politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Those firms that don’t prompt for the Gre
Comments
-
0
-
@Slackbladder
"Poor old Ed...he's really not very photogenic is he? "
Bloody horrible.......on the other hand. you would have to be just a little sad to think that it makes any real difference to being a PM.
( I contend that the left has a natural ability to almost cherish stuff like that in a "defend the underdog" sort of way)0 -
Crikey.volcanopete said:Ukip Deputy Leader of Hampshire CC held over assault charge.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/
0 -
Er, but 15% of the population rent from a private landlord - 2011 census.TGOHF said:Reason why Ed's landlord bashing went down badly ?
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3m
11% of people have a second home?Incredible stat http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-3/2010-2012/sty-facts-about-household-wealth.html …
Since 15 > 11 [and some of the 11 will be second-homes that are not rented out] that statistic can not explain why Miliband's rent reforms did not lead to a stunning 10-point Labour lead in the polls.
0 -
If he's as good as they hype say's he is I should imagine the first thing Axel Rose said was something like;Slackbladder said:Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband · 4 mins
David Axelrod has joined me at Shadow Cabinet to discuss how we win and change Britain. pic.twitter.com/GvrYIPZ46Y
Poor old Ed...he's really not very photogenic is he?
"You should have got me over here two years ago. The public hate's your leader and it's too late to turn around people's perceptions of him. It's over guys. What you need to do is limit the defeat so your in with a shout in 2020."
0 -
I see that Eagles is tearing his feathers out in frustration this morning, because he can't actually strangle a kipper.0
-
Of course not. Their poll was a genuine result, but we'd need to have another one to see just how much of an outlier it was on ICM's methodology.MikeK said:
Surely you are not accusing them of underhand dealings?GIN1138 said:I wonder whether ICM will do another poll before next Thursday? I would imagine ICM would be keen to come up with something more "in-line" with other pollsters if they can?
0 -
The Conservative and Lib Dems on here are Dan Hodges to UKIPs Ed Miliband.. anything and everything that happens is BAD NEWS FOR UKIPanotherDave said:
What is it about that interview that you think UKIP supporters should find objectionable?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a lot for the Kippers to moan aboutMikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
Farage sells out to Cameron, principal agent of the EUSSR
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/farage-sells-out-to-cameron-principal-agent-of-the-eussr.html
http://order-order.com/2014/05/14/farage-id-do-a-deal-with-dave/
0 -
Because AFAIA they don't have anything else to talk about. The immigration/EU thing we get and they have been bludgeoned into caution when mentioning it.MikeSmithson said:Why is it that all Kippers seem able to do is moan.
So that leaves...well nothing yet.
Nothing on defense, health, transport, infrastructure.
Now is the time for some substance.
Not because I think a NOTA needs a fully blown manifesto but because their existing message is too narrow and too dangerous politically. Plus, as we have seen from NPXMP, pretty shamelessly IMO, they are open to have "policies" invented for them.
Come out with a fantasmagorical transport policy, HS3 to Mull, or even a flat tax (did they drop that?).
Then they can move if only slowly to greater acceptance by the mainstream.
And to further their reach, they also super totally need to lose the tone and content of their current campaign which to me appears thoroughly nasty and harks back to the bad old NF/BNP days.0 -
It's quite possible that he was the one attacked. The article says there was a scuffle by protesters.anotherDave said:
Crikey.volcanopete said:Ukip Deputy Leader of Hampshire CC held over assault charge.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/
0 -
Err no, I'm not a man prone to violence, only angry chaps like yourself that want to commit violence towards other people, me I prefer to take the piss out of them.MikeK said:I see that Eagles is tearing his feathers out in frustration this morning, because he can't actually strangle a kipper.
Lord knows you Kippers are providing me enough material.0 -
Well the government have done a decent amount of work on export guarantees and start up loans for small business that want to begin exporting goods and services, if they continue to make these small moves the dynamic will be completely different should an EMU crisis mk.II ever materialise.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. PB, cheers for that very interesting post.
I wonder how quickly and how far Euroland will decline, and the impact on the UK (both economically and politically).
