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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999

    And currently *checks note* 54% of likely voters.

    Good to see some honesty about the press, state broadcaster and British establishment being well and truly anti-indy.
    And it is Scotland's best interests to stay in the union, as will be demonstrated in any indy campaign
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    Wales will not change its mind.

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999

    It will, and Drakeford will be irrelevant, PC, granted traditionally useless will prosper in the same way the SNP have. Adam Price is a good start, he has adopted a left of centre agenda. They will no longer be seenas they once were as green Tories.
    Not a hope
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 373
    stodge said:

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    Not a hope
    May be not in "Scouse" North East Wales, but it will change down here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999

    May be not in "Scouse" North East Wales, but it will change down here.
    Not in North Wales and why the scouse

    It is just not going to happen
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Not a hope
    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    fox327 said:

    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).
    Yes - in my industry I can't see things going back to the way they were.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430
    fox327 said:


    I suspect that middle class home workers will in many cases be able to choose to continue working from home. However there will soon many more middle class unemployed people. Some of these will be willing to commute to offices after the money runs out (I speak from experience).

    How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

    The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999

    He might be right. Price has already taken the strategies pioneered in Scotland to their logical conclusion by demanding reparations from the British Government (for which, read English taxpayers.)

    The UK is a dead duck. England is massive compared to the other component parts, which as a result contain very large numbers of citizens who feel dominated and resentful. Secessionist politicians understand this and work successfully to cultivate these voters' wish to get out. The only thing that keeps the whole wobbly construct together is money, and there's no particular reason to suppose that this will be the case forever. In Scotland it might no longer be enough today.
    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    Scottish secession leaves Northern Ireland geographically isolated and very vulnerable to a combination of nationalist agitation and the likely lack of determination (to put it mildly) in London to keep hold of the province once the UK is dissolved.

    The likelihood of the British state being pared down to England and Wales within 5-10 years is quite strong.
    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK, only 29% want a United Ireland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.
    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    stodge said:

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    My employer has publicly committed that no one needs to be office based this year if they don't feel cmfortable.

    Currently only some of our offices are open and none above about 10% capacity

    I have team members who want to just pop in to office to pick up some paper work and they have been denied permission.

    My employer also feels that commuting on public transport not advisable at this time - so any one of those 10% either drive, walk or cycle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Would you admit it?????
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    "exceptionalist pretensions born of Empire" died with our grandparents' generation. The home of British exceptionalism is now the left with its ludicrous celebration of the fact that we uniquely have !!!Ther NHS!!!!, whereas Johnny Foreigner has to get by with just having, you know, doctors and nurses and hospitals and a well thought out insurance based system to make sure they are universally affordable.
    "Born of empire" was a bit blithe and sweeping. The truth is I don't know exactly where our exceptionalism comes from but I see it all around and I think it's a net negative. It was a factor in the Brexit vote for example. How come our sovereignty is more precious - or fragile? - than others?

    As to moving to a German style health system, well I'm no expert but aping the Germans is always worth looking at. But they do spend more on health remember.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    What's wrong with jingoism?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    Does it need a context.

    It is just foul and unacceptable
    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    It's interesting that Tories are becoming slightly more left-wing on economic issues. Higher taxes on the wealthiest aren't as unpopular as they used to be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396
    Floater said:

    Would you admit it?????
    Sounds like she is more worried that, like last time, the data isn't picking up those who don't want to be polled, or have an infrequent voting record or who say they really aren't sure they will bother this time.

    They then turned out in 2016 and went Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    Thats why each executive role would be clearly defined. IE education would cover curriculum, school infrastructure, what happens on school premises.

    There would still be a cabinet, where there are clashes they can either be hashed out in the cabinet and agreed or deferred to the sortition congress
    Ok. I don't know if you can chop things up like this though.

    For example - How could I nationalize the banks under this regime?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    Andy_JS said:

    It's interesting that Tories are becoming slightly more left-wing on economic issues. Higher taxes on the wealthiest aren't as unpopular as they used to be.

    They are with wealthy voters who still tend to be Tory voters, hence Boris will borrow rather than put up their taxes, only Starmer would do that
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999
    kinabalu said:

    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Was he but no, still no excuse.

