politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With five months to go how the US is dividing on the next Pres
Comments
-
It was over a hundred years ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature1 -
And that's fine, but it's awfully judgmental to get triggered if others have a different threshold.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.0 -
To be even more honest it isn't. Trump roundly rejected by the voters is necessary for fumigation. All other methods of removal are sub optimal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Their Fearless Leader make Trumpsky look like Abe Lincoln. Seems he (Putin's man in Brasilia) wants a military coup.LadyG said:1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
No doubt Putinist in the White House would like one too. But doubt the military would go along. Aside from the total un-American nature of a coup. by now most of the US military is NOT fond of The Donald, in case you hadn't noticed.0 -
Nikki Haley says 'hi'!rkrkrk said:
If I were a republican, I'd wait for 2024.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Running with Trump sniping from sidelines, on the back of a raging pandemic... No thanks.0 -
HAndy_JS said:
Who'd be the GOP candidate if he does drop out?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no idea, I am not into US politics other than I want Trump goneAndy_JS said:
Who'd be the GOP candidate if he does drop out?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Also one year for the EU Settlement scheme to run:
In total, as of 31 May 2020, the majority of applications were received from England (3,293,900), with an additional 180,700 from Scotland, 59,700 from Northern Ireland and 59,400 from Wales.
In total, as of 31 May 2020, Polish (697,900), Romanian (590,100) and Italian (363,600) nationals have submitted the highest number of applications. There have also been 189,800 applications received from non-EEA, non-Swiss nationals
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893070/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-may-2020.pdf0 -
People already do make jokes about it. Though I wouldn't advise it for anyone interested in having a political career.LadyG said:
It was over a hundred years ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature0 -
Trump/Biden is a terrible choice, Trump has to go but Biden looks doddery as hellkinabalu said:
To be even more honest it isn't. Trump roundly rejected by the voters is necessary for fumigation. All other methods of removal are sub optimal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Let Trump eff off and give America a more promising candidate. Someone without dementia0 -
You may have a point. But are these discrepancies really due to a faulty sample design or is it possible that differences in response rates reflect different levels of engagement in the respective camps, and therefor different turnout rates to be expected in November.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split0 -
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.0 -
Too soon.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200 -
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.1 -
GOP have lashed themselves to the mast of the Bad Ship Trumpsky. Sure they are squeaking and wishing to jump ship. BUT it's toooooo late for these vermin.rkrkrk said:
If I were a republican, I'd wait for 2024.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Running with Trump sniping from sidelines, on the back of a raging pandemic... No thanks.
NOTE that we haven't heard a peep from Nikki Haley for a while . Smart girl! Keep quiet, give Trumpsky a proforma endorsement, watch the trainwreck from a safe distance . . and wait for 2024, when IMHO she'll have excellent opportunity to pick up the pieces1 -
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.LadyG said:
It was over a hundred years ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".0 -
Watching Trump leave in a straitjacket might be amusing.kinabalu said:
To be even more honest it isn't. Trump roundly rejected by the voters is necessary for fumigation. All other methods of removal are sub optimal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:1 -
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect0 -
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge0 -
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.Foxy said:
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜1 -
"Trump/Biden is a terrible choice."
Better than Trump/Clinton. Both Trumsky & Hillary were/are widely disliked (understatement of the century!) Biden? Not so much. Even Bernie Bros can NOT keep up their synthetic hatred of Uncle Joe.0 -
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge0 -
That's quite goodPhilip_Thompson said:
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.LadyG said:
It was over a hundred years ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
I remember this joke. I heard it online from Irvine Welsh but it might have been Bernard Manning originally.
Two people are chatting in a bar and one of them makes a flippant remark about the Holocaust. The other freaks out:
"Don't say that. How dare you say that! My grandfather DIED in the Holocaust!"
2nd person, mortified:
"Oh God, I'm so sorry. What happened?"
"Oh, he got drunk and fell out of a watch-tower"5 -
Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???0 -
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..0 -
Well, we're all susceptible to confirmation bias - you as well as me.MrEd said:
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear.Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
One question about the education proportions:
You note that 'the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data'.
