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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited June 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

However, not all metrics are created equal, and Labour still lags behind on competency. pic.twitter.com/6O1G0swS61

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Second.
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,503
    Third?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,331
    Turd
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Labour: Strong or Weak: -33

    I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression :wink:
  • Options
    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Not all metrics are equal.

    THROW THEM IN THE SEA
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1270682450574880768?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1270659501927141378?s=20
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    What would be interesting to try and cement this as a useable tool would be to look at those same 6 questions going back in time and plot the valence index accordingly. Then see how it matches with electoral success or failure.

    Have Yougov been asking these questions longer than just the last year?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Labour are back.

    This is unqualified good news.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.

    He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,503
    FPT:

    @Burgessian:

    ‘Huckleberry Finn is well worth reading for an understanding of contemporary attitudes. Mark Twain was near enough in time to represent the period in which he set the book. One of the great American novels.

    On the impact of slavery on the societies it created in the Caribbean, V S Naipaul's "The Middle Passage" is simply brilliant. His first travel book. Sponsored by one of the Prime Ministers of the newly independent island nations. Don't think he can have expected what he got. Naipaul never let any considerations get in the way of what he believed was true.‘

    Thanks for the recommendations. I’ve obviously heard of Huck Finn but never read it. Heard of Naipaul but never read him. I’ve just got them both from Amazon, looking forward to reading them both.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.

    He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
    Agree with both you and @ydoethur .
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Wonders how long Mr Gladstone held his ultra conservative views?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-52990464
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Gladstone was around for an extremely long time. His views evolved quite significantly. Very unusually they evolved in a less conservative direction.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,224
    NHS England data out - 88
    Spanish style - 11

    New low for a weekday in several ways.

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,398
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.

    He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
    I think that's fair.

    As a somewhat floaty centre-ish voter, my take is that Starmer doesn't necessarily have what it takes to win an election, but he's someone that Johnson could lose an election to (Corbyn most certainly wasn't).

    I'd pick Starmer/Labour over Johnson/Conservative, on current evidence, but that's mostly due to not being a Johnson fan and finding Starmer ok, rather than any actual Starmer enthusiasm. Change Johnson and it would depend who replaced him.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20

    ISIS ?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,396
    I have no got round to PMQ yet.

    Did Boris comb his hair?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alanbrooke said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20

    ISIS ?
    Bart Simpson?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,396
    BluestBlue said:

    Labour: Strong or Weak: -33

    I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression :wink:

    To be fair to Sir K, he didn't.

    He clearly condemned the vandals, whilst suggesting that the statue should have gone long ago.

    Hopefully he'll hold his party members who have run Bristol for the last 10-20 years to account on that one.

    Or will it be "You're no Neil Kinnock, Mr Starmer".
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    squareroot2 said:

    Turd

    Particularly when it comes to discusing modern architecture in Edinburgh.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    MattW said:

    I have no got round to PMQ yet.

    Did Boris comb his hair?

    Not for at least a week by the state of it.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    *panicking more
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20

    https://twitter.com/tarbosaur/status/1270700760460939264?s=20

  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Malmesbury said:

    NHS England data out - 88
    Spanish style - 11

    New low for a weekday in several ways.

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    I asked IPSIS-MORI on twitter if they would ask the Personality question more often. If Starmer improves on that respect, or if Boris rating goes down, then Labour could be in with a chance.

    I doubt Sir Keir will beat useless Jezzas 40% though
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    Valence:
    Not a town on the Rhône
    but hedonic tone.

    Valence, or hedonic tone, is the affective quality referring to the intrinsic attractiveness/"good"-ness or averseness/"bad"-ness of an event, object, or situation.
    Wikipedia
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,396
    I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52988959
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Statue update:

    Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.

    For now.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    SandyRentool said:

    MattW said:

    I have no got round to PMQ yet.

    Did Boris comb his hair?

    Not for at least a week by the state of it.
    His hair is only one ridiculous aspect of the man. Having a joke for a PM will start to wear thin with all but the most ardent Boris Johnson apologists before very long
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    edited June 2020
    Jonathan said:

    Labour are back.

    This is unqualified good news.

    Whilst I would never vote for them, I do entirely agree with this. Only the realistic threat of an Opposition win can keep a Government held to account, either by the Opposition or its own MPs. Corbyn was not just disastrous for the Labour Party, he was pretty disastrous for the country as well.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075

    Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.


  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.

    He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
    I think that's fair.

    As a somewhat floaty centre-ish voter, my take is that Starmer doesn't necessarily have what it takes to win an election, but he's someone that Johnson could lose an election to (Corbyn most certainly wasn't).