How are plans for banking and fiscal integration coming along? I haven't heard anything about that for ages.
On that, nothing really. National governments don't want any kind of fiscal interference from the EU but they want it to stand behind any possible future bank bail outs. I don't see it getting any further than that. Countries like Italy and France specifically have said no to EU level oversight of national budgets and Germany have basically been saying they want it for everyone else, but not for their own budget.
The way I see it is that contributor nations should get a free pass and the ones who receive cash should have some level of budgetary oversight. If we are going to put money into their economy then it is fair to have some oversight. However, the EU hates dividing down that fault line of contributors/receivers because they know if they put all of us on the contributor side together it would get the ball rolling on the value for money question, on which the EU has always performed poorly.0 -
BTW that's dated 17 May 2014 in the original ... maybe that is why there are no comments under it ...Scott_P said:Here's a poser for the Nats.
An article written by Hugo Rifkind, London based sell-out, son of a Tory (a former Scottish Secretary under Thatcher no less), that they might actually agree with...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/hugo-rifkind/9206231/scotlands-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/
0 -
My dice analogy puts UKIP at 50%, Labour at 33% and the tories at 17% which makes us pretty much in agreement.MarkSenior said:
Agree , 1 freak poll putting them ahead has coloured Mike's judgment . UKIP 60% Lab 30% and Con 10% are my estimates .Pulpstar said:UKIP's chance is way over 40%. The Conservatives are NOT 30% to win.
The priority for the Lib Dems is surely not the Euro side show but keeping as many of their councillors and as much of their activist base as they can in the locals. Decades of hard work are being undermined by this minority position in the Coalition.
0 -
Pull the other claw, Eagle, it's got bells on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err no, I'm not a man prone to violence, only angry chaps like yourself that want to commit violence towards other people, me I prefer to take the piss out of them.MikeK said:I see that Eagles is tearing his feathers out in frustration this morning, because he can't actually strangle a kipper.
Lord knows you Kippers are providing me enough material.
0 -
Just a thought on people being photogenic or not......the picture editor gets the choice of the thousands taken. Buying them all a crate of whisky yearly might help improve your look?0
-
Oh, I don't know: that is 26% of the population with a direct interest in avoiding loony government interference that would screw up the market.OblitusSumMe said:Since 15 > 11 [and some of the 11 will be second-homes that are not rented out] that statistic can not explain why Miliband's rent reforms did not lead to a stunning 10-point Labour lead in the polls.
0 -
Ludicrous suggestion. The police have many faults but they aren't going to attend a crime and arrest the victim. What do you think they'd arrive at a murder scene and arrest the corpse ?!?MikeK said:
It's quite possible that he was the one attacked. The article says there was a scuffle by protesters.anotherDave said:
Crikey.volcanopete said:Ukip Deputy Leader of Hampshire CC held over assault charge.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/0 -
Got to leave you for some fresh air. Bye.0
-
Still no sign of a general election... another day closer to my GE2015 or later boat coming in ^_~0
-
Given that Neil Hamilton, now a senior bod at UKIP is welcoming former decent BNPers to UKIP, I wonder if he will welcome this chap, if he already hasn't?
From 2009
Councillor Pat Richardson, leader of the BNP group on the local council, said her party was not behind the attacks on Ramjanally. “Firebombing is not a British method. A brick through the window is a British method, but firebombing is not a way of showing displeasure,” she said.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/brick-through-window-is-british-way-says-bnp-councillor-15971.html0 -
Not ludicrous at all. Many's the time the police have done exactly that.ToryJim said:
Ludicrous suggestion. The police have many faults but they aren't going to attend a crime and arrest the victim. What do you think they'd arrive at a murder scene and arrest the corpse ?!?MikeK said:
It's quite possible that he was the one attacked. The article says there was a scuffle by protesters.anotherDave said:
Crikey.volcanopete said:Ukip Deputy Leader of Hampshire CC held over assault charge.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11215174._/
0 -
Who is that with?Pulpstar said:Still no sign of a general election... another day closer to my GE2015 or later boat coming in ^_~
0 -
"Annual housing starts totalled 133,650 in the 12 months to March 2014, up by 31% compared with the year before."