Do the 40% of citizens with HS or less vote in the same numbers as those with degrees?0 -
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.2 -
First district you mentioned is special case (Dem won narrowly in general, resigned due to scandal (affair with staffmember) Rep won special election (low turnout). Don't know what 2nd example is, however there are always a few seats/races that go against general trend.MrEd said:
Except that the Republicans flipped a Democrat House seat in a heavily suburban area two months back and increased their 2016 vote in another heavily suburban seat last week.Theuniondivvie said:Has this be done?
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1278062723658665985?s=20
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post1 -
There was a joke in American dad where the German guy in the body of a fish mentions his grandfather being a train conductor at Auschwitz, to gasps, before saying he drove the kiddy train at the zoo, and there are other things in the town.Philip_Thompson said:
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.LadyG said:
It was over a hundred years ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
There are thousands of other examples, I am sure. Even some like that are more than many people would like to see I imagine.1 -
Ha! You've answered my question to @MrEd. Thanks!edmundintokyo said:
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.1 -
Welp, one holocaust joke is probably enough for me. Pleasant dreams everyone - of a Trump defeat in November.1
-
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures leftPhilip_Thompson said:
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
Liverpool
City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League0 -
The Suffolk poll is registered voter not all adults, so it isn't going to follow the headline census educational attainment demographics. That said I don't know any estimates of what they are for registered voters.
You shouldn't compare to 2016 though as likely voters and registered voters are not the same either.0 -
Logical comparison for 2020 is 2016 - presidential year with presidential-year turnout. But makes sense to take note of trend 2016 > 2018.edmundintokyo said:
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
As for education skew, historically better-educated voters have been more likely to vote Republican. But not THIS year. Indeed, appears that sizeable majority of those who can read without moving their lips, let alone possessing college degrees, is highly allergic to Trumpsky. Gee, wonder why?0 -
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.Philip_Thompson said:
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.Foxy said:
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜0 -
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
2 -
Trump's odds to win the popular vote have almost reached 10/1 on Betfair.0
-
Re the thread headline: It's surely only just over four months to go.0
-
If the second wave is affecting mainly younger people you'd expect the death rate to be a lot less than previously. It'll be interesting to see if that happens.LadyG said:1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases1 -
Thanks klekle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, I didn't think it was that funny (though I think theuniondivvie is possibly the funniest poster on here) but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
*blushes*0 -
This is still the first wave, just saying.Andy_JS said:
If the second wave is affecting mainly younger people you'd expect the death rate to be a lot less than previously. It'll be interesting to see if that happens.LadyG said:1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases1 -
Would ask if you want to bet on that - but would be superfluous here on PB!dodrade said:
Much more likely than people think, better to do an LBJ, retire "undefeated" and perhaps get Pence to pardon him rather than be a "one term loser" like Carter.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
And still don't understand, why would Bobblehead pardon our Fearless Leader? To make himself a historical laughing-stock? You might think that it would help Pence with Trump supporters. Except that The Donald would be unlike to feel any gratitude (an emotion foreign to his nature) and more likely to trash his benefactor in seeking to "redeem" his sorry ass by making another run for a 2nd term in 2024.0 -
Absolutely right re bias, it burnt me badly in 2017 with Theresa May.Benpointer said:
Well, we're all susceptible to confirmation bias - you as well as me.MrEd said:
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear.Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
One question about the education proportions:
You note that 'the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data'.
Do the 40% of citizens with HS or less vote in the same numbers as those with degrees?
Re the voting intentions, probably not and Edmund made the point that High School and less voters made up only 18% of voters in 2016. To be honest I find that incredibly hard to believe but maybe it is right0 -
I know I was being tongue in cheek.isam said:
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.Philip_Thompson said:
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.Foxy said:
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.0 -
Democrats always win postgraduates, Republicans sometimes win graduates e.g. Bush in 2004 and Romney in 2012.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Logical comparison for 2020 is 2016 - presidential year with presidential-year turnout. But makes sense to take note of trend 2016 > 2018.edmundintokyo said:
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
As for education skew, historically better-educated voters have been more likely to vote Republican. But not THIS year. Indeed, appears that sizeable majority of those who can read without moving their lips, let alone possessing college degrees, is highly allergic to Trumpsky. Gee, wonder why?