    I'd pick Starmer/Labour over Johnson/Conservative, on current evidence, but that's mostly due to not being a Johnson fan and finding Starmer ok, rather than any actual Starmer enthusiasm. Change Johnson and it would depend who replaced him.
    The problem is that Johnson has surrounded himself with lightweights to try and not show up weak leadership. Better people in the Conservative Party go unnoticed. The only real possibility is Hunt.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,224
    nichomar said:

    Malmesbury said:

    NHS England data out - 88
    Spanish style - 11

    New low for a weekday in several ways.

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?
    The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.

    Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.

    The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    edited June 2020
    Malmesbury said:

    nichomar said:

    Malmesbury said:

    NHS England data out - 88
    Spanish style - 11

    New low for a weekday in several ways.

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?
    The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.

    Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.

    The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...
    Yes that drop at the end of May from over 300 deaths a day to around 20 in just one day was very notable
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    On topic I am not sure. At the end of the day each person has 1 vote (well, apart from NI, obvs). It is, usually, a bilateral or trilateral decision. It is a summation of several factors. Does this breakdown of some of these factors give any real indication as to how that summation might be changing? Maybe, but I have my doubts.

    Off topic I would suggest that Boris has about another month to show that he is going to make a full recovery from this wretched virus. If there are not clear signs of improvement by then I think there will be pressure on him to stand down. Its still too soon but the clock is ticking.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
    Me too. His arithmetic is sure dire, deducting 1921 from 2020 doesn't get you above a hundred.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Update: Apparently Mrs. Tittlemouse's treatment of insects means that she has to go.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    DavidL said:

    On topic I am not sure. At the end of the day each person has 1 vote (well, apart from NI, obvs). It is, usually, a bilateral or trilateral decision. It is a summation of several factors. Does this breakdown of some of these factors give any real indication as to how that summation might be changing? Maybe, but I have my doubts.

    Off topic I would suggest that Boris has about another month to show that he is going to make a full recovery from this wretched virus. If there are not clear signs of improvement by then I think there will be pressure on him to stand down. Its still too soon but the clock is ticking.

    Er, Scotland, and Wales, too?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    MattW said:

    BluestBlue said:

    Labour: Strong or Weak: -33

    I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression :wink:

    To be fair to Sir K, he didn't.

    He clearly condemned the vandals, whilst suggesting that the statue should have gone long ago.

    Hopefully he'll hold his party members who have run Bristol for the last 10-20 years to account on that one.

    Or will it be "You're no Neil Kinnock, Mr Starmer".
    He did go down on one knee to adopt their motif though
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,224
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Malmesbury said:

    nichomar said:

    Malmesbury said:

    NHS England data out - 88
    Spanish style - 11

    New low for a weekday in several ways.

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?
    The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.

    Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.

    The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...
    Yeo that drop at the end of May from over 300 deaths a day to around 20 in just one day was very notable
    If it wasn't so serious, it would be farcical. DogAteMyHomeworkButIDontHaveADog level stuff
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075

    Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.


    That’s fashion these days hun
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Gallowgate said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075

    Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.


    That’s fashion these days hun
    If you're a 40 year old Tory pol doing 'fashion', you're automatically cancelled.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    No, IDS is dense, Davis lazy. Starmer is neither. Otherwise this is a good critique. I have been a Tory voter all my life, but I believe Johnson to be a bag of hot air, and mendacious to boot., and ultimately he will prove to be a disaster for the Conservative brand. I think it is quite likely that all Starmer needs to do is look competent and trustworthy, and Johnson will do the rest for him. Starmer is more like Cameron. He will grow into the role.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    SandyRentool said:

    Statue update:

    Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.

    For now.

    Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    MattW said:

    I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52988959

    Crossfit 19
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,065
    A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    edited June 2020
    delete
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Statue update:

    Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.

    For now.

    Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.
    What do you do with a garden gnome with trans issues?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
    Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Statue update:

    Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.

    For now.

    Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.
    What do you do with a garden gnome with trans issues?
    Garden gnomes don't impinge greatly on my consciousness tbh. I am curious how you know.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    FPT
    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    What I said the other day:

    https://twitter.com/hughlaurie/status/1270632988573827072

    That’s a mild comment but good on Hugh Laurie for saying that.

    It won’t go unpunished, so takes some guts.
    "Well, this is splendid, comradely news! Together, we'll fight for King and country, and be sucking sausages in Berlin by teatime."
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,863
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20

    https://twitter.com/CBS6/status/1270526933772709888
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
    Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.
    Thanks - that's the chap I was thinking of, but good to have it confirmed.

    Just as well I've discovered in lockdown that it is possible to make a very pleasant pasta dish with prawns, mackerel or salmon ...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
    Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.
    PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,245
    SandyRentool said:

    Update: Apparently Mrs. Tittlemouse's treatment of insects means that she has to go.

