Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
It was over a hundred years ago.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
And that's fine, but it's awfully judgmental to get triggered if others have a different threshold.
1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
Their Fearless Leader make Trumpsky look like Abe Lincoln. Seems he (Putin's man in Brasilia) wants a military coup.
No doubt Putinist in the White House would like one too. But doubt the military would go along. Aside from the total un-American nature of a coup. by now most of the US military is NOT fond of The Donald, in case you hadn't noticed.
Also one year for the EU Settlement scheme to run:
In total, as of 31 May 2020, the majority of applications were received from England (3,293,900), with an additional 180,700 from Scotland, 59,700 from Northern Ireland and 59,400 from Wales.
In total, as of 31 May 2020, Polish (697,900), Romanian (590,100) and Italian (363,600) nationals have submitted the highest number of applications. There have also been 189,800 applications received from non-EEA, non-Swiss nationals
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
It was over a hundred years ago.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
People already do make jokes about it. Though I wouldn't advise it for anyone interested in having a political career.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
You may have a point. But are these discrepancies really due to a faulty sample design or is it possible that differences in response rates reflect different levels of engagement in the respective camps, and therefor different turnout rates to be expected in November.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicans
If I were a republican, I'd wait for 2024. Running with Trump sniping from sidelines, on the back of a raging pandemic... No thanks.
GOP have lashed themselves to the mast of the Bad Ship Trumpsky. Sure they are squeaking and wishing to jump ship. BUT it's toooooo late for these vermin.
NOTE that we haven't heard a peep from Nikki Haley for a while . Smart girl! Keep quiet, give Trumpsky a proforma endorsement, watch the trainwreck from a safe distance . . and wait for 2024, when IMHO she'll have excellent opportunity to pick up the pieces
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
It was over a hundred years ago.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
Milne really was a big part of the problem, very glad he's gone. To be honest I assumed he already had. A period of silence from McCluskey lasting about the next 4 years would be next on my agenda.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
Better than Trump/Clinton. Both Trumsky & Hillary were/are widely disliked (understatement of the century!) Biden? Not so much. Even Bernie Bros can NOT keep up their synthetic hatred of Uncle Joe.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
It was over a hundred years ago.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
That's quite good
I remember this joke. I heard it online from Irvine Welsh but it might have been Bernard Manning originally.
Two people are chatting in a bar and one of them makes a flippant remark about the Holocaust. The other freaks out:
"Don't say that. How dare you say that! My grandfather DIED in the Holocaust!"
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear. 538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
Well, we're all susceptible to confirmation bias - you as well as me.
One question about the education proportions:
You note that 'the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data'.
Do the 40% of citizens with HS or less vote in the same numbers as those with degrees?
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Except that the Republicans flipped a Democrat House seat in a heavily suburban area two months back and increased their 2016 vote in another heavily suburban seat last week.
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post
First district you mentioned is special case (Dem won narrowly in general, resigned due to scandal (affair with staffmember) Rep won special election (low turnout). Don't know what 2nd example is, however there are always a few seats/races that go against general trend.
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low threshold
It was over a hundred years ago.
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
Some already do, just normally discretely and not overtly.
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
There was a joke in American dad where the German guy in the body of a fish mentions his grandfather being a train conductor at Auschwitz, to gasps, before saying he drove the kiddy train at the zoo, and there are other things in the town.
There are thousands of other examples, I am sure. Even some like that are more than many people would like to see I imagine.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures left
Liverpool City Chelsea Man Utd Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
The Suffolk poll is registered voter not all adults, so it isn't going to follow the headline census educational attainment demographics. That said I don't know any estimates of what they are for registered voters.
You shouldn't compare to 2016 though as likely voters and registered voters are not the same either.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Logical comparison for 2020 is 2016 - presidential year with presidential-year turnout. But makes sense to take note of trend 2016 > 2018.
