I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
Sunset Song - WWI The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie - WW2
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
I wonder who is manning these phone banks and email factories hounding MPs?
Is your premiss that this is the work of someone like Owen Jones and his Twitter followers rather than actual Conservative voters? Are you actually so naive that you think that Conservative voters do not care about this, and that polling such as in the Daily Mail is just fake news?
I would put anyone who contacted their MP about what Dom did back in April on a watch list.
Have they nothing better to do ? Definitely worth the watching.
Nothing better to do? What like not just complain, but build up watchlists of people complaining?
I think the Govt, in its messages today, has missed the point re people obeying the rules. It is pleading with people to do the right thing regardless of the Cummings issue. Those that believe it is the right thing will almost certainly do so even if they are angry about Cummings.
However there are two other groups of people who largely followed the rules who may now not.
There are those who don't give a toss, but didn't want to get into trouble.
There are those who think the lockdown is nonsense, or has gone too far or who want the economy to get going again, but again didn't want to get into trouble.
These people aren't angry with Cummings, but may well break the rules in greater numbers. Boris won't lose these people's vote, and the former may well be non-voters anyway.
Those that are angry, will probably not break the rules, but Boris will probably lose their vote. But as people say the next election is a long way off.
What I hate in this is hypocrisy. I wonder how many people who are on Furlough are actually working? I am coming across it on an hourly basis. "Yeah im on Furlough but I am working a bit" I wonder how many of those people are saying Cummings should get the sack?
You raise an interesting point. Money Box was reporting widespread abuse by employers this week (the implication was small employers). Even employees finding out they were furloughed only after receiving their payslip. It is particularly hard for employees of small companies to whistleblow. Even though they are protected in law, the practicalities are difficult.
There are huge abuses going on. I know some self employed who are claiming their £2500 but are carrying on working, they just will not invoice for the work they are doing until August. They know there is no chance of any Government audits as the Government simply do not have enough staff. Yet these peeple would consider what Cummings did is far worse than what they are doing.
Bluntly, Cummings actions were far worse. Fiddling the figures for a bit of extra income is merely a venial in & I wouldn’t be surprised if the government had run the numbers & decided that the extra cash injection into the economy was probably a good thing on net so best to turn a blind eye.
What Cummings did was to break isolation, putting many other members of the public at risk: He could easily have killed people. The fact that by the grace of fortune he was not forced to stop en-route & managed to isolate in the family house in Durham just means that he (and those whom he might have infected) got lucky. They still ended up with their son in hospital, where it’s entirely possible that his wife infected a bunch of people.
For me personally there’s no question that Cummings’ actions were worse than fiddling a few £1000. He put lives at risk.
(I still predict that he will stay in post & this too shall pass, but the damage will be done.)
Easily have killed people? There is 1-2% chance of dying from Covid and during his journey he did not get within 2 metres of anyone apart from his wife and son. When he got to his destination his family isolated for the required time. He was daft to do it but to say that he could have easily killed people is stretching it somewhat.
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
I wonder who is manning these phone banks and email factories hounding MPs?
Is your premiss that this is the work of someone like Owen Jones and his Twitter followers rather than actual Conservative voters? Are you actually so naive that you think that Conservative voters do not care about this, and that polling such as in the Daily Mail is just fake news?
I would put anyone who contacted their MP about what Dom did back in April on a watch list.
Have they nothing better to do ? Definitely worth the watching.
That has put me in a conundrum because I agree with you that I wouldn't email my MP about it, although in fairness I haven't had a death in the family or missed meeting a new grandchild, etc, etc.
I also think someone who has emailed their MP and then looks at your and my posts on here and sees the amount of time we spend on here also might conclude we should also be put on a watch list instead.
By my reckoning there's probably something closer to a 20 seat majority while Dom is still in post. Hopefully it's lower or its pushed the government into a minorty position. That's the only pressure that will force Boris to make the change.
What government legislation are they going to vote against? And do they think 2019 Tory voters - 97% of whom still support the Tories even according to the worst polls - will forgive that kind of attack on their own Prime Minister? Most Tory voters' allegiance is still rock-steady, despite a week of endless media onslaught.
There’s no disputing that 97% of GE19 Tory voters would still vote for them according to the polls. However there’s also no disputing that according to the polls, a majority of GE19 Tory voters are unhappy with Dominic Cummings, something you constantly froth about only being a concern of Twitter leftys. That is clearly untrue.
Doesn’t stop you though in the name of provoking a reaction.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
Sunset Song - WWI The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie - WW2
If we're on WW2 I do like Waugh's Officers and Gentlemen. Abd thanks everyone for all the recommendations - duly noted for the next virtual bookshop trip.
I refer you to the fact that I predicted this outcome from Day 1. If it were up to me, the story would have died there, but it has received such fanatical media attention, not to mention 50 squillion consecutive headers on here, until this one, that I don't feel the slightest bit bad about rubbing it in.
Give it a rest will you. You’re so boring and add nothing to the discussion.
If being right from the moment the story broke is nothing, then I compare very favourably to those who contributed less than nothing
Once again, you’re adding nothing to the discussion, you’re just merely attempting to provoke a reaction. You’re a troll and nothing else.
Yes, of course people who dare not to agree with the great Gallowgate are trolls. Only your opinions are permitted, your will is absolute.
But do you sometimes look around you and wonder why the reality of the world doesn't match your immaculate thoughts, even though you're always right?
I suppose it must be the world that is wrong
And there you are, doing it again.
I disagree with @Philip_Thompson on a lot of things but at least he doesn’t post everything for the purpose of provoking a reaction. You’re not interested in any debate or discussion, you just want to wind everyone up.
I have no idea what you're interested in, and honestly I don't much care. Feel free not to read if you don't like it. You don't seem to be able to handle opposing points of view, so why you should choose to expose yourself to them is a mystery to me.
You claim to not like Twitter yet you perpetually whinge about it, so maybe sort yourself out first.
Maybe sort out your own hypocrisy, since you love those posters who mindlessly copy and paste hundreds of Tweets a day without comment in a rather bot-like fashion, but then attack posters who are actually capable of formulating arguments on their own?
I only attack you for being a troll. If you don’t like it, maybe don’t be a troll.
I would call you a troll, but I don't think your incoherent flailing really merits being called anything at all.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Your objection would presumably eliminate Coles’ Drink to Yesterday as well.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
You need to realise your constant negative posting is not going to change a single mind on here.
How many minds do you think you have changed on here lol?! People come on here to rant, vent and perhaps to wind up those that have ridiculous views. Every now and again there is an informative post, that informs (maybe shifts opinion a little) but rarely genuinely changes the minds of those with entrenched positions.
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
I wonder who is manning these phone banks and email factories hounding MPs?
Is your premiss that this is the work of someone like Owen Jones and his Twitter followers rather than actual Conservative voters? Are you actually so naive that you think that Conservative voters do not care about this, and that polling such as in the Daily Mail is just fake news?
I would put anyone who contacted their MP about what Dom did back in April on a watch list.
Have they nothing better to do ? Definitely worth the watching.
Nothing better to do? What like not just complain, but build up watchlists of people complaining?
Local elections get about 30% turn out.
The idea that the public are engaged enough bar referendums (which we wont be having for 30+ years) or General Elections are for the birds.
You have to be seriously motivated to email an MP - the Venn diagram with average voter is easy to draw..
Out of the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark - with similar climates, culture, societies, economies, population densities, and physical connectivity, and healthcare quality - all the factors that feed into infectivity and death tolls):
Per capita death rates:
Economic impact forecast:
And Sweden were hoping to protect their care homes and elderly - which has completely failed. They were hoping to get sufficient herd immunity to protect against a second wave - and they're nowhere near.
And their death rate has plateaued around 60-70 per day (which would be around 400-500 per day scaled up to the UK).
If Norway did lock down too hard, then that means they've now got far more scope going forwards, and they erred on the side of saving a hell of a lot more lives and preserving their economies better, at the cost of a couple of difficult months. Best side on which to err, really.
Point of order, Denmarks population density is completely different to Norway and Sweden.
Norway 15 P/km2 Sweden 25 P/Km2 Denmark 137 P/Km2
Denmark is more densely populated than France or Spain for example.
Sweden doing so much worse than Denmark is a big problem for those who think lockdown wasnt important.
Very good point; my apologies. Denmark would have every excuse for being a lot worse hit than Sweden, all else being equal.
Need to be careful with raw population density figures. Urban density probably matters more. Vast swathes of nothingness won't prevent spread, an absence of mass public transport etc might.
Fair enough: we can see the distribution of density on the following map.
Denmark definitely looks more vulnerable than Sweden
The German achievement looks all the more impressive, too. They really are a lot better at a lot of things than we are. I think it would be worth figuring out why that is. They are an obvious role model to emulate, it's odd we spend so much time looking to the US.
Agreed there, certainly.
And it's plausible that Norway could indeed cope without a full lockdown but with restrictions maybe a bit tougher than the ones Sweden used at the current time. Their distribution is almost ideal to cope with something like this, and their social/cultural setup likewise.
You can see why Sweden thought it might be practical initially, but I think they should have shifted tack when it wasn't working so well. Very good job Denmark didn't try it.
