People being defended on legal aid are at a massive disadvantage. In a recent case involving a friend of mine, her lawyer never even bothered to turn up for the trial. The case being defended by the first lawyer that could be found, and with five minutes to appraise himself of the details. Result, quick trial, guilty verdict, and a woman and her sons now facing eviction from their home.
Perhaps more evidence of good luck for UKIP: there was heavy rain today in East Anglia, but tomorrow it's forecast to be fine and sunny. Since this will probably be the party's best region they wouldn't have wanted bad weather there tomorrow.
Some UKIP supporters are probably cock-a-hoop at tomorrow's heavy rain forecast in a lot of the country, since the lower turnout is the better they'll do in all likelihood, although personally I don't think bad weather makes that much difference if someone is intending to go to the polling station.
First post, after lurking.
If it's raining hard will the oldies actually turn out?
Some UKIP supporters are probably cock-a-hoop at tomorrow's heavy rain forecast in a lot of the country, since the lower turnout is the better they'll do in all likelihood, although personally I don't think bad weather makes that much difference if someone is intending to go to the polling station.
First post, after lurking.
If it's raining hard will the oldies actually turn out?
Probably.
1. Oldies are more culturally inclined to vote anyway. 2. They'll probably have all day to do so, so may catch a gap in the rain; workers are stuck with early morning or evening. 3. They may well have cast a postal vote well before now.
As an aside, it's notable that the majority of rain tomorrow looks like falling in the SW, Wales, the north of England, and Scotland. If so, that should depress turnout in the most Labour-friendly areas (and the SW). While it probably won't have an effect on the MEPs elected - fewer people voting in the NE has no effect on who's elected in London - it may matter as far as national shares are concerned.
The Green lady Natalie Bennett, always seems to make a point of dropping 'Common Good' into her TV remarks.
Is there a subtext associated with that phrase that I'm not aware of?
I think it's simply supposed to sound like a nice thing - in a similar vein to the way Cameron talks about "people who want to get on" - with the difference being that it espouses a collectivist rather than individualist ideal..
The LibDems will survive by regrouping on the opposition benches.
The LibDems have survived worse. In 1990 they were polling negligible figures, yet had 50 MPs within a decade.
I do not see UKIP doing that, but in the unlikely event of gaining an MP, they will be sitting on the opposition benches next to the Cleggites. There is no party that UKIP would form a coalition with, but it is entirely realistic to have LDs in coalition again soon.
Janet Daley: "That [anti-UKIP smear] campaign has done what would have been utterly beyond the capability of Ukip's own amateurish, content-less, incoherent presentation: it has permanently installed the idea that the political class are a united vindictive force which regards the anxieties and concerns of a large proportion of voters with contempt."
If the majority of the British public now see UKIP as THE antiestablishment party, how the dickens are the LDs going to revive their third party status after the 2015 election?
Re-grouping how? We have just had a national campaign with The Establishment on one side (inc LDs) and UKIP on the other.
The antiestablishment party is now UKIP, and the LDs are now another marque of The Establishment.
Re: MPs. I think Eastleigh will be one of the seats won by UKIP candidates in 2015.
People being defended on legal aid are at a massive disadvantage. In a recent case involving a friend of mine, her lawyer never even bothered to turn up for the trial. The case being defended by the first lawyer that could be found, and with five minutes to appraise himself of the details. Result, quick trial, guilty verdict, and a woman and her sons now facing eviction from their home.
You might want to flesh that out a bit. Well only if you want someone to believe what you seem to be trying to say. As it stands I'd say bollocks, but I am sure if you provide some detail....
People being defended on legal aid are at a massive disadvantage. In a recent case involving a friend of mine, her lawyer never even bothered to turn up for the trial. The case being defended by the first lawyer that could be found, and with five minutes to appraise himself of the details. Result, quick trial, guilty verdict, and a woman and her sons now facing eviction from their home.
But often that is enough. When I was new at the bar I used to do temp fiscalling. This meant I would turn up in a town, be presented with the papers for about 15 trials, wander along to a court, see if any pleas were on offer or warrants required for those who had failed to trap and then get on with the first trial, usually by the back of 11.
I would do 3 or 4 trials in the day, sometimes without even a chance to read the statements before the witness was taking the oath. The defence was generally slightly better prepared but would sometimes ask for a peek at my statements.
It is summary justice and it works because most crime is not that complicated. The sort of fraud cases Cyclefree is talking about are a completely different species.
The Green lady Natalie Bennett, always seems to make a point of dropping 'Common Good' into her TV remarks.
Is there a subtext associated with that phrase that I'm not aware of?
It's used frequently by Compass,the left think-tank,who promote a non-tribal consensus amongst the left.It could be assumed that it is code for a wide-left spectrum with Natalie Bennett pitching herself as the left candidate,rather than,for example,Labour,the Nats or No2EU,to represent this coalition of opinion-similar to the Syriza dynamic in Greece. The common good is also a frequently used concept in some university philosophy departments,notably UEA,where the Greens have a philosopher candidate in the East. My arguments with the Greens is that they really do not appreciate class.
Perhaps more evidence of good luck for UKIP: there was heavy rain today in East Anglia, but tomorrow it's forecast to be fine and sunny. Since this will probably be the party's best region they wouldn't have wanted bad weather there tomorrow.
In 2009 UKIP polled 22.1% in the South-West and 19.6% in the Eastern region, with about 30,000 more votes in the South-West.