Good start - shame it would need to rise something like 31% each year for the entire term of the next parliament to reach a sustainable level of housing supply.0 -
Haha Only a 1/9 shot mate - sorry bit of overramping on a bet thereanotherDave said:
Who is that with?Pulpstar said:Still no sign of a general election... another day closer to my GE2015 or later boat coming in ^_~
It's with Hills, Tissue Price reckons its value though. I'm in for a hundred on it anyway.0 -
Oblitus,
"That is basically what most Climate Scientists said about 30-35 years ago."
Because that was a scientific-type view. I've noticed in the last few years a tendency for some scientists to take a position and then defend that position. No one's immune from that and I was guilty sometimes too,
As Feynman said ... "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."
I would substitute "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If your predictions don't come to pass, its wrong." Until the Global Warming scientists can make a prediction that is testable and has been tested, it's remains a theory only.0 -
If we start referring to the UKIP youth wing as "Kipper Youth", will Kippers get upset that this sounds too much like another youth movement from the 1930s?0
-
The 1/9 was with Hills but they have now pulled the market. Something Changed.Pulpstar said:Haha Only a 1/9 shot mate - sorry bit of overramping on a bet there
You can still back 1/14 with the Mis-Shapes (Betfred, Paddy Power, Coral).
0 -
Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.0 -
It's not often that you find an inconsistency like this in Shadsy's odds:
GB Vote Share: Greens and LibDems both on 1.83 over/under 8.0%
GB Vote Share match bet: LD 1.5, Green 2.5
Hard to see how all three markets can be right - so which is wrong?0 -
@Grandiose
Property prices must remain high, otherwise our banks become underfunded.
The free market (with some sensible modifications of course)0 -
There were comments by Balls in the FT I referred to yesterday explaining that Labour would (could?) not win as an anti business party. Quite right but as PMQs showed yesterday his boss is not listening.ToryJim said:Hmm this could be intriguing
http://order-order.com/2014/05/15/the-balls-offensive/
I think Mr Balls is getting somewhat frustrated.
0 -
Very theoretically they could all be right, with non-normal distributions of votes. However in practice something is wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not often that you find an inconsistency like this in Shadsy's odds:
GB Vote: Greens and LibDems both on 1.83 over/under 8.0%
GB Vote Share match bet: LD 1.5, Green 2.5
Hard to see how all three markets can be right - so which is wrong?
I almost can't believe my own conclusion, but I think Green 2.5 may be the wrong price.0 -
I think the right wing press were sympathetic to UKIP so long as they could be used to put pressure on Cameron to tack rightwards. Now that UKIP has the potential to do real damage to the Conservatives, they've turned more hostile. It's certainly been interesting seeing papers like the Mail and Sun criticising UKIP for attitudes towards towards immigration and homosexuality that are frequently expressed by their own columnists and editors.OblitusSumMe said:
I thought the Express was the paper batting for UKIP?isam said:Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title...
0 -
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.0 -
Just received yet another email from The Tories/Dave, my point from the other day stands.
The Tories have really upped their game for these elections.0 -
Mr. PB, cheers for that response.
It sounds like Machiavelli was right. A confederation of states has a maximum size of 4-6 before it becomes too unwieldy to be worth the effort.
Bickering and bureaucracy will paralyse the EU, it'll have another crisis, and people might just consider that the euro is the problem.
Mr. Anorak, Clegg can **** off with such claims. Of course, it hasn't lost him my vote as I'd never vote for a slavishly pro-EU party anyway, but if I were in a constituency where tactical voting could unseat a Lib Dem his utterances might encourage me to vote that way.0 -
Agreed, wrapping oneself in the flag is an appeal to the lowest common denominator and a (usually baseless) smear of one's opponents.TheScreamingEagles said:
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.
It's hardly going to lose him votes from his current position, though. I'm surprised there are that many geography teachers in the UK.0 -
Nope, not even a theory but a hypothesis.CD13 said:Oblitus,
"That is basically what most Climate Scientists said about 30-35 years ago."
