I do love the dry understatement all the way through the header!
The one reservation I have is:
Can a president actually pardon himself?
I remember a lot of debates about this, but I can’t remember what conclusion was drawn.
No conclusion. It's contentious piece of law, which presumably means it would end up in the Supreme Court if Trump ever decided to pull this trick. You would want the bet to be on Trump making the act of pardon rather than whether he actually is pardoned.
A further complication is if Trump resigns or is resigned and gets the VP to do the pardoning for him. The Nixon Manoeuvre has solid precedent. The bet presumably fails in that case?
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.
As she left she thought that she would hear no more.
However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.
Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
I did not hear a political element of the story.
It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
I read about it a few days ago, I presume, predictably for me, in the Guardian. The nub of the story was this bubble idea was a knee-jerk reaction to the lady's plight, and the bubble was introduced without debate or scrutiny. Like I said, two polar opposite interpretations are possible from the same story.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.
As she left she thought that she would hear no more.
However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.
Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
I did not hear a political element of the story.
It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
I read about it a few days ago, I presume, predictably for me, in the Guardian. The nub of the story was this bubble idea was a knee-jerk reaction to the lady's plight, and the bubble was introduced without debate or scrutiny. Like I said, two polar opposite interpretations are possible from the same story.
Word of the day - "Processology" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/19/rolls-royce-civil-service-has-found/ Rather than casting the net widely at the outset, recruiting across industry and universities, deigning to copy other countries, filling in quickly for our lack of institutional experience, the system promotes its own and sticks to processology.
It's in the OED so it's a perfectly cromulent word.
It's the perfect word to describe a bureaucracy way more interested in ticking the right boxes than actually getting the job done.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
This was very good and should have been a header. Now do the the 2024 UK GE in terms of Carry on Camping.
That's very kind thank you.
Thought about header but then could not have kicked off with "Donald Trump. What a jerk." And I needed to do that.
My mum took me to see Carry On Camping when I was a young boy. An uneasy experience.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.
As she left she thought that she would hear no more.
However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.
Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
I did not hear a political element of the story.
It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
I read about it a few days ago, I presume, predictably for me, in the Guardian. The nub of the story was this bubble idea was a knee-jerk reaction to the lady's plight, and the bubble was introduced without debate or scrutiny. Like I said, two polar opposite interpretations are possible from the same story.
In the Guardian....🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆
I thought I had pre-empted your strike with 'predictably for me'.
My point still stands even if I read it in The Morning Star.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
But what about Axel ? He's the key character as he's a real person:
Chuck Aspegren as Peter "Axel" Axelrod. Aspegren was not an actor; he was the foreman at an East Chicago steelworks visited early in pre-production by De Niro and Cimino. They were so impressed with him that they offered him the role. He was the second person to be cast in the film, after De Niro.
That is interesting. Did not know that. Be VERY useful to hear from him then.
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.
That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.
At least for the purposes of answering polls.
The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
Trump supporters have never struck me as particularly shy.
Perhaps some of them are. We just don't know. The polls look good. But polls can be wrong in times of extreme polarisation and change....
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.
As she left she thought that she would hear no more.
However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.
Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
I did not hear a political element of the story.
It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
I read about it a few days ago, I presume, predictably for me, in the Guardian. The nub of the story was this bubble idea was a knee-jerk reaction to the lady's plight, and the bubble was introduced without debate or scrutiny. Like I said, two polar opposite interpretations are possible from the same story.
But a good result anyway
It was a good decision if two months too late. Cummings isnt all bad by any means, in the right structure he might even be very good - the problem is in his current role everything runs through him which in turn means the cabinet have been chosen based on a requirement of being spineless yes men and women.
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
True. But is she fit to be POTUS? Is she bulletproof on that? There is a decent enough chance that she will need to take over during a first Biden term that there will be a hell of a focus on 'fitness for the highest office'.
I know that's a sick joke seeing as the most unsuitable American who ever lived is currently in the Oval office, but that's not how it works.