And we should be looking very carefully at everything Germany has done and is doing through this as the most useful comparable country that is doing comparatively well.
Eyeballing at what's happening in Sweden (though the death data take ages to be complete), it looks like a Swedish Soft Lockdown is enough to hold R at about 1. Not going up much, not going down much.
So if you get in early enough, a Swedish Soft approach works. Otherwise, you have the tedious expensive faff of a harder lockdown to get the numbers down, at least to the point that cases are trackable.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
Revolver was released, can't think of anything else..
Carmarthen by-election not ring a bell?
Lady Megan Lloyd- George passed away?
The effect was more important than the cause.
“The contest was significant in that it resulted in the election of Gwynfor Evans, the first ever Plaid Cymru Member of Parliament. Plaid Cymru's victory in the Carmarthen constituency, a seminal moment for Welsh nationalism, was part of a wider process toward Welsh devolution which eventually led to the establishment of the Welsh Assembly in 1999.
Evans' surprise win is credited with laying the foundations for Winnie Ewing's victory for the Scottish National Party at the 1967 Hamilton by-election, an event of equal significance for Scottish nationalism.”
Incidentally, not widely known but very good is a trilogy on the Second World War - The Eighth Champion of Christendom, Reluctant Odyssey and Warfare Accomplished by Edith Pargeter. She interviewed servicemen as they returned to civilian life and distilled their stories into the adventures of one man in three different theatres. And she writes very well, particularly in not pulling punches about the horrors of war and the traumas they cause. Well worth reading if you can get hold of it.
Have you read Parade's End? Very highly thought of, but I have never come across a novel where each and every character is so utterly and irredeemably awful, not - I think - intentionally in every case. I mean there's Vanity Fair but at least one can fancy Becky Sharp.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Your objection would presumably eliminate Coles’ Drink to Yesterday as well.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
Not my objection, just respecting the earlier stipulation. But Drinkie and Toast (sequal, on a quick check) now noted for shopping list, thanks!
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Andy Mc Nabb
Robert Wilson Spanish Civil War
Laurie Lee's spanish civil war book is a good read.
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
I wonder who is manning these phone banks and email factories hounding MPs?
Is your premiss that this is the work of someone like Owen Jones and his Twitter followers rather than actual Conservative voters? Are you actually so naive that you think that Conservative voters do not care about this, and that polling such as in the Daily Mail is just fake news?
I would put anyone who contacted their MP about what Dom did back in April on a watch list.
Have they nothing better to do ? Definitely worth the watching.
That has put me in a conundrum because I agree with you that I wouldn't email my MP about it, although in fairness I haven't had a death in the family or missed meeting a new grandchild, etc, etc.
I also think someone who has emailed their MP and then looks at your and my posts on here and sees the amount of time we spend on here also might conclude we should also be put on a watch list instead.
I refer you to the fact that I predicted this outcome from Day 1. If it were up to me, the story would have died there, but it has received such fanatical media attention, not to mention 50 squillion consecutive headers on here, until this one, that I don't feel the slightest bit bad about rubbing it in.
Give it a rest will you. You’re so boring and add nothing to the discussion.
If being right from the moment the story broke is nothing, then I compare very favourably to those who contributed less than nothing
Once again, you’re adding nothing to the discussion, you’re just merely attempting to provoke a reaction. You’re a troll and nothing else.
Yes, of course people who dare not to agree with the great Gallowgate are trolls. Only your opinions are permitted, your will is absolute.
But do you sometimes look around you and wonder why the reality of the world doesn't match your immaculate thoughts, even though you're always right?
I suppose it must be the world that is wrong
And there you are, doing it again.
I disagree with @Philip_Thompson on a lot of things but at least he doesn’t post everything for the purpose of provoking a reaction. You’re not interested in any debate or discussion, you just want to wind everyone up.
I have no idea what you're interested in, and honestly I don't much care. Feel free not to read if you don't like it. You don't seem to be able to handle opposing points of view, so why you should choose to expose yourself to them is a mystery to me.
You claim to not like Twitter yet you perpetually whinge about it, so maybe sort yourself out first.
Maybe sort out your own hypocrisy, since you love those posters who mindlessly copy and paste hundreds of Tweets a day without comment in a rather bot-like fashion, but then attack posters who are actually capable of formulating arguments on their own?
I only attack you for being a troll. If you don’t like it, maybe don’t be a troll.
I would call you a troll, but I don't think your incoherent flailing really merits being called anything at all.
I don’t think anyone would actually call me a troll. My posts and opinions are rather measured and conservative if I do say so myself. I rarely post anything in absolutes.
By my reckoning there's probably something closer to a 20 seat majority while Dom is still in post. Hopefully it's lower or its pushed the government into a minorty position. That's the only pressure that will force Boris to make the change.
What government legislation are they going to vote against? And do they think 2019 Tory voters - 97% of whom still support the Tories even according to the worst polls - will forgive that kind of attack on their own Prime Minister? Most Tory voters' allegiance is still rock-steady, despite a week of endless media onslaught.
There’s no disputing that 97% of GE19 Tory voters would still vote for them according to the polls. However there’s also no disputing that according to the polls, a majority of GE19 Tory voters are unhappy with Dominic Cummings, something you constantly froth about only being a concern of Twitter leftys. That is clearly untrue.
Doesn’t stop you though in the name of provoking a reaction.
If they still vote Tory at close to 100% levels, it doesn't matter the slighest sliver of a damn that they are 'unhappy with Dominic Cummings'.
I don't know if you've noticed this but on Election Night they declare actual votes, not 'people who were unhappy with Dominic Cummings in May 2020'.
Oh, and please don't react if you don't want to. I can't take this level of boredom so early in the day.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
Revolver was released, can't think of anything else..
Carmarthen by-election not ring a bell?
Lady Megan Lloyd- George passed away?
The effect was more important than the cause.
“The contest was significant in that it resulted in the election of Gwynfor Evans, the first ever Plaid Cymru Member of Parliament. Plaid Cymru's victory in the Carmarthen constituency, a seminal moment for Welsh nationalism, was part of a wider process toward Welsh devolution which eventually led to the establishment of the Welsh Assembly in 1999.
Evans' surprise win is credited with laying the foundations for Winnie Ewing's victory for the Scottish National Party at the 1967 Hamilton by-election, an event of equal significance for Scottish nationalism.”
(wiki)
I was being flippant.
I remember my father and grandfather would buy plants at his nursery near Cross Hands. On the way in the Austin 1100 we would pass hand painted signs in green by 'The Free Wales Army'.
Gwynfor of course also had a famous son in law, the Welsh Balladeer with the stammer, Ffred Ffransis.
Conclusions I've reached so far (new facts may shift me on these) on frequently discussed topics: - The Sweden route doesn't look promising for them; it was implausible in the UK, anyway, with our different social aspects and demographic layout and connectivity - The death rate is certainly well over one in a thousand, and the 0.5%-1.0% IFR range continues to look most likely - Asymptomatic proportions are likely to be 30%-50%, but up to 80% MAY be plausible - Infection gives antibodies, which should give protection for at least 6 months to a year and possibly longer - The proportion of the population infected and with antibodies varies between 5% and 20% in the UK dependent on where you are (and is nowhere near herd immunity levels) - Out of doors activity looks to be minimally risky and the easiest low hanging fruit; bar and restaurant gardens should probably be higher on the relaxation schedules - There's a whole suite of things that can probably be done with minimal impacts on R; we just need to work out which they are - While the death rates for younger demographics with no minor or major medical conditions seem to be very low when treated, the chances of having serious illness that needs hospitalisation is still significant and if the NHS was overwhelmed, these death rates would be far higher - A second wave remains a fear: the virus is still out there, its method of transmission is the same, if we act as we did before, the same thing happens - Some restrictions and some forms of social distancing are with us until either a working vaccine, a reliable treatment, or rapid, reliable, and ubiquitous test are with us - The pandemic has badly hurt our economy, as with others. The "pausing" method attempted by Sunak is the best way to preserve as much as possible to maximise the recovery (2/2)
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
As Philip Thompson stated below people will now no longer follow the advice and follow their personal judgement / desire
Frustrated by not knowing Norwegian. Presumably the head of the Norwegian Public Health Institute's point is that Norway could have avoided a Sweden style epidemic without a full lockdown, and not that the Sweden outcome is a good one.
Lockdown isn't anyone's end goal, although it's likely to be extended in the UK, thanks to government mismanagement.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Andy Mc Nabb
Robert Wilson Spanish Civil War
Laurie Lee's spanish civil war book is a good read.
Never quite recovered from Cider with Rosie at school. Prose as a viscous, suffocating gel that left you desperate for breath and, all too often, a full stop.
Edit, as I didn't write in my O level answer, funnily enough.
'Not going to comply with track and trace out of protest'?
Do these people realize that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites? The entire premise of the moral outrage against Cummings is that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them to be rank hypocrites.
If an authority figure committed a murder, would you be justified in saying 'Well, now I'm not going to comply with the laws against murder out of protest'? These ridiculous people apparently think that would be morally justifiable.
