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Just to be clear I don't want the UK to extend; the sooner the learning process begins the better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may just be in for a surprise and not the one you hope foranotherex_tory said:
Spot on: they are positioning themselves for emergency negotiations in early 2021 and hint dropping at that time what it wouldn't be an emergency if the UK had taken the EU's suggestion now.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
If there is any doubt that it will come to that then they should read this:
https://www.ft.com/content/7efb877a-8b58-4f7d-9a35-4d21de6638e4
The UK literally doesn't have the infrastructure in place to cope with inspections on EU trade so if the UK Government isn't bluffing then they are about to unleash a disaster on the UK Economy.
For the EU the outcome is the same: a UK-EU trade deal along the parameters they have set out. It is either agreed now or later.
The UK requesting an extension wouldn't surprise me but I still don't see it happening based on the mouth-frothing idealogues who do the thinking for the government.
The EU changing the parameters they have set out? Even after all the ramping up we've seen so far it could happen but they would still expect movement from the UK government and the mouth-frothing idealogues in the government and who drive government behavour from without will not allow it.
The UK is going over the edge and there is no "good idea" to save it: enjoy the ride.0 -
There is at least one fuckwit in the government that is still listening to Cummings!contrarian said:0 -
More Or Less was worth listening to this morning. Seems SAGE took Ferguson's model as the main input, and other voices that had different results were, well, not ignored as such, but given less weight.contrarian said:
At the time his model had doubling at 5 or 6 days whereas it was in fact 3 days. That made all the difference to our lockdown being later than it should have been, if your plan was to lockdown and eventually suppress.0 -
Nigel_Foremain said:
A lot of Brexiters are like those Japanese soldiers that are still fighting the last war. The only difference is that the former are only cut off from reality by their own stupidity lol.</blockquoteOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
Its funny I feel exactly the same about remainers like Andrew Adonis and Alistair Campbell.
And like Japan, they lost.0 -
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Nope, everyone lost. Brexit was a fuckwits' charter and the people who will lose the most will be not those that advocated it, but those who voted for itcontrarian said:Nigel_Foremain said:
A lot of Brexiters are like those Japanese soldiers that are still fighting the last war. The only difference is that the former are only cut off from reality by their own stupidity lol.OnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.1 -
He could have been a dissenting voice, I suppose.Scott_xP said:0 -
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.0 -
Yep and Johnson knows it better than most. He just does not have the first clue as to what to do about it. Oh, fuck business! He certainly has!anotherex_tory said:
Just to be clear I don't want the UK to extend; the sooner the learning process begins the better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may just be in for a surprise and not the one you hope foranotherex_tory said:
Spot on: they are positioning themselves for emergency negotiations in early 2021 and hint dropping at that time what it wouldn't be an emergency if the UK had taken the EU's suggestion now.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
If there is any doubt that it will come to that then they should read this:
https://www.ft.com/content/7efb877a-8b58-4f7d-9a35-4d21de6638e4
The UK literally doesn't have the infrastructure in place to cope with inspections on EU trade so if the UK Government isn't bluffing then they are about to unleash a disaster on the UK Economy.
For the EU the outcome is the same: a UK-EU trade deal along the parameters they have set out. It is either agreed now or later.
The UK requesting an extension wouldn't surprise me but I still don't see it happening based on the mouth-frothing idealogues who do the thinking for the government.
The EU changing the parameters they have set out? Even after all the ramping up we've seen so far it could happen but they would still expect movement from the UK government and the mouth-frothing idealogues in the government and who drive government behavour from without will not allow it.
The UK is going over the edge and there is no "good idea" to save it: enjoy the ride.0 -
To be fair to be Ferguson, he seems to have got the Infection Fatality Rate spot on at about 1%as evidenced by the many serology investigations of the past few weeks. So his model didn't underestimate the damage, unlike other models fashionably quoted here - eg Gupta. He seems to have underestimated the effect of lockdown interventions in the early days, although he corrected this later. That may have fed into the delay in lockdown, but ultimately it was a political decision, as it needs to be.Flatlander said:
More Or Less was worth listening to this morning. Seems SAGE took Ferguson's model as the main input, and other voices that had different results were, well, not ignored as such, but given less weight.contrarian said:
At the time his model had doubling at 5 or 6 days whereas it was in fact 3 days. That made all the difference to our lockdown being later than it should have been, if your plan was to lockdown and eventually suppress.0 -
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Who are, in the eyes of some here "unaffected" by Covid-19, and for whom "it's simply not a thing."eadric said:
That's quite fair. And I am a Boris fan, or at least a fan of Boris as was. It is a persona tragedy for him, but it is just the case: he has clearly been whacked by Covid, and that can take a long time to recover from (if you ever recover); I have close friends who have had it for months and are still very sick.TOPPING said:
If the future of the country weren't at stake you'd have to feel sorry for him - worked so hard and for so long to become PM, gets it, begins to live the high life, and then gets struck down, literally, by the event that will likely dent significantly, if not ruin his premiership.dixiedean said:
He clearly isn't 100%.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.
However, the future of the country is at stake, so, while wishing him a 100% recovery from the virus, fuck him. The sooner he leaves the better.
As are the ones hospitalised or even in intensive care, assuming they recover.
If they don't turn up in the death column, they're unaffected. Like Boris. Or, more darkly, Derek Draper.
It's one thing that's potentially very dangerous (and is a meme spreading amongst younger men in particular): that if they aren't elderly, fat, or suffering from a major illness already, they are effectively all-but-immune to it already, it doesn't affect them, and it's really not a thing for them. And quoting the death statistics only.