By diluting the UKIP anti-establishment vote. The biggest threat to the Lib Dems is being pushed into fourth by UKIP, who then establish themselves as a better alternative. True, they've a long way to go before they get there and could easily come a cropper for any number of reasons but it'd be a lot harder for any party to come back from a disastrous showing these days simply because of the amount of competition (far more than there was in 1990, for example).
The Lib Dems are helped in one sense by being centrist and as such, not being hated from an ideological position by a sizable part of the electorate (taking decisions in government is a different matter), but the flip side's also true: who dies in the last ditch so that their party might act as a moderating influence?
It's not clear to me that the LDs can recover. They fill no obvious niche. The only USP that seems to be associated with them is 'nice', and that's not a very strong binding for a political party.
"The Australian Democrats, who, at their height, held the balance of power in the Australian Senate, also went into coalition with a right wing government and passed a policy into law that that had previously campaigned. Then they also started to lose, and kept losing. Today, they poll at just over 1% and have lost all national representation. Their third party replacement? The Australian Greens."
will shift a few more seats - she isn't the first Junoesque or statuesque singer to fall foul of the critics.
Perhaps she might become trapped in a revolving door and will remember the advice given to another great singer to go in sideways. But: Honey, I ain't got no sideways.''
People being defended on legal aid are at a massive disadvantage. In a recent case involving a friend of mine, her lawyer never even bothered to turn up for the trial. The case being defended by the first lawyer that could be found, and with five minutes to appraise himself of the details. Result, quick trial, guilty verdict, and a woman and her sons now facing eviction from their home.
But often that is enough. When I was new at the bar I used to do temp fiscalling. This meant I would turn up in a town, be presented with the papers for about 15 trials, wander along to a court, see if any pleas were on offer or warrants required for those who had failed to trap and then get on with the first trial, usually by the back of 11.
I would do 3 or 4 trials in the day, sometimes without even a chance to read the statements before the witness was taking the oath. The defence was generally slightly better prepared but would sometimes ask for a peek at my statements.
It is summary justice and it works because most crime is not that complicated. The sort of fraud cases Cyclefree is talking about are a completely different species.
I have been doing my best to resist but I can't any longer the problems of the very junior bar are nothing new: Gilbert & Sullivan in 1875 -
"When I, good friends, was call'd to the bar I'd an appetite fresh and hearty But I was, as many young barristers are An impecunious party I'd a swallow-tail coat of a beautiful blue And a brief which I bought of a booby A couple of shirts, and a collar or two And a ring that looked like a ruby
He'd a couple of shirts, and a collar or two And a ring that look'd like a ruby
At Westminister Hall I danc'd a dance Like a semi-despondent fury For I tho't I never should hit on a chance Of addressing a British jury But I soon got tired of third-class journeys And dinners of bread and water So I fell in love with a rich attorney's Elderly, ugly daughter ...."
Yup, not very complicated, and being mainly poor, they were probably guilty anyway. In this case the prosecution had a special police expert to help the Judge form his opinion........and even I could have ripped his "evidence to shreds, It was a bit of a pity that her under informed lawyer just stood there blankly and accepted everything he said as fact. Apparently having a couple of zip lock bags about the house (like the ones for fishing hooks/small jewelry) constitutes concrete evidence of drug dealing and not simple possession (her late husband was a (jeweler).
Yup, not very complicated, and being mainly poor, they were probably guilty anyway. In this case the prosecution had a special police expert to help the Judge form his opinion........and even I could have ripped his "evidence to shreds, It was a bit of a pity that her under informed lawyer just stood there blankly and accepted everything he said as fact. Apparently having a couple of zip lock bags about the house (like the ones for fishing hooks/small jewelry) constitutes concrete evidence of drug dealing and not simple possession (her late husband was a (jeweler).
The sad truth is that many lawyers are no better than this no matter how much preparation time they are given. Most defence solicitors in my experience are pretty sharp and have long since learned to live on their wits rather than any great legal analysis. And that is what the job requires.
The more I think about it the more disappointed I am with Tories on this site and elsewhere condemning Farage's comments. If it were a maverick Tory minister or high profile back bencher it would be being labeled a non-story and there would be accusations of bias by the BBC and news organisations. Scott P would be posting any Tory supporting twits. The difference would be that our UKIP supporters would not be saying anything different than they are now even if a Tory were to be the one making the comment.
The only thing Farage is guilty of is being stupid and naïve enough to think that anything that could even possibly be construed as racist wouldn't be used against him and UKIP in the run up to the election. The question was a clear gotcha and the questioner incredibly hostile, the way that the normally supportive press and level headed posters have sided with a clearly idiotic question and questioner is disgraceful.
I'm not a UKIP supporter and as many of you know I wouldn't go into their camp because I do not believe they do enough to filter out ex BNP and EDL members from their rank and file, and their policies aren't very consistent. However, it is clear to me and many others that Farage is not racist. The useful idiots on the left who say anything like that should not be entertained and right leaning commenters and posters should not be giving them the time of day.
Yup, not very complicated, and being mainly poor, they were probably guilty anyway. In this case the prosecution had a special police expert to help the Judge form his opinion........and even I could have ripped his "evidence to shreds, It was a bit of a pity that her under informed lawyer just stood there blankly and accepted everything he said as fact. Apparently having a couple of zip lock bags about the house (like the ones for fishing hooks/small jewelry) constitutes concrete evidence of drug dealing and not simple possession (her late husband was a (jeweler).
