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System Posts: 12,578
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Checking the Political Weather in Wales

In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George).

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT
    Smarmeron said:

    As an aside TSE, Where does halal/kosher stand on wild boar?

    Banned by the Moderators, I believe.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    One finding from the Welsh polls is that UKIP gets support from a lot of Plaid Voters in the EU Parliament vote. I find it odd that UKIP doesn't appear to get the same cross-over from SNP voters.

    Surely if you're opposed to rule from London, you should also be opposed to rule from Brussels? But Plaid Cymru, and SNP are both pro-EU parties.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    If Labour come in at 29% and the others poll as indicated that would be 1 seat each for all 4 of the main parties there, just like the last time?

    Seems a pretty likely outcome to me. Are there local elections in Wales tomorrow that might make Labour supporters turn out?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DavidL said:

    If Labour come in at 29% and the others poll as indicated that would be 1 seat each for all 4 of the main parties there, just like the last time?

    Seems a pretty likely outcome to me. Are there local elections in Wales tomorrow that might make Labour supporters turn out?

    No local elections in Wales or Scotland.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Any particular reason why Plaid Cymru are down in the polls?

    I'm sure it would be a tough knock for them not to have an MEP elected - they've had at least one since PR was introduced in 1999.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited May 2014
    For those of us who have fought more low-turnout local elections than we care to remember, there's something entertaining about the idea that they will produce a surge of interest in the Euros enough to distort the result. I'd expect only people interested in politics or keen to protest to vote, regardless of whether there's a local election or not.

    I'm in a split ward in ultra-politicised London. I've had one letter from a LibDem and one leaflet from Labour. In the Euros, I've had two UKIP leaflets and one Tory. If that's a feverish level of activity, what can it be like in deepest Sufoolk?
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/11226014.EXCLUSIVE__Senior_East_Lancs_politician_suspended_after_election_fraud_accusation/

    A SENIOR Labour politician has been suspended by her party during a police investigation after her father accused her of election fraud.

    Clare Pritchard, deputy leader of Hyndburn Council, faces her dad and UKIP candidate Malcolm in a head-to-head contest for Milnshaw ward in Accrington in the local polls tomorrow.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    anotherDave said:

    One finding from the Welsh polls is that UKIP gets support from a lot of Plaid Voters in the EU Parliament vote. I find it odd that UKIP doesn't appear to get the same cross-over from SNP voters.

    Surely if you're opposed to rule from London, you should also be opposed to rule from Brussels? But Plaid Cymru, and SNP are both pro-EU parties.

    I imagine it's because the SNP crowd have aspirations for independence in a way that PC voters don't. They thus feel that being an EU member gives them a safety blanket of not having quite full independence and want to remain on good terms. Despite the views of the party itself, Plaid Cymru supporters know that they're not going to leave the UK, so getting rid of the EU does at least remove one layer of interference.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    How is UKIP doing in terms of local organization in Wales? That could potentially be a factor which might hold them back compared with some other regions.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AveryLP

    Or bored by the moderators?
    No offense to the moderators, as I realise it is a difficult job......but it does seem a little arcane at times.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    NickPalmer said:

    If that's a feverish level of activity, what can it be like in deepest Sufoolk?

    Here in deepest Labour-free Sussex, we have had Euro leaflets from all the main parties except, oddly, the LibDems (unless I missed it).
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    meanwhile on the other sides of the Severn....Prof Rawlings talks to ITV News on local elections. http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-05-21/itvs-political-analyst-on-upcoming-elections/
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    How is UKIP doing in terms of local organization in Wales? That could potentially be a factor which might hold them back compared with some other regions.

    "Tory describes Wales as a 'region' shock"
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    corporeal said:



    Clare Pritchard, deputy leader of Hyndburn Council, faces her dad and UKIP candidate Malcolm in a head-to-head contest for Milnshaw ward in Accrington in the local polls tomorrow.


    "UKIP North-West press officer Lynda Roughley said:....“

    I may be the only person who read that and was immediately transported back to the mid 80's and the glorious Ted Chippington - "half a mile - roughly speaking...."
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Will PC get a euro seat in Wales?
    Will Cons get a euro seat in Wales?

    Would have been more interesting markets than the ones Ladbrokes have done with Scotland
  • MaxU
    MaxU Posts: 87
    On Topic

    Thanks very much, very interesting. However the Westminster changes given above appear to differ somewhat from the learned Professor Scully says on his blog, any reason for the difference?
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    MaxU said:

    On Topic

    Thanks very much, very interesting. However the Westminster changes given above appear to differ somewhat from the learned Professor Scully says on his blog, any reason for the difference?

    Hmm, bear with me.

    I ripped that particular set of projections from Walesonline, I have to humbly admit I hadn't notice they differed.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Just dipped my toe in the euro betting jungle for the final time
    topped up on labour to win east Midlands at 11/4
    topped up on UKIP to win Yorkshire at 2/1
    guessed turnout to be between 35 and 39% at 13/8
    topped up on 'an independence from europe' getting more than 1.5% 5/6
    backed lib dems to get 3 or more euro seats at 11/10

    Exhausted!!
  • MaxU
    MaxU Posts: 87
    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Actually I think that's a very good way of pointing out the potential for vote-rigging inherent in British elections. One of the best leaflets I have seen so far this election (and I'm not a UKIP supporter).

    The dodgy bit is the reference to "white folks"- without that I would have no qualms about it whatsoever.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    state_go_away said:

    Will PC get a euro seat in Wales?
    Will Cons get a euro seat in Wales?