Word of the day - "Processology" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/19/rolls-royce-civil-service-has-found/ Rather than casting the net widely at the outset, recruiting across industry and universities, deigning to copy other countries, filling in quickly for our lack of institutional experience, the system promotes its own and sticks to processology.
It's in the OED so it's a perfectly cromulent word.
A favourite was discussing modern IT development practices with someone from the cabinet office a few years ago.
You would have thought I was suggesting heresy multiplied by murder.
I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
Oh god that is a mood killer. Please may you be wrong. But seriously, yes of course it's possible. Really can't see it though. This is a bizarre experiment which has failed and I think enough truth can now be seen by enough people such that he is unelectable a 2nd time.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
No as Heath also lost 3 of the other elections he fought, 1970 was his only win
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Brilliant stuff, Kinabalu. Entirely persuasive. Might I suggest for a future analysis, you could talk us through the next London Assembly elections through the prism of Love Actually?
I suggest using the deer hunter one as a thread header first.
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
True. But is she fit to be POTUS? Is she bulletproof on that? There is a decent enough chance that she will need to take over during a first Biden term that there will be a hell of a focus on 'fitness for the highest office'.
I know that's a sick joke seeing as the most unsuitable American who ever lived is currently in the Oval office, but that's not how it works.
Val Demings is obscure and something of a blank canvas. AFAIK she came to politics relatively late in life after a career in the Orlando police force and so she hasn't made her mark. Point is, Demings is everything Kemala Harris is not - in a good way for Demings. Harris is the daughter of a Stanford professor and Indian doctor instead of a janitor and house cleaner, she is a lawyer not a police officer and she represents the psephologically uninteresting state of California.
A further complication is if Trump resigns or is resigned and gets the VP to do the pardoning for him. The Nixon Manoeuvre has solid precedent. The bet presumably fails in that case?
I've got a bet on Trump making it to the end of the term which due to denominating it in cybercoins is now worth a lot more than it was when I made it, and if Trump survives both impeachment and plague then pulls that one at the last minute I will be exceedingly miffed.
Some of you are confusing pride with honour. He has a lot of pride insofar as his ego thinks he's the greatest - and his whole body language indicates that he believes that other people think THEY are really lucky and successful to be in his presence (something I noticed about him many years before he ran for president) - but he has no honour. He won't care a monkey's that the non-wrestling fan part of the citizenry notices that a pardon logically implies the acceptance of guilt. There are only about a million tweets, practically every speech or press conference he has ever given, and numerous business dealings to show that he doesn't give a damn about whether other people think he's being logical or not. "I pardon myself. I didn't do anything. And everyone who has a problem with that is fake and dirt."
But a federal pardon won't solve the problem of prosecutions in state courts.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
No as Heath also lost 3 of the other elections he fought, 1970 was his only win
So if Boris were to fight another and lose would that make him worse than May as she fought one and won it (albeit not outright)?
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
True. But is she fit to be POTUS? Is she bulletproof on that? There is a decent enough chance that she will need to take over during a first Biden term that there will be a hell of a focus on 'fitness for the highest office'.
I know that's a sick joke seeing as the most unsuitable American who ever lived is currently in the Oval office, but that's not how it works.
Val Demings is obscure and something of a blank canvas. AFAIK she came to politics relatively late in life after a career in the Orlando police force and so she hasn't made her mark. Point is, Demings is everything Kemala Harris is not - in a good way for Demings. Harris is the daughter of a Stanford professor and Indian doctor instead of a janitor and house cleaner, she is a lawyer not a police officer and she represents the psephologically uninteresting state of California.
Well, I'm not going to argue too much, as I'm mildly red on Kemala and mildly green on Val Demings!
he won in 2016 despite polling almost 3m fewer votes......... I repeat, if you don't know how the US electoral system works, you're just embarrassing yourself
I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
Oh god that is a mood killer. Please may you be wrong. But seriously, yes of course it's possible. Really can't see it though. This is a bizarre experiment which has failed and I think enough truth can now be seen by enough people such that he is unelectable a 2nd time.