As for education skew, historically better-educated voters have been more likely to vote Republican. But not THIS year. Indeed, appears that sizeable majority of those who can read without moving their lips, let alone possessing college degrees, is highly allergic to Trumpsky. Gee, wonder why?
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases
If the second wave is affecting mainly younger people you'd expect the death rate to be a lot less than previously. It'll be interesting to see if that happens.
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSE
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippant
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.
It won't be for everyone, I didn't think it was that funny (though I think theuniondivvie is possibly the funniest poster on here) but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases
If the second wave is affecting mainly younger people you'd expect the death rate to be a lot less than previously. It'll be interesting to see if that happens.
Much more likely than people think, better to do an LBJ, retire "undefeated" and perhaps get Pence to pardon him rather than be a "one term loser" like Carter.
Would ask if you want to bet on that - but would be superfluous here on PB!
And still don't understand, why would Bobblehead pardon our Fearless Leader? To make himself a historical laughing-stock? You might think that it would help Pence with Trump supporters. Except that The Donald would be unlike to feel any gratitude (an emotion foreign to his nature) and more likely to trash his benefactor in seeking to "redeem" his sorry ass by making another run for a 2nd term in 2024.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear. 538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
Well, we're all susceptible to confirmation bias - you as well as me.
One question about the education proportions:
You note that 'the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data'.
Do the 40% of citizens with HS or less vote in the same numbers as those with degrees?
Absolutely right re bias, it burnt me badly in 2017 with Theresa May.
Re the voting intentions, probably not and Edmund made the point that High School and less voters made up only 18% of voters in 2016. To be honest I find that incredibly hard to believe but maybe it is right
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.
I know I was being tongue in cheek.
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Logical comparison for 2020 is 2016 - presidential year with presidential-year turnout. But makes sense to take note of trend 2016 > 2018.
As for education skew, historically better-educated voters have been more likely to vote Republican. But not THIS year. Indeed, appears that sizeable majority of those who can read without moving their lips, let alone possessing college degrees, is highly allergic to Trumpsky. Gee, wonder why?
Democrats always win postgraduates, Republicans sometimes win graduates e.g. Bush in 2004 and Romney in 2012.
Re the voting intentions, probably not and Edmund made the point that High School and less voters made up only 18% of voters in 2016. To be honest I find that incredibly hard to believe but maybe it is right
I guess the Wikipedia numbers are also based on an (exit) poll, so it's not unthinkable that both polls might be wrong and low-education voters might just really hate talking to pollsters.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
My reply to Stodge also applies to this - in any poll you can always find a specific subsample that seems wrong, it doesn't mean polls don't work.
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18 Some college education: 32 College graduate: 32 Postgraduate education: 18
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures left
Liverpool City Chelsea Man Utd Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.
Except that the Republicans flipped a Democrat House seat in a heavily suburban area two months back and increased their 2016 vote in another heavily suburban seat last week.
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post
First district you mentioned is special case (Dem won narrowly in general, resigned due to scandal (affair with staffmember) Rep won special election (low turnout). Don't know what 2nd example is, however there are always a few seats/races that go against general trend.
To a degree CA-25 was unusual but the Republicans won it by +12. 2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.
Yes, although I guess African American voters also skew low-education and we know Hillary (unsurprisingly) lost quite a lot of African American turnout compared to Obama, so that would probably account for some of the drop.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
I accept that individual polls may not be too reliable but there is barely any polling that looks good for Trump right now. All I can think of is one state poll in Wisconsin out of the last 20 or 30 reports.
That USA Today/ Suffolk polling has Trump disapproval at -18 but todays Rasmussen also has a disapproval of -12. Not a million miles away from what certainly used to be the most favourable Republican pollster. Another poll today had a 10% Biden lead.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.
I know I was being tongue in cheek.
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.
There was a series of articles a few years back in the German press on City's dubious ways around the rules I'll try and find a link
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Our form has been poor since December. Need to start scoring again. Fans getting restive with Rodgers. Pretty tight at the back, but nowhere near the scoring of the first half of the season.