As Philip Thompson stated below people will now no longer follow the advice and follow their personal judgement / desire
Johnson in the liaison committee interview kept grasping at Dido's name like a drowning man to a raft. At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
Government works on a social contract. Most people don't obey the law *solely* because they might get found out and punished, but because they think it's part of a deal between themselves, their fellow citizens and the government.
The above is 100 times more true than it is anyway when the government deliberately refrains from legislating in favour of urging, persuading and appealing to peoples' sense of duty.
Imagine you are on a train talking to a very plausible gent who has just about persuaded you to give him your wallet on a temporary basis to prove that you trust him, when you are interrupted by a ticket inspector. The plausible gent tells the inspector that he got on at Birmingham New Street, when you know for a fact he has been on the train since Euston. Do you rethink your position?
People aren't saying: you have caused damage x therefore I will cause damage y. They are saying I have no first-hand evidence that Covid 19 even exists. I believe in its existence and the steps needed to combat it, on your say so. Your conduct now reveals both that you are a liar and that you estimate the danger of conduct x and y as being vastly lower than your public claims on the subject. I will therefore do y, not despite knowing how harmful it will be, but because I no longer believe the claim that it represents any kind of danger at all, any more than you do.
Starmer's big idea is a Bill of Attainder against Cummings? 'Cos that's never been used as a tool of autocrats and won't look like a partisan witch-hunt at all!
Let him go ahead. As long as he realizes that he'll be declaring total war on a government with a landslide majority and zero fucks to give.
Hope it's worth it, Keir!
SKS isn't that stupid.
Agree - he's played this brilliantly from the start "never interrupt your enemy while he is making mistakes" - from a political point of view its better for Labour if Cummings stays - an eternal reminder of "one law for them, another for us". A more difficult calculus for SKS is what's in the national interest.....he may conclude "A Labour government from 2024" and find that coincides with what's best for Labour...
The smart move is to completely sideline the government and PM and make an appeal directly to the people about civic duty. Acknowledge that it's even more difficult to live by these rules because of the government's position on Cummings but make clear that they are still the right rules.
"Today I'm asking the people of the UK to continue observing the social distancing rules and to comply with contact tracers if they are asked to isolate. I know this is something that is even more difficult to do now than it was last week because of actions taken by the PM and Mr Cummings, but it is still the right thing to do. I believe that all of the people in the UK have an extraordinary capacity to do the right thing when asked. This doesn't mean we are letting the government or Mr Cummings off the hook and neither should you, but these actions by him should not be allowed to interfere with our ability to reopen the economy and keep our people and NHS safe from this virus."
That kind of statement makes Starmer the de facto PM and people will see him as PM material.
"Starmer the de facto PM"
Good job he leads a party in Parliament with a majority to pass legislation then. Oh...wait....
When the voters start listening to him instead of the PM it's just a matter of time until the PM falls.
With two or three smart plays Starmer could absolutely destroy Boris.
How? Tell me. "Destroy" a PM with a 80 seat majority with 4 years to go until a GE.
Write off BJ and DC at your peril. It's been done so many times. Each time they've proven their enemies as fools.
It goes back to moral authority, as of now Boris hasn't got it. Neither has Starmer but with a few smart plays he could show he has it in the eyes of the voters. It's the classic Blair play vs Major or Dave vs Gordon.
And my point is that with such a long way to go to an election and there are so many unknown unknowns that it is risible to predict what may happen in the eyes of voters.
I'm sure Blair lost "moral authority" in 2003 with millions on the streets and an illegal war. If this site was around then we would be having the same conversations. Didn't stop him winning the 2005 election with a comfortable majority did it?
But hey. Let blind hatred of Dominic Cummings blind you to any sensible analysis of how political fortunes ebb and flow.
I absolutely agree that trying to guess what the political landscape will be in in 4 years time is fraught with problems.
However this is a political betting website and all about trying to spot the value long-term bets .
In a betting sense it's all about predicting what the impact of the Cummings affair will be. To my betting mind this whole affair has dented Johnson's image and increases the odds that he won't be the PM by the next GE. If Johnson does bow out in a year what impact has this episode and the government's generally poor pandemic performance had on who is likely to be his successor? Starmer is doing pretty well and most would agree that his chances of winning the next GE have increased, but to what extent?
Out of the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark - with similar climates, culture, societies, economies, population densities, and physical connectivity, and healthcare quality - all the factors that feed into infectivity and death tolls):
Per capita death rates:
Economic impact forecast:
And Sweden were hoping to protect their care homes and elderly - which has completely failed. They were hoping to get sufficient herd immunity to protect against a second wave - and they're nowhere near.
And their death rate has plateaued around 60-70 per day (which would be around 400-500 per day scaled up to the UK).
If Norway did lock down too hard, then that means they've now got far more scope going forwards, and they erred on the side of saving a hell of a lot more lives and preserving their economies better, at the cost of a couple of difficult months. Best side on which to err, really.
Point of order, Denmarks population density is completely different to Norway and Sweden.
Norway 15 P/km2 Sweden 25 P/Km2 Denmark 137 P/Km2
Denmark is more densely populated than France or Spain for example.
Sweden doing so much worse than Denmark is a big problem for those who think lockdown wasnt important.
Very good point; my apologies. Denmark would have every excuse for being a lot worse hit than Sweden, all else being equal.
Need to be careful with raw population density figures. Urban density probably matters more. Vast swathes of nothingness won't prevent spread, an absence of mass public transport etc might.
Fair enough: we can see the distribution of density on the following map.
Denmark definitely looks more vulnerable than Sweden
Definitely. And Britain more than almost any other European nation too.
What works for Sweden there's no reason whatsoever to suggest would work for us.
Johnson in the liaison committee interview kept grasping at Dido's name like a drowning man to a raft. At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
It is after all quite a short and easy to remember name, although it could be said, open to hazardous mispronounciation if one is not too careful.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
100% agreed. All these people are doing in exposing their hypocrisy is a manner that is both comical and utterly self-defeating.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
Johnson in the liaison committee interview kept grasping at Dido's name like a drowning man to a raft. At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
But if you read to the end of the Aeneid book IV you find that the attachment to Dido does not end happily. Boris, if he was paying attention in Latin lectures, will be aware of this.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
Was Cummings the reason the rocket launch was delayed last night?
No delay - Scott was here nice and early to post his tweets.
Funny you should say that because I have always found it odd that both you and Philip Thompson tell us you have young children yet appear to spend all day, every day posting on here.
Its half term fella.
So your young children are at home and you spend all day making comments on a political blog. Just don't think that's what I would be doing but each to his own.
They are down the park with their mates.
Apologies then, I was under the impression they were much younger, I must be mixing you up with someone else.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
Contact is very good if as you say odd.
Edit: odd because it just describes life in NI for a squaddie.
Easily have killed people? There is 1-2% chance of dying from Covid and during his journey he did not get within 2 metres of anyone apart from his wife and son. When he got to his destination his family isolated for the required time. He was daft to do it but to say that he could have easily killed people is stretching it somewhat.
Yes: you infect a bunch people, they go on to infect their households (because transmission within households is very likely). Some of those go on to infect other people. 1% of those infected die. If you cut off the original source, then those people get to survive.
That’s how epidemics work. Just because R might be < 1 on average, if you go out & infect a bunch of people right now (say, by having to go to the toilet in a service station on your way north to Durham & shedding viral particles everywhere inside) then those people go home & infect their families & now we have a local outbreak & people die.
And yes, as I said: he got lucky - he didn’t have to stop en route & so didn’t actually infect anyone. That doesn’t make what he did right.
His wife ended up in hospital with their son: did they tell them they might have Covid-19? How many NHS workers did she infect? We’ll never know.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Andy Mc Nabb
Robert Wilson Spanish Civil War
Laurie Lee's spanish civil war book is a good read.
Never quite recovered from Cider with Rosie at school. Prose as a viscous, suffocating gel that left you desperate for breath and, all too often, a full stop.
Edit, as I didn't write in my O level answer, funnily enough.
Out of the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark - with similar climates, culture, societies, economies, population densities, and physical connectivity, and healthcare quality - all the factors that feed into infectivity and death tolls):
Per capita death rates:
Economic impact forecast:
And Sweden were hoping to protect their care homes and elderly - which has completely failed. They were hoping to get sufficient herd immunity to protect against a second wave - and they're nowhere near.
And their death rate has plateaued around 60-70 per day (which would be around 400-500 per day scaled up to the UK).
If Norway did lock down too hard, then that means they've now got far more scope going forwards, and they erred on the side of saving a hell of a lot more lives and preserving their economies better, at the cost of a couple of difficult months. Best side on which to err, really.
Point of order, Denmarks population density is completely different to Norway and Sweden.
Norway 15 P/km2 Sweden 25 P/Km2 Denmark 137 P/Km2
Denmark is more densely populated than France or Spain for example.
Sweden doing so much worse than Denmark is a big problem for those who think lockdown wasnt important.
Very good point; my apologies. Denmark would have every excuse for being a lot worse hit than Sweden, all else being equal.
Need to be careful with raw population density figures. Urban density probably matters more. Vast swathes of nothingness won't prevent spread, an absence of mass public transport etc might.
Fair enough: we can see the distribution of density on the following map.