    Two wrongs do not make a right
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430
    Floater said:


    My employer has publicly committed that no one needs to be office based this year if they don't feel comfortable.

    Currently only some of our offices are open and none above about 10% capacity

    I have team members who want to just pop in to office to pick up some paper work and they have been denied permission.

    My employer also feels that commuting on public transport not advisable at this time - so any one of those 10% either drive, walk or cycle.

    I'm hearing that a lot. 25-30% capacity is the maximum in my experience and that isn't helped by lifts.

    The bigger question is why is Boris so keen to return to the pre-virus status quo. I can understand wanting him to wish away some of his Government's blunderings but the world has changed and a sensible and pragmatic Government would seek to recognise and support these changes which have valuable impacts on the environment and can re-vitalise local shops and businesses as well as the thriving Home Delivery business.



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    HYUFD said:

    Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

    https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

    Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power
    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    So if you discovered that the guy was a notorious alt right activist who had been winding up those people for hours in order to provoke what he wanted to film - that would make absolutely no difference to how you viewed the video?
    Do you think someone provoking you with thoughts you don't like gives you a right for you to assault them?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    Yes, home working isn't for everyone but that doesn't mean it has to be for no-one.

    The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.

    MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.
    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    So we can go to the theatre? To the gym? Last month we could go to the pub?

    Lockdown has been partially lifted but we're still under lockdown. Just a lighter lockdown than it was.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,490
    kinabalu said:

    "Born of empire" was a bit blithe and sweeping. The truth is I don't know exactly where our exceptionalism comes from but I see it all around and I think it's a net negative. It was a factor in the Brexit vote for example. How come our sovereignty is more precious - or fragile? - than others?

    As to moving to a German style health system, well I'm no expert but aping the Germans is always worth looking at. But they do spend more on health remember.
    But don't live longer.

    Health care spending suffers from the same law of diminishing returns as everything else.

    And more spending on public health would almost certainly bring a better return than the same increase on hospital spending.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,490

    So we can go to the theatre? To the gym? Last month we could go to the pub?

    Lockdown has been partially lifted but we're still under lockdown. Just a lighter lockdown than it was.
    We're not locked down but parts of the economy and society are still shut down.

    That poll was asking about food shopping habits - something which is not restricted.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 373
    stodge said:

    How do you rationalise this wave of "middle class unemployment" and the notion people will "commute to offices after the money runs out"?

    The people I talk to who are WAH have never been busier - how is this going to change to large scale job losses? I'm genuinely interested to have some notion of your reasoning.

    I am assuming that if there are huge job losses and this leads to large scale unemployment for an extended period, that many people will end up in difficulty meeting their financial commitments. Some of them would then be willing to consider taking a job in an office. In fact they might not have a choice if benefit regulations mean that declining a job that has been offered to them could lead to them losing benefits. Will there be a lot of job losses? We will have to wait and see, but I have seen a lot of very quiet places in tourist areas and in my nearest city centre. This does not bode well for the short to medium term jobs outlook.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    Likewise, although my commute is much shorter than most.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430


    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.

    To be honest, my friend, what they should do is nothing. Capitalism is a brutal business and sometimes perfectly run businesses fail along with badly run businesses. I think it's wrong to prop up zombie businesses with public money - Labour did it with the banks in 2008 and the Conservatives are doing it now - what's the difference?

    As for city centre businesses, IF we see commercial property re-configured to residential use, it will provide a lifeline for some businesses. I don't want to see City and Town Centres die but the market will provide opportunties for other businesses to take over and a city or town can't be just about its shops, pubs, clubs, restaurants and how many drunks go to A&E on a Saturday night.

    Smaller towns and villages could well see a renaissance as the attraction to do more locally will be stronger. I'd love to be owning a small cafe in a commuter town now - the prospects are wonderful.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    One of the most entertaining things in the run up to the 2014 referendum was Tory Yoons lauding folk that they despised at any other time (G.Brown, Galloway, Barrosso etc). Looking forward to the rerun!
    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited July 2020

    If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

    And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.
    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    Carnyx said:

    Have you notivced the usual suspects on PB have been very quiet about the English (sic) government following initiatives of the Scottish Government (Serbia, face masks, etc. etc.). When "Nicola" (their invariable redictionist term for the SG) follows London after a delay, it's SNPBAAAAAd. When Mr Johnson does it, then ....
    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    There is no appetite in Wales for nationalism
    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,278

    I'm not sure that subtle compulsion is going to be enough to reverse this huge societal shift. I somehow doubt that the Government will table legislation to try to prohibit people from working from home, and providing massive subsidies for train season tickets and city centre office renters might not be regarded as a priority for the use of public funds at the moment.