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
I think there will be European football next season even if its behind closed doors (there's too much cash involved for there not to be). If Formula One can go from country to country then so too can football.
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
It's being played in Portugal in August, or at least is scheduled to be.
I know I was being tongue in cheek.
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.
There was a series of articles a few years back in the German press on City's dubious ways around the rules I'll try and find a link
Nottingham, Loughborough, Coventry, maybe Brum will be next if they don't also lock Leicester station to only absolutely essential travel. Otherwise the bevy crew will be on those trains next saturday.
Are there any plans to gate the station?
You can leave Leicester at 1132 on Saturday and be in the pub in Nottingham with a pint in your hand by noon.
Plenty of stuff online suggesting many are planning this.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures left
Liverpool City Chelsea Man Utd Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.
United and Wolves are only 3 points behind Leicester and Leicester play Everton away tomorrow in a very important game for them
2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%
Covid hotspot where sensible people are staying at home, Dem vote went from 128,167 to 21,547, GOP vote went from 114,506 to 51,551. I wouldn't like to conclude much from that except there is definitely *some* of the GOP base that's fired up either for Trump or against lockdowns.
Cheers Edmund. The weird thing is that the polling for the 2012 election showed that 24% had a High School diploma or less vs the 18% for 2016. So if both are correct, it somewhat undermines the argument that Trump won because mainly white working class whites came out for him that hadn't voted before.
Yes, although I guess African American voters also skew low-education and we know Hillary (unsurprisingly) lost quite a lot of African American turnout compared to Obama, so that would probably account for some of the drop.
Black voters like Biden, saved his candidature in South Carolina tbh.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.
2nd one is NY-27 - previous Congressman had resigned due to a prison sentence, had barely held his seat in 2018 post-indictment. Vote this time round for GOP was 69%
Covid hotspot where sensible people are staying at home, Dem vote went from 128,167 to 21,547, GOP vote went from 114,506 to 51,551. I wouldn't like to conclude much from that except there is definitely *some* of the GOP base that's fired up either for Trump or against lockdowns.
Above numbers show the risks of comparing elections with widely divergent turnout - if not apples to oranges, at least Golden Delicious versus Granny Smith.
Of course that cuts both ways. However, if you have multiple examples, you may be able to discern some apparent trendlines.
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
A crackdown on sweatshops is long overdue. Some 15 years ago I was indirectly involved with a certain frozen pizza company who paid less than half the minimum wage to mostly illegal workers. Every few months they were raided, the owners fined, and the illegals arrested. Absolutely nowt was ever done about the low, illegal pay. They always continued trading, and do today. I have no idea whether they pay a proper wage or not now. The focus was always on the illegal workers though. Never the illegal wages. No wonder folk got fed up.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear. 538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
Silver's model gave Trump a 30% chance and he repeatedly stated that a Trump win was within a normal-sized polling error, and his model predicted the US popular vote very accurately. The problem is that people are bad at interpreting probability, not Silver doing arse-covering.
I'm assuming you have bet quite heavily on a Trump victory given you seem hell-bent on talking up his chances and delving in Plato-esque "unskewing" of the polls.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond Plantation
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.
Certainly in US there is HIGH correlation between agricultural processing and COVID-19 cases. Here in Washington State, the Crud first hit hard in Seattle-area nursing homes. But then the action shifted to meat packing and crop processing plants in and near Yakima in Eastern WA. Where Latino/a (aka Latinx) workers account for the vast majority of payroll.
Talk about yer black humor - the folks who Trumpsky & much of GOP like to rag upon & rail against, are the backbone of this "essential" (at least that's no joke) workforce. Can hear the Devil laughing - God forgive us.
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Well done.
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
Leicester have Everton, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth away and Palace, Sheff Utd and Man Utd at home.
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
But Leicester can safely drop below at least one of them and still be fourth.
