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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Rubbish. 2007/08 is a false floor because it was the peak of an economic boom just before the crash and after half a decade of governmental overspending. If - as you claim - you believe that governmental spending increases real wages, then surely you must also accept that governmental overspending before the correction in the period of 2002-2007/8 had inflated wages beyond where they should have been and which could not be afforded.

    Is it your intention that we never have a correction, we just keep inflating wages forever?
    Adding that we were in the middle of a deflationary cycle driven by Chinese imports which at a stroke reduced prices for good we already didn't make which increased real disposable income rates. That has now unwound and chances are will go in the opposite direction as businesses diversify supply chains away from China and Chinese labour costs continue to rise due to a tight labour market.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    RobD said:

    How would it not have been a political move?

    If he had been appointed because of his skills and abilities (as suggested by Gove) and not simply because he drank the Kool-Aid, which Frank Spencer just confirmed was his only qualification.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Phil said:

    Rubbish: Real average weekly earning growth was negative for /six/ years after 2008, briefly went positive for a couple of years after that, then slumped back to 0% in 2017. 2019 was OK & then the coronavirus hit.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/june2020

    There was plenty of room for counter-cyclical expenditure in the years after 2008.
    Like this?

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607

    Rubbish. 2007/08 is a false floor because it was the peak of an economic boom just before the crash and after half a decade of governmental overspending. If - as you claim - you believe that governmental spending increases real wages, then surely you must also accept that governmental overspending before the correction in the period of 2002-2007/8 had inflated wages beyond where they should have been and which could not be afforded.

    Is it your intention that we never have a correction, we just keep inflating wages forever?
    Debt driven deflation is very, very bad for a modern credit money economy, so yes, that is what we have to do. It’s not ideal, but you go to war with the monetary system you have not the one you want, etc etc.

    Or perhaps you would have preferred a repeat of the 1930s?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504615-michigan-candidates-daughter-urges-people-not-to-vote-for-him-in-viral

    “I don’t buy into this whole systemic racism thing at all,” he later said.

    “I’m not saying there’s not hurdles to overcome. We all have hurdles to overcome. You know, as a quote-unquote rich, white, Christian male, people look at me a certain way. And it’s not always good. So, everybody has obstacles to overcome,”
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Phil said:

    Debt driven deflation is very, very bad for a modern credit money economy, so yes, that is what we have to do. It’s not ideal, but you go to war with the monetary system you have not the one you want, etc etc.

    Or perhaps you would have preferred a repeat of the 1930s?
    We didn't have debt driven deflation though. We had inflation not deflation and a correction to the unsustainable spending from the disastrous Brown era.

    In real terms there was a correction to wages but that had to happen because of the mess made of the finances by the prior disastrous government spending out of control during the growth period. Keynes famously observed that wages were "sticky downwards" and by having a few years where wages were frozen or growing slower than inflation the economy was able to be restored without a greater catastrophe.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited June 2020
    MaxPB said:

    The public sector uses the word "impossible" way too often.
    It should have done so ahead of Iraq & Afghanistan but said "possible".
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    Quebec got almost total control and full budget control to ensure there was no further referendum, that will never happen with the crooks and gangsters running England.
    I know what Cameron, Miliband and Clegg ought to have done upon winning in 2014. They didn’t, and now it’s too late.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    The 2 handle on betfair has gone - out to 3 now - but this rumour is probably nonsense and I hope it is. I will feel cheated if Trump does not run and dodges his (now inevitable) humiliation at the polls. Bets will pay out - which is great - but Nov 3rd will lose its magic. I also think a resounding rejection by the voters of him and everything he stands for - which is nothing - is needed. He should leave as he came in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    kinabalu said:

    The 2 handle on betfair has gone - out to 3 now - but this rumour is probably nonsense and I hope it is. I will feel cheated if Trump does not run and dodges his (now inevitable) humiliation at the polls. Bets will pay out - which is great - but Nov 3rd will lose its magic. I also think a resounding rejection by the voters of him and everything he stands for - which is nothing - is needed. He should leave as he came in.

    You are far too emotionally involved.

    Divorce it from your betting.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    TOPPING said:

    It should have done so ahead of Iraq & Afghanistan but said "possible".
    In what respect? If you mean legality, then that's a fair point.

    If you mean in terms of achieving a goal, well that's much harder to do. I think Afghanistan in particular was a waste of time and lives, but it was certainly possible "to do something".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:
    Anyone else who invents their own version of "facts and reality" to get in the way of the governments program it was elected to do. I don't know who first said it, but I've always liked the saying "do not tell me what can't be done, find a way to do it".