    Would have been more interesting markets than the ones Ladbrokes have done with Scotland

    The Conservatives missing the fourth seat might be the most interesting result.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
  • MaxU
    MaxU Posts: 87
    corporeal said:

    MaxU said:

    On Topic

    Thanks very much, very interesting. However the Westminster changes given above appear to differ somewhat from the learned Professor Scully says on his blog, any reason for the difference?

    Hmm, bear with me.

    I ripped that particular set of projections from Walesonline, I have to humbly admit I hadn't notice they differed.
    Scully appears to have given one more seat to the Lib-Dems and one less to the Cons. Possibly Brecon & Radnor?

  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    MaxU said:

    corporeal said:

    MaxU said:

    On Topic

    Thanks very much, very interesting. However the Westminster changes given above appear to differ somewhat from the learned Professor Scully says on his blog, any reason for the difference?

    Hmm, bear with me.

    I ripped that particular set of projections from Walesonline, I have to humbly admit I hadn't notice they differed.
    Scully appears to have given one more seat to the Lib-Dems and one less to the Cons. Possibly Brecon & Radnor?

    Probably, although beyond the projections I think there's a chance Montgomeryshire could buck the trend and go back Liberal.
  • MaxU
    MaxU Posts: 87
    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    Crikey- maybe its not such a good leaflet after all then- if you can not discern irony then what hope is there for the voters of Oldham? I have no doubt that its genuine and meant as an attack on UKIP's opponents- which they allege are vote-rigging.

    As I said I happen to think it is very effective in pointing out the myriad ways in which the current system can be gamed.

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Ah Wales.

    You would think with its basket case economy, public services meltdown and red prince stitch up, that there would be more antipathy to labour in Wales than there is.

    UKIP under estimated?
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MaxU said:

    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    Crikey- maybe its not such a good leaflet after all then- if you can not discern irony then what hope is there for the voters of Oldham? I have no doubt that its genuine and meant as an attack on UKIP's opponents- which they allege are vote-rigging.

    As I said I happen to think it is very effective in pointing out the myriad ways in which the current system can be gamed.

    The url on the leaflet is 'www.chronic-oldham.co.uk'. Visiting the website you see the message:

    "Chronic-Oldham has no connection with UKIP, Joe Fitzpatrick or any other political party!"

    http://www.chronic-oldham.co.uk
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    MaxU said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Actually I think that's a very good way of pointing out the potential for vote-rigging inherent in British elections. One of the best leaflets I have seen so far this election (and I'm not a UKIP supporter).

    The dodgy bit is the reference to "white folks"- without that I would have no qualms about it whatsoever.
    Agreed. The white folk bit overstepped a line. Everything else seems fine.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    So Farage ran away from non-Romanians?
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Another light=hearted piece from the Telegraph, this time from Ian Martin,

    "The monstering of Ed Miliband in the next year is going to be deeply unpleasant"

    Given the way Labour have behaved over the past 20 years or so, I shall laugh myself sick if his predictions turn out to be accurate. Couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow as the leader of the most deserving party.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100272406/the-monstering-of-ed-miliband-in-the-next-year-is-going-to-be-deeply-unpleasant/

  • MaxU
    MaxU Posts: 87
    anotherDave said:

    MaxU said:

    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    Crikey- maybe its not such a good leaflet after all then- if you can not discern irony then what hope is there for the voters of Oldham? I have no doubt that its genuine and meant as an attack on UKIP's opponents- which they allege are vote-rigging.

    As I said I happen to think it is very effective in pointing out the myriad ways in which the current system can be gamed.

    The url on the leaflet is 'www.chronic-oldham.co.uk'. Visiting the website you see the message:

    "Chronic-Oldham has no connection with UKIP, Joe Fitzpatrick or any other political party!"

    http://www.chronic-oldham.co.uk
    My apologies- although if you look further down the websdite you can see that it has very little sympathy with the Oldham labour party!

    I do not think that it was meant as Black propaganda against UKIP whether or not it is actually connected to the party.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    The main question from this leaflet is: is there actually abuse of postal votes in Oldham, as there has been in Tower Hamlets and other boroughs? If that's true, then the critics don't really have a case.
  • Next
    Next Posts: 826
    edited May 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    So Farage ran away from non-Romanians?
    No, I thought it was when he found out he couldn't claim the Steel Band on expenses...
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    taffys said:

    Ah Wales.

    You would think with its basket case economy, public services meltdown and red prince stitch up, that there would be more antipathy to labour in Wales than there is.

    UKIP under estimated?

    No, just large chunks of the population on the down escalator as far a evolution is concerned.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @HurstLlama

    You may laugh yourself sick, but constant smearing can lead to some odd results with people who hold less partisan views.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    You may laugh yourself sick, but constant smearing can lead to some odd results with people who hold less partisan views.

    Oh, give over, Comrade. Labour have proved themselves the masters of the spin, the smear and the change of language meaning to change the debate in my lifetime. If their leader is going to get some back, I don't think he or his party have grounds to complain.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    anotherDave said:

    MaxU said:

    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    Crikey- maybe its not such a good leaflet after all then- if you can not discern irony then what hope is there for the voters of Oldham? I have no doubt that its genuine and meant as an attack on UKIP's opponents- which they allege are vote-rigging.

    As I said I happen to think it is very effective in pointing out the myriad ways in which the current system can be gamed.

    The url on the leaflet is 'www.chronic-oldham.co.uk'. Visiting the website you see the message:

    "Chronic-Oldham has no connection with UKIP, Joe Fitzpatrick or any other political party!"

    http://www.chronic-oldham.co.uk

    Chronic oldham better be registered with the electoral commission then or they'll be severely in the brown stuff.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    As a legal eagle, I will comment on the Court of Appeal decision on fraud trials.