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
This top five is possible on present form and fixtures left
Liverpool City Chelsea Man Utd Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
Possible but unlikely, it'd take a perfect storm as I said.
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.
United and Wolves are only 3 points behind Leicester and Leicester play Everton away tomorrow in a very important game for them
3 points and a game in hand and a vastly superior goal difference = 7 more points need to be dropped.
Do the people traversing the border come from the hotspots in England? Cases in London probably have no effect on those in Scotland.
It is a bit of a daft headline.
Even if you get rid of it locally, for all values of locally, there will always be somewhere to import it from, whether that is England, Yorkshire, or the next street. For quite some time to come.
"Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
It’s now seemingly possible to map many of the European outbreaks to cheap meat processing and/or sweatshop labour. By contrast, the virus has all but vanished from many areas.
Certainly in US there is HIGH correlation between agricultural processing and COVID-19 cases. Here in Washington State, the Crud first hit hard in Seattle-area nursing homes. But then the action shifted to meat packing and crop processing plants in and near Yakima in Eastern WA. Where Latino/a (aka Latinx) workers account for the vast majority of payroll.
Talk about yer black humor - the folks who Trumpsky & much of GOP like to rag upon & rail against, are the backbone of this "essential" (at least that's no joke) workforce. Can hear the Devil laughing - God forgive us.
Indeed. Cheap, often underpaid, exploited immigrant labour providing cheap, plentiful, low nutrition food to feed the obesity of the native population. Leaving both groups vulnerable to a horrifying death whilst their exploiters bank fat profits. Common to most of the West. Suited everyone not to make too big a deal of it. Karma is ripening.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond Plantation
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear. 538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
Silver's model gave Trump a 30% chance and he repeatedly stated that a Trump win was within a normal-sized polling error, and his model predicted the US popular vote very accurately. The problem is that people are bad at interpreting probability, not Silver doing arse-covering.
I'm assuming you have bet quite heavily on a Trump victory given you seem hell-bent on talking up his chances and delving in Plato-esque "unskewing" of the polls.
He also wants a Trump victory beyond his book: he is a Trumpton as well as a Trump backer.
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond Plantation
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
I ate hundreds of oysters in the French Quarter! Yummy. Went to lots of modern fusion restos as well. The standard is so so high.
My single favourite dish was the legendary turtle soup here, at the Commander's Palace, in the Garden District. They finish it with sherry at the table. You surely know it!
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Is this poll (or the Marist one) *supposed* to be demographically balanced by region?
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
Whites are STILL splitting for Trump. Incredible.
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
Re: race, their has been a true sea change over here post-George Floyd. Which is a BIG surprise to yours truly and many, many others. Reminiscent of the sea change that took place re: gay marriage and (to lesser but still crucial degree) marijuana legalization. Except with race it is a MUCH bigger deal, because racial injustice is America's Original Sin.
Yes, I see that. You can sense it. This is sincere (and it may be good for America: I truly hope so).
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
Wow, reading your story give me goosebumps! As a graduate of Louisiana State University ("Good ole boys from LSU / Go in dumb come out dumb too") am very familiar with places you visited. Is the plantation The Myrtles in St Francisville? Only a few miles from Angola Penitentiary, made famous by "Dead Man Walking".
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
I found my haunted Airbnb! It was this place, the Ormond Plantation
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
Ah, Destrahan on the River Road. Very convenient to NO. As for food in Crescent City, first place I ever tried oysters on the half shell was Acme Oyster House in the Quarter; ordered one half-dozen, then another. Then walked across Iberville St and had some more at Felix's. Brennan's is classic place to go for breakfast, my family's favorite restaurant was Pascal's Manale for the BBQ shrimp. My fav was in Chalmette (near site of Battle of NO) Rocky & Carlo's best damn po-boys in the world.
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
I ate hundreds of oysters in the French Quarter! Yummy. Went to lots of modern fusion restos as well. The standard is so so high.
