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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Davey moves to a 65% chance on Betfair for the LD leadership

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    £1.2m?

    I know that will only get one a cupboard under the stairs in Carlton Hill, St Johns Wood or a car parking space in Mayfair, but it is hardly modest.

    The man on the Clapham Omnibus speaks...again.
    One of my favourites is that the hovel that Bob Cratchett was said to live in up in Camden now goes for about that.

    London is different, it is a city of the world where the rich of the world come to play. We benefit from this and should not begrudge it but I am glad I don't have to live there.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,302
    Gadfly said:

    Is square footage measured internally or externally? If the latter, I would imagine the likes of cavity walls and cladding could make a significant difference.
    £1300psf is still very expensive. I've just done a quick calc on my house in the Peak District, which is a far nicer place than Richmond, and think it's probably currently worth £150 to £200 psf (I've only roughly estimated the footprint).
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Could be a rush before mandatory face coverings.
    Why would anyone want to rush before the sensible extra protection of something so simple as wearing a mask is required. Stupid bloody thought process trying to justify not wearing masks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Charles said:

    She is only a Director so couldn’t afford much more. But she got a nice house in a slightly less fashionable part of Richmond with a small garden and a park nearby.
    Sounds like a good deal, I've been eyeing up a new place, not sure whether to stay in Hampstead or head to outer London.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    theProle said:

    £1300psf is still very expensive. I've just done a quick calc on my house in the Peak District, which is a far nicer place than Richmond, and think it's probably currently worth £150 to £200 psf (I've only roughly estimated the footprint).
    Richmond is great, have you ever been? It's got amazing green spaces, Kew gardens nearby, striking distance to London, it's a really nice place to live.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    nichomar said:

    Why would anyone want to rush before the sensible extra protection of something so simple as wearing a mask is required. Stupid bloody thought process trying to justify not wearing masks.
    I'm in favour of them, my other half will wwear them but isn't looking forward to it - as it'll be mandated she will however. We know the public is split, though I suspect once they are normalised people will be happier about it but I think people definitely will be heading to the shops before they're mandatory to do voluntary shopping.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    Charles said:

    I don’t know the details of the law, but it seems very reasonable that she should have the right to appeal the judgement and if that needs to be in the U.K. then so be it.

    What will he more troubling is if, say, she loses the case and then claims asylum for example. I think it would be entirely reasonable to give her a limited license to return, solely for the purpose of the appeal.
    The government legislated some years ago now (during May's time I think) to allow out of country appeals where you got sent away but could appeal the decision from wherever you had been sent. My friends who deal with this sort of thing explain that the exception is cases where it is thought that it is not possible to have effective representation from abroad. I don't know the details of this case but that is the conclusion that the court must have reached, possibly because of her age.

    Of course in the world of Covid we are all taking instructions remotely from clients pretty much all of the time. The argument that this impedes the defence is going to be harder to make.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    Charles said:

    He took the simpler approach of not giving me a lot of money when I was young! My pocket money was about a third of my peers! It felt crap at the time, but in hindsight the amount that went up in smoke or up their noses... and the impact it had on their future life opportunities... he was right.

    My inheritance is the charitable trust he founded.
    Ah Ok. I was just keen to lever a Gatsby ref in. I'm sure there's no actual resemblance. Gatsby is a very American tale.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't think its shallow - most people like to see nice things even if they don't own them - most people are curious and on average the life of the wealthy are more interesting (even if only because they are different to the lifestyle normally encountered) . Its the same with other "lucky" attributes like intelligence, sporting talent or beauty - people like to see these extremes -its why people watch the Olympics , watch University Challenge or admire Newton or Einstein or want to go out with a supermodel.
    I was meaning the lifestyle, not the vicarious enjoyment.

    It’s an endless round of parties with the same people talking about who said what to who. Ugh *shudders*
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,684
    A counterpoint to some of the fading antibody response stories....

    SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1.full.pdf
    Questions regarding the robustness, functionality and longevity of the antibody response to the virus remain unanswered. Here we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust IgG antibody responses against the viral spike protein, based on a dataset of 19,860 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We also show that titers are stable for at least a period approximating three months, and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2.
    Our data suggests that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectible neutralizing antibody responses and that these titers are stable for at least the near-term future.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    nichomar said:

    Why would anyone want to rush before the sensible extra protection of something so simple as wearing a mask is required. Stupid bloody thought process trying to justify not wearing masks.
    I did wear a mask yesterday at the hairdressers and also in a small shop. However, Asda and B & Q had a very small number of people wearing masks.

    For my own part I will wear one in confined spaces and small shops, despite my copd, but outside in town and generally I will keep to social distancing without a mask which I do not like wearing due to copd
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,254
    Charles said:

    Hence the comment “London is expensive”.

    I was criticising the evidence provided not the conclusion.

    I don’t know why you feel the need to make personal attacks.
    No personal "attack" intended. I was merely pointing out a wildly differing perspective on "value". If any offence was caused I can only apologise and shuffle off with my tail between my legs
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Charles said:

    I was meaning the lifestyle, not the vicarious enjoyment.

    It’s an endless round of parties with the same people talking about who said what to who. Ugh *shudders*
    Made in Belgravia?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like a good deal, I've been eyeing up a new place, not sure whether to stay in Hampstead or head to outer London.
    Seller was a small time developer who needed to shift stock to release capital for his next project. I had fun helping her with the negotiation 😁
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    The last point is the key to this. We cannot have more lockdowns because of an apparent spike in cases which has not actually been caused by the virus at all.
    To be fair I think that official decisions are going to be more focussed on case numbers etc than deaths. But I suspect that the general public are far more focussed on the deaths figures. And it is the attitude of the general public which is possibly the greatest barrier to economic recovery.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Charles said:

    Seller was a small time developer who needed to shift stock to release capital for his next project. I had fun helping her with the negotiation 😁
    I might do what I did this time and go and get an auction property. I've been very lucky with the housing market, twice I've more than doubled my initial price, it's put in a position to get a pretty reasonably sized 3 or 4 bedroom house now depending on the area.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    HMG has announced that vouchers for cancelled holidays due to covid 19 will be Atol protected meaning their money is protected even if the tour operator goes into adminstration

    It is acts like this that really matter to the public, not the machinations of the political elite
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850

    HMG has announced that vouchers for cancelled holidays due to covid 19 will be Atol protected meaning their money is protected even if the tour operator goes into adminstration

    It is acts like this that really matter to the public, not the machinations of the political elite

    Is Atol Atol protected? Probably needs to be at this rate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    alex_ said:

    To be fair I think that official decisions are going to be more focussed on case numbers etc than deaths. But I suspect that the general public are far more focussed on the deaths figures. And it is the attitude of the general public which is possibly the greatest barrier to economic recovery.

    Agreed. Its why I have reservations about the endemic use of masks. Its not that I don't believe them to be useful at the margins, its more that they create a mindset of caution and fear. Hopefully we will get used to them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546
    alex_ said:

    To be fair I think that official decisions are going to be more focussed on case numbers etc than deaths. But I suspect that the general public are far more focussed on the deaths figures. And it is the attitude of the general public which is possibly the greatest barrier to economic recovery.
    I think that is absolutely correct. People are terrified of normal activities (enough are at any rate) even with mitigation measures (in fact the measures, though necessary, probably reinforce the terror of doing something normal), so even though the government will increasingly encourage people to get back out there, I don't think that in itself will see it happen as they want.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Is Atol Atol protected? Probably needs to be at this rate.
    The government must be underwriting it at this stage.
  • MaxPB said:

    Richmond is great, have you ever been? It's got amazing green spaces, Kew gardens nearby, striking distance to London, it's a really nice place to live.
    "Richmond is great, have you ever been?"
    That's the trouble with Londoners, they think it's the be all and end all. There are other places to live than Richmond. I've never been to Richmond, have no interest in ever going there and will hopefully never have to go there. I'm certain I can find exactly the same peace and happiness, with amazing green spaces, access to cities, parks and places of interest where I live. Or in other parts of the country. Probably.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    No personal "attack" intended. I was merely pointing out a wildly differing perspective on "value". If any offence was caused I can only apologise and shuffle off with my tail between my legs
    Thank you
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Made in Belgravia?
    Nah Belgravia’s ok. It’s the weekends in the south of France that are so damn tedious.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2020
    ..
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,502
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh please. They're perfectly nice and all, but they're not exactly Hampstead.
    Yes, they have that benefit too.