Denmark definitely looks more vulnerable than Sweden
The German achievement looks all the more impressive, too. They really are a lot better at a lot of things than we are. I think it would be worth figuring out why that is. They are an obvious role model to emulate, it's odd we spend so much time looking to the US.
Agreed there, certainly.
And it's plausible that Norway could indeed cope without a full lockdown but with restrictions maybe a bit tougher than the ones Sweden used at the current time. Their distribution is almost ideal to cope with something like this, and their social/cultural setup likewise.
You can see why Sweden thought it might be practical initially, but I think they should have shifted tack when it wasn't working so well. Very good job Denmark didn't try it.
And we should be looking very carefully at everything Germany has done and is doing through this as the most useful comparable country that is doing comparatively well.
I'm not against learning from Germany, but it's worth noting that their death rate from Covid-19 is about twenty times higher than South Korea's.
Our death rate is about ten times worse than Germany's, so there's perhaps half as much to learn from Germany as from South Korea.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
100% agreed. All these people are doing in exposing their hypocrisy is a manner that is both comical and utterly self-defeating.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
Given that the vast majority of those who got a positive test yesterday will be in care homes or around the NHS - the benefit of the app is pretty limited at this stage.
On the contrary. It is when the number in the community is relatively small and manageable that trace and test has a chance.
I meant the app element of trace and test has limited value when most of the testees are in a hospital bed, or work in the NHS.
It has been overhyped from the start. Every announcement seems to be for some sort of "game changing" or "world beating" development — field hosptials, vaccine targets, antibody tests, ventilator manufacturing, PPE deliveries, widening testing, the "app", Remdesivir — when many of them are of marginal value, and some will simply prove worthless.
Track and trace should have been done from the start with paper and pencil. Have you, the Covid-19 sufferer, spent any time in the last fortnight in a supermarket, pub or stadium? Where do you work? Does anyone you live with look a bit green about the gills? Then if it turns out a lot of shoppers at MadeUp supermarket but no-one at Twickenham got it, that is useful information that can be acted upon.
But we can't do that because it would not trace 100 per cent of contacts so instead we will spend two days writing an app, except it is not two days, it takes months if it ever happens at all.
Exactly this.
Half of contacts is better than nothing as it will take a good bite out of R for this infection focus.
And a pen and paper job would automatically get the main contacts - the school class, the No. 45 bus at 1734 on Monday, the Green Man ... and not waste time with twats with mobile phones passing 5 seconds in your company.
So how do you identify who was on the No 45 bus?
Bus passes. Especially for commuter buses, hardly anyonme uses cash on them (even before covid). But I speak as someone whose municipal buses were never privatised and where only a few commercial companies operate.
Lots of phones travelling together down the 45 bus route? :-)
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Your objection would presumably eliminate Coles’ Drink to Yesterday as well.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
I may have said this before, but I read somewhere that the Biggles novels were originally aimed at adults and then rebranded, with adjustments to the existing corpus, so that there is an early story about Biggles and the lads trying to track down someone who is said to have a whole bottle of pre-war whisky. This was transformed into a quest for a bottle of pre-war lemonade.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
100% agreed. All these people are doing in exposing their hypocrisy is a manner that is both comical and utterly self-defeating.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
As you love to say to others, try engaging with the substance of the argument?
Johnson in the liaison committee interview kept grasping at Dido's name like a drowning man to a raft. At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
But if you read to the end of the Aeneid book IV you find that the attachment to Dido does not end happily. Boris, if he was paying attention in Latin lectures, will be aware of this.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
100% agreed. All these people are doing in exposing their hypocrisy is a manner that is both comical and utterly self-defeating.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
What we have seen around here over the last week to two weeks is ever larger groups of teenagers who have gathered together in the woods and parks (they would obviously be safer and more socially distanced if they were at school), our neighbours had a lot of extended family in for Eid, the next house down had an extended family party/BBQ for their kids 21st, our other neighbours are having to provide a good deal of social care for a mother who has dementia and totally inadequate support, two families in the cul-de-sac have had adult children return for periods as they reached their limits living in city flats and traffic is becoming increasingly normal.
In short, apart from the shortage of places to go, lockdown is effectively over by common consent. I think that this is a consequence of very low incidences of the virus locally. If people were still dying frequently things would be different but outside of care homes this is no longer really happening.
Reimposing lockdown for a second wave is going to be next to impossible, in my view.
I think what a lot of Tories on here don't see is that by winning the battle the party is currently losing the war.
I think the answer is that Boris and Dom don't care about 2024 because neither of them plan to be there so fuck the party and let the next guy deal with this fall out. All the while they're opening the door for Labour and Starmer where it was closed before.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Your objection would presumably eliminate Coles’ Drink to Yesterday as well.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
I may have said this before, but I read somewhere that the Biggles novels were originally aimed at adults and then rebranded, with adjustments to the existing corpus, so that there is an early story about Biggles and the lads trying to track down someone who is said to have a whole bottle of pre-war whisky. This was transformed into a quest for a bottle of pre-war lemonade.
Correct, the story in question is ‘The Balloonatics.’
Out of the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark - with similar climates, culture, societies, economies, population densities, and physical connectivity, and healthcare quality - all the factors that feed into infectivity and death tolls):
Per capita death rates:
Economic impact forecast:
And Sweden were hoping to protect their care homes and elderly - which has completely failed. They were hoping to get sufficient herd immunity to protect against a second wave - and they're nowhere near.
And their death rate has plateaued around 60-70 per day (which would be around 400-500 per day scaled up to the UK).
If Norway did lock down too hard, then that means they've now got far more scope going forwards, and they erred on the side of saving a hell of a lot more lives and preserving their economies better, at the cost of a couple of difficult months. Best side on which to err, really.
Point of order, Denmarks population density is completely different to Norway and Sweden.
Norway 15 P/km2 Sweden 25 P/Km2 Denmark 137 P/Km2
Denmark is more densely populated than France or Spain for example.
Sweden doing so much worse than Denmark is a big problem for those who think lockdown wasnt important.
Very good point; my apologies. Denmark would have every excuse for being a lot worse hit than Sweden, all else being equal.
Need to be careful with raw population density figures. Urban density probably matters more. Vast swathes of nothingness won't prevent spread, an absence of mass public transport etc might.
Fair enough: we can see the distribution of density on the following map.
Denmark definitely looks more vulnerable than Sweden
Definitely. And Britain more than almost any other European nation too.
What works for Sweden there's no reason whatsoever to suggest would work for us.
That map does not show urban density.
Would you prefer this one? (I do like this representation, to be fair):
Yes it is a good map, but I wonder how sensitive it is to the block size. This is essentially a 2-dimentional histogram, which are known to be quite sensitive to the brock size. One surprising thing for me is that nowhere in Germany has high towers in contrast to most of England, but looking carefully you can see a whole area in the Netherlands, Belgium and the Ruhrgebiet (North-Western German border), where most of the blocks are moderate, but not very spikey. England is very spikey, meaning that the rural areas are very close to the dense cities and towns.
Again on war books, if anyone is finding the empty hours of lockdown weighing heavily upon them, Henry Williamson's autobiographical series of novels 'A Chronicle of Ancient Sunlight' will occupy a fair few of them. Williamson joined up in 1914 and I think six of the books cover WWI; very interesting sociologically, also because of Williamson's later political persuasion. The neurotic hero Phillip Maddison very much represents HW's personality I think.
What we have seen around here over the last week to two weeks is ever larger groups of teenagers who have gathered together in the woods and parks (they would obviously be safer and more socially distanced if they were at school), our neighbours had a lot of extended family in for Eid, the next house down had an extended family party/BBQ for their kids 21st, our other neighbours are having to provide a good deal of social care for a mother who has dementia and totally inadequate support, two families in the cul-de-sac have had adult children return for periods as they reached their limits living in city flats and traffic is becoming increasingly normal.
In short, apart from the shortage of places to go, lockdown is effectively over by common consent. I think that this is a consequence of very low incidences of the virus locally. If people were still dying frequently things would be different but outside of care homes this is no longer really happening.
Reimposing lockdown for a second wave is going to be next to impossible, in my view.
I think the Govt, in its messages today, has missed the point re people obeying the rules. It is pleading with people to do the right thing regardless of the Cummings issue. Those that believe it is the right thing will almost certainly do so even if they are angry about Cummings.
However there are two other groups of people who largely followed the rules who may now not.
There are those who don't give a toss, but didn't want to get into trouble.
There are those who think the lockdown is nonsense, or has gone too far or who want the economy to get going again, but again didn't want to get into trouble.
These people aren't angry with Cummings, but may well break the rules in greater numbers. Boris won't lose these people's vote, and the former may well be non-voters anyway.
Those that are angry, will probably not break the rules, but Boris will probably lose their vote. But as people say the next election is a long way off.
What I hate in this is hypocrisy. I wonder how many people who are on Furlough are actually working? I am coming across it on an hourly basis. "Yeah im on Furlough but I am working a bit" I wonder how many of those people are saying Cummings should get the sack?
You raise an interesting point. Money Box was reporting widespread abuse by employers this week (the implication was small employers). Even employees finding out they were furloughed only after receiving their payslip. It is particularly hard for employees of small companies to whistleblow. Even though they are protected in law, the practicalities are difficult.