    Or alternative "things change so fast nowadays that people saying "it can't be done" are constantly interrupted by those doing it".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    tlg86 said:

    In what respect? If you mean legality, then that's a fair point.

    If you mean in terms of achieving a goal, well that's much harder to do. I think Afghanistan in particular was a waste of time and lives, but it was certainly possible "to do something".
    Militarily.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,734
    edited June 2020
    Charles said:

    Really? I haven’t read the primary research personally but my impression from the reporting was that the main benefit was to other people
    Teasing out cause and effect - particularly when differentiating the benefits of individual mask use versus universal community use - is difficult, as you can't subject volunteers to challenge trials.
    However we do now have considerable evidence suggesting that both surgical and cloth masks, if well fitted, provide some barrier to both respiratory droplets and aerosol.

    The biggest recent study I'm aware of showing clear and direct empirical evidence of the benefit of mask wearing is this one.

    Universal Masking is an Effective Strategy to Flatten the SARS-CoV-2 Healthcare Worker Epidemiologic Curve
    https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/9301E77612122039190A29CB7223F9C4/S0899823X2000313Xa.pdf/universal_masking_is_an_effective_strategy_to_flatten_the_sarscov2_healthcare_worker_epidemiologic_curve.pdf
    ...Of the healthcare-associated cases, 70% were related to unmasked exposure to another HCW for more than 10 minutes less than 6 feet apart and 30% were thought to be secondary to direct care of SARS- CoV-2 positive patients
    One week following the implementation of universal masking on March 31, 2020, we observed a significant decrease in the cumulative incidence rate of healthcare-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections among HCWs (Figure) (LRT 4.38, p-value 0.03). The cumulative incidence rates in community-acquired cases and cases with no clear source of acquisition did not significantly change, however, and continued to mirror the cumulative incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 in the communities surrounding Duke Health....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320

    I expect (at present) a Labour victory in 2024.

    I think you are being unduly pessimistic about your team's prospects, CR.

    Johnson's repeated and consistent electoral success is built on the fact that he tells the English a story about themselves that they very much like. He tells them they are special and can do things that other countries cannot. Furthermore they can do these things better when unencumbered by relations with other countries (apart from America), the woke box tickers of the civil service or an insufficiently compliant lamestream media. That story will still be appealing in 2024.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TOPPING said:

    Militarily.
    Isn't it up to the military brass to make that point rather than the civil service?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't it up to the military brass to make that point rather than the civil service?
    You said public sector. I count HMF as part of the public sector.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TOPPING said:

    You said public sector. I count HMF as part of the public sector.
    Fair enough, though I'd count it as a special category.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    malcolmg said:

    It is the most important political event in Scotland David so hardly surprising. Neglect and obstruction by Westminster and removal of the few powers we had are our main problems. We will never prosper whilst our bullying large neighbour controls our money and our economy.
    We have control of schools but have had the uncorrected disaster of Curriculum for Excellence resulting in our falling down the Pisa tables because the government is scared of taking on the EIS and making teachers accountable for their results.

    We have control of our police and the total embarrassment of Police Scotland and a police force that seems ever more focused on politics rather than actual crime prevention.

    We have control of our criminal justice system. Its a disgrace, constantly fiddling with new crimes to make political points, trying to tip the playing field in favour of complainers because the rape conviction rate is deemed not high enough and letting psychopaths out of overcrowded prisons because some boxes have been ticked.

    We have control of our University sector. We are now in serious danger of real damage to our leading 3 Universities because of a dishonest system which involved Scottish students getting fewer and fewer places whilst being subsidised by the English students paying 5x as much for the same course.

    The sad truth is that the opposition both Tory and Labour are not really addressing these issues either. Instead we have election after election dominated by the sterile debate of independence and Scotland's urgent problems remain neglected or an after thought.

    It is of course an irony that the cumulative damage done by this neglect pushes Scotland further and further from being a viable country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    When was the last time the UK had a competent defence minister? The 1950s?
    Its actually got better in some areas - the usual suspects have been told to go do one on their plans to "customise" equipment bought from abroad, on a number of contracts. Such as the sub hunting planes...

    I had a chap I know who works for BAe rants about how, since the F35 aircraft are completely compatible with other nations, he will loose stuff to sell.