    Her treatment? Or her grandmother's?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    No, IDS is dense, Davis lazy. Starmer is neither. Otherwise this is a good critique. I have been a Tory voter all my life, but I believe Johnson to be a bag of hot air, and mendacious to boot., and ultimately he will prove to be a disaster for the Conservative brand. I think it is quite likely that all Starmer needs to do is look competent and trustworthy, and Johnson will do the rest for him. Starmer is more like Cameron. He will grow into the role.
    He's not as clever as Cameron or as witty or as quick on his feet. But he is miles and miles ahead of either IDS or Davis. I welcome an opposition worthy of the name again. I just regret that so many who lent support to the Corbyn regime are not more embarrassed.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,308
    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
    Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.
    PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?
    That their success depends on whether Brexit is seen to benefit the NE Coast or not? In other news, the Pope is a Catholic.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20

    Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.
    Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.
    PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?
    That their success depends on whether Brexit is seen to benefit the NE Coast or not? In other news, the Pope is a Catholic.
    Obvs, but it is a bit like Mr Johnson - or Mr Farage - suddenly developing cold feet on Brexit. That chap was a BIG media agitator for British Fishxit.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html

    In my opinion this article is correct.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,863
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1270715372400807936
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    What's next ?

    Captain Morgan rum to be banned ?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Every little helps.....

    Scottish bailout puts Trump's golf resorts in line for £1m tax rebate

    Donald Trump’s Scottish golf courses are expected to get a tax rebate of nearly £1m as part of a government bailout for tourism businesses hit by the coronavirus crisis, the Guardian can reveal....

    Before the coronavirus crisis, Trump Turnberry had been due to pay £850,766 in property tax this year and Trump Aberdeenshire £121,170. The Trump Turnberry’s tax bill was recently reduced to £770,845, upon appeal....

    The revelation comes as some Democrats in the US Congress raise questions about whether it is lawful for Trump’s companies to accept any benefits from a foreign country, including bailout funds from the UK and Scottish governments.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/10/scottish-bailout-means-trumps-golf-resorts-in-line-for-1m-tax-rebate
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2020
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
    @IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.

    Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching

    I just quoted from their website
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Yorkcity said:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html

    In my opinion this article is correct.

    Mine too.
    Apart from the 4 and a half years bit.
    It's four!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,024
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
    @IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.

    Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.
    Presumably he is praising Germany for not invading Poland again.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    isam said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching

    I just quoted from their website
    I look forward to them cancelling their own manifesto.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,396
    Pulpstar said:

    What's next ?

    Captain Morgan rum to be banned ?

    Camp Coffee will be on the radar...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Yorkcity said:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html

    In my opinion this article is correct.

    One of the reasons that Blair so comprehensively outmaneuvered Michael Howard to win a comfortable majority on a sliver of the popular vote was precisely because he took him very seriously. The day before his uncontested succession, Blair called a crisis meeting of his cabinet, and commented to a friendly journalist (who quoted him as 'an informed source') 'Howard is good. We need to up our game here if we want to see him off.'

    And it is fair to say that while Howard helpfully messed up over the Hutton report, Blair's very focussed attacks on him and detailed work on his policies, plus a decision to make peace with Gordon Brown on terms that were, to put it mildly, politically disadvantageous, were a key part in the 2005 election victory.

    By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.

    Who do I see in the current PM? The shrewd political operator who took a flawed but feisty and intelligent opponent seriously and won, or the hubristic ones who dismissed their opponents as useless lightweights, and lost?

    Hmmm...tricky one.

    Which is a long winded way of saying Barwell is right.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices..
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    My Personality theory may turn out to be rubbish. But as it stands, the only LotO's with worse deficits in personality ratings than Starmer has with Boris were Michael Foot vs Maggie, Hague vs Blair, and Jezza vs Boris
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
    @IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.

    Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.
    Presumably he is praising Germany for not invading Poland again.
    In fairness its been over 80 years. Must be getting close to a record.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.

    What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.
    @IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.

    Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.
    That's good. Even ignoring the historical and geographic ignorance, equating some chi chi, reputation glossing statuary with Auschwitz is pretty special.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,245
    rkrkrk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
    I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.

    Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    ‘Blood in the water’: Dems get unexpected opening against Trump in Iowa
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/10/trump-iowa-2020-307312
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,396
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52988959

    Crossfit 19
    The chap is young end of PB - 63 years young.

    And worth getting on for $100m.

    They seem to have perhaps lost 1000 affiliates, which is 7-8%. So I see it coming through substantially uncahnged, perhaps with some branding away.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,863
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1270719957379121153
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Nigelb said:

    ‘Blood in the water’: Dems get unexpected opening against Trump in Iowa
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/10/trump-iowa-2020-307312

    As a connoisseur of mixed metaphors, I enjoyed this bit:

    “We were approaching ‘done’ status — stick a fork in us,” Sue Dvorsky, a former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said of the party’s status after the 2016 election.