The thing about Groundhog day is in the end the cycle is broken as lessons were learned and everyone is happy, so it may not be a mood killer .
“ You’re Starting to Get Vacation Travelers Who Are Just Willing to Risk It.” https://slate.com/comments/human-interest/2020/06/flight-attendant-interview-flying-right-now-covid.html ... We were down 85 percent, maybe 90 percent, in terms of passenger numbers in April. We are up to 55 percent booked for July. When you go to DFW Airport, it looks like a normal day, because of the way they’re routing flights. I was on reserve last month, and I did not fly for the entire month because there were so few flights. But the last four days of May, I flew all four days, and every single one of my flights was full. So the end of May was when it started to tick back up. We’ll see what happens a month from now [if] people are getting sick again....
he won in 2016 despite polling almost 3m fewer votes......... I repeat, if you don't know how the US electoral system works, you're just embarrassing yourself
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.
I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.
Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.
I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
Val Demings is the Central Casting selection for VP pick. She was a career police officer who is black, thus neatly bridging both sides of the current cultural divide and would be bullet-proof for any culture wars Trump might unleash. She is unimpeachably middle-class (American definition) in a way that whites as well as blacks can relate to. She represents a district in Florida -the key state for Biden. If he wins Florida, he wins America.
True. But is she fit to be POTUS? Is she bulletproof on that? There is a decent enough chance that she will need to take over during a first Biden term that there will be a hell of a focus on 'fitness for the highest office'.
I know that's a sick joke seeing as the most unsuitable American who ever lived is currently in the Oval office, but that's not how it works.
Val Demings is obscure and something of a blank canvas. AFAIK she came to politics relatively late in life after a career in the Orlando police force and so she hasn't made her mark. Point is, Demings is everything Kemala Harris is not - in a good way for Demings. Harris is the daughter of a Stanford professor and Indian doctor instead of a janitor and house cleaner, she is a lawyer not a police officer and she represents the psephologically uninteresting state of California.
Well, I'm not going to argue too much, as I'm mildly red on Kemala and mildly green on Val Demings!
I don't argue either. Demings may be totally out of contention, but I see a very strong political case for her in the context of the pitch Biden is making to the American electorate. Harris not so much, but I guess Biden would get a known political operator with her. And it's not necessarily limited to those two.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
No as Heath also lost 3 of the other elections he fought, 1970 was his only win
So if Boris were to fight another and lose would that make him worse than May as she fought one and won it (albeit not outright)?
Even if Starmer won a majority unless he won a majority of over 80 Boris would still be better than May as May never won a majority, Boris did last year.
In electoral terms the best Tory leaders since WW2 are Thatcher, Macmillan, Boris, Eden, Cameron, Major, Heath, Churchill, May, Home, then Howard, IDS and Hague
“ You’re Starting to Get Vacation Travelers Who Are Just Willing to Risk It.” https://slate.com/comments/human-interest/2020/06/flight-attendant-interview-flying-right-now-covid.html ... We were down 85 percent, maybe 90 percent, in terms of passenger numbers in April. We are up to 55 percent booked for July. When you go to DFW Airport, it looks like a normal day, because of the way they’re routing flights. I was on reserve last month, and I did not fly for the entire month because there were so few flights. But the last four days of May, I flew all four days, and every single one of my flights was full. So the end of May was when it started to tick back up. We’ll see what happens a month from now [if] people are getting sick again....
Just so sad that Trump has led the US into the sewer
“ You’re Starting to Get Vacation Travelers Who Are Just Willing to Risk It.” https://slate.com/comments/human-interest/2020/06/flight-attendant-interview-flying-right-now-covid.html ... We were down 85 percent, maybe 90 percent, in terms of passenger numbers in April. We are up to 55 percent booked for July. When you go to DFW Airport, it looks like a normal day, because of the way they’re routing flights. I was on reserve last month, and I did not fly for the entire month because there were so few flights. But the last four days of May, I flew all four days, and every single one of my flights was full. So the end of May was when it started to tick back up. We’ll see what happens a month from now [if] people are getting sick again....