    It makes you wonder what they can do to rescue city centre business districts from being hollowed out, beyond this kind of weak pleading - or whether it's even particularly desirable to try. Unnecessary commuting is a waste of valuable time and money; ditching it ought to improve productivity, with which we are incessantly told this country struggles.
    But, if you profess Re-engineering The Country So We Can Thrive By Being More Productive, then encouraging some working from home is a no-brainer. Even if your commute is 30 minutes each way (and I bet most are more than that) then boom! That's around 10 percent. Plus the reduced costs of office space. And a load of other stuff I haven't thought of.

    You want to reinvigorate neglected towns? Decouple jobs from location, at least some of the time. Keep the big cities as places people go once a week for a team meet-up.

    It's not for everyone, and reimagining cities and all the businesses that support them needs thinking. But working out how to facilitate and benefit from WFH is the sort of thing an intelligent governmen... oh, I see the problem.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    RobD said:

    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
    Oh, the numbers, but when the SG acts on the nuimbers, there is this enormnous howling and whining obsession from the PBTories that they should dare to disagree with Mr Johnson (e.g. on Spain).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited July 2020

    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    They still say that about Scotland (and about NI). Just see the posts on this website, eg from HYUFD.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    RobD said:

    Was it in response to the Scottish government, or the fact the numbers in Serbia got worse? I think it's the latter. As for masks, the advice has not changed.
    PS But it has for masks, has it not? Now compulsory for shoips etc in Scotland, with some warning time. Lagging begind in England which has a worse CV problem at present.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    To be honest, my friend, what they should do is nothing. Capitalism is a brutal business and sometimes perfectly run businesses fail along with badly run businesses. I think it's wrong to prop up zombie businesses with public money - Labour did it with the banks in 2008 and the Conservatives are doing it now - what's the difference?

    Labour were right to bail the banks in 2008 - the alternative was to risk a panic run on the entire banking system - and the Conservatives are right to prop up businesses at the moment. They can't keep doing it forever, but if they can nurse the country through the worst of lockdown and the subsequent social distancing palaver then they can keep several million people paying taxes and limit the numbers trying to scrape by on universal credit whilst facing repossession or eviction notices. That's good for the workers who are saved from the scrapheap and it makes the burden of destitution that the country is going to have to bear that much lighter.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430
    MaxPB said:

    I, for one, can't wait until the office is open again. I know a lot of people in the same boat. I used to do one day WFH anyway, so I'll just stick to that.

    To nuance my previous a little, the current thinking in my small firm (40 people) is a monthly get-together of staff. This would be in a conference room at a hotel or in a Regus-type office space which we would rent for the day along with all the tech we need for those who cannot make it.

    What we don't need or want is or are 40 desks on an office floor - we could sublet the space but who would want it?

    The coat of holding unused space against the cost of hiring space 12-15 times a year is an absolute no-brainer.

    You may want to go back to the office but perhaps it won't be viable for your company to operate an office with 30% capacity.

    I commute 4 hours (2 hours each way) - I haven't missed that and as the weather closes in this autumn I suspect many others will re-discover how much they enjoyed WFH.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    edited July 2020

    Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

    As opposed to the polls that had Labour closing the gap, which were mostly done while the public were locked indoors watching the daily tv show ft Tory politicians being asked why they hadn't stopped tens of thousands dying from the killer lurgi
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,291
    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    HYUFD said:

    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK, only 29% want a United Ireland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    The decline in Unionist representation for NI at Westminster:

    1974 F 91.7% (11/12 MPs)
    1974 O 83.3% (10/12 MPs)
    1979 75.0% (9/12 MPs)
    1983 88.2% (15/17 MPs)
    1987 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1992 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1997 72.2% (13/18 MPs)
    2001 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2005 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2010 50.0% (9/18 MPs)
    2015 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2017 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2019 44.4% (8/18 MPs)

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,278
    fox327 said:

    I am assuming that if there are huge job losses and this leads to large scale unemployment for an extended period, that many people will end up in difficulty meeting their financial commitments. Some of them would then be willing to consider taking a job in an office. In fact they might not have a choice if benefit regulations mean that declining a job that has been offered to them could lead to them losing benefits. Will there be a lot of job losses? We will have to wait and see, but I have seen a lot of very quiet places in tourist areas and in my nearest city centre. This does not bode well for the short to medium term jobs outlook.
    Though if you run the sort of businesses that depend on people working in offices, it's now clearer that you have two workable options. You can pay for people to work in an office you pay for, or you can use the magic of the internet to make them work in a home space they pay for.

    There might be reasons why you prefer the first, but the second is almost certainly cheaper for you.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,278
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

    Though given the way the match is going, that might just be the BBC taking their informal duty to boost national morale a bit too seriously.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,213

    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    More importantly, treasury chequebook backed by credit rating and overdraft facility.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    The decline in Unionist representation for NI at Westminster:

    1974 F 91.7% (11/12 MPs)
    1974 O 83.3% (10/12 MPs)
    1979 75.0% (9/12 MPs)
    1983 88.2% (15/17 MPs)
    1987 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1992 76.5% (13/17 MPs)
    1997 72.2% (13/18 MPs)
    2001 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2005 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2010 50.0% (9/18 MPs)
    2015 61.1% (11/18 MPs)
    2017 55.6% (10/18 MPs)
    2019 44.4% (8/18 MPs)

    Alliance MPs effectively count as soft Unionists 'Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.'

    So including the Alliance MP in North Down with the 8 DUP MPs you get to 9 Unionist MPs, same as 2010
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    HYUFD said:

    There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

    You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax
    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, the BBC deserve congratulating for achieving something I thought impossible.

    They’ve put together an even shittier cricket highlights programme than Channel 5. Pointless talking heads, silly hype and too little fecking cricket.

    I got addicted to cricket in the 1990s thanks to the stylish commentary of people like Richie Benaud, Sunil Gavaskar and Jack Bannister. Today's highlights are useless compared to then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited July 2020

    People probably said the same thing about Scotland once.

    Call me a dreadful cynic if you must, but I don't get the impression that England is much admired elsewhere in the UK. It doesn't follow that everyone wants done with it. But enough people do, or at least would if they thought that they, personally, could afford it.

    Britain ceased to be a nation in any meaningful sense some time ago. All it is now is a loose confederacy, held together by the Treasury chequebook.
    No, Westminster remains the supreme Parliament for the whole UK and Scotland and Wales and NI get their own parliaments and assemblies too, the only deficit is in England which needs its own Parliament too in my view
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    The context is 2017.
    The 'contextualisers' are 2020 Tories prolapsing over the imminent collapse of Western civilisation and missing having Jezza to frighten the horses with.
    Seems so long ago 2017. I suppose it caused trauma in places how close he came. Certainly I was surprised by the level of fear and loathing on here in the run up to GE19 despite the big poll leads.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    Andy_JS said:

    I got addicted to cricket in the 1990s thanks to the stylish commentary of people like Richie Benaud, Sunil Gavaskar and Jack Bannister. Today's highlights are useless compared to then.
    Hark back to the silken tones of Jim Laker! Arlot's Hampshire brogue, mainly on the radio was just musical!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!
    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    stodge said:

    That's your view. It's not mine. The bigger question is whether you think people should be compelled to return to offices. That is inferred in Johnson's remarks and will no doubt be clarified later.

    Strange how everybody knows "a lot of people" who happen to agree with their position but isn't that the truth - people like people like themselves.
    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430


    Labour were right to bail the banks in 2008 - the alternative was to risk a panic run on the entire banking system - and the Conservatives are right to prop up businesses at the moment. They can't keep doing it forever, but if they can nurse the country through the worst of lockdown and the subsequent social distancing palaver then they can keep several million people paying taxes and limit the numbers trying to scrape by on universal credit whilst facing repossession or eviction notices. That's good for the workers who are saved from the scrapheap and it makes the burden of destitution that the country is going to have to bear that much lighter.