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What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
When you say "change opinion" do you mean "elect a new government which has a policy of raprochment with its largest single trading partner"?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
Because I wasn't aware that the Brexit referendum was designed to bind the hands of all future governments or indeed electorates. That would be very much out of character for the UK constitution.0 -
Eric Joyce another chapter opens.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-52995737?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk&link_location=live-reporting-story0 -
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.0 -
I thought that was you, hun.eadric said:
You are the most boringly predictable poster on PB. It's an achievement of sorts.Scott_xP said:
That is the definition of Brexit.eadric said:He could have been a good Brexit premier, but this task requires patience, diligence, the tolerance of many boring little tasks, without much glory in the end for all your work.
Millions of changes in very specific minutiae for fuck all gain.0 -
Which one? - or do all the SeanTs move as one?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought that was you, hun.eadric said:
You are the most boringly predictable poster on PB. It's an achievement of sorts.Scott_xP said:
That is the definition of Brexit.eadric said:He could have been a good Brexit premier, but this task requires patience, diligence, the tolerance of many boring little tasks, without much glory in the end for all your work.
Millions of changes in very specific minutiae for fuck all gain.0 -
https://distincttoday.net/2020/06/10/museum-curator-tweets-advice-on-destroying-bronze-statues/
I expect Royston Museum will soon be seeking a new curator.0 -
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn imo have one thing at least in common. They are both front men.Mexicanpete said:
I believe it a given that Corbyn would have been a rabbit in the headlights, incapable of making a decision, but that sounds familiar for students of the present incumbent.Nigelb said:
Agreed.ydoethur said:
When Corbyn led the opposition I was in blind panic about what he might do if he ever got into power. Even worse than I am about what Johnson is actually doing while in power.Yorkcity said:
I believe most of the battle for any Labour leader of the opposition.Is that voters can see that they can be PM.ydoethur said:
One of the reasons that Blair so comprehensively outmaneuvered Michael Howard to win a comfortable majority on a sliver of the popular vote was precisely because he took him very seriously. The day before his uncontested succession, Blair called a crisis meeting of his cabinet, and commented to a friendly journalist (who quoted him as 'an informed source') 'Howard is good. We need to up our game here if we want to see him off.'Yorkcity said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html
In my opinion this article is correct.
And it is fair to say that while Howard helpfully messed up over the Hutton report, Blair's very focussed attacks on him and detailed work on his policies, plus a decision to make peace with Gordon Brown on terms that were, to put it mildly, politically disadvantageous, were a key part in the 2005 election victory.
By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.
Who do I see in the current PM? The shrewd political operator who took a flawed but feisty and intelligent opponent seriously and won, or the hubristic ones who dismissed their opponents as useless lightweights, and lost?
Hmmm...tricky one.
Which is a long winded way of saying Barwell is right.
SKS fits that criteria as did Blair in 1994.
My father a life long Conservative said to me that Starmer is impressive.
I think the same, and was relieved that the Labour Party, and the country has a credible alternative .
Even if I don't vote for Starmer, which I may or may not, if he becomes PM I will be happy that the country is in the hands of a man of obvious ability and (on first glance) personal integrity. That's entirely separate from what policies he may pursue. I don't suppose he and I would agree on all policy issues (in fact I know we don't) but I get no sense he's vicious or malicious.
I'll take that as a bloody good start.
I think Johnson utterly useless if judged on his response to the pandemic. Corbyn would probably have been worse.
Irrespective of the politics, I'd be happy if the country were in the hands of a leader displaying basic competence.
At least Corbyn might have had the decency to turn up to a Cobra meeting or two, although he might have slept through them.
I don't mean this in the sense of (say) the non-instrument-playing lead singer in a band, a Jim Morrison or a Jarvis Cocker, strutting around and delivering the goods with energy and panache. Johnson is no Jim. Or certainly these days he isn't. And Corbyn was never by any stretch of the imagination a Cocker.
No.
I mean it in the less positive sense of them having virtually zero ability to manage a process of any length or complexity, or to grasp any concept or policy properly which requires either intellect (JC) or attention span (BJ).
I suspect this government is being run by two hyper-intense and driven dynamos who go way back - Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings - and that Johnson has become somebody to be "managed" and wheeled out occasionally, with fingers crossed he will not do too much damage.
"What to do about Boris?" is, I sense, a question gaining traction in the corridors of power.0 -
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remainNigel_Foremain said:
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.0 -
And all we really needed to do was introduce self-isolation, get everyone possible working from home, have public transport reduced by 75%+, close down cafes, pubs, and restaurants, close schools, close nighclubs, theatres, cinemas, and gyms, stop all public sports, and get everyone social-distancing by 2 metres+NerysHughes said:
The peak of the virus was at least 4 days before lockdownBig_G_NorthWales said:
Read the last paragraphScott_xP said:
(all the things enacted by then).0 -
She didn't look as if she enjoyed those two years much.Sunil_Prasannan said:
May being so humiliated that she remained PM for another two years?ydoethur said:
By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.0 -
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
Surely Johnson has a clue about what to do; he'll lie. He'll bluster and insist that the EU changed their position. I wouldn't be surprised if some Cummings acolyte is, at this very moment doctoring that famous clip about throwing documents about trade between N.Ireland and the mainland in the bin.Nigel_Foremain said:
Yep and Johnson knows it better than most. He just does not have the first clue as to what to do about it. Oh, fuck business! He certainly has!anotherex_tory said:
Just to be clear I don't want the UK to extend; the sooner the learning process begins the better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may just be in for a surprise and not the one you hope foranotherex_tory said:
Spot on: they are positioning themselves for emergency negotiations in early 2021 and hint dropping at that time what it wouldn't be an emergency if the UK had taken the EU's suggestion now.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
If there is any doubt that it will come to that then they should read this:
https://www.ft.com/content/7efb877a-8b58-4f7d-9a35-4d21de6638e4
The UK literally doesn't have the infrastructure in place to cope with inspections on EU trade so if the UK Government isn't bluffing then they are about to unleash a disaster on the UK Economy.
