politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spotting the Difference – what really matters to Johnson when
Comments
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The whole "Biden is a vegtable" is crap. Check out the man's record over his entire political career - and not just the gaffes, but the achievements.rcs1000 said:
Unfortunately Nick Clegg is barred due to not being a US citizen.LadyG said:
Am I alone in finding the inevitable election of doddery Joe Biden quite infinitely depressing? And only outweighed by the even-worse alternative?rottenborough said:
What a time for the USA, the leader of the Free World, to come up with this terrible choice of feckwits.
The West needs a vigorous, liberal leader. A hero. Someone willing to stand up to China and Russia, Instead, we have two old men who can barely speak coherently, who are differentiated only by one being, amazingly, even worse than the other.
Also note that, if elected, Biden will be the new President BEST qualified to actually work with Congress and get things done.
Carter, Bush 1, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama, Trump: none had a full term as US Senator or equivalent in US House, and two ever served in Congress at all. A HUGE handicap which Uncle Joe will not have. PLUS he's done more good for the US in one month in his time, than Trumpsky would even consider attempting in 100 terms.
Tired of having PBers kick my dog around!1 -
Same here. We were WFH from the early days in March.TheScreamingEagles said:
The firm I work made work for home provisions about 10-14 days before the 16th, so the question is why my firm and so many other firms were making WFH pretty much mandatory before the government did?TheWhiteRabbit said:The timeline is pretty straightforward:
Monday 16/03/2020 "Everyone should avoid gatherings with friends and family, as well as large gatherings and crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres... work from home if you can" -BJ
Tuesday 17/03/2020 "We hope to keep deaths below 20,000" - Vallance; "although the measures already announced are extreme, we may need to go further and faster" (BJ) - London empties of commuters (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51929558)
Wednesday 18/03/2020 - Gov't announces all schools to close
Friday 20/03/2020 - Gov't announces restaurants, pubs and gyms to close
Monday 23/03/2020 - "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction - you must stay at home."
That was the week that was.
We area dealing with fine margins. Unfortunately for all concerned fine margins may have cost lives. But there is a lot of hindsight going on here.0 -
Covid-19 appears to cause clotting pretty much anywhere in the body. The heart attack could well be a consequence of the Covid-19 infection.dixiedean said:
Friend of mine's father, this very year, had successful chemotherapy treatment, went into remission, then caught Covid. Recovered after 3 weeks in hospital, was discharged, and died 3 days later of a heart attack! Quite a 2020.tlg86 said:
I doubt it's that many people...rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
He really ought not to be a CV 19 death. Though it couldn't have helped.0 -
Where does this leave Desmond Swayne then?LadyG said:
London Anecdata:tlg86 said:Dad just back from the pub. It was absolutely dead; only a couple of people in there.
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.0 -
We are used to the odder fringes of the And Unionist Party supporting Direct Rule over the Jock colony, but it is pretty much unheard of in Labour circles. You really are a cracker Justin.justin124 said:
Any attempt at UDI would probably result in a significant proportion of the Scottish electorate refusing to accept the authority of the Holyrood executive whilst continuing to show loyalty to Westminster. Chaos might well ensue producing conditions where it became reasonable for the UK Government to follow the example of the Heath Government in Spring 1972 when Direct Rule was imposed on Stormont.Charles said:FPT
Philosophically that’s an interesting question (I don’t have a view one way or the other).RochdalePioneers said:
Yes it can. How would rUK stop it? They won't just declare UDI. There will be an election. Then a referendum. Then a result. If the Scottish government is elected on a platform of Indyref2 and then Indyref2 votes for Independence what specifically can rUK do to stop it?RobD said:Scotland also cannot declare independence without the permission of the UK. The position is the same.
There are two Acts of Union - English and Scottish. The Scottish one was passed in the Scottish Parliament. It absolutely can be dissolved in the Scottish Parliament. Are you suggesting the British Army should be deployed to arrest the SNP leadership to prevent that from happening?
AIUI the Scottish Parliament decided to dissolve itself and merge with the Westminster Parliament with Scotland sending representatives to sit in the U.K. Parliament
Some years later, the U.K. parliament votes to create a devolved Parliament at Holyrood which has certain prescribed powers with other powers reserved to Westminster.
It does not follow that Holyrood is a recreation of the original Scottish Parliament, but it’s instead a devolved body from Westminster. Hence I don’t think that it can “just dissolve the Union”.
That’s not to saw that Scotland can’t go down UDI route if it wants to, but I don’t think it can claim to be acting within the law if it does0 -
It isnt. The ONS figures only record cases where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. That is why the ONS figures are lower.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.0 -
I see that cases are rising in our patch. Not heard anything about Bradford Council tightening restrictions yet.
Not that it would have much of an impact on me, mind.0 -
Cases rising in 41 States.
Meanwhile Trump rambling about water pressure in showers.0 -
As Robert says, it's all about excess deaths.dixiedean said:
Friend of mine's father, this very year, had successful chemotherapy treatment, went into remission, then caught Covid. Recovered after 3 weeks in hospital, was discharged, and died 3 days later of a heart attack! Quite a 2020.tlg86 said:
I doubt it's that many people...rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
He really ought not to be a CV 19 death. Though it couldn't have helped.0 -
So duplicitous shits are OK provided they are in government?Charles said:
You mistake explanation and defenceNigelb said:
Understood. You don’t like, but will defend, the duplicitous snakes in charge.Charles said:
Nope. There are few politicians I like, and certainly not the current bunch of reprobates.Nigelb said:
Unless they’re in charge ?Charles said:
I don’t like duplicitous snakes. Simple as that.Nigelb said:
I think Charles is overexerting himself in defence of hierarchy.Stuartinromford said:
Though any politician- let alone the current tenant of No 10- ought to be very careful before making misleading without actually lying a hanging offence.Charles said:
Lewis has denied it, saying he never made a commitment to support Grayling. Note that isn’t quite what he has been accused ofrcs1000 said:The government claimed that Julian Lewis lied to the Chief Whip.
If that is not true, and he was expelled merely for the defying the government with regards to a non-governmental (and in theory independent) role, then that is an extraordinary step - a degree of control-freakery that Blair and Mandelson at their peak did not aspire to.
My guess is he misled the chief whip without *quite* lying to his face
One can stretch a guiding principle too far....
The government shouldn’t have tried to intervene in the election.
