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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393

    malcolmg said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Sure she will be crying at that G
    She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

    Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Like Brexit any indy ref will be on a for or against debate across parties.

    However, for the SNP the only supporters they may have are the greens and plaid
    And currently *checks note* 54% of likely voters.

    Good to see some honesty about the press, state broadcaster and British establishment being well and truly anti-indy.
    And it is Scotland's best interests to stay in the union, as will be demonstrated in any indy campaign
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
  • Options
    fox327fox327 Posts: 366
    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    May be not in "Scouse" North East Wales, but it will change down here.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    May be not in "Scouse" North East Wales, but it will change down here.
    Not in North Wales and why the scouse

    It is just not going to happen
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    fox327 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).
    Yes - in my industry I can't see things going back to the way they were.

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    fox327 said:


    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

    How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

    The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    Scottish secession leaves Northern Ireland geographically isolated and very vulnerable to a combination of nationalist agitation and the likely lack of determination (to put it mildly) in London to keep hold of the province once the UK is dissolved.

    The likelihood of the British state being pared down to England and Wales within 5-10 years is quite strong.
    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK, only 29% want a United Ireland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    My employer has publicly committed that no one needs to be office based this year if they don't feel cmfortable.

    Currently only some of our offices are open and none above about 10% capacity

    I have team members who want to just pop in to office to pick up some paper work and they have been denied permission.

    My employer also feels that commuting on public transport not advisable at this time - so any one of those 10% either drive, walk or cycle.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Would you admit it?????
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,011
    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, the working class business owner.
    Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?
    Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.
    What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.
    You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
    I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
    Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.
    But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?
    Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

    Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.
    But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

    In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

    On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?
    I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).
    How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.
    It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

    But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.
    Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

    The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.
    Grr.

    So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

    As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

    If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.
    Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?
    I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.
    Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough
    Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.
    Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

    You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will
    I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.
    Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate
    You're thinking I mean totalitarian communism (!) when all I really have in mind is high tax & spend, public ownership of utilities, an egalitarian education policy, and an abdication of exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire. Result - a peaceful prosperous country with a happy and civilised ambience.

    Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.
    "exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire" died with our grandparents' generation. The home of British exceptionalism is now the left with its ludicrous celebration of the fact that we uniquely have !!!Ther NHS!!!!, whereas Johnny Foreigner has to get by with just having, you know, doctors and nurses and hospitals and a well thought out insurance based system to make sure they are universally affordable.
    "Born of empire" was a bit blithe and sweeping. The truth is I don't know exactly where our exceptionalism comes from but I see it all around and I think it's a net negative. It was a factor in the Brexit vote for example. How come our sovereignty is more precious - or fragile? - than others?

    As to moving to a German style health system, well I'm no expert but aping the Germans is always worth looking at. But they do spend more on health remember.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    What's wrong with jingoism?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,011
    It's interesting that Tories are becoming slightly more left-wing on economic issues. Higher taxes on the wealthiest aren't as unpopular as they used to be.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    Floater said:

    Would you admit it?????
    Sounds like she is more worried that, like last time, the data isn't picking up those who don't want to be polled, or have an infrequent voting record or who say they really aren't sure they will bother this time.

    They then turned out in 2016 and went Trump.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, the working class business owner.
    Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?
    Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.
    What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.
    You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
    I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
    Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.
    But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?
    Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

    Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.
    But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

    In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

    On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?
    I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).
    How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.
    It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

    But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.
    Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

    The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.
    Grr.

    So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

    As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

    If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.
    Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?
    I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.
    Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough
    Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.
    Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

    You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will
    I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.
    Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate
    You're thinking I mean totalitarian communism (!) when all I really have in mind is high tax & spend, public ownership of utilities, an egalitarian education policy, and an abdication of exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire. Result - a peaceful prosperous country with a happy and civilised ambience.

    Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.
    Yes and your high tax and spend is going to push a lot of the just managing under water. Nationalised industries were crap before why do you think they would be better now. Some of the highest hikes in utility prices happened while they were nationalised BT was a total disgrace, BR had falling passenger numbers because they were such dross even compared against the current franchise. Why is it going to be any different if you renationalise them? Do you want to have to wait 3 months to get a phone line put in and then only be able to use equipment that has to be rented from BT?