Because that was a scientific-type view. I've noticed in the last few years a tendency for some scientists to take a position and then defend that position. No one's immune from that and I was guilty sometimes too,
As Feynman said ... "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."
I would substitute "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If your predictions don't come to pass, its wrong." Until the Global Warming scientists can make a prediction that is testable and has been tested, it's remains a theory only.0 -
On topic, can anybody answer?
If UKIP are being over estimated because of the lack of a prompt for the Greens in the EU pols, surely it follows that Westminster VI polls that do not prompt for UKIP (most of them?) lead to inflated scores for the other parties?
0 -
And yet it is the Guardian and Independent who both have front page stories today attacking UKIP - an ex Labour immigration minister on the Beeb calling UKIP racist and left wing anti-fascist heckling Farage along the length of his campaign tour -Sean_F said:
I think the right wing press were sympathetic to UKIP so long as they could be used to put pressure on Cameron to tack rightwards. Now that UKIP has the potential to do real damage to the Conservatives, they've turned more hostile. It's certainly been interesting seeing papers like the Mail and Sun criticising UKIP for attitudes towards towards immigration and homosexuality that are frequently expressed by their own columnists and editors.OblitusSumMe said:
I thought the Express was the paper batting for UKIP?isam said:Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title...
Do you really think everything is down to a Tory lead 'right wing media' campaign?0 -
@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L0
-
Didn't we have this yesterday?Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
0 -
He made the claims in an email, sent to Brent council planners, which accused the Afghan community of ignoring the refusal of planning permission by building an extension to a cultural centre in Church Road, Willesden, and changing its use.Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
Is that true?0 -
Oblitus,
When I speak about a prediction, I mean one that hasn't got a 50% chance of happening anyway. For example, "I predict the earth will get warmer." Now it will not stay exactly the same so that has a 50% chance of being correct. In the same way, if my theory is that all coins are double-headed and I toss one coin and it turns up heads, that doesn't make my prediction correct .
When you can predict exactly what temperature increase you'll get from a specific carbon dioxide level increase, I will hold my hands up. The climate scientists may be correct but it's not proven.0 -
Mr Bond,
"Nope, not even a theory but a hypothesis."
And I thought I was being picky.0 -
Is that the story about the German who wrote to his council complaining about the corner shop that was being illegally used as a mosque?Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
And the council leaked the emails to The Guardian?
"Can you please explain to me and my fellow community members, how you can allow a general purpose shop to refuse entry to customers on the grounds of religion, race and attire? Is that the way you intend to promote the community cohesion you always bang on about whenever it suits you?" wrote Mr Vockrodt.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/13/guardian-bully-tactics-against-ukip-councillor
0 -
"It was wrong to think that unemployment was "a price worth paying" in return for leaving the bloc, he said."TheScreamingEagles said:
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Despite taking a particular interest in the issue, I have never heard a eurosceptic make this argument. He is deliberately lying about what the other side's opinion is. Nick Clegg is really trashing his reputation for honesty over this issue. It's amazing how willing europhiles are to scrape the barrel in their tactics over the EU.0 -
That's what one would expect from the left wing press. Until recently, the right wing press would generally have come to UKIP's defence.SimonStClare said:
And yet it is the Guardian and Independent who both have front page stories today attacking UKIP - an ex Labour immigration minister on the Beeb calling UKIP racist and left wing anti-fascist heckling Farage along the length of his campaign tour -Sean_F said:
I think the right wing press were sympathetic to UKIP so long as they could be used to put pressure on Cameron to tack rightwards. Now that UKIP has the potential to do real damage to the Conservatives, they've turned more hostile. It's certainly been interesting seeing papers like the Mail and Sun criticising UKIP for attitudes towards towards immigration and homosexuality that are frequently expressed by their own columnists and editors.OblitusSumMe said:
I thought the Express was the paper batting for UKIP?isam said:Mr Farage cannot boast a single national title...
Do you really think everything is down to a Tory lead 'right wing media' campaign?