Lewis behaved like a duplicitous little shit. I understand why they sacked him in the interest of party discipline.1 -
Scots constitutional law is founded on the principal of popular sovereignty. Parliamentary sovereignty is an English concept.Charles said:
But was that authorised by statute or not?Carnyx said:
The very first business in 1997 was to declare the Holyrood Parliament the continuation of that suspended in 1707. As Winnie Ewing formally declared, ‘The Scottish Parliament, which adjourned on March 25 1707, is hereby reconvened.’Charles said:FPT
Philosophically that’s an interesting question (I don’t have a view one way or the other).RochdalePioneers said:
Yes it can. How would rUK stop it? They won't just declare UDI. There will be an election. Then a referendum. Then a result. If the Scottish government is elected on a platform of Indyref2 and then Indyref2 votes for Independence what specifically can rUK do to stop it?RobD said:Scotland also cannot declare independence without the permission of the UK. The position is the same.
There are two Acts of Union - English and Scottish. The Scottish one was passed in the Scottish Parliament. It absolutely can be dissolved in the Scottish Parliament. Are you suggesting the British Army should be deployed to arrest the SNP leadership to prevent that from happening?
AIUI the Scottish Parliament decided to dissolve itself and merge with the Westminster Parliament with Scotland sending representatives to sit in the U.K. Parliament
Some years later, the U.K. parliament votes to create a devolved Parliament at Holyrood which has certain prescribed powers with other powers reserved to Westminster.
It does not follow that Holyrood is a recreation of the original Scottish Parliament, but it’s instead a devolved body from Westminster. Hence I don’t think that it can “just dissolve the Union”.
That’s not to saw that Scotland can’t go down UDI route if it wants to, but I don’t think it can claim to be acting within the law if it does0 -
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.0 -
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302421 -
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
He really is an odious individual. His rants make one want to retch. (treat yourself to his GE rant)williamglenn said:
Such an unhelpful comment. It's like someone being sacked by Neil Kinnock and saying they will loyally defend Michael Foot's manifesto.dr_spyn said:Is Labour's swamp being drained? https://twitter.com/lloyd_rm/status/1283823256944992257
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The most remarkable thing about the "White Power" video that Trump shared was that it was happening inside The Villages.rcs1000 said:
Yes. If Trumpski loses, it will be because he failed the oldies re CV-19.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Miami & South Florida current epicenter of Covid in USA.rcs1000 said:
If Biden does win Florida, then it's very hard to see how Trump remains President. That being said... let's not forget than in 2018, Florida returned a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator. The state shows no signs of being (even semi-reliably) Blue.stodge said:
I'm no fan of Trump but assuming the result of an election in November from polls in July seems to be foolish.Anabobazina said:I’m a Trump opponent who cannot see past a Trump victory.
But...
Trump hasn’t led an FL poll since 12 March.
That’s quite something.
What are the views of the PB Trumptons? @MrEd @HYUFD @Luckyguy1983 @Ave_it
?
Back in 1988 Dukakis led George W Bush at this time but was comfortably beaten 54-46 on polling day.
In 2016 the polls were more volatile and indeed let's not forget Clinton won the popular vote 48-46 but the votes weren't where she needed them.
The other concern (and this is why I try to check the crosstabs) is the polls are oversampling pro-Democratic groups and undersampling pro-Republican groups. Now, I suspect after what happened last time the polling organisations have tightened their sampling and methodology but there's a worry "shy Trump" votes aren't showing up and the headlines are artificially strong for Biden.
We've also got the issue of vote distribution - if all Biden is doing is piling up votes in the North East and West Trump still has a chance - that's why I look at the Midwest and South numbers on the national polls and of course State polls may be more informative.
There are really only ten states at most which matter - Biden won't win Oklahoma and Trump won't win Delaware. The "swing" states have big EC numbers especially Florida but also Pennsylvania. Just by gaining those Biden converts a 306-232 electoral college deficit to a 281-257 lead. In short, Trump needs to hold almost everything he won last time while Biden will win comfortably with three or four of the right pick ups.
Add Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and Biden wins 318-220.
Also, note the electoral power of Sunshine State's disproportionate number of geezers - a group that was one of Trumpsky's best in 2016, but which is heavily impacted by the Crud, and which polling shows is becoming seriously disaffected from our Fearless Leader.
They should be a uniform bastion of Trumpism.0 -
Well, well.
https://twitter.com/RangersFC/status/1283841387662921728?s=20
Some of the support not entirely supportive.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1283837949302517761?s=201 -
Made losses on travel insurance I expect though.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
Sunday at the Inn at Whitewall, absolutely choc-a-bloc. Clitheroe on Monday like a ghost town. Market day in Clitheroe on Tuesday, streets busy, market busy but shops empty.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Motorway home on Tuesday busy from Lancashire to the Severn Bridge. Wales quiet. Motorway to Worcester, for work today, very busy. People are out and about but economic activity very patchy.0 -
And these dorks are in charge of Johnson’s weapons of mass destruction:
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/ferry-heading-scotland-near-miss-22363303.amp0 -
Ah the Denmark Arms. Used to drink there when I lived in Manor Park.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Happy Spoons free days!0 -
But it is not true for the ONS death statistics which use what the death certificate says.LadyG said:
I've looked at it. And it SEEMS to be true. Caveat Emptorrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
But if is true, we may have unjustifiably scared ourselves into a Great Depression
So you can relax.0 -
Indeed.rcs1000 said:
On the other hand, US hospitals aren't doing profitable elective surgeries and are haemorrhaging cash.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/1283801640881930242
The system isn’t really designed to deal with public health emergencies.0 -
Its a bit hard to judge here, what with the confusing lockdown. I saw a pub open in Oadby, within the lockdown area but only a few customers.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.0 -
Queues at banks and building societies? Sounds worrying. That’s a classic sign of panic. If it’s withdrawals they’re doing?stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.0 -
Ours has given us a refund.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
Am I a terrible human being that I laughed at the 'pier (sic) pressure' comment?Theuniondivvie said:Well, well.
https://twitter.com/RangersFC/status/1283841387662921728?s=20
Some of the support not entirely supportive.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1283837949302517761?s=201 -
Surely the only worthy metric for Covid mortality is extrapolation from excess death figures, and even then caveats are very much required.Alistair said:
But it is not true for the ONS death statistics which use what the death certificate says.LadyG said:
I've looked at it. And it SEEMS to be true. Caveat Emptorrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
But if is true, we may have unjustifiably scared ourselves into a Great Depression
So you can relax.0 -
Desmond Swine?rottenborough said:
Where does this leave Desmond Swayne then?LadyG said:
London Anecdata:tlg86 said:Dad just back from the pub. It was absolutely dead; only a couple of people in there.