    What this means is that the trial will be relisted for hearing, most probably in 2015. Before then, further efforts will need to be made to find barristers of suitable experience to represent the defendants. If they cannot find them from the public Bar, they will need to see whether there are any in the Public Defender Service. The government accepted that there weren't such barristers available at the moment but hoped that they would be able to employ some.

    Those of us who have had to deal with the quality of people employed by the Crown Prosecution Service will have their head in their hands at this point. If I were on trial for a serious crime I would be deeply depressed at the thought of entrusting my liberty to the sorts of people who end up working in such services.

    However, Leveson J also left it open for the defendants to argue again that they still have not been able to find barristers and ask for the trial to be halted. So unless experienced fraud QCs are prepared to take a 30% pay cut or work for the Public Defender Service in a few months time we will be back where we were.

    In one case I'm personally aware of, the investigation was started in 2008, people have been arrested and charged and there is still no trial date. If anyone thinks that taking the best part of a decade to get a fraud case to court is sensible then they're on something.

    This government's approach to the costs of justice is "penny wise, pound foolish".

    It may not be a popular cause but a proper justice system is a mark of a civilised society.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    You may laugh yourself sick, but constant smearing can lead to some odd results with people who hold less partisan views.

    Alistair Campbell.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @SeanT

    "We are going collectively insane"
    I would argue we went collectively insane a long time ago.
    The assumption that money and possessions can buy you happiness being one.
    It can of course buy you temporary relief, but like recreational drugs it is only temporary, and the dose needs to be increased for an equivalent effect, leading to addiction where it becomes the main driver of your life.
    How were the Bangkok hookers?
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    RE: buttiegate.

    My favourite is fried egg and sausage. I'm fairly sure this is now illegal.

    When I was on steroids I used to add fried egg to my microwave burgers. Not sure if this has ever been acceptable.
  • shadsy
    shadsy Posts: 289
    Brief update from the coal face:
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/local-and-european-elections-betting-update/
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Cyclefree said:

    As a legal eagle, I will comment on the Court of Appeal decision on fraud trials.

    What this means is that the trial will be relisted for hearing, most probably in 2015. Before then, further efforts will need to be made to find barristers of suitable experience to represent the defendants. If they cannot find them from the public Bar, they will need to see whether there are any in the Public Defender Service. The government accepted that there weren't such barristers available at the moment but hoped that they would be able to employ some.

    Those of us who have had to deal with the quality of people employed by the Crown Prosecution Service will have their head in their hands at this point. If I were on trial for a serious crime I would be deeply depressed at the thought of entrusting my liberty to the sorts of people who end up working in such services.

    However, Leveson J also left it open for the defendants to argue again that they still have not been able to find barristers and ask for the trial to be halted. So unless experienced fraud QCs are prepared to take a 30% pay cut or work for the Public Defender Service in a few months time we will be back where we were.

    In one case I'm personally aware of, the investigation was started in 2008, people have been arrested and charged and there is still no trial date. If anyone thinks that taking the best part of a decade to get a fraud case to court is sensible then they're on something.

    This government's approach to the costs of justice is "penny wise, pound foolish".

    It may not be a popular cause but a proper justice system is a mark of a civilised society.

    If lawyers weren't so disagreeable and greedy there might be some sympathy for them. To a large majority of the public the idea of QCs being forced to take 30% pay cuts is a great one.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.

    I suspect the site is telling porkies. The leaflet refers to "our deputy leader Paul Nuttall"

    If she's seen the emails between agent and commission then surely said emails must be acknowledging responsibility.

    Off the top of my head unless Chronic Oldham is affiliated with UKIP (and have a proper imprint somewhere), or registered with the electoral commission themselves then they're breaking the law.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    It may not be a popular cause but a proper justice system is a mark of a civilised society.

    As always with the legal profession the default position is Nothing Is Ever Our Fault.

    Where were the clarion calls when legal aid was being raided for millions for foreigners who have never set foot in Britain to sue the British army on completely spurious grounds?

    Where was the criticism when certain barristers and judges used human rights law to effectively act as a (rather wll paid) fifth column against government policy?

    Grayling is doing what he is doing because he can. And in some respects the bar and the solicitors had it coming.

    What I get from the legal profession is a complete refusal to in any way whatsoever criticise or reform their attitudes and practices. They are completely right.

    It is a childish, amateurish and nonsensical position.

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MaxPB

    The thought of almost anyone taking a pay cut is popular.....as long as it isn't themselves.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm not sure what I'm more agog at, the apparent attempt by UKIP to make the white folks angry in Oldham, or Oldham Labour's outrage at this.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''To a large majority of the public the idea of QCs being forced to take 30% pay cuts is a great one.''

    Especially as some of the best paid and high profile barristers in the land (they know who they are), have a towering contempt for British institutions and the governments they are so often set against.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205

    "Labour Party donor and and stalwart of the Labour's 'Finance and Industry Group' (LFIG) Ian Wallace has today announced that he is joining UKIP after becoming disillusioned by the direction the Labour Party has taken. Mr Wallace has called on Labour members to join UKIP alongside him, to vote for them in tomorrow's European and local elections, and indeed give them support in the 2015 general election"


    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/21/Labour-stalwart-defects-to-ukip
  • JBriskin
    JBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [The thought of almost anyone taking a pay cut is popular.....as long as it isn't themselves.]

    I don't think this is true. I don't have the figures but I would have thought the majority of people earn less than 100K. I don't think anyone really thinks anyone on less than 100K should have a pay cut.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.