    And the river.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    Is Atol Atol protected? Probably needs to be at this rate.
    Yes - HMG will step in if necessary.

    Good move to protect the holiday industry by guaranteeing the voucher scheme
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    "Richmond is great, have you ever been?"
    That's the trouble with Londoners, they think it's the be all and end all. There are other places to live than Richmond. I've never been to Richmond, have no interest in ever going there and will hopefully never have to go there. I'm certain I can find exactly the same peace and happiness, with amazing green spaces, access to cities, parks and places of interest where I live. Or in other parts of the country. Probably.
    You're inferring a lot there. I could easily say the same the other way around that people not from London assume that it's an urban jungle of concrete and glass and think it's crap. I won't though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Richmond is great, have you ever been? It's got amazing green spaces, Kew gardens nearby, striking distance to London, it's a really nice place to live.
    You need to watch EA area calcs - very easy to be 10% or even 20% out.

    £150-200 psf sounds quite low for the Peak District, especially for smaller places. Attractive.

    I have a mate developing acre plots in a wooded area around here, and his peak number is something like £250 psf. We are not as salubrious as the Peaks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    This is fun:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53452080/why-i-fell-in-love-with-irish-dancing

    Completely bonkers, but entirely consistent with the arguments of those who go around accusing other people of cultural appropriation.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,502

    "Richmond is great, have you ever been?"
    That's the trouble with Londoners, they think it's the be all and end all. There are other places to live than Richmond. I've never been to Richmond, have no interest in ever going there and will hopefully never have to go there. I'm certain I can find exactly the same peace and happiness, with amazing green spaces, access to cities, parks and places of interest where I live. Or in other parts of the country. Probably.
    The house is Barnes, not Richmond, anyway. Borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, but a) off the Tube b) not really near the Park (though it has its own green spaces) and c) Hammersmith Bridge is often closed, as it is now.

    Good if you want to send your sons to St Paul's though.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited July 2020

    Yes - HMG will step in if necessary.

    Good move to protect the holiday industry by guaranteeing the voucher scheme
    As we discussed many months ago, it is umpteen months after the rest of Europe reacted. So so stupid because it was then it was needed most. People worried about losing their money forcing travel firms out of business by requesting refunds that they would be happy to leave as credits, if the protection was available then. They were protected, until they took the credit.

    If you remember I posted on here the information from the ABTA web site pleading with the Govt to do something, anything, just act to clarify. Months have passed. It is all too late now.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Today, the
    @UN
    updated its #COVID19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan to $10.3 billion.

    If we don't act NOW, the pandemic could
    ➡️ reverse decades of progress in poverty reduction
    ➡️ push 265M people to the brink of starvation
    ➡️ kill 1.67M people in low-income countries

    And we worry about wearing masks And going to the pub.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    DavidL said:


    Oh Charles. For £12.5m you could buy something like 50 fairly decent houses (not as nice as that one admittedly) in Dundee. A house like that would be £500k tops.
    That house isn't even in Richmond; it's in Barnes which is a very poor relation by reputation. Plus you could have Tim Henman for a neighbour :smile: .
  • MattW said:

    This is fun:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53452080/why-i-fell-in-love-with-irish-dancing

    Completely bonkers, but entirely consistent with the arguments of those who go around accusing other people of cultural appropriation.

    She is interviewed in the Guardian as well. She is really talented, but, strictly speaking, it does open up accusations of cultural appropriation. For me, she should be allowed to dance whatever style she likes and wearing whatever outfit she likes, and with whatever hairstyle she likes, but then so should anyone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    nichomar said:

    Why would anyone want to rush before the sensible extra protection of something so simple as wearing a mask is required. Stupid bloody thought process trying to justify not wearing masks.
    Why is this still a point of discussion?