    The reason is this - because of the common software/hardware and shared software updates, every time any nation in the program gets a new weapon or piece of equipment cleared to work on the F35B, the UK gets the update automatically. No need for a nice little contract to update things. But it gets worse...

    The US Marine Corps is planning on flying a lot from UK carriers. This means that their weapons will be brought on board.

    Some of which are of interest to the UK, to buy.

    So the weapons will be on board, and the Marine Corps trained instructors on those weapons will be on hand.

    And they will work on the UK aircraft.

    So, if the UK decides to buy one of them, no big integration contract, no big training contract....

    A nightmare for defence contractors.....
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607

    We didn't have debt driven deflation though. We had inflation not deflation and a correction to the unsustainable spending from the disastrous Brown era.

    In real terms there was a correction to wages but that had to happen because of the mess made of the finances by the prior disastrous government spending out of control during the growth period. Keynes famously observed that wages were "sticky downwards" and by having a few years where wages were frozen or growing slower than inflation the economy was able to be restored without a greater catastrophe.
    Agreed; we didn’t have debt-deflation, because the BoE is not insane & nor was the government. But the realignment of the economy that we saw was around low-productivity service jobs, many of which are only viable thanks to government subsidies in the form of in-work benefits. We could have done so much better.

    The government could have invested in training & infrastructure projects, but deliberately chose not to do so at a time when borrowing costs were the lowest they had been in a century. Pension funds everywhere were falling over themselves to lend money to the government at almost any rates offered. Honestly, I still don’t really understand why the government didn’t take the hint, but there it is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    We have control of schools but have had the uncorrected disaster of Curriculum for Excellence resulting in our falling down the Pisa tables because the government is scared of taking on the EIS and making teachers accountable for their results.

    We have control of our police and the total embarrassment of Police Scotland and a police force that seems ever more focused on politics rather than actual crime prevention.

    We have control of our criminal justice system. Its a disgrace, constantly fiddling with new crimes to make political points, trying to tip the playing field in favour of complainers because the rape conviction rate is deemed not high enough and letting psychopaths out of overcrowded prisons because some boxes have been ticked.

    We have control of our University sector. We are now in serious danger of real damage to our leading 3 Universities because of a dishonest system which involved Scottish students getting fewer and fewer places whilst being subsidised by the English students paying 5x as much for the same course.

    The sad truth is that the opposition both Tory and Labour are not really addressing these issues either. Instead we have election after election dominated by the sterile debate of independence and Scotland's urgent problems remain neglected or an after thought.

    It is of course an irony that the cumulative damage done by this neglect pushes Scotland further and further from being a viable country.
    How do you see that ever ending without independence?

    It is part of the reason why I support Scottish independence. To excise that issue from your body politic and give Scottish politicians nowhere to hide.

    Given Scotland will always by definition be a minority of the UK I don't see any other plausible way for that to end now its been stirred.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    Indeed this is exactly why leave won

    They prioritized fantasy over reality.

    We know.

    It's nothing to crow about...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Phil said:

    Agreed; we didn’t have debt-deflation, because the BoE is not insane & nor was the government. But the realignment of the economy that we saw was around low-productivity service jobs, many of which are only viable thanks to government subsidies in the form of in-work benefits. We could have done so much better.

    The government could have invested in training & infrastructure projects, but deliberately chose not to do so at a time when borrowing costs were the lowest they had been in a century. Pension funds everywhere were falling over themselves to lend money to the government at almost any rates offered. Honestly, I still don’t really understand why the government didn’t take the hint, but there it is.
    The government couldn't afford it. We needed to get the deficit under control after years of "investment" from Brown.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    Scott_xP said:

    They prioritized fantasy over reality.

    We know.

    It's nothing to crow about...
    I am not crowing, just find it amusing how utterly obsessed you are with Boris and Cummings
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Spending went up not down?

    Look at Greece etc to see what real austerity is, where spending went down.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited June 2020
    Deleted - not worth the effort
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    just find it amusing how utterly obsessed you are with Boris and Cummings

    Apparently not as obsessed as you are with me
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It is actually becoming very amusing how much Boris and Cummings are exercising the remainers. Indeed this is exactly why leave won
    It's also exactly why they were all so determined to get Cummings a couple of months ago.

    The civil service reform is very the reason he was appointed, Johnson, Gove and Cummings have been planning this for years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    In what respect? If you mean legality, then that's a fair point.