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.0 -
Nice for you. Mine hasn't.Alistair said:
Ours has given us a refund.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
You've been had, we got 75 quid.Benpointer said:
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
The Denmark Arms went downhill after the Hammers moved to Stratford. It had been one of the pubs for those walking from Barking to Upton Park and back after the match.dixiedean said:
Ah the Denmark Arms. Used to drink there when I lived in Manor Park.
Happy Spoons free days!
It closed and was empty for a couple of years and was taken over by Antic late in 2018 and re-furbished. Mrs Stodge and I went for Sunday lunch a couple of times and very good it was too but it's completely closed and has been since mid March.
According to the website, it wasn't in the first tranche of Antic pubs to re-open so it may be a while...
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Ah yes, those lovely Rangers Unionists. Cuddly bunch.Theuniondivvie said:Well, well.
https://twitter.com/RangersFC/status/1283841387662921728?s=20
Some of the support not entirely supportive.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1283837949302517761?s=200 -
Rather depends on how much you paid in the first place I guess?Alistair said:
You've been had, we got 75 quid.Benpointer said:
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/1283801640881930242-1 -
I haven't been on a Tube since February 28th! And a train or bus of any description since March 12th! But I did manage to do Aberdeen to Inverness on March 6th, thankfully.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:tlg86 said:Dad just back from the pub. It was absolutely dead; only a couple of people in there.
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
#withdrawal0 -
Mine hasnt , but then I guess since i am only paying £200 a yr fully comp or thereabouts, it a bit churlish to ask for a refund.Benpointer said:
Rather depends on how much you paid in the first place I guess?Alistair said:
You've been had, we got 75 quid.Benpointer said:
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
LNER are doing some rail themed facemasks, to help with your withdrawal.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I haven't been on a Tube since February 28th! And a train or bus of any description since March 12th! But I did manage to do Aberdeen to Inverness on March 6th, thankfully.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:tlg86 said:Dad just back from the pub. It was absolutely dead; only a couple of people in there.
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
#withdrawal
https://www.personalisedfacemask.com/product-category/lner/1 -
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.1 -
I paid 200 last year and 185 at renewal. No refunds.Benpointer said:
Rather depends on how much you paid in the first place I guess?Alistair said:
You've been had, we got 75 quid.Benpointer said:
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
Am heading out to grocery store shortly, expect there will be plenty of people there 99% masked. On street about 50%; typically I have mine on if there are other people nearby, otherwise pull it down & breath easy.dixiedean said:
Ah the Denmark Arms. Used to drink there when I lived in Manor Park.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Happy Spoons free days!
Last Tuesday took bus to downtown Seattle, beyond & back. Downtown was semi-ghost town, rest of city subdued but more traffic & activity than a month or so ago.
Big local news today: due to rising number of Covid infections in King County, local school districts will NOT be teaching kids in schools, even on part-time basis.0 -
-
Mmm. Used to do decent beer, and a refreshing lack of London ponce in the early 90's. Important for a Northerner.stodge said:
The Denmark Arms went downhill after the Hammers moved to Stratford. It had been one of the pubs for those walking from Barking to Upton Park and back after the match.dixiedean said:
Ah the Denmark Arms. Used to drink there when I lived in Manor Park.
Happy Spoons free days!
It closed and was empty for a couple of years and was taken over by Antic late in 2018 and re-furbished. Mrs Stodge and I went for Sunday lunch a couple of times and very good it was too but it's completely closed and has been since mid March.
According to the website, it wasn't in the first tranche of Antic pubs to re-open so it may be a while...
Also used to do lunchtime second hand music sales. Bought plenty of records.
Was always dark...0 -
Reminds me that I once failed miserably with a Trivial Pursuit (remember that?) question that I heard as "Which famous pier disappeared in 1974?"TheScreamingEagles said:
Am I a terrible human being that I laughed at the 'pier (sic) pressure' comment?Theuniondivvie said:Well, well.
https://twitter.com/RangersFC/status/1283841387662921728?s=20
Some of the support not entirely supportive.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1283837949302517761?s=20
After much struggling over various possibilities I settled on 'Morecambe West End'
4 -
Yes, they were still doing sales of the vinyl until just before the owners called it a day.dixiedean said:
Mmm. Used to do decent beer, and a refreshing lack of London ponce in the early 90's. Important for a Northerner.
Also used to do lunchtime second hand music sales. Bought plenty of records.
0 -
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)0 -
Fantastic to see Lloyd R-M leaving the SC.0
-
Boris lost me at Jenrick.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
A slimy good for nothing with his nose in the trough, shades of a less funny Alan B'stard.
As housing minister he's been rubbish on leasehold reform and the cladding scandal and the fact he is a landlord to boot makes me think he's not fit for purpose.
I'm a lifelong Conservative voter. But I can already feel it will be hard for me to put my X in the box for them next time round.
I don't fear Starmer the way I feared Corbyn and we're moving to a tax and spend social democracy as a result of Covid anyway. So why bother?
Boris' failure to sack Jenrick looks like weakness to me. He should be ruthless to people who underperform in their roles. I can only assume Boris doesn't think he's underperforming. In which case he has lost my vote.4 -
I had planned to do the Clitheroe to Hellifield (Sunday-only) train for some time this year, but that was before Covid.Mexicanpete said:
Sunday at the Inn at Whitewall, absolutely choc-a-bloc. Clitheroe on Monday like a ghost town. Market day in Clitheroe on Tuesday, streets busy, market busy but shops empty.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Motorway home on Tuesday busy from Lancashire to the Severn Bridge. Wales quiet. Motorway to Worcester, for work today, very busy. People are out and about but economic activity very patchy.0 -
He was never in the Shadow Cabinet!CorrectHorseBattery said:Fantastic to see Lloyd R-M leaving the SC.