There are huge abuses going on. I know some self employed who are claiming their £2500 but are carrying on working, they just will not invoice for the work they are doing until August. They know there is no chance of any Government audits as the Government simply do not have enough staff. Yet these peeple would consider what Cummings did is far worse than what they are doing.
Bluntly, Cummings actions were far worse. Fiddling the figures for a bit of extra income is merely a venial in & I wouldn’t be surprised if the government had run the numbers & decided that the extra cash injection into the economy was probably a good thing on net so best to turn a blind eye.
What Cummings did was to break isolation, putting many other members of the public at risk: He could easily have killed people. The fact that by the grace of fortune he was not forced to stop en-route & managed to isolate in the family house in Durham just means that he (and those whom he might have infected) got lucky. They still ended up with their son in hospital, where it’s entirely possible that his wife infected a bunch of people.
For me personally there’s no question that Cummings’ actions were worse than fiddling a few £1000. He put lives at risk.
(I still predict that he will stay in post & this too shall pass, but the damage will be done.)
So who are these lives Cummings put at risk? I think the only thing you have to argue is the trip back into work before Durham.
He went to Durham with his household in his bubble. He didn't see his parents at a risky distance. He went on a socially distanced trip to BC (and we know that outside is far lower risk than inside). He may have bought some fuel with a credit card from a fuel pump, or a socially distanced assistant. He visited hospital under medical instruction. He didn't put himself in with any government drivers.
None of that is particularly risky.
You can argue that potential load on the NHS should he have a crash is a risk - as one could as a reason to close down solo sports.
The political optics disaster, the likely breach of guidelines, and the media frenzy we know about. Risk assessment is I think less clear.
There are a number of charges that have some basis, without needing to make up more that don't.
Starmer's big idea is a Bill of Attainder against Cummings? 'Cos that's never been used as a tool of autocrats and won't look like a partisan witch-hunt at all!
Let him go ahead. As long as he realizes that he'll be declaring total war on a government with a landslide majority and zero fucks to give.
Hope it's worth it, Keir!
Again, it is not a game, and certainly not a primary school playground game. One really doesn't expect to find adults celebrating the fact that the government formed by their party has "zero fucks to give."
Ishmael - may I call you Ishmael? - of course politics is a game, and it often relies on the same dynamics as any playground contest. It's about numbers, morale, noise, loyalty, tactics, strategy, face, intimidation, and strength. It's simply played for much higher stakes.
And yes, I would like the Tories to be far more aggressive and ruthless. The US Republicans with the Tories' current advantages wouldn't leave office for the next 20 years.
Politics is about vision, integrity, a desire to improve things for your fellow citizens and winning arguments. It’s never been a game it’s to important for that. It’s not about the color of your team it’s about their values and performance, shame these values are disappearing.
I think you might want to replace politics "is" with politics "should be".
Trump has none of those attributes, he couldn't care less about integrity, honesty, vision or anything else.
Sadly some like BluestBlue want the Conservative Party to follow suit because they are only interested in winning and, as we saw with Brexit, they don't much care how it's achieved.
Having won though, you do eventually get judged on what you deliver and from what I can see Trump, Bolsarno and Johnson seem to be the leaders taking the biggest hit during this crisis.
If, and it's a big if, those three have been turfed out of office by this time next year there might be some hope that what you deliver still counts for something however loud you shout "fake news" etc.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Andy Mc Nabb
Robert Wilson Spanish Civil War
Laurie Lee's spanish civil war book is a good read.
Never quite recovered from Cider with Rosie at school. Prose as a viscous, suffocating gel that left you desperate for breath and, all too often, a full stop.
Edit, as I didn't write in my O level answer, funnily enough.
Did you not do O grades?
Can't honestly remember, it was O something. 1976. During my kids education we have had O grades, Int 2s and National 5s at least, probably more. Edit, you're right, it was O grades.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
It was written 50 years after the plague.
On the subject of war novels, the Olivia Manning trilogies, The Balkan Trilogy and The Levant Trilogy are excellent.
I think what a lot of Tories on here don't see is that by winning the battle the party is currently losing the war.
I think the answer is that Boris and Dom don't care about 2024 because neither of them plan to be there so fuck the party and let the next guy deal with this fall out. All the while they're opening the door for Labour and Starmer where it was closed before.
A very perceptive post. This has always been my concern regarding "Boris". His priorities are, and always were Boris, Boris, and Boris. The Conservative Party and the country are way down the list.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
Because the stupid Oedipus Complexers in the government said that it was legal.
That is the catch. If they’d said it was wrong, and illegal, and sacked him, no damage done.
By saying that his actions were lawful and appropriate - which you would have to be actually as dense as Mr Baldrick to believe - they are said pretty much everything else is legal as well. And why put up with the inconvenience and financial hardship if it’s (a) it’s not legally required and (b) others ignore it when it suits them?
That is the law of unintended consequences of shielding one very stupid man they feel they cannot do without.
Of course, his apologists don’t get this because they’re either as thick as he is or so blinkered by tribal loyalty they just don’t care.
Up until the middle of January, it does exactly what you'd expect: When Trump goes up Biden goes down, and when Trump goes down Biden goes up.
Then suddenly Biden and Trump start moving up and down in perfect harmony, with 6 points in between. The gap never changes, only the don't-know/other - which is moving a *lot*. At one point Trump+Biden make 95% between them, a month later they're down to 89%.
What we have seen around here over the last week to two weeks is ever larger groups of teenagers who have gathered together in the woods and parks (they would obviously be safer and more socially distanced if they were at school), our neighbours had a lot of extended family in for Eid, the next house down had an extended family party/BBQ for their kids 21st, our other neighbours are having to provide a good deal of social care for a mother who has dementia and totally inadequate support, two families in the cul-de-sac have had adult children return for periods as they reached their limits living in city flats and traffic is becoming increasingly normal.
In short, apart from the shortage of places to go, lockdown is effectively over by common consent. I think that this is a consequence of very low incidences of the virus locally. If people were still dying frequently things would be different but outside of care homes this is no longer really happening.
Reimposing lockdown for a second wave is going to be next to impossible, in my view.
Yes, it's pretty much over in rural Devon. The common perception is, it's about as big a threat as malaria, and we are really, really bored of lockdown, so there.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
It was written 50 years after the plague.
On the subject of war novels, the Olivia Manning trilogies, The Balkan Trilogy and The Levant Trilogy are excellent.
You are confusing him with Defoe, I think. On your theory it would need transcribing from a ouija board.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Your objection would presumably eliminate Coles’ Drink to Yesterday as well.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
I may have said this before, but I read somewhere that the Biggles novels were originally aimed at adults and then rebranded, with adjustments to the existing corpus, so that there is an early story about Biggles and the lads trying to track down someone who is said to have a whole bottle of pre-war whisky. This was transformed into a quest for a bottle of pre-war lemonade.
WE Johns, if I recall correctly was shot down. He recounted it in a story I read when about 10 called "My Most Thrilling Flight" or something like that. I must have read dozens of Biggles books between roughly age 8 and 11. While it is derided as poor literature it gave me a love of reading, for which I am very grateful.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
It was written 50 years after the plague.
Huh? 1665 is 50 years after 1664-66?
Maybe Defoe Journal of the PLague Year was meant? But that's another one to add to the list, anyway.
Mann Magic Mountains about a TB sanatorium. But is TB a too slow-mo for a pandemic to qualify?
South Korea re-imposes some coronavirus restrictions after spike in new cases.
Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes.
According to many on this forum, South-Korea is the model example to follow.
I wonder how quickly Germany will follow with some things closing again. We're coming up to the 4th Bank holiday weekend in 5 weeks. Last Thursday's holiday is particularly famous for groups of men meeting up and getting pissed, which followed just one week after pubs reopening. Most pubs are doing the best at not allowing groups (just two households at one table and distance between occupied tables) but it's hard to stop drunken freinds friends from hugging as they meet for the first time in months.
I think what a lot of Tories on here don't see is that by winning the battle the party is currently losing the war.
I think the answer is that Boris and Dom don't care about 2024 because neither of them plan to be there so fuck the party and let the next guy deal with this fall out. All the while they're opening the door for Labour and Starmer where it was closed before.
That is exactly and precisely right. what particularly pisses me off is that they puirport to be celebrating in my name.
I think the Govt, in its messages today, has missed the point re people obeying the rules. It is pleading with people to do the right thing regardless of the Cummings issue. Those that believe it is the right thing will almost certainly do so even if they are angry about Cummings.
However there are two other groups of people who largely followed the rules who may now not.
There are those who don't give a toss, but didn't want to get into trouble.
There are those who think the lockdown is nonsense, or has gone too far or who want the economy to get going again, but again didn't want to get into trouble.
These people aren't angry with Cummings, but may well break the rules in greater numbers. Boris won't lose these people's vote, and the former may well be non-voters anyway.
Those that are angry, will probably not break the rules, but Boris will probably lose their vote. But as people say the next election is a long way off.
What I hate in this is hypocrisy. I wonder how many people who are on Furlough are actually working? I am coming across it on an hourly basis. "Yeah im on Furlough but I am working a bit" I wonder how many of those people are saying Cummings should get the sack?