    Nationalised utilites were a steaming pile of horse manure back then and they would be again.
    You're as stuck in the 70s as Jeremy Corbyn!

    But look - that is not your vision. That's still you bridling at MY one.
    Because that is how things were in the 70's. You have provided 0% evidence as to why it would be different now apart from you hope it will be and I gave you my vision at 6:41
    It took me time to type up so made it a separate reply
    Seen it now. Very interesting and radical and quite a bit more than I bargained for.

    My 1st question. How do you prevent people being elected at the same time with contradictory plans?
    Thats why each executive role would be clearly defined. IE education would cover curriculum, school infrastructure, what happens on school premises.

    There would still be a cabinet, where there are clashes they can either be hashed out in the cabinet and agreed or deferred to the sortition congress
    Ok. I don't know if you can chop things up like this though.

    For example - How could I nationalize the banks under this regime?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Andy_JS said:

    It's interesting that Tories are becoming slightly more left-wing on economic issues. Higher taxes on the wealthiest aren't as unpopular as they used to be.

    They are with wealthy voters who still tend to be Tory voters, hence Boris will borrow rather than put up their taxes, only Starmer would do that
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Was he but no, still no excuse.

    Two wrongs do not make a right
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    Floater said:


    My employer has publicly committed that no one needs to be office based this year if they don't feel comfortable.

    Currently only some of our offices are open and none above about 10% capacity

    I have team members who want to just pop in to office to pick up some paper work and they have been denied permission.

    My employer also feels that commuting on public transport not advisable at this time - so any one of those 10% either drive, walk or cycle.

    I'm hearing that a lot. 25-30% capacity is the maximum in my experience and that isn't helped by lifts.

    The bigger question is why is Boris so keen to return to the pre-virus status quo. I can understand wanting him to wish away some of his Government's blunderings but the world has changed and a sensible and pragmatic Government would seek to recognise and support these changes which have valuable impacts on the environment and can re-vitalise local shops and businesses as well as the thriving Home Delivery business.



  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341
    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Do you think someone provoking you with thoughts you don't like gives you a right for you to assault them?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    So we can go to the theatre? To the gym? Last month we could go to the pub?

    Lockdown has been partially lifted but we're still under lockdown. Just a lighter lockdown than it was.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, the working class business owner.
    Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?
    Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.
    What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.
    You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
    I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
    Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.
    But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?
    Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

    Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.
    But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

    In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

    On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?
    I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).
    How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.
    It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

    But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.
    Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

    The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.
    Grr.

    So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

    As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

    If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.
    Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?
    I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.
    Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough
    Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.
    Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

    You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will
    I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.
    Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate
    You're thinking I mean totalitarian communism (!) when all I really have in mind is high tax & spend, public ownership of utilities, an egalitarian education policy, and an abdication of exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire. Result - a peaceful prosperous country with a happy and civilised ambience.

    Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.
    "exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire" died with our grandparents' generation. The home of British exceptionalism is now the left with its ludicrous celebration of the fact that we uniquely have !!!Ther NHS!!!!, whereas Johnny Foreigner has to get by with just having, you know, doctors and nurses and hospitals and a well thought out insurance based system to make sure they are universally affordable.
    "Born of empire" was a bit blithe and sweeping. The truth is I don't know exactly where our exceptionalism comes from but I see it all around and I think it's a net negative. It was a factor in the Brexit vote for example. How come our sovereignty is more precious - or fragile? - than others?

    As to moving to a German style health system, well I'm no expert but aping the Germans is always worth looking at. But they do spend more on health remember.
    But don't live longer.

    Health care spending suffers from the same law of diminishing returns as everything else.

    And more spending on public health would almost certainly bring a better return than the same increase on hospital spending.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    So we can go to the theatre? To the gym? Last month we could go to the pub?

    Lockdown has been partially lifted but we're still under lockdown. Just a lighter lockdown than it was.
    We're not locked down but parts of the economy and society are still shut down.

    That poll was asking about food shopping habits - something which is not restricted.
  • Options
    fox327fox327 Posts: 366
    stodge said:

    fox327 said:


    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

    How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

    The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

    I am assuming that if there are huge job losses and this leads to large scale unemployment for an extended period, that many people will end up in difficulty meeting their financial commitments. Some of them would then be willing to consider taking a job in an office. In fact they might not have a choice if benefit regulations mean that declining a job that has been offered to them could lead to them losing benefits. Will there be a lot of job losses? We will have to wait and see, but I have seen a lot of very quiet places in tourist areas and in my nearest city centre. This does not bode well for the short to medium term jobs outlook.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    Likewise, although my commute is much shorter than most.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895


    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.