If the conviction was recorded in the Magistrates' Court, an appeal, by way of rehearing, lies as of right to the Crown Court. That means the prosecution are effectively required to prove their case again. The court is constituted by a Circuit Judge or Recorder, and two Justices of the Peace, and is (relatively) inexpensive.
I am somewhat puzzled that your average court case for a legal aid funded defendant is over in a flash, but that the same charge defended by a well paid lawyer takes far more time on average, with actual questions being asked of the prosecution witnesses. 14 grams of cannabis being drug dealing, over twice that weight of cocaine being "personal"
Right on cue a very helpful article for those who seem to have missed the far more important issues on the left of European politics.There is just as intense debate on the left as there is on the right,which we all get to hear about infinitum,unless you read Britain's only socialist daily,The Morning Star,a co-operative newspaper owned by its' readers,and with the Racing Post Tipster,Farringdon,who,of course,took over from the other master tipster,Cayton,and the occasional taster in the Grauniad. For PB Tories,know thine enemy.
The track record of this BBC woman is irrelevant. She has made her political leanings clear and so should be fired, or at least removed from the newsroom. People like Craig Oliver, Thea Rogers and Will Walden did not reveal their Tory sympathies when working in senior positions at BBC News until very recently. She should not have done either.
I wonder if there is an instant defence in that the BBC corporation itself has done just that - made its political leanings clear in refusing to resign membership of a political activist organization, the CBI, immediately the latter self-declared as one (quite apart from what we all knew anyway). Even just suspending membership for the official campaign period doesn't cut it given the importance of the link before and after the formal period.
Even the NUJ, not so far as I know run by Mr Salmond (irony here), is unhappy, and very much so. Latest report here
Hmmm - Scottish NUJ leader Paul Holleran may - just - have skin in the game:
Ahead of the conference, which opens tomorrow (Mon, April 14), Paul Holleran, Scottish Organiser of the National Union of Journalists and a member of Trade Unionists for Yes, said: “More and more trade unionists are moving to Yes, and believe that we are more likely to deliver a fairer and more just Scotland with the full powers of an independent country.
“Issues like health and safety, working conditions and wages are the real priorities for trade unions and our members, but powers to address these issues remain outside the hands of Scotland’s Parliament and our labour movement.
“Scotland has a strong and proud union movement, but we have been held back in Scotland for a generation. With a Yes vote we can get moving again.”
Funnily enough News Net Scotland does not mention that in its report.
Point well made and taken! And an interesting one too. But there is, of course, a difference between demonstrated membership of an activist body (especially when seen alongside the conclusions of the recent academic studies on BBC Scotland output) and simply calling for that membership to be removed. Doesn't mean Mr Holleran is doing anything more than calling for balance and balance that is seen to be there - if STV saw the point and pulled out instantly the CBI nominally came out of the unionist closet then one can ask why not the BBC, which is publicly funded.
I see Matthew D'Ancona is working his magic in the Evening Standard again tonight. It's his equivalent of the famous Guardian 'Boris will end life as we know it' article back in 2008.
Carnyx - But the BBC did pull out didn't they? I honestly can't remember.
No: not quite :
1. Tried to hold on much longer than comparable bodies which mostly jumped ship the moment the CBI signed up with the electoral commission ... 2. Said they'd suspend membership for the referendum campaign only and then be full member again [despite the political importance of the CBI in the entire Scottish devolution and indy campaign] 3. Can't remember what happened when the CBI claimed it was all a mistake and they (the CBI) weren't really signing up with the Electoral Commission after all because it was a junior staffer who sgned it and never mind what the Director and the website had been saying ... 4. Ended up transferring membership to BBC Worldwide their commercial arm (but still providing the CBI with good fat money)
Slightly hazy about 3's relative timing, but the BBC don't come out as any more efficient, unbiased and decisive than the CBI!
Ha. Sorry, this bit was gold: "But the Tory modernising movement had its roots in an embrace of the world as it is, in all it's social complexity and its fizzing diversity. The comparative reticence of the Conservative mods in the face of UKIP's appalling rhetoric has been almost as depressing as the rhetoric itself."
Yes, that's it. The solution to UKIP is to get the Conservative modernisers to speak out more. Those same modernisers whom, through their sneering, patronising and sheer contempt for their own party members, has seen the voluntary party half in size, and UKIP rise to become the 3rd force in British politics.
Right on cue a very helpful article for those who seem to have missed the far more important issues on the left of European politics.There is just as intense debate on the left as there is on the right,which we all get to hear about infinitum,unless you read Britain's only socialist daily,The Morning Star,a co-operative newspaper owned by its' readers,and with the Racing Post Tipster,Farringdon,who,of course,took over from the other master tipster,Cayton,and the occasional taster in the Grauniad. For PB Tories,know thine enemy.
I'm biased Carnyx, I'm No - I think both CBI and BBC come out of that quite well.
Amazing that the Confederation of BRITISH Industries and The BRITISH Broadcasting Corporation should oppose an anti-British faction like the SNP. It's a rum old world.
I am somewhat puzzled that your average court case for a legal aid funded defendant is over in a flash, but that the same charge defended by a well paid lawyer takes far more time on average, with actual questions being asked of the prosecution witnesses. 14 grams of cannabis being drug dealing, over twice that weight of cocaine being "personal"
As you say, Smaremeron, the law and the system stuffs the poor again.
In what was obviously the most important vote this week, the University of Oxford (via its student union) has just voted to disaffiliate from the National Union of Students.
