to nullify Farage and once that was done defeating the most left-wing Labour leader in history and an LD leader riding roughshod over democracy was a piece of Victoria Sponge.
As to the future, it hasn't happened yet.
As to "planning for a second wave", the question will be the severity and virulence of such a wave. I'm yet to be convinced there will be a "second wave" but it will be interesting to see if those jetting off on holiday this weekend will impact the figures in three or four weeks time.
We have done extraordinarily well in this country to beat down the virus though I re-iterate there are still people suffering from it (my brother being one example) and others for whom the long term effects will be considerable in terms of the damage the virus has done.0 -
Hooray. May it continue to last.rottenborough said:
He's eaten at least one in the last few years, has he not suffered enough?CatMan said:
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:0 -
Try roasting the radishes. Was very pleasantly surprised the first time I did.dixiedean said:
Getting fresh veg and salad boxes from local farmers courtesy of the village shop.stodge said:
Yes and both Tesco's and Sainsbury's have reported big increases in spending on tea, coffee and biscuits. I'm ordering more of my capsules for my coffee machine.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
That's the homeworking revolution in its simplest terms.
I loved our home delivery meat orders - the quality was a million miles ahead of the supermarket crap and a pleasure to cook with. It's a pleasure to spend a little more and get such a leap in quality.
It would be ironic if, having driven local butchers out of business, the supermarkets were run out of town by proper meat wholesalers.
Much tastier than from supermarket. And quite astonishing how much longer it stays fresh for.
Not to mention the lack of air/road miles.
Also. Nice to be surprised by what arrives rather than mindlessly buying the same things. Have discovered I like radishes.
0 -
I don't think your experience or mine is atypical. We found an excellent meat supplier who normally supplied to the restaurant trade (and I now understand a little more of restaurant economics) but immediately went into home delivery and has recruited additional drivers and staff to deal with the demand.Richard_Tyndall said:
We have been fortunate in having a very good butcher in our village. We also signed up for fish deliveries from Grimsby and have been supplementing our own fruit and veg with stuff from the local farm shop. All of these have thrived in the lockdown.
We still do one shopping trip to a supermarket a week for general consumables etc but a hefty part of the spend that was not already directed locally has now transferred there. Nor will it return to the supermarkets.
Yes, it's more expensive than supermarket but the quality more than compensates. It is a joy to cook with meat of that quality and taste and with homeworking I now have the time to be artistic in the kitchen (no giggling in the cheap seats).
1 -
I think there is a chance, probably still less than 50%. But I also want it to happen as I want Trump to get less than 100 EC votes, just for the humiliation value.CatMan said:
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:3 -
Right that makes sense. The fact that the post started with "You are correct about the PMIs" and then a 1-100 scale in the numbers made it seem like those were PMI numbers.rcs1000 said:
My post was not clear.Philip_Thompson said:
Shurely shome mishtake?rcs1000 said:
You are correct about the PMIs. If economic output went:stodge said:Having trivialised death via spreadsheets and graph, the economy is the next victim of statistical trivialisation.
The Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers released this morning "look" very good but are they all they seem? As far as I am aware, they are benchmarked against the previous month rather than against an absolute so 56 looks good but it looks good relative to 47 in June.
Shops have re-opened and pent-up demand was released and that shows in the figures but to what extent is this a "pulse" of growth followed by a return to a more subdued economy (more W than V if you will)?
It's clear spending is still happening but online rather than on the High Street and that may be the future. Instead of buying expensive swill at Pret A Manger and brackish brew from Starbucks (better than drinking mud), we are buying supermarket coffee and biscuits so Tesco's and Sainsbury's pick up the slack.
10,000 jobs created in home and online delivery services - that's capitalism for you.
The other aspect is the use of percentages - we are meant to coo in wonder and awe as retail sales leap 14% in a month (albeit from a very low base). The actual numbers are 1.9% down in June 2019 but that masks the new imbalance between online and offline sales.
Pre-Covid 20% of sales were online - that is now a third. That's a significant shift.
100
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
59
60
61
Then PMIs would have been positive for 11 months of the year, even though economic output was down massively.
