politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With five months to go how the US is dividing on the next Pres
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With five months to go how the US is dividing on the next President
So many WH2020 polls are coming out at the moment but virtually all are showing the same big picture – Biden with double digit leads.
0
Comments
-
Premier.0
-
Lock him up.1
-
Second but no prize for that I’ll just revfecommend The Last Jew in Spain as an excellent read if interested in that period of history.2
-
Ftp.
How many borders do you think Scotland has?Floater said:
Are they going to close the borders to anyone else or just the UK?Black_Rook said:
I've actually a certain amount of sympathy for the Scottish Government in this situation. The prevalence of the disease in Scotland is lower than that in England and they are clearly worried about reinfection.CarlottaVance said:
The UK Government has already decided that taking a cricket bat to various businesses in Leicester is a price worth paying in the fight against the disease. Scotland is, of course, to a very great degree internally autonomous, including in most matters to do with public health; therefore, if the Scottish Government thinks that doing likewise to its tourist sector is a price worth paying for the greater good, then why not let it do so?
The only one I can think of is with the country that has the worst Corona numbers in Europe, but if you can suggest any others...0 -
Do they serve McDonalds in Federal penitentiaries?TheScreamingEagles said:Lock him up.
0 -
Flights, boats?Theuniondivvie said:Ftp.
How many borders do you think Scotland has?Floater said:
Are they going to close the borders to anyone else or just the UK?Black_Rook said:
I've actually a certain amount of sympathy for the Scottish Government in this situation. The prevalence of the disease in Scotland is lower than that in England and they are clearly worried about reinfection.CarlottaVance said:
The UK Government has already decided that taking a cricket bat to various businesses in Leicester is a price worth paying in the fight against the disease. Scotland is, of course, to a very great degree internally autonomous, including in most matters to do with public health; therefore, if the Scottish Government thinks that doing likewise to its tourist sector is a price worth paying for the greater good, then why not let it do so?
The only one I can think of is with the country that has the worst Corona numbers in Europe, but if you can suggest any others...0 -
That's Priti's remit.RobD said:
Flights, boats?Theuniondivvie said:Ftp.
How many borders do you think Scotland has?Floater said:
Are they going to close the borders to anyone else or just the UK?Black_Rook said:
I've actually a certain amount of sympathy for the Scottish Government in this situation. The prevalence of the disease in Scotland is lower than that in England and they are clearly worried about reinfection.CarlottaVance said:
The UK Government has already decided that taking a cricket bat to various businesses in Leicester is a price worth paying in the fight against the disease. Scotland is, of course, to a very great degree internally autonomous, including in most matters to do with public health; therefore, if the Scottish Government thinks that doing likewise to its tourist sector is a price worth paying for the greater good, then why not let it do so?
The only one I can think of is with the country that has the worst Corona numbers in Europe, but if you can suggest any others...
Like the care of asylum seekers.0 -
Lots in that poll to cheer Democrats, but I can't help but wonder at the lead that Trump still has on the economy. That's remarkable in the circumstances and provides a basis for thinking that a Trump victory is still plausible.2
-
FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.0 -
Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.0 -
FPT
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278033125889708033
And the for/against pattern still strong.
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278027489621745667
Interesting regarding who is changing opinion. IMO this likely means the change is mostly occuring in places that already are Democrat.
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/12780562261363916810 -
Thanks. I 'aint counting no chickens.stodge said:FPT
Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473
The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.
The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.
Yes, I know...
The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.
I can't quite believe some of these big Biden leads - the Midwest sample looks a massive outlier which would throw out the White vote poll sample as well.
Just watched the final episode of the Hillary documentary. They thought they had won on the morning of the election.0 -
I suppose if the choice is presented as death or the economy with Trump on the side of death, he does catch the breaks on the economy side of that trade-off*.LostPassword said:Lots in that poll to cheer Democrats, but I can't help but wonder at the lead that Trump still has on the economy. That's remarkable in the circumstances and provides a basis for thinking that a Trump victory is still plausible.
* Personally would suggest a suppressed virus is good for the economy as well as people's health, but not everyone sees it that way.1 -
Not a huge Republican lead among the elderly.0
-
The Lincoln Project represents nearly a tenth of Republicans, impressive.
