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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed
However, not all metrics are created equal, and Labour still lags behind on competency. pic.twitter.com/6O1G0swS61
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Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.0
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Second.0
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Third?0
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Turd0
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Labour: Strong or Weak: -33
I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression
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Not all metrics are equal.
THROW THEM IN THE SEA0 -
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What would be interesting to try and cement this as a useable tool would be to look at those same 6 questions going back in time and plot the valence index accordingly. Then see how it matches with electoral success or failure.
Have Yougov been asking these questions longer than just the last year?1 -
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.0 -
Labour are back.
This is unqualified good news.0 -
Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.0 -
FPT:
@Burgessian:
‘Huckleberry Finn is well worth reading for an understanding of contemporary attitudes. Mark Twain was near enough in time to represent the period in which he set the book. One of the great American novels.
On the impact of slavery on the societies it created in the Caribbean, V S Naipaul's "The Middle Passage" is simply brilliant. His first travel book. Sponsored by one of the Prime Ministers of the newly independent island nations. Don't think he can have expected what he got. Naipaul never let any considerations get in the way of what he believed was true.‘
Thanks for the recommendations. I’ve obviously heard of Huck Finn but never read it. Heard of Naipaul but never read him. I’ve just got them both from Amazon, looking forward to reading them both.0 -
Agree with both you and @ydoethur .MaxPB said:
Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.0 -
Wonders how long Mr Gladstone held his ultra conservative views?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-529904640 -
Gladstone was around for an extremely long time. His views evolved quite significantly. Very unusually they evolved in a less conservative direction.0
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Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.0 -
NHS England data out - 88
Spanish style - 11
New low for a weekday in several ways.
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I think that's fair.MaxPB said:
Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
As a somewhat floaty centre-ish voter, my take is that Starmer doesn't necessarily have what it takes to win an election, but he's someone that Johnson could lose an election to (Corbyn most certainly wasn't).
I'd pick Starmer/Labour over Johnson/Conservative, on current evidence, but that's mostly due to not being a Johnson fan and finding Starmer ok, rather than any actual Starmer enthusiasm. Change Johnson and it would depend who replaced him.0 -
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I have no got round to PMQ yet.
Did Boris comb his hair?0 -
Bart Simpson?Alanbrooke said:0 -
To be fair to Sir K, he didn't.BluestBlue said:Labour: Strong or Weak: -33
I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression
He clearly condemned the vandals, whilst suggesting that the statue should have gone long ago.
Hopefully he'll hold his party members who have run Bristol for the last 10-20 years to account on that one.
Or will it be "You're no Neil Kinnock, Mr Starmer".0 -
Particularly when it comes to discusing modern architecture in Edinburgh.squareroot2 said:Turd
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Not for at least a week by the state of it.MattW said:I have no got round to PMQ yet.
Did Boris comb his hair?0 -
*panicking morerkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.0 -
The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075
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How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?Malmesbury said:NHS England data out - 88
Spanish style - 11
New low for a weekday in several ways.0 -
I asked IPSIS-MORI on twitter if they would ask the Personality question more often. If Starmer improves on that respect, or if Boris rating goes down, then Labour could be in with a chance.
I doubt Sir Keir will beat useless Jezzas 40% though0 -
Valence:
Not a town on the Rhône
but hedonic tone.
Valence, or hedonic tone, is the affective quality referring to the intrinsic attractiveness/"good"-ness or averseness/"bad"-ness of an event, object, or situation.
Wikipedia
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I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.0
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I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-529889590 -
Statue update:
Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.
For now.1 -
His hair is only one ridiculous aspect of the man. Having a joke for a PM will start to wear thin with all but the most ardent Boris Johnson apologists before very longSandyRentool said:
Not for at least a week by the state of it.MattW said:I have no got round to PMQ yet.