    I suspect the site is telling porkies. The leaflet refers to "our deputy leader Paul Nuttall"

    If she's seen the emails between agent and commission then surely said emails must be acknowledging responsibility.

    Off the top of my head unless Chronic Oldham is affiliated with UKIP (and have a proper imprint somewhere), or registered with the electoral commission themselves then they're breaking the law.
    So I could go and produce a similar leaflet that said vote Conservative or Labour and those parties would be in trouble for it? Surely the crime lies with the people producing the leaflet not the party they purport to represent.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    The thought of almost anyone taking a pay cut is popular.....as long as it isn't themselves.

    Complete rubbish
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    Cyclefree said:

    This government's approach to the costs of justice is "penny wise, pound foolish".

    It may not be a popular cause but a proper justice system is a mark of a civilised society.

    There are some fair criticisms of HHJ Leonard QC's reasons, in particular in relation to the conflation of the abuse tests. It was wrong to view the abuse as akin to ex parte Bennett or Mullen. That said, one is left with a nagging question after reading a judgment which was evidently prepared at breakneck speed: is there any realistic prospect, as opposed to a vague possibility, that a fair trial could occur in the future? The Court of Appeal held that Leonard's factual conclusions were unreasonable, but it will be very damaging for the government and the Court if come January 2015, there are still no suitably qualified advocates prepared to accept instructions. Perhaps the court would have been better advised to have a hurried a bit slower...
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys

    Care to expand on "complete rubbish"?
    Or will we descend into a trade of ever more inane insults?
    ( I am relaxed about either)
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.

    I suspect the site is telling porkies. The leaflet refers to "our deputy leader Paul Nuttall"

    If she's seen the emails between agent and commission then surely said emails must be acknowledging responsibility.

    Off the top of my head unless Chronic Oldham is affiliated with UKIP (and have a proper imprint somewhere), or registered with the electoral commission themselves then they're breaking the law.
    So I could go and produce a similar leaflet that said vote Conservative or Labour and those parties would be in trouble for it? Surely the crime lies with the people producing the leaflet not the party they purport to represent.
    There are two scenarios here.

    1. Chronic Oldham is unaffiliated with UKIP.
    1. (a) They're breaking the law (as I understand the law, which isn't perfect I grant you).
    1. (b) Why are they referring to Paul Nuttall as "our Deputy Leader"
    1. (c) JenWilliams says she's seen the emails with agent and Electoral Commission. So if they aren't UKIP surely the agent denies responsibility and she wouldn't be calling them UKIP leaflets.

    2. Chronic Oldham is affiliated with UKIP.
    2 (a) There should be an imprint somewhere on the leaflet (can't see both sides etc). If there isn't they're breaking the law (as I understand the law, which isn't perfect I grant you).
    2 (b) Chronic Oldham is telling lies on its own website.
    2 (c) The leaflet would effectively be from UKIP.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/ukip-candidate-bobby-anwar-stabbed-in-the-face-in-attack-9410465.html

    So, not a made up story then.

    Do I see apolgies from the many PB doubters on here, when the story first broke by Guido?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.
    The Manchester Evening News are reporting that Joe Fitzpatrick has defended the leaflet (and state as a fact that he distributed it):

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-launch-race-row-probe-7151633

    "The leaflet was distributed by Joe Fitzpatrick, a former Labour councillor and one-time agent to shamed ex-MP Phil Woolas, but now a UKIP candidate and agent.

    Mr Fitzpatrick has defended the pamphlet, insisting it reflects genuine concerns about electoral fraud in the borough - including deals in which candidates 'swap' postal votes across boundaries."

    "in an email to the Electoral Commission, Mr Fitzpatrick defended the stance taken on his latest pamphlet.

    He says the commission's observers should come down to Friday's count to observe the 'blatant abuse' taking place by certain candidates, whom he identifies.

    In response the commission said any such concerns about fraud should be passed to police as soon as possible."

    They seem sure of their ground.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a legal eagle, I will comment on the Court of Appeal decision on fraud trials.

    What this means is that the trial will be relisted for hearing, most probably in 2015. Before then, further efforts will need to be made to find barristers of suitable experience to represent the defendants. If they cannot find them from the public Bar, they will need to see whether there are any in the Public Defender Service. The government accepted that there weren't such barristers available at the moment but hoped that they would be able to employ some.

    Those of us who have had to deal with the quality of people employed by the Crown Prosecution Service will have their head in their hands at this point. If I were on trial for a serious crime I would be deeply depressed at the thought of entrusting my liberty to the sorts of people who end up working in such services.

    However, Leveson J also left it open for the defendants to argue again that they still have not been able to find barristers and ask for the trial to be halted. So unless experienced fraud QCs are prepared to take a 30% pay cut or work for the Public Defender Service in a few months time we will be back where we were.

    In one case I'm personally aware of, the investigation was started in 2008, people have been arrested and charged and there is still no trial date. If anyone thinks that taking the best part of a decade to get a fraud case to court is sensible then they're on something.

    This government's approach to the costs of justice is "penny wise, pound foolish".

    It may not be a popular cause but a proper justice system is a mark of a civilised society.

    If lawyers weren't so disagreeable and greedy there might be some sympathy for them. To a large majority of the public the idea of QCs being forced to take 30% pay cuts is a great one.
    It isn't about sympathy for lawyers. It's about sympathy for defendants - anyone of us - charged with an offence who are denied justice because the government will not pay for a proper justice system.

    Look at poor black men in the US, on trial for capital crimes and often forced to take court appointed lawyers who are no good, take no interest in the case and do sloppy work. They face years in prison and only later is it realised that there has been a miscarriage of justice. Why should we want to emulate that system here?