    To be honest, my friend, what they should do is nothing. Capitalism is a brutal business and sometimes perfectly run businesses fail along with badly run businesses. I think it's wrong to prop up zombie businesses with public money - Labour did it with the banks in 2008 and the Conservatives are doing it now - what's the difference?

    As for city centre businesses, IF we see commercial property re-configured to residential use, it will provide a lifeline for some businesses. I don't want to see City and Town Centres die but the market will provide opportunties for other businesses to take over and a city or town can't be just about its shops, pubs, clubs, restaurants and how many drunks go to A&E on a Saturday night.

    Smaller towns and villages could well see a renaissance as the attraction to do more locally will be stronger. I'd love to be owning a small cafe in a commuter town now - the prospects are wonderful.

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943

    malcolmg said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Sure she will be crying at that G
    She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

    Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Sure she will be crying at that G
    She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

    Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,584

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.
    But, if you profess Re-engineering The Country So We Can Thrive By Being More Productive, then encouraging some working from home is a no-brainer. Even if your commute is 30 minutes each way (and I bet most are more than that) then boom! That's around 10 percent. Plus the reduced costs of office space. And a load of other stuff I haven't thought of.

    You want to reinvigorate neglected towns? Decouple jobs from location, at least some of the time. Keep the big cities as places people go once a week for a team meet-up.

    It's not for everyone, and reimagining cities and all the businesses that support them needs thinking. But working out how to facilitate and benefit from WFH is the sort of thing an intelligent governmen... oh, I see the problem.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Sure she will be crying at that G
    She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

    Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
    Oh, the numbers, but when the SG acts on the nuimbers, there is this enormnous howling and whining obsession from the PBTories that they should dare to disagree with Mr Johnson (e.g. on Spain).
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943
    edited July 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    They still say that about Scotland (and about NI). Just see the posts on this website, eg from HYUFD.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Sure she will be crying at that G
    She keeps levering Drakeford into her narrative

    Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
    PS But it has for masks, has it not? Now compulsory for shoips etc in Scotland, with some warning time. Lagging begind in England which has a worse CV problem at present.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    To be honest, my friend, what they should do is nothing. Capitalism is a brutal business and sometimes perfectly run businesses fail along with badly run businesses. I think it's wrong to prop up zombie businesses with public money - Labour did it with the banks in 2008 and the Conservatives are doing it now - what's the difference?

    Labour were right to bail the banks in 2008 - the alternative was to risk a panic run on the entire banking system - and the Conservatives are right to prop up businesses at the moment. They can't keep doing it forever, but if they can nurse the country through the worst of lockdown and the subsequent social distancing palaver then they can keep several million people paying taxes and limit the numbers trying to scrape by on universal credit whilst facing repossession or eviction notices. That's good for the workers who are saved from the scrapheap and it makes the burden of destitution that the country is going to have to bear that much lighter.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    To nuance my previous a little, the current thinking in my small firm (40 people) is a monthly get-together of staff. This would be in a conference room at a hotel or in a Regus-type office space which we would rent for the day along with all the tech we need for those who cannot make it.

    What we don't need or want is or are 40 desks on an office floor - we could sublet the space but who would want it?

    The coat of holding unused space against the cost of hiring space 12-15 times a year is an absolute no-brainer.

    You may want to go back to the office but perhaps it won't be viable for your company to operate an office with 30% capacity.

    I commute 4 hours (2 hours each way) - I haven't missed that and as the weather closes in this autumn I suspect many others will re-discover how much they enjoyed WFH.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited July 2020

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    As opposed to the polls that had Labour closing the gap, which were mostly done while the public were locked indoors watching the daily tv show ft Tory politicians being asked why they hadn't stopped tens of thousands dying from the killer lurgi
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,428
    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    Scottish secession leaves Northern Ireland geographically isolated and very vulnerable to a combination of nationalist agitation and the likely lack of determination (to put it mildly) in London to keep hold of the province once the UK is dissolved.