Any decent GOPer should vote Biden. No ifs, no buts.2 -
FPT
NYT recently had story comparing 13 possible Biden VP running mates. Yours truly rated them re: experience (good & bad), home state (battleground or not), progressiveism (in balancing Uncle Joe), diversity (Black or Latina a plus) and "other" for factors not included above.
For example, as to experience, gave US senators & governors points, but not congresswoman or mayors; in case of Susan Rice, I deducted a point because while her experience as NSA and UN Ambassador is significant, think bring up Libya, Syria and foreign policy in general is NOT.
When I added up the points, my top 3 choices ended up being
>> Stacey Abrams (GA US Senate candidate 2018) - low on experience (state legislature) but ran good US Senate race; from battleground state; very popular with progressives, Black which will hep with turnout, also an excellent speaker and debater
>> Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM Governor) - only been Gov a year but good marks so far; from battleground state, popular with progressives, only Latina under consideration (it appears) which helps in number of key state; westerner to balance out easterner Biden (note that New NM is WAY more "western" in cultural sense than Cali)
>> Tammy Duckworth (IL US Senator) - Iraq War veteran helicopter pilot who lost her legs after being shot down in combat; reasonably popular (with a few caveats) with progressives, only Asian American under consideration (her mother Thai, her father White American); gets under Trumpsky's skin
Checking around, but looks like I've lost Joe's number, and he's not called me in while (like never). SO maybe some eagle-eyed Biden staffer will see these words of wisdom and convey to Uncle Joe? Though personally am AOK with whomever he chooses - even Ivanka!1 -
A new broom sweeps clean. Nice one Keir!Scott_xP said:1 -
https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1278071720855953408Foxy said:A new broom sweeps clean. Nice one Keir!
0 -
What's the book?Scott_xP said:
'How to lose an election'
or
'Twenty reasons why Imperialist America is behind everything that is wrong in the world'4 -
They are age group hardest hit by COVID-19. And they are NOT happy with Trumpsky, whose "leadership" has caused more American deaths than Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2 and Obama combined.kle4 said:Not a huge Republican lead among the elderly.
MAGA was a slogan tailor-made for these these folks. Who by definition (age 65+) were born before 1955 and achieved voting age before 1973. In short, baby-boomers. Few directly impacted by Great Depression, some by WW2, more by Vietnam War, Watergate & 1970s energy crisis.
Health care is a BIG deal for these voters. And they do NOT like being put in harms way by breakdown of our technically top-noch but functionally anarchic health care "system" under the watch of our Fearless Leader.
Oh, and did I forget to mention - they VOTE.0 -
How do you know that?Philip_Thompson said:The Lincoln Project represents nearly a tenth of Republicans, impressive.
(I am not doubting you, just interested to know what 'represents' means here.)
0 -
Regarding that PB thread a couple of days ago on Ladbrokes new next cabinet minister to leave market: it’s still absent from Ladbrokes website. Has Shadsy changed his mind? PBers were not exactly impressed.0
-
Those are the sorts of programmes that need killing off. Question Time, Newsnight. anything with John Humphreys on it past or presentBlack_Rook said:Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up.0 -
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:1 -
Not literally. The Lincoln Project is the name for a group of Republicans campaigning against Trump and planning to vote for Biden because Trump goes against what the Republicans should be for. Better a Democrat than Trump for those Republicans.Benpointer said:
How do you know that?Philip_Thompson said:The Lincoln Project represents nearly a tenth of Republicans, impressive.
(I am not doubting you, just interested to know what 'represents' means here.)
In the poll in the OP 9% of Republicans/Lean Republicans are planning to vote for Biden. Hence my "nearly a tenth" remark.0 -
Ah right, makes sense - thanks.Philip_Thompson said:
Not literally. The Lincoln Project is the name for a group of Republicans campaigning against Trump and planning to vote for Biden because Trump goes against what the Republicans should be for. Better a Democrat than Trump for those Republicans.Benpointer said:
How do you know that?Philip_Thompson said:The Lincoln Project represents nearly a tenth of Republicans, impressive.