Hillary won graduates in 2016 though1 -
I guess the Wikipedia numbers are also based on an (exit) poll, so it's not unthinkable that both polls might be wrong and low-education voters might just really hate talking to pollsters.MrEd said:
Re the voting intentions, probably not and Edmund made the point that High School and less voters made up only 18% of voters in 2016. To be honest I find that incredibly hard to believe but maybe it is right0 -
edmundintokyo said:
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.edmundintokyo said:
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.0 -
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in0 -
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures leftPhilip_Thompson said:
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
Liverpool
City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.0 -
To a degree CA-25 was unusual but the Republicans won it by +12. 2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%SeaShantyIrish2 said:
First district you mentioned is special case (Dem won narrowly in general, resigned due to scandal (affair with staffmember) Rep won special election (low turnout). Don't know what 2nd example is, however there are always a few seats/races that go against general trend.MrEd said:
Except that the Republicans flipped a Democrat House seat in a heavily suburban area two months back and increased their 2016 vote in another heavily suburban seat last week.Theuniondivvie said:Has this be done?
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1278062723658665985?s=20
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post0 -
Sounds like source material for your next novelLadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing0 -
Yes, although I guess African American voters also skew low-education and we know Hillary (unsurprisingly) lost quite a lot of African American turnout compared to Obama, so that would probably account for some of the drop.MrEd said:
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.0 -
PenceAndy_JS said:
Who'd be the GOP candidate if he does drop out?Big_G_NorthWales said:1 -
I accept that individual polls may not be too reliable but there is barely any polling that looks good for Trump right now. All I can think of is one state poll in Wisconsin out of the last 20 or 30 reports.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
That USA Today/ Suffolk polling has Trump disapproval at -18 but todays Rasmussen also has a disapproval of -12. Not a million miles away from what certainly used to be the most favourable Republican pollster. Another poll today had a 10% Biden lead.
0 -
There was a series of articles a few years back in the German press on City's dubious ways around the rules I'll try and find a linkPhilip_Thompson said:
I know I was being tongue in cheek.isam said:
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.Philip_Thompson said:
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.Foxy said:
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.0 -
https://www.spiegel.de/consent-a-?targetUrl=https://www.spiegel.de/international/manchester-city-exposed-bending-the-rules-to-the-tune-of-millions-a-1236346.html&ref=https://www-spiegel-de.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.spiegel.de/international/world/manchester-city-exposed-chapter-4-a-global-empire-a-1236622-amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3Disam said:
There was a series of articles a few years back in the German press on City's dubious ways around the rules I'll try and find a linkPhilip_Thompson said:
I know I was being tongue in cheek.isam said:
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.Philip_Thompson said:
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.Foxy said:
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.0 -
Are there any plans to gate the station?rottenborough said:
Nottingham, Loughborough, Coventry, maybe Brum will be next if they don't also lock Leicester station to only absolutely essential travel. Otherwise the bevy crew will be on those trains next saturday.Scott_xP said:
You can leave Leicester at 1132 on Saturday and be in the pub in Nottingham with a pint in your hand by noon.
Plenty of stuff online suggesting many are planning this.
0 -
United and Wolves are only 3 points behind Leicester and Leicester play Everton away tomorrow in a very important game for themPhilip_Thompson said:
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures leftPhilip_Thompson said:
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
Liverpool
City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.0 -
Covid hotspot where sensible people are staying at home, Dem vote went from 128,167 to 21,547, GOP vote went from 114,506 to 51,551. I wouldn't like to conclude much from that except there is definitely *some* of the GOP base that's fired up either for Trump or against lockdowns.MrEd said:2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%
0 -
Black voters like Biden, saved his candidature in South Carolina tbh.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, although I guess African American voters also skew low-education and we know Hillary (unsurprisingly) lost quite a lot of African American turnout compared to Obama, so that would probably account for some of the drop.MrEd said:
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.0 -
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".LadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.1 -
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.Andy_JS said:"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in1 -
I suspect this will hurt Trump, what with his huge, fragile ego.williamglenn said:
It's about as direct a snub as you can get.