    The likelihood of the British state being pared down to England and Wales within 5-10 years is quite strong.
    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK, only 29% want a United Ireland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    The decline in Unionist representation for NI at Westminster:

    1974 F 91.7% (11/12 MPs)
    1974 O 83.3% (10/12 MPs)
    1979 75.0% (9/12 MPs)
    1983 88.2% (15/17 MPs)
    1987 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1992 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1997 72.2% (13/18 MPs)
    2001 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2005 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2010 50.0% (9/18 MPs)
    2015 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2017 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2019 44.4% (8/18 MPs)

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,584
    fox327 said:

    stodge said:

    fox327 said:


    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

    How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

    The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

    I am assuming that if there are huge job losses and this leads to large scale unemployment for an extended period, that many people will end up in difficulty meeting their financial commitments. Some of them would then be willing to consider taking a job in an office. In fact they might not have a choice if benefit regulations mean that declining a job that has been offered to them could lead to them losing benefits. Will there be a lot of job losses? We will have to wait and see, but I have seen a lot of very quiet places in tourist areas and in my nearest city centre. This does not bode well for the short to medium term jobs outlook.
    Though if you run the sort of businesses that depend on people working in offices, it's now clearer that you have two workable options. You can pay for people to work in an office you pay for, or you can use the magic of the internet to make them work in a home space they pay for.

    There might be reasons why you prefer the first, but the second is almost certainly cheaper for you.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,584
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

    Though given the way the match is going, that might just be the BBC taking their informal duty to boost national morale a bit too seriously.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    More importantly, treasury chequebook backed by credit rating and overdraft facility.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    Scottish secession leaves Northern Ireland geographically isolated and very vulnerable to a combination of nationalist agitation and the likely lack of determination (to put it mildly) in London to keep hold of the province once the UK is dissolved.

    The likelihood of the British state being pared down to England and Wales within 5-10 years is quite strong.
    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK, only 29% want a United Ireland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    The decline in Unionist representation for NI at Westminster:

    1974 F 91.7% (11/12 MPs)
    1974 O 83.3% (10/12 MPs)
    1979 75.0% (9/12 MPs)
    1983 88.2% (15/17 MPs)
    1987 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1992 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1997 72.2% (13/18 MPs)
    2001 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2005 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2010 50.0% (9/18 MPs)
    2015 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2017 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2019 44.4% (8/18 MPs)

    Alliance MPs effectively count as soft Unionists 'Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.'

    So including the Alliance MP in North Down with the 8 DUP MPs you get to 9 Unionist MPs, same as 2010
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,011
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

    I got addicted to cricket in the 1990s thanks to the stylish commentary of people like Richie Benaud, Sunil Gavaskar and Jack Bannister. Today's highlights are useless compared to then.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Not necessarily. Remember all those confident predictions that Brexit would lead many other countries to leave the EU.
    I speak as very much currently pro-Union, and it will change my mind.
    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    No, Westminster remains the supreme Parliament for the whole UK and Scotland and Wales and NI get their own parliaments and assemblies too, the only deficit is in England which needs its own Parliament too in my view
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    The context is 2017.
    The 'contextualisers' are 2020 Tories prolapsing over the imminent collapse of Western civilisation and missing having Jezza to frighten the horses with.
    Seems so long ago 2017. I suppose it caused trauma in places how close he came. Certainly I was surprised by the level of fear and loathing on here in the run up to GE19 despite the big poll leads.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

    I got addicted to cricket in the 1990s thanks to the stylish commentary of people like Richie Benaud, Sunil Gavaskar and Jack Bannister. Today's highlights are useless compared to then.
    Hark back to the silken tones of Jim Laker! Arlot's Hampshire brogue, mainly on the radio was just musical!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895


    Labour were right to bail the banks in 2008 - the alternative was to risk a panic run on the entire banking system - and the Conservatives are right to prop up businesses at the moment. They can't keep doing it forever, but if they can nurse the country through the worst of lockdown and the subsequent social distancing palaver then they can keep several million people paying taxes and limit the numbers trying to scrape by on universal credit whilst facing repossession or eviction notices. That's good for the workers who are saved from the scrapheap and it makes the burden of destitution that the country is going to have to bear that much lighter.