0 -
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.4 -
On what basis was Blair terrible? It was a period where the country was happier, more together and noticeable achievements in developing sustained peace in NI and big improvements in healthcare and education. People have short memories.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)2 -
There are quite a few Excursion Trains go that way too. You could do it behind a kettle.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I had planned to do the Clitheroe to Hellifield (Sunday-only) train for some time this year, but that was before Covid.Mexicanpete said:
Sunday at the Inn at Whitewall, absolutely choc-a-bloc. Clitheroe on Monday like a ghost town. Market day in Clitheroe on Tuesday, streets busy, market busy but shops empty.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Motorway home on Tuesday busy from Lancashire to the Severn Bridge. Wales quiet. Motorway to Worcester, for work today, very busy. People are out and about but economic activity very patchy.0 -
Some autumn of your life inspiration for Dura Ace.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1283868658570338304?s=202 -
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.0 -
Very quiet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays by the look of it. It was raining that awful North West drizel, which would have kept me under cover.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I had planned to do the Clitheroe to Hellifield (Sunday-only) train for some time this year, but that was before Covid.Mexicanpete said:
Sunday at the Inn at Whitewall, absolutely choc-a-bloc. Clitheroe on Monday like a ghost town. Market day in Clitheroe on Tuesday, streets busy, market busy but shops empty.stodge said:
Different London Anecdata - Barking Road and East Ham High Street, Thursday lunchtime.LadyG said:
London Anecdata:
went on the Tube today. Busiest I have seen it since early lockdown. However it was only like a quiet Sunday, so progress is slow. But better than nothing.
An observation: mask usage is now about 95%. It is near universal, and failure to wear a mask gets frowns and scoldings. Also: the people most willing to go without a mask are attractive young women.
True story.
My guess is that this is Darwinian. Attractive young women don't want to give up their mating advantages - look at me, I'm pretty - so they are still determined to look cute and earn admirers.
Wetherspoons open but almost deserted, Denmark Arms closed.
Argos has re-opened and a small queue but main queues continue to be at banks and building societies. Earlier queues at Primark and shoe shops now gone - the odd shop (beauty salon) still closed. Also a queue at McDonald's but quieter than normal.
People out and about but not going into shops - mask wearing 10% tops. Saw a few buses in the Barking Road - mask wearing 75% on board. Interesting to note most passengers take off mask as soon as off the bus.
MY view is retail got a small boost with re-opening at the beginning of the month but that has faded.
Motorway home on Tuesday busy from Lancashire to the Severn Bridge. Wales quiet. Motorway to Worcester, for work today, very busy. People are out and about but economic activity very patchy.0 -
Infinity preferable to this useless shower.Philip_Thompson said:
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.1 -
If the Chief Whip is not alert to such nuances he's not up to the job.Charles said:
My guess is he misled the chief whip without *quite* lying to his facercs1000 said:The government claimed that Julian Lewis lied to the Chief Whip.
If that is not true, and he was expelled merely for the defying the government with regards to a non-governmental (and in theory independent) role, then that is an extraordinary step - a degree of control-freakery that Blair and Mandelson at their peak did not aspire to.2 -
The decade of austerity only prolonged the effects of the global financial crisis.Philip_Thompson said:
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.
As we now see, there was always another way.1 -
Dear me. I nowhere talk about his demise only about his fall from power. And he has not been ill for the greater part of his premiership either - unless there is something we have not been told.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
I have grave concerns about the default instincts of this government and indeed the previous one. They are not, in their essence, very different. I have spelt these out in a number of headers over the last few years. But a good summary of my concerns is in these two - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/03/11/political-rights-and-wrongs/ and https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/03/12/amber-warnings-what-might-be-the-signals-that-all-is-not-well-in-a-democracy/.
I did not vote for Blair in 1997 and was never caught up in any sort of love for him. Indeed, I find adulation of politicians - including the adulation heaped on Obama - a bit creepy and sinister. It is a sign of something potentially unhealthy in a democracy. A bit of basic competence and integrity is all I hope for.
Johnson may learn and change. I am doubtful. If he has not learnt to be honest or the value of integrity by the time he is in his mid-50’s why would he start now.
And remember I lived in London under his mayoralties. He was better than Livingstone. But he did not achieve much either and wasted a great deal of money to boot. He has a very long record on which he can be judged - as MP, as Mayor, as Foreign Secretary and now a year as Prime Minister. And the choices he has made about his Cabinet Ministers do tell us something very important about him. A PM who sacks an effective Minister like Smith but keeps people like Patel or Williamson or Jenrick is someone who has shown that competence and integrity do not matter to him.
If he changes for the better I will be pleased. How likely do you think it is that he will change?8 -
I don't agree with the main thrust of your argument anyway, but please ponder your last two statements. You might find it somewhat ironic today.Philip_Thompson said:
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.0 -
I was going to stay away from here for a while (it's frankly no good for my blood pressure) but I was so astonished by the level of incompetence suggested by that PHE story that I decided to see if anyone might have anything more to add on the matter.Foxy said:
It isnt. The ONS figures only record cases where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. That is why the ONS figures are lower.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
Your remark doesn't directly address the veracity of the PHE figures but talks up that of the ONS figures, which suggests in turn that the accusation levelled at PHE (by a very reputable source) is not contested, at least not by your good self. I am unsurprised. The PHE numbers have been wildly out of whack with the NHS England hospital death stats for some time (implying that an improbably high proportion of Covid deaths were taking place in non-hospital settings,) and I'd previously thought this was something to do with PHE being very poor at keeping their figures up-to-date and reporting a lot of historical cases dating back months to the peak period. It now appears that this is not quite the truth, that many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious, and that PHE's statistics may therefore be thrown in the dustbin.
Right, next question: out of all the deaths attributed to Covid on death certificates (the ONS reporting criterion,) how many of those patients died of Covid (cause unambiguous and disease confirmed by lab test,) with Covid (virus confirmed by lab test, doctor's best guess that it might be a cause of death,) or with suspected Covid (doctor's best guess and virus not confirmed by lab test either?) Do we trust that 100% of those people who have died with Covid listed as a cause of death actually died as a result of Covid, or is it really a smaller number - like 80%, or perhaps only 50%?
After all, the medical profession were telling us that the dreaded masks were worse than useless outside of clinical settings only a few months ago, yet look where we are now. If they've been guessing about something as basic as that, then how often have they also been guessing in cases where little old ladies have died peacefully at home, and tearful relatives have mentioned in passing to the GP or ambulance crew that Mum had a cough for a couple of days before she joined the choir celestial?
Incidents like the mask fiasco (the volte face over which looks suspiciously like either incompetence, or the product of deliberate lying over fears of a run on PPE supplies earlier in the year,) and apparently fictitious statistics issued by important state quangos, does not paint the high command of this society in a particularly flattering light. It's not just Government ministers: our Rolls Royce civil service appears to resemble more closely a rusty Trabant.