My single favourite dish was the legendary turtle soup here, at the Commander's Palace, in the Garden District. They finish it with sherry at the table. You surely know it!
Had many a fine and/or enjoyable dining experience in New Orleans and environs, but sadly never at Commander's Palace. But am sure they did you fine. Because in NO bad or even average restaurants can stay in business unless they can bribe tour bus drivers; the locals simply will NOT go out to eat anywhere but good.
This isn't a class thing, it's culture. My mom got her gumbo recipe from her (Black) cleaning lady - it was mighty good. Another fav is red bean & rice, about as simple as you can get, and if done right fit for a king - or even a LadyG.
So much fun talking about NO & south Louisiana. And only barely alluded to my cab-driving days in Baton Rouge, and not said a word about such interesting people & things as Huey Long, Atchafalaya Basin, Edward Edwards, Justin Wilson (aka The Cajun Chef), Katrina, Paul Morphy, Louis Armstrong and the Honey Island Swamp Monster. Thank you so much, good lady!
That's pretty good for The Donald, considering. Would have expected Biden up by a bit more. Methinks Tar Heel State will end up in Dem column - if Obama could take it (in 2008) then Uncle Joe should also. But will NOT be a walkover.
>> In Deep South, a kid doesn't call the neighbor lady next door "Mrs Smith" or whatever her last name is, as in the rest of America, but instead "Miss (pronounced "Miz" same as "Ms") Alice or Betty or Cathy or you get the idea. Which is both respectful AND intimate.
>> On of hallmarks of Jim Crow was extreme reluctance of Whites in general to call Blacks Mr. or Mrs or Miss. Because that stated a level of respect they were NOT willing (or allowed by social pressure) to accord to Blacks. Very few exceptions to this rule, typically well-educated (by local standards) preachers, professors & other professionals who were few & far between.
>> Save for exceptions noted above, Whites in the days of segregation would call Blacks they knew and employed by their first names. If they were old-school, would often call older Blacks Aunt and Uncle (i.e. "Aunt Jemima") without implying ANY family relation (God forbid!) Blacks on the other hand would speak to (or of) "Mr & Mrs Smith" or "Miss Daisy" (as in driving same). For a Black to call a White by their first name, unless they were VERY good friends and in private, was something that in some quarters might just get you fired, or arrested or worse.
>> Family goes to local WalMart, mom, dad and little girl 2-years old. They meet a Black couple in the aisle. The little girls get big, she points and blurts out, "Look Daddy - n____ers!" Their is a moment of stunned silence. Then her mother says, "Oh, I'm so sorry!; her father also apologizes. The Black couple smile and shrug it off. The little girl is silent, soaking it all in.
Comments
Eventually we will make jokes about the Holocaust. It is human nature
No doubt Putinist in the White House would like one too. But doubt the military would go along. Aside from the total un-American nature of a coup. by now most of the US military is NOT fond of The Donald, in case you hadn't noticed.
In total, as of 31 May 2020, the majority of applications were received from England (3,293,900), with an additional 180,700 from Scotland, 59,700 from Northern Ireland and 59,400 from Wales.
In total, as of 31 May 2020, Polish (697,900), Romanian (590,100) and Italian (363,600) nationals have submitted the highest number of applications. There have also been 189,800 applications received from non-EEA, non-Swiss nationals
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893070/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-may-2020.pdf
Let Trump eff off and give America a more promising candidate. Someone without dementia
We may scrape CL, but not convinced. I do have my doubts about whether there will be European football next season.
Generally with any poll you can look at the various subsamples and find something in it that will allow you to say "this poll shows X getting 85% of left-handed people, that can't be right". But that doesn't mean the poll is wrong, it means you shouldn't try to draw broad conclusions about geographical splits or anything else from the subsamples of a single poll.