    Quite - Northern Rock showed Brown what a bank run in the 21st Century looks like and that, I suspect, led to the policy no bank could be allowed to fail.

    Allister Heath, with whose politics I am in vehement disagreement but on economics a man who I think talked a lot of sense, said every company should have a plan in place to deal with its own failure - a kind of Will which would determine what should happen in the event of the business becoming insolvent.

    The notion companies cannot be allowed to fail flies in the face of the market and capitalism. Businesses fail all the time. What happens is another opportunity comes along and replaces all or part of the business or someone comes in with a new idea better suited to the new conditions and prospers.

    I've cited Home Delivery services as one sector which has done really well out of lockdown yet it seems, to paraphrase Python, "every cafe is sacred". No, they aren't. Of course a business failure is terrible for the Owner and those involved. I get that - but business entails risk (as does so much else). Not so long ago, many on here were saying we should "open up" because it was worth the risk - maybe but why does the notion of risk with our individual health extend further than the notion of risk to our economic health?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    Except for UKIP and the populists.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    I also think that permanently WFH is bad for the soul, it limits general interaction with colleagues and friends to specific "fun" days which are prearranged. Honestly, I've made friends for life at my workplace, it wouldn't have been possible without the ability to just go to lunch together or go to the pub after work on Thursday and Friday. A bunch of us went on holiday together last year and had a great time, you couldn't do that without the social aspect of working together and generally being around each other all day.

    Again, it might be the industry/level I'm in which is mainly staffed by people in my age bracket with similar interests but I'd definitely miss it if the company decided to ditch the office and just did a WeWork a few times a month. Thankfully I'm not sure it's possible given our new building is just finished.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    That surely has to happen given the current climate.

    Does it mean we have to change the tune to "Good Old Arsenal?"
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    Except UKIP and the populists.
    They won their referendum 41 years after the first, not 6 years after the last one.

    Plus they want to keep the UK together, the clue is in the title
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Was he but no, still no excuse.

    Two wrongs do not make a right
    I'm asking if it would make a difference.

    If it would it shows you were wrong to say the context doesn't matter.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
    Less groupthink could be a big bonus
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Was he but no, still no excuse.

    Two wrongs do not make a right
    I'm asking if it would make a difference.

    If it would it shows you were wrong to say the context doesn't matter.
    Nothing excuses that
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
    Less groupthink could be a big bonus
    Surely you get more groupthink when all of the thinking is done during scheduled meetings rather than off the cuff coffees and chats.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    ...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

    It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
    Less groupthink could be a big bonus
    Surely you get more groupthink when all of the thinking is done during scheduled meetings rather than off the cuff coffees and chats.
    I don't think so. I disagree that all the thinking would be done then, that would be when the talking is done, after people have independently thought about things without tailoring their comments to curry favour with the bosses
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,726
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian: The government is considering making masks mandatory in shops, Boris Johnson has hinted, as senior scientists urged ministers to be seen in face coverings more often to set a good example.

    And Breaking: Ghislaine Maxwell should be released on bail while awaiting trial for her alleged involvement in Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking ring because of “the Covid-19 crisis and its impact on detained defendants”, the British socialite’s lawyers argued in Manhattan federal court papers filed on Friday.

    Sensible decision to make face masks mandatory in shops as well as public transport as is now the case in Scotland to reduce the chance of a second peak
    It would have been sensible four months ago!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341

    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09

    By notionally adding between 20% and 30% extra traffic on already congested roads will be fun!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    ...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

    It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.
    No of course we are saving the Union, any indyref2 would see a chance of a Yes vote, 45% of Scots voted Yes in 2014 even before Brexit for goodness sake, so banning indyref2 for a generation is the best way to secure the Union until a next generation of Scots can decide if they want to renew it.

    Ed Miliband and Corbyn both went populist demanding more spending when Cameron and May were pursuing austerity so Labour deserves a taste of its own medicine if the Tories push keeping taxes low when Starmer is putting together a programme for raising taxes
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,662
    "In the long run we will all be dead." Lord Keynes

    "In the short run go and drop dead." Donald Trump
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
    Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09

    We've known about this for a long, long time. It was always the main argument against rail renationalisation: that, in an age when we are meant to be rebalancing spending away from London and the South-East, it would've resulted in massively subsidised season tickets that would have predominantly benefitted - guess who? - comfortably-off commuters, living in the South East and working in London.