    Wear masks people, there’s a nasty virus going round. Just do it!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    kjh said:

    As we discussed many months ago, it is umpteen months after the rest of Europe reacted. So so stupid because it was then it was needed most. People worried about losing their money forcing travel firms out of business by requesting refunds that they would be happy to leave as credits, if the protection was available then. They were protected, until they took the credit.

    If you remember I posted on here the information from the ABTA web site pleading with the Govt to do something, anything, just act to clarify. Months have passed. It is all too late now.
    With respect it is not too late. Many thousands of holiday makers currently holding vouchers will be delighted, indeed I know three people currently holding vouchers
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    This is fun:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53452080/why-i-fell-in-love-with-irish-dancing

    Completely bonkers, but entirely consistent with the arguments of those who go around accusing other people of cultural appropriation.

    She makes a very smart distinction between appropriation and appreciation
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Fishing said:

    The house is Barnes, not Richmond, anyway. Borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, but a) off the Tube b) not really near the Park (though it has its own green spaces) and c) Hammersmith Bridge is often closed, as it is now.

    Good if you want to send your sons to St Paul's though.
    I guess Heathrow flight path less of a negative at the moment
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Even where my parents live in outer London £1.2m will buy a bog standard 4 bedroom semi at the moment. It's not going to get anything spectacular worth the money.

    £1.2m round these parts :Dhttps://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70911034.html
    Guess it's only a 3 bed though.
  • I'd be looking to buy a flat possibly in Clapham over the next year or two but mentions of Richmond have peaked my curiosity
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,502
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546
    edited July 2020
    MattW said:

    This is fun:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53452080/why-i-fell-in-love-with-irish-dancing

    Completely bonkers, but entirely consistent with the arguments of those who go around accusing other people of cultural appropriation.

    Good for her for finding joy in an element of another culture and going for it. Can you imagine if people followed appopriation arguments through to their conclusion, everyone stuck only enjoying or seeking to emulate things of their own upbringing? Ghastly. You'd have people thinking they have to like irish dancing if they were irish, for example. It's a truly weird concept. She at least seems to make a reasonable distinction about appreciatiating the heritage of something versus borrowing elements with acknowledgement.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616

    She is interviewed in the Guardian as well. She is really talented, but, strictly speaking, it does open up accusations of cultural appropriation. For me, she should be allowed to dance whatever style she likes and wearing whatever outfit she likes, and with whatever hairstyle she likes, but then so should anyone.
    Pretty much agree.

    For me the concept of cultural appropriation is basically a tool for bullying, or 'gaslighting' if you're a person who believes in wider application of that rather bizarre concept.

    Not as good as the Levi Root one, but quite funny.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    Fishing said:

    The house is Barnes, not Richmond, anyway. Borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, but a) off the Tube b) not really near the Park (though it has its own green spaces) and c) Hammersmith Bridge is often closed, as it is now.

    Good if you want to send your sons to St Paul's though.
    Or have me as a neighbour :)
  • Can the Corbynites just fuck off to the SWP and Labour can get back to trying to win elections please. They do not have a majority of opinion over what the left should do.

    I am a leftie, I am not interested in their boring, petty arguments. Let's solve the big problems that actually matter, can't do that if we keep losing.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NEW THREAD
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    MattW said:

    That house isn't even in Richmond; it's in Barnes which is a very poor relation by reputation. Plus you could have Tim Henman for a neighbour :smile: .
    What!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'd be looking to buy a flat possibly in Clapham over the next year or two but mentions of Richmond have peaked my curiosity

    Depends what you are looking for

    Clapham is younger and livelier, more “scene-y” with a better nightlife. Richmond is slightly older (Young couples), more space and parks, more a boutique lifestyle.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    edited July 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    £1.2m round these parts :Dhttps://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70911034.html
    Guess it's only a 3 bed though.
    In Barnes you can get a decent ex Council house for £1.2m with nice gates


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    edited July 2020

    She is interviewed in the Guardian as well. She is really talented, but, strictly speaking, it does open up accusations of cultural appropriation. For me, she should be allowed to dance whatever style she likes and wearing whatever outfit she likes, and with whatever hairstyle she likes, but then so should anyone.
    Absolutely. And anyone doing so with respect, whatever their colour and wherever the dance, clothes or style originates from should be welcomed and free from criticism for it.

