What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us, An' foolish notion"
He practised houghmagandie.
The reverse ferret from the Nationalists when this cancer finally starts targeting things they care about will be a wonder to behold.
Didn't you got the Better Together memo? Rab was a BIG supporter of the Union. Apparently.
In any case , we can only hope that we 'Nationalists' will avoid the pant shitting hysteria displayed by the 'Nationalists' on here about the cancer threatening their (sic) culture.
Do you think the statue defiling and general disorder are worse down south? Remember what the BBC used to call the UK Riots till they had to change it to the 'English Riots' as there was no trouble in Wales, NI or Scotland, and it was affecting the tourist industry? The Nirish were particularly scathing as I recall.
Looks that way to me. Sometimes I get annoyed at Scots phlegmatism, other times it seems much preferable.
Were you around here when the riots kicked off? The outrage when Salmond publicly pointed out that they were in fact English riots was something to behold, no doubt inflamed by the point that it was unarguably true.
No, Iit was before my time on PB. But I can well believe it. It certainly pointed to a different attitude in the four polities. And that would have been unfotgivable.
As for BLM, the demos in Edinburgh and Glasgow were AFAIK pretty quiet - and, at least in Holyrood Park, well socially distanced, and no statues did any dives.
As for Dundas H. in St Andrew Square, trying to get at him would be reminiscent of a dachshund yapping at a cat up a tree ...
I bow to nobody in my admiration for Scottish phlegmatism, but do you not think that numbers (or lack of) of people, especially from BAME communities, has any part to play here?
According to the last census Glasgow is 88% white, Bristol 84%, so I wouldn't say a huge difference in those particular examples. I'd imagine there are many more descendants of slaves in the latter of course which would have a bearing.
Are there many West Indian Scots? I thought the BAME minorities in Scotland were mostly Asian?
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
Can’t edit my post. Fewer than 100 IN THE TEST GROUP.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us, An' foolish notion"
He practised houghmagandie.
The reverse ferret from the Nationalists when this cancer finally starts targeting things they care about will be a wonder to behold.
Didn't you got the Better Together memo? Rab was a BIG supporter of the Union. Apparently.
In any case , we can only hope that we 'Nationalists' will avoid the pant shitting hysteria displayed by the 'Nationalists' on here about the cancer threatening their (sic) culture.
Do you think the statue defiling and general disorder are worse down south? Remember what the BBC used to call the UK Riots till they had to change it to the 'English Riots' as there was no trouble in Wales, NI or Scotland, and it was affecting the tourist industry? The Nirish were particularly scathing as I recall.
Looks that way to me. Sometimes I get annoyed at Scots phlegmatism, other times it seems much preferable.
Were you around here when the riots kicked off? The outrage when Salmond publicly pointed out that they were in fact English riots was something to behold, no doubt inflamed by the point that it was unarguably true.
No, Iit was before my time on PB. But I can well believe it. It certainly pointed to a different attitude in the four polities. And that would have been unfotgivable.
As for BLM, the demos in Edinburgh and Glasgow were AFAIK pretty quiet - and, at least in Holyrood Park, well socially distanced, and no statues did any dives.
As for Dundas H. in St Andrew Square, trying to get at him would be reminiscent of a dachshund yapping at a cat up a tree ...
I bow to nobody in my admiration for Scottish phlegmatism, but do you not think that numbers (or lack of) of people, especially from BAME communities, has any part to play here?
According to the last census Glasgow is 88% white, Bristol 84%, so I wouldn't say a huge difference in those particular examples. I'd imagine there are many more descendants of slaves in the latter of course which would have a bearing.
Are there many West Indian Scots? I thought the BAME minorities in Scotland were mostly Asian?
Sure, more Asian Glaswegians than Bristolians for example. I was just replying to the general point about BAME communities.
I've finally found someone who's started to put me off Brexit... @Philip_Thompson
I seem to have associated myself with someone so pedantic, dogmatic and ideological it's made me wonder what business I had ever being on the same side as him in the first place.
Which is funny because I was on the opposite side and you won me over. So what does that say?