The flight routing thing in the US is potentially a big issue - with so many flights cancelled, people are getting routes between cities with two or even three intermediate stops, and therefore mixing with many more people than would usually be the case.
Few give Trump a good chance of beating Biden, but what if Trump doesn't run? A Republican candidate who came across as affable, had no hint of any grey hair, and didn't put so many people's backs up, would be in a much stronger position.
In the VP race in 2012, Joe Biden "alphaed" Paul Ryan in a debate. But their ages were 69-42 then. Now they're 77-50, and Biden is forced to tell voters that if he becomes President his own VP will be "ready from day one". How would he fare against Ryan in 2020?
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.
That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.
At least for the purposes of answering polls.
The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
I think there will be shy Trump voters because the intention to vote for him is far more of a "guilty secret" than it would have been in 2016. People voting for him this time are doing it despite 4 years of hard evidence of what he is.
However, I think he will lose a big chunk of those who went with him in 2016 on an "Ok, what the hell, give him a shot" basis, which will swamp everything and drive the result. And given he just scraped it last time with a freakshly efficient EC distribution, to me it is all pointing to a very clear Biden win in Nov.
I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.
It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.
Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.
Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
Dan McCrum's reports on this have been outstanding. BaFin are pretty clueless and toothless, the ACPR are miles better, even if they have one rule for French-owned entitites and another rule for the rest.
But that's the exact attitude that has led to this gigantic fraud not being investigated. If this was a branch of a UK bank you can bet BaFin would have taken the allegations seriously. It's about BaFin protecting their own from the FT who were seen as a hostile City based actor trying to tear down a German fintech champion, of which there are few.
I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.
It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.
Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.
Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
Rubbish, on that basis it has to go to Major - 14,093,007 votes.
He'll pardon himself if he loses. Then when the pack come for him anyway he'll keep repeating "Presidential. Pardon." In that weird drawn out way he speaks with the sideways hand movements. And then they'll arrest him anyway and let the courts decide if his pardoning of himself for his egregious malfeasance in office is worth anything
I’m not convinced they will.
I think there may be a tone of “the voters have spoken, he’s paid the price”. I’m not sure they want the whole partisan farrago of chasing a former president.
(They’ll set the IRS on him of course, but that’s just for shits and giggles)
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.
That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.
At least for the purposes of answering polls.
The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
I think there will be shy Trump voters because the intention to vote for him is far more of a "guilty secret" than it would have been in 2016. People voting for him this time are doing it despite 4 years of hard evidence of what he is.
However, I think he will lose a big chunk of those who went with him in 2016 on an "Ok, what the hell, give him a shot" basis, which will swamp everything and drive the result. And given he just scraped it last time with a freakshly efficient EC distribution, to me it is all pointing to a very clear Biden win in Nov.
We're in June. What would you advise the Republican National Committee to do in these circumstances?
Incidentally, under the 25th amendment's "such other body as Congress may by law provide" rule, only three Republican senators plus Mike Pence would be needed to remove Trump from office temporarily - and anyone who thinks it would only be "temporary" might like to take a look at this photo of Mikhail Gorbachev when he "returned to the helm" on 21 August 1991:
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
Rubbish, on that basis it has to go to Major - 14,093,007 votes.
Word of the day - "Processology" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/19/rolls-royce-civil-service-has-found/ Rather than casting the net widely at the outset, recruiting across industry and universities, deigning to copy other countries, filling in quickly for our lack of institutional experience, the system promotes its own and sticks to processology.
It's in the OED so it's a perfectly cromulent word.
A favourite was discussing modern IT development practices with someone from the cabinet office a few years ago.
You would have thought I was suggesting heresy multiplied by murder.
"The largest hospital trust in England has become the first to declare it has no Covid-19 patients requiring treatment in intensive care.
Dr David Rosser, who heads the University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB), said there were signs that infected patients “don’t seem as sick, on average, as they were”. "
(Telegraph)
I wonder if this is simply because they are taking patients at an earlier stage or who are less seriously affected, noiw the overall numbers have gone down? Is that allowed for?
