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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Someone is trying to persuade me that Trump is ill and might n
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Someone is trying to persuade me that Trump is ill and might not stand in November
Yesterday I received an email from someone I have never been in contact with before or have any familiarity with which suggested that something might be happening in American politics less than 5 months before the presidential election. This is what it said:
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Think all this talk of replacing Trumpsky is BS. Might try to do it AFTER Election Day, but doubt even Bobblehead (aka Mike Pence) is dumb enough to give him a pardon - look how great THAT worked out for Jerry Ford.
Sound like wishful thinking by GOP hacks trying to avoid the tidal wave bearing down upon them: the slaughter of the guilty & dipshits.
As for his health, my faith tells me God(ess) will wait until AFTER Election Day before shoving his troubled soul down the Trump Tower garbage shute and straight to the basement incinerator - should hold a raffle to see who gets to light the match . . .
You have to watch the wording is these because it's now less than 2 months to the conventions, but more than 4 months to the election, and they're both more likely to take risks with their health as the election approaches. Assuming they'll both want to run if they're still breathing, that makes them both more likely to drop out after their formal nomination than before.
Sadly for Trumpsky (but not humanity) doesn't appear to be any Atlanta out there this year. Though it IS possible that he MIGHT lose Georgia while whistling Dixie.
Which will tend to keep Joe physically six-plus feet away from everyone except Jill. And aside from his tendency to misspeak, etc, well he's been doing that since he was sworn in as US Senator at the age of 30.
Re: Bobblehead, only thing he's got going for him, is he's not quite as reprehensible or ignorant as his boss, but that is a VERY low bar. Kine of like having a pile of goat droppings next to a steaming pigpoop. In final analysis, they're BOTH a pile of shit.
This ain't like 1924, when Calvin Coolidge gave GOP a 2nd term in office after the demise of Warren Harding and the Teapot Dome scandal. Semi-Maked Mike ain't this millenium's answer to Silent Cal. Mainly because in 1924 the US was NOT gripped by pandemic & recession.
All that being said:
- Trump doesn't like losing
- Trump might need to be pardoned, which requires his successor is someone extremely loyal
And he might well be ill. Certainly some of the recent videos, of him struggling to raise a glass to his mouth, of him needing help walking, etc., are suggesting of health problems.
One in ten for not being nominee... seems a little skinny, mind.
To retain his majority, Boris Johnson is going to have to wage that 'war on woke'
BY TIM BALE"
https://unherd.com/2020/06/how-out-of-touch-is-the-tory-party/
Whatever happens this November, Pence will be VP until noon on January 20, 2021. Most likely DT resignation scenario would be AFTER he loses on November 3, 2020. IF yours truly was Bobblehead, reckon I'd be sorely tempted to PROMISE to pardon, then after Trumpsky forsakes office . . . then forget about it.
That way, they'd BOTH go down in history . . . and The Donald goes down the river to Club Fed . . . or maybe up the river to Sing Sing.
Would be poetic justice for a serial, congenital liar & betrayer. However, doubt that any resignation is in the cards.
Anyone remember all of those rumours supposedly hot in Westminster that Corbyn would be stepping down due to ill-health? Turned out to be a bunch of wishful thinking by MPs and staffers who wanted him gone.
Yes, age is a risk but I would prefer calculating the actuarial risk.
The pardon by Pence question is interesting and may have consequences for the 'year Trump will leave' betting market. Giving Nixon a pardon didn't work out well for Gerald Ford indeed, whose general election loss is widely blamed on that including by Ford himself, but on the other hand Pence may think he can't win a primary with the Trumpian base if he doesn't award a pardon.
The good book says that a dog licks it's own vomit. The Book of Bannon tells "Piccaninny" Johnson to start gobbling a dirty dog's recycled dinner.
Since PM & co are have taken such an interest in public statuary, perhaps they could buy & ship over some surplus ones from US cut-rate. Maybe give Lord Nelson a rest and replace him with Robert E. Lee?
After all Marse Robert was MIGHTY popular with the ruling class in jolly old England in early 1860s.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1277431695248183298?s=20
Although what the NYT Books review has done to deserve his ire....
https://twitter.com/JksKathryn/status/1276611286193897473?s=20
I'm sceptical because Corbyn never did despite that but Trump does look defeated recently; I think he knows he is going to lose because the other day he Freudian slipped, saying that Biden was going to be president. Trump is more in it for himself compared to an ideologue like Corbyn who wanted the hard left to control the party so if he thinks he can't win he may throw it in.
Biden’s 1.04 to be nominated, and Trump is as long as 1.12 to be nominated. I think I should be laying both, for small stakes. If a week is a long time in politics, the next four months are going to be very long indeed. The campaigns are going to be very personal and very negative.