My tuppence worth -
I feel the opposite to @Casino_Royale about your performance on this issue of BLM and statues and Floyd.
It has been (for me) your finest PB hour and by a long chalk too. Nor will I cheapen this by a snide rider about "low bar" or anything of that ilk.
Your posts have been principled, thoughtful, punchy where required, and on the right side of history.
One can hardly recognize the man who just a couple of weeks ago was so blindly supportive of everything to do with Boris Johnson that he considered his frame to be "almost all muscle".
And just to cap it off I gather that your favourite 'social liberal', Priti Patel, knocked it out of the park on racism in the House yesterday.
The only way is down from here, Philip.
PT is a liberal and CR is a conservative. Extreme liberals are always up for a bit of disruption.
No PT is a contrarian, and, sorry to be harsh, sadly not very good at it. He needs to be encouraged to get out a bit more.
I`d estimate that libertarians comprise maybe only 5% of the population, so if you are that way inclined being a libertarian and being contrarian is likely to amount to the same thing.
(Hence Spiked.)
Most contrarians I have come across just enjoy being controversial. It might be described as juvenile or even attention seeking. Many people are like this in their late teens, in an attempt to appear clever, though often failing in their objective, and some never grow out of it. IMO Corbyn fell into this camp. He thought it made him look intellectual when clearly the poor man was really not very bright.
That reminds me of the Monty Python Argument Clinic sketch... "No it doesn't"...
Just out of interest, has there been any further proper work done on whether having had the virus confers immunity? The reason I ask is I am having my annual blood sugar test tomorrow and have been told that if I want it they can do an antibody test at the same time. I am going to say yes, partly from a sense of morbid curiosity but also of course because I am hoping that when and if they say it confers immunity, I will feel a lot happier about moving around in company without fear of passing anything on.
You should definitely get the antibody test.
If, of course, it does not confer (even partial) immunity, then we're all f*cked anyway, as there won't be a vaccine under these circumstances.
Although the US problems started a couple of weeks after the UK, which started a couple of weeks after Italy. And case rates are at record levels in a couple of US states already, so let's come back and check excess death numbers in a few months shall we.
Single sharing flatmates can't have anyone over. They're not a one person household. Unless their partners are on their own.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Describing it in terms of sitcom groups is probably a very good way of explaining things.
Notice that Chandler and Ross cockblock each other. In a weird 2020 version of the prisoner's dilemma, both would be better placed if they moved out and lived on their own.
That's not true: they're only blocked from heterosexual sex.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Okay, you have the data. Do this calculation.
Proportion of total number of 30-year-old healthy UK males with no pre-existing conditions that have been hospitalised by coronavirus.
I dare say the figure you will end up will be rather small.
Can you be a little more precise? Born around 672; died 735.
Occupation: Monk, historian, seer who illuminated the Dark Ages.
Motto: Where there's a quill, there's a way.
Appearance: Not on a plinth
Should he be? His admirers reckon so: 20,000 have signed a petition calling for his statue to be erected on the vacant plinth in Trafalgar Square.
Sounds better than the usual disintegrating shark or dirty pair of knickers, so what's the problem? The plinth is now the responsibility of London's mayor, and the Venerable Ken thinks Bede's majestic Ecclesiastical History of the English People was politically incorrect.
Insufficient space devoted to the Irish potato famine? Don't be silly. The learned Livingstone, who says he read Bede about 30 years ago, objects to Bede's history being so preoccupied with Christianity. "Bede is really the church's airbrushed version of British history, because he ignores our pagan past."
Almost of these analyses fail to account for the risks of people reporting to the NHS in the first place.
A huge number of 30-year-old healthy non-comorbid males either won’t catch the virus, or with have no or so few symptoms they either a) don’t even know they have it or b) shrug it off.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
Good news: the number of recoveries has reached 50% of total cases, although the real figure will be higher because some countries, like the UK, don't give any recovery figures.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
"Ant and Dec 'sorry' for impersonating people of colour on Saturday Night Takeaway The ITV presenters said they would "certainly not make these sketches today"."