Few give Trump a good chance of beating Biden, but what if Trump doesn't run? A Republican candidate who came across as affable, had no hint of any grey hair, and didn't put so many people's backs up, would be in a much stronger position.
In the VP race in 2012, Joe Biden "alphaed" Paul Ryan in a debate. But their ages were 69-42 then. Now they're 77-50, and Biden is forced to tell voters that if he becomes President his own VP will be "ready from day one". How would he fare against Ryan in 2020?
If Trump doesn't run then it's entirely possible a new candidate would struggle to hold together the GOP base, particularly if Trump appeared to have been forced out at all. If he'd announced last year he wasn't running and endorsed someone that's one thing, but now replacing him would invite problems with fighting an election while transitioning the party base from the High Priest of Trumpism to someone else.
A good illustration of the difference between public and private sector approaches: one produces a medical device in record time from a standing start, the other produces an app that can't work with the most popular type of phone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij3g8kscdeA
I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
Oh god that is a mood killer. Please may you be wrong. But seriously, yes of course it's possible. Really can't see it though. This is a bizarre experiment which has failed and I think enough truth can now be seen by enough people such that he is unelectable a 2nd time.
The thing about Groundhog day is in the end the cycle is broken as lessons were learned and everyone is happy, so it may not be a mood killer .
Right. That is more upbeat. Groundhog Day is a film high on my 'have not seen and really must' list. Top spot currently held by Blade Runner.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
He was with Meryl Streep John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
he won in 2016 despite polling almost 3m fewer votes......... I repeat, if you don't know how the US electoral system works, you're just embarrassing yourself
I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.
It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.
Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.
Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
Dan McCrum's reports on this have been outstanding. BaFin are pretty clueless and toothless, the ACPR are miles better, even if they have one rule for French-owned entitites and another rule for the rest.
But that's the exact attitude that has led to this gigantic fraud not being investigated. If this was a branch of a UK bank you can bet BaFin would have taken the allegations seriously. It's about BaFin protecting their own from the FT who were seen as a hostile City based actor trying to tear down a German fintech champion, of which there are few.
I agree, the point is that the French would not let a French Wirecard get to that stage.
Few give Trump a good chance of beating Biden, but what if Trump doesn't run? A Republican candidate who came across as affable, had no hint of any grey hair, and didn't put so many people's backs up, would be in a much stronger position.
In the VP race in 2012, Joe Biden "alphaed" Paul Ryan in a debate. But their ages were 69-42 then. Now they're 77-50, and Biden is forced to tell voters that if he becomes President his own VP will be "ready from day one". How would he fare against Ryan in 2020?
If Trump doesn't run then it's entirely possible a new candidate would struggle to hold together the GOP base, particularly if Trump appeared to have been forced out at all. If he'd announced last year he wasn't running and endorsed someone that's one thing, but now replacing him would invite problems with fighting an election while transitioning the party base from the High Priest of Trumpism to someone else.
Indeed Trump either wins setting up Pence for 2024 or he loses and Romney or Haley can try and reform the party ahead of a run in 2024.
Replacing Trump now would lead to more problems than solutions and he has a big majority of convention delegates anyway
I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.
It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.
Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.
Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
Dan McCrum's reports on this have been outstanding. BaFin are pretty clueless and toothless, the ACPR are miles better, even if they have one rule for French-owned entitites and another rule for the rest.
But that's the exact attitude that has led to this gigantic fraud not being investigated. If this was a branch of a UK bank you can bet BaFin would have taken the allegations seriously. It's about BaFin protecting their own from the FT who were seen as a hostile City based actor trying to tear down a German fintech champion, of which there are few.
I agree, the point is that the French would not let a French Wirecard get to that stage.
Yes, I agree with that. Though, I'm not sure if The Times discovered fraud at a French bank the French would take them seriously. I'd hope they would.
I think it's likely Biden wins this year (got a bet on it) and Starmer becomes PM in 2024.