    Of course, with the collapse of mass commuting the argument for state intervention becomes a much easier sell. If we want an extensive rail network at all then it may well have to be propped up by the Treasury, because it won't have enough customers left to finance itself.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    It is only one poll and may be influenced by Rishi but I would just comment that I am not at all sure all the 'woke' goes down well in the red wall seats

    Posted this on the previous thread Big_G but to many red wall voters, this is what the Labour Party is all about these days (and, no, not the guy being shouted at but the shouters)

    https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21

    Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......

    ps apologies for a link to Watson......
    Who is the guy? What's the context?
    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Do you think someone provoking you with thoughts you don't like gives you a right for you to assault them?
    No.

    Now how about answering my question?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,341
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    ...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

    It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.
    No of course we are saving the Union, any indyref2 would see a chance of a Yes vote, 45% of Scots voted Yes in 2014 even before Brexit for goodness sake, so banning indyref2 for a generation is the best way to secure the Union until a next generation of Scots can decide if they want to renew it.

    Ed Miliband and Corbyn both went populist demanding more spending when Cameron and May were pursuing austerity so Labour deserves a taste of its own medicine if the Tories push keeping taxes low when Starmer is putting together a programme for raising taxes
    In the event of another 30 years of Tory governments, because Tory governments are so awesome. Not beyond the realms of possibly! When and how do you propose we pay for our current round of borrowing?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, the working class business owner.
    Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?
    Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.
    What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.
    You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
    I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
    Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.
    But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?
    Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

    Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.
    But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

    In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

    On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?
    I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).
    How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.
    It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

    But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.
    Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

    The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.
    Grr.

    So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

    As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

    If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.
    Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?
    I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.
    Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough
    Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.
    Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

    You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will
    I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.
    Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate
    We can not make people more beautiful by taking away beauty from people that have it. We cannot make people more talented by taking away talent from those who have it. It is also unlikely, on the final scoresheet, that we can really make people richer by seeking to make others poorer.

    To make that sound less like a glib aphorism, here's how I think we can really give people more of the above. Health:
    1. Make our staples better. Imagine if our daily milk and bread - things that virtually everyone eats, were doing our bodies more good. They easily could be, to the benefit of all, with cleverer processing of food.
    2. Stop demonising saturated fat, and put polyunsaturated fats where they belong - in your car.
    3. Incentivise remineralisation of the soil, and rotation farming, like ye olde days, as opposed to nitrogen fertilisers, creating robust, nutrient dense, vegetables, cereals, and cattle. Nothing pricey about this - the nitrogen fertiliser race is actually the expensive bit.

    Beauty: is a symptom of health. Not just good skin, bodies and hair - bone structure and teeth also come from nutrition. It only takes a generation or so for Cindy Crawford's offspring to become people of Walmart, and vice versa.

    Talent: innate intelliegnce is also a symptom of health.

    You get the secrets behind wealth when you subscribe to my reasonably 6 month course. :wink:
    Erm while I am sure that is all very interesting I have to ask what any of it has to do with me asking him to point to a single instance of socialism ever working?

    On top of which I have to say considering you are someone that thinks dripping hydrogen peroxide in their ears is good for colds I will take anything you say about health with a very large pinch of salt if you don't mind
    I was agreeing with you. :lol:

    And don't knock the ear drops till you've tried them.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    MaxPB said:


    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.

    It's about adaptation and evolution and in my view transcends physical proximity. If you all need to brainstorm regularly I understand the limitations of Zoom, Livestorm or even MS Teams but is it so limiting as to make physical proximity the preferred option?

    There are colleagues with whom I'd love to enjoy a coffee and a chat - I have to do that virtually. It's not the same but it's not that different.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    Except UKIP and the populists.
    They won their referendum 41 years after the first, not 6 years after the last one.

    Plus they want to keep the UK together, the clue is in the title
    The 'nation' of the UK, ergo Britnat.
    Just like yersel.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
    Possibly the least surprising revelation ever.

    This paragraph from Richard Morrison sums up the Wokeists' contempt for ordinary people. Not only are they not regular Prom-goers like the great (?) man, they dare to experience feelings of patriotism that are not 'ironic':

    'I look around me - particularly at the people sitting in the posh seats whom I've never seen at any other Proms - and realise that I can detect absolutely no sign of irony as they roar out these crudely jingoistic texts. On the contrary, they seem to mean every single word...'