Evening all. Been out campaigning today, 10 hours of solid leafleting. Shifted about 4500 of the buggers. Still feel that the Tory vote is relatively solid in my patch. Pockets of kippery, it may well be because having killed the Lib Dems locally 2 decades ago and the Labour Party locally has disintegrated of late people welcome the semblance of choice. I'm confident that we will hold most of our seats locally. There are 2 I'm more circumspect about which could go UKIP and in fact really ought to for reasons too boring to go into. My feeling is it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster of it happened as our majority on the council is bullet proof this cycle and the last time we lost a seat to a fringe party it galvanised campaigning for 4-5 years after. I'm willing to bet the same would be the case again. Tomorrow I'm doing several hours on polling stations and GOTV.
Evening all. Been out campaigning today, 10 hours of solid leafleting. Shifted about 4500 of the buggers. Still feel that the Tory vote is relatively solid in my patch. Pockets of kippery, it may well be because having killed the Lib Dems locally 2 decades ago and the Labour Party locally has disintegrated of late people welcome the semblance of choice. I'm confident that we will hold most of our seats locally. There are 2 I'm more circumspect about which could go UKIP and in fact really ought to for reasons too boring to go into. My feeling is it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster of it happened as our majority on the council is bullet proof this cycle and the last time we lost a seat to a fringe party it galvanised campaigning for 4-5 years after. I'm willing to bet the same would be the case again. Tomorrow I'm doing several hours on polling stations and GOTV.
I did 90 minutes leaflet delivering the other morning, I wouldn't want to put in 10 hours. Well Done You!
Cash continues to pile on the SNP for Most Votes in Scotland at the Euros. Hills have just slashed their SNP price yet again, from 1/7 to 1/9. I got on when it was 1/4. Shadsy had the SNP at 1/3 until last week (now 1/5).
The LibDems will survive by regrouping on the opposition benches.
The LibDems have survived worse. In 1990 they were polling negligible figures, yet had 50 MPs within a decade.
I do not see UKIP doing that, but in the unlikely event of gaining an MP, they will be sitting on the opposition benches next to the Cleggites. There is no party that UKIP would form a coalition with, but it is entirely realistic to have LDs in coalition again soon.
Janet Daley: "That [anti-UKIP smear] campaign has done what would have been utterly beyond the capability of Ukip's own amateurish, content-less, incoherent presentation: it has permanently installed the idea that the political class are a united vindictive force which regards the anxieties and concerns of a large proportion of voters with contempt."
If the majority of the British public now see UKIP as THE antiestablishment party, how the dickens are the LDs going to revive their third party status after the 2015 election?
Re-grouping how? We have just had a national campaign with The Establishment on one side (inc LDs) and UKIP on the other.
The antiestablishment party is now UKIP, and the LDs are now another marque of The Establishment.
Re: MPs. I think Eastleigh will be one of the seats won by UKIP candidates in 2015.
Con 1,013 (Current 1,535) Lab 1,518 (Current 1,763) LD 547 (Current 691) UKIP 751 (Current 31) Green 132 (current 18)
Are the Conservatives in for a bad night?
The Tories were always in for a less than wonderful night. However, Labour was supposed to benefit to the tune of several hundred gains. Labour having 250 losses and being Kippered would be the story of the night.
Con 1,013 (Current 1,535) Lab 1,518 (Current 1,763) LD 547 (Current 691) UKIP 751 (Current 31) Green 132 (current 18)
Are the Conservatives in for a bad night?
Why would you assume a perfect PR result? There's no way UKIP will score that well, the Greens likewise. As last year, the Lib Dems will very probably win more seats than UKIP despite polling fewer votes (almost certainly so if the shares are as the Survation figures).
The LibDems will survive by regrouping on the opposition benches.
The LibDems have survived worse. In 1990 they were polling negligible figures, yet had 50 MPs within a decade.
I do not see UKIP doing that, but in the unlikely event of gaining an MP, they will be sitting on the opposition benches next to the Cleggites. There is no party that UKIP would form a coalition with, but it is entirely realistic to have LDs in coalition again soon.
Janet Daley: "That [anti-UKIP smear] campaign has done what would have been utterly beyond the capability of Ukip's own amateurish, content-less, incoherent presentation: it has permanently installed the idea that the political class are a united vindictive force which regards the anxieties and concerns of a large proportion of voters with contempt."
If the majority of the British public now see UKIP as THE antiestablishment party, how the dickens are the LDs going to revive their third party status after the 2015 election?
Re-grouping how? We have just had a national campaign with The Establishment on one side (inc LDs) and UKIP on the other.
The antiestablishment party is now UKIP, and the LDs are now another marque of The Establishment.
Re: MPs. I think Eastleigh will be one of the seats won by UKIP candidates in 2015.
Evening all. Been out campaigning today, 10 hours of solid leafleting. Shifted about 4500 of the buggers. Still feel that the Tory vote is relatively solid in my patch. Pockets of kippery, it may well be because having killed the Lib Dems locally 2 decades ago and the Labour Party locally has disintegrated of late people welcome the semblance of choice. I'm confident that we will hold most of our seats locally. There are 2 I'm more circumspect about which could go UKIP and in fact really ought to for reasons too boring to go into. My feeling is it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster of it happened as our majority on the council is bullet proof this cycle and the last time we lost a seat to a fringe party it galvanised campaigning for 4-5 years after. I'm willing to bet the same would be the case again. Tomorrow I'm doing several hours on polling stations and GOTV.
I did 90 minutes leaflet delivering the other morning, I wouldn't want to put in 10 hours. Well Done You!