0 -
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/13/guardian-bully-tactics-against-ukip-councillorSocrates said:
He made the claims in an email, sent to Brent council planners, which accused the Afghan community of ignoring the refusal of planning permission by building an extension to a cultural centre in Church Road, Willesden, and changing its use.Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
Is that true?0 -
Whether or not it's true is the issue that matters, in this story.Socrates said:
He made the claims in an email, sent to Brent council planners, which accused the Afghan community of ignoring the refusal of planning permission by building an extension to a cultural centre in Church Road, Willesden, and changing its use.Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
Is that true?0 -
Scott_P said:
@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
An attack on Muslims as a group is surely being religionist rather than racist. Followers of Islam come from many races.
0 -
Looks like Tories are attracting more donations than Labour £6.6m to £4.4. SNP received another £1m from the lotto winners. LibDems notched up £1m and UKIP less the 500k. Interesting.0
-
And this bit, from isam's link: "It is unclear how Mr Muir received the e-mails, however if it transpires that the communications were indeed leaked by Brent Council representatives, this would constitute a breach of the Data Protection Act."Sean_F said:
Whether or not it's true is the issue that matters, in this story.Socrates said:
He made the claims in an email, sent to Brent council planners, which accused the Afghan community of ignoring the refusal of planning permission by building an extension to a cultural centre in Church Road, Willesden, and changing its use.Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
Is that true?
I don't really like Breitbart, but it's a reasonable question.0 -
I agree and I have bet accordingly.Tissue_Price said:
Very theoretically they could all be right, with non-normal distributions of votes. However in practice something is wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not often that you find an inconsistency like this in Shadsy's odds:
GB Vote: Greens and LibDems both on 1.83 over/under 8.0%
GB Vote Share match bet: LD 1.5, Green 2.5
Hard to see how all three markets can be right - so which is wrong?
I almost can't believe my own conclusion, but I think Green 2.5 may be the wrong price.0 -
I also question how the guy with the south Asian wife is supposed to be "racist" against south Asian people?0
-
Sean_F said:
Whether or not it's true is the issue that matters, in this story.Socrates said:
He made the claims in an email, sent to Brent council planners, which accused the Afghan community of ignoring the refusal of planning permission by building an extension to a cultural centre in Church Road, Willesden, and changing its use.Scott_P said:@standardnews: Ukip candidate sparks fresh racism row in north London with email attack on Muslims http://t.co/8OZaZsld0L
Is that true?
http://lawandfreedomfoundation.org/2012/12/26/santa-brings-us-another-win/
0 -
Malcolm Tucker still got a bit of catching up to do in the brutality stakes (the guy in the suit is a spad to Erdogan).
Retweeted by alex thomson
Volkan&IşıL @StrikerNwitcH 28 mins
@AyjayH @alextomo new pics...http://tinyurl.com/m2k98230 -
I'm a private renter and I don't want to be forced into a 3 year contract by Mr Miliband (I realise there is talk of a get out clause). I like the flexibility of renting and would much rather have something shorter. I think I should be able to make whatever rental agreement I like with my landlord without the Government sticking its nose in.OblitusSumMe said:
Er, but 15% of the population rent from a private landlord - 2011 census.TGOHF said:Reason why Ed's landlord bashing went down badly ?
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3m
11% of people have a second home?Incredible stat http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-3/2010-2012/sty-facts-about-household-wealth.html …
Since 15 > 11 [and some of the 11 will be second-homes that are not rented out] that statistic can not explain why Miliband's rent reforms did not lead to a stunning 10-point Labour lead in the polls.
0 -
'Theory' is a curious word, in the general usage it means essentially an idea. eg Rod Crosby's swingback theory.CD13 said:Oblitus,
"That is basically what most Climate Scientists said about 30-35 years ago."
Because that was a scientific-type view. I've noticed in the last few years a tendency for some scientists to take a position and then defend that position. No one's immune from that and I was guilty sometimes too,
As Feynman said ... "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."
I would substitute "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If your predictions don't come to pass, its wrong." Until the Global Warming scientists can make a prediction that is testable and has been tested, it's remains a theory only.
However in the scientific method, theory means something much more. It has passed beyond hypothesis, it has been accepted as the best explanation.