YOU ARE A LEPER, STAY AWAY
I wonder how he will react0 -
It is very strange how quite so many PBers travel simultaneously to various places, have similar experiences, but never meet.eek said:
I do seem to remember a former poster on this site, (from memory a published author) posting something very similar a few months back...HYUFD said:
Sounds like source material for your next novel1 -
Above numbers show the risks of comparing elections with widely divergent turnout - if not apples to oranges, at least Golden Delicious versus Granny Smith.edmundintokyo said:
Covid hotspot where sensible people are staying at home, Dem vote went from 128,167 to 21,547, GOP vote went from 114,506 to 51,551. I wouldn't like to conclude much from that except there is definitely *some* of the GOP base that's fired up either for Trump or against lockdowns.MrEd said:2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%
Of course that cuts both ways. However, if you have multiple examples, you may be able to discern some apparent trendlines.0 -
I wonder if there is a novel (or 3) in such a tale.Foxy said:
It is very strange how quite so many PBers travel simultaneously to various places, have similar experiences, but never meet.eek said:
I do seem to remember a former poster on this site, (from memory a published author) posting something very similar a few months back...HYUFD said:
Sounds like source material for your next novel0 -
Those restrictions may exist for a long time... https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/just-50-americans-plan-get-covid-19-vaccine-here-s-how-win-over-restLadyG said:
I suspect this will hurt Trump, what with his huge, fragile ego.williamglenn said:
It's about as direct a snub as you can get.
YOU ARE A LEPER, STAY AWAY
I wonder how he will react0 -
A crackdown on sweatshops is long overdue. Some 15 years ago I was indirectly involved with a certain frozen pizza company who paid less than half the minimum wage to mostly illegal workers. Every few months they were raided, the owners fined, and the illegals arrested.Andy_JS said:"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in
Absolutely nowt was ever done about the low, illegal pay. They always continued trading, and do today. I have no idea whether they pay a proper wage or not now.
The focus was always on the illegal workers though. Never the illegal wages.
No wonder folk got fed up.1 -
Silver's model gave Trump a 30% chance and he repeatedly stated that a Trump win was within a normal-sized polling error, and his model predicted the US popular vote very accurately. The problem is that people are bad at interpreting probability, not Silver doing arse-covering.MrEd said:
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear.Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
I'm assuming you have bet quite heavily on a Trump victory given you seem hell-bent on talking up his chances and delving in Plato-esque "unskewing" of the polls.3 -
0
-
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond PlantationSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".LadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
http://hauntednation.blogspot.com/2016/08/ormond-plantation-destrehan-la_25.html
It was For Sale when I was there but still seems to be a B&B for now. The food is brilliant
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g40111-d2293116-Reviews-Ormond_Plantation_Manor_House-Destrehan_Louisiana.html
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!0 -
Certainly in US there is HIGH correlation between agricultural processing and COVID-19 cases. Here in Washington State, the Crud first hit hard in Seattle-area nursing homes. But then the action shifted to meat packing and crop processing plants in and near Yakima in Eastern WA. Where Latino/a (aka Latinx) workers account for the vast majority of payroll.Anabobazina said:
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.Andy_JS said:"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in
Talk about yer black humor - the folks who Trumpsky & much of GOP like to rag upon & rail against, are the backbone of this "essential" (at least that's no joke) workforce. Can hear the Devil laughing - God forgive us.1 -
.
Do the people traversing the border come from the hotspots in England? Cases in London probably have no effect on those in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:It's ok, it's not The National.
https://twitter.com/MrMcEnaney/status/1278062786376015874?s=200 -
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!0 -
3 points and a game in hand and a vastly superior goal difference = 7 more points need to be dropped.Big_G_NorthWales said:
United and Wolves are only 3 points behind Leicester and Leicester play Everton away tomorrow in a very important game for themPhilip_Thompson said:
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures leftPhilip_Thompson said:
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
Liverpool
City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.0 -
Rampers!Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!0 -
It is a bit of a daft headline.RobD said:.