NOTE that we haven't heard a peep from Nikki Haley for a while . Smart girl! Keep quiet, give Trumpsky a proforma endorsement, watch the trainwreck from a safe distance . . and wait for 2024, when IMHO she'll have excellent opportunity to pick up the pieces
One I can think of, off the top of my head, was in The Big Bang Theory. Just before Howard (Jewish) married Bernadette (Catholic), Bernadette says that their ancestors used to live next door to each other in Poland, to which Penny replies "That's cool" and Amy says "No it's not, I'll explain to you later".
Check Wolves, Chelsea, and Man Utd fixtures and it is far more in doubt than you would expect
I had this thought the other day. The American left is kinda lucky that Trump is such a flailing and incompetent idiot. So utterly inept that he is going to lose an election when a reasonably clever, non-insane Republican populist could soak up the white vote and win at a canter
If the Woke Wars continue, this race divide, in America, will not get better. A more persuasive and articulate demagogue than Trump may yet emerge
However given the Champions League hasn't resumed yet I think the 2019-20 Champions League season should just be abandoned and the 2019 Champions should just retain the title for another 12 months until a proper European campaign can be run. 😜
Better than Trump/Clinton. Both Trumsky & Hillary were/are widely disliked (understatement of the century!) Biden? Not so much. Even Bernie Bros can NOT keep up their synthetic hatred of Uncle Joe.
I remember this joke. I heard it online from Irvine Welsh but it might have been Bernard Manning originally.
Two people are chatting in a bar and one of them makes a flippant remark about the Holocaust. The other freaks out:
"Don't say that. How dare you say that! My grandfather DIED in the Holocaust!"
2nd person, mortified:
"Oh God, I'm so sorry. What happened?"
"Oh, he got drunk and fell out of a watch-tower"
I mean he should right???
If the CAS upholds City's ban, as they should, then Leicester would need to be overtaken by all three teams you named. They would need to drop at least seven points more than both Wolves and Man Utd. They'd only need to drop 2 more than Chelsea to be fair who also still have a game in hand.
Given that Spurs are 10 points behind, realistically unless Man City convince the CAS to get themselves readmitted it would take a perfect storm to see Leicester fall out of the Top 5..
One question about the education proportions:
You note that 'the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data'.
Do the 40% of citizens with HS or less vote in the same numbers as those with degrees?
That said, you're comparing to the 2018 census, but isn't it better to compare to the 2016 election? Wikipedia has:
High school or less: 18
Some college education: 32
College graduate: 32
Postgraduate education: 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
So 24% with High School or Less is bigger than actual number of 18%, and 42% for Bachelor or Higher is smaller than the actual number of (32%+18%=) 50%.
PS. I'm a little bit surprised by how high the education levels of voters skew.
There are thousands of other examples, I am sure. Even some like that are more than many people would like to see I imagine.
Liverpool
City
Chelsea
Man Utd
Wolves
It may not happen but pre lockdown I do not think anyone would consider Leicester in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League
You shouldn't compare to 2016 though as likely voters and registered voters are not the same either.
As for education skew, historically better-educated voters have been more likely to vote Republican. But not THIS year. Indeed, appears that sizeable majority of those who can read without moving their lips, let alone possessing college degrees, is highly allergic to Trumpsky. Gee, wonder why?
I did a trip to the Deep South a few months ago, toured New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and read a dozen books on slavery as I drove around. It really opened my eyes to how much slavery affects America even to this day. I went to the Natchez Trace where 2 million slaves were walked south from Nashville. Barely known now
I stayed in a Plantation house, 20 miles from New Orleans, where I had one of the few possibly and truly supernatural experiences of my life. It's a long story but as soon as I was shown my room in an otherwise deserted building (the whole thing was like Psycho) I got the heebie jeebies. It was surely haunted. It was awful, a sense of throbbing evil
I was up half the night freakin' out (the room full of vintage dolls didn't help) and when I finally slept I had weird vivid horrifying dreams of ghoulish children all over the house, and playing with a strange determination, in the garden
In the morning the staff returned and I said "Er, is this place meant to be haunted"? And the chef (lovely woman) said "Oh yeah, we get people sayin they can hear children playing on the stairs and in the garden". Then I told her my dreams and she went very pale
I researched the building later that day and it was the scene of a tremendous atrocity against rebel slaves in about 1810 and notorious in general for cruelty to slaves, including kids
I'll try and look up a reference
So, yes, I get the whole Original Sin thing
*blushes*
And still don't understand, why would Bobblehead pardon our Fearless Leader? To make himself a historical laughing-stock? You might think that it would help Pence with Trump supporters. Except that The Donald would be unlike to feel any gratitude (an emotion foreign to his nature) and more likely to trash his benefactor in seeking to "redeem" his sorry ass by making another run for a 2nd term in 2024.