Thanks! I'm a masochist for elections. Last GE I did 14 hour days for 3 weeks getting my MP reelected. I was musing with a friend that in my 15 years of activity I've probably delivered approaching a quarter of a million pieces of literature. But I'm a politics geek.
Con 1,013 (Current 1,535) Lab 1,518 (Current 1,763) LD 547 (Current 691) UKIP 751 (Current 31) Green 132 (current 18)
Are the Conservatives in for a bad night?
Why would you assume a perfect PR result? There's no way UKIP will score that well, the Greens likewise. As last year, the Lib Dems will very probably win more seats than UKIP despite polling fewer votes (almost certainly so if the shares are as the Survation figures).
I wouldn't! I was just trying to get an inkling of the likely result from the poll.
Is there a 'votes cast' version of the 2010 local elections result anywhere?
The LibDems will survive by regrouping on the opposition benches.
The LibDems have survived worse. In 1990 they were polling negligible figures, yet had 50 MPs within a decade.
I do not see UKIP doing that, but in the unlikely event of gaining an MP, they will be sitting on the opposition benches next to the Cleggites. There is no party that UKIP would form a coalition with, but it is entirely realistic to have LDs in coalition again soon.
Janet Daley: "That [anti-UKIP smear] campaign has done what would have been utterly beyond the capability of Ukip's own amateurish, content-less, incoherent presentation: it has permanently installed the idea that the political class are a united vindictive force which regards the anxieties and concerns of a large proportion of voters with contempt."
If the majority of the British public now see UKIP as THE antiestablishment party, how the dickens are the LDs going to revive their third party status after the 2015 election?
Re-grouping how? We have just had a national campaign with The Establishment on one side (inc LDs) and UKIP on the other.
The antiestablishment party is now UKIP, and the LDs are now another marque of The Establishment.
Re: MPs. I think Eastleigh will be one of the seats won by UKIP candidates in 2015.
Evening all. Been out campaigning today, 10 hours of solid leafleting. Shifted about 4500 of the buggers. Still feel that the Tory vote is relatively solid in my patch. Pockets of kippery, it may well be because having killed the Lib Dems locally 2 decades ago and the Labour Party locally has disintegrated of late people welcome the semblance of choice. I'm confident that we will hold most of our seats locally. There are 2 I'm more circumspect about which could go UKIP and in fact really ought to for reasons too boring to go into. My feeling is it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster of it happened as our majority on the council is bullet proof this cycle and the last time we lost a seat to a fringe party it galvanised campaigning for 4-5 years after. I'm willing to bet the same would be the case again. Tomorrow I'm doing several hours on polling stations and GOTV.
Well done, particularly since you believe that support is still quite solid, you (and others?) are not being complacent.
I think it's very inconsiderate of the EU to make us wait till Sunday for the result! [stamp foot][shake fist]
It's jolly inconsiderate to those of us have to write a meaningful leader piece on Friday evening too.
I apologise if someone answered before, but are we expecting any exit polls before Saturday evening? Is that allowed?
I'm not expecting any exit polls.
With the best will in the world, I just don't think there's any interest in conducting them for non General Election elections, they cost a lot of time and money.
It's jolly inconsiderate to those of us have to write a meaningful leader piece on Friday evening too.
I apologise if someone answered before, but are we expecting any exit polls before Saturday evening? Is that allowed?
I'm not expecting any exit polls.
With the best will in the world, I just don't think there's any interest in conducting them for non General Election elections, they cost a lot of time and money.
Friday and Saturday would be enough, no, for YouGov to poll enough people and ask how they actually voted? (I know nothing of electoral law on this point, much less EU law to avoid referential voting)
It's jolly inconsiderate to those of us have to write a meaningful leader piece on Friday evening too.
Tell me about it.
Plus Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll comes out Saturday morning as well.
I apologise if someone answered before, but are we expecting any exit polls before Saturday evening? Is that allowed?
I doubt exit polls will be allowed for the same reason that the count can't start until the final polls close in Europe. It certainly wouldn't be allowed under UK law; I don't know whether the same applies under EU rules.
That said, even if they are allowed, I doubt they'd be conducted? Given the size of the constituencies, there'd be doubts about the methodologies - either new or at least untried on this scale - and that wouldn't be resolved until the results were in anyway.
Scottish independence referendum by phone: 'Even yes voters were polite' - Campaign Bites: an evening of Blether Together telephone canvassing with pro-union volunteers from Helensburgh
... "The yes campaign are everywhere and if we don't get out there then people will think they won't bother voting because we've lost already."
I think it's very inconsiderate of the EU to make us wait till Sunday for the result! [stamp foot][shake fist]
It's jolly inconsiderate to those of us have to write a meaningful leader piece on Friday evening too.
I apologise if someone answered before, but are we expecting any exit polls before Saturday evening? Is that allowed?
I'm not expecting any exit polls.
With the best will in the world, I just don't think there's any interest in conducting them for non General Election elections, they cost a lot of time and money.
Friday and Saturday would be enough, no, for YouGov to poll enough people and ask how they actually voted? (I know nothing of electoral law on this point, much less EU law to avoid referential voting)
Electoral law is pretty simple.
Section 66 of the 1983 Representation of the People Act forbids "any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election" before polls close.
Friday and Saturday would be enough, no, for YouGov to poll enough people and ask how they actually voted? (I know nothing of electoral law on this point, much less EU law to avoid referential voting)
As I replied previously:
The publication of exit polls in European parliamentary elections is governed by regulation 30 of the European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 2004 SI 2004/293. No person may publish an exit poll before the close of the poll. The close of poll means, in the case of a general election of MEPs, the close of the polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote in the election. A person who contravenes the prohibition is guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction, to a term of imprisonment not exceeding six months or to a fine not exceeding level five on the standard scale.