For the EU the outcome is the same: a UK-EU trade deal along the parameters they have set out. It is either agreed now or later.
The UK requesting an extension wouldn't surprise me but I still don't see it happening based on the mouth-frothing idealogues who do the thinking for the government.
The EU changing the parameters they have set out? Even after all the ramping up we've seen so far it could happen but they would still expect movement from the UK government and the mouth-frothing idealogues in the government and who drive government behavour from without will not allow it.
The UK is going over the edge and there is no "good idea" to save it: enjoy the ride.0 -
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I agree that it was a political decision, but when SAGE says now is not the time to lockdown, what could the politicians realistically do?FF43 said:
To be fair to be Ferguson, he seems to have got the Infection Fatality Rate spot on at about 1%as evidenced by the many serology investigations of the past few weeks. So his model didn't underestimate the damage, unlike other models fashionably quoted here - eg Gupta. He seems to have underestimated the effect of lockdown interventions in the early days, although he corrected this later. That may have fed into the delay in lockdown, but ultimately it was a political decision, as it needs to be.Flatlander said:
More Or Less was worth listening to this morning. Seems SAGE took Ferguson's model as the main input, and other voices that had different results were, well, not ignored as such, but given less weight.contrarian said:
At the time his model had doubling at 5 or 6 days whereas it was in fact 3 days. That made all the difference to our lockdown being later than it should have been, if your plan was to lockdown and eventually suppress.
The 1% estimate wasn't really relevant for the timing of lockdown. What was needed was the speed the infection was spreading, and that estimate was wrong.
I'm not claiming it was easy to get this right at the time, but it does explain what happened.0 -
The people get what they want matey - they got Brexit, the got Boris, if they vote for a government backing policies that look like BINO down the line they get that too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remainNigel_Foremain said:
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
Rational? Purposeful? Maybe not. Democratic though? Yes.0 -
Of course a government elected on a mandate for closer relationship with the EU would be able to change the terms of the relationship but that is not where we are nowanotherex_tory said:
When you say "change opinion" do you mean "elect a new government which has a policy of raprochment with its largest single trading partner"?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
Because I wasn't aware that the Brexit referendum was designed to bind the hands of all future governments or indeed electorates. That would be very much out of character for the UK constitution.0 -
I'm far from persuaded by @Eadric and @Peter_the_Punter 's admittedly fascinating theory that Bozza is not long for the PM's job.
I do take the points that he is a) poorly and b)hates dealing with the covid misery...
BUT
The corona recovery programme is tailor-made for a deficit-dove Keynesian like Bozza.
He’s a classic bread and circuses Tory, so will love giveaway governing.
Big spending recovery programmes are his wet dream.1 -
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usRichard_Nabavi said:
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion"2 -
Exactly, which is why what Ferguson says is a bit odd.Andy_Cooke said:
And all we really needed to do was introduce self-isolation, get everyone possible working from home, have public transport reduced by 75%+, close down cafes, pubs, and restaurants, close schools, close nighclubs, theatres, cinemas, and gyms, stop all public sports, and get everyone social-distancing by 2 metres+NerysHughes said:
The peak of the virus was at least 4 days before lockdownBig_G_NorthWales said:
Read the last paragraphScott_xP said:
(all the things enacted by then).0 -
Thanks - that's what I thought, too, so there must be some other reason which I couldn't discern from Mr Massie's twitter stuff. Maybe the thought of eating supper outdoor in an Ayrshire January? distancing when reciting Ode to a Haggis?Richard_Nabavi said:
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
-
I don't understand the flak which Prof Ferguson is getting. Isn't he just saying that with hindsight the infection was more widespread in early March than they thought at the time?4
-
Daily reaper's toll: 245, rolling 7 day avg 200. As usual, lots of backdated, real figure for day probably 15%-25% lower.
Cases down to 1003. That's quite reassuring, lowest since lockdown, and no sign of anything other than a constant decline in new infections.0 -
Just 1k new cases reported today. That figure is still coming down.0
-
I would say with Covid19 its better. Companies are already adjusting procedures and the ports are quieter, so now is a time to adjust procedures to be both COVID-secure and post-transition ready.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course I understand it. I was a member of the party as it descended into this madness.Philip_Thompson said:
It is an article of faith for a reason. Its remarkable that you still don't understand that.Richard_Nabavi said:
No chance. It's an article of religious faith, nothing to do with new budgets or anything rational.MaxPB said:
Again, if the UK were to lay down terms for an extension which includes no part of the new budget etc... I'm sure a majority can be cobbled together for it.
But, irrespective of the reasons for the madness, the fact still remains that business and governments are not going to be even remotely ready for Jan 1st. There is no getting round this: to be ready in time, they first of all need to know - in excruciating detail - what the new arrangement are, that is say such boring things as the information required for each and every one of the zillions of new paper or electronic forms which will have to be filled in. Then they need to train up lots of customs agents (50,000 according the UK government), plus hundreds of thousands of internal staff. They (businesses and government) need to implement major new computer systems, and test them with full-scale trials. They also need to figure out how on earth a roll-on, roll-off terminal at Dover, currently set up for a continuous stream of lorries, can physically handle the delays with drivers waiting while the paperwork is sorted out. No-one seems to have an answer to that.