    Quite - Northern Rock showed Brown what a bank run in the 21st Century looks like and that, I suspect, led to the policy no bank could be allowed to fail.

    Allister Heath, with whose politics I am in vehement disagreement but on economics a man who I think talked a lot of sense, said every company should have a plan in place to deal with its own failure - a kind of Will which would determine what should happen in the event of the business becoming insolvent.

    The notion companies cannot be allowed to fail flies in the face of the market and capitalism. Businesses fail all the time. What happens is another opportunity comes along and replaces all or part of the business or someone comes in with a new idea better suited to the new conditions and prospers.

    I've cited Home Delivery services as one sector which has done really well out of lockdown yet it seems, to paraphrase Python, "every cafe is sacred". No, they aren't. Of course a business failure is terrible for the Owner and those involved. I get that - but business entails risk (as does so much else). Not so long ago, many on here were saying we should "open up" because it was worth the risk - maybe but why does the notion of risk with our individual health extend further than the notion of risk to our economic health?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,213
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    Except for UKIP and the populists.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    I also think that permanently WFH is bad for the soul, it limits general interaction with colleagues and friends to specific "fun" days which are prearranged. Honestly, I've made friends for life at my workplace, it wouldn't have been possible without the ability to just go to lunch together or go to the pub after work on Thursday and Friday. A bunch of us went on holiday together last year and had a great time, you couldn't do that without the social aspect of working together and generally being around each other all day.

    Again, it might be the industry/level I'm in which is mainly staffed by people in my age bracket with similar interests but I'd definitely miss it if the company decided to ditch the office and just did a WeWork a few times a month. Thankfully I'm not sure it's possible given our new building is just finished.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    That surely has to happen given the current climate.

    Does it mean we have to change the tune to "Good Old Arsenal?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    Except UKIP and the populists.
    They won their referendum 41 years after the first, not 6 years after the last one.

    Plus they want to keep the UK together, the clue is in the title
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    Was he but no, still no excuse.

    Two wrongs do not make a right
    I'm asking if it would make a difference.

    If it would it shows you were wrong to say the context doesn't matter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    MaxPB said:

    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.
    Less groupthink could be a big bonus
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999
    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,999
    kinabalu said:

    I'm asking if it would make a difference.

    If it would it shows you were wrong to say the context doesn't matter.
    Nothing excuses that
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    isam said:

    Less groupthink could be a big bonus
    Surely you get more groupthink when all of the thinking is done during scheduled meetings rather than off the cuff coffees and chats.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617
    Andy_JS said:

    I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

    "BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    HYUFD said:

    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    ...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

    It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    MaxPB said:

    Surely you get more groupthink when all of the thinking is done during scheduled meetings rather than off the cuff coffees and chats.
    I don't think so. I disagree that all the thinking would be done then, that would be when the talking is done, after people have independently thought about things without tailoring their comments to curry favour with the bosses
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.
    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    HYUFD said:

    Sensible decision to make face masks mandatory in shops as well as public transport as is now the case in Scotland to reduce the chance of a second peak
    It would have been sensible four months ago!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09

    By notionally adding between 20% and 30% extra traffic on already congested roads will be fun!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited July 2020

    ...but you are not saving the Union, you are saving Boris' legacy. No Indyref2 until Labour, they can then be blamed for losing the Union, equally no new taxes to pay for Johnson's spending spree, that is for Labour and them to shoulder the blame.

    It should be about more than protecting Johnson for the history books.
    No of course we are saving the Union, any indyref2 would see a chance of a Yes vote, 45% of Scots voted Yes in 2014 even before Brexit for goodness sake, so banning indyref2 for a generation is the best way to secure the Union until a next generation of Scots can decide if they want to renew it.