Single sharing flatmates can't have anyone over. They're not a one person household. Unless their partners are on their own.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Describing it in terms of sitcom groups is probably a very good way of explaining things.
Notice that Chandler and Ross cockblock each other. In a weird 2020 version of the prisoner's dilemma, both would be better placed if they moved out and lived on their own.
That's not true: they're only blocked from heterosexual sex.
I see that HBO removing Gone with the Wind has censored from the screen the first Oscar winning performance by a black woman.
If only life was as simplistic as they want it to be.
Although it is worth remembering the hotel had to change its rules in order for her to attend the ceremony, and she and the other non-white cast members had to sit on a segregated table as well as being excluded from post-ceremony festivities.
Nicely contextualised. Thanks.
Banning Gone with the Wind is step too far though.
Forces TV still showing the Dukes of Hazzard, the star of which was an orange '69 Dodge Charger with a Confederate battle flag painted on the roof.
Its also not happened. Gone with the Wind has not been banned.
Its a shame people are reacting with horror to a temporary measure when the company has already that they will be bringing it back to the platform with a proper measure to accompany it - as other platforms have already done with eg classic Tom & Jerry or Dumbo.
I think that's fair enough. The film that is truly jaw-dropping is Birth of a Nation.
It is but even then I still think we should be able to see it so we can understand how some people used to be, why and how far we've come.
It's the same reason you should still be able to read Mein Kampf.
What's being proposed at the moment is student-level no-platforming.
I don't object to a disclaimer at the start of Gone with the Wind. I agree that one should be able to read Mein Kampf, or indeed, watch Birth of a Nation.
I think pulling Little Britain and The League of Gentlemen is pretty silly. Both could be quite offensive, but they were funny.
I've finally found someone who's started to put me off Brexit... @Philip_Thompson
I seem to have associated myself with someone so pedantic, dogmatic and ideological it's made me wonder what business I had ever being on the same side as him in the first place.
Which is funny because I was on the opposite side and you won me over. So what does that say?
My tuppence worth -
I feel the opposite to @Casino_Royale about your performance on this issue of BLM and statues and Floyd.
It has been (for me) your finest PB hour and by a long chalk too. Nor will I cheapen this by a snide rider about "low bar" or anything of that ilk.
Your posts have been principled, thoughtful, punchy where required, and on the right side of history.
One can hardly recognize the man who just a couple of weeks ago was so blindly supportive of everything to do with Boris Johnson that he considered his frame to be "almost all muscle".
And just to cap it off I gather that your favourite 'social liberal', Priti Patel, knocked it out of the park on racism in the House yesterday.
The only way is down from here, Philip.
PT is a liberal and CR is a conservative. Extreme liberals are always up for a bit of disruption.
No PT is a contrarian, and, sorry to be harsh, sadly not very good at it. He needs to be encouraged to get out a bit more.
I`d estimate that libertarians comprise maybe only 5% of the population, so if you are that way inclined being a libertarian and being contrarian is likely to amount to the same thing.
(Hence Spiked.)
Most contrarians I have come across just enjoy being controversial. It might be described as juvenile or even attention seeking. Many people are like this in their late teens, in an attempt to appear clever, though often failing in their objective, and some never grow out of it. IMO Corbyn fell into this camp. He thought it made him look intellectual when clearly the poor man was really not very bright.
That reminds me of the Monty Python Argument Clinic sketch... "No it doesn't"...
Some people who may be thought of as contrarians are nothing of the sort . There are many people who think that they only need to say or argue for something if it is not accepted by the majority (or thought of by) . Most of the time they will agree with the majority and therefore on most issues advance no argument but also no confirmation (as whats the point ?) . You will therefore only hear from them when they are arguing against a majority position because they feel they have something to contribute .
I've finally found someone who's started to put me off Brexit... @Philip_Thompson
I seem to have associated myself with someone so pedantic, dogmatic and ideological it's made me wonder what business I had ever being on the same side as him in the first place.