Did Boris comb his hair?1 -
Whilst I would never vote for them, I do entirely agree with this. Only the realistic threat of an Opposition win can keep a Government held to account, either by the Opposition or its own MPs. Corbyn was not just disastrous for the Labour Party, he was pretty disastrous for the country as well.Jonathan said:Labour are back.
This is unqualified good news.2 -
Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.Richard_Nabavi said:The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1270703596007555075
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The problem is that Johnson has surrounded himself with lightweights to try and not show up weak leadership. Better people in the Conservative Party go unnoticed. The only real possibility is Hunt.Selebian said:
I think that's fair.MaxPB said:
Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
As a somewhat floaty centre-ish voter, my take is that Starmer doesn't necessarily have what it takes to win an election, but he's someone that Johnson could lose an election to (Corbyn most certainly wasn't).
I'd pick Starmer/Labour over Johnson/Conservative, on current evidence, but that's mostly due to not being a Johnson fan and finding Starmer ok, rather than any actual Starmer enthusiasm. Change Johnson and it would depend who replaced him.1 -
The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.nichomar said:
How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?Malmesbury said:NHS England data out - 88
Spanish style - 11
New low for a weekday in several ways.
Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.
The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...0 -
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
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Yes that drop at the end of May from over 300 deaths a day to around 20 in just one day was very notableMalmesbury said:
The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.nichomar said:
How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?Malmesbury said:NHS England data out - 88
Spanish style - 11
New low for a weekday in several ways.
Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.
The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...0 -
On topic I am not sure. At the end of the day each person has 1 vote (well, apart from NI, obvs). It is, usually, a bilateral or trilateral decision. It is a summation of several factors. Does this breakdown of some of these factors give any real indication as to how that summation might be changing? Maybe, but I have my doubts.
Off topic I would suggest that Boris has about another month to show that he is going to make a full recovery from this wretched virus. If there are not clear signs of improvement by then I think there will be pressure on him to stand down. Its still too soon but the clock is ticking.0 -
Me too. His arithmetic is sure dire, deducting 1921 from 2020 doesn't get you above a hundred.Theuniondivvie said:
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
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Update: Apparently Mrs. Tittlemouse's treatment of insects means that she has to go.0
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Er, Scotland, and Wales, too?DavidL said:On topic I am not sure. At the end of the day each person has 1 vote (well, apart from NI, obvs). It is, usually, a bilateral or trilateral decision. It is a summation of several factors. Does this breakdown of some of these factors give any real indication as to how that summation might be changing? Maybe, but I have my doubts.
Off topic I would suggest that Boris has about another month to show that he is going to make a full recovery from this wretched virus. If there are not clear signs of improvement by then I think there will be pressure on him to stand down. Its still too soon but the clock is ticking.0 -
He did go down on one knee to adopt their motif thoughMattW said:
To be fair to Sir K, he didn't.BluestBlue said:Labour: Strong or Weak: -33
I'm sure bending the knee to mob vandalism will do nothing to intensify that impression
He clearly condemned the vandals, whilst suggesting that the statue should have gone long ago.
Hopefully he'll hold his party members who have run Bristol for the last 10-20 years to account on that one.
Or will it be "You're no Neil Kinnock, Mr Starmer".0 -
If it wasn't so serious, it would be farcical. DogAteMyHomeworkButIDontHaveADog level stuffRichard_Tyndall said:
Yeo that drop at the end of May from over 300 deaths a day to around 20 in just one day was very notableMalmesbury said:
The Spanish have been roasted in the FT (and elsewhere) for changing their reporting to deaths in the last 36 hours. Back dating happens silently.nichomar said:
How are you estimating a Spanish equivalence and what evidence do you have that the under reporting is ongoing?Malmesbury said:NHS England data out - 88
Spanish style - 11
New low for a weekday in several ways.
Since reporting is slow (as here), counting yesterday only makes for a low number.