2024 is the year Biden would be up for re election or Pence would be running for Trump's 3rd term, that is how far away the next UK general election is, plenty can happen by then
I think it's likely Biden wins this year (got a bet on it) and Starmer becomes PM in 2024.
Labour has a huge mountain to climb and he may not (probably won't) be facing Boris. 2024 is a long time away and so far Starmer is benefiting from not being Corbyn but not much else. Most people I know have got little to no impression of what he stands for, It feels a bit likes Ed Miliband.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.
That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.
At least for the purposes of answering polls.
The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
I think there will be shy Trump voters because the intention to vote for him is far more of a "guilty secret" than it would have been in 2016. People voting for him this time are doing it despite 4 years of hard evidence of what he is.
However, I think he will lose a big chunk of those who went with him in 2016 on an "Ok, what the hell, give him a shot" basis, which will swamp everything and drive the result. And given he just scraped it last time with a freakshly efficient EC distribution, to me it is all pointing to a very clear Biden win in Nov.
We're in June. What would you advise the Republican National Committee to do in these circumstances?
Incidentally, under the 25th amendment's "such other body as Congress may by law provide" rule, only three Republican senators plus Mike Pence would be needed to remove Trump from office temporarily - and anyone who thinks it would only be "temporary" might like to take a look at this photo of Mikhail Gorbachev when he "returned to the helm" on 21 August 1991:
Seems too late to replace him now. They've drunk the kool aid. It's not long since they were en bloc jury rigging to save him from removal by impeachment. Not sure where the Republicans go from here. Perhaps try and pretend it all just never happened?
I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.
It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.
Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.
Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
Dan McCrum's reports on this have been outstanding. BaFin are pretty clueless and toothless, the ACPR are miles better, even if they have one rule for French-owned entitites and another rule for the rest.
But that's the exact attitude that has led to this gigantic fraud not being investigated. If this was a branch of a UK bank you can bet BaFin would have taken the allegations seriously. It's about BaFin protecting their own from the FT who were seen as a hostile City based actor trying to tear down a German fintech champion, of which there are few.
I agree, the point is that the French would not let a French Wirecard get to that stage.
The German financial sector is...interesting.
One German private bank actually classifies a number of German financial outfits, including DB, as do-not-touch.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
He was with Meryl Streep John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
I think it's likely Biden wins this year (got a bet on it) and Starmer becomes PM in 2024.
Labour has a huge mountain to climb and he may not (probably won't) be facing Boris. 2024 is a long time away and so far Starmer is benefiting from not being Corbyn but not much else. Most people I know have got little to no impression of what he stands for, It feels a bit likes Ed Miliband.
For some context, we are now roughly (within a week or two) at the halfway point between the Brexit referendum and the scheduled 2024 election. If a week is a long time in politics, four years is an eternity.
I think it's likely Biden wins this year (got a bet on it) and Starmer becomes PM in 2024.
Labour has a huge mountain to climb and he may not (probably won't) be facing Boris. 2024 is a long time away and so far Starmer is benefiting from not being Corbyn but not much else. Most people I know have got little to no impression of what he stands for, It feels a bit likes Ed Miliband.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
He was with Meryl Streep John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
I think it's likely Biden wins this year (got a bet on it) and Starmer becomes PM in 2024.
Labour has a huge mountain to climb and he may not (probably won't) be facing Boris. 2024 is a long time away and so far Starmer is benefiting from not being Corbyn but not much else. Most people I know have got little to no impression of what he stands for, It feels a bit likes Ed Miliband.
I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
Oh god that is a mood killer. Please may you be wrong. But seriously, yes of course it's possible. Really can't see it though. This is a bizarre experiment which has failed and I think enough truth can now be seen by enough people such that he is unelectable a 2nd time.
The thing about Groundhog day is in the end the cycle is broken as lessons were learned and everyone is happy, so it may not be a mood killer .
Right. That is more upbeat. Groundhog Day is a film high on my 'have not seen and really must' list. Top spot currently held by Blade Runner.