Evening all. Been out campaigning today, 10 hours of solid leafleting. Shifted about 4500 of the buggers. Still feel that the Tory vote is relatively solid in my patch. Pockets of kippery, it may well be because having killed the Lib Dems locally 2 decades ago and the Labour Party locally has disintegrated of late people welcome the semblance of choice. I'm confident that we will hold most of our seats locally. There are 2 I'm more circumspect about which could go UKIP and in fact really ought to for reasons too boring to go into. My feeling is it wouldn't necessarily be a disaster of it happened as our majority on the council is bullet proof this cycle and the last time we lost a seat to a fringe party it galvanised campaigning for 4-5 years after. I'm willing to bet the same would be the case again. Tomorrow I'm doing several hours on polling stations and GOTV.
Well done, particularly since you believe that support is still quite solid, you (and others?) are not being complacent.
We believe you have to feel you've earned the votes. We work hard, huge majorities aren't an accident.
Friday and Saturday would be enough, no, for YouGov to poll enough people and ask how they actually voted? (I know nothing of electoral law on this point, much less EU law to avoid referential voting)
As I replied previously:
The publication of exit polls in European parliamentary elections is governed by regulation 30 of the European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 2004 SI 2004/293. No person may publish an exit poll before the close of the poll. The close of poll means, in the case of a general election of MEPs, the close of the polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote in the election. A person who contravenes the prohibition is guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction, to a term of imprisonment not exceeding six months or to a fine not exceeding level five on the standard scale.
Sorry for missing that, LIAMT. That would mean Saturday night?
In any case I admit the business reasons for doing so would be slim.
A former archbishop of Canterbury has lambasted the "marketisation of politics" in Britain, blaming US Presidential-style televised debates and analysis driven by opinion polls as factors in making Britons "worse people".
Writing in the New Statesman, Rowan Williams, who is a book reviewer for the magazine, cited these two political strands as the reason why society has become increasingly "mistrustful" and easily swayed by "populist manipulation"......
....Opinion polls have become similarly ubiquitous in the UK, with parties using daily polling to get a better handle on public reaction.
Euro elections: UK ties with US and Scotland also at stake
... Defence chiefs adopt a nonchalant air when it comes to the Scottish referendum, claiming that they have not bothered to draw up a contingency plan in the event of a Yes vote. If true, this would be very strange since, as I have mentioned before, the Ministry of Defence has a contingency plan for every possible eventuality, including an American invasion of the UK.
... A report released on Wednesday by the British thinktank, Chatham House, argues that the Scottish vote on independence will have major consequences for the defence and national security of Scotland and the United Kingdom, whatever the outcome. It adds that a No vote would not end the matter or represent a return to the status quo. "The continuing basing of the United Kingdom's nuclear deterrent in Scotland will inevitably be revisited, with the future of the bases at Faslane and Coulport open to question. There may also be a questioning of the closure of the Portsmouth shipyard and the concentration of the surface ship building on the Clyde", says professor Andrew Dorman.
A former archbishop of Canterbury has lambasted the "marketisation of politics" in Britain, blaming US Presidential-style televised debates and analysis driven by opinion polls as factors in making Britons "worse people".
Writing in the New Statesman, Rowan Williams, who is a book reviewer for the magazine, cited these two political strands as the reason why society has become increasingly "mistrustful" and easily swayed by "populist manipulation"......
....Opinion polls have become similarly ubiquitous in the UK, with parties using daily polling to get a better handle on public reaction.
A former archbishop of Canterbury has lambasted the "marketisation of politics" in Britain, blaming US Presidential-style televised debates and analysis driven by opinion polls as factors in making Britons "worse people".
Writing in the New Statesman, Rowan Williams, who is a book reviewer for the magazine, cited these two political strands as the reason why society has become increasingly "mistrustful" and easily swayed by "populist manipulation"......
....Opinion polls have become similarly ubiquitous in the UK, with parties using daily polling to get a better handle on public reaction.
Euro elections: UK ties with US and Scotland also at stake
... Defence chiefs adopt a nonchalant air when it comes to the Scottish referendum, claiming that they have not bothered to draw up a contingency plan in the event of a Yes vote. If true, this would be very strange since, as I have mentioned before, the Ministry of Defence has a contingency plan for every possible eventuality, including an American invasion of the UK.
... A report released on Wednesday by the British thinktank, Chatham House, argues that the Scottish vote on independence will have major consequences for the defence and national security of Scotland and the United Kingdom, whatever the outcome. It adds that a No vote would not end the matter or represent a return to the status quo. "The continuing basing of the United Kingdom's nuclear deterrent in Scotland will inevitably be revisited, with the future of the bases at Faslane and Coulport open to question. There may also be a questioning of the closure of the Portsmouth shipyard and the concentration of the surface ship building on the Clyde", says professor Andrew Dorman.
Comments
People being defended on legal aid are at a massive disadvantage.
In a recent case involving a friend of mine, her lawyer never even bothered to turn up for the trial. The case being defended by the first lawyer that could be found, and with five minutes to appraise himself of the details.
Result, quick trial, guilty verdict, and a woman and her sons now facing eviction from their home.
http://youtu.be/041nXAAn714
When I was a trainee my boss used to talk about some good executory weather. How ironic if true.