You raise an interesting point. Money Box was reporting widespread abuse by employers this week (the implication was small employers). Even employees finding out they were furloughed only after receiving their payslip. It is particularly hard for employees of small companies to whistleblow. Even though they are protected in law, the practicalities are difficult.
There are huge abuses going on. I know some self employed who are claiming their £2500 but are carrying on working, they just will not invoice for the work they are doing until August. They know there is no chance of any Government audits as the Government simply do not have enough staff. Yet these peeple would consider what Cummings did is far worse than what they are doing.
You do realise they are specifically allowed to carry on working under the scheme ? They need only to have 'been impacted' by the pandemic lockdown.
Interesting to see what those who say he should have left if he broke the law will respond. Well it would be, if we didnt know they will find a plausible obfuscation.
Up until the middle of January, it does exactly what you'd expect: When Trump goes up Biden goes down, and when Trump goes down Biden goes up.
Then suddenly Biden and Trump start moving up and down in perfect harmony, with 6 points in between. The gap never changes, only the don't-know/other - which is moving a *lot*. At one point Trump+Biden make 95% between them, a month later they're down to 89%.
What's going on?
Is it the makeup of pollsters reflected in the graph?
various questions will have various levels of DKs/refuseds.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
I hope everyone will do the right thing and self-isolate when asked to do so, however it's not as stupid as you make out.
It's an example of a prisoner's dilemma. If we all follow the self-isolation rules then we all benefit. This is what we want to happen.
If one person breaks those rules then they benefit twice - from not having to follow the rules themselves and from other people doing so. This is what Cummings did.
If lots of people don't follow the rules, but you do, then you suffer twice - by following the rules and due to the virus still spreading because others don't do so. This is now the scenario (some/many/most?) people are expecting and wanting to avoid.
So the risk is that we end up with many/most? people not following the self-isolation rules and a second wave, because of Cummings freeloading on others self-denial.
Up until the middle of January, it does exactly what you'd expect: When Trump goes up Biden goes down, and when Trump goes down Biden goes up.
Then suddenly Biden and Trump start moving up and down in perfect harmony, with 6 points in between. The gap never changes, only the don't-know/other - which is moving a *lot*. At one point Trump+Biden make 95% between them, a month later they're down to 89%.
What's going on?
Is it the makeup of pollsters reflected in the graph?
various questions will have various levels of DKs/refuseds.
It's a moving average so I think that stuff should mostly be coming out in the wash?
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
I think the Govt, in its messages today, has missed the point re people obeying the rules. It is pleading with people to do the right thing regardless of the Cummings issue. Those that believe it is the right thing will almost certainly do so even if they are angry about Cummings.
However there are two other groups of people who largely followed the rules who may now not.
There are those who don't give a toss, but didn't want to get into trouble.
There are those who think the lockdown is nonsense, or has gone too far or who want the economy to get going again, but again didn't want to get into trouble.
These people aren't angry with Cummings, but may well break the rules in greater numbers. Boris won't lose these people's vote, and the former may well be non-voters anyway.
Those that are angry, will probably not break the rules, but Boris will probably lose their vote. But as people say the next election is a long way off.
What I hate in this is hypocrisy. I wonder how many people who are on Furlough are actually working? I am coming across it on an hourly basis. "Yeah im on Furlough but I am working a bit" I wonder how many of those people are saying Cummings should get the sack?
You raise an interesting point. Money Box was reporting widespread abuse by employers this week (the implication was small employers). Even employees finding out they were furloughed only after receiving their payslip. It is particularly hard for employees of small companies to whistleblow. Even though they are protected in law, the practicalities are difficult.
There are huge abuses going on. I know some self employed who are claiming their £2500 but are carrying on working, they just will not invoice for the work they are doing until August. They know there is no chance of any Government audits as the Government simply do not have enough staff. Yet these peeple would consider what Cummings did is far worse than what they are doing.
You do realise they are specifically allowed to carry on working under the scheme ? They need only to have 'been impacted' by the pandemic lockdown.
These people have not been impacted, they are carrying on with exactly the same project they were working on prior to lockdown
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
Sunset Song - WWI The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie - WW2
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
100% agreed. All these people are doing in exposing their hypocrisy is a manner that is both comical and utterly self-defeating.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
As you love to say to others, try engaging with the substance of the argument?
You don't have an argument. You're just incensed that people haven't responded to a public outrage as you deludedly hoped that they would.
It turns out that game-playing has consequences. More people will probably die than would have done otherwise, the economic impact will probably be worse.
Still, Dominic Cummings is still in place so nothing else matters.
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? ... Any number of great films but literature?
The Boy's Own Commando Comics? They appear to be required reading for some of the anti-Europe brigade. We'll show the filthy bosche!!!
You shouldn't underestimate our achievements in 1918, 1945 and 1966!
What happened in 1966?
The greatest victory of them all against the Germans. ' World Cup Willie, famous for the cup...'
And on the earlier theme of Great War novels - you've got Barbusse Le Feu, Mottram Spanish Farm Trilogy, Junger Storm of Steel/In Stahlgewittern, Hasek The Good Soldier Svejk ...
Buchan’s Mr Standfast? Or do you think of that as a spy novel rather than a war novel?
Spy actually to my mind (though I prefer his John Macnab and historical stuff). There's also Childers' the Riddle of the Sands, which is a spy one so OT. And we were discussing Biggles novels some months back too - wasn't W. E. Johns a Great War veteran? There are lots of great memoirs of intrepid birdmen - or at least the ones who survived to write them - including 'Memoirs of an old balloonatic' being my latest find - but novels? Derek Robinson's revisionist hatchet jobs on Biggles are disqualified as retrospective according to the criterion enunciated earlier by one of us.
Robinson is brilliant, though.
Did we mention a Farewell to Arms; Parade's End ?
I said this
"Have you read Parade's End? Very highly thought of, but I have never come across a novel where each and every character is so utterly and irredeemably awful, not - I think - intentionally in every case. I mean there's Vanity Fair but at least one can fancy Becky Sharp."
Feel free to persuade me to carry on where I left off (about p 60 of vol 1).
Far from being mid-table, it looks like the UK has been worst in Europe. I really hope we aren't lifting lockdown too soon.
The Italians are much slower at releasing their excess death statistics, so I think they will still have a higher death rate than us when all the figures are in.
By this stage we should be able to lockdown smarter - loosen some things, tighten others - so that we can combine greater freedom with lower R.
No I don't think so - Italy has returned to normal mortality now.
"The FT has made these comparisons for the first time because the level of excess deaths in other hard-hit European countries, such as Italy and Spain, has returned close to normal levels. This means death rates in those countries are unlikely to overtake the UK unless they suffer a second wave of infections."
By my reckoning there's probably something closer to a 20 seat majority while Dom is still in post. Hopefully it's lower or its pushed the government into a minorty position. That's the only pressure that will force Boris to make the change.
What government legislation are they going to vote against? And do they think 2019 Tory voters - 97% of whom still support the Tories even according to the worst polls - will forgive that kind of attack on their own Prime Minister? Most Tory voters' allegiance is still rock-steady, despite a week of endless media onslaught.
There’s no disputing that 97% of GE19 Tory voters would still vote for them according to the polls. However there’s also no disputing that according to the polls, a majority of GE19 Tory voters are unhappy with Dominic Cummings, something you constantly froth about only being a concern of Twitter leftys. That is clearly untrue.
Doesn’t stop you though in the name of provoking a reaction.
If they still vote Tory at close to 100% levels, it doesn't matter the slighest sliver of a damn that they are 'unhappy with Dominic Cummings'.
I don't know if you've noticed this but on Election Night they declare actual votes, not 'people who were unhappy with Dominic Cummings in May 2020'.
Oh, and please don't react if you don't want to. I can't take this level of boredom so early in the day.
You clearly lack enough intelligence to appreciate that if Tory voters are unhappy, they are more likely to change their voting intention.
Thus as a result of all this, these voters are MORE LIKELY to vote Labour in future elections.
I’m not saying they WILL, but they are MORE LIKELY.
"Why we remember wars but forget plagues Pandemics aren't represented in film or literature because they're too boring, too horrific and too depressing By Sean Thomas"
Terrific piece by Sean. I pretty-much agree with him. A month or so back my Agent said he was looking forward to first-hand writing on this virus and I thought at the time, 'oh no.' I've just forwarded him Sean's essay.
I don't think Coronavirus lit will be filling up people's Christmas stockings this year.
Sean did miss the film Contagion, which is more like a documentary and well worth watching, as well as a host of other virus films:
Is this Sean chap right though? First, the relative shortage of plague literature might be because actually it is a boring subject -- person X gets ill and either dies or recovers -- rinse and repeat thousands of times. The only heroism possible is on the medical front, and until recently the quacks with their leeches and potions were not much use and even now, how filmic are academics arguing about spreadsheets? House had an episode with some sort of plague iirc (no spoilers!).
And is Sean even right about war? There is not much literature about war itself considering how much time we've spent on it. Take the Crimean, Boer and Great Wars: lots of poems and paintings but novels? Testament of Youth and A Farewell to Arms used the war as a backdrop. All Quiet on the Western Front, perhaps. Any others from anywhere near that time? More recently we've had books like Birdsong but are they based on the war or on war films? Spanish Civil War? Picasso's Guernica. Second World War? Any number of great films but literature?