    Get stuffed, Richard, there's a good fellow.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
    Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

    The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather that it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
    Whiskey?

    Regiments plural?

    No,. it doesn't.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, the working class business owner.
    Absolutely, who does he think he is getting above himself? Where's his cap?
    Doesn't this come down to whether you view class as predominantly a description of economic interest groups or something cultural and performative? If the former, a working class business owner is a contradiction: you cannot be both capital and labour at the same time. If the latter, then a person could define themselves as working class in cultural terms (eg call their evening meal "tea") and be a billionaire capitalist. To my mind the first usage is more useful, because it is tied to something concrete, but then I am an economist. The culture warriors on here might prefer the more performative use of the phrase.
    What we need in this country is far more "working class" business owners, people who are aspirational and hope for better for their children. I find the idea that someone is a traitor to their class because they want to get on or have ambitions deeply offensive and immoral. I therefore prefer the second description but I wonder how useful the economic version of your definition is if membership is that transient. Better to focus on gig workers, the unemployed or specific sectors that tell you more about the issues they are facing.
    You don't need to be a business owner to hope for better for your children. The problems come when business owners treat their employees like they're disposable and prevent them from realising their dreams for their children. Aspiration is not binary.
    I don't think it's at all helpful to view people as traitors to their class simply because they have made some money. But equally one might question whether they are still members of that class in the way that many people understand it.
    Although I have always been middle class I have certainly moved from one end of that wide envelope to the other in material terms over the course of my life, so I am certainly no stranger to, or enemy of, aspiration.
    But your argument wasnt against bad business owners exploiting workers, it was that you cant be a working class business owner. Take a previously working class brickie who decides to employ five of his mates, they all work the same duties and hours but he happens to be the owner of the firm. On his first day of ownership does he automatically change class? Is he supposed to be aware of this?
    Per Pidcock, you leave the working class at the point where you can live off your wealth. So with your example that would not be on the 1st day or anything close to it.

    Usual caveat. Life is not so precise. But it's a helpful thought imo.
    But its nonsense! So on retirement everyone stops being working class?

    In this country its also perfectly possible to live off state benefits without ever doing a days work. Not fun or recommended, but do-able. So at birth we are all excluded from being working class.

    On a personal level I could certainly retire early today and survive, just not at the level I would like to so will probably end up working another 15 years or so. Which level sets my class, my desired income, historic income or average income, or state sustenance?
    I can answer these questions on Laura's behalf. On retirement you carry on being what you were before you retired. Being jobless on benefits does not count as living off your wealth because it is not living comfortably. Which means - let's put this out there - that your capital needs to be sufficient to generate an income of at least the average wage without any labour input from you. If you're in that boat you can only be "cultural" working class - which is the softer, subjective and imo less useful concept (albeit not irrelevant).
    How do I know how long Im going to live? If its 75 Im excluded from working class on your definition, if l lived to 95 I would be eligible. This is silly.
    It's silly if we get too literal about it. My point is mainly that of the 2 extremes - class is all about money or all about attitudes - I prefer the 1st one. I think that's more useful when it comes to the true economic interest of people (whether they see it or not).

    But OK, since I don't like to dodge questions. We don't know how long you're going to live. But remember we've said that when you become a pensioner - at say 65 - you remain in the class you were in on the day before that event. Thus at this point we only need to ascertain if your wealth is sufficient to live comfortably on UNTIL you reach 65. If it is, you can be "Stocky" working class but not "Pidcock" working class.
    Sorry to be a literal pedant and all that but it really is still nonsensical. At 64y 11m everyone is no longer working class, as they only need a months average wages. By the last day they only need one days average wages to prevent them being working class. At retirement date their class is fixed, so you have no working class retirees.

    The group the Labour party has really lost are working class retirees.
    Grr.

    So, if you approach retirement in a position whereby your wealth alone is generating a comfortable income then whatever class status that signifies continues to the grave (barring accidents).

    As for Labour, yes, our biggest problem is not about class it's about age. We are going gangbusters with the under 40s - setting records there - but it's the opposite of that with the over 65s.

