politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Sure she will be crying at that G

She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist

One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!

Like Brexit any indy ref will be on a for or against debate across parties.

However, for the SNP the only supporters they may have are the greens and plaid

And currently *checks note* 54% of likely voters.

Good to see some honesty about the press, state broadcaster and British establishment being well and truly anti-indy.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Not a hope

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Not a hope

May be not in "Scouse" North East Wales, but it will change down here.

fox327 said:

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.

I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Not a hope

He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Consider every angle

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1281639847099334659?s=19

Shy Trump voters?

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Labour have a long way to go.

https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/1281285770192531456

Ah, the working class business owner.

Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?

Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.

What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.

You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.

But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?

Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.

But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?

I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).

How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.

It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.

Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.

Grr.

So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.

Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?

I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.

Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough

Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.

Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will

I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.

Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate

You're thinking I mean totalitarian communism (!) when all I really have in mind is high tax & spend, public ownership of utilities, an egalitarian education policy, and an abdication of exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire. Result - a peaceful prosperous country with a happy and civilised ambience.

Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.

"exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire" died with our grandparents' generation. The home of British exceptionalism is now the left with its ludicrous celebration of the fact that we uniquely have !!!Ther NHS!!!!, whereas Johnny Foreigner has to get by with just having, you know, doctors and nurses and hospitals and a well thought out insurance based system to make sure they are universally affordable.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

MrEd said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

ps apologies for a link to Watson......

Who is the guy? What's the context?

Does it need a context.

It is just foul and unacceptable

Floater said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Consider every angle

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1281639847099334659?s=19

Shy Trump voters?

Would you admit it?????

Andy_JS said:

It's interesting that Tories are becoming slightly more left-wing on economic issues. Higher taxes on the wealthiest aren't as unpopular as they used to be.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1281594433948057600?s=20

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.

kinabalu said:

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Labour have a long way to go.

https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/1281285770192531456

Ah, the working class business owner.

Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?

Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.

What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.

You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.

But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?

Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.

But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?

I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).

How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.

It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.

Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.

Grr.

So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.

Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?

I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.

Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough

Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.

Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will

I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.

Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate

You're thinking I mean totalitarian communism (!) when all I really have in mind is high tax & spend, public ownership of utilities, an egalitarian education policy, and an abdication of exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire. Result - a peaceful prosperous country with a happy and civilised ambience.

Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.

"exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire" died with our grandparents' generation. The home of British exceptionalism is now the left with its ludicrous celebration of the fact that we uniquely have !!!Ther NHS!!!!, whereas Johnny Foreigner has to get by with just having, you know, doctors and nurses and hospitals and a well thought out insurance based system to make sure they are universally affordable.

"Born of empire" was a bit blithe and sweeping. The truth is I don't know exactly where our exceptionalism comes from but I see it all around and I think it's a net negative. It was a factor in the Brexit vote for example. How come our sovereignty is more precious - or fragile? - than others?

As to moving to a German style health system, well I'm no expert but aping the Germans is always worth looking at. But they do spend more on health remember.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1281594433948057600?s=20

Lockdown ended two months ago.

So we can go to the theatre? To the gym? Last month we could go to the pub?

Lockdown has been partially lifted but we're still under lockdown. Just a lighter lockdown than it was.

MaxPB said:

I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Sure she will be crying at that G

She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist

One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Sure she will be crying at that G

She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist

One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!

Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....

Black_Rook said:

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.

I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Sure she will be crying at that G

She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist

One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!

Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....

Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Sure she will be crying at that G

She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist

One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!

Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....

Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.

MaxPB said:

I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

fox327 said:

stodge said:

fox327 said:

I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

I am assuming that if there are huge job losses and this leads to large scale unemployment for an extended period, that many people will end up in difficulty meeting their financial commitments. Some of them would then be willing to consider taking a job in an office. In fact they might not have a choice if benefit regulations mean that declining a job that has been offered to them could lead to them losing benefits. Will there be a lot of job losses? We will have to wait and see, but I have seen a lot of very quiet places in tourist areas and in my nearest city centre. This does not bode well for the short to medium term jobs outlook.

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Not a hope

He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.

There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism

People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.

I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.

Wales will not change its mind.

It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.

Not a hope

He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.

There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism

People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.

Andy_JS said:

ydoethur said:

Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

I got addicted to cricket in the 1990s thanks to the stylish commentary of people like Richie Benaud, Sunil Gavaskar and Jack Bannister. Today's highlights are useless compared to then.

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.

Black_Rook said:

Labour were right to bail the banks in 2008 - the alternative was to risk a panic run on the entire banking system - and the Conservatives are right to prop up businesses at the moment. They can't keep doing it forever, but if they can nurse the country through the worst of lockdown and the subsequent social distancing palaver then they can keep several million people paying taxes and limit the numbers trying to scrape by on universal credit whilst facing repossession or eviction notices. That's good for the workers who are saved from the scrapheap and it makes the burden of destitution that the country is going to have to bear that much lighter.

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

Except UKIP and the populists.

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.

I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

MrEd said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

ps apologies for a link to Watson......

Who is the guy? What's the context?

Does it need a context.

It is just foul and unacceptable

So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?

Was he but no, still no excuse.

Two wrongs do not make a right

I'm asking if it would make a difference.

If it would it shows you were wrong to say the context doesn't matter.

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

MaxPB said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.

I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.

Less groupthink could be a big bonus

Surely you get more groupthink when all of the thinking is done during scheduled meetings rather than off the cuff coffees and chats.

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Guardian: The government is considering making masks mandatory in shops, Boris Johnson has hinted, as senior scientists urged ministers to be seen in face coverings more often to set a good example.

And Breaking: Ghislaine Maxwell should be released on bail while awaiting trial for her alleged involvement in Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking ring because of “the Covid-19 crisis and its impact on detained defendants”, the British socialite’s lawyers argued in Manhattan federal court papers filed on Friday.

Sensible decision to make face masks mandatory in shops as well as public transport as is now the case in Scotland to reduce the chance of a second peak

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

MrEd said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

ps apologies for a link to Watson......

Who is the guy? What's the context?

Does it need a context.

It is just foul and unacceptable

So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?

Do you think someone provoking you with thoughts you don't like gives you a right for you to assault them?

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.

No of course we are saving the Union, any indyref2 would see a chance of a Yes vote, 45% of Scots voted Yes in 2014 even before Brexit for goodness sake, so banning indyref2 for a generation is the best way to secure the Union until a next generation of Scots can decide if they want to renew it.

Ed Miliband and Corbyn both went populist demanding more spending when Cameron and May were pursuing austerity so Labour deserves a taste of its own medicine if the Tories push keeping taxes low when Starmer is putting together a programme for raising taxes

MaxPB said:

I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?

Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?

Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.

Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather than it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.