Even without Covid-19, all that would now be impossible to get done on time. With Covid-19, it's even worse.
But either way, if we what you want is certainty there's a simple way to do it - end of June say that negotiations aren't working and we're going to WTO terms and businesses have six months to get ready for that.0 -
Sounds good to me, but sadly, not going to happen. Bozo doesn't have the negotiating ability even if he wanted it. You can be reassured that we are heading for a full fat stupidity index 10, cliff edge crash out. It will possibly be like Black Wednesday on steroids, which when combined with the epidemic aftermath will be enough to put the Conservative Party on a course to being out of office for a generation, or more. Those of us of a centre right persuasion have to hope that the Labour party stays relatively moderate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remainNigel_Foremain said:
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.0 -
I think you need to learn the difference between being ‘in power’ (before) and ‘in Office’ after.Sunil_Prasannan said:
May being so humiliated that she remained PM for another two years?ydoethur said:
By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.0 -
Amesbury home of Novichok victim Charlie Rowley to be demolished.
https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/12707400027967979520 -
Sky leading on the OECD saying there will be an over 11% decline in GDP this year, speaking as if that's worse than expected . . .
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Bank of England predict around the start of lockdown that it would be a 15% decline followed by a 14% rise next year, or something like that?
If so, an 11% decline this year surely seems to be lower than the BoE was projecting, not higher than it?1 -
They are going after people whose parents gained from slavery (Peel junior, Henry De la Beche) and youthful views that were modified are no defence (Gladstone) so cancelling an actual job on a slave plantation because you no longer need it must mean all Burns statues must go, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usRichard_Nabavi said:
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion"0 -
Considering the number of tests that have been happening that is a very low figureMaxPB said:Just 1k new cases reported today. That figure is still coming down.
0 -
Cases data out https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk - another big fall to 1,003 confirmed cases
Remember this is reported, but not on.
England region cases, by date of specimen date -
0 -
Not at all odd.NerysHughes said:
Exactly, which is why what Ferguson says is a bit odd.Andy_Cooke said:
And all we really needed to do was introduce self-isolation, get everyone possible working from home, have public transport reduced by 75%+, close down cafes, pubs, and restaurants, close schools, close nighclubs, theatres, cinemas, and gyms, stop all public sports, and get everyone social-distancing by 2 metres+NerysHughes said:
The peak of the virus was at least 4 days before lockdownBig_G_NorthWales said:
Read the last paragraphScott_xP said:
(all the things enacted by then).
It’s classic blame shifting.
90% of people won’t know that the government did what he recommended.0 -
On this, none from me; what he's saying is clearly true.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't understand the flak which Prof Ferguson is getting. Isn't he just saying that with hindsight the infection was more widespread in early March than they thought at the time?
I guess the flack is because he was Mr. 'Herd Immunity' for a brief while, and his model wasn't up to snuff.
And it isn't entirely hindsight to say that we ought to have locked down sooner.0 -
I find it really positive and reassuring that Remainers like yourself are increasingly pessimistic and resigned to it being a diamond hard Brexit. That is brilliant. When May was in negotiations everyone was assuring there was zero chance of that as the UK would never walk away (which was true under May) but now nobody seems to be saying that anymore.Nigel_Foremain said:
Sounds good to me, but sadly, not going to happen. Bozo doesn't have the negotiating ability even if he wanted it. You can be reassured that we are heading for a full fat stupidity index 10, cliff edge crash out. It will possibly be like Black Wednesday on steroids, which when combined with the epidemic aftermath will be enough to put the Conservative Party on a course to being out of office for a generation, or more. Those of us of a centre right persuasion have to hope that the Labour party stays relatively moderate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remainNigel_Foremain said:
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
That's exactly what we need Barnier to understand. The best possible chance of compromise is from people like Nigel here to be as resigned, miserable and downbeat as possible.0 -
An intelligent way forward from Plymouth Council.
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/council-says-sir-francis-drake-42119060 -
Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.0 -
-
-
-
When really we should be striking out for the bullshit uplands.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remain0 -
If you are 30 years old, male, fit and healthy and with no co-morbidities, you would indeed be at low risk of hospitalisation though.Andy_Cooke said:
Who are, in the eyes of some here "unaffected" by Covid-19, and for whom "it's simply not a thing."eadric said:
That's quite fair. And I am a Boris fan, or at least a fan of Boris as was. It is a persona tragedy for him, but it is just the case: he has clearly been whacked by Covid, and that can take a long time to recover from (if you ever recover); I have close friends who have had it for months and are still very sick.TOPPING said:
If the future of the country weren't at stake you'd have to feel sorry for him - worked so hard and for so long to become PM, gets it, begins to live the high life, and then gets struck down, literally, by the event that will likely dent significantly, if not ruin his premiership.dixiedean said:
He clearly isn't 100%.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.
However, the future of the country is at stake, so, while wishing him a 100% recovery from the virus, fuck him. The sooner he leaves the better.
As are the ones hospitalised or even in intensive care, assuming they recover.
If they don't turn up in the death column, they're unaffected. Like Boris. Or, more darkly, Derek Draper.
It's one thing that's potentially very dangerous (and is a meme spreading amongst younger men in particular): that if they aren't elderly, fat, or suffering from a major illness already, they are effectively all-but-immune to it already, it doesn't affect them, and it's really not a thing for them. And quoting the death statistics only.
So the young men you cite are fairly good judges of risk I would say.