I (mostly) don't agree with Philip on the statues issue, but he puts his case well.
I've finally found someone who's started to put me off Brexit... @Philip_Thompson
I seem to have associated myself with someone so pedantic, dogmatic and ideological it's made me wonder what business I had ever being on the same side as him in the first place.
I (mostly) don't agree with Philip on the statues issue, but he puts his case well.
I don't agree with him on the civil disobedience side, but I completely agree with him regarding local politicians. They're the people responsible for erecting statues, and they should be responsible for taking them down.
"Ant and Dec 'sorry' for impersonating people of colour on Saturday Night Takeaway The ITV presenters said they would "certainly not make these sketches today"."
A few years ago I endured an episode of Citizen Khan, I think I only made it to the end because I was astounded how unfunny it was. Khan's daughter was dating a white boy, whose parents came to Khan's house - I think Harry Enfield played the Dad. They were as gross exaggerations of poorly educated, white working class people as you are likely to see. If the roles were reversed it would have been some sort of hate crime. Not to go #alllivesmatter, but surely racial stereotypes, especially those punching down, are either ok or not? Maybe the person responsible with hold their hands up and say it was a mistake too.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
I see that HBO removing Gone with the Wind has censored from the screen the first Oscar winning performance by a black woman.
If only life was as simplistic as they want it to be.
Although it is worth remembering the hotel had to change its rules in order for her to attend the ceremony, and she and the other non-white cast members had to sit on a segregated table as well as being excluded from post-ceremony festivities.
Nicely contextualised. Thanks.
Banning Gone with the Wind is step too far though.
Forces TV still showing the Dukes of Hazzard, the star of which was an orange '69 Dodge Charger with a Confederate battle flag painted on the roof.
Its also not happened. Gone with the Wind has not been banned.
Its a shame people are reacting with horror to a temporary measure when the company has already that they will be bringing it back to the platform with a proper measure to accompany it - as other platforms have already done with eg classic Tom & Jerry or Dumbo.
I think that's fair enough. The film that is truly jaw-dropping is Birth of a Nation.
It is but even then I still think we should be able to see it so we can understand how some people used to be, why and how far we've come.
It's the same reason you should still be able to read Mein Kampf.
What's being proposed at the moment is student-level no-platforming.
I don't object to a disclaimer at the start of Gone with the Wind. I agree that one should be able to read Mein Kampf, or indeed, watch Birth of a Nation.
I think pulling Little Britain and The League of Gentlemen is pretty silly. Both could be quite offensive, but they were funny.
Tarantino must be feeling a bit vulnerable. there's bits of True Romance, Pulp Fiction, Hateful 8 where the use of the N word is the entire point of whole scenes.
Single sharing flatmates can't have anyone over. They're not a one person household. Unless their partners are on their own.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Describing it in terms of sitcom groups is probably a very good way of explaining things.
Notice that Chandler and Ross cockblock each other. In a weird 2020 version of the prisoner's dilemma, both would be better placed if they moved out and lived on their own.
That's not true: they're only blocked from heterosexual sex.
It's well established people get creative when under lockdown conditions after all.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Two closest capital cities (Rome, Vatican City - 0m)
Next two closest - Brazzaville, Kinshasa (1m - across the River Congo)
Some interesting comments from the Federal reserve after its latest policy meeting.
US interest rates will remain at zero at least until the end of 2022.
The fed increase its holdings of T-bonds and other securities at least at the current pace.
At first sight it seems very dovish...especially after the jobs shock of last week. I mean the Nasdaq is close to an all time high...
The jobs report, though, contained a very interesting footnote, which says essentially: we believe that there is a misclassification error in these numbers, without which unemployment would have been three points higher.
I've never seen a BLS release with a footnote like that before.
Of course, only a complete cynic would suggest that there might have been political pressure on the BLS.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Okay, you have the data. Do this calculation.
Proportion of total number of 30-year-old healthy UK males with no pre-existing conditions that have been hospitalised by coronavirus.
I dare say the figure you will end up will be rather small.