The Spanish government deserves everything they get for this...0 -
That’s fashion these days hunTheuniondivvie said:
Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.Richard_Nabavi said:The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/12707035960075550750 -
Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
If you're a 40 year old Tory pol doing 'fashion', you're automatically cancelled.Gallowgate said:
That’s fashion these days hunTheuniondivvie said:
Telling omission of Rishi's trouser bottoms, still being taken up by his mum I guess.Richard_Nabavi said:The Chancellor seems to have a job on the side modelling natty suits for John Lewis:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/12707035960075550750 -
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
No, IDS is dense, Davis lazy. Starmer is neither. Otherwise this is a good critique. I have been a Tory voter all my life, but I believe Johnson to be a bag of hot air, and mendacious to boot., and ultimately he will prove to be a disaster for the Conservative brand. I think it is quite likely that all Starmer needs to do is look competent and trustworthy, and Johnson will do the rest for him. Starmer is more like Cameron. He will grow into the role.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.3 -
Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.SandyRentool said:Statue update:
Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.
For now.0 -
Crossfit 19MattW said:I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-529889590 -
A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching0 -
delete-1
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What do you do with a garden gnome with trans issues?DavidL said:
Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.SandyRentool said:Statue update:
Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.
For now.0 -
Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.Carnyx said:
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
Garden gnomes don't impinge greatly on my consciousness tbh. I am curious how you know.algarkirk said:
What do you do with a garden gnome with trans issues?DavidL said:
Really?? All that entomophobia? Just racist if you ask me.SandyRentool said:Statue update:
Having conducted extensive research I have decided that our garden ornament depicting Mrs. Tittlemouse can stay.
For now.0 -
FPT
"Well, this is splendid, comradely news! Together, we'll fight for King and country, and be sucking sausages in Berlin by teatime."Casino_Royale said:
That’s a mild comment but good on Hugh Laurie for saying that.rottenborough said:What I said the other day:
https://twitter.com/hughlaurie/status/1270632988573827072
It won’t go unpunished, so takes some guts.1 -
Thanks - that's the chap I was thinking of, but good to have it confirmed.Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.Carnyx said:
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=20
Just as well I've discovered in lockdown that it is possible to make a very pleasant pasta dish with prawns, mackerel or salmon ...0 -
PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.Carnyx said:
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
Her treatment? Or her grandmother's?SandyRentool said:Update: Apparently Mrs. Tittlemouse's treatment of insects means that she has to go.
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He's not as clever as Cameron or as witty or as quick on his feet. But he is miles and miles ahead of either IDS or Davis. I welcome an opposition worthy of the name again. I just regret that so many who lent support to the Corbyn regime are not more embarrassed.Nigel_Foremain said:
No, IDS is dense, Davis lazy. Starmer is neither. Otherwise this is a good critique. I have been a Tory voter all my life, but I believe Johnson to be a bag of hot air, and mendacious to boot., and ultimately he will prove to be a disaster for the Conservative brand. I think it is quite likely that all Starmer needs to do is look competent and trustworthy, and Johnson will do the rest for him. Starmer is more like Cameron. He will grow into the role.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
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That their success depends on whether Brexit is seen to benefit the NE Coast or not? In other news, the Pope is a Catholic.Carnyx said:
PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.Carnyx said:
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.0 -
Obvs, but it is a bit like Mr Johnson - or Mr Farage - suddenly developing cold feet on Brexit. That chap was a BIG media agitator for British Fishxit.Luckyguy1983 said:
That their success depends on whether Brexit is seen to benefit the NE Coast or not? In other news, the Pope is a Catholic.Carnyx said:
PS If HE of all people is worried what does that imply for the SCons tidemark around the NE coasts - and D&G too for that matter?Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure if he's one of the real fat cats but he was very vocal during the SCon revival (ha ha, remember that?) and telling all and sundry that fishing was coming home through Brexit. His main claim to fame was being one of the stars of the BBC's Trawlermen documentary series.Carnyx said:
Is he actually one of the pro-Brexity East Coast big fishing lairds? The small inshore fishermen have usually been much more ambivalent or unhappy about Brexit.Theuniondivvie said:Mad remoaner not getting with the programme.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/1270427204107644928?s=200 -
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html
In my opinion this article is correct.0 -
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What's next ?