(I am not doubting you, just interested to know what 'represents' means here.)
In the poll in the OP 9% of Republicans/Lean Republicans are planning to vote for Biden. Hence my "nearly a tenth" remark.0 -
Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
0 -
-
(I shall not miss it when the license fee =goes as it must.. there is Times Radio and many other news outlets.. Why, with free choice you could read "The Canary" if you wanted to....squareroot2 said:
Those are the sorts of programmes that need killing off. Question Time, Newsnight. anything with John Humphreys on it past or presentBlack_Rook said:Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up.2 -
Not sure if this was mentioned earlier, but...
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1278006468038529024
Surely, this means SKS is pretty much guaranteed to still have majority on the NEC regardless of whatever the results of the forthcoming CLP NEC elections are?0 -
Feeling better for that?squareroot2 said:
Those are the sorts of programmes that need killing off. Question Time, Newsnight. anything with John Humphreys on it past or presentBlack_Rook said:Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up. 0 -
God I hope not. Let him be gone.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Drowsy Joe Biden would have a much much harder time against almost anyone else. Give America a proper choice. Maybe someone without mental health issues. I mean, there must be SOMEONE0 -
immensely!!!Benpointer said:
Feeling better for that?squareroot2 said:
Those are the sorts of programmes that need killing off. Question Time, Newsnight. anything with John Humphreys on it past or presentBlack_Rook said:Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up.1 -
That the telly tax pays for radio is a farce at the best of times.squareroot2 said:
(I shall not miss it when the license fee =goes as it must.. there is Times Radio and many other news outlets.. Why, with free choice you could read "The Canary" if you wanted to....squareroot2 said:
Those are the sorts of programmes that need killing off. Question Time, Newsnight. anything with John Humphreys on it past or presentBlack_Rook said:Defeated by new thread...
FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.squareroot2 said:
Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.Foxy said:
Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?Philip_Thompson said:
Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.BluestBlue said:
You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you...Scott_xP said:
Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.
If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
(I know its woke, its very 1984 really)..... BBC news, BBC breakfast anything woke. Sack half of the BBC hangers on, and then get rid of the license fee. Let "Wokenders" types pay for the shite the BBC dishes up.
These are not the best of times. The BBC is becoming shit and should be liberated from the licence fee.0 -
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200 -
So first Keir Starmer and now the Premier League distance themselves from BLM.. and I'm the one "losing credibilty" for pointing out right from the beginning that they were far left cranks that people should avoid being associated with1
-
Did BoZo's relaunch make the front page of any papers tonight?
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/12780786603654758410 -
-
Yes. Get over it already, you look as obsessed as a Remainer banging on about the bus.isam said:So first Keir Starmer and now the Premier League distance themselves from BLM.. and I'm the one "losing credibilty" for pointing out right from the beginning that they were far left cranks that people should avoid being associated with
0 -
Nottingham, Loughborough, Coventry, maybe Brum will be next if they don't also lock Leicester station to only absolutely essential travel. Otherwise the bevy crew will be on those trains next saturday.Scott_xP said:0 -
-
The most important line in that infographic is Battleground states Biden 52 Trump 46. If that split persists, Trump will loose easily.0
-
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=202 -
0
-
Which states are "Battleground"?eristdoof said:The most important line in that infographic is Battleground states Biden 52 Trump 46. If that split persists, Trump will loose easily.
0 -
CHAZ doesn't seem so great - murder, rape etc etc
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1277950640862294016?s=200 -
Obviously not Alaska and California.Philip_Thompson said:
Which states are "Battleground"?eristdoof said:The most important line in that infographic is Battleground states Biden 52 Trump 46. If that split persists, Trump will loose easily.
1 -
Believe you & others are underestimating Uncle Joe based on a few lackluster performances early this year. And even during 2020 nomination campaign, he rose to the occasion when he really had to, most notably just prior to SC primary.LadyG said:
God I hope not. Let him be gone.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Drowsy Joe Biden would have a much much harder time against almost anyone else. Give America a proper choice. Maybe someone without mental health issues. I mean, there must be SOMEONE
In 2008 he held his own against Sarah Palin, which was NOT as easy as it might seem in retrospect. And in 2012 he bested Paul Ryan (remember him?)