I would say that the public inquiry can't come soon enough, but for the fact that it will probably take so long that almost everybody responsible for cocking this whole situation up will be demented or dead by the time it reports back.1 -
OK- at what point does it become reasonable to say that the Johnson approach to government isn't acceptable? Not necessarily whether he is an effective Prime Minister who is improving the country he leads, but is the way that he treats people a reasonable way for a leading citizen to behave?squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
To be clear, I'm not asking for a government of Franciscan friars. But everyone who has done real politics knows that there are lines that you don't cross. Roughly, the difference between trying to tell the truth and going out of your way to tell the whole truth. And most politicians and parties self-police their position on the right side of the line.
The Johnson-Cummings-Gove worldview is much more that the line is for wusses, and if there's no external enforcement mechanism, there's no rule. The moment I went from disappointed to furious about Johnson PM was after the prorogation judgement by the Supreme Court. That was a massive, scandalous failure of political judgement. It should have been career ending for whoever tried it on. And nothing happened.
So- if it's currently too early to judge Johnson's personal suitability to be Prime Minister, when are we allowed to judge him?3 -
Did you live through the New Labour Years? Save for the disgraceful fiasco that was Iraq, the country was far more tolerant and content with it's place in the world than it is now.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
For Blair's manifold faults we did not have a Prime Minister who made us look like an international joke.
1 -
This is the worst government the country has ever had and I say that as someone who voted Tory in 2019.Mexicanpete said:
Did you live through the New Labour Years? Save for the disgraceful fiasco that was Iraq, the country was far more tolerant and content with it's place in the world than it is now.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
For Blair's manifold faults we did not have a Prime Minister who made us look like an international joke.1 -
Sorry catching up on the threads after watching cooking shows on cable and drinking lovely oaked Chilean Chardonnay.
There appears to be an accusation from Professor Carl Heneghan (Oxon) that anyone who has ever had COVID then subsequently died is counted as a COVID death, regardless of whether or not COVID was responsible for their death.
Is this actually the case?0 -
What's the connection between the right-wing media and the Labour Party? Doesn't make sense.dr_spyn said:Is Labour's swamp being drained? https://twitter.com/lloyd_rm/status/1283823256944992257
0 -
That's the trouble with packing your cabinet with pliable minions. They might turn out not to be very good at their jobs.CarlottaVance said:
If the Chief Whip is not alert to such nuances he's not up to the job.Charles said:
My guess is he misled the chief whip without *quite* lying to his facercs1000 said:The government claimed that Julian Lewis lied to the Chief Whip.
If that is not true, and he was expelled merely for the defying the government with regards to a non-governmental (and in theory independent) role, then that is an extraordinary step - a degree of control-freakery that Blair and Mandelson at their peak did not aspire to.0 -
The accusation (which is levelled specifically against the daily death stats issued by Public Health England) takes the form of a relatively brief post published today on the CEBM website, but the explanation offered looks convincing enough. We shall see if an equally convincing rebuttal is forthcoming, but in the absence of one I tend towards believing the professor. After all, the state (and PHE is a quango, of course,) hasn't exactly covered itself in glory over all of this.Anabobazina said:Sorry catching up on the threads after watching cooking shows on cable and drinking lovely oaked Chilean Chardonnay.
There appears to be an accusation from Professor Carl Heneghan (Oxon) that anyone who has ever had COVID then subsequently died is counted as a COVID death, regardless of whether or not COVID was responsible for their death.
Is this actually the case?1 -
Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.0 -
To be fair to Blair he spent less in his first term as a percentage of gdp than any PM since 1964 bar Thatcher in her final term, even if Brown pushed higher spending later on. The top rate of income tax under Blair was also lower than under Cameron or May and was also lower than it is now under Boris.Philip_Thompson said:
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.
In economic terms Blair was arguably the most rightwing PM we have had since WW2 after Thatcher, even if he was socially liberal and he was also a relative foreign policy hawk too1 -
I think you expect far too much unanimity of my profession. Throughout this condition there have been medical advocates of masks, and sceptics. The difference is who has the ear of the politicians, and the effect of peer pressure.Black_Rook said:
I was going to stay away from here for a while (it's frankly no good for my blood pressure) but I was so astonished by the level of incompetence suggested by that PHE story that I decided to see if anyone might have anything more to add on the matter.Foxy said:
It isnt. The ONS figures only record cases where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. That is why the ONS figures are lower.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
Your remark doesn't directly address the veracity of the PHE figures but talks up that of the ONS figures, which suggests in turn that the accusation levelled at PHE (by a very reputable source) is not contested, at least not by your good self. I am unsurprised. The PHE numbers have been wildly out of whack with the NHS England hospital death stats for some time (implying that an improbably high proportion of Covid deaths were taking place in non-hospital settings,) and I'd previously thought this was something to do with PHE being very poor at keeping their figures up-to-date and reporting a lot of historical cases dating back months to the peak period. It now appears that this is not quite the truth, that many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious, and that PHE's statistics may therefore be thrown in the dustbin.
Right, next question: out of all the deaths attributed to Covid on death certificates (the ONS reporting criterion,) how many of those patients died of Covid (cause unambiguous and disease confirmed by lab test,) with Covid (virus confirmed by lab test, doctor's best guess that it might be a cause of death,) or with suspected Covid (doctor's best guess and virus not confirmed by lab test either?) Do we trust that 100% of those people who have died with Covid listed as a cause of death actually died as a result of Covid, or is it really a smaller number - like 80%, or perhaps only 50%?
After all, the medical profession were telling us that the dreaded masks were worse than useless outside of clinical settings only a few months ago, yet look where we are now. If they've been guessing about something as basic as that, then how often have they also been guessing in cases where little old ladies have died peacefully at home, and tearful relatives have mentioned in passing to the GP or ambulance crew that Mum had a cough for a couple of days before she joined the choir celestial?
Incidents like the mask fiasco (the volte face over which looks suspiciously like either incompetence, or the product of deliberate lying over fears of a run on PPE supplies earlier in the year,) and apparently fictitious statistics issued by important state quangos, does not paint the high command of this society in a particularly flattering light. It's not just Government ministers: our Rolls Royce civil service appears to resemble more closely a rusty Trabant.
I would say that the public inquiry can't come soon enough, but for the fact that it will probably take so long that almost everybody responsible for cocking this whole situation up will be demented or dead by the time it reports back.
Similarly different doctors will vary in how they write death certificates. Some will omit Covid 19 unless a test has been done, others will list it as a contributory factor if there is clinical disease that makes for probable disease in the absence of testing. Each country has its own idiosyncrasies too.