    I have no dog in this fight. But as someone involved in catching fraudsters it is very depressing to see that our ability to do so and send a clear message to others that this is wrong is being compromised by a ludicrous cheese-paring approach which will not save costs. Where people have incompetent lawyers trials last longer so there is no saving.

    I can't think of any group of people paid out of the public purse who have faced a 30% pay cut. Perhaps you or others could name some.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Oldham Returning Officer has reported a UKIP leaflet to the police
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    The Harrogate branch of the kippers have invited twitter users to explain why they will be voting UKIP on Thursday.

    Twenty one thousand tweets have been sent to date.

    This is my favourite:

    Felicity Morse @FelicityMorse

    #WhyImVotingUkip David Cameron didn't wish me happy birthday

    "Top 21 reasons" here: http://bzfd.it/1lPkuo8

    Thats an excellent reason. Shame on Cammo, he should at least sent a pasty.
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    The Harrogate branch of the kippers have invited twitter users to explain why they will be voting UKIP on Thursday.

    Twenty one thousand tweets have been sent to date.

    This is my favourite:

    Felicity Morse @FelicityMorse

    #WhyImVotingUkip David Cameron didn't wish me happy birthday

    "Top 21 reasons" here: http://bzfd.it/1lPkuo8

    Thats an excellent reason for voting UKIP. Shame on Cammo for not sending a pasty at least.
  • Next
    Next Posts: 826
    edited May 2014
    EBay has asked users to change their passwords following a cyberattack that compromised one of its databases.

    "The database... included eBay customers' name, encrypted password, email address, physical address, phone number and date of birth," it said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-27503290

    Identity theft coming your way in 3..2..1..
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    shadsy said:

    Brief update from the coal face:
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/local-and-european-elections-betting-update/

    Ladbrokes general election constituencies market has been offline all day. Is that going to change today?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    ( I am relaxed about either)

    Some of the people who look after two relatives who are severely disabled. I wish they were paid double, treble what they are paid.

    The people who are standing at bus stops at 4 in the morning in January in central London waiting to go into the city to clean offices/do other menial,clerical,admin jobs. Often living cheek by jowl with families on benefits who are going to bed at the same time as they are getting up. Bloody heroes (and mostly black and brown faces). I wish they were paid loads more, or paid far less in tax.

    Soldiers/sailors/airmen risking their lives. I think their terms and conditions are a national shame.

    Need I go on?
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    taffys said:

    As always with the legal profession the default position is Nothing Is Ever Our Fault.

    Where were the clarion calls when legal aid was being raided for millions for foreigners who have never set foot in Britain to sue the British army on completely spurious grounds?

    Where was the criticism when certain barristers and judges used human rights law to effectively act as a (rather wll paid) fifth column against government policy?

    Grayling is doing what he is doing because he can. And in some respects the bar and the solicitors had it coming.

    What I get from the legal profession is a complete refusal to in any way whatsoever criticise or reform their attitudes and practices. They are completely right.

    It is a childish, amateurish and nonsensical position.

    The issue in this case does not depend on the position the Bar as a whole has taken in their dispute with the government about legal aid. It concerns whether defendants in a complex fraud trial can obtain satisfactory representation, without which, it is accepted by all sides, there can be no fair trial. So your attacks on lawyers as a whole are largely irrelevant. The question is, do we want to be a jurisdiction where it is impossible for anyone to get a fair trial in a serious fraud case. If that is the desired result, it will destroy the reputation of the City of London internationally, and will bring the common law of England into disrepute.

    Some other points of fact. It was Parliament that passed the Human Rights Act 1998, and said that British courts were obliged to have regard to the judgments of the Strasbourg Court. Parliament is free to change the law if it wishes, although it shows no inclination to do so.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    MikeK said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/ukip-candidate-bobby-anwar-stabbed-in-the-face-in-attack-9410465.html

    So, not a made up story then.

    Do I see apolgies from the many PB doubters on here, when the story first broke by Guido?

    Did anyone claim it was a made-up story? (Beyond noting that when breaking it Guido said 'if true' implying his own doubt). The doubt was more whether it was really political at bottom.

    I also note that Bobby Ansah is saying stabbed, Lancashire constabulary are saying punched.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    corporeal said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    'Wow' as in 'Wow you will believe anything no matter how obviously fake if it allows you to smear UKIP'?
    Jennifer Williams ‏@JenWilliamsMEN 3m

    @Stuart_Houston @SophieWarnes @MMinniemoo @paulwaugh It is genuine. I have seen the emails between the agent and the Electoral Commission
    And yet the URL links to a site that says it has nothing to do with UKIP.

    I suspect the site is telling porkies. The leaflet refers to "our deputy leader Paul Nuttall"

    If she's seen the emails between agent and commission then surely said emails must be acknowledging responsibility.

    Off the top of my head unless Chronic Oldham is affiliated with UKIP (and have a proper imprint somewhere), or registered with the electoral commission themselves then they're breaking the law.
    So I could go and produce a similar leaflet that said vote Conservative or Labour and those parties would be in trouble for it? Surely the crime lies with the people producing the leaflet not the party they purport to represent.
    Interesting argument, but why are you using a photo of Lenin as your avatar?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2014
    @antifrank

    Ahem.

    I seem to recall a couple of us raising our cyber-eyebrows a few weeks ago when it was reported that Joe Fitzpatrick had joined UKIP and that he was a UKIP candidate & agent.