That is not to say that you can't find exceptions, merely that the risk from covid to those groups is somewhat lower than other risks we face in our daily lives.0 -
He practised houghmagandie.AlastairMeeks said:
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usRichard_Nabavi said:
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion"0 -
Well, it depends what you want.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite. Putting it off and off makes the less stable amongst us on the topic get ever more agitated and fearful of the outcome. It really is best just to do it, emerge blinking into the sun, check all our appendages are still present, and get on with it.contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
If you want a negotiated settlement with the EU, them a short extension makes sense. Why? Because we will hopefully be further along with other negotiations. And the further on we are with other negotiations, the more leverage we have with the EU. Simply, in any negotiation, the better the alternatives look, the more power you have.
By contrast, no extension - and few alternative trading agreements - means that EU negotiators will probably think "Hmmm... they haven't even ratified a deal with Australia yet, they're going to fold on everything at the last minute."
Now, as it happens, I don't think we'll blink in the second scenario, and I think we'll leave the Single Market (we've left the EU already of course) without a deal. The question then becomes whether doing this reduces (or increases) our negotiating position with the EU, the US and other trading partners.0 -
Yes, I think his comments are reasonable. It's a statement of the obvious, with a rough estimate attached. Lock down two weeks earlier and deaths are lower still. Lock down with the first case in Britain the you can eliminate probably all deaths, certainly the vast majority. You do however destroy your economy and, applying similar logic, would also have done so for SARS, which was contained with contact tracing and a negligible economic hit.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't understand the flak which Prof Ferguson is getting. Isn't he just saying that with hindsight the infection was more widespread in early March than they thought at the time?
There isn't a single optimum time to lock down. Even with hindsight, that depends on relative values of lives lost to COVID-19 and the economic effects (which will also shorten and reduce quality of some lives). At the time, it's an impossible call. We may find evidence emerges that the government were too slow to react to advice and could reasonably have been expected to implement the full lock down earlier, but Ferguson is not saying that and - you would think - he'd be one of the people who would know.0 -
When were the scientists advising lockdown? Were ministers supposed to say 'Fuck the science - we're locking down in February!'?Scott_xP said:0 -
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.1 -
It is though in character for the way that Brussells operates. Every single EU treaty that the UK signed up to was designed to bind the hands of all future governments and future electorates. And for the few countries which allow their people a say on treaties, the EU only accepts the results of referenda to endorse treaties when they produce the right result, otherwise it does everything in its power to get nations to run them again or put aside the results. In the case of Brexit its been about dragging out the process in the hope that at some point a government will give up the will to press ahead.anotherex_tory said:
When you say "change opinion" do you mean "elect a new government which has a policy of raprochment with its largest single trading partner"?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
Because I wasn't aware that the Brexit referendum was designed to bind the hands of all future governments or indeed electorates. That would be very much out of character for the UK constitution.0 -
Threat of Military Action Rattles Brazil as Virus Deaths Surge
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/world/americas/bolsonaro-coup-coronavirus-brazil.html
The threats are swirling around the president: Deaths from the virus in Brazil each day are now the highest in the world. Investors are fleeing the country. The president, his sons and his allies are under investigation. His election could even be overturned.
The crisis has grown so intense that some of the most powerful military figures in Brazil are warning of instability — sending shudders that they could take over and dismantle Latin America’s largest democracy.
But far from denouncing the idea, President Jair Bolsonaro’s inner circle seems to be clamoring for the military to step into the fray. In fact, one of the president’s sons, a congressman who has praised the country’s former military dictatorship, said a similar institutional break was inevitable....0 -
All that practice appeared to make him quite good at it.Sean_F said:
He practised houghmagandie.AlastairMeeks said:
"O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usRichard_Nabavi said:
He accepted the job, but in the end didn't actually go because the publication of his poems was instantly and unexpectedly successful. Phew, that's alright then.Carnyx said:
What's wrong with Burns? He never actually became a slave plantation overseer.Richard_Nabavi said:
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion"0 -
I'd have some sympathy for that view if the government were actually doing all the necessary preparatory work. But they are not. They are in denial about the scale of the administrative challenges.Philip_Thompson said:
I would say with Covid19 its better. Companies are already adjusting procedures and the ports are quieter, so now is a time to adjust procedures to be both COVID-secure and post-transition ready.
But either way, if we what you want is certainty there's a simple way to do it - end of June say that negotiations aren't working and we're going to WTO terms and businesses have six months to get ready for that.0 -
For a while now, it's looked like we're getting pretty much all the symptomatic cases, which clearly wasn't happening a few months ago. That's definitely good news.NerysHughes said:
Considering the number of tests that have been happening that is a very low figureMaxPB said:Just 1k new cases reported today. That figure is still coming down.
No question that the numbers are coming down, but the issues remain about the rate of decline and the slack to remove control measures and continue that decline.0 -
The fact she's American and is advocating chucking some corrosive substance (or whatever the hell it is) over statues of Churchill in Britain makes me *livid*. I mean really? Fuck off and go and live in the free state of Seattle or whatever it is. I must really be anti-immigrant.dr_spyn said:It takes years to build a reputation and a couple of tweets to destroy it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8405899/Museum-curator-tweets-advice-destroy-bronze-statues-chemicals-BLM-protests.html
Doesn't look like a career enhancing move.
0 -
Teachers are not all left wing. In my school I would say there are two members of staff who are politically further left than I am. The rest are all quite right wing.squareroot2 said:
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.2 -
Ferguson's track record shows he is a fantasist who likes to make up enormous numbers to attract attention and impress married women.Nigelb said:
On this, none from me; what he's saying is clearly true.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't understand the flak which Prof Ferguson is getting. Isn't he just saying that with hindsight the infection was more widespread in early March than they thought at the time?