It doesn’t matter what I present. You are determined that it HAS to be safe for your chosen demographics and you’ll invariably come up with some contrortion or exclusion as to why any data doesn’t count.
A male in his thirties has on the close order of half the risk of hospitalisation, a sixth the risk of needing ICU, and a fiftieth the risk of death of a male in his seventies (to within a factor of two either way; we can’t be more precise than that). With an unquantified and unknown risk of long-term issues and health effects.
You may want this to be negligible risk. And you’re going to insist that it is.
I’ve got better things to do with my evening than smack my head against a brick wall,
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Can you generate a map of say Europe or Africa with no country boundaries marked and just 10 dots marking capitals to be identified?
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Okay, you have the data. Do this calculation.
Proportion of total number of 30-year-old healthy UK males with no pre-existing conditions that have been hospitalised by coronavirus.
I dare say the figure you will end up will be rather small.
It doesn’t matter what I present. You are determined that it HAS to be safe for your chosen demographics and you’ll invariably come up with some contrortion or exclusion as to why any data doesn’t count.
A male in his thirties has on the close order of half the risk of hospitalisation, a sixth the risk of needing ICU, and a fiftieth the risk of death of a male in his seventies (to within a factor of two either way; we can’t be more precise than that). With an unquantified and unknown risk of long-term issues and health effects.
You may want this to be negligible risk. And you’re going to insist that it is.
I’ve got better things to do with my evening than smack my head against a brick wall,
"I’ve got better things to do with my evening than smack my head against a brick wall"
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Pulling numbers directly from the detailed ONS report for Covid deaths in England for April 2020, the Covid-related death rate for males in their early thirties is just over a hundreth of that for males in their early seventies.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Can you generate a map of say Europe or Africa with no country boundaries marked and just 10 dots marking capitals to be identified?
Flags is irredeemably boring.
If you really want to screw with their minds, make it a map of the Caucasus.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Can you generate a map of say Europe or Africa with no country boundaries marked and just 10 dots marking capitals to be identified?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Okay, you have the data. Do this calculation.
Proportion of total number of 30-year-old healthy UK males with no pre-existing conditions that have been hospitalised by coronavirus.
I dare say the figure you will end up will be rather small.
It doesn’t matter what I present. You are determined that it HAS to be safe for your chosen demographics and you’ll invariably come up with some contrortion or exclusion as to why any data doesn’t count.
A male in his thirties has on the close order of half the risk of hospitalisation, a sixth the risk of needing ICU, and a fiftieth the risk of death of a male in his seventies (to within a factor of two either way; we can’t be more precise than that). With an unquantified and unknown risk of long-term issues and health effects.
You may want this to be negligible risk. And you’re going to insist that it is.
I’ve got better things to do with my evening than smack my head against a brick wall,
No, that’s not my demographic. It’s yours. You chose it.
Your OP said that young men erroneously thought covid was low risk to them.
Yet it is low risk to them, very low risk, so they are right, aren’t they?
I ask again, what percentage of all UK otherwise healthy non co-morbid 30-year-old males have been hospitalised by this thing?
I've finally found someone who's started to put me off Brexit... @Philip_Thompson
I seem to have associated myself with someone so pedantic, dogmatic and ideological it's made me wonder what business I had ever being on the same side as him in the first place.
Which is funny because I was on the opposite side and you won me over. So what does that say?
My tuppence worth -
I feel the opposite to @Casino_Royale about your performance on this issue of BLM and statues and Floyd.
It has been (for me) your finest PB hour and by a long chalk too. Nor will I cheapen this by a snide rider about "low bar" or anything of that ilk.
Your posts have been principled, thoughtful, punchy where required, and on the right side of history.
One can hardly recognize the man who just a couple of weeks ago was so blindly supportive of everything to do with Boris Johnson that he considered his frame to be "almost all muscle".
And just to cap it off I gather that your favourite 'social liberal', Priti Patel, knocked it out of the park on racism in the House yesterday.
The only way is down from here, Philip.
PT is a liberal and CR is a conservative. Extreme liberals are always up for a bit of disruption.