    If you mean in terms of achieving a goal, well that's much harder to do. I think Afghanistan in particular was a waste of time and lives, but it was certainly possible "to do something".
    Afghanistan was clearly justified after 9/11 and we ousted the Taliban and the safe harbour for al'qaeda. Doing nothing after 9/11 was never possible.
  • https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1277532329565720577

    Basically, the left needs to stop talking about culture issues. And shock horror, that is what Starmer is doing
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ask the very poorest whether spending went up or down.
    Why do they have a special form of maths where the numbers are different?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184

    How do you see that ever ending without independence?

    It is part of the reason why I support Scottish independence. To excise that issue from your body politic and give Scottish politicians nowhere to hide.

    Given Scotland will always by definition be a minority of the UK I don't see any other plausible way for that to end now its been stirred.
    I fear we are going to have to go through another referendum with yet more damage to our tax base (so many companies went south in the period before and after 2014) and our economy. When Independence loses again we will hopefully have an administration and opposition that actually wants to pay attention to the knitting.

    The once in a generation referendum resolved nothing ultimately. I suppose you have to be sanguine about a second referendum doing any better but I don't see an alternative.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    Afghanistan was clearly justified after 9/11 and we ousted the Taliban and the safe harbour for al'qaeda. Doing nothing after 9/11 was never possible.
    I was thinking more about what happened after that. It became about fighting the Taliban rather than the terrorists.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1277532329565720577

    Basically, the left needs to stop talking about culture issues. And shock horror, that is what Starmer is doing

    But the left are wholly enthralled with the subject
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    I fear we are going to have to go through another referendum with yet more damage to our tax base (so many companies went south in the period before and after 2014) and our economy. When Independence loses again we will hopefully have an administration and opposition that actually wants to pay attention to the knitting.

    The once in a generation referendum resolved nothing ultimately. I suppose you have to be sanguine about a second referendum doing any better but I don't see an alternative.
    Regretfully your referendum didn't resolve anything because it gave the wrong answer.

    The question of the UK's membership of the EU has been resolved. Its taking years to get through that to the other side, but the question has been answered. Your one hasn't.
  • But the left are wholly enthralled with the subject
    A small minority of the left are obsessed with it. The majority - as you can see by Starmer's support base - are very much not.

    I am not.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    American betting

    Trump is 89% to win the nomination
    Trump is 33.5% to win the Presidency
    GOP is 35.5% to win the Presidency

    My brain is short circuiting to work out what Trump not getting the Nom would mean for the GOP winning party price?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2020

    ttps://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1277532329565720577

    Basically, the left needs to stop talking about culture issues. And shock horror, that is what Starmer is doing

    Starmer has the right approach. What he needs to do now is persuade everyone around him to also stop talking about culture issues.

    Every time some lefty is on the TV screaming about trans rights or aslylum seekers, or how all white people are racist, another handful of votes move to the blue column.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320



    The reason is this - because of the common software/hardware and shared software updates, every time any nation in the program gets a new weapon or piece of equipment cleared to work on the F35B, the UK gets the update automatically. No need for a nice little contract to update things. But it gets worse...

    The UK are forking some of the F-35 software before Block 4 to get UK specific weapons (MDBA Spear and Meteor) integration. It's one of the reasons the program budget has over run 15% from 2017 to 2020. Only a billion and half. Chuck it on the tab.

    It has an eerie echo of the infamous Change Proposal 193 on Block 5 Typhoon to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other Eurofighter partners - who didn't care about that capability at the time. There was no feasible or cost effective upgrade path from the RAF Block 5 back into the main software development effort which is at Block 8 so 53 Typhoons are at developmental dead end. 16 have already been scrapped. Only 300m quid each. Fuck it.

    Punch Line: The Typhoon deployment to Afghanistan never happened anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,482
    Mr. Battery, hard to see Labour going right on culture when their leader's on his knees before an anti-capitalist far left cabal of cretins.
  • Sandpit said:

    Starmer has the right approach. What he needs to do now is persuade everyone around him to also stop talking about culture issues.

    Every time some lefty is on the TV screaming about trans rights or aslylum seekers, another handful of votes move to the blue column.
    Starmer seems to have managed to remove himself from the debate and this is why I think he outpolls Labour quite considerably.

    He obviously can't control the nutters at Novara or whatever else (and I think in time as they start attacking him more than divide will become clear) but he can control his own MPs, particularly backbenchers.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited June 2020

    Mr. Battery, hard to see Labour going right on culture when their leader's on his knees before an anti-capitalist far left cabal of cretins.