I guess the flack is because he was Mr. 'Herd Immunity' for a brief while, and his model wasn't up to snuff.
And it isn't entirely hindsight to say that we ought to have locked down sooner.
This is the latest example.
Every day its becoming clearer that Gupta was right and he was completely wrong.
The virus rose completely independently of anything the government did, peaked before lockdown could possibly have taken any effect, and is now fizzling out even as we leave lockdown.
0 -
Then Hancock is either a liar or a fool.Scott_xP said:0 -
So why is he lying about it now ?BluestBlue said:
When were the scientists advising lockdown? Were ministers supposed to say 'Fuck the science - we're locking down in February!'?Scott_xP said:0 -
Tee hee! Barnier doesn't care what I think or what you think: winning an 80 seat majority may strengthen Boris' parliamentary position but it changes nothing about the UK's bargaining position and that has been on show before and after the election.Philip_Thompson said:
I find it really positive and reassuring that Remainers like yourself are increasingly pessimistic and resigned to it being a diamond hard Brexit. That is brilliant. When May was in negotiations everyone was assuring there was zero chance of that as the UK would never walk away (which was true under May) but now nobody seems to be saying that anymore.Nigel_Foremain said:
Sounds good to me, but sadly, not going to happen. Bozo doesn't have the negotiating ability even if he wanted it. You can be reassured that we are heading for a full fat stupidity index 10, cliff edge crash out. It will possibly be like Black Wednesday on steroids, which when combined with the epidemic aftermath will be enough to put the Conservative Party on a course to being out of office for a generation, or more. Those of us of a centre right persuasion have to hope that the Labour party stays relatively moderate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BINO is the aim for many and in those circumstances we may as well remainNigel_Foremain said:
Oh do stop being silly. Paranoid nonsense. Like it or not, we have left. Brexit enthusiasts and Johnson apologists will have to own the consequences, just like they should own the consequences of the shambolic response to the epidemic. Johnson is a chaotic rank amateur. His only positive is he isn't s bad as Corbyn, which is a very very low barBig_G_NorthWales said:
Play it long and change opinion to agree a deal that effectively leaves us in the EU with no say in the organisation and still paying in (BINO)OnlyLivingBoy said:
How can we remain when we have left?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know that many are trying to delay the actual day in a vain attempt that the longer the delay the more they hope we will end up remainingOnlyLivingBoy said:
You do know that we have left, right?contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
That's exactly what we need Barnier to understand. The best possible chance of compromise is from people like Nigel here to be as resigned, miserable and downbeat as possible.
"Diamond Hard Brexit"? how about "Cold Steel vein opening"? You can brand it any way you like chum and you can judge the mood of the occupants of the good ship Brexitannia any way you like it changes nothing.
When excrement and fan meet in January and the mood of the passangers changes it will be too late and all the better for it: as a society we may like a good talen show but our appetite for the actual consequences of our actual decisions is low and its time that changed for everyone's education.
Hopefully some of the cold brown matter will make its way back to the people who encouraged its flinging in the first place.0 -
I take the opposite view. I think if we go for a short extension that's the worst possible scenario since it achieves nothing in itself and simply will send the signal that during the short extension we'll request another short extension, rinse and repeat. It will be Theresa May redux.rcs1000 said:
Well, it depends what you want.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite. Putting it off and off makes the less stable amongst us on the topic get ever more agitated and fearful of the outcome. It really is best just to do it, emerge blinking into the sun, check all our appendages are still present, and get on with it.contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
If you want a negotiated settlement with the EU, them a short extension makes sense. Why? Because we will hopefully be further along with other negotiations. And the further on we are with other negotiations, the more leverage we have with the EU. Simply, in any negotiation, the better the alternatives look, the more power you have.
By contrast, no extension - and few alternative trading agreements - means that EU negotiators will probably think "Hmmm... they haven't even ratified a deal with Australia yet, they're going to fold on everything at the last minute."
Now, as it happens, I don't think we'll blink in the second scenario, and I think we'll leave the Single Market (we've left the EU already of course) without a deal. The question then becomes whether doing this reduces (or increases) our negotiating position with the EU, the US and other trading partners.
The EU needs to look at us and think "these bastards are crazy enough they're going to walk away" and take the negotiations seriously.0 -
(Edit function not working)ydoethur said:
Teachers are not all left wing. In my school I would say there are two members of staff who are politically further left than I am. The rest are all quite right wing.squareroot2 said:
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.
Where you could have made a valid point is that teachers had to deal with Cummings from 2010 to 2014. This demonstrated to us that he’s (a) a pig ignorant stupid twat (b) a nasty bully (c) totally incompetent and therefore (d) we all hate him and find it incredibly funny that he’s trashed himself so epically.0 -
Normally such a fruitful source of pro-Tory views too. I wonder which group of staunch supporters we'll alienate next - please not the TUC!OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.1 -
A point I've been making for at least a couple of months now.Scott_xP said:
Mistakes are inevitable - what is unforgivable is the refusal either to accept or learn from them.0 -
Lockdown breaker Ferguson seems to have escaped reputation unblemished from the kangaroo court0
-
Oh dear. Royston really is a very mild and inoffensive sort of place (and the Museum is also pretty mild and inoffensive. Well, dull basically. And tiny.)Sean_F said:https://distincttoday.net/2020/06/10/museum-curator-tweets-advice-on-destroying-bronze-statues/
I expect Royston Museum will soon be seeking a new curator.