Captain Morgan rum to be banned ?0 -
Every little helps.....
Scottish bailout puts Trump's golf resorts in line for £1m tax rebate
Donald Trump’s Scottish golf courses are expected to get a tax rebate of nearly £1m as part of a government bailout for tourism businesses hit by the coronavirus crisis, the Guardian can reveal....
Before the coronavirus crisis, Trump Turnberry had been due to pay £850,766 in property tax this year and Trump Aberdeenshire £121,170. The Trump Turnberry’s tax bill was recently reduced to £770,845, upon appeal....
The revelation comes as some Democrats in the US Congress raise questions about whether it is lawful for Trump’s companies to accept any benefits from a foreign country, including bailout funds from the UK and Scottish governments.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/10/scottish-bailout-means-trumps-golf-resorts-in-line-for-1m-tax-rebate0 -
@IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.Theuniondivvie said:
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.0 -
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.0 -
I just quoted from their websiteOnlyLivingBoy said:A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching3 -
Mine too.Yorkcity said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html
In my opinion this article is correct.
Apart from the 4 and a half years bit.
It's four!0 -
Presumably he is praising Germany for not invading Poland again.Alistair said:
@IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.Theuniondivvie said:
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.0 -
I look forward to them cancelling their own manifesto.isam said:
I just quoted from their websiteOnlyLivingBoy said:A lot of people opining on the motivations of BLM protesters. So here are some BLM protesters describing their motivations to inform that debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/10/black-people-cannot-keep-suffering-young-protesters-on-why-they-are-marching1 -
One of the reasons that Blair so comprehensively outmaneuvered Michael Howard to win a comfortable majority on a sliver of the popular vote was precisely because he took him very seriously. The day before his uncontested succession, Blair called a crisis meeting of his cabinet, and commented to a friendly journalist (who quoted him as 'an informed source') 'Howard is good. We need to up our game here if we want to see him off.'Yorkcity said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html
In my opinion this article is correct.
And it is fair to say that while Howard helpfully messed up over the Hutton report, Blair's very focussed attacks on him and detailed work on his policies, plus a decision to make peace with Gordon Brown on terms that were, to put it mildly, politically disadvantageous, were a key part in the 2005 election victory.
By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.
Who do I see in the current PM? The shrewd political operator who took a flawed but feisty and intelligent opponent seriously and won, or the hubristic ones who dismissed their opponents as useless lightweights, and lost?
Hmmm...tricky one.
Which is a long winded way of saying Barwell is right.0 -
Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices..peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
0 -
My Personality theory may turn out to be rubbish. But as it stands, the only LotO's with worse deficits in personality ratings than Starmer has with Boris were Michael Foot vs Maggie, Hague vs Blair, and Jezza vs Boris0
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In fairness its been over 80 years. Must be getting close to a record.williamglenn said:
Presumably he is praising Germany for not invading Poland again.Alistair said:
@IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.Theuniondivvie said:
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.1 -
That's good. Even ignoring the historical and geographic ignorance, equating some chi chi, reputation glossing statuary with Auschwitz is pretty special.Alistair said:
@IrvineWelsh Irvine, it’s precisely because Germany has bravely confronted her past that Auschwitz still stands as a memorial of man’s inhumanity to man.Theuniondivvie said:
What was his tweet? I enjoyed his views on the 1200 year old nation state very much.Alistair said:I see Simon Clarke MP has finally worked out where Auschwitz is on a map and deleted his tweet.