This is why "excess deaths" is probably the most accurate figure for comparison, but the other figures remain useful for discerning trends.
Medicine is not engineering, it involves both the ghost and the machine, and also the ghost and machine of the doctor. Acting on probability, balance of evidence and risks can never be as precise as you wish, nor as unanimous.1 -
Well, his plane may not have worked great but I bet it was delivered as on time and on budget as a British defence contractor at least.Theuniondivvie said:Some autumn of your life inspiration for Dura Ace.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1283868658570338304?s=200 -
The disastrous handling of the pandemic by Trump and De Santis is killing the GOP in Florida right now but it could look very different by November.rcs1000 said:
If Biden does win Florida, then it's very hard to see how Trump remains President. That being said... let's not forget than in 2018, Florida returned a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator. The state shows no signs of being (even semi-reliably) Blue.stodge said:
I'm no fan of Trump but assuming the result of an election in November from polls in July seems to be foolish.Anabobazina said:I’m a Trump opponent who cannot see past a Trump victory.
But...
Trump hasn’t led an FL poll since 12 March.
That’s quite something.
What are the views of the PB Trumptons? @MrEd @HYUFD @Luckyguy1983 @Ave_it
?
Back in 1988 Dukakis led George W Bush at this time but was comfortably beaten 54-46 on polling day.
In 2016 the polls were more volatile and indeed let's not forget Clinton won the popular vote 48-46 but the votes weren't where she needed them.
The other concern (and this is why I try to check the crosstabs) is the polls are oversampling pro-Democratic groups and undersampling pro-Republican groups. Now, I suspect after what happened last time the polling organisations have tightened their sampling and methodology but there's a worry "shy Trump" votes aren't showing up and the headlines are artificially strong for Biden.
We've also got the issue of vote distribution - if all Biden is doing is piling up votes in the North East and West Trump still has a chance - that's why I look at the Midwest and South numbers on the national polls and of course State polls may be more informative.
There are really only ten states at most which matter - Biden won't win Oklahoma and Trump won't win Delaware. The "swing" states have big EC numbers especially Florida but also Pennsylvania. Just by gaining those Biden converts a 306-232 electoral college deficit to a 281-257 lead. In short, Trump needs to hold almost everything he won last time while Biden will win comfortably with three or four of the right pick ups.
Add Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and Biden wins 318-220.0 -
Peter Hitchens may have been right all along.LadyG said:
I've looked at it. And it SEEMS to be true. Caveat Emptorrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
But if is true, we may have unjustifiably scared ourselves into a Great Depression0 -
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.0 -
No, as someone else upthread said.. excess deaths is the stat worth looking at.Andy_JS said:
Peter Hitchens may have been right all along.LadyG said:
I've looked at it. And it SEEMS to be true. Caveat Emptorrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
But if is true, we may have unjustifiably scared ourselves into a Great Depression0 -
In the US, you wouldn't get minimum liability (i.e. $30k of third party exposure only) for less than about $500/year.squareroot2 said:
Mine hasnt , but then I guess since i am only paying £200 a yr fully comp or thereabouts, it a bit churlish to ask for a refund.Benpointer said:
Rather depends on how much you paid in the first place I guess?Alistair said:
You've been had, we got 75 quid.Benpointer said:
Indeed. We got an unsolicited rebate from our car insurers some friends have too. Nice of them to do that but I suspect if they rebate each policyholder £50 they have been saving a lot more than that.Philip_Thompson said:
Most other insurance companies too probably. I can imagine that car insurance companies have made a fortune this year since nobody is driving anywhere.Foxy said:
I suspect BUPA, AVIVA, etc are trousering the cash here too. There has been effectively no private medicine in Q2 this year.Nigelb said:It’s not big pharma that’s growing rich on the back of the pandemic...
https://twitter.com/fmanjoo/status/12838016408819302420 -
For your information I have not been in the Labour Party since 1996 - nor did I vote for it in 2019.Anabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.0 -
Well, yes.kyf_100 said:
Boris lost me at Jenrick.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
A slimy good for nothing with his nose in the trough, shades of a less funny Alan B'stard.
As housing minister he's been rubbish on leasehold reform and the cladding scandal and the fact he is a landlord to boot makes me think he's not fit for purpose.
I'm a lifelong Conservative voter. But I can already feel it will be hard for me to put my X in the box for them next time round.
I don't fear Starmer the way I feared Corbyn and we're moving to a tax and spend social democracy as a result of Covid anyway. So why bother?
Boris' failure to sack Jenrick looks like weakness to me. He should be ruthless to people who underperform in their roles. I can only assume Boris doesn't think he's underperforming. In which case he has lost my vote.
Those that are (personally) loyal to Boris stay, whatever their other failures.
While those who snub him in some way, whatever their other abilities, are sidelined or expelled from the party.
It's ruthless. But I'm not sure it's good for parliamentary democracy.1 -
A global pandemic? You think we should have had one earlier to cull the weak and the old?Benpointer said:
The decade of austerity only prolonged the effects of the global financial crisis.Philip_Thompson said:
What calm and prosperity under Blair?Benpointer said:
Good grief! Compare for a moment the relative calm and prosperity of Blair's years as PM with the shambolic disaster and decline of the past 5 years of unfettered Conservative rule (I struggle to call it 'government').squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
Blair would be a 100 times better leading the country in this current crisis than the buffoon who is currently in No 10.
Blair's government was overspending from 2002 onwards leading to the biggest structural deficit this country had ever faced postwar which it took a decade of austerity to fix.
As we now see, there was always another way.
Well, it's a view.1 -
I can easily believe that that is the case, but I don't know how much difference it is making. At the beginning it would have made no difference but the difference will grow as time goes on.Black_Rook said:
The accusation (which is levelled specifically against the daily death stats issued by Public Health England) takes the form of a relatively brief post published today on the CEBM website, but the explanation offered looks convincing enough. We shall see if an equally convincing rebuttal is forthcoming, but in the absence of one I tend towards believing the professor. After all, the state (and PHE is a quango, of course,) hasn't exactly covered itself in glory over all of this.Anabobazina said:Sorry catching up on the threads after watching cooking shows on cable and drinking lovely oaked Chilean Chardonnay.
There appears to be an accusation from Professor Carl Heneghan (Oxon) that anyone who has ever had COVID then subsequently died is counted as a COVID death, regardless of whether or not COVID was responsible for their death.