I would imagine that when the trustees hired Mrs Odent they were looking for a bit of excitement. Drag Queen Story Time (which would likely attract a lot more plaudits than brickbats round here in this day and age) might have been the sort of antidote to beigeness that they had in mind. Entreaties to go after historic monuments to national heroes, rather less so.
I'm also fascinated by her desire to "diversify and decolonise" the museum. Diversification is one thing (albeit that we're a small Hertfordshire market town and not exactly a metropolitan melting pot,) but decolonisation? Insofar as I can recall the town museum is some way distant from being a temple to the glorification of empire. And if she's looking for statues of controversial figures to be pulling down round this neck of the woods then there's not exactly a massive choice - unless she wants to dynamite the war memorial...0 -
That would however have given a higher death toll. I understand your comment to be that R<1 before the full lock down and so the outbreak was under control. But lock down will have reduced R by a greater amount, reducing the number infected (and thus the number dying) to the present day.Andy_Cooke said:
And all we really needed to do was introduce self-isolation, get everyone possible working from home, have public transport reduced by 75%+, close down cafes, pubs, and restaurants, close schools, close nighclubs, theatres, cinemas, and gyms, stop all public sports, and get everyone social-distancing by 2 metres+NerysHughes said:
The peak of the virus was at least 4 days before lockdownBig_G_NorthWales said:
Read the last paragraphScott_xP said:
(all the things enacted by then).
I accept it's arguable which is better, more short term deaths for a bit less economic damage (not if you or someone close is one who died, of course) but given the uproar over Ferguson's comments I don't think that approach would have gone down well.0 -
0 -
Things are looking awful for El Presidente.
* He can't control the supply of soldiers to protect the presidential palace. (Bad news for any "strong man" leader in any country.)
* His defence minister disses him in public and he can't sack him. (Ouch.)
* He's so stressed that he calls his poor poll showing "very unfair", adding "it is what it is". (Damned right!)
* He can't hold his own party's national convention in the town he wanted to, because opposition politicians stopped him. (How bad can this get?)
* He's had a big fence built around his palace.
* Hurling his remaining marbles out the window, he claims an elderly police-beaten protestor (fortunately now out of the ICU) may have been part of a setup involving the use of an electronic weapon.
* He's involved in litigation to try to keep his tax returns hidden.
* He is attempting to have protestors classified as "terrorists".
Parallels? Not Janio Quadros - that would be an insult to Quadros. Manuel Noriega? Getulio Vargas? James Forrestal? I only hope for the sake of Trump's family and any friends he might have that he doesn't end up like the latter two.
How long until he accuses Antifa of being paid by China?
My betting book for WH2020: extremely green on all likely non-Trump Republican candidates; green on Biden and everybody else; exposed to a Trump victory (current price 2.37, fair price maybe 10).0 -
My impression is that most teachers, like most professionals, just want a quiet life and a bit of autonomy.ydoethur said:
(Edit function not working)ydoethur said:
Teachers are not all left wing. In my school I would say there are two members of staff who are politically further left than I am. The rest are all quite right wing.squareroot2 said:
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.
Where you could have made a valid point is that teachers had to deal with Cummings from 2010 to 2014. This demonstrated to us that he’s (a) a pig ignorant stupid twat (b) a nasty bully (c) totally incompetent and therefore (d) we all hate him and find it incredibly funny that he’s trashed himself so epically.3 -
Point is that sort of thing which sticks. And they go (went?) to all sorts of social gatherings with other retired people.squareroot2 said:
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.0 -
How Johnson can look like a loser on schools when the intransigence of militant trade unions is clearly to blame is beyond me.Scott_xP said:
But somehow, he's turned it into the government's fault.0 -
The 'long haulers' tend to be relatively young and did not suffer severe disease; the long term effects, though, can be devastating:Anabobazina said:
If you are 30 years old, male, fit and healthy and with no co-morbidities, you would indeed be at low risk of hospitalisation though.Andy_Cooke said:
Who are, in the eyes of some here "unaffected" by Covid-19, and for whom "it's simply not a thing."eadric said:
That's quite fair. And I am a Boris fan, or at least a fan of Boris as was. It is a persona tragedy for him, but it is just the case: he has clearly been whacked by Covid, and that can take a long time to recover from (if you ever recover); I have close friends who have had it for months and are still very sick.TOPPING said:
If the future of the country weren't at stake you'd have to feel sorry for him - worked so hard and for so long to become PM, gets it, begins to live the high life, and then gets struck down, literally, by the event that will likely dent significantly, if not ruin his premiership.dixiedean said:
He clearly isn't 100%.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.
However, the future of the country is at stake, so, while wishing him a 100% recovery from the virus, fuck him. The sooner he leaves the better.
As are the ones hospitalised or even in intensive care, assuming they recover.
If they don't turn up in the death column, they're unaffected. Like Boris. Or, more darkly, Derek Draper.
It's one thing that's potentially very dangerous (and is a meme spreading amongst younger men in particular): that if they aren't elderly, fat, or suffering from a major illness already, they are effectively all-but-immune to it already, it doesn't affect them, and it's really not a thing for them. And quoting the death statistics only.
So the young men you cite are fairly good judges of risk I would say.
That is not to say that you can't find exceptions, merely that the risk from covid to those groups is somewhat lower than other risks we face in our daily lives.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/
For now, I don't think we have much idea of the numbers involved. Or when they might recover.0 -
Interesting split too: just 106 from hospitals for 0.6% positives rate, both by far the lowest we've seen.NerysHughes said:Considering the number of tests that have been happening that is a very low figure
877 from pillar 2, and that'll be a bit inflated lately due to the spike in mailed testing - they were being used for extra care home testing over the last couple of weeks.