Lasted 23 hours with an absolutely terrific ratio.0 -
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.1 -
‘Blood in the water’: Dems get unexpected opening against Trump in Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/10/trump-iowa-2020-3073120 -
The chap is young end of PB - 63 years young.Pulpstar said:
Crossfit 19MattW said:I see that Greg Glassman hass gone from Crossfit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52988959
And worth getting on for $100m.
They seem to have perhaps lost 1000 affiliates, which is 7-8%. So I see it coming through substantially uncahnged, perhaps with some branding away.0 -
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As a connoisseur of mixed metaphors, I enjoyed this bit:Nigelb said:‘Blood in the water’: Dems get unexpected opening against Trump in Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/10/trump-iowa-2020-307312
“We were approaching ‘done’ status — stick a fork in us,” Sue Dvorsky, a former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said of the party’s status after the 2016 election.
Now, she said, “the worm is turning.”0 -
He clearly isn't 100%.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.
1 -
I notice that no-one has make the connection between
https://electrek.co/2020/06/09/tesla-uk-factory-rumor-gain-traction-elon-musk/
and
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/boris-johnson-considers-giving-drivers-6000-diesel-petrol-car/0 -
I believe most of the battle for any Labour leader of the opposition.Is that voters can see that they can be PM.ydoethur said:
One of the reasons that Blair so comprehensively outmaneuvered Michael Howard to win a comfortable majority on a sliver of the popular vote was precisely because he took him very seriously. The day before his uncontested succession, Blair called a crisis meeting of his cabinet, and commented to a friendly journalist (who quoted him as 'an informed source') 'Howard is good. We need to up our game here if we want to see him off.'Yorkcity said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/gavin-barwell-we-underestimate-starmer-at-our-peril.html
In my opinion this article is correct.
And it is fair to say that while Howard helpfully messed up over the Hutton report, Blair's very focussed attacks on him and detailed work on his policies, plus a decision to make peace with Gordon Brown on terms that were, to put it mildly, politically disadvantageous, were a key part in the 2005 election victory.
By contrast Brown and May, who never took Cameron or Corbyn seriously, ended up being humiliated.
Who do I see in the current PM? The shrewd political operator who took a flawed but feisty and intelligent opponent seriously and won, or the hubristic ones who dismissed their opponents as useless lightweights, and lost?
Hmmm...tricky one.
Which is a long winded way of saying Barwell is right.
SKS fits that criteria as did Blair in 1994.
My father a life long Conservative said to me that Starmer is impressive.
I think the same, and was relieved that the Labour Party, and the country has a credible alternative .0 -
Not really, he should let the government do his digging for him, and man, they are accomplished with a shovel.MaxPB said:
Starmer's other problem is that while he might be reasonable at spotting where the government has gone wrong after the fact he's been absolutely abject at suggesting a better way beforehand. An "I told you so" moment without actually telling the government so just doesn't work. His letter writing is falling much flatter than I think he hoped for this reason.ydoethur said:
I’ve just listened. Johnson has upped his game somewhat. I’d still give it to Starmer on points although he made a silly error asking two questions in one which allowed Johnson to dodge both.IshmaelZ said:Starmer sounded very peevish at pmqs.
I think Starmer, truthfully, isn’t a very good speaker. He can be hesitant and his habit of stumbling over his words suggests he’s nervous. He doesn’t have a loud voice and I think he’s used to conversation rather than projection. Quite a lot of his career was either in small courts or back office functions (unlike say, Michael Howard) and that may be showing. Tony Blair he isn’t.
However, he’s also probing, generally reasonable, obviously very well informed and very intelligent. Just by being there, he gets Labour a hearing again, so I would expect the don’t knows figure to go down. Not necessarily all in Labour’s favour, but people will pay attention.
The reason he’s had such a good press up to now is he’s made Johnson look like a bumbling oaf and we all have unfond memories of Corbyn’s shouting and ranting, usually with no point, rhyme or reason attached. He’s also fortunate that an empty chamber suits him perfectly as it allows him to keep the temperature low, and leave his opponent (essentially a populist rabble rouser) looking very flat.