No PT is a contrarian, and, sorry to be harsh, sadly not very good at it. He needs to be encouraged to get out a bit more.
You're a tad obsessed with me lately.
If I wanted to be a contrarian I'd be arguing against pulling down statues not for it given them coming down is the standard opinion now.
I'm consistently liberal. I challenge you to say anything I support otherwise. And don't say Brexit because I want a liberal Brexit.
And I would like a healthy nourishing knickerbocker glory.
Sadly the ingredients make this exceedingly unlikely.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
You could also do: what is the modern name for Stalingrad?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Pulling numbers directly from the detailed ONS report for Covid deaths in England for April 2020, the Covid-related death rate for males in their early thirties is just over a hundreth of that for males in their early seventies.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
At least two.
Even old New York was once New Amsterdam Why they changed it I can't say People just liked it better that way
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
At least two.
WHO KNOWS WHAT EVIL LURKS IN THE HEARTS OF MEN?
SQUEAK, said the Death of Rats.
Death shrugged. WELL YES, OBVIOUSLY ME, he said. I JUST WONDERED IF THERE WAS ANYONE ELSE.
I feel like these plots should come with a health warning. They are just one non-expert's guess as to what it is, rather than any official number.
Besides which, the usefulness of "R" is disputed. It can be wildly different in different settings, and as cases drop to a progressively lower level then R will trend towards one and stay there anyway, unless or until transmission completely stops.
Surely it makes more sense simply to look at the trends in test feedback and hospitalisations rather than worrying about this guesstimated, made-up number?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
You could also do: what is the modern name for Stalingrad?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
I do...
Top grad question, hope the answers don't peter out.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Do you mean, between being called St Petersburg and being called Leningrad?
I do...
Top grad question, hope the answers don't peter out.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
At least two.
WHO KNOWS WHAT EVIL LURKS IN THE HEARTS OF MEN?
SQUEAK, said the Death of Rats.
Death shrugged. WELL YES, OBVIOUSLY ME, he said. I JUST WONDERED IF THERE WAS ANYONE ELSE.
My daughter (12) just listened to the audiobook of Going Postal and thought it was the funnies thing she'd ever heard.
The ratio of demographics in ICU against deaths is vastly different between ages.
This is only ICU, though.
An analysis in the US had this:
Which is compatible with the BMJ one and implies that your chance of being hospitalised isn't that much reduced at younger ages, but that of needing ICU is significantly lower and that of dying under care far lower.
Again, extrapolating from death rates to hospitalisation rates is obviously incorrect - it would require your chance of dying when hospitalised to be constant across the ages when it is in fact far higher the older you get.
The only tabulated information on hospitalisation I have found is from early days and assumes a 50% asymptomatic rate and an overall IFR of 0.66% (which now looks to be a bit low)
(If the asympomatic rate is only 30%, then those hospitalisation rates need to be increased by up to 50%)
Am I reading the BMU graph correctly?
Fewer than 100 male 30-year-olds have been hospitalised?
And I would guess that a very large proportion of those have co-morbidities (total proportion across all age groups is 90+% according to NHS England).
If so, I will stick with my contention that if you are a 30-year-old male with no pre-existing conditions, your risks from covid are low compared to risks we face in our normal daily lives.
No, you're not. Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Pulling numbers directly from the detailed ONS report for Covid deaths in England for April 2020, the Covid-related death rate for males in their early thirties is just over a hundreth of that for males in their early seventies.
deaths are not hospitalisations
The remark to which I was responding: "maybe... a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies"
The response: "the Covid-related death rate for males in their early thirties is just over a hundreth of that for males in their early seventies"
I was talking about deaths. I wasn't commenting on hospitalisations. I may not be under consideration for the Nobel Prize for Medicine any time soon, but I have at least managed to work out that deaths are not hospitalisations.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
What about Monica and Ross? Can that work?
Not really as they are brother and sister!!
Ah OK!
But it could be taboo breaking then.
Like Brookside's lesbian kiss.