More recently Vietnam and Iraq have given us quantity if not quality. Was the Korean War's Catch 22 the last great war novel?
Catch 22 is about WW2. What about War and Peace?
So not really Catch 22 then. War and Peace I've never read. Was Tolstoy old enough to have served?
Vietnam and Iraq have produced any number of novels and memoirs, so perhaps it has become easier to find a publisher. Then again, did anyone bother to write a Falklands novel? I seem to remember a fuss about the Bolshevik BBC refusing to broadcast a play about it. But at least until recently, I'd say the question is why poetry rather than novels?
There were several about life in the Army in Northern Ireland. The authors' names escape my memory - did Alan Judd do one?
Contact, Alan Clarke, no not that one.
Found the Judd one. A breed of heroes.
cheers,
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
On plague: Pepys Diary, Vol 6, 1665, is a genuine unfiltered contemporaneous account, and probably not written for publication, so profoundly honest. Beats all the fiction.
It was written 50 years after the plague.
On the subject of war novels, the Olivia Manning trilogies, The Balkan Trilogy and The Levant Trilogy are excellent.
You are confusing him with Defoe, I think. On your theory it would need transcribing from a ouija board.
Apologies. It was Defoe I was thinking of. I misread the post.
Starmer's big idea is a Bill of Attainder against Cummings? 'Cos that's never been used as a tool of autocrats and won't look like a partisan witch-hunt at all!
Let him go ahead. As long as he realizes that he'll be declaring total war on a government with a landslide majority and zero fucks to give.
Hope it's worth it, Keir!
SKS isn't that stupid.
Agree - he's played this brilliantly from the start "never interrupt your enemy while he is making mistakes" - from a political point of view its better for Labour if Cummings stays - an eternal reminder of "one law for them, another for us". A more difficult calculus for SKS is what's in the national interest.....he may conclude "A Labour government from 2024" and find that coincides with what's best for Labour...
The smart move is to completely sideline the government and PM and make an appeal directly to the people about civic duty. Acknowledge that it's even more difficult to live by these rules because of the government's position on Cummings but make clear that they are still the right rules.
"Today I'm asking the people of the UK to continue observing the social distancing rules and to comply with contact tracers if they are asked to isolate. I know this is something that is even more difficult to do now than it was last week because of actions taken by the PM and Mr Cummings, but it is still the right thing to do. I believe that all of the people in the UK have an extraordinary capacity to do the right thing when asked. This doesn't mean we are letting the government or Mr Cummings off the hook and neither should you, but these actions by him should not be allowed to interfere with our ability to reopen the economy and keep our people and NHS safe from this virus."
That kind of statement makes Starmer the de facto PM and people will see him as PM material.
Certainly a more Prime Ministerial statement than we have ever had from the incumbent.
Johnson in the liaison committee interview kept grasping at Dido's name like a drowning man to a raft. At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
But if you read to the end of the Aeneid book IV you find that the attachment to Dido does not end happily. Boris, if he was paying attention in Latin lectures, will be aware of this.
Yes - until I realised whom he was talking about, I thought he might be spouting nonsensical classical allusions again.
I’m assuming that if Dominic Cummings decides to jump off a cliff then these people will also not use their own common sense and jump off a cliff because he did?
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
I hope everyone will do the right thing and self-isolate when asked to do so, however it's not as stupid as you make out.
It's an example of a prisoner's dilemma. If we all follow the self-isolation rules then we all benefit. This is what we want to happen.
If one person breaks those rules then they benefit twice - from not having to follow the rules themselves and from other people doing so. This is what Cummings did.
If lots of people don't follow the rules, but you do, then you suffer twice - by following the rules and due to the virus still spreading because others don't do so. This is now the scenario (some/many/most?) people are expecting and wanting to avoid.
So the risk is that we end up with many/most? people not following the self-isolation rules and a second wave, because of Cummings freeloading on others self-denial.
Starmer's big idea is a Bill of Attainder against Cummings? 'Cos that's never been used as a tool of autocrats and won't look like a partisan witch-hunt at all!
Let him go ahead. As long as he realizes that he'll be declaring total war on a government with a landslide majority and zero fucks to give.
Hope it's worth it, Keir!
Even if he reads this blog I doubt winking at SKS is going to have any effect I’m afraid. He’s married too. Maybe set your sights a bit lower?
You need to realise your constant negative posting is not going to change a single mind on here.
How many minds do you think you have changed on here lol?! People come on here to rant, vent and perhaps to wind up those that have ridiculous views. Every now and again there is an informative post, that informs (maybe shifts opinion a little) but rarely genuinely changes the minds of those with entrenched positions.
I change my mind sometimes based on here. In particular, if somebody who is in my Bad Books says they like something that I happen to also like, I will if at all possible stop liking it. This has happened on numerous occasions.
Out of the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark - with similar climates, culture, societies, economies, population densities, and physical connectivity, and healthcare quality - all the factors that feed into infectivity and death tolls):
Per capita death rates:
Economic impact forecast:
And Sweden were hoping to protect their care homes and elderly - which has completely failed. They were hoping to get sufficient herd immunity to protect against a second wave - and they're nowhere near.
And their death rate has plateaued around 60-70 per day (which would be around 400-500 per day scaled up to the UK).
If Norway did lock down too hard, then that means they've now got far more scope going forwards, and they erred on the side of saving a hell of a lot more lives and preserving their economies better, at the cost of a couple of difficult months. Best side on which to err, really.
Point of order, Denmarks population density is completely different to Norway and Sweden.
Norway 15 P/km2 Sweden 25 P/Km2 Denmark 137 P/Km2
Denmark is more densely populated than France or Spain for example.
Sweden doing so much worse than Denmark is a big problem for those who think lockdown wasnt important.
Very good point; my apologies. Denmark would have every excuse for being a lot worse hit than Sweden, all else being equal.
Maybe so. The argument against Sweden was that the other Scandinavian countries who locked down had all done better, not just Denmark. So Norway saying lockdown made no difference is relevant
Oh and the other thing about the prisoner's dilemma we are in is that the government will be asking some people to make a significant sacrifice, by relying on SSP only for the period of their self-isolation some people will be facing rent arrears, etc.
People are more willing to make sacrifices as part of a collective endeavour, but not when they think others are not sharing in the burden of sacrifice.
And all because Cummings wouldn't admit to doing wrong and apologising.
There are plans for the Bailiwick to copy the example set by New Zealand, which uses physical distancing of two metres or one metre, depending on the circumstance.
Controlled environments in New Zealand such as school classrooms and workplaces use a one metre guideline, and other spaces such as on public transport use two metres.
The Director of Public Health, Dr Nicola Brink, explained the rationale.
‘Controlled circumstance is, for example, when you’re in a restaurant or a classroom and you know who everyone is in the classroom or restaurant and you can get contact details, so that if someone became ill we could contact trace very quickly, and for those circumstances we are recommending one metre. However, in more uncontrolled environments we are looking at two metres, for example that’s walking around a supermarket, where you could pass someone you don’t know and there’s not the same level of detail.
Comments
If what Dominic Cummings did is so very wrong and these people are angry he did wrong why are they also going to do what they say is wrong and put themselves or others at risk?
If they do something that’s putting other people at risk because they think that “hypocrisy” now gives them permission then surely it’s not actually that bad what he did and they should stop complaining.
Why don’t people just tut and call him a hypocritical dick and carry on observing lockdown in a properly righteous way.....
The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie - WW2
I also think someone who has emailed their MP and then looks at your and my posts on here and sees the amount of time we spend on here also might conclude we should also be put on a watch list instead.
Doesn’t stop you though in the name of provoking a reaction.
Abd thanks everyone for all the recommendations - duly noted for the next virtual bookshop trip.
You are right about Johns although his war service was later somewhat exaggerated for sales effect. He spent most of his time in the infantry ill and apart from six weeks, all of his time in the RAF as an instructor.
A play I know, but what about Sherriff’s Journey’s End?
The idea that the public are engaged enough bar referendums (which we wont be having for 30+ years) or General Elections are for the birds.
You have to be seriously motivated to email an MP - the Venn diagram with average voter is easy to draw..
Look at this graph of new cases;
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1265261443332608001/photo/1
So if you get in early enough, a Swedish Soft approach works. Otherwise, you have the tedious expensive faff of a harder lockdown to get the numbers down, at least to the point that cases are trackable.
Better to have been prompt than optimal.
“The contest was significant in that it resulted in the election of Gwynfor Evans, the first ever Plaid Cymru Member of Parliament. Plaid Cymru's victory in the Carmarthen constituency, a seminal moment for Welsh nationalism, was part of a wider process toward Welsh devolution which eventually led to the establishment of the Welsh Assembly in 1999.
Evans' surprise win is credited with laying the foundations for Winnie Ewing's victory for the Scottish National Party at the 1967 Hamilton by-election, an event of equal significance for Scottish nationalism.”
(wiki)
the film of Contact is really odd but engrossing none the less.
Not familiar with Journey's End ..
I don't know if you've noticed this but on Election Night they declare actual votes, not 'people who were unhappy with Dominic Cummings in May 2020'.