    What was the party thinking? One didn't exactly need the world's most refined bargepole to realise that it would be wise to avoid that little snafu.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    taffys said:

    ''To a large majority of the public the idea of QCs being forced to take 30% pay cuts is a great one.''

    Especially as some of the best paid and high profile barristers in the land (they know who they are), have a towering contempt for British institutions and the governments they are so often set against.

    The best paid QCs do not do criminal legal aid work. Criminal barristers are amongst the worst paid barristers there are.

    People are entitled to their views about lawyers. When it's them or their son/daughter facing a prosecution and unable to find a suitably qualified and competent lawyer to help them they change their tune.
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @antifrank

    Ahem.

    I seem to recall a couple of us raising our cyber-eyebrows a few weeks ago when it was reported that Joe Fitzpatrick had joined UKIP and that he was a UKIP candidate & agent.

    What was the party thinking? One didn't exactly need the world's most refined bargepole to realise that it woud be wise to avoid that little snafu.

    This is the party which put Neil Hamilton on their NEC (though I believe they actually had someone sensible remove him a few months back). Not a den of sense at the best of times.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @antifrank

    Ahem.

    I seem to recall a couple of us raising our cyber-eyebrows a few weeks ago when it was reported that Joe Fitzpatrick had joined UKIP and that he was a UKIP candidate & agent.

    What was the party thinking? One didn't exactly need the world's most refined bargepole to realise that it woud be wise to avoid that little snafu.

    Leopards don't change their spots. I haven't the time or energy to search back, but I seem to recall some current Kippers being very exercised by Phil Woolas' tactics in 2010. Clearly time heals all wounds.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    German vs Romanian crime in England

    Who wants to make a market on it?

    There were 44,976 Germans living in London and 42,151 Romanians at the time

    5/6 the pair?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/reasons-to-love-your-german-neighbours/

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys

    No mention of nurses, those people who get up early in the morning to clean up your rubbish, sweep streets so they are tidy for the rest going to work etc, All of them taking a real term paycut while the people who proposed the wage cap trouser a healthy rise.
    Need I go on?
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Next said:

    EBay has asked users to change their passwords following a cyberattack that compromised one of its databases.

    "The database... included eBay customers' name, encrypted password, email address, physical address, phone number and date of birth," it said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-27503290

    Identity theft coming your way in 3..2..1..

    I dread the day Vanilla's passwords are compromised. Suddenly we won't know which accounts are being used by PBTories and we'll be accusing random people of being other posters.

    Actually, nothing much would change I guess.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    taffys said:

    As always with the legal profession the default position is Nothing Is Ever Our Fault.

    Where were the clarion calls when legal aid was being raided for millions for foreigners who have never set foot in Britain to sue the British army on completely spurious grounds?

    Where was the criticism when certain barristers and judges used human rights law to effectively act as a (rather wll paid) fifth column against government policy?

    Grayling is doing what he is doing because he can. And in some respects the bar and the solicitors had it coming.

    What I get from the legal profession is a complete refusal to in any way whatsoever criticise or reform their attitudes and practices. They are completely right.

    It is a childish, amateurish and nonsensical position.

    The issue in this case does not depend on the position the Bar as a whole has taken in their dispute with the government about legal aid. It concerns whether defendants in a complex fraud trial can obtain satisfactory representation, without which, it is accepted by all sides, there can be no fair trial. So your attacks on lawyers as a whole are largely irrelevant. The question is, do we want to be a jurisdiction where it is impossible for anyone to get a fair trial in a serious fraud case. If that is the desired result, it will destroy the reputation of the City of London internationally, and will bring the common law of England into disrepute.

    Some other points of fact. It was Parliament that passed the Human Rights Act 1998, and said that British courts were obliged to have regard to the judgments of the Strasbourg Court. Parliament is free to change the law if it wishes, although it shows no inclination to do so.
    Well said. And your point about our competitors looking at us with disbelief is true. My US and French colleagues who see this think we're a joke when it comes to catching and prosecuting fraudsters.

  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    O/T

    In terms of the type of Government we're likely to see after the 2015 GE, I feel a Labour Minority one offers the best value at generous odds of 8/1 with Paddy Power, subject to their customary pathetically low stake limits.

    This is likely to be the outcome should Labour win between 285 - 325 seats, which I also consider itself to be the most likely outcome (although I'd love Stephen Fisher to be right). I see the Socialists avoiding a coalition with the LibDems at all costs and this is all the more likely if the yellows suffer a halving or thereabouts of their current representation in the HoC.

    DYOR.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Cyclefree

    Our failure to convict fraudsters at least means that the financial sector remains lucrative, and attracts clever people to work in the "City"?
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    Cyclefree said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    taffys said:

    As always with the legal profession the default position is Nothing Is Ever Our Fault.

    Where were the clarion calls when legal aid was being raided for millions for foreigners who have never set foot in Britain to sue the British army on completely spurious grounds?

    Where was the criticism when certain barristers and judges used human rights law to effectively act as a (rather wll paid) fifth column against government policy?

    Grayling is doing what he is doing because he can. And in some respects the bar and the solicitors had it coming.

    What I get from the legal profession is a complete refusal to in any way whatsoever criticise or reform their attitudes and practices. They are completely right.

    It is a childish, amateurish and nonsensical position.

    The issue in this case does not depend on the position the Bar as a whole has taken in their dispute with the government about legal aid. It concerns whether defendants in a complex fraud trial can obtain satisfactory representation, without which, it is accepted by all sides, there can be no fair trial. So your attacks on lawyers as a whole are largely irrelevant. The question is, do we want to be a jurisdiction where it is impossible for anyone to get a fair trial in a serious fraud case. If that is the desired result, it will destroy the reputation of the City of London internationally, and will bring the common law of England into disrepute.