    If you read the thread, the solution isn't to go right on culture, it's to stop talking about it and argue on economic grounds instead.

    This is what Blair said in his lecture a few months ago, you can't win a culture war, don't even bother having the arguments.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    DavidL said:

    I fear we are going to have to go through another referendum with yet more damage to our tax base (so many companies went south in the period before and after 2014) and our economy. When Independence loses again we will hopefully have an administration and opposition that actually wants to pay attention to the knitting.

    The once in a generation referendum resolved nothing ultimately. I suppose you have to be sanguine about a second referendum doing any better but I don't see an alternative.
    It has been going on for generations and I hope indy 2 comes along and am confident nothing will change, other than when they lose they will pop up again in due time to fight the battle once more.

    Until the Scots finally vote for parties that look to governing Scotland and not trumpet independence in every First Ministers word or deed it will be ever thus
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    Sandpit said:

    The civil service reform is very the reason he was appointed, Johnson, Gove and Cummings have been planning this for years.

    That's the problem. They have no plan.

    They may have wanted to destroy the civil service for years, but there is no plan for what comes next.

    Destroy the old and hope something emerges from the rubble.

    They tried it at education.

    Epic fuckup
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    You are far too emotionally involved.

    Divorce it from your betting.
    I do that better than most - but of course it is impossible to eliminate completely when you feel as strongly about something as I do about Trump. You couldn't either, don't kid yourself.

    And (as explained before) my "bias" here runs opposite to how you're looking at it. I so hate the prospect of him winning that the innate pessimist in me searches furiously for ways it can happen. In betting terms I am thus a natural Trump backer.

    Despite this, my reading and perception of the situation led me months ago to conclude he was toast for WH2020. I was saying that he would lose - and furthermore it would NOT be close - when he was the odds on fav.

    My view is now becoming the consensus but I hope you followed my posts and advice and are also sitting pretty bettingwise. :smile:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It has been going on for generations and I hope indy 2 comes along and am confident nothing will change, other than when they lose they will pop up again in due time to fight the battle once more.

    Until the Scots finally vote for parties that look to governing Scotland and not trumpet independence in every First Ministers word or deed it will be ever thus
    Or until they vote for independence.

    They either need to vote for independence or for parties that aren't banging on about it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    A small minority of the left are obsessed with it. The majority - as you can see by Starmer's support base - are very much not.

    I am not.
    Reverse your statement and you are accurate
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    kinabalu said:

    You couldn't either, don't kid yourself.
    Yes, I could.

    I have, and I do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184

    Regretfully your referendum didn't resolve anything because it gave the wrong answer.

    The question of the UK's membership of the EU has been resolved. Its taking years to get through that to the other side, but the question has been answered. Your one hasn't.
    If you consider yourself British, as it turned out a majority of Scots did, it gave the right answer but just as with Brexit those on the losing side won't accept the result because they know better.

    Brexit is indicative of what is at stake here. Ultimately the budget of the EU was 1% of EU GDP. That is what we were arguing about, the petty cash. UK public spending is approximately 42% of the Scottish economy. We were in the EU for less than 50 years. We have been in a union with England for more than 300 years. Brexit, and all its aftermath, is going to seem like some minor disagreement in the pub compared with what Scottish independence would entail.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited June 2020

    Reverse your statement and you are accurate
    Provide evidence that the majority of the left are obsessed with it. You can't.

    My evidence is Starmer winning a landslide in the Leadership Election and promising to take the party away from factionalism and culture wars.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    If you read the thread, the solution isn't to go right on culture, it's to stop talking about it and argue on economic grounds instead.

    This is what Blair said in his lecture a few months ago, you can't win a culture war, don't even bother having the arguments.
    You are now a Blairite.

    That is some conversion in only 6 months
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    If you consider yourself British, as it turned out a majority of Scots did, it gave the right answer but just as with Brexit those on the losing side won't accept the result because they know better.

    Brexit is indicative of what is at stake here. Ultimately the budget of the EU was 1% of EU GDP. That is what we were arguing about, the petty cash. UK public spending is approximately 42% of the Scottish economy. We were in the EU for less than 50 years. We have been in a union with England for more than 300 years. Brexit, and all its aftermath, is going to seem like some minor disagreement in the pub compared with what Scottish independence would entail.
    The Scots have given the wrong answer at least once.

    Either they were wrong to vote No, or they were wrong to elect an SNP government.