Oh, and please don't react if you don't want to. I can't take this level of boredom so early in the day.
I remember my father and grandfather would buy plants at his nursery near Cross Hands. On the way in the Austin 1100 we would pass hand painted signs in green by 'The Free Wales Army'.
Gwynfor of course also had a famous son in law, the Welsh Balladeer with the stammer, Ffred Ffransis.
The recent French antibody study, which demonstrated that even those mildly infected develop neutralising antibodies in increasing amounts as they recover, gives me more confidence that a vaccine will be effective:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/french-team-finds-mild-coronavirus-infection-does-lead-to-antibodies
Thang Nguyen, "Sympathiser".
Lockdown isn't anyone's end goal, although it's likely to be extended in the UK, thanks to government mismanagement.
Edit, as I didn't write in my O level answer, funnily enough.
At least she appears not to be a fellow bullshitter.
The above is 100 times more true than it is anyway when the government deliberately refrains from legislating in favour of urging, persuading and appealing to peoples' sense of duty.
Imagine you are on a train talking to a very plausible gent who has just about persuaded you to give him your wallet on a temporary basis to prove that you trust him, when you are interrupted by a ticket inspector. The plausible gent tells the inspector that he got on at Birmingham New Street, when you know for a fact he has been on the train since Euston. Do you rethink your position?
People aren't saying: you have caused damage x therefore I will cause damage y. They are saying I have no first-hand evidence that Covid 19 even exists. I believe in its existence and the steps needed to combat it, on your say so. Your conduct now reveals both that you are a liar and that you estimate the danger of conduct x and y as being vastly lower than your public claims on the subject. I will therefore do y, not despite knowing how harmful it will be, but because I no longer believe the claim that it represents any kind of danger at all, any more than you do.
However this is a political betting website and all about trying to spot the value long-term bets .
In a betting sense it's all about predicting what the impact of the Cummings affair will be. To my betting mind this whole affair has dented Johnson's image and increases the odds that he won't be the PM by the next GE.
If Johnson does bow out in a year what impact has this episode and the government's generally poor pandemic performance had on who is likely to be his successor? Starmer is doing pretty well and most would agree that his chances of winning the next GE have increased, but to what extent?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/south-korea-faces-return-to-coronavirus-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases
South Korea re-imposes some coronavirus restrictions after spike in new cases.
Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes.
What they _should_ say if they had a modicum of wit is 'Despite the behaviour of Dominic Cummings, my determination to follow the rules and support track & trace is unwavering, because I believe that protecting public health is the most important and moral thing to do and I'm not going to let him change that'.
But no, they just run headfirst into the brick wall of their own mindless outrage instead...
Edit: odd because it just describes life in NI for a squaddie.
That’s how epidemics work. Just because R might be < 1 on average, if you go out & infect a bunch of people right now (say, by having to go to the toilet in a service station on your way north to Durham & shedding viral particles everywhere inside) then those people go home & infect their families & now we have a local outbreak & people die.
And yes, as I said: he got lucky - he didn’t have to stop en route & so didn’t actually infect anyone. That doesn’t make what he did right.
His wife ended up in hospital with their son: did they tell them they might have Covid-19? How many NHS workers did she infect? We’ll never know.
Our death rate is about ten times worse than Germany's, so there's perhaps half as much to learn from Germany as from South Korea.
I wouldn't exactly call that great art though.
In short, apart from the shortage of places to go, lockdown is effectively over by common consent. I think that this is a consequence of very low incidences of the virus locally. If people were still dying frequently things would be different but outside of care homes this is no longer really happening.
Reimposing lockdown for a second wave is going to be next to impossible, in my view.
I think the answer is that Boris and Dom don't care about 2024 because neither of them plan to be there so fuck the party and let the next guy deal with this fall out. All the while they're opening the door for Labour and Starmer where it was closed before.
He went to Durham with his household in his bubble. He didn't see his parents at a risky distance. He went on a socially distanced trip to BC (and we know that outside is far lower risk than inside). He may have bought some fuel with a credit card from a fuel pump, or a socially distanced assistant. He visited hospital under medical instruction. He didn't put himself in with any government drivers.
None of that is particularly risky.
You can argue that potential load on the NHS should he have a crash is a risk - as one could as a reason to close down solo sports.
The political optics disaster, the likely breach of guidelines, and the media frenzy we know about. Risk assessment is I think less clear.
There are a number of charges that have some basis, without needing to make up more that don't.
Trump has none of those attributes, he couldn't care less about integrity, honesty, vision or anything else.
Sadly some like BluestBlue want the Conservative Party to follow suit because they are only interested in winning and, as we saw with Brexit, they don't much care how it's achieved.
Having won though, you do eventually get judged on what you deliver and from what I can see Trump, Bolsarno and Johnson seem to be the leaders taking the biggest hit during this crisis.
If, and it's a big if, those three have been turfed out of office by this time next year there might be some hope that what you deliver still counts for something however loud you shout "fake news" etc.
Edit, you're right, it was O grades.
On the subject of war novels, the Olivia Manning trilogies, The Balkan Trilogy and The Levant Trilogy are excellent.
That is the catch. If they’d said it was wrong, and illegal, and sacked him, no damage done.
By saying that his actions were lawful and appropriate - which you would have to be actually as dense as Mr Baldrick to believe - they are said pretty much everything else is legal as well. And why put up with the inconvenience and financial hardship if it’s (a) it’s not legally required and (b) others ignore it when it suits them?
That is the law of unintended consequences of shielding one very stupid man they feel they cannot do without.
Of course, his apologists don’t get this because they’re either as thick as he is or so blinkered by tribal loyalty they just don’t care.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#!
Up until the middle of January, it does exactly what you'd expect: When Trump goes up Biden goes down, and when Trump goes down Biden goes up.
Then suddenly Biden and Trump start moving up and down in perfect harmony, with 6 points in between. The gap never changes, only the don't-know/other - which is moving a *lot*. At one point Trump+Biden make 95% between them, a month later they're down to 89%.
What's going on?
Mann Magic Mountains about a TB sanatorium. But is TB a too slow-mo for a pandemic to qualify?
I wonder how quickly Germany will follow with some things closing again. We're coming up to the 4th Bank holiday weekend in 5 weeks. Last Thursday's holiday is particularly famous for groups of men meeting up and getting
pissed, which followed just one week after pubs reopening. Most pubs are doing the best at not allowing groups (just two households at one table and distance between occupied tables) but it's hard to stop drunken freinds friends from hugging as they meet for the first time in months.
https://twitter.com/evansma/status/1265969494184386561?s=20
https://twitter.com/evansma/status/1265970064983044096?s=20
https://twitter.com/evansma/status/1265970396458860544?s=20
https://twitter.com/gameoldgirl/status/1265967342971994114
They need only to have 'been impacted' by the pandemic lockdown.
various questions will have various levels of DKs/refuseds.
It's an example of a prisoner's dilemma. If we all follow the self-isolation rules then we all benefit. This is what we want to happen.
If one person breaks those rules then they benefit twice - from not having to follow the rules themselves and from other people doing so. This is what Cummings did.
If lots of people don't follow the rules, but you do, then you suffer twice - by following the rules and due to the virus still spreading because others don't do so. This is now the scenario (some/many/most?) people are expecting and wanting to avoid.
So the risk is that we end up with many/most? people not following the self-isolation rules and a second wave, because of Cummings freeloading on others self-denial.
Did we mention a Farewell to Arms; Parade's End ?
It turns out that game-playing has consequences. More people will probably die than would have done otherwise, the economic impact will probably be worse.
Still, Dominic Cummings is still in place so nothing else matters.
"Have you read Parade's End? Very highly thought of, but I have never come across a novel where each and every character is so utterly and irredeemably awful, not - I think - intentionally in every case. I mean there's Vanity Fair but at least one can fancy Becky Sharp."
Feel free to persuade me to carry on where I left off (about p 60 of vol 1).
"The FT has made these comparisons for the first time because the level of excess deaths in other hard-hit European countries, such as Italy and Spain, has returned close to normal levels. This means death rates in those countries are unlikely to overtake the UK unless they suffer a second wave of infections."
Thus as a result of all this, these voters are MORE LIKELY to vote Labour in future elections.
I’m not saying they WILL, but they are MORE LIKELY.
People are more willing to make sacrifices as part of a collective endeavour, but not when they think others are not sharing in the burden of sacrifice.
And all because Cummings wouldn't admit to doing wrong and apologising.
There are plans for the Bailiwick to copy the example set by New Zealand, which uses physical distancing of two metres or one metre, depending on the circumstance.
Controlled environments in New Zealand such as school classrooms and workplaces use a one metre guideline, and other spaces such as on public transport use two metres.
The Director of Public Health, Dr Nicola Brink, explained the rationale.
‘Controlled circumstance is, for example, when you’re in a restaurant or a classroom and you know who everyone is in the classroom or restaurant and you can get contact details, so that if someone became ill we could contact trace very quickly, and for those circumstances we are recommending one metre. However, in more uncontrolled environments we are looking at two metres, for example that’s walking around a supermarket, where you could pass someone you don’t know and there’s not the same level of detail.
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/05/28/plans-to-copy-new-zealand-social-distancing-measures/
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1265974284872298497