    Some other points of fact. It was Parliament that passed the Human Rights Act 1998, and said that British courts were obliged to have regard to the judgments of the Strasbourg Court. Parliament is free to change the law if it wishes, although it shows no inclination to do so.
    Well said. And your point about our competitors looking at us with disbelief is true. My US and French colleagues who see this think we're a joke when it comes to catching and prosecuting fraudsters.

    While I agree in general - and the case is not so much concerned with the general legal aid battle - I think there has been a general reluctance on the Bar to distinguish large scale commercial work (which one would struggle to describe as a "public service") from family and criminal where the Bar plays a more valuable social role. I there's an understandable sense of solidarity among those called to the Bar, but it does hinder the creation of a legal aid structure that supports the right places.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    SimonStClare said:

    BBC- 'Plebgate' police officer Susan Johnson dismissed

    "A policewoman has become the fourth officer to be sacked over press leaks related to the "plebgate" affair.

    A Metropolitan Police panel found PC Susan Johnson had breached standards of professional behaviour in relation to honesty and integrity.

    PCs Gillian Weatherley, Keith Wallis and James Glanville had already been sacked for gross misconduct."

    This Sue Johnson wouldn't happen to be a fat lady would she?
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Those of us who have had to deal with the quality of people employed by the Crown Prosecution Service will have their head in their hands at this point. If I were on trial for a serious crime I would be deeply depressed at the thought of entrusting my liberty to the sorts of people who end up working in such services."

    Errr... Mrs. Free, if the people working for the CPS are so bloody awful then isn't that the criminals' advantage. Actually, perhaps what you really mean is that if your were to be on trial for a serious crime you would be quite happy about the quality of the prosecutors but be aghast that you could be defended by such incompetents. Having not terribly good lawyers on both sides just levels the playing field?

    I have had this conversation so many times over the past forty years, each time to the horror of anyone from the legal establishment, but I am going to try again here. Perhaps it would be a good idea if a court hearing was primarily involved with establishing the true facts of what happened and not, as in England it is at the moment, be a "game played by and between lawyers for their own benefit".*

    * That quote verbatim was from a junior counsel who later went on to be a QC and a criminal judge. I think he is still alive otherwise I would name him and the place where he made the speech.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    David Davis' EU Parliament prediction:

    "He predicts a 32 24 22 win for the ‘kippers, with the Tories in third and an unexpectedly high turnout for a Euro-vote"

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/21/top-tory-attacks-cameron-euro-strategy/
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @Grandiose

    What we need is a new "Maggie" to curb the power of these "unions"
    Starve them and baton them till they fall into line I say!
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    anotherDave said:

    One finding from the Welsh polls is that UKIP gets support from a lot of Plaid Voters in the EU Parliament vote. I find it odd that UKIP doesn't appear to get the same cross-over from SNP voters.

    Surely if you're opposed to rule from London, you should also be opposed to rule from Brussels? But Plaid Cymru, and SNP are both pro-EU parties.

    pro-Scotland vs anti-England
    pro-Wales vs anti-England
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The weather warning for rain tomorrow has been extended to cover all of Wales and southern England.

    However, the rain is going to be patchy, and only heavy in relatively small areas for relatively short periods of time, so even if you think turnout is affected by the weather, it's not clear how large the effect would be.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Smarmeron said:

    @Cyclefree

    Our failure to convict fraudsters at least means that the financial sector remains lucrative, and attracts clever people to work in the "City"?

    No - it doesn't. Nor should it. If anything it makes my job and that of people like me much harder because crooks see that the authorities are not willing to put their money where their mouth is. Look at LIBOR: all the big fines and the pressure to take action has come from the US because they take enforcement seriously.

    There is no competitive advantage in being viewed as dishonest. Quite the contrary. If a proper City is to prosper - not just for itself but for the rest of us - it needs to be "clean". It won't be if people believe that the chances of being caught and punished are low. And it sends an appalling message to those who are doing the right thing and behaving honestly - that they're mugs for doing so.

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Cyclefree

    Irony does not always work well in text, but take it from me that I agree with you.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    SimonStClare said:

    BBC- 'Plebgate' police officer Susan Johnson dismissed

    "A policewoman has become the fourth officer to be sacked over press leaks related to the "plebgate" affair.

    A Metropolitan Police panel found PC Susan Johnson had breached standards of professional behaviour in relation to honesty and integrity.

    PCs Gillian Weatherley, Keith Wallis and James Glanville had already been sacked for gross misconduct."

    This Sue Johnson wouldn't happen to be a fat lady would she?
    You don't have to be fat, to sing Mr Jones - actually it was her phone that 'did the talking' ; )
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    taffys said:

    As always with the legal profession the default position is Nothing Is Ever Our Fault.

    Where were the clarion calls when legal aid was being raided for millions for foreigners who have never set foot in Britain to sue the British army on completely spurious grounds?

    Where was the criticism when certain barristers and judges used human rights law to effectively act as a (rather wll paid) fifth column against government policy?

    Grayling is doing what he is doing because he can. And in some respects the bar and the solicitors had it coming.

    What I get from the legal profession is a complete refusal to in any way whatsoever criticise or reform their attitudes and practices. They are completely right.

    It is a childish, amateurish and nonsensical position.

    ....
    Some other points of fact. It was Parliament that passed the Human Rights Act 1998, and said that British courts were obliged to have regard to the judgments of the Strasbourg Court. Parliament is free to change the law if it wishes, although it shows no inclination to do so.
    But it was mainly lawyers in Labour and the Lib Dems that pushed for the HRA. It then provided a significant new revenue stream for some chambers. Unfortunately the legal profession just does not recognise the financial realities of the UK Govt finances.