    They need to collectively either stop voting No, or stop voting SNP.
  • You are now a Blairite.

    That is some conversion in only 6 months
    I'm not a Blairite. Blair is just correct on this issue.
  • It's good to see Big G making silly posts again, definitely brightens up the day
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    Scott_xP said:

    This is undeniably true, and both sets of petty nationalists get really upset when anyone points this out.
    Which is why Brexit is such a terrible idea.

    I know, I know. But I've been pro-European getting together since I was about 18 and while I'm not averse to changing my mind I see no reason to do so on that topic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Scott_xP said:

    That's the problem. They have no plan.

    They may have wanted to destroy the civil service for years, but there is no plan for what comes next.

    Destroy the old and hope something emerges from the rubble.

    They tried it at education.

    Epic fuckup
    The independent PISA rankings disagree with you. As do hundreds of thousands of parents and children that have benefited from free schools over the past decade - many of whom came from the lower socio-economic groups in inner city locations, and have gone on to graduate from top universities.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    A small minority of the left are obsessed with it. The majority - as you can see by Starmer's support base - are very much not.

    I am not.
    Yes. The "culture war" is helping the Right win elections even as the war itself is inevitably (over time) won by the Left.

    Let's wise up and win some elections.
  • The time to make a real mark on Labour is when the EHRC investigation comes out. If RLB is anything to go by, Starmer is going to have a large cleanout.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1277532329565720577

    Basically, the left needs to stop talking about culture issues. And shock horror, that is what Starmer is doing

    The Tories want a culture war. They need ongoing division in order to win. That's what Cummings is all about. However, Starmer will not give them one. The big question is whether he can bring the rest of the Labour party with him. My guess is that most Labour members and MPs will happily back him, but the ones who won't will make a lot of noise.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Sandpit said:

    The independent PISA rankings disagree with you. As do hundreds of thousands of parents and children that have benefited from free schools over the past decade - many of whom came from the lower socio-economic groups in inner city locations, and have gone on to graduate from top universities.
    Yes but we all know that only teachers and the teachers unions matter when it comes to schools, who cares about kids and their parents?!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Provide evidence that the majority of the left are obsessed with it. You can't.

    My evidence is Starmer winning a landslide in the Leadership Election and promising to take the party away from factionalism and culture wars.
    Starmer literally got on his knees before the left-wing culture warriors and tweeted it out! Don't think he's going to be allowed to forget that in a hurry.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    The time to make a real mark on Labour is when the EHRC investigation comes out. If RLB is anything to go by, Starmer is going to have a large cleanout.

    land today apparently, published in a month. expect it to leak
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    The Scots have given the wrong answer at least once.

    Either they were wrong to vote No, or they were wrong to elect an SNP government.

    They need to collectively either stop voting No, or stop voting SNP.
    You maybe do not understand that the SNP attract many who support the union but like their policies ex independence. Indeed I would have voted SNP when I lived in Scotland but at the time labour was the only party on the left

    However, voting for independence would have been a very resolute no for me and many current SNP voters
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    He really does look haunted in this picture. And not well

    https://twitter.com/rufusjones1/status/1277551947025920001
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    You are now a Blairite.

    That is some conversion in only 6 months
    Big G you get absolutely furious when @HYUFD tells you what flavour of political adherent you are.

    And here you are doing it to someone else.

    And not quite remembering it all but did you ever vote for Blair?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Sandpit said:

    The independent PISA rankings disagree with you. As do hundreds of thousands of parents and children that have benefited from free schools over the past decade - many of whom came from the lower socio-economic groups in inner city locations, and have gone on to graduate from top universities.

    The PISA rankings show not much change in the UK, but declines elsewhere, so the UK has moved up in the rankings (although there may be some small gains in Maths). They also find that British schoolchildren are among the unhappiest on the planet.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    The time to make a real mark on Labour is when the EHRC investigation comes out. If RLB is anything to go by, Starmer is going to have a large cleanout.

    And that is where the problem arises.

    It is easy to sack a cabinet minister but retain the whip

    If as expected the ECHR report is scathing and names individual mps Starmer will have no choice but to expel them from the labour party, possibly including some of the better known backbenchers

    If that really does arise it will very definitely be his 'Kinnock' moment which I remember so vividly
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    edited June 2020

    The government couldn't afford it. We needed to get the deficit under control after years of "investment" from Brown.
    The deficit was going to balloon anyway & the markets didn’t care, as demonstrated by the long term bond rates. So the short term expenditure is irrelevant: what matters is that people believe in the future of your economy.