A more succinct description:
"When used in non-scientific context, the word “theory” implies that something is unproven or speculative. As used in science, however, a theory is an explanation or model based on observation, experimentation, and reasoning, especially one that has been tested and confirmed as a general principle helping to explain and predict natural phenomena."0 -
Although, anyone who doesn't vote Tory next week is a traitorous pig-dog who deserves to be locked in a dis-used fridge with Katie Price and a horny Honey Badger.Anorak said:
Agreed, wrapping oneself in the flag is an appeal to the lowest common denominator and a (usually baseless) smear of one's opponents.TheScreamingEagles said:
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.
It's hardly going to lose him votes from his current position, though. I'm surprised there are that many geography teachers in the UK.0 -
That's correct, as far as it goes. The argument for not prompting for UKIP is that in practice the small parties tend to get squeezed at Westminster elections, so the two wrongs cancel each other out and make a right.isam said:On topic, can anybody answer?
If UKIP are being over estimated because of the lack of a prompt for the Greens in the EU pols, surely it follows that Westminster VI polls that do not prompt for UKIP (most of them?) lead to inflated scores for the other parties?
The arguments against doing this would be:
1) Even if the logic is right and UKIP will get squeezed, arguably the polls should be polling what people are saying now, rather than sticking their thumb on the scale based on the way the pollster thinks they'll change their mind later.
2) We don't know for sure that Farage will get squeezed out in the campaign. The opposite may happen, especially if he manages to get into the debates. Also the LibDems have historically tended to increase their share as the election approaches, so if UKIP are now the default "sick of the main parties hurling their own feces at each other" vote they may actually gain in the campaign.0 -
I agree with you.Tissue_Price said:
Very theoretically they could all be right, with non-normal distributions of votes. However in practice something is wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:It's not often that you find an inconsistency like this in Shadsy's odds:
GB Vote: Greens and LibDems both on 1.83 over/under 8.0%
GB Vote Share match bet: LD 1.5, Green 2.5
Hard to see how all three markets can be right - so which is wrong?
I almost can't believe my own conclusion, but I think Green 2.5 may be the wrong price.
0 -
Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27424064
0 -
Incidentally, it's worth considering that the council in this question was the one mentioned here:
Ann John is reading aloud from some of the letters she received after first speaking out against female genital mutilation in London. “Twisted mutilated bwana… the champion of patronising African people… colonialist missionary… she thinks she know what is best for Africans.” In other correspondence she is accused of being on drugs, of “sleeping with a number of African men” and threatened with mutilation herself.
Today, 21 years after receiving the letters, John can talk about them without emotion, but at the time they were written — in the early Nineties — they were a huge shock to a councillor new to local politics and just starting out at Brent council.
What provoked such anger? The fact she opposed a proposal to make female genital mutilation legal in Brent.
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/ann-john-i-was-branded-a-colonialist-for-fighting-against-barbaric-fgm-9220777.html0 -
@Garethofthevale
The proposal covers your sort of agreement, the three years thing is assumed only as a "default" position
0 -
It can be argued that a Westminster election is different from a European election, because of the relative turnouts and growth of smaller parties. So different methodologies maybe apt.isam said:On topic, can anybody answer?
If UKIP are being over estimated because of the lack of a prompt for the Greens in the EU pols, surely it follows that Westminster VI polls that do not prompt for UKIP (most of them?) lead to inflated scores for the other parties?