Groundhog day is a bit saccharine in places - but part of it's genius is how the main character tries smart and dumb things. In a way that makes complete sense with the character and the environment he finds himself in.
Few give Trump a good chance of beating Biden, but what if Trump doesn't run? A Republican candidate who came across as affable, had no hint of any grey hair, and didn't put so many people's backs up, would be in a much stronger position.
In the VP race in 2012, Joe Biden "alphaed" Paul Ryan in a debate. But their ages were 69-42 then. Now they're 77-50, and Biden is forced to tell voters that if he becomes President his own VP will be "ready from day one". How would he fare against Ryan in 2020?
If Trump doesn't run then it's entirely possible a new candidate would struggle to hold together the GOP base, particularly if Trump appeared to have been forced out at all. If he'd announced last year he wasn't running and endorsed someone that's one thing, but now replacing him would invite problems with fighting an election while transitioning the party base from the High Priest of Trumpism to someone else.
Indeed Trump either wins setting up Pence for 2024 or he loses and Romney or Haley can try and reform the party ahead of a run in 2024.
Replacing Trump now would lead to more problems than solutions and he has a big majority of convention delegates anyway
Trump doesn't give a stuff about the Republican Party, but his narcissism would prevent him from dropping out now.
Remember that he once sought adoption by the Democrat Party but was shown the door. That probably helps to fire his animus towards them, but that is not to say that he loves the Republican Party. If he did, he wouldn't risk putting it out of office for a generation, which is certainly a possibility as things stand.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
YES FULL OF PONCY WANKERS
De Niro and Walken are "poncy wankers" in that brutal russian roulette scene?
I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
Oh god that is a mood killer. Please may you be wrong. But seriously, yes of course it's possible. Really can't see it though. This is a bizarre experiment which has failed and I think enough truth can now be seen by enough people such that he is unelectable a 2nd time.
The thing about Groundhog day is in the end the cycle is broken as lessons were learned and everyone is happy, so it may not be a mood killer .
Right. That is more upbeat. Groundhog Day is a film high on my 'have not seen and really must' list. Top spot currently held by Blade Runner.
Groundhog day is a bit saccharine in places - but part of it's genius is how the main character tries smart and dumb things. In a way that makes complete sense with the character and the environment he finds himself in.
I will definitely see it one day. Think I'm bound to like it.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
He was with Meryl Streep John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
He was Meryl Streep in real life too
"With" her, I think you mean!
Or do you?
I meant with her, yes!
- Relief. Thought I might have missed a BIG story.
Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.
But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
Therefore he’s empirically the best Tory leader of the last 50 years?
Rubbish, on that basis it has to go to Major - 14,093,007 votes.
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
YES FULL OF PONCY WANKERS
De Niro and Walken are "poncy wankers" in that brutal russian roulette scene?
That is harsh beyond belief, Malcolm.
If De Niro had drunk some turnip juice, before maniacally laughing - he'd have been Malcolm's hero....
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
YES FULL OF PONCY WANKERS
De Niro and Walken are "poncy wankers" in that brutal russian roulette scene?
That is harsh beyond belief, Malcolm.
Overpaid as well, De Niro has morphed into an idiot. Unless he is playing himself he is useless, a one trick pony and never liked the look of Walken, he looked a wrong un. PS: no prisoners today , just the truth
Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.
So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.
It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.
In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.
So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.
Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.
Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.
Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.
Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets.
He was with Meryl Streep John Cazale is playing Fredo in the Deer Hunter?
Godfather. Such an iconic role that I always know him as Fredo.
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
He was Meryl Streep in real life too
"With" her, I think you mean!
Or do you?
I meant with her, yes!
- Relief. Thought I might have missed a BIG story.
I was going to comment on how awesome the makeup was to transform him...
Comments
A further complication is if Trump resigns or is resigned and gets the VP to do the pardoning for him. The Nixon Manoeuvre has solid precedent. The bet presumably fails in that case?
Has the Guardian admitted it was founded on the profits of the slave trade yet
Thought about header but then could not have kicked off with "Donald Trump. What a jerk." And I needed to do that.