    Ergo, Osborne was right to hold his ground on day-to-day government expenditure, but we would have been in a far better position if he’d spent on infrastructure + training to match.

    The UK unemployment rate from 2009-2013 was 8%, double that before the crisis. That’s millions of people on the dole who could have been doing useful work, or been in training for something worthwhile. Since then the unemployment rate has dropped back to 4-5%, but that’s been driven mostly by women going out to work in low wage service industry jobs. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Osborne’s economic policy, is it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MaxPB said:

    Yes but we all know that only teachers and the teachers unions matter when it comes to schools, who cares about kids and their parents?!

    "Schoolchildren in Britain are more likely to be miserable and less likely to think that their lives have meaning compared with children in other countries, according to an influential OECD survey that shows a slight improvement in the UK’s international education performance."

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/dec/03/british-schoolchildren-among-least-satisfied-with-their-lives-says-oecd-report



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    It is easy to sack a cabinet minister

    Not for BoZo
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    Dura_Ace said:

    The UK are forking some of the F-35 software before Block 4 to get UK specific weapons (MDBA Spear and Meteor) integration. It's one of the reasons the program budget has over run 15% from 2017 to 2020. Only a billion and half. Chuck it on the tab.

    It has an eerie echo of the infamous Change Proposal 193 on Block 5 Typhoon to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other Eurofighter partners - who didn't care about that capability at the time. There was no feasible or cost effective upgrade path from the RAF Block 5 back into the main software development effort which is at Block 8 so 53 Typhoons are at developmental dead end. 16 have already been scrapped. Only 300m quid each. Fuck it.

    Punch Line: The Typhoon deployment to Afghanistan never happened anyway.
    The reason we are paying to integrate Meteor and Spear is that we are first.

    The upside is that because of the common software, others can now buy the weapons and use them easily. Meteor has quite a lot of UK made stuff in it....

    Meteor is serious requirement vs the latest Russian missiles. US stuffed up their long range replacement for AMRAAM too many times....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    TOPPING said:

    Big G you get absolutely furious when @HYUFD tells you what flavour of political adherent you are.

    And here you are doing it to someone else.

    And not quite remembering it all but did you ever vote for Blair?
    Yes - twice
  • And that is where the problem arises.

    It is easy to sack a cabinet minister but retain the whip

    If as expected the ECHR report is scathing and names individual mps Starmer will have no choice but to expel them from the labour party, possibly including some of the better known backbenchers

    If that really does arise it will very definitely be his 'Kinnock' moment which I remember so vividly
    You're showing your one-sidedness again and it's getting boring. Why does Johnson not get the same treatment from you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    Yes, I could.

    I have, and I do.
    lol - ok mister machine.

    Hope you did follow me on Trump anyway. And the GE for that matter. And on no Ref2. And never a No Deal Brexit. And ...

    I am quite spooky (!) sometimes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    And that is where the problem arises.

    It is easy to sack a cabinet minister but retain the whip

    If as expected the ECHR report is scathing and names individual mps Starmer will have no choice but to expel them from the labour party, possibly including some of the better known backbenchers

    If that really does arise it will very definitely be his 'Kinnock' moment which I remember so vividly

    The Tories allow a bloke who has called Africans picanninies with water melon smiles to retain the whip - even when he has also claimed they woud be better off ruled by Europeans. Every party has its racists, but at least Starmer seems intent on taking on the ones Labour is home to.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    You're showing your one-sidedness again and it's getting boring. Why does Johnson not get the same treatment from you?
    Boris is not facing the ECHR report
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,734
    Anyone care to guess ...?
    ...CanSino declined to disclose whether the innoculation of the vaccine candidate is mandatory or optional, citing commercial secrets...

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1277537334632878080
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The PISA rankings show not much change in the UK, but declines elsewhere, so the UK has moved up in the rankings (although there may be some small gains in Maths). They also find that British schoolchildren are among the unhappiest on the planet.

    The UK has moved up in the rankings, driven specifically by a rise in performance in England, as opposed to Scotland and Wales, with the latter now well below the OECD average.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/education/pisa-test-results-2019-rankings-england-education-england-scores-maths-370158
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    Scott_xP said:
    Boris has not compared himself with Roosevelt. Gove made a speech in which he stated that we could learn things from the steps Roosevelt took in 1932, principally the willingness to innovate and experiment, to try different solutions and to try something else if the first idea didn't work. It's a interesting choice of a role model for a Tory government but it fits both the urgency of the situation post Covid and the radicalism of the leadership.