My favorite though was his extended debate with Robert Bork. He let the learned jurist take plenty enough rope to hang himself with - then yanked his head off for him1 -
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200 -
Az, Fl,Mi, NC, Pa and Wieristdoof said:
Obviously not Alaska and California.Philip_Thompson said:
Which states are "Battleground"?eristdoof said:The most important line in that infographic is Battleground states Biden 52 Trump 46. If that split persists, Trump will loose easily.
0 -
Only his hairdresser (or is it his gardener?) knows for sure!LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200 -
Forget the chat about the economy in the US election, this is going to come down to likeability or more, precisely a lack of dislikeability.
Biden will do sunny side up stuff and people generally don't hate him. Trump has the dislikeability in spades with way too many people.0 -
In little over one hour we move to confirmation of no further extension and deal or no dealScott_xP said:1 -
I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split0 -
-
I haven't so at least I've managed to escape that excuse for piousness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=201 -
Nah. The communities that the disease is persisting in are not big drinkers.rottenborough said:
Nottingham, Loughborough, Coventry, maybe Brum will be next if they don't also lock Leicester station to only absolutely essential travel. Otherwise the bevy crew will be on those trains next saturday.Scott_xP said:0 -
Much more likely than people think, better to do an LBJ, retire "undefeated" and perhaps get Pence to pardon him rather than be a "one term loser" like Carter.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...0
-
You are behind the times, buddy, CHAZ is now CHOP.isam said:CHAZ doesn't seem so great - murder, rape etc etc
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1277950640862294016?s=20
And IMHO the CHOPers are Putinist puppets (conscious or not) producing extended Re-Elect Trump commerial.
My left-wing friends (way to left of yours truly) are fed up with their antics. Seems they are obvious to fact they are responsible for several death. What, we're responsible? YES - when you make a point of keep the cops out but do nothing to police the place yourselves. They MADE themselves responsible.
Should be noticed that the incredible incompetence of SPD and their ham-handed use of pepper-spray & wis-bangs against PEACEFUL demonstrators - not the anarchists who took advantage of the situation - was root cause for CHOP creation. Because the fuzz drove protesters out of downtown and up to Capitol Hill.
IF you thinking I'm just bashing police, note that one of my sources of info is fellow who was in the city's emergency command post, his desk right next to cops on the phone ordering . . . wait for it . . . more gas & bombs.
This guy also went out on the streets. At one point there were a small group of older Black men in front of police lines exhorting the protesters. Cops assumed they were stirring the crowd up - when in actual fact they were trying to cool them down. However, the forces of order simply were NOT listening.0 -
The word you are looking for is respectTheuniondivvie said:
I haven't so at least I've managed to escape that excuse for piousness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200 -
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
0
-
Bog Roll Bandits - another killer name for a rock band!Scott_xP said:0 -
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split0 -
Can you please define "massive" and on what basis you came to this conclusion?Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split0 -
Only a few minutes until the Brexit transition extension deadline is officially gone.0
-
I think the results are good enough for you because it is what you want to hear.Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
538 is not God and has been know to get it wrong before. Nate Silver's a*se covering about the 2016 election can't hide that fact0 -
"We won the argument" A story of the most incredible and triumphant success for the Labour party.Scott_xP said:1 -
Is this man alleging that there is a.... liar?? Quite high up in.... POLITICS????Scott_xP said:0 -
Regardless of who's publishing, this is worthwhile article on approaches to virus management. Devi Sridhar makes the point about local lockdowns is that they encourage people to flee the lockdown area and spread the virus to other places. I don't think the Leicester lockdown is being handled properly.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18550402.devi-sridhar-explains-what-scotland-got-right-covid-19-fight/0 -
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat0 -
How did 538 do in 2016?Benpointer said:
538 rates Suffolk University polling as 'A'. That's good enough for me.MrEd said:I looked at the data for the USA Today survey that came out today with a +12 Biden lead. One very noticeable feature was that it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data.