That looks like it should be massively positive to me.
I thought any PMI of 50 was even, then anything more than 50 is positive, so the 100 is a massive positive at the start followed by staying still in month two, then 11 months gradually positive?
Those numbers are not PMIs, but total economic output / sales. Because I put them on what appeared to be a 1-100 scale, it made them look very different...
Yes absolutely if that's total output scaled to 100 that makes much more sense!0 -
Yes. We were good at snuffing it out. Poor at letting it get a hold. Hopefully we've learned.stodge said:
I think we need to differentiate between central Government planning and local Government planning. It's been my experience local councils are excellent at hoping for the best and planning for the worst.alex_ said:
Well i don’t know. I notice Ed Davey responding to the PM today by calling for an urgent public inquiry into the Government’s failure to plan for the second wave.stodge said:Evening all
Let's not be too negative - Boris Johnson's path to power was laid out in the poll on June 12th 2019 which showed him to be the only Conservative leadership contender able to win a majority. In a very real sense, the game was up for the Opposition as Boris was the only candidate able to nullify Farage and once that was done defeating the most left-wing Labour leader in history and an LD leader riding roughshod over democracy was a piece of Victoria Sponge.
As to the future, it hasn't happened yet.
As to "planning for a second wave", the question will be the severity and virulence of such a wave. I'm yet to be convinced there will be a "second wave" but it will be interesting to see if those jetting off on holiday this weekend will impact the figures in three or four weeks time.
We have done extraordinarily well in this country to beat down the virus though I re-iterate there are still people suffering from it (my brother being one example) and others for whom the long term effects will be considerable in terms of the damage the virus has done.
Don't fancy another successful beat down.1 -
May we giggle in the expensive seats?stodge said:
Yes, it's more expensive than supermarket but the quality more than compensates. It is a joy to cook with meat of that quality and taste and with homeworking I now have the time to be artistic in the kitchen (no giggling in the cheap seats).1 -
luv u0
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Depends whether the polls are reliable. They were pretty inaccurate last time.rottenborough said:0 -
Not just the humiliation.TimT said:
I think there is a chance, probably still less than 50%. But I also want it to happen as I want Trump to get less than 100 EC votes, just for the humiliation value.CatMan said:
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:
It has to be clear he has been absolutely slaughtered so that no amount of crap from him about rigged election and refusing to leave the WH will be tolerated by anyone other than a few last nutcases.
0 -
We are lucky also to be in a rural setting, so able to get farm to table meat, veg and fish (well, trawler to table for the last). So much better for a modest premium.stodge said:
I don't think your experience or mine is atypical. We found an excellent meat supplier who normally supplied to the restaurant trade (and I now understand a little more of restaurant economics) but immediately went into home delivery and has recruited additional drivers and staff to deal with the demand.Richard_Tyndall said:
We have been fortunate in having a very good butcher in our village. We also signed up for fish deliveries from Grimsby and have been supplementing our own fruit and veg with stuff from the local farm shop. All of these have thrived in the lockdown.
We still do one shopping trip to a supermarket a week for general consumables etc but a hefty part of the spend that was not already directed locally has now transferred there. Nor will it return to the supermarkets.
Yes, it's more expensive than supermarket but the quality more than compensates. It is a joy to cook with meat of that quality and taste and with homeworking I now have the time to be artistic in the kitchen (no giggling in the cheap seats).1 -
Not sure if you missed my point that Davey was calling for an inquiry (obviously for the purpose of apportioning blame since all the Opposition politicians already seem to possess supreme certainty in what the Govt did wrong and why) into something that hasn’t even happened (or allegedly not happened) yet.stodge said:
I think we need to differentiate between central Government planning and local Government planning. It's been my experience local councils are excellent at hoping for the best and planning for the worst.alex_ said:
Well i don’t know. I notice Ed Davey responding to the PM today by calling for an urgent public inquiry into the Government’s failure to plan for the second wave.stodge said:Evening all
Let's not be too negative - Boris Johnson's path to power was laid out in the poll on June 12th 2019 which showed him to be the only Conservative leadership contender able to win a majority. In a very real sense, the game was up for the Opposition as Boris was the only candidate able to nullify Farage and once that was done defeating the most left-wing Labour leader in history and an LD leader riding roughshod over democracy was a piece of Victoria Sponge.