Re the voting intentions, probably not and Edmund made the point that High School and less voters made up only 18% of voters in 2016. To be honest I find that incredibly hard to believe but maybe it is right
What do everyone expect with the CAS though for City?
They really should be banned, not just for breaking the rules but for trying to cover it up too. I know their being banned means United can get a CL place for fifth but even still the principles of fair play mean I think City's ban should be upheld even if that allows United in through the back door.
Hillary won graduates in 2016 though
Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase"
(£)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/30/some-leicester-factories-stayed-open-and-forced-staff-to-come-in
Leicester dropping more points than Man Utd and Wolves seems possible to be sure, but seven more points than both of them? That really would be choking if it happens.
Of course if the CAS reverses City's ban then that changes things dramatically.
That USA Today/ Suffolk polling has Trump disapproval at -18 but todays Rasmussen also has a disapproval of -12. Not a million miles away from what certainly used to be the most favourable Republican pollster. Another poll today had a 10% Biden lead.
You can leave Leicester at 1132 on Saturday and be in the pub in Nottingham with a pint in your hand by noon.
Plenty of stuff online suggesting many are planning this.
The Natchez Trace is an amazing historical/scenic highway. When I lived in Baton Rouge and traveled regularly up to West Virginia & back, my preference was to take NT from Natchez to Nashville; speed limit was lower than interstate, but it was shorter drive, less traffic, MUCH more pleasant driving - and at night you could make up for lost time because no traffic at all, no cops, and good road without many curves & such. HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT, It was indeed slave-drivers trail, but also used by others including Andy Jackson's army of Tennesseans who used it to reach New Orleans in time to greet their British cousins. (For more details, dust off your old Johnny Horton record.)
First time I was ever in Deep South was 1973 when my folks moved to Slidell, LA just across Lake Pontchartrain from NO. Was an eye-opener; culture shock + immediate aftermath of civil rights revolution. Ended up hanging out with folks ranging from Black cab drivers to White former (and semi-reformed) KKKers, who had a share love for many things characteristic of the Southland. (Sorta like Prots and Taigs in Belfast)
Thing that struck me was, Black Americans, leastways in the South, are among the most forgiving people in the world. Heck, by the late 70s in Alabama, they were voting for George Wallace. Partly cause he was better than the Republican alternatives, but largely because he asked for their forgiveness and turned a new leaf. Something Black folks could truly understand and deeply appreciate. Faith, hope and charity.
Peter Soulsby is the sort of salt of the earth Labour that gives the party a good name.
It's about as direct a snub as you can get.
YOU ARE A LEPER, STAY AWAY
I wonder how he will react
Of course that cuts both ways. However, if you have multiple examples, you may be able to discern some apparent trendlines.
Absolutely nowt was ever done about the low, illegal pay. They always continued trading, and do today. I have no idea whether they pay a proper wage or not now.
The focus was always on the illegal workers though. Never the illegal wages.
No wonder folk got fed up.
I'm assuming you have bet quite heavily on a Trump victory given you seem hell-bent on talking up his chances and delving in Plato-esque "unskewing" of the polls.
https://twitter.com/MrMcEnaney/status/1278062786376015874?s=20
http://hauntednation.blogspot.com/2016/08/ormond-plantation-destrehan-la_25.html
It was For Sale when I was there but still seems to be a B&B for now. The food is brilliant
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g40111-d2293116-Reviews-Ormond_Plantation_Manor_House-Destrehan_Louisiana.html
I hope to go back and tour the entire Natchez Trace in the next year..... plagues permitting.....