How long all of that will last I don’t know. I think it’s not static. Either he will improve his delivery skills and gain confidence, or he will become another Duncan Smith or David Davis. My money would probably be on the former.
He needs to set out what Labour would be doing about the current problems so that when the government fucks up he has a set of ideas to fall back on as a Labour alternative.
The only exception is if one has a fiendish plan up one's sleeve which can derail government. An example being Shadow Chancellor Osborn's plan for inheritance tax which helped derail Brown's election that never was.0 -
BoJo clearly isn't enjoying this. And there's not much in his life story that indicates he has the resilience to keep being battered like this relentlessly and indefinitely. He can't even have a holiday to look forward to.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
We probably won't ever find out. The list of possible successors doesn't look like it has a personality between them. Rory S was the only one who did, and he got lost in the purge.isam said:My Personality theory may turn out to be rubbish. But as it stands, the only LotO's with worse deficits in personality ratings than Starmer has with Boris were Michael Foot vs Maggie, Hague vs Blair, and Jezza vs Boris
0 -
Most deaths, longest lockdown, deepest recession and now excluded from our neighbours.Scott_xP said:
British exceptionalism.2 -
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If the future of the country weren't at stake you'd have to feel sorry for him - worked so hard and for so long to become PM, gets it, begins to live the high life, and then gets struck down, literally, by the event that will likely dent significantly, if not ruin his premiership.dixiedean said:
He clearly isn't 100%.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.
Ironic really. He spent a lot of his pre-virus Premiership on holiday when he ought to have been working.
However, the future of the country is at stake, so, while wishing him a 100% recovery from the virus, fuck him. The sooner he leaves the better.2 -
Well fair play for putting money on it. I think the rules are 'cease to be leader of Conservative party' (there was a bit of a controversy with T May I think which I lost money on). I'm not sure even if Boris announced he was standing down today, whether that would happen by end of month in practice.TOPPING said:
I just backed a bit more at 99s. I think BoJo will be like TMay. ie it's obvious they're not up to it and it's just a matter of time before they are found out. When will that be? Well with May it took two years and I have backed Boris to be out by Sep 2021. I really hope that he goes this month but can't quite see it.rkrkrk said:
You're in luck. Betfair has him at 99/1 to leave this month and 15/1 and 14.5/1 to leave between July - Sept and Oct - Dec respectively. Personally I'd lay at those prices.peter_from_putney said:
Indeed so, but do those Tory MPs include Boris himself? If so, I can't see him staying in post for more than about another six months.rkrkrk said:Trend looks good for Labour polling generally. Would be nice to see Labour in the lead. Will we see Tories start to panic if Starmer pulls ahead?
They shouldn't. But in their heart of hearts there must be more than a few Tory MPs who doubt whether Boris is up to the job.
Then again, he was struggling health-wise today at PMQs and, as I have said a zillion times on here, my view is that now is not the time to have a sub-par PM. But we shall see if he, his doctor, and his Party MPs agree.0 -
Posted a link to this on a previous thread, but worth reposting - a comprehensive and impressive study:
Preliminary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 importation & establishment of UK transmission lineages
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507
...Here we provide estimates of trends through time in the number and sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions into the UK. We obtain these estimates by combining data on the numbers of inbound travellers to the UK, estimated numbers of infections worldwide, and large-scale virus genome sequencing undertaken by the COG-UK consortium. Our preliminary analysis provides a platform for evaluating future trends in virus introduction, however it does not attempt to measure the relative contributions to the UK epidemic of importation versus local transmission, nor model the possible impact of public health interventions on virus introduction.
The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows:
The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate.
The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time.
Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks.
The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020.
We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic.
The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing.
Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.
The COG-UK consortium has to date generated >20,000 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from infections in the UK. Phylogenetic analysis of these genomes, and those from other countries, can be used to identify individual UK transmission lineages....
3