    Now, she said, “the worm is turning.”
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
    I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.

    Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
    He clearly isn't 100%.
    Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.


  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,224
    I notice that no-one has make the connection between

    https://electrek.co/2020/06/09/tesla-uk-factory-rumor-gain-traction-elon-musk/

    and

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/boris-johnson-considers-giving-drivers-6000-diesel-petrol-car/
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    Yorkcity said:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html

    In my opinion this article is correct.

    One of the reasons that Blair so comprehensively outmaneuvered Michael Howard to win a comfortable majority on a sliver of the popular vote was precisely because he took him very seriously. The day before his uncontested succession, Blair called a crisis meeting of his cabinet, and commented to a friendly journalist (who quoted him as 'an informed source') 'Howard is good. We need to up our game here if we want to see him off.'

    And it is fair to say that while Howard helpfully messed up over the Hutton report, Blair's very focussed attacks on him and detailed work on his policies, plus a decision to make peace with Gordon Brown on terms that were, to put it mildly, politically disadvantageous, were a key part in the 2005 election victory.

    By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.

    Who do I see in the current PM? The shrewd political operator who took a flawed but feisty and intelligent opponent seriously and won, or the hubristic ones who dismissed their opponents as useless lightweights, and lost?

    Hmmm...tricky one.

    Which is a long winded way of saying Barwell is right.
    I believe most of the battle for any Labour leader of the opposition.Is that voters can see that they can be PM.
    SKS fits that criteria as did Blair in 1994.
    My father a life long Conservative said to me that Starmer is impressive.
    I think the same, and was relieved that the Labour Party, and the country has a credible alternative .
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,056
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.

    I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.

    I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.

    However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.

    The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.

    How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
    Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.

    He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
    Not really, he should let the government do his digging for him, and man, they are accomplished with a shovel.

    The only exception is if one has a fiendish plan up one's sleeve which can derail government. An example being Shadow Chancellor Osborn's plan for inheritance tax which helped derail Brown's election that never was.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,362
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
    I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.

    Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
    BoJo clearly isn't enjoying this. And there's not much in his life story that indicates he has the resilience to keep being battered like this relentlessly and indefinitely. He can't even have a holiday to look forward to.
    isam said:

    My Personality theory may turn out to be rubbish. But as it stands, the only LotO's with worse deficits in personality ratings than Starmer has with Boris were Michael Foot vs Maggie, Hague vs Blair, and Jezza vs Boris

    We probably won't ever find out. The list of possible successors doesn't look like it has a personality between them. Rory S was the only one who did, and he got lost in the purge.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1270719957379121153

    Most deaths, longest lockdown, deepest recession and now excluded from our neighbours.

    British exceptionalism.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,056
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1270688071109967873?s=20

    https://twitter.com/CBS6/status/1270526933772709888
    Bloody IS!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,245
    edited June 2020
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
    I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.

    Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
    He clearly isn't 100%.
    Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.


    If the future of the country weren't at stake you'd have to feel sorry for him - worked so hard and for so long to become PM, gets it, begins to live the high life, and then gets struck down, literally, by the event that will likely dent significantly, if not ruin his premiership.

    However, the future of the country is at stake, so, while wishing him a 100% recovery from the virus, fuck him. The sooner he leaves the better.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?

    They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.

    Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.
    You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.
    I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.

    Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
    Well fair play for putting money on it. I think the rules are 'cease to be leader of Conservative party' (there was a bit of a controversy with T May I think which I lost money on). I'm not sure even if Boris announced he was standing down today, whether that would happen by end of month in practice.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    Posted a link to this on a previous thread, but worth reposting - a comprehensive and impressive study:

    Preliminary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 importation & establishment of UK transmission lineages
    https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507
    ...Here we provide estimates of trends through time in the number and sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions into the UK. We obtain these estimates by combining data on the numbers of inbound travellers to the UK, estimated numbers of infections worldwide, and large-scale virus genome sequencing undertaken by the COG-UK consortium. Our preliminary analysis provides a platform for evaluating future trends in virus introduction, however it does not attempt to measure the relative contributions to the UK epidemic of importation versus local transmission, nor model the possible impact of public health interventions on virus introduction.

    The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows:

    The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate.

    The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time.

    Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks.

    The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020.

    We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic.

    The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing.

    Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.

    The COG-UK consortium has to date generated >20,000 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from infections in the UK. Phylogenetic analysis of these genomes, and those from other countries, can be used to identify individual UK transmission lineages....
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