    If we could make 'full set of own teeth' a condition of voting we'd be in great shape.
    Strange that, the ones not keen on a true left wing government are the one's who have actually experienced one. The ones most in favour are people who have never experienced one. I wonder if this tells us something?
    I think we're waiting to have a bash at big interventionist state here in the modern era. I'm not counting this effort from Johnson and Sunak - I sense their heart is not in it.
    Thankfully not enough are stupid enough to think a big interventionist state will work currently and I don't think you will ever convince enough
    Well I sense you are wavering so I will try for a bit longer before I down tools completely. And you will be a great prize - you know what they say about the passion of the converted.
    Like most teenagers I was a socialist and a big supporter of labour. Then I grew up and realised it had no answers for the same reason socialism has always failed. It relies on people behaving in the way socialists think they should behave rather than the way in which human beings really behave. It really is that simple.

    You are a prime example of this with your crusade to ban private schools and hand waving away the issues people raise like the very rich will send their kids to school abroad, the moderately rich will merely buy up all the housing in good state cachement areas pushing poor kids out so all they have left is the failing state schools. Oh it won't happen you declaim despite all the evidence showing it absolutely will
    I look at this exactly the opposite way. Human beings left to their own devices will create a society which is grossly unequal. Unequal to a degree that is indecent. As it is now, people with advantages of talent and wealth and looks, and particularly wealth, and of race and gender, will always by and large have better life outcomes than those not so blessed - not every person but on the whole - and so for me a very high priority of government should be to act in a way that goes against the grain of this rather than to simply let it be, or worse accentuate it. And by go against the grain I mean enact policies which lead to more equal opportunities and outcomes. That's MORE equal not equal. Nothing crazy or scary about this.
    Which I would have sympathy with if you could ever point to a single instance of your philosophy ever working in the real world and not causing millions of deaths and the setting up of reeducation camps for those that don't buy into the state line. Something you (I hope jokingly) agreed with in the other thread about maybe needing to get a new electorate
    We can not make people more beautiful by taking away beauty from people that have it. We cannot make people more talented by taking away talent from those who have it. It is also unlikely, on the final scoresheet, that we can really make people richer by seeking to make others poorer.

    To make that sound less like a glib aphorism, here's how I think we can really give people more of the above. Health:
    1. Make our staples better. Imagine if our daily milk and bread - things that virtually everyone eats, were doing our bodies more good. They easily could be, to the benefit of all, with cleverer processing of food.
    2. Stop demonising saturated fat, and put polyunsaturated fats where they belong - in your car.
    3. Incentivise remineralisation of the soil, and rotation farming, like ye olde days, as opposed to nitrogen fertilisers, creating robust, nutrient dense, vegetables, cereals, and cattle. Nothing pricey about this - the nitrogen fertiliser race is actually the expensive bit.

    Beauty: is a symptom of health. Not just good skin, bodies and hair - bone structure and teeth also come from nutrition. It only takes a generation or so for Cindy Crawford's offspring to become people of Walmart, and vice versa.

    Talent: innate intelliegnce is also a symptom of health.

    You get the secrets behind wealth when you subscribe to my reasonably 6 month course. :wink:
    Erm while I am sure that is all very interesting I have to ask what any of it has to do with me asking him to point to a single instance of socialism ever working?

    On top of which I have to say considering you are someone that thinks dripping hydrogen peroxide in their ears is good for colds I will take anything you say about health with a very large pinch of salt if you don't mind
    I was agreeing with you. :lol:

    And don't knock the ear drops till you've tried them.
    You weren't agreeing with him you were disagreeing with a pastiche of me.

    He has published a very radical manifesto indeed at 6.41 which is what you need to be looking at.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

    It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

    That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

    I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.
    And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

    It is not going to be pretty for any government

    It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

    Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
    Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.
    She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned
    Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...
    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
    Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

    The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather than it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.
    You, er, do know what Mr Cameron did the morning after indyref 1?

    In any case, it was the Unionist MPs of Scotland whjich meddled in "our" domestic business (Logivally enough I suppose), rather than the SNP ones, who espoused a self-denying ordinance (except where it affected the Barnett formula or it had a direct knockon effect on Scotland in some other sense).
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    On topic, do YouGov still do the thing where they make allowances for the politically over engaged? Or was that just the MRP polls?
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