The Richard III society would probably be in favour, given that they approve of an incestuous infanticide.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
Between Spain and France. I believe it is uninhabited. Sounds my sort of place.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
At least two.
WHO KNOWS WHAT EVIL LURKS IN THE HEARTS OF MEN?
SQUEAK, said the Death of Rats.
Death shrugged. WELL YES, OBVIOUSLY ME, he said. I JUST WONDERED IF THERE WAS ANYONE ELSE.
My daughter (12) just listened to the audiobook of Going Postal and thought it was the funnies thing she'd ever heard.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
On the French / Spanish border. It’s in the middle of the river. But I can’t reminder its name!
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
I knew this was an island in the middle of a river somewhere. I guessed it was in the Danube, but I resorted to Google and think I may be mistaken...
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
Between Spain and France. I believe it is uninhabited. Sounds my sort of place.
Here'a a quiz question: Where in Europe can you find an island which is governed by one country for six months of the the year and by another country for the other six months?
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
So, to take an example, if Monica, Phoebe and Rachel are sharing one flat and Joey, Chandler and Ross are sharing another flat, Ross and Rachel are still on an enforced break (as are Chandler and Monica). Only Phoebe and Joey, if they have partners living on their own elsewhere, have the chance of getting their leg over.
Except, Ross and Phoebe live alone.
Ross can shag Rachel. Monica can shag Chandler. As long as none of them get sick...
Monica can't shag Chandler. Neither of them live alone.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
New York is a good one. I wonder how many people know that’s not the original name.
At least two.
WHO KNOWS WHAT EVIL LURKS IN THE HEARTS OF MEN?
SQUEAK, said the Death of Rats.
Death shrugged. WELL YES, OBVIOUSLY ME, he said. I JUST WONDERED IF THERE WAS ANYONE ELSE.
My daughter (12) just listened to the audiobook of Going Postal and thought it was the funnies thing she'd ever heard.
Then you have clearly succeeded as a parent. Many congratulations.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
4 national flags incorporate firearms, but only one has an automatic weapon. Which country?
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg (more controversially). Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially). ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
There are some easy ones you could do: Peking, Bombay, etc.
Point of order. Neither of those have changed their name. Only how their name is transliterated.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
Earlier names is a good one - Oslo/Kristiania, Istanbul/Constantinople etc.
I did: "Before St Petersburg was called St Petersberg it was called Leningrad. What was it called before that?"
I got about half of people getting it right.
Petrograd?
Your crowd is probably a little more bookish than mine.
I am a beneficiary of slave labour. Every week I enlist PB to help me with my questions for work Zoom quiz, with no payment.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
It's a bit peripheral LG - but I quite like the trivia.
Following Paris' construction of the Eiffel tower, which other capital city started construction of a similar but taller structure?
Comments
Still, I stick with my original contention.
If, of course, it does not confer (even partial) immunity, then we're all f*cked anyway, as there won't be a vaccine under these circumstances.
But if it is, we can then extrapolate from death rate.
Again, I would stick with my original contention, no reason to change it so far...
Maybe you're looking at 30-34 year old males in ICUs only?
About 166 male 30-39 year-old males in ICUas compared to about 1085 male 70-79 year-olds. So you've got about a sixth the chance of going into ICU as a male in your 30s than a male in your 70s.
Your chances of dying will be far lower.
So - maybe half the chance of hospitalisation, a sixth the chance of ICU, a fiftieth the chance of dying for males in their thirties compared to males in their seventies. That's probably about the right scale.
Proportion of total number of 30-year-old healthy UK males with no pre-existing conditions that have been hospitalised by coronavirus.
I dare say the figure you will end up will be rather small.
Venerable Bede
Age:
Venerable.
Can you be a little more precise?
Born around 672; died 735.
Occupation:
Monk, historian, seer who illuminated the Dark Ages.
Motto:
Where there's a quill, there's a way.
Appearance:
Not on a plinth
Should he be?
His admirers reckon so: 20,000 have signed a petition calling for his statue to be erected on the vacant plinth in Trafalgar Square.