Biden is 1.04 against, which is about the same as a clear leader in a horserace approaching the final hurdle. Of course, if Biden does drop out before the convention, that might well change the VP nominee market!
https://medium.com/@dojalumni/statement-by-former-federal-prosecutors-8ab7691c2aa1
This seems to be a pattern of behaviour - also see the attempt to fire the SDNY prosecutor - and these are cases that are already largely being investigated and other suspects charged. The prosecutors are probably not happy about their investigations being obstructed, so you'd think they'd bring the charges unless the new administration tried to stop them.
Also the crimes in question are the domestic *obstruction* cases, not the original attempted deal with Ukraine.
I don't know whether it would happen or not but if I was Trump, it's certainly something I'd be worried about.
Unless you’re suggesting Biden pardons him ?
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1277328501893468163
Admittedly I almost never use public transport so I’m missing that environment, but I do work in a busy office and visit libraries, shops, hospital, tourist attractions and other public spaces, and I see a mask-wearer maybe once a week. Still taken aback every time I see one.
And there is, of course, also the prospect of cases brought by state prosecutors, over which the Justice Department has no jurisdiction at all.
Here in the UAE, masks are compulsory to wear in public, even outside and in cars, with large fines (£600) for non-compliance. Supermarkets also make you wear gloves, shops and malls have temperature scanners at entrances.
As expected, and at the other extreme, it’s almost impossible to persuade Americans to do anything, with large groups arguing against them as a point of principle, but most other countries are somewhere in the middle.
If you are prepared to use this as betting advice then I nkow a Prinse in Nogeria with a milion dollar to hide
Face masks are clearly helpful for preventing the spread of this respiratory borne illness, both for those who have the virus and those who don't wish to catch it.
There will always be nay'sayers. There are some who think the moon landings never happened and that if you sail out beyond California you fall off the edge of the earth.
Spreading such nonsense in this case kills people.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8468601/Governor-Newsom-closes-bars-LA-six-California-counties.html
USA really struggling to get people to behave, as predicted months ago. Same with India and Brazil, where high population density and poor sanitation combine to make huge infection numbers sadly inevitable.
I laid Trump for the nomination at 1.07 on Betfair. There's backing now at 1.11, so I'm wondering about hedging to go green or evens if it's him. The agony of choice.
Not sure it'll get much longer (unless he actually drops out/is axed).
Unless there’s something I’m missing, isn’t it just Russia being shitty again?
But I certainly agree with OGH that I despise (I'd use that word rather than hate) Trump so much that it's hard to be objective.
a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in
That's a... ummm.... pretty broad pardon.
Wearing a mask protects other people not you. If everyone wears a mask everyone is safer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiBsrHTybYM
Obviously the second part of that, and thus the pardon part, depends on the favoured successor winning the election...
Which is why I think Pence remains the likeliest successor. He's been incredibly loyal, and Trump values loyalty.
And Good Morning to all.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/06/28/politics/lincoln-project-trump-coronavirus-deaths-greatest-generation/index.html
So if Trump wants a pardon, he's going to want a backup plan. Which to me would be Pence becomes President but Trump will keep control of the nomination until the pardon has been delivered.
760 million over the next academic year
I don’t know about the second of these points, but I don’t think the scientific view of the first has changed particularly. However the essential argument put forward for masks wearing is to prevent spread to others - and importantly this can be achieved with pretty much any type of basic face covering regardless of design or quality (provided of course it isn’t made of a material that irritates and actively triggers coughing and sneezing!). Which shouldn’t be dismissed - wearing face covering in my experience can create dryness of mouths/throats etc)
If anything Phil's post was encouraging mask wearing and what he said - that wearing a mask is primarily to prevent transmission from you to someone else - is exactly what the experts have been saying for weeks and why they (quite rightly) want us all to wear them. What was 'nonsense' about his post that it should be banned?
Fact check - govt do fund schools capital already.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jun/28/johnson-pledges-1bn-over-10-years-for-school-rebuilding-in-england
I nominate 'quilling' as the word of the day, and intend too find uses for it.
However, it is essentially reintroducing the Schools for the Future programme that they cut in 2010, so with inflation they’re going to need to commit to many billions per year to be back where we were 10 years ago. Let’s hope they do.
https://twitter.com/bethanstaton/status/1277508147394031617
They'd know if he wasn't where he was supposed to be.
It is a good article btw.
I had previously tried desktop mode without success. Tried again. Failed with Firefox but worked with Chrome.
So thank you. Surprising how often I couldn't work out the first word with only 1 character being stripped off.
Here’s a recent review paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274
Royal Society Delve group report: https://royalsociety.org/news/2020/05/delve-group-publishes-evidence-paper-on-use-of-face-masks/
The available evidence suggests that masks are of little to maybe limited benefit at protecting you, but pretty good at protecting others if you’re infected. Everyone should wear them when in public in order to protect the community from asymptomatic infection.