Is this actually the case?
The CEBM article implies there have been 300,000 people with positive tests so far. That means, that if someone got knocked down by a bus, there's about a 1 in 200 chance they've tested positive for corona virus. And that's assuming that those events are independent - I imagine that those who have tested positive skew older and are less likely to be running around in front of buses. Unfortunately, I have no idea how many 'accidental' (i.e. not health or age related) deaths there are normally in the UK, and hence how much 1/200th of that is adding to the death toll.
The CEBM article also refers to old people who've had corona virus, recovered, and then died. But what are the chances someone who catches corona virus and is in good enough health to recover from it but bad enough health to die within a few months? Not being a medical person, I've no idea, but again, the sniff test to me says not many. But it will only grow more likely, as the time between recovery and death will increase, and so the anomaly does need to be sorted before it leads to bigger skewing of the data.0 -
Er, no. That’s your rather blunt definition.HYUFD said:
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.
By that token you are also leftwing given that you support a very interventionist government.
A leftwing hardcore Remainer! HYUFD.0 -
I am left-wing and I don't believe the State should control most of the economy. Indeed I generally think the ability of any government, of any stripe, to direct the economy is vastly over stated.HYUFD said:
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.
I don't hold authoritarian social values either.
1 -
It really isn't. And I'm not a particular fan.houndtang said:
This is the worst government the country has ever had and I say that as someone who voted Tory in 2019.Mexicanpete said:
Did you live through the New Labour Years? Save for the disgraceful fiasco that was Iraq, the country was far more tolerant and content with it's place in the world than it is now.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
For Blair's manifold faults we did not have a Prime Minister who made us look like an international joke.0 -
People defend with the most fiery passion their left wingedness or right wingedness, yet others purportedly of the same tribe disagree with their definition of what it even means. That's not a broad tribe, it's people not really being ideological at all, they've just chosen a tribe to follow and tried to give it more intellectual heft than it deserves.0
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Ever is a very long time. Worst post war government perhaps?rcs1000 said:
It really isn't. And I'm not a particular fan.houndtang said:
This is the worst government the country has ever had and I say that as someone who voted Tory in 2019.Mexicanpete said:
Did you live through the New Labour Years? Save for the disgraceful fiasco that was Iraq, the country was far more tolerant and content with it's place in the world than it is now.squareroot2 said:
but the point I am making was that Blair proved to be terrible, but i doubt for a second you would have written such a thread about Blair 7 months into his leadership. You would have most likely been swept up in the love in like so many others were.Cyclefree said:
I have set out the facts leading to my conclusion. If you have other facts to put forward, feel free.squareroot2 said:A lovely unbiased thread on Boris by Cyclefree. Not unsurprising , but at least we know where Cyclefree is coming from, if of course there was any doubt.
I don't like Boris myself, but we are less than a year(in fact only 7 months into his Premiership). I think he needs time, after all he has still not recovered from Covid19.
One can Imagine Cyclefree lauding Blair in a thread such as this in Dec 1997.. 7 months into his Premiership, only to find out later he was absolutely appalling as PM(given that he was effective, if appalling).
Boris has been PM for a year. Regardless of the size of his majority, there are continuities in the way that he behaves and in his contempt for Parliament and democratic norms, even if it upsets his fans on here that these are pointed out.
I always thought Blair was a narcissistic weasel, though an effective operator.
Boris has only been PM unfettered for 7 months or so, for the greater part he has been ill. I don't like Boris, but its far too early to make a call on his Premiership. I think you are far too judgemental at such an early stage. You may end up totally correct, but its too early to start frothing about how much you will enjoy his demise.. in fact its very unhealthy, the sort of thing the hard left regularly speak about including wishing him dead (cf Miriam Margoyles)
For Blair's manifold faults we did not have a Prime Minister who made us look like an international joke.0 -
"many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious"Black_Rook said:
I was going to stay away from here for a while (it's frankly no good for my blood pressure) but I was so astonished by the level of incompetence suggested by that PHE story that I decided to see if anyone might have anything more to add on the matter.Foxy said:
It isnt. The ONS figures only record cases where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. That is why the ONS figures are lower.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
Your remark doesn't directly address the veracity of the PHE figures but talks up that of the ONS figures, which suggests in turn that the accusation levelled at PHE (by a very reputable source) is not contested, at least not by your good self. I am unsurprised. The PHE numbers have been wildly out of whack with the NHS England hospital death stats for some time (implying that an improbably high proportion of Covid deaths were taking place in non-hospital settings,) and I'd previously thought this was something to do with PHE being very poor at keeping their figures up-to-date and reporting a lot of historical cases dating back months to the peak period. It now appears that this is not quite the truth, that many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious, and that PHE's statistics may therefore be thrown in the dustbin.
Right, next question: out of all the deaths attributed to Covid on death certificates (the ONS reporting criterion,) how many of those patients died of Covid (cause unambiguous and disease confirmed by lab test,) with Covid (virus confirmed by lab test, doctor's best guess that it might be a cause of death,) or with suspected Covid (doctor's best guess and virus not confirmed by lab test either?) Do we trust that 100% of those people who have died with Covid listed as a cause of death actually died as a result of Covid, or is it really a smaller number - like 80%, or perhaps only 50%?
After all, the medical profession were telling us that the dreaded masks were worse than useless outside of clinical settings only a few months ago, yet look where we are now. If they've been guessing about something as basic as that, then how often have they also been guessing in cases where little old ladies have died peacefully at home, and tearful relatives have mentioned in passing to the GP or ambulance crew that Mum had a cough for a couple of days before she joined the choir celestial?
Incidents like the mask fiasco (the volte face over which looks suspiciously like either incompetence, or the product of deliberate lying over fears of a run on PPE supplies earlier in the year,) and apparently fictitious statistics issued by important state quangos, does not paint the high command of this society in a particularly flattering light. It's not just Government ministers: our Rolls Royce civil service appears to resemble more closely a rusty Trabant.
I would say that the public inquiry can't come soon enough, but for the fact that it will probably take so long that almost everybody responsible for cocking this whole situation up will be demented or dead by the time it reports back.
If so, why was total mortality in the UK over the crisis 77% more than normal?0 -
And 77% more even though everyone was stuck inside not getting in car accidents or contracting other illnesses. The idea that most Covid deaths are fictitious is for the birds.rcs1000 said:
"many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious"Black_Rook said:
I was going to stay away from here for a while (it's frankly no good for my blood pressure) but I was so astonished by the level of incompetence suggested by that PHE story that I decided to see if anyone might have anything more to add on the matter.Foxy said:
It isnt. The ONS figures only record cases where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. That is why the ONS figures are lower.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1283864624341942273
Tell me this isn't true.