Do the people traversing the border come from the hotspots in England? Cases in London probably have no effect on those in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:It's ok, it's not The National.
https://twitter.com/MrMcEnaney/status/1278062786376015874?s=20
Even if you get rid of it locally, for all values of locally, there will always be somewhere to import it from, whether that is England, Yorkshire, or the next street. For quite some time to come.
0 -
Indeed. Cheap, often underpaid, exploited immigrant labour providing cheap, plentiful, low nutrition food to feed the obesity of the native population. Leaving both groups vulnerable to a horrifying death whilst their exploiters bank fat profits.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Certainly in US there is HIGH correlation between agricultural processing and COVID-19 cases. Here in Washington State, the Crud first hit hard in Seattle-area nursing homes. But then the action shifted to meat packing and crop processing plants in and near Yakima in Eastern WA. Where Latino/a (aka Latinx) workers account for the vast majority of payroll.Anabobazina said:
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.Andy_JS said:"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in
Talk about yer black humor - the folks who Trumpsky & much of GOP like to rag upon & rail against, are the backbone of this "essential" (at least that's no joke) workforce. Can hear the Devil laughing - God forgive us.
Common to most of the West.
Suited everyone not to make too big a deal of it.
Karma is ripening.0 -
The some of the people you can fool all of the time isn’t as big a number as I’d come to believe...
https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/12780317509969182760 -
There are very few people with extreme views on PB, on either side.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!0 -
London isn't particularly a hotspot anymore.RobD said:.
Do the people traversing the border come from the hotspots in England? Cases in London probably have no effect on those in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:It's ok, it's not The National.
https://twitter.com/MrMcEnaney/status/1278062786376015874?s=200 -
I was suggesting their ramping rather than their politics was extreme.Andy_JS said:
There are very few people with extreme views on PB, on either side.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!
Good night.0 -
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.LadyG said:
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond PlantationSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".LadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
http://hauntednation.blogspot.com/2016/08/ormond-plantation-destrehan-la_25.html
It was For Sale when I was there but still seems to be a B&B for now. The food is brilliant
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g40111-d2293116-Reviews-Ormond_Plantation_Manor_House-Destrehan_Louisiana.html
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.0 -
He also wants a Trump victory beyond his book: he is a Trumpton as well as a Trump backer.not_on_fire said:
Silver's model gave Trump a 30% chance and he repeatedly stated that a Trump win was within a normal-sized polling error, and his model predicted the US popular vote very accurately. The problem is that people are bad at interpreting probability, not Silver doing arse-covering.MrEd said:
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear.Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
I'm assuming you have bet quite heavily on a Trump victory given you seem hell-bent on talking up his chances and delving in Plato-esque "unskewing" of the polls.0 -
Agreed, but there are several tiresome sycophantic fan boys - on both sides.Andy_JS said:
There are very few people with extreme views on PB, on either side.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!2 -
I ate hundreds of oysters in the French Quarter! Yummy. Went to lots of modern fusion restos as well. The standard is so so high.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.LadyG said:
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond PlantationSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".LadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
http://hauntednation.blogspot.com/2016/08/ormond-plantation-destrehan-la_25.html
It was For Sale when I was there but still seems to be a B&B for now. The food is brilliant
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g40111-d2293116-Reviews-Ormond_Plantation_Manor_House-Destrehan_Louisiana.html
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
My single favourite dish was the legendary turtle soup here, at the Commander's Palace, in the Garden District. They finish it with sherry at the table. You surely know it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander's_Palace
1 -
-
-
Had many a fine and/or enjoyable dining experience in New Orleans and environs, but sadly never at Commander's Palace. But am sure they did you fine. Because in NO bad or even average restaurants can stay in business unless they can bribe tour bus drivers; the locals simply will NOT go out to eat anywhere but good.LadyG said:
I ate hundreds of oysters in the French Quarter! Yummy. Went to lots of modern fusion restos as well. The standard is so so high.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.LadyG said:
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond PlantationSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".LadyG said:
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.LadyG said:
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.edmundintokyo said:
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
http://hauntednation.blogspot.com/2016/08/ormond-plantation-destrehan-la_25.html
It was For Sale when I was there but still seems to be a B&B for now. The food is brilliant
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g40111-d2293116-Reviews-Ormond_Plantation_Manor_House-Destrehan_Louisiana.html
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
My single favourite dish was the legendary turtle soup here, at the Commander's Palace, in the Garden District. They finish it with sherry at the table. You surely know it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander's_Palace
This isn't a class thing, it's culture. My mom got her gumbo recipe from her (Black) cleaning lady - it was mighty good. Another fav is red bean & rice, about as simple as you can get, and if done right fit for a king - or even a LadyG.