    This tweet is childish nonsense.
  • TOPPING said:

    Big G you get absolutely furious when @HYUFD tells you what flavour of political adherent you are.

    And here you are doing it to someone else.

    And not quite remembering it all but did you ever vote for Blair?
    It's fine, he's gone off the rails again and is back to being a Tory bot
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Scott_xP said:

    He really does look haunted in this picture. And not well

    https://twitter.com/rufusjones1/status/1277551947025920001

    He's piled all his pre-Rona flab back on and now has the posture of Monty Burns with a "mighty hump".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    The Tories want a culture war. They need ongoing division in order to win. That's what Cummings is all about. However, Starmer will not give them one. The big question is whether he can bring the rest of the Labour party with him. My guess is that most Labour members and MPs will happily back him, but the ones who won't will make a lot of noise.

    If the Tories wanted a culture war, why is the *response* to the various culture issues of the day - trans, BLM etc so moderate, and polite?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You maybe do not understand that the SNP attract many who support the union but like their policies ex independence. Indeed I would have voted SNP when I lived in Scotland but at the time labour was the only party on the left

    However, voting for independence would have been a very resolute no for me and many current SNP voters
    I understand that but it is what keeps this issue alive.

    In a representative democracy it is not sufficient to simply win a referendum and that is it. It is necessary to both win a referendum and elect a government and a Parliament that respects the referendum.

    Scotland post-2014 and the UK from 2017 failed in this respect. In Scotland the referendum result, Holyrood and the government do not align. They do not respect each others results.

    In the UK from 2017 to 2019 we had the same problem. The House of Commons did not reflect the referendum result and MPs like Grieve went out of their way to try and reverse it. It is only by changing the composition of the Commons in December 2019 that now the Commons reflects the will of the voter in the referendum and we can start to move on.

    Scotland needs to decide what it wants. To use a vulgar expression it needs to "crap or get off the pot". Then it needs its government, referendum result and Holyrood to be aligned on respecting the result.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    The Tories allow a bloke who has called Africans picanninies with water melon smiles to retain the whip - even when he has also claimed they woud be better off ruled by Europeans. Every party has its racists, but at least Starmer seems intent on taking on the ones Labour is home to.

    The conservatives are not facing an ECHR report
  • NevaNeva Posts: 14
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, there’s some careful reading of market rules and payout dates required for the US markets. Betfair’s nomination market pays out at the conventions for example, and the confusingly named Next President market pays out on Inauguration Day 2021, even if the incumbent is re-elected - in contrast with their Next UK PM market, which runs through elections and might be open for a decade or more. The election result isn’t finally confirmed until the electoral college meets, which is several weeks after the election itself, some states (waves at California) take weeks to finalise the result, even if they vote overwhelmingly one way. We could end up in court of course, as last happened in 2000, delaying the result still further. It’s a minefield, especially when one considers the context of two old and possibly sick men running. The person nominated may not be the person on the ballot papers, the person elected might not be inaugurated etc.
    You have misread Betfair's rules for their "Next President" market. If one candidate wins a majority of "projected" Electoral College votes, they will pay out on that candidate. Unless litigation of a "hanging chads" or other type makes it unclear who is "projected" to make it to 270, that means they will pay out on 4 November.

    All they do is look at every state and assign all of the EC votes in that state to the winner in that state, except in Maine and Nebraska where it's not "winner takes all". How the members of the electoral college actually vote (seven were "faithless" in 2016) is irrelevant; so is who gets inaugurated. (This isn't to say they have got all bases covered - for example, I am not sure what they will do if a candidate dies before their name can be removed from the ballot papers and then proceeds to win.)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    A pile on on le God. They're saying his family enjoyed the Nazi occupation in Guernsey because he felt uncomfortable being forced to parade in the badge of the extreme left



  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    You're showing your one-sidedness again and it's getting boring. Why does Johnson not get the same treatment from you?
    Come on do you expect any of the blue team to be even handed? I’m sure if the red team were in the ascendancy they would show the same arrogance. The desire to conserve their own specific circumstances over rides everything else regardless of which side you are on.
  • Boris is not facing the ECHR report
    No but he should be facing a report into Islamophobia, whatever happened to that?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    The conservatives are not facing an ECHR report

    Does that make having racist MPs OK then?

This discussion has been closed.