0 -
Indeed.ydoethur said:
"World Kings" shouldn't be troubled by oiks any day of the week. Especially on Wednesdays.0 -
He benefits enormously from having had much harsher treatment than worse offenders.isam said:Lockdown breaker Ferguson seems to have escaped reputation unblemished from the kangaroo court
That, and the fact that the commentariat probably includes quite a few middle-aged men who like the idea of being able to bunk off to have an affair.0 -
Boffin' Boffin Bounces Back!isam said:Lockdown breaker Ferguson seems to have escaped reputation unblemished from the kangaroo court
0 -
I disagree. Usually - and in a commercial discussion - you’d be correct.rcs1000 said:
Well, it depends what you want.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite. Putting it off and off makes the less stable amongst us on the topic get ever more agitated and fearful of the outcome. It really is best just to do it, emerge blinking into the sun, check all our appendages are still present, and get on with it.contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
If you want a negotiated settlement with the EU, them a short extension makes sense. Why? Because we will hopefully be further along with other negotiations. And the further on we are with other negotiations, the more leverage we have with the EU. Simply, in any negotiation, the better the alternatives look, the more power you have.
By contrast, no extension - and few alternative trading agreements - means that EU negotiators will probably think "Hmmm... they haven't even ratified a deal with Australia yet, they're going to fold on everything at the last minute."
Now, as it happens, I don't think we'll blink in the second scenario, and I think we'll leave the Single Market (we've left the EU already of course) without a deal. The question then becomes whether doing this reduces (or increases) our negotiating position with the EU, the US and other trading partners.
But given the tendency of opponent of Brexit to try to stop it, extension will be read as a signal that the U.K. can be rolled0 -
BoZo reaches the parts other tories can't...contrarian said:How Johnson can look like a loser on schools when the intransigence of militant trade unions is clearly to blame is beyond me.
But somehow, he's turned it into the government's fault.0 -
Should that be Bonking Boffin Bounces Back?Anabobazina said:
Boffin' Boffin Bounces Back!isam said:Lockdown breaker Ferguson seems to have escaped reputation unblemished from the kangaroo court
0 -
All my wife's friends retired before 2004. Boris (and Cummings) have disgusted them.ydoethur said:
(Edit function not working)ydoethur said:
Teachers are not all left wing. In my school I would say there are two members of staff who are politically further left than I am. The rest are all quite right wing.squareroot2 said:
The key word is teachers.. all left wing pretty much.. but sad to be still.talling about Cummings.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but my wife is in a Zoom call with a dozen of her friends and they're laughing about going to Barnard Castle and having eye tests.
It's not going away.
They're all retired teachers.
Where you could have made a valid point is that teachers had to deal with Cummings from 2010 to 2014. This demonstrated to us that he’s (a) a pig ignorant stupid twat (b) a nasty bully (c) totally incompetent and therefore (d) we all hate him and find it incredibly funny that he’s trashed himself so epically.0 -
We disagree fundamentally on the need for special trade deals beyond those which allow us to export and import goods and services as a third country. I find the differences they make marginal, and I think they are a distraction. Had I been in Theresa May's shoes, I'd have proposed a five year moratorium on entering any new trade deals, as a cooling off period. It would have killed the issue and focused minds on the more important task of doing business successfully as a independent trading nation.rcs1000 said:
Well, it depends what you want.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite. Putting it off and off makes the less stable amongst us on the topic get ever more agitated and fearful of the outcome. It really is best just to do it, emerge blinking into the sun, check all our appendages are still present, and get on with it.contrarian said:
The only reason for the extension is to play for time to keep Britain in the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
That cuts both ways. If the EU want to take us into an extension, they need to give us very favourable terms to do so. Otherwise why should we go along with what they want?IanB2 said:
If we want to take, we have to give. Something the Tories seem unable to appreciate.eadric said:
The only way we could accept an extension is if they say we will not be on the hook for any of the next EU budget (beyond regular contribs), or any eurozone bailouts, coronafunds, etc. And we won't accept any new EU laws in that time (like a sudden FTT).MaxPB said:
It really depends, if the EU ask, could the UK not stipulate the circumstances under which an extension will be granted?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's not a shift as such, but a rather stronger statement than previously.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is that a shift in the EU position? I thought they had been pretty clear that one was needed all along? It is certainly the sensible position.Scott_xP said:
It's academic anyway, Boris has stupidly locked himself into a straitjacket on this and thrown away the key. Presumably the EU are just positioning themselves to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the chaos starts.
Not sure if that is even legally feasible. Would it not require Treaty change?
Before we get an extension, the question must be asked and answered: Why? What is the extension for?
Is it because we're making good progress on negotiating a long term solution but need more time to iron out the kinks?
Or is it because we're no closer than when we started on even agreeing together where we even want to end up, so the extension is to avoid making tough decisions yet and just kicking the can down the road?
An extension for the former can be argued for, an extension for the latter is absurd. That seems to be what many want though.
If you want a negotiated settlement with the EU, them a short extension makes sense. Why? Because we will hopefully be further along with other negotiations. And the further on we are with other negotiations, the more leverage we have with the EU. Simply, in any negotiation, the better the alternatives look, the more power you have.
By contrast, no extension - and few alternative trading agreements - means that EU negotiators will probably think "Hmmm... they haven't even ratified a deal with Australia yet, they're going to fold on everything at the last minute."
Now, as it happens, I don't think we'll blink in the second scenario, and I think we'll leave the Single Market (we've left the EU already of course) without a deal. The question then becomes whether doing this reduces (or increases) our negotiating position with the EU, the US and other trading partners.0