I loved New Orleans. The best food in America, I reckon. Even if the history of slavery sometimes hangs heavy.
Couldn't get on with sazerac tho!
Talk about yer black humor - the folks who Trumpsky & much of GOP like to rag upon & rail against, are the backbone of this "essential" (at least that's no joke) workforce. Can hear the Devil laughing - God forgive us.
I am back to work, so have far less time for PB, clearly the extreme Tory tampers are not as they are again out in tiresome force.
Good fortune to you and your city!
Even if you get rid of it locally, for all values of locally, there will always be somewhere to import it from, whether that is England, Yorkshire, or the next street. For quite some time to come.
Common to most of the West.
Suited everyone not to make too big a deal of it.
Karma is ripening.
https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1278031750996918276
Good night.
BUT if you find yourself in New Orleans, and can go to just ONE eatery, my suggestion is to go to Cafe Du Monde across from Jackson Sq and get you at least one order of beigets with a cup of cafe au lait - very traditional, very good though a tad messy due to the powdered sugar - but who cares? Laissez le bon teimps rouler! And Geaux Tigers!
Check out great book: "Biennville's Dilemma - A Historical Geography of New Orleans.
My single favourite dish was the legendary turtle soup here, at the Commander's Palace, in the Garden District. They finish it with sherry at the table. You surely know it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander's_Palace
This isn't a class thing, it's culture. My mom got her gumbo recipe from her (Black) cleaning lady - it was mighty good. Another fav is red bean & rice, about as simple as you can get, and if done right fit for a king - or even a LadyG.
So much fun talking about NO & south Louisiana. And only barely alluded to my cab-driving days in Baton Rouge, and not said a word about such interesting people & things as Huey Long, Atchafalaya Basin, Edward Edwards, Justin Wilson (aka The Cajun Chef), Katrina, Paul Morphy, Louis Armstrong and the Honey Island Swamp Monster. Thank you so much, good lady!
I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy in certain quarters - a tory breaches lockdown - - time for sackcloth and ashes
Labour personage - tumbleweed from those people
strange that .....
The virus THRIVES
>> In Deep South, a kid doesn't call the neighbor lady next door "Mrs Smith" or whatever her last name is, as in the rest of America, but instead "Miss (pronounced "Miz" same as "Ms") Alice or Betty or Cathy or you get the idea. Which is both respectful AND intimate.
>> On of hallmarks of Jim Crow was extreme reluctance of Whites in general to call Blacks Mr. or Mrs or Miss. Because that stated a level of respect they were NOT willing (or allowed by social pressure) to accord to Blacks. Very few exceptions to this rule, typically well-educated (by local standards) preachers, professors & other professionals who were few & far between.
>> Save for exceptions noted above, Whites in the days of segregation would call Blacks they knew and employed by their first names. If they were old-school, would often call older Blacks Aunt and Uncle (i.e. "Aunt Jemima") without implying ANY family relation (God forbid!) Blacks on the other hand would speak to (or of) "Mr & Mrs Smith" or "Miss Daisy" (as in driving same). For a Black to call a White by their first name, unless they were VERY good friends and in private, was something that in some quarters might just get you fired, or arrested or worse.
>> Family goes to local WalMart, mom, dad and little girl 2-years old. They meet a Black couple in the aisle. The little girls get big, she points and blurts out, "Look Daddy - n____ers!" Their is a moment of stunned silence. Then her mother says, "Oh, I'm so sorry!; her father also apologizes. The Black couple smile and shrug it off. The little girl is silent, soaking it all in.
https://youtu.be/yfySK7CLEEg
Nearly 20k in India too. If it carries on increasing they could break all the records so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/