Your remark doesn't directly address the veracity of the PHE figures but talks up that of the ONS figures, which suggests in turn that the accusation levelled at PHE (by a very reputable source) is not contested, at least not by your good self. I am unsurprised. The PHE numbers have been wildly out of whack with the NHS England hospital death stats for some time (implying that an improbably high proportion of Covid deaths were taking place in non-hospital settings,) and I'd previously thought this was something to do with PHE being very poor at keeping their figures up-to-date and reporting a lot of historical cases dating back months to the peak period. It now appears that this is not quite the truth, that many and perhaps most of the Covid deaths that they are reporting are essentially fictitious, and that PHE's statistics may therefore be thrown in the dustbin.
Right, next question: out of all the deaths attributed to Covid on death certificates (the ONS reporting criterion,) how many of those patients died of Covid (cause unambiguous and disease confirmed by lab test,) with Covid (virus confirmed by lab test, doctor's best guess that it might be a cause of death,) or with suspected Covid (doctor's best guess and virus not confirmed by lab test either?) Do we trust that 100% of those people who have died with Covid listed as a cause of death actually died as a result of Covid, or is it really a smaller number - like 80%, or perhaps only 50%?
After all, the medical profession were telling us that the dreaded masks were worse than useless outside of clinical settings only a few months ago, yet look where we are now. If they've been guessing about something as basic as that, then how often have they also been guessing in cases where little old ladies have died peacefully at home, and tearful relatives have mentioned in passing to the GP or ambulance crew that Mum had a cough for a couple of days before she joined the choir celestial?
Incidents like the mask fiasco (the volte face over which looks suspiciously like either incompetence, or the product of deliberate lying over fears of a run on PPE supplies earlier in the year,) and apparently fictitious statistics issued by important state quangos, does not paint the high command of this society in a particularly flattering light. It's not just Government ministers: our Rolls Royce civil service appears to resemble more closely a rusty Trabant.
I would say that the public inquiry can't come soon enough, but for the fact that it will probably take so long that almost everybody responsible for cocking this whole situation up will be demented or dead by the time it reports back.
If so, why was total mortality in the UK over the crisis 77% more than normal?0 -
No, I am conservative but I do not pretend to be a liberal eitherAnabobazina said:
Er, no. That’s your rather blunt definition.HYUFD said:
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.
By that token you are also leftwing given that you support a very interventionist government.
A leftwing hardcore Remainer! HYUFD.0 -
Finally saw Neowise with a break in the northern cloud.0
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Why do you consider yourself left-wing?dixiedean said:
I am left-wing and I don't believe the State should control most of the economy. Indeed I generally think the ability of any government, of any stripe, to direct the economy is vastly over stated.HYUFD said:
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.
I don't hold authoritarian social values either.1 -
If you do not believe the state should control most of the economy then you are by definition not leftwing, you might be centrist but you are not leftwing.dixiedean said:
I am left-wing and I don't believe the State should control most of the economy. Indeed I generally think the ability of any government, of any stripe, to direct the economy is vastly over stated.HYUFD said:
If you are leftwing that means you believe the state should control most of the economy, there is no contradiction between that and also believing in authoritarian social values tooAnabobazina said:Stuart
Yes, he is. A very odd arch unionist, social conservative who thinks sex before marriage is a sin. Not entirely sure what he’s doing in the Labour Party but, as I said earlier, self-proclaimed ‘leftwingers’ who are in fact highly authoritarian are over-represented on PB. They are not actually leftwing in my view, but self-identify as such. Funny old world.
I don't hold authoritarian social values either.
You sound far more of a centrist liberal than leftwing0 -
The original tweet from Carl Heneghan, a professor at Oxford University, and editor-in-chief of "BJM - Evidence Based Medicine":
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/12838271269622046720 -
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I think the labels confuse more than they help. Personally I'm in favour of much higher income tax on higher tax bands plus a wealth tax plus high spending on health, social care and education and a minimal military budget and no royal family. But I'm not in favour of government control of most of industry and I'm thoroughly relaxed about social issues, if people pay their taxes I don't care about their luxuries, and I don't want to tell anyone how to live their lives. On youtr definition I'm a centrist, but that doesn't feel very centrist to me? Is it a useful label?HYUFD said:
If you do not believe the state should control most of the economy then you are by definition not leftwing, you might be centrist but you are not leftwing.dixiedean said:
I am left-wing and I don't believe the State should control most of the economy. Indeed I generally think the ability of any government, of any stripe, to direct the economy is vastly over stated.
I don't hold authoritarian social values either.
You sound far more of a centrist liberal than leftwing0 -
Me too. Too much urban rubbish (and cloud) in the way for me to see it earlier in the month when it was brighter - at least without driving around at 2am. It is high enough in the sky now to be seen quite easily.Pulpstar said:Finally saw Neowise with a break in the northern cloud.
Quite an impressive sight in binoculars.0 -
Better for Trump than yours truly would have expected in Bluegrass State.HYUFD said:
In US Senate race, 7% for Libertarian mostly at McConnell's expense; note there is (apparently) also 7% undecided. These later partly IMHO from supporters of McGrath's Democratic opponent who can be expected to come home by November, but most are likely true undecideds.
Conclusion: McGrath is in striking distance BUT clearly has a long way to go to upset McConnell. SO it's the Battle o' the Clans - break out yez claymores!1 -
So no action on climate change?NickPalmer said:
I think the labels confuse more than they help. Personally I'm in favour of much higher income tax on higher tax bands plus a wealth tax plus high spending on health, social care and education and a minimal military budget and no royal family. But I'm not in favour of government control of most of industry and I'm thoroughly relaxed about social issues, if people pay their taxes I don't care about their luxuries, and I don't want to tell anyone how to live their lives. On youtr definition I'm a centrist, but that doesn't feel very centrist to me? Is it a useful label?HYUFD said:
If you do not believe the state should control most of the economy then you are by definition not leftwing, you might be centrist but you are not leftwing.dixiedean said:
I am left-wing and I don't believe the State should control most of the economy. Indeed I generally think the ability of any government, of any stripe, to direct the economy is vastly over stated.
I don't hold authoritarian social values either.
You sound far more of a centrist liberal than leftwing0
