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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50m of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day
Above is a screenshot of the Betfair market on who will be next president. We’ve talked about the odds on this for well over a year but what is striking this afternoon is how close the total matched is to £50m. That we should get to that sort of total with more than 3 months to go until November 2nd is quite extraordinary and this will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of all time.
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"The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50"
I would just like to point out that at the GE 2019, I was telling people how much Corbyn was loathed, no one seemed to take it seriously. Loathed just about describes it correctly, if you put utterly in front of it.
Thanks, once again, to Mr. B who tipped at 36 and 12 (presidency and nomination respectively).
I know many others here will be far greener but given my very ropey history in such things glad to be green.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers
So we have established that we can control this at a very considerable cost. We may need to keep doing that (the handwashing, the masks, the social distancing, the limited use of public transport etc) until we have working vaccines. We are rolling the dice that one or more of those trials comes off.
The tricky one is schools. We need to get our kids back to school but if anything is going to cause infections to take off again it is surely that. Scottish schools are due to go back in a month. We won't have a vaccine by then.
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
eg Spain, France, Germany
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/24/europe-warns-of-need-for-vigilance-as-covid-19-cases-rise-sharply
Also Australia
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-coronavirus-cases-surge-as-nine-in-ten-ignore-isolation-rules-lxpj02djp
"Australia coronavirus cases surge as ‘nine in ten ignore isolation rules’"
And there are others.
I am a bit reminded of Boris's run for the Tory leadership. So many, talking with their hearts, said that he was in trouble for this and that, that this was going to damage his campaign, etc etc. But the reality was that it wasn't close at the end and never had been. I very much hope that in November we will sigh with relief and realise the same of this buffoon.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Pope living very dangerously here.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
Speaking more broadly, it looks like both of those countries are experiencing difficulty keeping a lid on cases at the moment, whereas hospitalisations, ICU beds and the 7-day average for deaths (even accounting for PHE's bent statistics) continue to trend steadily downwards in the UK, and the slight increase in new cases appears to be a function of blanket testing in the remaining hotspots rather than the disease taking off again amongst the population at large. Now, are we just trending behind Spain and France, so that we might expect things to start to go pear-shaped in the near future, or is the UK doing something fundamentally different that's keeping the dreaded R number in check? Is it something as simple as our twenty-somethings choosing, for whatever reason, not to go out boozing very much, coupled with the fact that the nightclubs have been kept closed?
At the apotheosis of the May premiership in early 2017 the Tories led on this metric occasionally.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Starmer:
A: 37%
D : 23%
NET: +14% (-4)
Sturgeon:
A: 37%
D : 30%
NET: +7% (-6)
Johnson:
A: 43%
D : 38%
NET: +5% (-5)
Berry/Bartley:
A: 17%
D : 20%
NET: -3% (-4)
Davey/Pack:
A: 15%
D : 22%
NET: -7% (-4)
Which political party do you trust the most…
With the economy?
CON: 41%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To tackle poverty?
LAB: 37%
CON: 27%
OTH: 15%
To tackle crime?
CON: 38%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To support the NHS?
LAB: 37%
CON: 31%
OTH: 14%
With immigration?
CON: 36%
LAB: 23%
OTH: 17%
To protect the environment?
CON: 26%
LAB: 22%
GRN: 20%
OTH: 12%
To support the education system?
CON: 33%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 17%
With foreign affairs?
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 16%
To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
Support: 60%
Oppose: 11%
He just did not understand what was coming down the track.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Telegraph
Kids, fortunately, don't seem very contagious even when they get CV-19.
Result, R probably hovering around the 0.9 to 1.4 range, with real - but probably not excessive - economic damage while we await the roll out of a vaccine early next year.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1286682796803731456?s=20
I can accept that there might be almost valid arguments against mask wearing (thought most of the exponents are piss poor at making them), but Covid-19 not existing isn't one of them.
The 111 call data, numbers in hospital etc are all falling.
Large areas of the country have extremely low levels of COVID19. The issue is some hotspots.
The apparent levelling off in cases is almost certainly due to extensive use of Pillar 2 tests in those hotspots.
We should shortly (I hope) get data with the Pillar 1 and 2 separated, which will make judgements easier.
See -
(I was guilty of this a find manager on a number of occasions. I bought Amazon at $14, and it rapidly quadrupled. I sold it and told my colleagues how smart I was, and how stupid they were to buy it when it had just shot up. When they were still holding it at $600, I was the one who looked like the idiot.)
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
I believe it's better to err on the side of caution, and use masks, but the Swedish example is perplexing
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.
He's arguing that masks *cause* Covid.
It is no surprise that Labour are ahead on the NHS and Poverty, nor that the Tories are ahead on Immigration and tackling crime. I am perhaps a little more surprised to see such a healthy lead for the Tories on the economy. But really amazed to see the Tories ahead on Education and protecting the environment.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)
I ask, since the Pillar 1 tests seem to be running in the order of 0.25% positive and Pillar 2 at something like 0.8%, nationally.
Could be lack of testing in April missing the real caseload. Could be a younger population getting it at the moment, and therefore having better survival outcomes.
I don't think it's likely treatment/quality of care is the main factor.
US second peak could conceivably be smaller in mortality than the first one if (and it's a big if) they can get this under control quickly.
The question is what is happening now.
Note these were small shops not tesco's havent been there since the "ban" so cant comment
Back in March, when ministers and senior Government advisers were telling people that masks outside clinical settings were worse than useless, either they were telling the truth (and have since changed their minds,) or they were lying because they didn't trust the public not to fly into a complete panic and try to buy up any medical grade masks they could get their hands on, as opposed to accepting a rational request to stick to cloth masks and leave medical masks for medical professionals.
If it's the latter then one feels obliged to remark that the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. Any conceivable good that might have been achieved by way of keeping a few boxes of N95 masks out of the hands of a handful of panic buyers on Amazon has been more than negated by the fact that the population, or a large section of it at any rate, must now feel that it cannot trust the Establishment to tell it the truth about these matters. Thus, even if masks in non-clinical settings are of some conceivable use, citizens will either refuse to wear them anyway, or only do it because it's not worth the hassle not to (in which case the masks are liable to be treated with contempt, e.g. by being worn as necklaces unless or until the wearer is cajoled into pulling them up by an authority figure, and they really will prove worse than useless as was originally claimed.)
Perhaps the mask manufacturers are in on it too.
Now where did I leave my tinfoil hat?...
He’s not giving me the vibe of permanence.
EDIT: For the avoidance of doubt, I am joking. This is a joke.
The bar chart (see below) I was talking about shows the all settings data for England, by day of death - the one based on the death of anyone who has ever been diagnosed with COVID. In or out of hospital.
I think this is care homes combining with the flaw in the date for PHE.
It is worth remembering that all care home patients have been tested for COVID and all are getting tested weekly which means any COVID patient who has had th virus since testing became widespread is known about.
And care home residents die on average within a year of admission. They don't have a long life expectancy.
So any care home resident who has tested positive, recovered, then later dies of natural causes (as they're expected to do within a year) gets recorded as a COVID death by PHE.
It wouldn't surprise me if hundreds or even thousands of care home residents a month who have recovered from COVID are dying of entirely natural causes and PHE are erroneously recording them as COVID deaths.