Sounds better than the usual disintegrating shark or dirty pair of knickers, so what's the problem?
The plinth is now the responsibility of London's mayor, and the Venerable Ken thinks Bede's majestic Ecclesiastical History of the English People was politically incorrect.
Insufficient space devoted to the Irish potato famine?
Don't be silly. The learned Livingstone, who says he read Bede about 30 years ago, objects to Bede's history being so preoccupied with Christianity. "Bede is really the church's airbrushed version of British history, because he ignores our pagan past."
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2000/jun/21/features11.g2
A huge number of 30-year-old healthy non-comorbid males either won’t catch the virus, or with have no or so few symptoms they either a) don’t even know they have it or b) shrug it off.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The ITV presenters said they would "certainly not make these sketches today"."
https://news.sky.com/story/ant-and-dec-sorry-for-impersonating-people-of-colour-on-saturday-night-takeaway-12004327
US interest rates will remain at zero at least until the end of 2022.
The fed increase its holdings of T-bonds and other securities at least at the current pace.
At first sight it seems very dovish...especially after the jobs shock of last week. I mean the Nasdaq is close to an all time high...
I think pulling Little Britain and The League of Gentlemen is pretty silly. Both could be quite offensive, but they were funny.
This week I've been given flags and capital cities, but that's too boring so I want to do a riff on it, and try not to ask the questions in the same way. I thought maybe do images with 'where am I?' or do some trivia about the capitals etc.
Any ideas, they would be most welcome!
How hard can it be to take the bad pill and stick with it!?
Next two closest - Brazzaville, Kinshasa (1m - across the River Congo)
I've never seen a BLS release with a footnote like that before.
Of course, only a complete cynic would suggest that there might have been political pressure on the BLS.
You are determined that it HAS to be safe for your chosen demographics and you’ll invariably come up with some contrortion or exclusion as to why any data doesn’t count.
A male in his thirties has on the close order of half the risk of hospitalisation, a sixth the risk of needing ICU, and a fiftieth the risk of death of a male in his seventies (to within a factor of two either way; we can’t be more precise than that). With an unquantified and unknown risk of long-term issues and health effects.
You may want this to be negligible risk. And you’re going to insist that it is.
I’ve got better things to do with my evening than smack my head against a brick wall,
Flags is irredeemably boring.
Show off
I got about half of people getting it right.
Harare /Salisbury (even more controversially).
ho Chi Minh / Saigon (you see where I am going with this)
Your OP said that young men erroneously thought covid was low risk to them.
Yet it is low risk to them, very low risk, so they are right, aren’t they?
I ask again, what percentage of all UK otherwise healthy non co-morbid 30-year-old males have been hospitalised by this thing?
Sadly the ingredients make this exceedingly unlikely.
Why they changed it I can't say
People just liked it better that way
SQUEAK, said the Death of Rats.
Death shrugged. WELL YES, OBVIOUSLY ME, he said. I JUST WONDERED IF THERE WAS ANYONE ELSE.
Surely it makes more sense simply to look at the trends in test feedback and hospitalisations rather than worrying about this guesstimated, made-up number?
Cultural wars.
But it could be taboo breaking then.
Like Brookside's lesbian kiss.
The response: "the Covid-related death rate for males in their early thirties is just over a hundreth of that for males in their early seventies"
I was talking about deaths. I wasn't commenting on hospitalisations. I may not be under consideration for the Nobel Prize for Medicine any time soon, but I have at least managed to work out that deaths are not hospitalisations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pheasant_Island
Half as Interesting did a video about it.
You could get an entire set of ten out of Wroclaw.
My idea of a holiday home for sure.
Your crowd is probably a little more bookish than mine.
Following Paris' construction of the Eiffel tower, which other capital city started construction of a similar but taller structure?
(You'd have to check the details, but there was a big building programme in Wembley. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkin's_Tower)
Try the Highlands -
Fort William was (and, importantly, also remains) An Gearasdan ('The Garrison').
Edinburgh: Dùn Èidean.
Though Dingwall might be unfair (Inbhir Pheofharain).