As to the future, it hasn't happened yet.
As to "planning for a second wave", the question will be the severity and virulence of such a wave. I'm yet to be convinced there will be a "second wave" but it will be interesting to see if those jetting off on holiday this weekend will impact the figures in three or four weeks time.
We have done extraordinarily well in this country to beat down the virus though I re-iterate there are still people suffering from it (my brother being one example) and others for whom the long term effects will be considerable in terms of the damage the virus has done.0 -
I'd expect nothing less than a ribald chortle, sir.Richard_Nabavi said:
May we giggle in the expensive seats?stodge said:
Yes, it's more expensive than supermarket but the quality more than compensates. It is a joy to cook with meat of that quality and taste and with homeworking I now have the time to be artistic in the kitchen (no giggling in the cheap seats).0 -
In the Midwest they were pretty inaccurate - which is what swung it - but elsewhere I thought it was reasonably accurate?Andy_JS said:
Depends whether the polls are reliable. They were pretty inaccurate last time.rottenborough said:
Interesting Texas was actually closer than the polls suggested, not that it mattered. But a similar bias this time would be fun . . .0 -
Will give it a whirl. Not sure where I got the idea I didn't like them. Seems utterly bizarre now. An unexamined assumption or habit?TimT said:
Try roasting the radishes. Was very pleasantly surprised the first time I did.dixiedean said:
Getting fresh veg and salad boxes from local farmers courtesy of the village shop.stodge said:
Yes and both Tesco's and Sainsbury's have reported big increases in spending on tea, coffee and biscuits. I'm ordering more of my capsules for my coffee machine.Philip_Thompson said:My experience is similar stodge. I had to buy petrol for the first time in nearly two months last week. Bought myself an at-home milk frother to make lattes/cappuccinos at home to replace my takeaway coffees. Other than that coping but definitely spending more than 1.9% less than I was previously.
That's the homeworking revolution in its simplest terms.
I loved our home delivery meat orders - the quality was a million miles ahead of the supermarket crap and a pleasure to cook with. It's a pleasure to spend a little more and get such a leap in quality.
It would be ironic if, having driven local butchers out of business, the supermarkets were run out of town by proper meat wholesalers.
Much tastier than from supermarket. And quite astonishing how much longer it stays fresh for.
Not to mention the lack of air/road miles.
Also. Nice to be surprised by what arrives rather than mindlessly buying the same things. Have discovered I like radishes.
Lockdown has been pretty good at exposing a few of those.0 -
I've projected 413-125 in the EC votes based on tonight's Fox News polls which show very similar movement across the three battleground states.TimT said:
I think there is a chance, probably still less than 50%. But I also want it to happen as I want Trump to get less than 100 EC votes, just for the humiliation value.CatMan said:
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:
I do agree it will be to the long term benefit of the Republican Party for Trump to be, in electoral terms and to borrow a phrase oft used by TSE of this parish, "pounded like a dockside hooker".
There's nothing more final for a populist than being shown to be massively unpopular.1 -
I wonder how Johnson will be seen in a similar timeframestodge said:
I've projected 413-125 in the EC votes based on tonight's Fox News polls which show very similar movement across the three battleground states.TimT said:
I think there is a chance, probably still less than 50%. But I also want it to happen as I want Trump to get less than 100 EC votes, just for the humiliation value.CatMan said:
I really hope Texas goes Democrat. Not because it means Trump definitively loses, but because TSE has to eat a pineapple pizzarottenborough said:
I do agree it will be to the long term benefit of the Republican Party for Trump to be, in electoral terms and to borrow a phrase oft used by TSE of this parish, "pounded like a dockside hooker".
There's nothing more final for a populist than being shown to be massively unpopular.1 -
I didn't know they could do so now.CorrectHorseBattery said:0