Look at Corporeal's piece here
The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline.http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/27/the-minor-parties-a-quiet-consolidation/0 -
IncredibleAnorak said:Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-274240640 -
Mr. Anorak, that's mental (and sadly unsurprising). Some cultures are just barbaric.0
-
Very depressing. It reinforces my loathing for organised religion of all forms.Anorak said:Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27424064
0 -
I see the Tories have already won according to Gin!0
-
Paddy Power Politics @pppolitics 56s
Odds of a Tory win in #Newark shorten again to 1/3. UKIP and Labour not down and out yet, 4/1 and 5/1 respectively pic.twitter.com/UhUJ6IWlLJ0 -
If the parties can agree on tenancy agreements to run for less than three years what is the point of this policy?Smarmeron said:@Garethofthevale
The proposal covers your sort of agreement, the three years thing is assumed only as a "default" position0 -
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 35s
Paddy Power: every bet of £100 or more placed in Scotland has been on Yes to independence to win, while every £100 bet in England on No0 -
@JohnRentoul: Paddy Power: every bet of £100 or more placed in Scotland has been on Yes to independence to win, while every £100 bet in England on No0
-
Oblitus,
I do know the difference between theory and hypothesis (all good pedants do, and I am one too),
I'm probably being unfair to climate scientists; we all tend to "like" certain "theories", but as Thomas Huxley correctly said ... "The great tragedy of Science — the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact."
I'm happy to call Global Warming a theory for the time being. They used to call the Phlogiston hypothesis a theory though.
But why do we end up with politics rather than science?0 -
Huzzah
UK named number one country in Europe for LGBTI rights
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/uk-named-number-one-country-in-europe-for-lgbti-rights-9375566.html0 -
Why do they bother prompting for anyone? I dont get it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It can be argued that a Westminster election is different from a European election, because of the relative turnouts and growth of smaller parties. So different methodologies maybe apt.isam said:On topic, can anybody answer?
If UKIP are being over estimated because of the lack of a prompt for the Greens in the EU pols, surely it follows that Westminster VI polls that do not prompt for UKIP (most of them?) lead to inflated scores for the other parties?
Look at Corporeal's piece here
The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline.http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/27/the-minor-parties-a-quiet-consolidation/0 -
ToryJim
It would be fascinating to see all the Gods and Prophets swapping their tomes, and wondering how people contorted what they were trying to say into the shambles of modern religion.
0 -
IIRC - One of the pollsters last year said, unprompting for the major parties leads to higher DNK/WNV than normalisam said:
Why do they bother prompting for anyone? I dont get it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It can be argued that a Westminster election is different from a European election, because of the relative turnouts and growth of smaller parties. So different methodologies maybe apt.isam said:On topic, can anybody answer?
If UKIP are being over estimated because of the lack of a prompt for the Greens in the EU pols, surely it follows that Westminster VI polls that do not prompt for UKIP (most of them?) lead to inflated scores for the other parties?
Look at Corporeal's piece here
The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline.http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/27/the-minor-parties-a-quiet-consolidation/0 -
But it isnt organised religions of all forms, its a particular one.ToryJim said:
Very depressing. It reinforces my loathing for organised religion of all forms.Anorak said:Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-274240640 -
Some people might even enjoy that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Although, anyone who doesn't vote Tory next week is a traitorous pig-dog who deserves to be locked in a dis-used fridge with Katie Price and a horny Honey Badger.Anorak said:
Agreed, wrapping oneself in the flag is an appeal to the lowest common denominator and a (usually baseless) smear of one's opponents.TheScreamingEagles said:
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.
It's hardly going to lose him votes from his current position, though. I'm surprised there are that many geography teachers in the UK.