1. Oldies are more culturally inclined to vote anyway.
2. They'll probably have all day to do so, so may catch a gap in the rain; workers are stuck with early morning or evening.
3. They may well have cast a postal vote well before now.
As an aside, it's notable that the majority of rain tomorrow looks like falling in the SW, Wales, the north of England, and Scotland. If so, that should depress turnout in the most Labour-friendly areas (and the SW). While it probably won't have an effect on the MEPs elected - fewer people voting in the NE has no effect on who's elected in London - it may matter as far as national shares are concerned.
I think it's very inconsiderate of the EU to make us wait till Sunday for the result! [stamp foot][shake fist]
That should fill some time till tommorow morning, though he only lasted 31 minutes of non stop talk.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-rand-paul-filibusters-another-obama-appointee-over-drone-memos/
Think of all the fun we will have dissecting the turnout figures till then though?
I would do 3 or 4 trials in the day, sometimes without even a chance to read the statements before the witness was taking the oath. The defence was generally slightly better prepared but would sometimes ask for a peek at my statements.
It is summary justice and it works because most crime is not that complicated. The sort of fraud cases Cyclefree is talking about are a completely different species.
The common good is also a frequently used concept in some university philosophy departments,notably UEA,where the Greens have a philosopher candidate in the East.
My arguments with the Greens is that they really do not appreciate class.
Irish opera singer on receiving end of sexist comments from critics:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2634882/Its-not-lady-sings-Opera-world-erupts-anger-sexist-comments-critics-calling-soprano-star-stocky-chubby.html
Which details do you wish?
Chris Deerin@chrisdeerin·12 mins
Oh @GeneralBoles, this is is your very best pic.twitter.com/nI3SN0k4V3
Also, note Anscombe's Quartet.
"The Australian Democrats, who, at their height, held the balance of power in the Australian Senate, also went into coalition with a right wing government and passed a policy into law that that had previously campaigned. Then they also started to lose, and kept losing. Today, they poll at just over 1% and have lost all national representation. Their third party replacement? The Australian Greens."
http://www.sarahmcculloch.com/opinion/2012/liberal-democrats-doomed-annihilation/
Perhaps she might become trapped in a revolving door and will remember the advice given to another great singer to go in sideways. But: Honey, I ain't got no sideways.''
"When I, good friends, was call'd to the bar
I'd an appetite fresh and hearty
But I was, as many young barristers are
An impecunious party
I'd a swallow-tail coat of a beautiful blue
And a brief which I bought of a booby
A couple of shirts, and a collar or two
And a ring that looked like a ruby
He'd a couple of shirts, and a collar or two
And a ring that look'd like a ruby
At Westminister Hall I danc'd a dance
Like a semi-despondent fury
For I tho't I never should hit on a chance
Of addressing a British jury
But I soon got tired of third-class journeys
And dinners of bread and water
So I fell in love with a rich attorney's
Elderly, ugly daughter ...."
Yup, not very complicated, and being mainly poor, they were probably guilty anyway.
In this case the prosecution had a special police expert to help the Judge form his opinion........and even I could have ripped his "evidence to shreds, It was a bit of a pity that her under informed lawyer just stood there blankly and accepted everything he said as fact.
Apparently having a couple of zip lock bags about the house (like the ones for fishing hooks/small jewelry) constitutes concrete evidence of drug dealing and not simple possession (her late husband was a (jeweler).
The only thing Farage is guilty of is being stupid and naïve enough to think that anything that could even possibly be construed as racist wouldn't be used against him and UKIP in the run up to the election. The question was a clear gotcha and the questioner incredibly hostile, the way that the normally supportive press and level headed posters have sided with a clearly idiotic question and questioner is disgraceful.
I'm not a UKIP supporter and as many of you know I wouldn't go into their camp because I do not believe they do enough to filter out ex BNP and EDL members from their rank and file, and their policies aren't very consistent. However, it is clear to me and many others that Farage is not racist. The useful idiots on the left who say anything like that should not be entertained and right leaning commenters and posters should not be giving them the time of day.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/21/Labour-stalwart-defects-to-ukip
People are joining UKIP from all sections of society and from all points on the map of the UK.
40,000+ by mid June at this rate.
I am somewhat puzzled that your average court case for a legal aid funded defendant is over in a flash, but that the same charge defended by a well paid lawyer takes far more time on average, with actual questions being asked of the prosecution witnesses.
14 grams of cannabis being drug dealing, over twice that weight of cocaine being "personal"
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/what-newhamcons-statement-says-and-doesnt-say.html
For PB Tories,know thine enemy.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/21/far-left-overtake-greens-first-time-new-european-parliament?CMP=twt_fd
I do wonder if UKIP are paying him.
1. Tried to hold on much longer than comparable bodies which mostly jumped ship the moment the CBI signed up with the electoral commission ...
2. Said they'd suspend membership for the referendum campaign only and then be full member again [despite the political importance of the CBI in the entire Scottish devolution and indy campaign]
3. Can't remember what happened when the CBI claimed it was all a mistake and they (the CBI) weren't really signing up with the Electoral Commission after all because it was a junior staffer who sgned it and never mind what the Director and the website had been saying ...
4. Ended up transferring membership to BBC Worldwide their commercial arm (but still providing the CBI with good fat money)
Slightly hazy about 3's relative timing, but the BBC don't come out as any more efficient, unbiased and decisive than the CBI!
Yes, that's it. The solution to UKIP is to get the Conservative modernisers to speak out more. Those same modernisers whom, through their sneering, patronising and sheer contempt for their own party members, has seen the voluntary party half in size, and UKIP rise to become the 3rd force in British politics.