My mum took me to see Carry On Camping when I was a young boy. An uneasy experience.
My point still stands even if I read it in The Morning Star.
I know that's a sick joke seeing as the most unsuitable American who ever lived is currently in the Oval office, but that's not how it works.
You would have thought I was suggesting heresy multiplied by murder.
https://youtu.be/AmYjIsw6u7U
But a federal pardon won't solve the problem of prosecutions in state courts.
He's in a bit of a tight spot.
https://order-order.com/2020/06/19/boss-of-nhsx-should-be-fired-over-app-fiasco/?utm_source=Guy+Fawkes'+Blog+List&utm_campaign=8b04b8dd3d-Mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_547885726c-8b04b8dd3d-225754973
The App has been a shambles all based on 'not invented here' nonsense.
https://twitter.com/policescotland/status/1274280786762641410?s=20
https://twitter.com/HeartScotNews/status/1274266372118384640?s=20
“ You’re Starting to Get Vacation Travelers Who Are Just Willing to Risk It.”
https://slate.com/comments/human-interest/2020/06/flight-attendant-interview-flying-right-now-covid.html
... We were down 85 percent, maybe 90 percent, in terms of passenger numbers in April. We are up to 55 percent booked for July. When you go to DFW Airport, it looks like a normal day, because of the way they’re routing flights.
I was on reserve last month, and I did not fly for the entire month because there were so few flights. But the last four days of May, I flew all four days, and every single one of my flights was full. So the end of May was when it started to tick back up. We’ll see what happens a month from now [if] people are getting sick again....
In electoral terms the best Tory leaders since WW2 are Thatcher, Macmillan, Boris, Eden, Cameron, Major, Heath, Churchill, May, Home, then Howard, IDS and Hague
It’s a HOOGLY smart move by the smartest guy in town to protect himself.
In the VP race in 2012, Joe Biden "alphaed" Paul Ryan in a debate. But their ages were 69-42 then. Now they're 77-50, and Biden is forced to tell voters that if he becomes President his own VP will be "ready from day one". How would he fare against Ryan in 2020?
Both parties are culpable
However, I think he will lose a big chunk of those who went with him in 2016 on an "Ok, what the hell, give him a shot" basis, which will swamp everything and drive the result. And given he just scraped it last time with a freakshly efficient EC distribution, to me it is all pointing to a very clear Biden win in Nov.
But you know that, don’t you Carsten
Interesting aside. He sadly died of lung cancer aged just 42 the year after filming the Deer Hunter. And in the film the character has quite a persistent little cough. You wouldn't normally notice - they don't make it part of his character - but knowing his fate you can't help it and it is rather poignant.
I think there may be a tone of “the voters have spoken, he’s paid the price”. I’m not sure they want the whole partisan farrago of chasing a former president.
(They’ll set the IRS on him of course, but that’s just for shits and giggles)
Incidentally, under the 25th amendment's "such other body as Congress may by law provide" rule, only three Republican senators plus Mike Pence would be needed to remove Trump from office temporarily - and anyone who thinks it would only be "temporary" might like to take a look at this photo of Mikhail Gorbachev when he "returned to the helm" on 21 August 1991:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1274278137581522944?s=20
Just started watching it now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij3g8kscdeA
Replacing Trump now would lead to more problems than solutions and he has a big majority of convention delegates anyway
You love to see it
Layla Moran is a gift to Labour.
One German private bank actually classifies a number of German financial outfits, including DB, as do-not-touch.
Or do you?
Nor does be need to
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1274003884286099462?s=20
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1274005230418608128?s=20
I'm delighted you didn't and don't even think about leaving PB. Every voice is important here. Hang around and give as good as you get.
Remember that he once sought adoption by the Democrat Party but was shown the door. That probably helps to fire his animus towards them, but that is not to say that he loves the Republican Party. If he did, he wouldn't risk putting it out of office for a generation, which is certainly a possibility as things stand.
That is harsh beyond belief, Malcolm.
PS: no prisoners today , just the truth