    Ed Miliband and Corbyn both went populist demanding more spending when Cameron and May were pursuing austerity so Labour deserves a taste of its own medicine if the Tories push keeping taxes low when Starmer is putting together a programme for raising taxes
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    "In the long run we will all be dead." Lord Keynes

    "In the short run go and drop dead." Donald Trump
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    kinabalu said:

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
    Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    This is interesting even if it was from 2018

    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1281266738454241280?s=09

    We've known about this for a long, long time. It was always the main argument against rail renationalisation: that, in an age when we are meant to be rebalancing spending away from London and the South-East, it would've resulted in massively subsidised season tickets that would have predominantly benefitted - guess who? - comfortably-off commuters, living in the South East and working in London.

    Of course, with the collapse of mass commuting the argument for state intervention becomes a much easier sell. If we want an extensive rail network at all then it may well have to be propped up by the Treasury, because it won't have enough customers left to finance itself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    Do you think someone provoking you with thoughts you don't like gives you a right for you to assault them?
    No.

    Now how about answering my question?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited July 2020

    The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

    Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?
    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    HYUFD said:

    No of course we are saving the Union, any indyref2 would see a chance of a Yes vote, 45% of Scots voted Yes in 2014 even before Brexit for goodness sake, so banning indyref2 for a generation is the best way to secure the Union until a next generation of Scots can decide if they want to renew it.

    Ed Miliband and Corbyn both went populist demanding more spending when Cameron and May were pursuing austerity so Labour deserves a taste of its own medicine if the Tories push keeping taxes low when Starmer is putting together a programme for raising taxes
    In the event of another 30 years of Tory governments, because Tory governments are so awesome. Not beyond the realms of possibly! When and how do you propose we pay for our current round of borrowing?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655
    Pagan2 said:

    Erm while I am sure that is all very interesting I have to ask what any of it has to do with me asking him to point to a single instance of socialism ever working?

    On top of which I have to say considering you are someone that thinks dripping hydrogen peroxide in their ears is good for colds I will take anything you say about health with a very large pinch of salt if you don't mind
    I was agreeing with you. :lol:

    And don't knock the ear drops till you've tried them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,430
    MaxPB said:


    I think people should be, WFH limits the dynamism of companies. We all already feel it, not being able to bounce ideas off each other over a coffee after lunch etc... has given us much less creativity. Maybe in your sector it's different but it's becoming a big deal for us, we're now trying 2-3h per day of having zoom on for everyone in the team in the background to see if that helps but so far it's not the same.

    It's about adaptation and evolution and in my view transcends physical proximity. If you all need to brainstorm regularly I understand the limitations of Zoom, Livestorm or even MS Teams but is it so limiting as to make physical proximity the preferred option?

    There are colleagues with whom I'd love to enjoy a coffee and a chat - I have to do that virtually. It's not the same but it's not that different.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,213
    HYUFD said:

    They won their referendum 41 years after the first, not 6 years after the last one.

    Plus they want to keep the UK together, the clue is in the title
    The 'nation' of the UK, ergo Britnat.
    Just like yersel.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.
    Possibly the least surprising revelation ever.

    This paragraph from Richard Morrison sums up the Wokeists' contempt for ordinary people. Not only are they not regular Prom-goers like the great (?) man, they dare to experience feelings of patriotism that are not 'ironic':

    'I look around me - particularly at the people sitting in the posh seats whom I've never seen at any other Proms - and realise that I can detect absolutely no sign of irony as they roar out these crudely jingoistic texts. On the contrary, they seem to mean every single word...'

    Get stuffed, Richard, there's a good fellow.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
    Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

    The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather that it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

    As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.
    Whiskey?

    Regiments plural?

    No,. it doesn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    I was agreeing with you. :lol:

    And don't knock the ear drops till you've tried them.
    You weren't agreeing with him you were disagreeing with a pastiche of me.

    He has published a very radical manifesto indeed at 6.41 which is what you need to be looking at.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

    The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather than it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.
    You, er, do know what Mr Cameron did the morning after indyref 1?

    In any case, it was the Unionist MPs of Scotland whjich meddled in "our" domestic business (Logivally enough I suppose), rather than the SNP ones, who espoused a self-denying ordinance (except where it affected the Barnett formula or it had a direct knockon effect on Scotland in some other sense).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    On topic, do YouGov still do the thing where they make allowances for the politically over engaged? Or was that just the MRP polls?
This discussion has been closed.