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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With five months to go how the US is dividing on the next Pres
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With five months to go how the US is dividing on the next President
So many WH2020 polls are coming out at the moment but virtually all are showing the same big picture – Biden with double digit leads.
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The only one I can think of is with the country that has the worst Corona numbers in Europe, but if you can suggest any others...
Like the care of asylum seekers.
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278033125889708033
And the for/against pattern still strong.
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278027489621745667
Interesting regarding who is changing opinion. IMO this likely means the change is mostly occuring in places that already are Democrat.
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278056226136391681
Just watched the final episode of the Hillary documentary. They thought they had won on the morning of the election.
* Personally would suggest a suppressed virus is good for the economy as well as people's health, but not everyone sees it that way.
Any decent GOPer should vote Biden. No ifs, no buts.
NYT recently had story comparing 13 possible Biden VP running mates. Yours truly rated them re: experience (good & bad), home state (battleground or not), progressiveism (in balancing Uncle Joe), diversity (Black or Latina a plus) and "other" for factors not included above.
For example, as to experience, gave US senators & governors points, but not congresswoman or mayors; in case of Susan Rice, I deducted a point because while her experience as NSA and UN Ambassador is significant, think bring up Libya, Syria and foreign policy in general is NOT.
When I added up the points, my top 3 choices ended up being
>> Stacey Abrams (GA US Senate candidate 2018) - low on experience (state legislature) but ran good US Senate race; from battleground state; very popular with progressives, Black which will hep with turnout, also an excellent speaker and debater
>> Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM Governor) - only been Gov a year but good marks so far; from battleground state, popular with progressives, only Latina under consideration (it appears) which helps in number of key state; westerner to balance out easterner Biden (note that New NM is WAY more "western" in cultural sense than Cali)
>> Tammy Duckworth (IL US Senator) - Iraq War veteran helicopter pilot who lost her legs after being shot down in combat; reasonably popular (with a few caveats) with progressives, only Asian American under consideration (her mother Thai, her father White American); gets under Trumpsky's skin
Checking around, but looks like I've lost Joe's number, and he's not called me in while (like never). SO maybe some eagle-eyed Biden staffer will see these words of wisdom and convey to Uncle Joe? Though personally am AOK with whomever he chooses - even Ivanka!
'How to lose an election'
or
'Twenty reasons why Imperialist America is behind everything that is wrong in the world'
MAGA was a slogan tailor-made for these these folks. Who by definition (age 65+) were born before 1955 and achieved voting age before 1973. In short, baby-boomers. Few directly impacted by Great Depression, some by WW2, more by Vietnam War, Watergate & 1970s energy crisis.
Health care is a BIG deal for these voters. And they do NOT like being put in harms way by breakdown of our technically top-noch but functionally anarchic health care "system" under the watch of our Fearless Leader.
Oh, and did I forget to mention - they VOTE.
(I am not doubting you, just interested to know what 'represents' means here.)
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up.
In the poll in the OP 9% of Republicans/Lean Republicans are planning to vote for Biden. Hence my "nearly a tenth" remark.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1278006468038529024
Surely, this means SKS is pretty much guaranteed to still have majority on the NEC regardless of whatever the results of the forthcoming CLP NEC elections are?
Drowsy Joe Biden would have a much much harder time against almost anyone else. Give America a proper choice. Maybe someone without mental health issues. I mean, there must be SOMEONE
These are not the best of times. The BBC is becoming shit and should be liberated from the licence fee.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1278078660365475841
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1277950640862294016?s=20
In 2008 he held his own against Sarah Palin, which was NOT as easy as it might seem in retrospect. And in 2012 he bested Paul Ryan (remember him?)
My favorite though was his extended debate with Robert Bork. He let the learned jurist take plenty enough rope to hang himself with - then yanked his head off for him
Biden will do sunny side up stuff and people generally don't hate him. Trump has the dislikeability in spades with way too many people.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
And IMHO the CHOPers are Putinist puppets (conscious or not) producing extended Re-Elect Trump commerial.
My left-wing friends (way to left of yours truly) are fed up with their antics. Seems they are obvious to fact they are responsible for several death. What, we're responsible? YES - when you make a point of keep the cops out but do nothing to police the place yourselves. They MADE themselves responsible.
Should be noticed that the incredible incompetence of SPD and their ham-handed use of pepper-spray & wis-bangs against PEACEFUL demonstrators - not the anarchists who took advantage of the situation - was root cause for CHOP creation. Because the fuzz drove protesters out of downtown and up to Capitol Hill.
IF you thinking I'm just bashing police, note that one of my sources of info is fellow who was in the city's emergency command post, his desk right next to cops on the phone ordering . . . wait for it . . . more gas & bombs.
This guy also went out on the streets. At one point there were a small group of older Black men in front of police lines exhorting the protesters. Cops assumed they were stirring the crowd up - when in actual fact they were trying to cool them down. However, the forces of order simply were NOT listening.
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1278062723658665985?s=20
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact
Only 4th in my work league though beating Fox Jr for the first time in years.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18550402.devi-sridhar-explains-what-scotland-got-right-covid-19-fight/
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
The news that Trump has essentially bought up all Remdesivir for the next 3 months, eloquently makes the case for compulsory licensing.
Not great.
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post
It won't be for everyone, I didn't think it was that funny (though I think theuniondivvie is possibly the funniest poster on here) but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases
Fat Jimmy Savile, the stuff of nightmares.
Dear Jim, can you fix it for me to drive a digger through a wall of boxes?
Running with Trump sniping from sidelines, on the back of a raging pandemic... No thanks.
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.
So badly lost interest that I have skippered Aguero this week, and he's out for the season!