So much fun talking about NO & south Louisiana. And only barely alluded to my cab-driving days in Baton Rouge, and not said a word about such interesting people & things as Huey Long, Atchafalaya Basin, Edward Edwards, Justin Wilson (aka The Cajun Chef), Katrina, Paul Morphy, Louis Armstrong and the Honey Island Swamp Monster. Thank you so much, good lady!0 -
That's pretty good for The Donald, considering. Would have expected Biden up by a bit more. Methinks Tar Heel State will end up in Dem column - if Obama could take it (in 2008) then Uncle Joe should also. But will NOT be a walkover.HYUFD said:1 -
If he thinks I am an extreme tory ramper he is off his medsAndy_JS said:
There are very few people with extreme views on PB, on either side.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!
I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy in certain quarters - a tory breaches lockdown - - time for sackcloth and ashes
Labour personage - tumbleweed from those people
strange that .....2 -
Ah well, we've all got our own way of walking. And squinting.Floater said:
If he thinks I am an extreme tory ramper he is off his medsAndy_JS said:
There are very few people with extreme views on PB, on either side.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Dr Fox, the statement you have taken the trouble to reply to, really didn't deserve the effort.Foxy said:
Why? He is very popular and trying to make some sense out of the situation.Floater said:Has the Leicester mayor resigned yet?
I mean he should right???
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!
I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy in certain quarters - a tory breaches lockdown - - time for sackcloth and ashes
Labour personage - tumbleweed from those people
strange that .....0 -
46,000 new cases in the USA, today, so far. Possibly going to be a record
The virus THRIVES0 -
What's in a name? - Southern style
>> In Deep South, a kid doesn't call the neighbor lady next door "Mrs Smith" or whatever her last name is, as in the rest of America, but instead "Miss (pronounced "Miz" same as "Ms") Alice or Betty or Cathy or you get the idea. Which is both respectful AND intimate.
>> On of hallmarks of Jim Crow was extreme reluctance of Whites in general to call Blacks Mr. or Mrs or Miss. Because that stated a level of respect they were NOT willing (or allowed by social pressure) to accord to Blacks. Very few exceptions to this rule, typically well-educated (by local standards) preachers, professors & other professionals who were few & far between.
>> Save for exceptions noted above, Whites in the days of segregation would call Blacks they knew and employed by their first names. If they were old-school, would often call older Blacks Aunt and Uncle (i.e. "Aunt Jemima") without implying ANY family relation (God forbid!) Blacks on the other hand would speak to (or of) "Mr & Mrs Smith" or "Miss Daisy" (as in driving same). For a Black to call a White by their first name, unless they were VERY good friends and in private, was something that in some quarters might just get you fired, or arrested or worse.
>> Family goes to local WalMart, mom, dad and little girl 2-years old. They meet a Black couple in the aisle. The little girls get big, she points and blurts out, "Look Daddy - n____ers!" Their is a moment of stunned silence. Then her mother says, "Oh, I'm so sorry!; her father also apologizes. The Black couple smile and shrug it off. The little girl is silent, soaking it all in.0 -
This, on the other hand, is The NationalTheuniondivvie said:It's ok, it's not The National.
https://twitter.com/MrMcEnaney/status/1278062786376015874?s=20
https://youtu.be/yfySK7CLEEg0 -
LadyG said:
46,000 new cases in the USA, today, so far. Possibly going to be a record
The virus THRIVES
Nearly 20k in India too. If it carries on increasing they could break all the records so far.0 -
India death rate per million as of today 13, global average death rate per million 65williamglenn said:LadyG said:46,000 new cases in the USA, today, so far. Possibly going to be a record
The virus THRIVES
Nearly 20k in India too. If it carries on increasing they could break all the records so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/0