    So if we are stuck with the legal profession's HRA then it would have been more constructive if the legal profession had proposed alternative ways of reducing legal aid by 30%+.

  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    MrJones said:

    anotherDave said:

    One finding from the Welsh polls is that UKIP gets support from a lot of Plaid Voters in the EU Parliament vote. I find it odd that UKIP doesn't appear to get the same cross-over from SNP voters.

    Surely if you're opposed to rule from London, you should also be opposed to rule from Brussels? But Plaid Cymru, and SNP are both pro-EU parties.

    pro-Scotland vs anti-England
    pro-Wales vs anti-England
    SNP anti-England with about 20% English-born members, IIRC?

    You're confusing England with the UK polity and Westminster government/establishment.

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    My US and French colleagues who see this think we're a joke when it comes to catching and prosecuting fraudsters.

    Isn't the legal aid budget only for defence, and not prosecution?

    To answer a separate point, perhaps there might be some cash left for serious fraud trials if certain members of the profession didn't pillage the legal aid budget for so many funds on behalf of people who have never set foot in the country (as mentioned before, with regard to a group of Iraqis?).

    I read the other that one particular firm garnered 10 million quid in legal aid fees for this type of case in one year alone.

    Shouldn't the profession be getting together and having a discussion about the prioritisation of funding? Is the question of scurrilous cases eating up the funds that can be better used elsewhere even being raised?

    Of course it isn't. Because the profession is never wrong, and never needs to be reformed at all.
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    [I]f the people working for the CPS are so bloody awful then isn't that the criminals' advantage. Actually, perhaps what you really mean is that if your were to be on trial for a serious crime you would be quite happy about the quality of the prosecutors but be aghast that you could be defended by such incompetents. Having not terribly good lawyers on both sides just levels the playing field?

    I have had this conversation so many times over the past forty years, each time to the horror of anyone from the legal establishment, but I am going to try again here. Perhaps it would be a good idea if a court hearing was primarily involved with establishing the true facts of what happened and not, as in England it is at the moment, be a "game played by and between lawyers for their own benefit".

    The CPS being useless may on occasion help criminals. The more general consequence is that the cost of the criminal justice system is increased, and its effective administration is weakened. That is contrary to the public interest. What is absolutely extraordinary is that the government want to implement a CPS-style model in criminal defence, on the lunatic assumption that it will save money and be more efficient.

    The adversarial system is not a game played by lawyers for their own benefit. It is merely a different (and often better) way of establishing the facts than a continental inquisition.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    anotherDave said:

    Scott_P said:

    Just wow.

    @paulwaugh: New UKIP leaflet race row. Great scoop by @JenWilliamsMEN http://t.co/w5NVYUvcqy http://t.co/0RZa0h1wwh

    Yesterday's romanian protesters turned not to be romanian. This leaflet may turn out to be fake too.
    Lefties publicizing how the postal vote system is being scammed all over the country.

    Result.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Interesting that Phil Woolas's old agent is now a UKIP activist. And look what he is up to:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-oldham-leaflet-racism-row-7148269
  • valleyboy
    valleyboy Posts: 606
    Decent enough poll for Labour in Wales. A lot of groundwork has been done. Certainly in my neck of the woods and I woułd be disappointed if we do not get 2 seats. I have said before that Plaid has had its high water mark, and I see no signs of a real recovery of the momentum they had in the early years of the Assembly. I know that they are very nervous about losing their MEP, and the Liberałs have given up already. I would not be at all surprised to see 2 Lab, 1 UKIP and 1 Con next Monday morning.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Janet Daley:
    "That [anti-UKIP smear] campaign has done what would have been utterly beyond the capability of Ukip's own amateurish, content-less, incoherent presentation: it has permanently installed the idea that the political class are a united vindictive force which regards the anxieties and concerns of a large proportion of voters with contempt."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100272395/osborne-says-stop-abusing-ukip-supporters-a-bit-late-george/

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/20/voters-think-media-more-biased-against-UKIP/

    If the majority of the British public now see UKIP as THE antiestablishment party, how the dickens are the LDs going to revive their third party status after the 2015 election?
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    valleyboy said:

    Decent enough poll for Labour in Wales. A lot of groundwork has been done. Certainly in my neck of the woods and I woułd be disappointed if we do not get 2 seats. I have said before that Plaid has had its high water mark, and I see no signs of a real recovery of the momentum they had in the early years of the Assembly. I know that they are very nervous about losing their MEP, and the Liberałs have given up already. I would not be at all surprised to see 2 Lab, 1 UKIP and 1 Con next Monday morning.

    What benefit does Plaid get from having an MEP?

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting that Phil Woolas's old agent is now a UKIP activist. And look what he is up to:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-oldham-leaflet-racism-row-7148269

    Really?

    Got any tips for the 3.30 at Lingfield?!
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    taffys said:

    Isn't the legal aid budget only for defence, and not prosecution?

    Yes. It is, however, common ground between the Financial Conduct Authority and the defence that if adequate representation cannot obtained, there can be no fair trial. If there can be no fair trial, the court is obliged by law to stay the indictment as an abuse of process. So it will become impossible to prosecute successfully for fraud any defendant if the current situation continues. As for your point about the total legal aid budget, it is no doubt true that some of it could be better spent. The issue you do not address is why that should affect these cases, and these defendants, who cannot be held responsible for the situation. They are still entitled to a fair trial under the common law and article 6 of the ECHR.
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