So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
This is why I have don;t have a huge amount of belief in the polls. It is increasingly evident that educational attainment is a key driver of whether someone will vote for Trump or Biden. If the polls are skewing their respondents to those with degrees and away from those that don't, it is not representing the true demographic split
0 -
One of my big, if perhaps fanciful hopes, for this crisis was that we would reform the way drugs and vaccines research and development is funded.
The news that Trump has essentially bought up all Remdesivir for the next 3 months, eloquently makes the case for compulsory licensing.0 -
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
I'm afraid I'm getting Jimmy Savile again. Hadn't happened for a while but it's back with a vengeance.Theuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
Not great.0 -
Except that the Republicans flipped a Democrat House seat in a heavily suburban area two months back and increased their 2016 vote in another heavily suburban seat last week.Theuniondivvie said:Has this be done?
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1278062723658665985?s=20
But you won't hear much about that in the Huffington Post1 -
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, I didn't think it was that funny (though I think theuniondivvie is possibly the funniest poster on here) but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.2 -
I am 432 331 in the overall leagueFoxy said:0 -
Who'd be the GOP candidate if he does drop out?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
1,200 deaths, so far today, in Brazil. It's not getting better
And a notable 58 deaths in Florida, so far, today. Deaths are possibly beginning to follow the rise in cases0 -
This is suburban Louisville district. Winner came close last election, won special election thanks to Trump-accelerated trend among better educated, more affluent voters in Bluegrass State and across the United States.Theuniondivvie said:Has this be done?
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1278062723658665985?s=200 -
It's gone.williamglenn said:Only a few minutes until the Brexit transition extension deadline is officially gone.
0 -
Christ, yes.kinabalu said:
I'm afraid I'm getting Jimmy Savile again. Hadn't happened for a while but it's back with a vengeance.Theuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
Not great.
Fat Jimmy Savile, the stuff of nightmares.1 -
yes, I see the resemblance now.kinabalu said:
I'm afraid I'm getting Jimmy Savile again. Hadn't happened for a while but it's back with a vengeance.Theuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
Not great.
Dear Jim, can you fix it for me to drive a digger through a wall of boxes?1 -
He really does think he is some kind of groovy guru, doesn't he?Scott_xP said:0 -
If I were a republican, I'd wait for 2024.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is more important there is a better voice than Trump for the Republicanskinabalu said:
I will be SO pissed off if he does. The big loss at the polls is needed. It's important.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Wishful thinking, methinksBig_G_NorthWales said:
Running with Trump sniping from sidelines, on the back of a raging pandemic... No thanks.0 -
To be honest when it involves the tragic death of many innocents including children I have a very low thresholdkle4 said:
You seem to often have a difficulty with the concept of black humour. It's a thing, particularly with things that happened a long time ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=20
It won't be for everyone, but as much as I'm not averse to a bit of sanctimony myself, there's little need for it just because a joke is dark.0 -
Unlikely. Leicester have a game in hand don't forget and they've got a far superior goal difference. Leicester could lose 2 consecutive games and still be ahead of their rivals on goal difference at least.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well done.Foxy said:Could I just take a moment to proclaim that I am top of the PB FF league? It may not last...
Looks as if Leicester FC champions league place is coming under threat
Dropping down to 5th seems unlikely let alone 6th if City's suspension is confirmed by the CAS.0 -
I am doing terribly, 1587ptsFoxy said:
So badly lost interest that I have skippered Aguero this week, and he's out for the season!0 -
Yes, it's impossible to have respect if someone makes a joke. Listen to yourself!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The word you are looking for is respectTheuniondivvie said:
I haven't so at least I've managed to escape that excuse for piousness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you had been to the official Titanic Museum and attended the graves of the lost, including a child, in Nova Scotia you may not be so flippantTheuniondivvie said:
Something of the look of a floater picked up 4 days after the Titanic went down for me, but perceptions differ..LadyG said:
Yes, he looks fine. Back to normal. He is a 56 year old guy with a newborn, who was recently in ICU, and he has to be prime minister too. I'm surprised he doesn't look WORSETheuniondivvie said:Does anyone genuinely think BJ looks in good health? Fit as a Wuhan butcher's dog maybe.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1278041946070618113?s=200
This discussion has been closed.