Thereby also reinforcing all prejudices about the arrogant, superior and condescending attitude of the metropolitan elite!
Prat.
I sometimes wonder if the UKIP thing isn;t about voting in the kippers.
Its about voting out the D'anconas.
Survation's local elections poll was:
Con 23.9%, Lab 35.8, LD 12.9%, UKIP 17.7%, Green 3.1%.
(table 14, p.17)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
There are 4,242 seats up for re-election.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/may-2014-council-election-page.html
Assuming a perfect PR result we get:
Con 1,013 (Current 1,535)
Lab 1,518 (Current 1,763)
LD 547 (Current 691)
UKIP 751 (Current 31)
Green 132 (current 18)
Are the Conservatives in for a bad night?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10847747/SNP-and-Ukip-square-up-in-battle-for-Scotlands-sixth-European-seat.html
@TristramHuntMP: Low 2:2 speech from George Osborne at CBI: all dividing lines & tactics. Depressingly partisan #CBIdinner
East Midlands
UKIP 11/10
Conservatives 2/1
Labour 9/4
Liberal Democrats 150/1
Greens 250/1
East of England
UKIP 2/5
Conservatives 7/4
Labour 66/1
Liberal Democrats 200/1
Greens 250/1
London
Labour 1/4
Conservatives 7/2
UKIP 8/1
Greens 100/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
North East England
Labour 1/33
UKIP 6/1
Conservatives 50/1
Greens 200/1
Liberal Democrats 200/1
North West England
Labour 2/7
UKIP 3/1
Conservatives 11/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
Greens 200/1
Scotland
SNP 1/9
Labour 5/1
UKIP 125/1
Conservatives 125/1
Liberal Democrats 250/1
South East England
UKIP 8/11
Conservatives EVS
Greens 150/1
Labour 150/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
South West England
UKIP 3/10
Conservatives 12/5
Liberal Democrats 33/1
Labour 80/1
Greens 250/1
Wales
Labour 1/20
UKIP 8/1
Conservatives 25/1
Plaid Cymru 33/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
West Midlands
UKIP 4/11
Labour 11/4
Conservatives 8/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
Greens 200/1
Yorkshire and the Humber
Labour 8/15
UKIP 11/8
Conservatives 20/1
Liberal Democrats 150/1
Greens 200/1
Is there a 'votes cast' version of the 2010 local elections result anywhere?
Plus Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll comes out Saturday morning as well.
I've been indisposed for the last six hours, so if there have been any, can you let me know.
Thanks
Lib Dems 4/6
Greens 11/10
I'm not expecting any exit polls.
With the best will in the world, I just don't think there's any interest in conducting them for non General Election elections, they cost a lot of time and money.
Beth Rigby@BethRigby·28 mins
@TristramHuntMP yes but in marking stakes, audience would prob be giving Labour 2:2 rather than Osborne...
That said, even if they are allowed, I doubt they'd be conducted? Given the size of the constituencies, there'd be doubts about the methodologies - either new or at least untried on this scale - and that wouldn't be resolved until the results were in anyway.
- Campaign Bites: an evening of Blether Together telephone canvassing with pro-union volunteers from Helensburgh
... "The yes campaign are everywhere and if we don't get out there then people will think they won't bother voting because we've lost already."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2014/may/21/scottish-independence-referendum-campaign-bites-better-together-helensburgh
Electoral law is pretty simple.
Section 66 of the 1983 Representation of the People Act forbids "any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election" before polls close.
I read T Hunt's book as well. Well most of it.
All this book reading is a waste of time!!!!
Sorry for missing that, LIAMT. That would mean Saturday night?
In any case I admit the business reasons for doing so would be slim.
A former archbishop of Canterbury has lambasted the "marketisation of politics" in Britain, blaming US Presidential-style televised debates and analysis driven by opinion polls as factors in making Britons "worse people".
Writing in the New Statesman, Rowan Williams, who is a book reviewer for the magazine, cited these two political strands as the reason why society has become increasingly "mistrustful" and easily swayed by "populist manipulation"......
....Opinion polls have become similarly ubiquitous in the UK, with parties using daily polling to get a better handle on public reaction.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/21/rowan-williams-lambasts-marketisation-of-politics-with-opinion-polls-and-televised-debates_n_5367095.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
... Defence chiefs adopt a nonchalant air when it comes to the Scottish referendum, claiming that they have not bothered to draw up a contingency plan in the event of a Yes vote. If true, this would be very strange since, as I have mentioned before, the Ministry of Defence has a contingency plan for every possible eventuality, including an American invasion of the UK.
... A report released on Wednesday by the British thinktank, Chatham House, argues that the Scottish vote on independence will have major consequences for the defence and national security of Scotland and the United Kingdom, whatever the outcome. It adds that a No vote would not end the matter or represent a return to the status quo. "The continuing basing of the United Kingdom's nuclear deterrent in Scotland will inevitably be revisited, with the future of the bases at Faslane and Coulport open to question. There may also be a questioning of the closure of the Portsmouth shipyard and the concentration of the surface ship building on the Clyde", says professor Andrew Dorman.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/defence-and-security-blog/2014/may/21/us-eu-ukip-scotland
Which means results of the actual vote count will be Monday?
Well 2 definite, 1 is on hols but would be and 1 undecided Con/UKIP I think.
England's U17s football team has just become the European Champions.
On penalties.
Roll on Russia 2018!!