    It is possible to do those things without respect, such as blackface as done in the last century, and that should be open to criticism.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited July 2020

    With respect it is not too late. Many thousands of holiday makers currently holding vouchers will be delighted, indeed I know three people currently holding vouchers
    OK so not too late for say 5% but too late for the majority and when it was really needed. And frankly we are in buyer beware territory now for anyone booking a holiday so not so much of an issue.

    When it was needed was when the issue first arose. I had 2 holiday's booked. One was trivial, but the other was a holiday of a lifetime. The travel organiser pleaded with me to take vouchers and I was amenable to it, until I weighed up the risks. The travel organiser was one of the good guys and gave me a full refund.

    THEN was when the protection was needed to transfer the protection from the booked holiday to cover credit vouchers in lieu. Just about every other European country reacted to do so. We did nothing even though ABTA pleaded with the Govt. It put huge unnecessary strain on an industry and left many customers in limbo and at probably no cost at all. In fact it is possible cost more not to do it because by not doing so it will have forced companies out of business incurring a cost to the Govt and customers because of refunds companies had to make that could have been credit notes instead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2020
    kjh said:

    OK so not too late for say 5% but too late for the majority and when it was really needed. And frankly we are in buyer beware territory now for anyone booking a holiday.

    When it was needed was when the issue first arose. I had 2 holiday's booked. One was trivial, but the other was a holiday of a lifetime. The travel organiser pleaded with me to take vouchers and I was amenable to it, until I weighed up the risks. The travel organiser was one of the good guys and gave me a full refund.

    THEN was when the protection was needed to transfer the protection from the booked holiday to cover credit vouchers in lieu. Just about every other European country reacted to do so. We did nothing even though ABTA pleaded with the Govt. It put huge unnecessary strain on an industry and left many customers in limbo and at probably no cost at all. In fact it is possible cost more not to do it because by not doing so it will have forced companies out of business incurring a cost to the Govt and customers.
    That evaluation of 5% vs the majority is entirely a convenient-for-the-argument assumption, is it not :smile: ?

    No idea what the real numbers are, but it could be "say 75%".
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    With respect it is not too late. Many thousands of holiday makers currently holding vouchers will be delighted, indeed I know three people currently holding vouchers
    And what about the holiday companies crippled by the lack of action.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2020
    Barnesian said:

    What!!
    Ooops. Forgot that we had the Honourable Member :smile: .

    I've always seen Barnes as a place or space and garden compared to others, that happens to be 13 minutes from Bank on the tube (or it was when I was living in London).

    Time to go for my daily exercise and weight for the thread to move to the suburbs.

    Update: I see it has moved.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,636

    I ventured for my first haircut in four months yesteday and all was good.

    Appointment only, hand sanitised at door, face mask worn at all times, staff in ppe, and payment at the chair in cash as they are waiting for a contact less machine

    Cost £10 and I gave her a £5 tip wishing her every success.

    It is a high tip but they are only doing 2 haircuts per hour rather than 4 and I really want them to succeed

    Well done, Big G. That was exactly my attitude when I popped in for shearing this week.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    MattW said:

    That evaluation of 5% vs the majority is entirely a convenient-for-the-argument assumption, is it not :smile: ?

    No idea what the real numbers are, but it could be "say 75%".
    Yes I did entirely make up the number and I have absolutely no idea.

    Logically though it was then that it was an issue so no I am pretty sure it isn't 75% and of course it was then that the damage was done to the industry and the worry caused to the customers.

    Now of course the industry has adapted re the booking, knowing that a cancellation may occur so is much more flexible re payment so the protection is probably even less valuable than pre Covid days.

    Of course it is better that they have done this now than not at all, but boy has the horse bolted big time.

    Want to hazard a guess at the actual percentage? I can't think of anyone now who books a holiday isn't fully aware of the risk they are taking and are weighing it accordingly. I am planning one for Sept, but it will be a low risk, book late job.
This discussion has been closed.