0 -
No. They are all pretty much bankrupt and have zero cash for polling.anotherDave said:
Are any of the Scottish newspapers likely to commission another Scotland-only EU Parliament poll before the election?Stuart_Dickson said:Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
(+/- change from EP election 2009)
SNP 40% (+11)
Con 22% (+5)
Lab 16% (-5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Grn 7% (n/c)
LD 5% (-7)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf
That would result in a seat distribution of:
SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
Con 2 MEPs (+1)
Lab 1 MEP (-1)
LD 0 MEPs (-1)
This ComRes poll showing Scottish Labour on just 16%, behind the Scottish Tories, is likely to be our last hint of the state of play. And remember, vast numbers of voters have already cast their votes, so to a large extent this ComRes is actually an exit poll.0 -
Modern religion is blighted by a surfeit of belief and a deficit of understanding.Smarmeron said:ToryJim
It would be fascinating to see all the Gods and Prophets swapping their tomes, and wondering how people contorted what they were trying to say into the shambles of modern religion.0 -
Interesting point. ComRes don't distinguish between those who have voted and those who have not?Stuart_Dickson said:
No. They are all pretty much bankrupt and have zero cash for polling.anotherDave said:
Are any of the Scottish newspapers likely to commission another Scotland-only EU Parliament poll before the election?Stuart_Dickson said:Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
(+/- change from EP election 2009)
SNP 40% (+11)
Con 22% (+5)
Lab 16% (-5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Grn 7% (n/c)
LD 5% (-7)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf
That would result in a seat distribution of:
SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
Con 2 MEPs (+1)
Lab 1 MEP (-1)
LD 0 MEPs (-1)
This ComRes poll showing Scottish Labour on just 16%, behind the Scottish Tories, is likely to be our last hint of the state of play. And remember, vast numbers of voters have already cast their votes, so to a large extent this ComRes is actually an exit poll.0 -
Religious faith of any type is a cancer. Depressing in the modern world.ToryJim said:
Modern religion is blighted by a surfeit of belief and a deficit of understanding.Smarmeron said:ToryJim
It would be fascinating to see all the Gods and Prophets swapping their tomes, and wondering how people contorted what they were trying to say into the shambles of modern religion.0 -
Absolutely excellent. I'm sure the Helmersaurus and Faragiraptor hate it.TheScreamingEagles said:Huzzah
UK named number one country in Europe for LGBTI rights
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/uk-named-number-one-country-in-europe-for-lgbti-rights-9375566.html0 -
Those people don't deserve the vote.Sean_F said:
Some people might even enjoy that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Although, anyone who doesn't vote Tory next week is a traitorous pig-dog who deserves to be locked in a dis-used fridge with Katie Price and a horny Honey Badger.Anorak said:
Agreed, wrapping oneself in the flag is an appeal to the lowest common denominator and a (usually baseless) smear of one's opponents.TheScreamingEagles said:
I get just as irked when Eurosceptics say pro-Europeans are unpatriotic etc.Anorak said:Clegg needs a new dictionary.
Eurosceptics are "deeply unpatriotic", apparently. I'd guess many of them would vehemently disagree.
Patriotism, the last refuge of the scoundrel.
It's hardly going to lose him votes from his current position, though. I'm surprised there are that many geography teachers in the UK.0 -
GRN tightening in the Euro GB Vote Share Match Bet market over at Ladbrokes.
Lib Dems 8/15 (from 1/2)
Greens 11/8 (from 6/4)0 -
All religions have their sickness. The morally bankrupt Catholics, the filth that hide behind God in America etc etc etc.notme said:
But it isnt organised religions of all forms, its a particular one.ToryJim said:
Very depressing. It reinforces my loathing for organised religion of all forms.Anorak said:Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-274240640 -
Mr. Jim, don't use dinosaurs as insults. They were very intelligent and interesting animals.
Even if velociraptor was about the size of a chicken.0 -
-
There are even a few less than pleasant atheists in the world (hard as it may be to believe).dyedwoolie said:
All religions have their sickness. The morally bankrupt Catholics, the filth that hide behind God in America etc etc etc.notme said:
But it isnt organised religions of all forms, its a particular one.ToryJim said:
Very depressing. It reinforces my loathing for organised religion of all forms.Anorak said:Depressing. Sudanese court sentences woman raised as a christian to death, because her (absent) father was a muslim, and she wont recant her christianity. She also gets 100 lashes for adultery as her marriage to another christian is not recognised under islamic law.
The woman is 8 months pregnant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27424064
0 -
Its not religion or even islam that is a problem its political islam that is the problem . Unfortunately many countries are disgustingly incorporating sharia into their laws like Brunei (boycott the Dorchester please everyone). All countries that have sharia criminal law are disgusting and even in the UK we depressingly have incorporated sharia into some civil legal cases . Even if criminal sharia law wasn't barbaric and sick then to base a legal system on a 1500 year old book is disturbingToryJim said:
Modern religion is blighted by a surfeit of belief and a deficit of understanding.Smarmeron said:ToryJim
It would be fascinating to see all the Gods and Prophets swapping their tomes, and wondering how people contorted what they were trying to say into the shambles of modern religion.0
